The ninth annual semicon/west seminar: status 1990, 1990archive.computerhistory.org/resources/access/text/...Ihe brochure was mailed directly to me Someone in my ccsmpany gave me the

Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

The Ninth Annual SEMICON/West Seminar:

Status 1990

Dataquest Incorporated

May 23, 1990 Hotel Sofitel San Francisco Bay

at Redwood Shores

Dataquest n n a company of I f j f The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation

THE NINTH ANNUAL SEMICON/WEST SEMINAR: STATUS 1990

May 23, 1990

AGENDA

7:00-8:00 a.m. Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:00 a.m. Welcome and Introduction Joseph Grenier Director Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

8:10 a.m. Electronic Equipment Outlook and the Next PC Boom Terrance Birkholz Semiconductor User and Applications Group

8:40 a.m. Semiconductor Industry Status David Angel Vice President and Director Semiconductor Industry Service

9:10 a.m. New Manufacturing in the Submicron Decade Mark Reagan Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

9:40-9:55 a.m. Break

10:00 a.m. Some Key Performance Measures of the Semiconductor Equipment Industry Joseph Grenier Director Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

10:30 a.m. Fab Equipment Trends in the '90s Krishna Shankar Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

11:00 a.m. Staying in the Materials Race through the '90s Mark FitzGerald Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service

11:30 a.m. Trends in Packaging Stan Bruederle Vice President Components Group Consulting

Adjourn

SEMINAR INFORMATION

Location

Hotel Sofitel San Francisco Bay at Redwood Shores 223 Twin Dolphin Drive, Redwood City, California 94065 Telephone (415) 598-9000

1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 (408) 437-8000 Telex 171973 Fax (408) 437-0292

Dataquest acDfrpanvol The Dun S^Bnidsl ird Corporation

DataQuest a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation

m n accompany of

1990 SEMia3N/WEST SIMINAR QUESnONN2m?E

In order to continually inprove the Semiconductor Equipivent and Materials SEMZCJON/West Seminar, we need to better understand your information needs. Please help us by ccsipleting the following questionnaire. We would appreciate it if you would list your ccaaopany name and/or attach your business card.

1. Is your ccnpary a Dataquest client? Yes No

2. Which of the following best describes your compai^'s primary activities?

Semiconductor manufacturer

Semiconductor equipment si^plier, Front end , Back end_

Semiconductor materials supplier

Other (Please specify)

Which of the following best describes your positioiytitle?

CEO, President, Vice President

Strategic Planning/Business Develc^snent

Sales and Marketing Management

Product Develcpnent/R&D/Engineering Management

Other (Please specif)

4. How did you learn about this seminar?

Ihe brochure was mailed directly to me

Someone in my ccsmpany gave me the brochure

Someone frcm Dataquest called me

Other . (Please speciQ^)


5. Please list your main reasons for attending this seminar:

6.

7.

How well did the seminar meet your objectives?

Hicdiest

5 4

In the future, should the length of this seminar be: Shorter Longer About the same?

What is the best day and time to hold the seminar? Day Time?

Please comment on this location?

Lowest

3 2 1

8. Please rate the speakers and their speech content:

Speaker Delivery Hicdiest Lowest

Terrance BirWiolz Dave Angel Mark Reagan Joseph Grenier Krishna Shankar Mark FitzGerald Stan Brufiderle

5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4

3 3 3 3 3 3 3

2 2 2 2 2 2 2

1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Speech Content Hicdiest Lowest

9. Topics you would like to hear about at next year's seminar:

5 5 5 5 5 5 5

4 4 4 4 4 4 4

3 3 3 3 3 3 3

2 2 2 2 2 2 2

1 1 1 1 1 1 l'

10. Please vise this space for your ccantiments on any aspect of our seminar:

Name (Cîonal)

Attendee Lists

DataQuest '•BIB a company of I f j f The Dun &Bradstreet Corporation SEMICON/West Seminar

May 23, 1990 Redwood City, California

List of Attendees

AG Associates Donald M. Yoshikawa, Marketing Manager

ASM International N.V. Herbert Lakens, Director Marketing

ATEQ Corporation Barry Cox, President Monty Zach, Marketing Administrator

Air Products & Chemicals, Inc. Dean Duffy, International Business Manager Stephen Hensler, Commercial Manager Bob Nolan Robert Shay, Commercial Development Manager

Airco/BOC Philip Blakey, Vice President of Electronics

Applied Materials, Inc. Dana C. Ditraore, Vice President, Customer Service Division Michael George, Director of Marketing Dennis Hunter, Director, Corporate Development Noella Kwan, Research Analyst David Orgill, Manager, Investor Relations Dave Reis

Aseco Corporation Ken Lee, Vice President Engineering

Ashland Chemical Company James A. Duquin, Vice President & General Manager, Electronic & Lab Products

Assembly Technologies Joseph Savarese, Vice President and General Manager

Bandgap Technology Corporation Volker Heilmanh, Vice President & General Manager


Bank of Boston Elizabeth Everett, Assistant Vice President Oscar Jazdowsky, Director

Bank o£ the Vest Thomas A. Hannen, Assistant Vice President

Bertram Laboratories, Inc. Les G. Polgar, Vice President, Marketing & Sales

Branson International Plasma Corporation

Lou Perrone, Vice President, Marketing & Technology

Brooks Instruments Joseph Dille, Product Manager Harry Lund, Vice President, Sales

Cybeq Systems Kanegi Nagai, President and Chief Executive Officer

Daifuku U.S.A. Inc. Takehide Hiyashi, Section Manager Hajime Maeda Sam Nakajima, Sales Manager

Delta Design Inc. Jim Donahue, President

Dexter Electronic Materials

DuPont Photomasks, Inc.

Ron Benham, President

Bob Machado, Technical Service Manager

E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Company Neil Washburn, Senior Development Specialist, Specialty Polymer

Division

ESEC USA Inc. Gary Spray, Vice President and General Manager

Eaton Corporation Carl Noblitt, Director, Marketing Geoffrey Ryding, Vice President & .Director, Marketing, Sales & Services, Semiconductors

Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

Edwards High Vacuum International Ameeta Soni, Product Marketing Manager

Electro Scientific Industries, Inc. Russ Schlager, Product Manager

Equitable Lomas Leasing Corporation Chuck Beckraire, Vice President & Director, Vendor Programs Louie Coffman, Executive Vice President, Operations Dean Cuplin, Vice President, Manufacturer/Vendor Products Paul Edstrom, Vice President, Equipment Steven Grundon, Vice President, Marketing Services Colleen Lusian, Assistant Vice President, Equipment Evaluation Mike Mardesich, Appraiser John McEwen, Account Representative Ellie Sanchez, Market Research Manager

FSI International Walt Kalin, Director of Marketing Laurie Walker, Communications Manager

First Interstate Bank Robin Apple Linda Ometer Pam Robichaux Marc J. Verissimo, Vice President

GCA Corporation Gary A. Mezack, Vice President, Marketing

General Signal/Xynetics Nancy McKereghan, Market Analyst Gordon C. Westwood, Vice President, Marketing

Genus, Inc. Ron Dornseif, Vice President, Corp. Excellence Program William W.R. Elder, President and Chief Executive Officer Robert McGeary, Vice President, Marketing and Sales

Hewlett-Packard Company James K. Lee, Procurement Engineer

Dataquest Incorporated, a company ot The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

Hughes Aircraft Company Gordon Chang, Manager, DMS Integrated Solutions Rich Cimino, Director of Sales & Marketing

Intel Corporation Joe Louie, Q & R Manager Jacques J. Vuye, Manager, Competitive Analysis

KTI Chemicals, Inc. Dave Zaring, Technical Marketing Manager

Kobe Development Corporation Takeo Tanaka, General Manager

Kokusai Electric Co., Ltd. Noriaki Yamamoto, Assistant Marketing Manager

Kulicke & Soffa Industries, Inc. Ron Clunk, Director of Corporate Marketing Asuri Raghavan, Director of Business Division

Kyocera America, Inc. Chuck E. DeMars, Vice President, Microelectronics Division

Lam Research Corporation Henk Evenhuis, Senior Vice President, Finance & CFO

Debbie McGovan, Manager, Investor Relations John Osborne, Senior Vice President, Strategic Development

Liquid Air Corporation Denis Rufin, Manager of Technology

Lumonics Corporation Pat Austin, President, Marking Systems Division

Materials Research Corporation Irwin Grater, Director of Marketing

Matheson Gas Products Pat Carlucci

Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstre^ Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

Mattson Technology, Inc. Ralph-Martin, Vice President'of Engineering Brad Mattson, President

Meissner+Wurst GmbH-hCo

Micro Mask

Jurgen Giessmann, Managing Director

Bob Jaynes, Corporate Vice President, Marketing & Sales Russ Weiss, Executive Vice President and COO

Mitel Corporation Luc Gagnon, Product Marketing Manager

Mitel Semiconductor Gord Harling, Director, Process R&D

Mitsubishi Semiconductor America Inc. Tad Mizoguchi, President

Montgomery Securities Jonathan Joseph Tom Thornhill, Vice President

NBK Corporation Joseph Arruda, Director of Sales and Marketing

NCR Corporation Timothy P. McCarthy, Director of Manufacturing

Nikon Precision, Inc. David Kettering, Product Line Manager

Oki Electric Industry Co., Ltd. Jim Cantore, Manager, Strategic Marketing

Osaka Sanso Kogyo, Ltd. Michael Solomon, General Manager Electric Gases, The BOC Group

Outokumpu Corporation Asko Vehanen, Development Manager

Pall Ultrafine Filtration Corp Reed Sarver, Electronics Sales Manager

Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

Price Waterhouse Technology Paul Turner, Director

Prism Technologies, Inc. Bobby Greenberg, President Bob Williams

Prometrix Corporation Steve Westrate, International Marketing Manager

Prudential-Bache Capital Funding Mark Edelstone, Junior Semiconductor Analys t

Prudential-Bache Securities Chad Keck, Managing Director

Ramtron Corporation Jon Downing, Logistics & Acquisitions Manager

Rapro Technology, Inc. Tom Kandris, Vice President, Sales/Service

Raychem Corporation Charles K. Cheng, Marketing Manager

Rudolph Research Richard L. Bud^înski, Director of Sales.

SEEQ Technology, Inc. Michael Van Hoy, Vice- President of Marketing

SEMATECH Michael Stark, Competitive Analyst

Samsung Semiconductor & Tel. Co., Ltd. S. L. Choi, Senior Planning Manager Kyung V. Kim, Planning Manager

Sandia National Laboratories Douglas L. Weaver, Department Manager, 2130

Security Pacific Bank Joe Foster, Vice President

Seiko Instruments USA, Inc. Hiroshi Fukino, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / iWex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

Semiconductor Services Katherine B. Evans, Customer'"Relations

Semiconductor Systems, Inc. Eric Hsu, Sales Manager

Signetics Corporation Jim Bilham-Boult, Senior General Management Staff, Die Manufacturing Operations

Solid State Measurements, Inc. John Snyder, Marketing Manager

Sumisho Electronic Systems, Inc. Hiroshi Ishivata, Sales & Marketing Manager

Swage1ok Company Donald Levengood, General Manager, Nupro Company David M. Simko, Manager, Marketing

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd.

Klaus C. Wiemer, President

Temescal Russell J. Hill, Director, Technology

Tencor Instruments, Inc. Dale Guidoux, International Accounts Manager John Scott, Vice President Roberta Wong, Marketing Communications Manager

Teradyne, Inc. James Prestridge, Vice President

Texas Instruments, Inc. Pallab Chatterjee, Vice President, Corporate Staff Graydon Larrabee, Director, MMST Program

Therma-Wave, Inc. Charles Shalvoy, President and Chief Operating Officer

Toppan Electronics USA Inc. Teruo Hisano, President


Toshiba America Electronic Components, Inc.

Kin Tang, Product Marketing Engineer

Tosoh SMO, Inc. Steven L. Bardus, Product Manager

Tracor Northern, Inc. Robert Hirche, National Sales Manager, Electron Beam Instruments

Ultratech Stepper, Inc. Kay Mascoll, Director of Marketing & Research, Government Relations

Union Bank Frank Hall, Vice President Anthony Kvee, Assistant Vice President Ed Schultz, Regional Vice President James Weber, Vice President

Union Carbide Chemicals & Plastics Co. Mike Bilancetti H. Parks Brame Bill Gittere Jan Maurits Bob Ricciardi James L. Young

Union Carbide Corporation Thomas Nelson, Applications Manager, Electronics Walter Willett^ National Sales Manager

Union Carbide Industrial Gases Inc. Bill Schmeh, Region Sales Manager Thomas L. Singman, Marketing Manager

United Microelectronics Corporation Alvis Ho Wei-Jyh Liu

Varian Associates James Crosskill, Planning Specialist Steve Jensen, Vice President, Marketing

Watkins-Johnson Company John F. Lunden, Manager, Commercial Equipment Development

Weitek Corporation Jim Gay, Manager, Business Development


Vestech Systems Inc. Dave Anderson, Marketing and.Sales Manager

Zilog, Inc. Michael Bradshaw, Vice President of Operations Larry Thomas

Zitel Corporation Karl Schiavo, Purchasing Supervisor

Dâquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Brad^reet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-80(X) / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

•n

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Dataquest's Ninth Annual SEMICON/West Seminar Status 1990 May 23. 1990

Electronic Equipment Outlook and the Next PC Boom

Terrance A. BIrkholz Industry Analyst

Semiconductor User and Applications Group Dataquest Incorporated

© 1990 Dataquest Incorporated May 23 — Reproduction Prohibited


AGENDA

Near-term outlook

Long-term outlook

Summary

NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK



U.S. COMPUTERS AND OFFICE EQUIPMENT Shipments Growth (1988-1990)

Percent Change

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F h 1988 4- 1989 H 1990

Souice: VS. DepartmeniofConiineice

U.S. COMPUTERS AND OFFICE EQUIPMENT Orders Growth (1988-1990)

Percent Change

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F h 1988 4- 1989 H 1990

Sourae: U& DapufenartorOonmam



U.S. COMPUTERS AND OFFICE EQUIPMENT

Weeks Inventory to Shipments Ratio

J J Month

A S O N D

Souwe: US. Deptiwnt cf Ooiiimeice

U.S. COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT

In February:

• Three-month-ended orders: 11.1% atxyve year-earlier orders

• Three-month-ended shipments: 10.5% above year-earlier shipments

• Inventory at 9.9 wiseks was 1.1 vveeks less than February 1989

Dataquest expects:

• Orders growth to stabilize

• Shipments growth to remain t>risk, then stabilize


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

U.S. INSTRUMENTS

In February:

• Three-month-ended orders: 6.1% above year-earlier orders

• Three-month-ended shipments: 3.6% above year-earlier shipments

• Inventory at 10.4 weeks was 0.4 week less than February 1989

Dataquest expects:

• Upcoming months to be marked by relatively stable growth

ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT PRODUCTION FORECAST

(Billions of Dollars)

Total Worldwide North America Japan Europe Asia/Pacific

1989

653.1 269.2 181.1 149.0 53.8

1990

689.7 285.0 183.7 159.6 61.5

%A

5.6 5.8 1.4 7.1

14.3 SoiaoK IMaquM



mtMuum taBKom

NEAR-TERM SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET DRIVERS

Billions of Dollars

70

Contributions to 1990 Growth ($M)

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

KftA 1U1. 57,3

14JM

1989

DOS PCs

Fax

1990

Laser Printers

Rigid Drives

ODD LAN ^ W o r k s t a t i o n s

Other SemicondiJClor

Soiaoa: MMquast

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

1990 Dataquest Incorporated May 23 — Reproduction Prohibited


ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT PRODUCTION OUTLOOK BY REGION

Growth, %A 22

1909 O ndz Asia/Pacifk: 20

18 16 14

12 ^ 10

8 -

6-

4

2

1993

1904

1990

Europe •O I B M

North America

50 100 200 150

Revenue ($B)

— I —

250 300 350 400

Sowoe: IMaquest

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ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE ELECTRONIC PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

Growth, %A 10 n

9 -

B-

7 -

1990

Communications Equipment

Data Processing Equipment

1 1 1 1 1 —

50 100 150 200 250 300 Revenue ($B)

350 400

SmKr



ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

Growth. %A

u-9-

8-

7-

6-5-4-

3-

2-

1 -0-

nes *^rt

WBO

Inciuslrial Equipment

—1 1

5*

w w * ^

WW jf

/

/

1900 ^

«wrf

—I 1

nez

^ o n»4

, ,_

- ^ «e4

Consumer Equ^tmeiil

1 1 — 1

100 110 120 130 140 150 Revenue ($B)

160 170 180

ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT PRODUCTION OUTLOOK

Growth, 12-

io-8"

6^

4-

2-

n -

.

%A a T09Z

1991 / \

-,/ r

U I 30

1/ •« 1 Transportation

loi» Equipment

1 t r 40 50 60

Military Equipment

w o < / ^

Z/ I 1 1 1

70 80 90 100 Revenue ($B)



LONG-TERM SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET DRIVERS

Estimated 1989-1994 Change in Worldwide Electronic

Equipment Production

Estimated 1989-1994 Change in Worldwide

Semiconductor Production

$Z72l3ilion

PCs/Wbrtoâbons Pef1pheratS|

1^x3 MainframesMinis ^ H Others

I $55Binion

20 40 60 80 100 Percentage

90UR9K

WORLDWIDE LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

Electronic equipment production growtii to accelerate to 7^% in 1991 from 5.4% in 1990 Growth to peal( at 8.6% in 1992 Noncomputer semiconductor growth up sharpiy Greatest semiconductor growth opportunities within data processing - smart peripherals and subsystems Asia/Pacific and Japan are fastest-growing regions In 1992 Rising trade protectionist sentiment and production cost minimization necessitate evenly distritnited, regionalized production Eastern Europe and China - emerging markets (?)


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

SUMMARY

In the near term: • 5.4% worldwide electronic equipment production growth

forecast in 1990 • Semiconductor consumption fueled by a few healthy

application markets - (0.7%) worldwide overall semiconductor consumption growth - 3J6% worldwide nonmemory semiconductor consumption growth

in the long term: • 8.6% worldwide electronic equipment production

peak growth forecast in 1992

• PC boom extending to smart peripherals



Dataoyest acon^nyof The Duri & Bradstreel Corporation

tldtt'nmM& 04nanr>!]Biin

Dataquest's Ninth Annual SEMICON/West Seminar Status 1990 May 23, 1990

Semiconductor industry Status David L. Angel

Vice President and Director of Worldwide Research Semiconductor Industry Service




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WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET Billions of U.S. Dollars

60

50

40

30

20

10

itir,;:

1: llilii 111111

MILIIIJ

• !f»tt: 1 ........

Ilillll!

11

11 •••i

Ilillll

Ilillll

iiiiiji -iiiiiiii

:l:::=li

illlljl

Ilillll

-

Ol£ 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990

Source: Dataquest

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Forecast: 1990 and Beyond



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WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY REVENUE GROWTH FORECAST

Percentage

40

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Souice: Dataquest

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OUTLOOK

• Peak of next boom will be in 1993

• Market will surpass $100 billion in 1993

• MOS memory will remain fastest-growing segment

• Bipolar digital memory and logic will continue to decline due to BiCMOS alternative

• Stabilizing factors now occurring

• 1990: A year of challenges

Somce: Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

IDMiWA4.ua

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REGIONAL OUTLOOK

•

North America

CAGR 1989-1994 --15% (1990 down 3%) Slow, steady growth

• Slower GNP growth In 1990 than in 1989 • Workstations, PCs, laser printers, rigid disk

drives are market drivers • Will grow slightly faster than Japan through 1994 • Will remain second-largest market through 1994 • Consolidation will become significant

Somce: Dataquest

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REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Japan

• CAGR 1989-1994 -13.5% (1990 down 2.0%) • Flat market in 1990 • Changing from export-driven to domestic demand-driven

economy • Will remain largest market through 1994 • Will be slowest-growing market through 1994 • Fax machines, laser printers, PCs are driving markets • China's political instability hurting Japanese exports • GNP will remain strong in 1990

Somce: Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company ot The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose; CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

miAjnîLB iWrti9<iv>)<6l

REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Europe

• CAGR 1989-1994 - 1 5 % (1990 up 2%) • PCs will continue to be market driver • Fierce PC and DRAM competition from Asian

suppliers • GNP growth will be faster than in U.S., although

U.K. is suffering • Long-term growth equal to North America • Will maintain market size position at #3 through

1994, in spite of Asia/ROW Source: Dataguest

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REGIONAL OUTLOOK

Asia/Pacific

• CAGR 1989-1994 -20.1% (1990 up 6.0%)

• Personal computers are the name of the game in Taiwan

• Mergers, acquisitions, marketing channels are key

• Domestic demand picking up volume from decelerating exports

• Hong Kong companies moving some operations to Thailand and Malaysia

• Fastest-growing market through 1994

• Will remain smallest market through 1994

Souice: Oaiaquest



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TOP 10 MERCHANT SEMICONDUCTOR COMPANIES' WORLDWIDE REVENUE IN 1989

1988 Rankings

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

NEC ,,, Toshiba

Hitachi Motorola

Fujitsu Texas Instruments

Mitsubishi Intel

Matsushita Philips

2 3 Billions of Dollars

4

Souice: Dalaquest

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WORLDWIDE ELECTRONICS MARKETS 1989 Shipments

^ Data Processing ^ Consumer M Industrial M Communications Ei Transportation M Military

Total = $701.2 Billion Soufce: Dalaquest



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WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION BY APPLICATION MARKET

1989

Total :» $57.0 Billion

@ Data Processing

^ Consumer

H Communications

M Industrial

00 Transportation

@ Military

Soufce: Oalaquest

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1989: ANATOMY OF A MARKET Memory and Micros: The Industry Drivers

Billions of Dollars



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PRODUCT FORECASTS

Memory

ASIC

Micros

Analog

|flrti7tfi5.<Ufl o4ae/go:ANGl

PRODUCT FORECASTS

Micros



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WORLDWIDE MOS MICROPROCESSOR FORECAST

Millions of Dollars

7,000

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1989 WORLDWIDE MOS MICROCOMPONENTS TOP 10 SUPPLIERS

1989 Ranking

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

1988 Ranking

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

13 9

(Millions of Dollars)

Intel NEC Motorola Hitachi Mitsubishi Toshiba Texas Instruments Matsushita Chips & Technologies Fujitsu

1988 Revenue

1,835 790 699 525 381 346 234 230 130 202

1989 Revenue

1,929 937 803 554 435 407 252 217 216 211

Percent Change

5% 19% 15% 6%

14% 18% 8%

(6%) 66%

4%

1989 Market Share

23.5% 11.40/b 9.8% 6.8% 5.3% 5.0% 3.1% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

Souice: Dataquest



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PRODUCT FORECASTS

f . . . •' •lir - .;

A$IC

1 ' f

• * • • f

.1^

• •

© 1990 Dataquest Incorporated May 23 — Reproduction Prbhibited

Dataquest Incorporetfed, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

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ASIC FAMILY TREE

Programmable Logic Devices

(PLDs)

ASIC Family Tree

Gate Arrays Cell-Based ICs (CBICs) Fuil-Custom tCs

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ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE ASIC CONSUMPTION BY TECHNOLOGY

Millions of Dollars

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Souice: Dataquest

© 1990 Dataquest Incorporated May 23 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation

1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

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1989 WORLDWIDE ASIC TOP 10 SUPPLIERS

1988 Rank

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

10 9

1989 Rank

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

(Millions of Dollars)

Fujitsu NEC LSI Logic Toshiba Advanced Micro Devices AT&T Texas Instruments Hitachi VLSI Technology National

Total Nols: 1989 revenue estimaies are preCininary.

Gate Arrays

621 548 420 299 24 46 28

263 47

106 2,402

ASIC TRENDS

CBICs

48 27 37

101 0

257 155

6 122

12 765

PLDs

0 0 0 0

314 0

91 0 0

42 447

Total

669 575 457 400 338 303 274 269 169 160

3,614

Souice: Dataquest

BRTUllM MMflo-AMSI

Gate Arrays

• Significant cut in design starts

• Heavy revenue impact from chip sets

• More complex PLDs will affect gate arrays

• Severe price competition

• BiCMOS: the new frontier

• RISC processors going on-chip Souice: Dataquest



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ASIC TRENDS

Cell-Based ICs

• Tied closely to application markets • Good growth forecast • Will not catch gate arrays • Mixed-mode designs grow in popularity • Testability a major challenge • RISC processors to become critical cell

in CBIC library

Souice: Oalaguest

bithlAiM oiheii»jM&\

ASIC TRENDS

PLDs

PLDs will become alternative to gate arrays - Watch for offshore competition

Market driven by diverse architectures and innovative applications - Growth In complex PLDs

Most new ideas coming from new entrants

Souioe: Dataquest



|fl6Aifta».M0 (wawDo-.ANjj I

PRODUCT FORECASTS

1 L>n-J!r •

•

Analog

aii<'n>iT.rU& ouTrnttSS}

ANALOG FAMILY TREE

Analog

Hd Monolithic ICs

1 Hybrids

I General-Purpose

Analog ICs

I

T special-Purpose

Analog iCs

1 Analog ASICs

I Consumer

ICs

1. Telecom

ICs

VsJtage Regulators/ References



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WORLDWIDE ANALOG 10 FORECAST 1988-1993

Billions of Dollars

20

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Souree: Dalaquest


1290 (bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

mfiSBa.ua

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1989 WORLDWIDE ANALOG TOP 10 SUPPLIERS

(Millions of Dollars) ,^ ^ * 1989

1989 1988 1988 1989 Percent Market Ranking Ranking Revenue Revenue Change Share

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

1 2 5 3 7 6 4

11 9 8

Toshiba National Semiconductor Sanyo Philips Motorola Texas Instruments NEC SGS-Thomson Mitsubishi Matsushita

569 540 471 466 425 426 469 352 395 423

572 558 530 522 445 417 415 393 384 376

(1%) 3%

13% 12% 5%

(2%) (12%) 12% (3%)

(11%)

6 .1% 5.9% 5.6% 5.6% 4.70/b 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4 . 1 % 4.0%

Souice: Dataquest

BiifaigJUa outttMjî

THE ANALOG MARKET

• Rivals memory as largest IC segment • Less cyclical than digital products • Long life cycles • Design intensive rather than process intensive • Very fragmented in:

- Products - Markets - Suppliers -Applications


1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

tieiMiiUi imfi^*N6\

THE ANALOG MARKET

Analog Is key to . . .

• Automotive electronics

• HDTV and consumer electronics

• Smart power and home automation

• High-resolution computer graphics and video

• Disk drive electronics

• Mixed-signal ASICs

lawiTOM.iiaa ovUho-Aiii

PRODUCT FORECASTS

Memory

•-



UiMUim IMHiltJMt

MOS MEMORY FORECAST Billions of Dollars

20

15

10

^ DRAM ^ SRAM

-Nonvolatile-Other

S

^

11 ill ill

ilî,

I

a

* •

^1

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Souice: Dataquest

tmMUiM iKnmiMt6\

1989 WORLDWIDE MOS MEMORY TOP 10 SUPPLIERS

1989 Ranking

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

1988 Ranking

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

10 9 8

(Millions of Doiletfs)

Toshiba NEC Hitachi Fujitsu Mitsubishi Texas Instruments Samsung Sharp Oki Semiconductor Intel

1988 Revenue

1,516 1,490 1,114 1,067

966 834 650 344 353 392

1989 Revenue

1,918 1,739 1,534 1,265 1,161 1,095

935 476 473 433

Percent Change

27% 17% 380/0 19% 20% 3 1 % 44% 38% 34% 10%

1989 Market Share

11.7% 10.6% 9.40/b 7.7% 7.1% 6.7% 5.7% 2.9<M) 2.90/0 2.6o^

Souice: Dataquest



»UiMiM i)i0>mifMA\

ASP (Dollars)

ESTIMATED WORLDWIDE 1Mb DRAM PRICING

Quarterly: 1987-1990

18

14

10

R -

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1987 A^ 1988 4- 1989 4- 1990 •

Source: Oataquest

MlWwjUa otiitm-MISi

1990 OUTLOOK FOR 1Mb DRAMs

• First quarter oversupply

• Continued price erosion

• Possible political intervention

• Throttle-back of DRAM production

• Increased availability of SRAMs and PSRAMs

• Potential supply glitch during recovery

• Difficult 4Mb introduction SouiCK Dalaquest


1290 Bidder Parl< Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

HWIfao JM iwgtnTjwil

WORLDWIDE SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET Billions of U.S. Dollars

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94

Year

Actual 1 Forecast

' ! ^

i^<*i

1 [ H H I • • • •

11:1

0i ;::::

:iiii

^ ^

iiiii

iK*

n lliil

• m S ! •

::;!:

if ftf

=111 Hi I

/ •

-

d

ijiii

;::;:

/ *•

•

111 III

III

f

ii.

Illi-

i m

M

•M

$111.6M

$8&0M

$1&0M

Sourca: Ddaquesl



Dataquest jturnpaifvoJ rhc Puiiik'iiradurEeLCorpafBiion

m n >curnpaifyoJ

Dataquest*s Ninth Annual SEMICON/West Seminar Status 1990 May 23. 1990

New Manufacturing in tlie Submicron Decade

Mark 7. Reagan Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service




AGENDA

Line geometries

200mm manufacturing

Newfabs

Cost of a fab

Capital spending

pUMMJUB MBBBSgl

AGENDA

Line geometries



CONVERGING TECHNOLOGIES: ASIC AND DRAM LINE GEOMETRIES

Line Geometry, Microns

1.6

1.4

1.2

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

\NX\\\\mV\VV\NN\x\ss\ ^^^^^

t""'t Average Gate Array Average DRAM-Leading-Edge DRAM

n - ^ • " ^ ^ 16Mb

' 'i'iWjS^^S^^^S^^ iiSWl

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Souice: Dolaquest

THE ONE-MICRON BARRIER

• 79 submicron lines worldwide

• Submicron lines represent 10.4 percent of all installed fab lines

• All 200mm lines have minimum linewidths at or below one micron



AGENDA

Line geometries

200mm manufacturing

Writ«»<».M6 €»M.<htflai

RUNNING TOTAL OF 200mm CAPACITY PER YEAR

Four-Week Capacity MSI

40

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Soiflce: Oataqueit


1290 Ridder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

TOTAL 200mm CAPACITY BY COMPANY BY THE END OF 1992

Four-Week Capacity US\

10

IBM NEC Toshiba Texas Fujitsu NIhon Sam- Hitachi Mitsu- Atmel Siemens Instr. sung bishi

Souce: DMaquest

tuuuiui uuumui

AGENDA

• Line geometries

• 200mm manufacturing

• New tabs


1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose. CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

ESTIMATED NEW FAB LINES WORLDWIDE R&D and GaAs Not Included

Number of Ribs

60

KMMflflHB-^V «•»•»*••«»•

f * * • ' ' * ' « ' • • ••««v*vA. i**4«*F*»

> * • ' > •« • - • •m-m*****^ V4.*4*P4B *VHB««H«-A F V H B - H 4 4 I - « 4 « H * H * H ^tfp^F** - ' Ffl^Bv**^^' a * * * * ^ ^ t * * * * ' * * * >«.f»«.ki*' ««>*»«4I • l * 4 4 t > * * , • • » « « » 44 * .****< • •*«*>*** ••wt^^^mmw *«.*.•««».» t - * * * * * * * * , *->••« » v *t.4*4ffV • *«4ri***k i » p t * « » f l v r * * * * * * -> * • • * * « * * I v * * * *-*-*« . » • . * • * * * 4 . » • » * « • • ivfevll-*** ,pBH«iB»

* r r * * * * + « » • • » * • « tMMtt**^ r i l B V f l l l l h*« • * - • * ' < * H « I B * ' * 4

Wt-**tW^*' I f l l V B V H I B I 1 1 4 * * * * *

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

Sounw:

mtuiMMia asBssim

NEW CAPACITY BY REGION 1990 and 1991

• Japan ^ North America OD Asla/Paclfic-ROW • Europe

Souioe: Daiaqiiest


1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

NEW SUBMICRON CAPACITY BY REGION

1990 and 1991 • 49% of total capacity will be submicron • Submicron portion is split as follows:

• Japan ^ North America OD Europe • Asia/Pacific-ROW

Some: Dataquest

tmi^jMS laiMJiBti

NEW PLAYERS IN JAPAN

• Asahi Micro Systems

• Honda

• Isuzu

• Kawasaki Steel

• Kobe Steel

• Nippon Steel

• Nissan Motor

• NKK Steel

• Sumitomo Metal Mining

•TDK

• Toyota



AGENDA

• Line geometries

• 200mm manufacturing

• New tabs

• Cost of a fab

imwtJUB hosassfEn

ESTIMATED COST OF A NEW DRAM FAB Millions of Dollars

600

64K 256K 1Mb 4Mb DRAM Density

16Mb 64Mb

Souree: Oalaquest



FAB COST AMORTIZED OVER BOTH TIME AND PRODUCT

Span of 12 to 15 Years

DRAMs SRAMs Gate Arrays

CBICs MPUsMCUs Gate Arrays

Aneiiog Standard Logic Optoelectronic

Now Later

imwuiia mwfcftBki

AGENDA

Line geometries

200mm manufacturing

New tabs

Cost of a fab

Capital spending



WORLDWIDE CAPITAL SPENDING FORECAST Billions of Dollars

30

25

20

15

10

1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 Souree: Dalaquest

us d^<fatWKI

ESTIMATED TOP 10 SEMICONDUCTOR CAPITAL SPENDING, 1994

Millions of Dollars

1.400

1.300

1,200

1.100

1,000

900

800

•liijiliilll •lililBlillllWIflM

B E F Company

H

Somoe: Oolaquest

© 1990 Dataquest Incorporated May 23 — Reproduction Prohibited Dalaquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation


EtetaQuest jccHTipanvof The Dun HI' hfadstird Carporatre

•

Dataquest's Ninth Annual SEMICON/West Seminar Status 1990 May 23. 1990

Some Key Performance IMeasures of tlie

Semiconductor Equipment industry Joseph Grenier

Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service Dataquest Incorporated

• © 1990 Dataquest Incorporated May 23 — Reproduction Prohibited


IbtMiilUA o»n«o:J?IEl

AGENDA

Three key performance measures of the semiconductor equipment industry

Status of the industry

MiMi^MUg

THREE KEY PERFORMANCE MEASURES

• Operating Income

• R&D expenditures

• Sales per employee



BfeWrtJUa Mfiao3HE1

OPERATING INCOME

Net sales Cost of sales SG&A expense R&D expenditures

Operating income Interest expense (income) Extraordinary items Income taxes

Net income

\auuMm <*i«(tea«i

OPERATING INCOME AS PERCENT OF SALES

* Fiscal 1989

Novellus Coqnex AoDlied Genus

BTU SVG KLA

Varian Tylan

FSI Lam ASM K&S

P/Therm MTI

Teradvne Nanometrics

OSI LTX

•L/yfJA.'.fliVl^tÂfJJ-.'-JJXfJ-JJlfyfJJljJJ:^ -lUîyUMUUkUWUUlACÛVyYirtAA^^ y^KÂA^ftAf^!A^^*w^fJ*^>^^

^ ^

K!;i.«s»tKti

t^'i>i'^sl

Arerage ^ 10JO%

-20 -to 10 Percent

20 30 40

Sowce: Company Literature Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of Ttie Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

lflo«iwxi».Ma Mim:i«\

R&D EXPENDITURES AS PERCENT OF SALES

Fiscal 1989

LTX OSI Lam

Nanometrics Coqnex

"KLA Applied

Teradyne FSl

SVG Novellus

K&S ASM MTI

RTThenn Genus

BTU Ty\sa\

^SSSSSISSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS^^

'wwmmmmmmm!mi!g!^m>mm!3

^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^

mmmm

^'imifmimiimmmi^m^î

immmmHi^m^

Airerage - ia4%

10 15

Percent 20 25 30

Source: Company Literatuie Dataauest

»iUiUiUa WWctAMI

OPERATING INCOME PLUS R&D

A Pool of Funds

Net sales - Cost of sales - SG&A expense - R&D expenditures

Operating income

Operating Income + R&D Expenditures Equals

A Pool of Funds that Can Be Traded Off Souice: Oalaquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

lUiiMii.iJA ^linnJMI

OPERATING INCOME PLUS R&D EXPENDITURES AS PERCENT OF SALES

Fiscal 1989

Cognex Novellus Applied

KLA Genus

Lam SVG OSI FSI

eru K&S

Teradyne ASM

P/Therni MTI

Nanometrics IVIan

LTX Percent Sowce: Company Literature

Dataquest

l8iWiilaiio.iMd oMiiito&gl

OPERATING INCOME PLUS R&D EXPENDITURES

Rscal 1989 Millions of Dollars

^ j p.„-^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ j . . . . ^ ["~XJ«Maij;sy''i-jRaga_tyî_imwa-^î.^^^^-^^^^—^•_

^ . ^

Source: Company Literature Dataquest



HWwni.na <elxsh&.iKl

R&D EXPENDITURES Fiscal 1989

Millions of Dollars

80

^V Sotnce: Coinpany t-iteraluie Oataquest

IgaMahâa Wfei^;ti«|

HOW DO EQUIPMENT COMPANIES STACK UP?

1989 R&O Expenditures - U.S. Companies

Percentage of Sales

Equipment Companies

Semiconductor Companies

Electronics Industry

IBM

Souree: Dataquest



BitoiHUia OMMîX]

SALES PER EMPLOYEE Fiscal 1989

Novellus Genus

Applied Lam

Cognex KLA FSI

BTU Tylan

Nanometrics SVG

RTThenn OSI MTI LTX

Teradyne K&S

wvyy^^*ffl^ffyy>yyKyy>^

^!^^îi££^S£i^S^S2S^£2^^£S^^^^^^^^^££^

p^^^^^^^^^J l!iJ!<ii»S«j«i^»j&iiJ$$;j;i«!»îBB^^H

Average - $146|W0

100 200

Thousands of Dollars 300 400

Souice: Company Litenture Dalaqijest

omtMm auiifeft<s«i

FRONT-END VS. BACK-END COMPANIES 1989 Sales Per Employee - US. Companies

$190j000

•5H!H?ta

|:j«ugjiu^

mmm*MMM>iM*MiHmiiiHMminniiiii

$102,000

Front-End Companies

Back-End Companies

SoMce: Oataquest



igii<8*r>ii.ia o^<i^/gi:aKi

NET INCOME AS PERCENT OF SALES Front-End vs. Back-End

U.S. Equipment Companies Percentage

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

J? ? i l ^ ^

fj ;* • • : ! : i . ^ iiv^-;!' - " ^

Front-End .V Companies .W

. - . j j ! ™ . , 5 ^ ^

Back-End Companies

s s = ^

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Souice: Dataquest

mm)ii.m <im«itea«i

HOW DO EQUIPMENT COMPANIES STACK UP?

1989 Sales Per Employee - U.S. Companies

$146,000

$99,000

$126,000

$163,000

Equipment Semiconductor Electronics Companies Companies Industry

IBM

Souce: EIA Company Utetatuie Odaquest



IWcoBoiMMi o«;^«(36:a«l

THE FABULOUS FABLESS 1989 Sales Per Employee - U.S. Semiconductor Companies

Average S/C Company

Fabbed S/C Company

Fabless S/C Company

Souice: Oalaquest

THE FABULOUS FABLESS 1989 Net Income as Percent ot Sales -

U.S. Semiconductor Companies

iga<Wii*.iua t*<iMM-.awi

Average S/C Company

Fabbed S/C Company

Fabless S/C Company

Souice: t}ataquest



IMWmi.MB ifUttri^K]

1989 SALES PER EMPLOYEE U.S. Semiconductor Companies with Fabs

100 150 Thousands of Dollars

2&0

Souce: Compaiy Literature Dataqusst

laofemaaJija <iinhîo:it£\

Status of the Industry



MaiiiiMA ittiMi£K\

EQUIPMENT COMPANY SALES TRENDS Sales by Quarter

Millions of Dollars

800

600

400

200

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Souice: CJataquest

BBsaama lAM iSi

ESTIMATED WAFER FAB EQUIPMENT MARKET Worldwide

Billions of Dollars

14

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Souice: Oaraquest



I.ya <iHihlt.am\

1.2

SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT BOOK-TO-BILL RATIO

^ ^ Front End ^ ^ Assembly

Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July ^ j g Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Soiiic«:SEMI



DataQuest a company ol The DunSTBradstrccl Corporation

" n n a company oi

Dataquest's Ninth Annual SEMICON/West Seminar Status 1990 May 23, 1990

Wafer Fab Equipment Ikênds In the 1990s

Krishna Shankar Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service




AGENDA

Forces driving the fab equipment market in the 1990s

Fab equipment market and technology trends

Integrated processing market trends '

Future scenarios for fab equipment configuration

Conclusions

mmtuMK asBsam

CONVERGING TECHNOLOGIES: ASIC AND DRAM LINE GEOMETRIES

Line Geometry, Microns

1.6

1.4

1.2

1

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

1989

T ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ' ^ ' ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ j f ^ ; ^ ^ ^ ^

Average Gate Array Averse DRAM-Leading-Edge DRAM

^ " ^ ^ ^

16Mb

^>K*5*NS»!^!*«!>!S!»SSS>!

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

SowoK Mtaquest


1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose. CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

DRAMATIC INCREASE IN MASK/ETCH LAYERS Number of Mask/Etch Layers

256K 1Mb 4Mb DRAM Generation

16Mb 64Mb

Soma:

ASIC FABS DRIVE INTERCONNECT TECHNOLOGY

Number of Interconnect Levels

5

10K 100K 200K Gate Array Density

500K

S(MO«: Dataquest



MICROPROCESSORS AS TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS

Chip Feature 1989 1990

Transistor Count Technology Clock Speed Instruction Execution

283,000 1.4^CM0S

32 MHz 29 mips peak

580,000 0.95^ CMOS

61 MHz 58 mips peak

Sowce: ISSOC1990

yumnua

16Mb DRAM AS TECHNOLOGY DRIVER

IBM at the Leading Edge

Feature

• O^micron CMOS technology • Deep UV lithography • Excimer laser lithography • 0.15-micron shallow junctions

• Tungsten plugs • Lithography cluster • Diffusion cluster • Thin films cluster

Comment

• Uses deep trench capacitor • Step-and-scan tool • 245nm excimer laser stepper

• Titanium silicide used

• Blanket tungsten etchtiack • Integrated track and steppers • Integrated thermal processing • Integrated deposition/etch

8auree:iBM



ESTIMATED COST OF A NEW DRAM FAB Millions of Dollars

600

64K 256K 1Mb 4Mb DRAM Density

16Mb 64Mb

Sowce:

AGENDA

• Forces driving the fab equipment market in the 1990s

• Fab equipment market and technology trends

• Integrated processing market trends

• Future scenarios for fab equipment configuration

• Conclusions



WMmjua maBaan

FAB EQUIPMENT MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

Engines Driving Submicron Processes

• Lithography management

• Thin films management

mim*Miii msBfom

LITHOGRAPHY MARKET TRENDS FOR THE 1990s

Millions of Dollars

3.500

© 1990 Dataquest Incorporated May 23 — Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corpwration


LITHOGRAPHY

Trends for the 1990s

Interest reemerging in mix-and-match - 5:1 steppers with projection aligners - 5:1 steppers with 1:1 steppers Future mix-and-match strategy - 1-line with e-beam - Where does this leave excimer laser

and x-ray aligners? Two compact SORs soon to see first "light" New e-beam machines being introduced

SouiOO: DOMiquQSt

wmMkjm MBWSPn

STEPPER TRENDS FOR THE 1990s

Keep Your Eye on 1-Line G-line may fade faster than expected A lot of activity in i-line - Japanese semiconductor manufacturers

very interested in i-line - Stepper manufacturers introducing new systems I-line lens heating problem is solved I-line advantages - More depth of focus - More process latitude - Good for two generations of DRAMs

Source: Mbquest



FAB EQUIPMENT MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

Engines Driving Submicron Processes

• Lithography management

• Thin films management

•wwitMa WBgawi

THIN FILMS MARKET TRENDS FOR THE 1990s Millions of Dollars

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

CVD PVD Silicon Epitaxy Dry Etch Dry Strip

1989 1994 Sowoe: Oaiaquesi



INTERCONNECT TRENDS FOR THE 1990s

More than half the cost of submicron processes in the 1990s will be due to use of multilevel interconnect technology

The choice of the optimum interconnect scheme, together with the appropriate processing equipment and materials, will be crucial to cost-effective submicron manufacturing

Sowoe: Danquest

CVD EQUIPMENT


• Development of cost-effective, production-worthy CVD processes

• Selective tungsten, aluminum, and copper for submicron processes

• ECR CVD for low-temperature, planarized dielectrics

• Integration of CVD into cluster tools Soufoe: EMaquest



PVD EQUIPMENT


Incorporation of PVD with CVD into cluster tools

Growth of sputtering equipment market with three- and four-level metallization

Excimer reflow of sputtered aluminum?

Sowoe: Daiaqiiest

DRY ETCH EQUIPMENT


• High-selectivity, low ion damage equipment development

• Low-temperature etch processes for submicron processes

• In situ particle monitoring, plasma diagnostics

• Refinements to ECR and MERIE etch equipment

Souce: maquea



AGENDA

•

•

Forces driving the fab equipment market in the 1990s


Integrated processing market trends


Conclusions

THE PROBLEM

• Increasingly complex submicron processes are more sensitive to process-related defects

• Availability of reliable thin films deposition and etch equipment is a bottleneck in cost-effective submicron processing

SOUOK


1290 Ridder Park Drive, San Jose. CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

THE SOLUTION: INTEGRATED PROCESSING SYSTEMS -

THE WAVE OF THE '90s

• Advantages of integrated processing systems: - In situ film deposition and etch - Lower defects - Faster turnaround time - Ease of automation

• Today's rigid muitichamt>er tools (RMTs) are precursors to tomorrow's flexible cluster tools (FCTs)

• FCTs will integrate areas such as dry clean, CVD, PVD, dry etch, RTP, and silicon epi

•wmtijB aanaro

SCHEMATIC OF A RIGID MULTICHAMBER TOOL

Process Chamber

#2

Process Chamber

<3

/ \ Wafer

/Robolte /-e Uan/ l lar

Process Chamber

#1

Loadtock Chamber

Computer and Communications

^ i ommon UHlftlcs Irtput



SCHEMATIC OF A FLEXIBLE CLUSTER TOOL

ecu Link

11 CCUUnk

e c u Unk

CCUUnk

e c u Link e c u Unk

Output

rr m n

CX:UUnk

e c u Link

INTEGRATED PROCESSING SYSTEMS

Some Future Market Scenarios

New players: Wafer handling platform vendors, systems integrators, service companies? Synergistic partnership among equipment vendors Big, vertically integrated device companies will procure modules and assume ownership Emergence of "super" equipment vendors offering one-stop hardware, process, and service Timely, practical, worldwide standards fail to develop: The status quo prevails!

Souioe: OOtoquest

© 1990 Dataquest Incorporated May 23 - Reproduction Prohibited Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation


AGENDA

Forces driving the fab equipment marlcet in the 1990s


Integrated processing market trends


Conclusions

mmmuimmKsm

FAB EQUIPMENT TRENDS FOR THE 1990s Islands of Automation

A 7 ^ ^ / ^

Thin Films Deposition/Etch/Strip

Island

Nt

Lithography Island • ^ • ^

In Situ Metrology/Process Control

" f Implant Island

- - -

"S ^ \

Diffusion Tube Island

^ ^

Souree:

1990 Dataquesl Incorporated May 23 — Reproduction Prohibited


AGENDA

• Forces driving the fab equipment market in the 1990s

• Fab equipment market and technology trends

• Integrated processing market trends

• Future scenarios for fab equipment configuration

• Conclusions

CONCLUSIONS

Skyrocketing costs of submicron fabs

Fab equipment industry in consolidation

Lithography and interconnects drive technology

Increasing process and equipment integration

Fab equipment industry faces a momentous decade

Souioe: Dataquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

DataQuest acoriHianyfrf TheCXin& Bradstreet Corporation

•WMtrtJiB BBaSWI

Dataquest's Ninth Annual SEMICONAVest Seminar Status 1990 May 23, 1990

Staying In the Materials Race through the '90s

Mark FitzGerald Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Service




wumuti Hnmm\

LEADING-EDGE TECHNOLOGY

Leading-edge technology today will be the middle of the pack in the year 2000

Leading Edge

Technology Scale Souice: Dataquest

maMUMB. anoBm

SETTING THE PACE . . .

DRAM Technology

Semiconductor Materials



tuaum

THE MILESTONES

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

1 ,,,,, 1, 1

(

.....:::lL.i:..|

4Mb

16Mb

64Mb

256Mb

Gigabit

02 0.4 0.6

Minimum Linewidtli (M) 0.8

Sowce: Dataquest



UMMUt tOBS^m

SILICON WAFER SIZE TRENDS

1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 4Mb 16Mb 64Mb 256Mb Gigabit

Wafer Size (mm) Wafer Size (inclies)

150 6

200 8

200 8

200 8

250 10

Souioe: Dalaquest

tiitettUB hrtrtftBTI

SILICON WAFER SIZE DISTRIBUTION North America

1989

1994

1999

• ZOOfnm Other

p 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400

MSI Souice: Dataquest



•Urtttf ja ePiSEHTI

Density

DRAM DIE DIMENSIONS

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Mils

200 400 600 800 1.000 Mils

Souioe: ISSCC Itehnical R^wis

Btrta»JU6 mhMetn\

HURDLES FOR SILICON WAFER MANUFACTURERS

Invest in 200mm wafer equipment

Expand epitaxial wafer capacity (64Mb)

Meet tighter specs: flatness, resistivity



mumuunamsm]

THE COMPETITORS Worldwide Sales

Shin Etsu Handotai (SEH)

Huels AG MEMO

Mitsubishi Metal Corp.

Osaka Titanium

Komatsu Electronic Matls.

Wacker

Toshiba Ceramics

Others

100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Millions of Dollars Somce: Dataquest



•iifciijiia Mhtwfiri

PHOTORESIST TRENDS

1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 4Mb 16Mb 64Mb 256Mb Gigabit

Photoresist Type G-line G-line DUV DUV X-ray

1-line X-ray

SouRX: [MaqiM6t

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PUSH TO EXCIMER

• G-line - the technology of the 1980s

• G-line systems continue to improve - Alignment systems - High N.A. lenses - Wide-field lenses

• Prevailing g-line strategy - Push g-line to limits - Excimer laser steppers - l-llne an interim technology

Sowce: Dataquest



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PUSH TO 1-LINE

G-line may fade faster than expected A lot of activity in i-iine - Japanese semiconductor manufacturers very

interested in i-line - Stepper manufacturers introducing new systems 1-line lens heating problem is solved 1-line advantages - More depth of focus - More process latitude - Good for two generations of DRAMs

Source: Daiaquea

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X-RAY RESISTS

• Current market is insignificant - R&D evaluation - No production

• X-ray resist volume anticipated in 1995 - 2 years after linewidth crosses 0.4 micron (1993) - 256Mb DRAMs

Sowoe: Dataquest



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HURDLES FOR PHOTORESIST MANUFACTURERS

• Position company for change at excimer and the x-ray stepper introduction

• High degree of technical support

• Globalization

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TOP 10 RESIST SUPPLIERS, 1988

(Estimated Revenue, Millions of Dollars)

Company Worldwide U.S.

1. Tokyo Ohka 2. Shipley 3. Hunt 4. Hoechst 5. KTI 6. JSR 7. Dynachem 8. Giba-Geigy 9. Macdermid

10. Baker

$ 70 45 36 15 14 9 6 5 3 2

$ 7 25 17 10 9 0 5 1 3 2

Total $205 $79 Souree: Daiaquest


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

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GASES TRENDS

1988 1997 2000

Liquid Process Gaseous Process Killing Defect

Size (|im)

35% 65%

0.15

10% 90%

0.05

0 100%

0.03

Soiace: Chiydon Lanabee liBxas lnsbxjiiioi4s



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THE MOVE TO HIGHER PURITY

Purifiers

< >

On-Site Management

< >

Plant Modification

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VENDORS' RESPONSIBILITY FOR MAJOR SEGMENTS OF GAS SYSTEMS

JA^ tithl ! • •Distribution! Etffrir^în ; ;

1990

\sissm ^ H ij.iiiMnUi.ii :^mt

nm^ ; Rmnm

ilftMIMI ;

2000

iPislrilautionl BEsa

IJ !>l i-] • EQuiDmentlj

svmn

Sowce: Daiaquest



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PLANTS PRODUCING HIGHER PURITY

Capital cost

Operating cost

Plant output reduced

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GAS COMPANY INTERRELATIONSHIPS Japan

Daido Sanso Joint Venture

United States

AlrPtxxhicfs

Overseas Operation

Europe

Air Products

Osaka Sanso

t

Joint Venture Aifco

Parent Company of Airco

BOCUd.

1

Teisan

+

Sane Parent Company

Liquid Air

F^rent Company ofUqukJAir

LMr Uqulde

1

Iwatani Joint Venture

UndefUCC

Overseas Operation

Mdheson/UCC

Nippon Sanso Parent Company

of Matheson Matheson

Sowce: Dalaquest



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CONCLUSION

• Shift in technology

• Closer materials vendor-equipment-DRAM manufacturing relationship

• Large capital investment



DataQuest a company of The Dun & Bradstieel Corporation n n 4!.5?!?.p??y«°

Dataquest's 9th Annual SEMICON/West Seminar May 23, 1990

It'ends in Pacicaging: Tiie Drive toward

Higli-Density Interconnect Stan Bruederle Vice President

Components Group Consulting Dataquest Incorporated



AGENDA

• Worldwide IC package market

• Emerging technologies analysis

• Applications demand analysis and forecast

• Strategic issues and opportunities

• Summary

AGENDA

Worldwide IC package market



ESTIMATED 1989 WORLDWIDE PACKAGING TRENDS

North America

Japan

Europe

Asia/Pacific • •

10 IS Billions of Units

m

WORLDWIDE PACKAGE CONSUMPTION 1989 - SMT versus TH

Total Surface Mount

Soiace:



SURFACE-MOUNT TECHNOLOGY END-USE SEGMENTS -1989

End Use

Driving Force

%oflCs Consumed

Dominant SMT Approach

Japan

Computer

Performance

39%

SO/Quad/TAB

North America

Computer Automotive

Speed/Performance

32%

SCVCCATAB

EiHope

telecom

Reliability

17%

sonAB

ROW

Consumer

SmaHSize

12%

SO

AGENDA

Worldwide 10 package market

Emerging technologies analysis


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & BradSreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Park Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

In the next decade, more performance strides

will be made through improvements in semiconductor packaging

than through semiconductor technology

Tomorrow, multichip modules will offer system-level cost savings

AND significant performance

improvements



MULTICHIP MODULE (MCM)

A collection of multiple die anranged in a thin-film multilayer interconnect structure that functions as a single integrated circuit, bridging the gap between printed circuit boards and wafer scale integration

AGENDA

Worldwide IC package market

Emerging technologies analysis

Applications demand analysis and forecast



MCM DRIVERS

Supercomputers Laptop PCs Workstations Graphics terminals Storage devices Switching devices Optical communications Personal office equipment Portable communications Satellite communications

PACKAGING ROAD MAP Pin Count 1.000-

500-

128-

1980 Through

Hole

1985 Surface Mount

1990 Systems

Packaging

1995 Ctistom

Packaging



PACKAGING EFFICIENCY AREA OF SILICON/PACKAGE

Linewidth (^m) 300

250

too Substrate Efficiency (%)

MICROPROCESSOR CLOCK RATES Motorola arxl Intel

10 Clock Rate (MHz)



INTERCONNECT TECHNOLOGIES Price OjOI/inî

10.000-

1.000

100-

MCM

MLB«MT

PC&fT^H

10 H 1 1 I * 100 1.000 10.000 30y000

Circuit Density, in/in^

MULTICHIP MODULE ACTIVITY

Advanced Packaging Systems Alcoa British Aerospace Holz Industries Hughes Aircraft 101 Array Technology IDT Kyocera Mars Electronics Midway Mosaic Multichip Technology

N + 1 Nara N-Chip Oki Polycon Polylithics Raychem Rogers Silicon Connections Thorn EMI Unistructure


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Bidder Parl< Drive, San Jose, CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

AGENDA

• Worldwide 10 package market

• Emerging technologies analysis

• Applications demand analysis and forecast

• Strategic issues and opportunities

CRITICAL ISSUES

DESIGN REOUIREMENTS

SIMULATION OF MULTICHIP DESIGNS

TEST PROGRAM GENERATION

COMPLETE SOFTWARE DESIGN VERIFICATION REQUIRED



CRITICAL ISSUES

MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS

SUBSTRATE TECHNOLOGY

INTERCONNECT TECHNOLOGY

HEAT DISSIPATION REQUIREMENTS

COST/PERFORMANCE TRADE-OFFS

STANDARDS

CRITICAL ISSUES

MANUFACTURING REQUIREMENTS

CRITICAL DIMENSIONS/TOLERANCES

FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURING^

MAKE/BUY ALTERNATIVE

PPM QUALITY VS REWORK



MULTICHIP MODULES WILL CREATE A WHOLE NEW CLASS OF COMPANY

Function

Wafer Fab

Assembly, Test

PCB Assemt)ly

System Assembly

Current

Semi Mfg.

Semi Mfg. SutxxMitfaclor

System M^. Sutxxmtractor

SystemM^.

Future

Semi Mfg.

Semi Mfg.? Module Mfg.? System Mfg.?

System Mfg.

THE ELECTRONICS MANUFACTURING CHAIN

Component Manufacturing Equipment Manufacturing

•

Semiconduclor Fabricalion

' r

Dflvioe Assembty

1 rJ

Board AasMnbly

-n^

AflBWnliy

1 ^

Module Manufacturing (Emerging


Dataquest Incorporated, a company of The Dun & Bradstreet Corporation 1290 Ridder Park Drive San Jose CA 95131-2398 / (408) 437-8000 / Telex 171973 / Fax (408) 437-0292

MULTICHIP MODULES ARE COMING

• Semiconductor clock rates will push above 50 MHz in near future

• Multichip modules provkJe means of taking advantage of these clock rates

Price premiums in marketplace will support development of the technology

Surface mount has prepared market to accept packaging innovations

•

MULTICHIP MODULES WILL CHANGE THE INDUSTRY

Semiconductor and PCB assembly will be combined Leading semiconductor manufacturers will sell modules Opportunity will be created for module manufacturers System houses will license module technology Multichip module users will win in their markets



PACKAGE MARKET SHARE

Percent

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 2000

Worldwide ViSI Packaging Issues and Tnnds

. jp-^/'

y >^"r=*- H i l

V. / ^ -^y-N^

9

19S8 /

2000

rfliill j f f

J

A multidient study examining existing and emerging VLSI packaghfig trends.



DataQuest iHiinnartyt^ TIK liun K'tttndftrrrt CoqtvalHxi

Documents

The ninth annual semicon/west seminar: status 1990, 1990archive.computerhistory.org/resources/access/text/...Ihe brochure was mailed directly to me Someone in my ccsmpany gave me the