Upload
lekhanh
View
218
Download
5
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Dipartimento Energia
THE PARADOX OF THE WORLD ENERGY
QUESTION A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL AND SYSTEMIC THINKING ABOUT THE GLOBAL
ENERGY CHALLENGE
PIERLUIGI LEONE
HTTPS://WWW.POK.POLIMI.IT/
B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016
Dipartimento Energia
Objective
Understanding complexity of the energy
challenge and its multi-dimensional nature
Understanding the framework for technical
studies
Contextualize your knowledge in a wider
framework
Reflect upon the role of engineers in future
society
The lecture in 3 slides…
Current global exergy usage ~ 15 TW (0.5 ZJ per year)
W.Hermann, Stanford University, Global Carbon and Energy Project
The lecture in 3 slides…
NASA/NOAA 1972 and 2012
The lecture in 3 slides…
Vision
Energy: a paradoxical question
Civilization crisis - the human root of the energy question
The energy transition as a pillar of the sustainability quest
Humankind at the center of the next energy transition
Summary
Part I - Energy as a multi-dimensional issue
Part II – Understanding the energy transition – the role of technology
Energy units and scales
Units Activity
PART I. ENERGY AS A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL
ISSUE
B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016
The Earth and its inhabitants
Hadean Eon
Turbulent childhood of the Earth-Moon system, Le Scienze, 30 Luglio 2014
Paleoclimate evolution
Snowball Earth – Second big extinction around
650 millions ago
Geologic Time Spiral
U.S. Geological Survey
The Big Five
L..Alvarez, W..Alvarez, F. Asaro, H.V. Michel, Extraterrestrial cause for the cretaceous-tertiary extinction, Science, 1980
PART I. ENERGY AS A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL
ISSUE – PLANETARY ENERGETICS
B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016
Milky Way Galaxy
SUN
Solar radiation spectrum
Sun-Earth interaction
Sun-Earth interaction
Earth energy budget
Atmospheric Science Data Center of NASA
Greenhouse effect
Svante August Arrhenius,
1859-1927
Global energy balance
Water cycle
45000 TW
85 W/m2
Air kinetic
3500 TW
7 W/m2
Waves
1000 TW
3 W/m2
Photosynthesis
63 TW
0.5 W/m2
Endogeneous flux
42 TW
0.08 W/m2
Water and air
heating
87000 TW
171 W/m2
Reflected
52000 TW
102 W/m2
Tides
3 TW
0.008 W/m2
PART I. ENERGY AS A MULTI-DIMENTIONAL
ISSUE – LIVING ORGANISMS
B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016
Living organisms
“All complex life on this planet, all its incredible diversity, all our hopes and
worries, are but transmutations of the Sun’s light, and photosynthesis is the
agent of this miracle.
Absorption of sunlight and the subsequent sequence of photochemical and
thermochemical reactions in the chloroplasts of photosynthesizing bacteria
and green plants are the most important energy conversions on the Earth.
Plants provide all our food (directly or after being eaten from animals) ;
their immediate harvest (as wood or crop residues) or the extraction of their
fossilized remains (as coal or hydrocarbons) supply all our fuels.
All the richness of the etherotrophic life and all the intricacies of human
civilizations are thus energized by photosynthesis.”
V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems
The MIT press 2007.
Trophic chain
•Photosynthesis efficiency:1-5%
•Biomass-to-biomass conversion
efficiency in animals: ~4%
•Rarely, trophic chains have more
than 5 links
Vegatables
Calvin-Benson cycle – the role of ATP
Animals
Glucose
Pyruvate
Animals’ metabolism – the role of ATP
Basic metabolic rate
Physical activity level
Eadweard Muybridge, 1830 – 1904
Elaboration from V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems The MIT press 2007.
PART I. ENERGY AS A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL
ISSUE – HUMAN SOCIETIES
B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016
Watersheds in energy use
Time
Agriculture
Around 10 thousands years ago Population: 10 milioni
Industrialization
1750 d.C. Population: 800 millions
Today Population: 7 billions
What transition?
Watershed in energy use
Hunters and gatheres Farmers
Farmers Worker
VIII a.C.
XVIII
The original footprint
Cueva de las Manos , Santa Cruz, Argentina, 9.300 -13.000 years ago
Innovation in agricalture
Animali
Weigth (kg) Towing
capacity
(kg)
Nomical
velocity
(m/s)
Power
(W) Medium Big
Horses 350-700 800-100 50-80 0,9-0,11 500-850
Mule 350-500 500-600 50-60 0,9-0,10 500-600
Oxen 350-700 800-950 40-70 0,6-0,8 250-550
Cow 200-400 500-600 20-40 0,6-0,7 100-300
Buffalo 300-600 600-700 30-60 0,8-0,9 250-550
Donkey 200-300 300-350 15-30 0,6-0,7 100-200
Elaboration from V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems The MIT press 2007.
Horses
Horses
Donkey
Bison
Innovation in agricalture
Product tH20/tprod
Wheat 1500
Rice 900
Corn 600
Elaboration from V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems The MIT press 2007.
First engines: human power
Improvements in efficiency to use musclar and animal force:
•wheels
• levers
• gear
•pulley
V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems The MIT press 2007.
Energy output in agriculture
Population Products Work input (hours) Energy return
Southeast Asia Tuber 2 000-2 500 15-20
Southeast Asia Rice 2 800-3 200 15-20
Western Africa Millet 8 000-1 200 10-20
Central america Corn 6 000-1 000 24-50
North america Corn 600-800 25-30
Elaboration from V.Smil, Energy in Nature and Society: General Energetics of Complex Systems The MIT press 2007.
Age of synergy
V.Smil, Creating the Twentieth Century Technical Innovations of 1867-1914 and Their Lasting Impact, Oxford University press 2005.
Cross section of Edison’s New York station
(thermal capacity, 93 MW)
completed in 1902.
Cover of the first catalog published
by Benz & Cie. in 1888
Bessemer converter in operation at
John Brown & Co. Foundry
1-MW-capacity Parsons’s
steam turbine designed in
1899.
Human revolution
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
-50000 -8000 1 1200 1650 1750 1850 1900 1950 1995 2011
Pop
ula
tion
(b
illi
on
s)
Livestock and
agriculture in the
Middle East and
Plows, water
wheels, Roman
aqueducts
(300 a.C - 1 d.C)
Introduction of
windmills;
Cathedrals (Europe)
Steam engine
Coal mining
(England)
Hydraulic and
steam turbine
(Francis-Parson);
Lighting;
Internal
combustion engine
Oil drilling (1877, Texas);
coal and oil introduction;
assembly line (1913,
Ford)
Gas turbine and
nuclear energy
GHGs at 400
ppm
Hunters and
gatheres
Primary energy use from
industrial revolution
Global Energy assessment, IIASA, 2012
Human history in numbers…
96,1%
3,8% 0,1%
12%
68%
20% Paleolithic
Neolitich
Modern
Duration Total humans lived (total – 82 billion)
Energy uses
0.22 toe/capita – ~6,000,000 population –Paleolithic → 0,05 EJ
0.45 toe/capita – ~50,000,000 population - Neolithic → 1 EJ
20-fold increase in world energy consumption
0.45 toe/capita – ~50,000,000 population – Neolithic → 1 EJ
1.8 toe/capita – ~7,300,000,000 population – Neolithic → 550
EJ
500-fold increase in world energy consumption
PART I. ENERGY AS A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL
ISSUE – THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
B.E.S.T Spring Course 2016 Stairway TO Energy – Torino, May 2nd 2016
A multi-dimensional issue
Resources
Land
En
vir
on
men
t
Water Pollution
Air Pollution
Planetary
cycle
Bio
div
ers
ity
Progress
Growth
Eco
no
my
Development
Global
Gender
Just
ice
Material issues
Imm
ate
rial
issu
es
Environment
Boat cemetery, Muynak – Aral sea, Uzbekistan, 2013
Photocredits, Pierluigi Leone
Environment
II Law of thermodynamics
Major planetary cycles: water
Sourced from USGS
Major planetary cycles: water
Water- Ramses Morales Izquierdo
Major planetary cycles: water
Sourced from USGS
Major planetary cycles: carbon
= 15 billion tons go out
Ocean Land Biosphere
Fossil Fuel
Burning & Industrial
Processes
30+
3000 billion tons CO2 15+ billion
tons go in billion tons added
every year
~7 + ~8 Revised version of the original cartoon in the lecture notes by Prof. Robert Socolow
within the course “Living in a Greenhouse: Technology and Policy”. (Princeton
University, Fall 2010)
Major planetary cycles: carbon
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007
Major planetary cycles: nitrogen
Nicolas Gruber & James N. Galloway, An Earth-system perspective of the global nitrogen cycle, NATURE, 2008.
Climate change
Harold Clayton Urey
(1893-1981). A
pioneering work on
isotopes earned him the
Nobel Prize in Chemistry
William Frank Libby (1908-
1980). Nobel prize in
chemistry in 1960 for
radiocarbon dating
Willi Dansgaard (1922-2011).
Danich paleoclimatologist
Archives of the Earth
Gabrielle Walker, Frozen time, Nature, 2004.
Archives of the Earth
Measure of climate change
Carbon dioxide and other compounds, methane (CH4), nitrogen oxide
N2O and CFCs
Gas Concentration GWP (100
years)
Residence time
in atmosphere
(years)
Radiative
forcing (W/m2)
CO2 383 ppm 1 Variable (5-200) 1.66
CH4 ≈1800 ppb 21 12 0.5
N2O ≈319 ppb 310 114 0.16
CFC ≈1 ppb 140-10000 5-250 0.34
Global warming potential - GWP-
Radiative forcing –RF –
Some recent figures about climate change Pre-industrial: 280 ± 10 ppm
Actual: ≈ 400.21 ppm (Feb 15th 2015, Mauna Loa)
Radiative forcing
IPCC - Climate Change 2007, Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
Radiative forcing
Source: IPCC – TAR, WG1, Ch. 2
The “hockey stick”
Michel Mann, Raymond Bradley, Malcom Hughes.
GHGs emissions
Hansen, A slippery slope: how much global warming constitutes dangerous anthropogenic
interference? An editorial essay, Climate Change, 2005.
GHGs emissions
Global fossil fuel and cement emissions: 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC in 2012, 58% over 1990
Projection for 2013 : 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC, 61% over 1990
Uncertainty is ±5% for
one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)
Source: Le Quéré et al 2013; CDIAC Data; Global Carbon Project 2013
Climate change
IPCC - Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) - 2014
Climate change
Resources
Uomini, tecniche, economie (1962) Di Carlo M. Cipolla, Elaborazione da H.Thirring, Energy for man (1958)
Life-time of fossil and nuclear
resources
IEA., World Energy Outlook 2014
Energy and economy
Energy and economy
Energy and economy
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
1883 1888 1893 1898 1903 1908 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958
TW
h
Electricity production in Italy 1883-1960
WWI
Railway electrification
WWII
Economic boom
M. Magnone, Energia, Progresso e sostenibilità, A.A 2014-2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
TW
h
Electricity production in Italy 1960-2013
Energy and economy
Economic boom
Oil crisis
Chernobil disaster
Gulf war
Economic crisis
F. Veglio, Energia, Progresso e sostenibilità, A.A 2014-2015
Energy and economy
Pic nic area in a highway in the Netherlands after the oil shock in 1973 and establishment of car-free sundays
Energy and quality of life
Energy and quality of life
Energy and quality of life
Energy and quality of life
Lanten Village, Luang
Namtha, Western-North
Laos
Deforestation for food
production and fuel for cooking
Photocredits, Pierluigi Leone
Energy and war
It is fundamental to operate arms and arms industry
It is one of the main causes of wars
During peace period, it is necessary to use big amounts of energy to remediate war’s damages
Energy and war
Arms Bullet Kinetic energy, J
Bow and arrow Arrow 20
Heavy crossbow Arrow 100
Muzzle-loading musket Metallic bullet 1˙000
M16 gun Metallic bullet 2˙000
Medieval cannon Stone bullet 50˙000
XVIII century cannon Iron bullet 300˙000
WWI cannon Proiettile esplosivo 1˙000˙000
Hand granade Explosive projectile 2˙000˙000
Anti-aircraft gun, WWI explosive projectile 6˙000˙000
M1A1 Abram tank cannon explosive projectile with
depleted uranium 6˙000˙000
V2 rocket, WWII Missile 10˙000˙000
Truck packed with explosives Chippings 2˙000˙000˙000
Boeing 767 for il World Trade Center attack,
11/9/2011 Aircraft 4˙000˙000˙000
Bibliography
1. Vaclav Smil, Energy in Nature and Society - General Energetics
of Complex Systems, The MIT press, 2007.
2. Michele Calì, Guida all'energia nella natura e nelle civiltà
umane, Editrice Esculapio, Bologna 2014.
3. MOOC – The strange paradox of the world energy question -
Michele Calì, Pierluigi Leone, Emanuela Colombo, Andrea Lanzini
https://www.pok.polimi.it/