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The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and
Current Status
Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP
24 September 2012
Outline
• Recent Evolution and Current Conditions
• Summary
• Climatology
Rainfall Patterns: Last 7 Days
During the past week, below-average rainfall was observed over much of the western Mexico.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days
Much of the NAM core areas have received overall near-average rainfall during the past 30 days.
Recent Evolution: Rainfall
NCEP/GFS Forecast
Near-average precipitations are predicted over southwest U.S. during 24 September – 07 October, 2012. Meanwhile, above-average rainfall during the next week is forecasted over northwestern Mexico and Baja.
Summary
• During the past week, below-average rainfall was observed over much of the western Mexico.
• Most of the NAM core areas have received overall near-average rainfall during the past 30 days.
• The GFS bias-corrected forecasts show near-average precipitations over southwest U.S. during 24 September – 07 October, 2012. Meanwhile, above-average rainfall for the next week is predicted over northwestern Mexico and Baja.
ClimatologyMONSOON ONSET
June 5
June 6June 6
June 8June 7
June 14June 14
June 17June 16
June 23
June 27June 25June 29
July 3July 6July 11
July 7July 8July 13
July 9July 13July 14
June 10June 11
June 22June 21
Higgins, R. W., Y. Chen and A. V. Douglas, 1999: Interannual Variability of the North American Warm Season Precipitation Regime. J. Clim, 17, 653-680
Precipitation ClimatologyPrecipitation Climatology
