The Next Pacific Islands Regional

Climate Assessment

Webinar & Meeting | October 4, 2016 | East-West Center, Honolulu

Zena Grecni | grecniz@eastwestcenter.org Program Specialist, Pacific RISA

Sustained Assessment Specialist, PIRCA

Webinar Road Map

• Intro to PIRCA & the U.S. National Climate Assessment

• The Second PIRCA

• The Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4)

• Timelines for NCA4 and PIRCA

• Next Steps

• Your input: Topics, Case Studies, Formats

2012 PIRCA Products Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts

• Full Report

• Case Studies

• Executive Summary

• NCA Pacific Islands chapter (2014)

www.eastwestcenter.org/PIRCA

Perceived credibility of the PIRCA

Source: S. Moser, 2013

Comparison of media coverage for NCA

technical input reports

Comparison of All Reports (A) and Regional and Sectoral Reports (B), in Descending Order

(Source: Combined data of tracked news by E. Cloyd and S. Moser for the PIRCA)

The 2nd PIRCA

• Updated scientific knowledge

– New key findings

• Responsive to user input and newly available information

• Key findings in sectors of interest

• Online formats; easy to access

• A draft will serve as a technical input to the U.S. Nat. Climate Assessment (due Jan. 15)

PIRCA Survey http://www.surveygizmo.com/s3/3054997/Nominate-PIRCA-Author

Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services

and Biodiversity (47%)

Ocean and Marine Resources (47%)

35%

29%

Indigenous Communities (28%)

n = 111

Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4)

• Mandate for national report every 4 years

• Led by United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)

• NCA4 due in 2018 (last report published May 2014)

Link to NCA3: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/

NCA4 Regional Chapters

9

• The “main course” of NCA4

• ~20 pages/region, with region-specific sectoral focus areas, case studies, etc.

• Overseen by a Federal Coordinating Lead Author (CLA)

• Driven by non-fed Regional Chapter Leads

NCA4 Chapters • I: Overview

• II: Our Changing Climate

• III: National Analyses • Water

• Energy

• Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity

• Oceans and Marine Resources

• Coastal Effects

• Agriculture and Food Production

• Forests

• Land Cover and Land Use Change

• Transportation

• Built Environment, Urban Systems, and Cities

• Human Health

• Air Quality

• Energy, Water, Land Nexus

• Tribal and Indigenous Communities

• North American and Other International Effects

• IV: Regional Analyses • Northeast

• Southeast and Caribbean

• Midwest

• Northern Plains

• Southern Plains

• Northwest

• Southwest

• Alaska

• Hawai`i and Pacific Islands

• V: Response • Near-term Adaptation Needs and Increased Resiliency

• Mitigation: Avoiding and Reducing Long-term Risks

10

11

20

16

Sep: Call for Authors

Sep: Fed Chapter Lead Authors Selected

Oct: Non-Fed Regional Chapter Leads Selected

Oct-Dec: Author Meetings/Drafting

20

17

Jan: Release Chapter Outlines

Jan: Technical Inputs are Due

Jan-Mar: Regional Engagement Workshops

Jan-Jun: Drafting and Internal Reviews

Jul-Dec: Report Aggregation and Reviews

20

18

Public and National Academies Reviews and Response

Layout and Production

Release and Engagement

12

20

16

Sep: Call for Authors

Sep-Oct: PIRCA Call for Authors (due Oct 15)

Sep: Fed Chapter Lead Authors Selected

Oct: Non-Fed Regional Chapter Leads Selected

Oct: Lead Authors Invited; First Author Meeting

Oct-Dec: Author Meetings/Drafting

Nov-Dec: Drafting Technical Input

20

17

Jan: Release Chapter Outlines

Jan: Submit Technical Input (Outline for PIRCA)/ Technical Inputs are Due

Jan-Mar: Regional Engagement Workshops

Jan-Jun: Drafting and Internal Reviews

Jan-Sep: PIRCA Drafting and Internal Reviews

Jul-Dec: Report Aggregation and Reviews

Dec-early 2018: Release and Engagement

20

18

Public and National Academies Reviews and Response

Layout and Production

Release and Engagement

NCA4 | PIRCA

13

Nominate PIRCA Authors

http://www.surveygizmo.com/s3/3054997/Nominate-PIRCA-Author

Take the survey http://pacificrisa.us6.list-

manage1.com/track/click?u=85fbb6c4d2e0cfa07c10fbc88&id=0b85691

1dd&e=f948db74de

Submit case study ideas via survey or

send to us

Questions?

Please introduce yourself through phone or computer audio, or type your question into the

chat box

What do you think?

• Which topics or sectors would be most useful to you if included in the next climate assessment?

• Which formats do you prefer/use for getting information? – Briefs or executive summaries (1-2 pages)

– Reports (hard copy or pdf)

– Websites

– Email newsletters

– Blogs

– Social media posts

Zena Grecni, MEM Project Specialist, East-West Center +1 808 944 7242 GrecniZ@EastWestCenter.org

Victoria Keener, PhD Principle Investigator for Pacific RISA, East-West Center +1 808 944 7220 KeenerV@EastWestCenter.org

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