The Past, Present, and Future of The Past, Present, and Future of MichiganMichigan’’s Weathers Weather

Dr. Jeff MastersDr. Jeff MastersDirector of Meteorology Director of Meteorology The Weather Underground, Inc.The Weather Underground, Inc.http://www.wunderground.comhttp://www.wunderground.com

Education: Education: University of MichiganUniversity of Michigan

B.S. in Meteorology, 1982B.S. in Meteorology, 1982

M.S. in Meteorology, 1983M.S. in Meteorology, 1983 Thesis:Thesis: ““A Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime AerosolA Characterization of the Detroit Wintertime Aerosol””

Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Ph.D. in Meteorology, 1997 Thesis: Thesis: ““Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Vertical Transport of Carbon Monoxide by Wintertime Mid-Latitude CyclonesWintertime Mid-Latitude Cyclones””

Me

Served as Flight Meteorologist for NOAAServed as Flight Meteorologist for NOAA’’ssAircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990Aircraft Operations Center, 1986 - 1990

•Correction of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 AircraftCorrection of Inertial Navigation with Loran-C on NOAA's P-3 Aircraft•A Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane GilbertA Record Minimum Sea Level Pressure Observed in Hurricane Gilbert•Wind Measurement From AircraftWind Measurement From Aircraft•Flying Into the Eye of a HurricaneFlying Into the Eye of a Hurricane•Meteorology at BrockportMeteorology at Brockport

Publications:Publications:

Hurricane Hugo on MontserratHurricane Hugo on Montserrat

Hurricane Hugo on St. Croix and Puerto RicoHurricane Hugo on St. Croix and Puerto Rico

El Yunque Rain Forest, Puerto RicoEl Yunque Rain Forest, Puerto Rico

Sullivan’s Island Bridge, South CarolinaSullivan’s Island Bridge, South Carolina

My Hurricane Hugo flight: http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.aspMy Hurricane Hugo flight: http://www.wunderground.com/education/hugo1.asp

Low water at Old Mission Lighthouse, Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan, 2003

Arctic Sea Ice Loss: A Potential Culprit in Recent Weather Extremes

Borden and Cutter, 2008

Rank Disaster Year Deaths Damage (2007 dollars)

1. Hurricane Katrina, LA/MS/AL/FL 2005 1200 $133,800,000,000

2. Drought, Midwest/East 1988 7,500 $71,200,000,000

3. Drought, Midwest/ 1980 10,000 $55,400,000,000

4. Hurricane Andrew, FL/LA 1992 26 $40,000,000,000

5. Flood, Mississippi River 1993 48 $30,200,000,000

6. Hurricane Ike, TX/LA/MS 2008 112 $27,000,000,000

7. Hurricane Wilma, FL 2005 35 $17,100,000,000

8. Hurricane Rita, LA/TX 2005 119 $17,100,000,000

9. Hurricane Charley, FL 2004 15 $16,322,000,000

10. Flood, Mississippi River 2008 24 $15,000,000,000

11. Hurricane Ivan, FL/AL 2004 57 $15,400,000,000

12. Drought, 30-State 2002 0 $11,400,000,000

13. Tornado Outbreak, Southeast U.S. 2012 321 $10,200,000,000

14. Drought, Texas 2012 0 $10,000,000,000

The Fourteen $10 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980The Fourteen $10 billion+ U.S. Weather Disasters Since 1980

1980 Drought: 10,000 killed, $55 billion in damage

1988 Drought: 7,500 killed, $71 billion in damage

Dust Bowl Drought: 5,000 killed, 2.5 million people displaced

The future of drought, 30 years from now?

Sleeping outside on Belle Isle, 1936 heat wave

Expect a Much Increased Chance of Deadly Heat WavesExpect a Much Increased Chance of Deadly Heat Waves

A $100 billion, 1-in-100-year U.S. droughtwould seriously strain world food prices

The Future of TornadoesThe Future of Tornadoes

The Number #1 Natural Disaster Threat in The Number #1 Natural Disaster Threat in Michigan: a Catastrophic Geomagnetic StormMichigan: a Catastrophic Geomagnetic StormProbability: 26% in the next 30 yearsProbability: 26% in the next 30 years

X-22 Class Solar Flare of April 2, 2001—Strongest Solar Flare on RecordX-22 Class Solar Flare of April 2, 2001—Strongest Solar Flare on Record

Transformer at Salem Nuclear PlantTransformer at Salem Nuclear Plantfried by geomagnetic storm in 1989fried by geomagnetic storm in 1989

A geomagnetic storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 or the 1921 storm A geomagnetic storm like the Carrington Event of 1859 or the 1921 storm would likely cause a collapse of the U.S. power system lasting yearswould likely cause a collapse of the U.S. power system lasting years

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Thanks for listening!