The Outlook for U.S. EnergyMarkets

presented to theGasification Technologies 2001 Conference

byRobert T. Eynon

Energy Information AdministrationU.S. Department of Energy

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

10

20

30

40

50

Coal

Natural gas

Nuclear

Petroleum

History Projections

Hydropower

Energy Consumption by Fuel, 1970-2020(quadrillion Btu)

NonhydropowerRenewables

and other

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70 History Projections

Distillate

Natural gas

Other

Electricity, including losses

Residential Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel,1970-2020 (percent of total)

0

2

4

6

8

10

Spaceheating

Spacecooling

Waterheating

Refrig-eration

Lighting Allother

19901997

20202010

Residential Primary Energy Consumption by End Use,1990, 1997, 2010, and 2020 (quadrillion Btu)

Gasfurnaces

Central airconditioners

Electric resistance

water heaters

Refrigerators0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Current standard

1999 stock2020 stock

1999 best available 2001 standard

Efficiency Indicators for Selected Residential Appliances,1999 and 2020 (index, 1999 stock efficiency=1)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

20

40

60

80

Other

Natural gas

History Projections

Distillate

Electricity, including losses

Commercial Nonrenewable Primary Energy Consumptionby Fuel, 1970-2020 (percent of total)

Commercial Primary Energy Consumption by End Use,1999 and 2020 (quadrillion Btu)

Lighting Spaceheating

Cooling Waterheating

Office:PCs

Office:other

Misc.gas

Allother

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

19992020

1999 2020

62.881.9

Commercial floorspace(billion square feet)

Industrial Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel,1970-2020 (quadrillion Btu)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Naturalgas

Oil

Coal

History Projections

1970 2020

Electricity, includinglosses

Total consumption

29.643.4

History

1994 1999 2000 2010 20200

5

10

15

20

25

30

Nonfuel use

Manufacturing heat and powerNonmanufacturing heat and power

Projections

Industrial Primary Energy Consumption by IndustryCategory, 1994-2020 (quadrillion Btu)

Transportation Energy Consumption by Fuel,1975, 1999, and 2020 (quadrillion Btu)

Motorgasoline

Diesel fuel Jet fuel Alternativefuels

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

197519992020

1975 2020

18.2

38.5Total consumption

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

0

1

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

2001 technology

Best available technology

High technology

Reference

Projected Variation from Reference Case PrimaryResidential Energy Use in Three Alternative Cases,

2000-2020 (quadrillion Btu)

Driving Factors forElectricity

• Growth in Demand

• Market Restructuring

• Environmental Regulations

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Commercial

Residential

Industrial

History Projections

Annual Electricity Sales by Sector, 1970-2020(billion kilowatt-hours)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

Coal Natural Gas Petroleum Nuclear Renewable/Other

History Projections

Electricity Generation by Fuel, 1949-2020(billion kilowatt-hours)

19992020

Coal Nuclear Natural gas Renewables Oil0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Projected Electricity Generation by Fuel,1999 and 2020 (billion kilowatt-hours)

2000-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-20200

40

80

120

160

New capacityRetirements

Projected New Generating Capacity and Retirements,2000-2020 (gigawatts)

2000-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-20200

40

80

120Natural gas

CoalRenewables

Projected Electricity Generation Capacity Additions byFuel Type, Including Cogeneration, 2000-2020 (gigawatts)

Coal Capacity Additions

0

2

46

8

10

1214

16

1819

99

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Year

Gig

awat

ts

IGCC Conventional

2000-2005 2006-20102011-2015 2016-2020

0102030

Electricity Generation Capacity Additions by NorthAmerican Electric Reliability Council Region, 2000-2020

(gigawatts)

Low growth Reference High growth0

50

100

150

200

250

Combined cycleTurbines

RenewablesCoal steam

Projected Cumulative New Generating Capacity byTechnology Type in Three Economic Growth Cases,

1999-2020 (gigawatts)

100

1999 20200

20

40

60

80

OilCoal

Natural gas

Biomass/other

IndustrialBuildings

Total

Cogeneration Capacity by Type and Fuel, 1999 and 2020(gigawatts)

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

2

4

6

8

History Projections

1970 2020

Average price(nominal cents)

1.7

9.7

Average U.S. Retail Electricity Prices,1970-2020 (1999 cents per kilowatt-hour)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

1

2

3

4

5

Coal

Natural gas

History Projections

Oil

Nuclear

Fuel Prices to Electricity Generators, 1990-2020(1999 dollars per million Btu)

Rapid and Slow Technology High and Low Resource

• Conventional natural gastechnology parameters adjustedplus and minus 25 percent

• finding rates• drilling• lease equipment and

operating costs• success rates

• Unconventional natural gas• varying adjustments made

for 11 separate technologygroups

• Conventional onshore and offshoreresources adjusted plus and minus20 percent across all regions

• undiscovered technicallyrecoverable resource

• inferred reserve estimates

• Unconventional gas resourcesadjusted plus and minus 40 percentacross all regions

• unproved resourceestimates

Oil and Gas Side Cases

$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

0 10 20 30 40$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

0 10 20 30 40$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

0 10 20 30 40$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

0 10 20 30 40$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

0 10 20 30 40$0

$1

$2

$3

$4

$5

0 10 20 30 40

1977 - 1979, 1987 - 1999

Natural Gas Wellhead Prices vs. Total Supply

Slow TechnologyLow Resource

High Resource

Rapid Technology

Reference1980 - 1985

1930 - 19751975

1986

2000-2001

1999

dol

lars

per

thou

sand

cub

ic fe

et

trillion cubic feet

2002*

2001*

* March 2001 STEO

1976

Natural Gas Production,1955 - 2020(trillion cubic feet)

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

History Projections

17 years

17 years12.6 Tcf

8.2 Tcf

.74 Tcf/yr

.48 Tcf/yr

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Additions of Interstate Natural Gas Pipeline Capacity,1991-2020 (trillion cubic feet)

History Projections

1990 1999 2020

84.05 102.9 125.6

Pipeline capacity

Projected Operable Nuclear Capacity in Three Cases,1995-2020 (gigawatts)

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

20

40

60

80

100

Reference case

Low nuclear

High nuclear

0

250

500

750

Nuclear generation, 2020(billion kilowatt-hours)

LowReference

High

Projected Electricity Generation Costs,2005 and 2020 (1999 mills per kilowatt-hour)

Coal Combinedcycle

2005Wind Nuclear Coal Combined

cycle

2020Wind Nuclear

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Capital

FuelOperations and maintenance

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

100

200

300

400

Conventionalhydropower

Other renewables

History Projections

Grid-connected Electricity Generation from RenewableEnergy Sources, 1970-2020 (billion kilowatt-hours)

Projected Non-hydroelectric Renewable Electricity Generationby Energy Source, 2010 and 2020 (billion kilowatt-hours)

1999 2010 20200

25

50

75

100

125

150

MSW

Biomass

WindPhotovoltaicSolar ThermalGeothermal

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

4

8

12

16 15.7

11.9 11.510.3

9.3 9.3 8.9

Sulfur Dioxide Emissions from Electricity Generation,2000-2020 (million tons)

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7 6.76.1

4.64.3 4.2 4.3 4.4

Nitrogen Oxide Emissions from Electricity Generation,2000-2020 (million tons)

800 772

1990 1999 2000 2010 20200

200

400

600

Coal

Natural gasPetroleum

480

556 570

679

Projected Carbon Dioxide Emissions from ElectricityGeneration by Fuel, 2000, 2010, and 2020(million metric tons carbon equivalent)

Summary• Energy Consumption grows 1.3 percent

per year• Electricity demand grows 1.8 percent per

year through 2020• Natural gas supplies most of new

generating capacity• Electricity prices fall over long term,

contingent on effects of restructuring• SO2 and NOx emissions fall, while CO2

emissions rise