Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
The Outlook for Energya view to 2030
US EIA and John Hopkins University 2010 Energy Conference
Tom EizemberCorporate Strategic Planning6 April 2010
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1980 2005 2030
Global Economics and Energy
BillionPopulation
Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030
0.9%
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 2005 2030
GDPTrillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030
2.7%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1980 2005 2030
Energy DemandQuadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030
1.2%
3
0
100
200
300
400
1980 2005 2030
0
100
200
300
400
1980 2005 2030
0
30
60
1980 2005 2030
0
30
60
1980 2005 2030
Economic Growth Drives Energy DemandGDP Demand
Trillion 2005$ GDP Quadrillion BTUs
Quadrillion BTUsTrillion 2005$ GDP
OECD
Non OECD
4
US Primary Energy Supply
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 2005 2030
Quadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Coal
NuclearBiomass < Hydro/Geothermal
Wind, Solar, Biofuels
5
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
2000 2015 2030
Cars and Population (millions)
Personal Vehicle Fleet
Vehicle Penetration Fleet by Car TypeMillion Cars
Gasoline
Diesel
Advanced
CarsPopulation
US 2005
US 2030
Europe OECD 2005
Europe OECD 2030
China 2005
China 2030
6
Global Transportation Demand
Average New CarMPG
India
Europe OECD
China
US
0
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2015 20300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 2005 2030
By SectorMBDOE
Rail
Light Duty Vehicles
Heavy Duty Vehicles
Aviation
Marine
Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030
1.3%
7
$60 per Ton CO2
0
5
10
15
20
Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal + CCS Gas + CCS Solar
No CO2 Cost
Electricity Generation Cost
US Baseload, Startup 20252009 Cents/kWhr
Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Coal + CCS Gas + CCS Solar
8
Power Generation Fuel Demand
United StatesQuadrillion BTUs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 2005 20300
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 2005 2030
Renewables
Europe OECDQuadrillion BTUs
Asia PacificQuadrillion BTUs
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
Oil0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 2005 2030
RenewablesNuclear
Gas
Coal
Oil
9
Gas Supply and Demand Balance
Conventional
Unconventional
Pipeline
United StatesBCFD
EuropeBCFD
Asia PacificBCFD
LNG
LNG: Liquefied Natural Gas
Imports
10
Biofuels
0
1
2
3
2000 2015 2030
Global SupplyMBDOE
US Biofuels
ROW Ethanol
Brazil Ethanol
ROW Biodiesel
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2015 2030
US SupplyBillion Gallons
Corn Ethanol
Biodiesel2nd Gen
Imports
EISA 2022 Target
*EISA: Energy Independence and Security Act
11
Billion Tons
CO2 Emissions
Global CO2 EmissionsAverage Growth / Yr.
2005 – 20300.9%
0
10
20
30
40
1980 2005 20301980 2005 2030
40
30
20
10
0
OECD
Non-OECD
-2
-1
0
1
2
Change in US CO2 EmissionsBillion Tons
1980-2005
2005-2030
12
Integrated Energy Solutions
Now 2030• 6.7 billion people
• Global economic linkages
• Disparate living standards
• Enormous energy needs
• Environmental gains & concerns
• Growing technology use & focus
• 8 billion people
• Non OECD leads economic growth
• Less poverty; living standards improve
• Global energy needs up one-third
• Progress on environmental goals
• Significant advances in technology
Increase Efficiency
Expand Supply
Mitigate Emission
s
MitigateEmissions
ExpandSupply
IncreaseEfficiency
Technology
13
14
Primary Energy Supply
Power Generation
Industrial
Transportation
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 2005 2030
USQuadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Coal
NuclearBiomass < Hydro
Geo
Wind, Solar, Biofuels
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1980 2005 2030
GlobalQuadrillion BTUs
Oil
Gas
Coal
NuclearBiomass
Hydro, GeoWind, Solar, Biofuels
15
0
30
60
90
120
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Non-OPEC Crude & Condensate
CanadaOil Sands
Other Petroleum
Global Liquids Supply
Global Liquids Supply and DemandMBDOE
Biofuels
OPEC
~27~28
~34~37
OPEC Crude
Liquids Demand
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
'05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '300
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
'05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '300
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
'05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30
Renewables by Region
United StatesPercent of TWhr
Europe OECDPercent of TWhr
Asia PacificPercent of TWhr
*Biomass includes Municipal Solid Waste
SolarBiomass*
HydroWind
17
Nuclear
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2030
Global CapacityGW
US
Europe
Other OECD
China
Other Non OECD
US Nuclear ReactorsExisting LocationsProposed Locations
Existing Locations
Brownfield Sites
Greenfield Sites
18
Production Outlook
U.S. Natural Gas Supply
Gas Play Areas
Basin Areas
Shale gas, tight gas and CBM
Conventional
XOM CERA*
EIA*
Shale/Tight Gas and CBM Basins
U.S. Natural Gas Resource Base: Likely covers about a century of
demand at current rates
CBM: Coal Bed Methane
Billion Cubic Feet per Day
* EIA and CERA Outlooks do not include Alaska pipeline
2005 2008 2020
19
0.1
1
10
100
1000
100 1000 10000 1000000.1
1
10
100
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
Cars per 1000 People
Light Duty Vehicles vs. GDP per Capita
Vehicles
19902005 2030
US
Europe OECD
China
India
GDP per Capita (2005$)
1990 – 20301990 – 2005
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Engine &Powertrain
Body &Accessories
Operational /Behavior
Mild Hybrids CountrySpecific
Heavy Duty Vehicles
Road Freight – USTon-Miles
New Truck EfficiencyPercent Improvement 2005 – 2030
2005
1980
Truck Size
Other
Congestion, Lighter Cargo,
etc.
Trillion 2005$ GDPEngine &
PowertrainBody &
AccessoriesOperational /
Behavior Change
Mild Hybrids Country Specific
500
1000
1500
5 10 15
21
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1980 2005 20300
100
200
300
400
AsiaPacific
NorthAmerica
RussiaCaspian
Other
Coal
ReservesBillion Tons
China
India
Australia
Other World: 990 Billion Tons ~150 years @ 2008 Demand
DemandBillion Tons
NA
India
China
Other
EuropeAP
Asia Pacific
North America
Russia Caspian
Other
22
36 MPG in 2010
Smart fortwo• 1808 lbs
• 3-cyl, 1-L, 70 Hp engine
23
50 MPG in 2010
Prius• 3042 lbs
• 4-cyl, 1.8 L, 134 Hp engine
• 0 – 60 in 10 seconds
