The Orange Order in the Twentieth Century: A

Comparative Perspective

The Orange Order

• Formed 1795 in Northern Ireland

• Stands for loyalty to British Crown & Protestantism

• Associative cornerstone of British dominant ethnicity in Canada, N.I.

• Britannic ethno-nationalist

• Rapidly spread internationally

ESRC Research• Focuses on Orange Order and social change in the

20th century• Issue of how ethnic cores of nations deal with

liberal modernity and globalisation• Orange Order as the associational glue behind

dominant ethnicity in N.I., Canada, W.C. Scotland• Little study of the Order in the contemporary

period

Main Research Questions

• What factors cause per capita Orange membership strength to rise and fall over time and across place? (social question)

• How effective is the Orange Order in determining policy change, and why does its power rise and fall over time and place? (political question)

Research Methodology

• Quantitative: Compare Orange membership among Protestants with variables from census, police reports, history, polls. Over time and across county and ‘province’ (N.I., Scotland, Nfld., Ontario)

• Qualitative: Compare Orange resolutions and organised political activity over time and place. Look at class profile of elite and membership over time. Interviews.

• Sources: Previously unseen internal documents; census, polls, violence stats, valuation rolls, some newspapers

Canadian Orangeism

• First parades in the 1810s

• Grand Lodge formed - 1830

• Originally immigrant, later ‘native’

• Not Irish - a mixture of several British ethnic groups and some others

Social & Political Influence- Canada

• Politically influential by 1867

• Many Tory MPs were members

• Involved in most national issues

• 1/3 of Ontario legislature was Orange in 1915

• 1/3 of Ontario males were members during 1870-1920

• Hundreds of thousands in the wider Orange fraternity as late as the 1950's

Political Influence in N. Ireland

• Helped found Ulster Unionist Party

• Guaranteed 15% of seats on Ulster Unionist Council

• Virtually all Unionist MPs are, and have been, Orange members (Paisley an exception)

• Orange Order an influential lobby

Twentieth Century Decline

• Stable for 100+ years, sudden decline

• Also declined in England and Australia/NZ

• Did not decline in N. Ireland until later

• Delayed or small declines in Newfoundland and Scotland

• Why the pattern of decline? What does it portend for N. Ireland politics?

Theories of Fraternal Change

• Beito: Decline in 1920’s as welfare state emerges• Emery: Decline in 1920’s or 30’s due to private

insurance and expanded recreational options• Putnam: Depression caused decline, WWII boosted

membership. Differences in ‘Social Capital’ between Generations explains most of post-1960 decline.

• Culturalist: Decline of Protestant Religiosity (Bruce), Decline of Loyalty to Crown (Cheal), Decline of British-Protestant Ethnic Identity, Ecumenism

• Events mobilise or de-mobilise members

Preliminary Research: Qualitative

• Based on Interviews & Reports

• Leaders and Rank-and-file members point to structural forces

• But nearly all admit cultural pressures

• Also speak of role of events

• Institutional changes not seen as significant by members - though leaders think otherwise

• Qualitative evidence inconclusive

Quantitative Research

• Based on Previously Restricted Membership Data

• Previous research has only tracked the number of lodges

• Membership data highlights different patterns, contrasts with census and other data

Concentrated in Ontario, NB & Nfld, but strength Nationwide

Membership, by Province, 1903

40%

23%

12%

6%

5%

2%

1% 11%

Ont West

Ont East

Nfld

NS

Man

BC

NWT

NB

World Orange Membership, c. 1930

N. IRE30%

ENG4%

SCT6%

CAN52%

USA4%

AUS3%

N. IRE

ENG

SCT

CAN

USA

SA

AUS

International Orange Membership, 1912-1994

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1912 1929 1937 1955 1994

Other

Canada

Scotland

England

Ireland

Orange Male Membership, Ontario West, 1901-1995

c. 1

901

1915

1921

1927

1933

1939

1945

1951

1957

1963

1969

1975

1981

1987

1993

Orange Male Membership, Newfoundland, 1901-2001

1901

1908

1915

1922

1929

1936

1943

1950

1957

1964

1971

1978

1985

1992

1999

Orange membership, Scotland, per 1000 males

0123456

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Current Trends in N.I. Orange Membership, 1966-2001

196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001

Orange Density, International, 1920

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Nfld Ont Scotland N. Ireland

International Orange Similarities• All jurisdictions experience growth until the

1920’s

• All decline in the Depression years

• All experience growth after World War II

• All experience steady decline in recent decades

• N.I; Scotland; Ontario; Newfoundland

International Differences

• Membership decline sets in as early as the 1920’s in Ontario (1960 in NF) and decline in the 1920-39 period is sharper in Ontario

• Membership decline in the post-1960 period has been quicker in Canada, while Northern Ireland and Scotland have declined at similar steady rates

Inter-County Patterns, N.I. Orangeism

• General decline since membership peak in early 1960’s (mid-Ulster), or 50’s (East)

• Height of the ‘Troubles’ (1969-72) boosted membership temporarily, as did Anglo-Irish Agreement and Drumcree

• However, general trend is a steady decline• Urban areas suffer heavier declines, even

taking into account population flows.

Male Orange Lodges, Southern Ontario, c. 1975

Newfoundland Male Orange Lodges, 1961

Orange Lodges, Co. Armagh, 1991

Male Orange Lodges, Scotland, 2001

Roman Catholic Percentage, Scottish Counties, 1961

Male Orange Density Scotland, 1961

Predictors of Scottish Orange Male Density, 1860-1991

(TSCS; N = 1202; R sq = .115

02468

1012141618

IrishProtestantIndicator

(1901 base)[+]

Wartime [-] PolicyLosses [-]

ThreateningEvents [+]

Social &Political

Stimuli [+]

% Catholic[+]

% inAgriculture

[-]

Predictors

Imp

act

(Z s

core

)

Predictors of Orange Male Density, Ontario, 1891-1961

(TSCS; N = 224, R sq = .74)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Irish Protestant(1931 base) % [+]

French-Catholic[+]

ConservativeProtestant [+]

ScottishProtestant (1931

base) [-]

Rural [+]

Predictor

Imp

ac

t (Z

sc

ore

)

Male Orange Density, N.I., 1971

Orange Density, by County, 1971

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Antrim

Arm

ag

h

Be

lfast

De

rry Ci

Do

wn

Fe

rma

nag

L'D

erry C

o

Tyro

ne

Predictors of Orange Density, N.I. 1971 (TSCS; N = 100; R-sq = .99 )

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Protestant % (negative) COI/Protestant (positive) 1971 Generation (negative)

Predictor Variable

Imp

act

of

Va

ria

ble

(Z

sco

re)

N.I. Counties, by Protestant Percentage, 1971

Church of Ireland Protestants, N.I. Counties, 1971

Inter-Fraternal Patterns

• Masons appear to have outdrawn Orange Order from late forties until late sixties in N.I. And since the 1920’s in Ontario ONT; NI 1

• Orange Order has withstood post-1970 declines better than Masonic NI2

• Inter-County Patterns in Masonic match those of Orange

• IOOF declined in step with Orange in Ontario ONT

Predictors of Orange/Masonic Membership Ratio, Ontario, 1891-

1961 (TSCS; N = 224; R sq = .74

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Irish Prot(1931) [+]

ConservativeProt [+]

French-Catholic [+]

Rural [+] British Prot [+] Houses/Pop [-]

Predictor

Imp

ac

t (Z

sc

ore

)

Summary

Great deal of similarity in shape of historical patterns of membership across nations and fraternities

Great deal of difference between places and fraternities in terms of slope of rise/decline in membership

Statistical Summary – Pooled TSCS

• Economic factors less important than cultural, events in between

• Scotland and Ontario: Irish-Protestant % key; Catholic competition also important, but less so

• N. Ireland and Ontario: Protestant denomination important

• 'social capital' theory seems to have some weight in Northern Ireland, but none in Scotland

Preliminary Statistical Tests – Across Time

• Denominational balance (esp. rise of Methodism and Other Protestant sects) important during 1901-71.

• Orangeism in N.I. And Scotland responded to RC population growth until 1970, but not since then

• Political events (Troubles, Peace Agreements, Drumcree) have been a factor in N.I. post-1970

• Rate of Protestant fatalities have had little impact in N.I. since 1970

• High-school education appears correlated with membership decline in Ontario during 1955-75

• Still more work needed in this and other areas

Conclusion

• Orangeism is a worldwide movement historically strongest in Ulster and eastern Canada

• Orangeism’s rise owed a lot to both Irish-Protestant emigration and inter-ethnic conflict with a Catholic ethnie. Relatively Catholic counties in N.I., Ontario and Scotland have more ‘Orange’ Protestants

Conclusion II

• The role of economic change is minimal during the period 1891-1971 in all areas

• The role of events is important, but less so than cultural change. Strong evidence against ‘contact’ hypothesis

• Some evidence appears to support Putnam thesis (N.I. but not Scotland), though more work needed with respect to generation, as well as time-series analysis

• No definitive answer yet as to why Orangeism is in decline over past 20-30 years

ESRC Project Web Sites

• http://www.kpdata.com/epk/subtheme_A__OO_in_20th_c.html (Fellowship)

• http://www.devolution.ac.uk/Patterson2.htm (Devolution Programme Grant, with Henry Patterson)