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The New Zealand
vehicle fleet: fact
and fiction
Iain McGlinchy. Principal Adviser, Technology and Transport Systems March 2015
In 2014 4.4 million kiwis owned:
• ~ 2,700,000 light petrol vehicles
• ~ 550,000 diesel powered light vehicles
► mostly vans, utes light trucks and 4WDs (very few cars)
• ~ 120,000 diesel heavy vehicles (trucks and buses)
• ~ 110,000 motor bikes
• ~ 30,000 mopeds
Among these are:
• ~ 12,000 hybrid vehicles (~0.4% of the fleet) NB This is an underestimate
• ~ 1,200 CNG powered light vehicles
• ~ 3,600 LPG powered light vehicles
• ~ 425 electric light vehicles (ie cars)
• ~ 80 electric trolley buses
• ~ 1 electric truck
• ~ 120,000 pre-1980 vehicles
• ~ 14,000 pre-1940 vehicles
The NZ vehicle fleet
About 96% (3 million) of our vehicles on road are light vehicles (ie cars, 4WDs,
vans, utes and light trucks)
Light passenger
80.4%
Light commercial
11.8%
MCycle3.6%
Trucks3.5%Bus
0.3%
Other0.5%
Percentage of the fleet (2013)
The NZ vehicle fleet: where is the fuel used?
► The 4% (~120,000) that are heavy vehicles responsible for ~ 21% of fuel used
► The 12% light commercials use nearly 17% of the fuel
Light passenger
fleet62.1%
Light commercial
fleet16.6%
Motorcycle0.4%
Heavy fleet20.8%
Percentage fuel used (2013)
► 4
600
650
700
750
Ve
hic
les p
er
10
00
po
pu
latio
n
Period
Light fleet ownership per 1000 population
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
Nu
mb
er
of
hu
man
s an
d o
f ve
hic
les
Vehicle fleet and population
Total fleet Population
Fleet size
•The size of the New Zealand vehicle fleet has been increasing pretty much since records began
•In 2007, growth tapered off and remained almost flat for 6 years
•But fleet size grew again in 2013 and 2014
•NZ’s population has grown since 2000s, so per capita values for ownership (and travel) fell until 2013 but have grown again in 2013 and 2014
2007 2012
► 5
600
650
700
750
Ve
hic
les p
er
10
00
po
pu
latio
n
Period
Light fleet ownership per 1000 population
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
Nu
mb
er
of
hu
man
s an
d o
f ve
hic
les
Vehicle fleet and population
Total fleet Population
Fleet size
•The size of the New Zealand vehicle fleet has been increasing pretty much since records began
•In 2007, growth tapered off and remained almost flat for 6 years
•But fleet size grew again in 2013 and 2014
•NZ’s population has grown since 2000s, so per capita values for ownership (and travel) fell until 2013 but have grown again in 2013 and 2014
2007 2012
► 6
Why did the fleet grow in 2013 and 2014?
There is a strong relationship between vehicle imports and building
consents, which are an indicator of people’s willingness to borrow
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Exch
ange
Rat
e (
Ye
n t
o N
Z$)
Nu
mb
er
of
veh
icle
s
Monthly vehicle registrations of all light vehicles vs building permits Jan 2000 - Dec 2014
Registrations of used light vehicles All light vehicles Number of building consents issued
► 7
Vehicle fleet travel
•Travel has remained remarkably constant since 2003, despite economic changes•Growth in travel in 2013 is probably in response to increase in vehicle fleet size•Per vehicle travel has fallen pretty consistently for light vehicles over last decade
20
25
30
35
40
Bill
ion
Ve
hic
le k
m
Period
Total Fleet Travel (1988 – 2013)Light travel Heavy travel
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
An
nu
al km
pe
r ve
hic
le
Average annual travel per light vehicle (2001 – 2013)
► 8
Vehicle ownership is not uniform
throughout New Zealand
► 9
Significant regional variation in ownership levels
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
Ve
hic
les
pe
r 1
00
0 p
op
ula
tio
n
Regional vehicle ownership (2013)Light vehicles per 1000 popn
Least vehicles in Gisborne and Wellington, most in Canterbury and Nelson/Marlborough
Least vehicles per 1000
Most vehicles per 1000
► 10
Average age varies widely throughout country
Data provided by NZ Transport Agency. It is not consistent with other age data presented here
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Ave
rage
age
in y
ear
sMean fleet age of all light vehicles in local government
regions (Dec 2014)
Auckland Wellington
Auckland City
North Shore
Waitakere
ChristchurchWellington City
Waimate District
Manukau City
► 11
Average age varies widely throughout country
Data provided by NZ Transport Agency. It is not consistent with other age data presented here
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Ave
rage
age
in y
ear
sMean fleet age of all light vehicles in local government
regions (Dec 2014)
Vehicles get older as you go south!
► 12
Average age of light vehicles
•The trend for increasing age as you
go south is not as clear if we map it
•Clearly see the younger fleets in the
cities
•Oldest fleets are in middle of the
South Island
•Queenstown stands out as an
anomaly
•We do not know why the age
increases!
Map of average age
of light vehicles
(Dec 2014)
► Blue is younger than
average,
► Red is older than average
► 13
Auckland
Wellington
Christchurch
Waimate District
Queenstown
The New Zealand vehicle fleet is aging!
We have an old fleet by OECD standards
•Average age of light vehicles 13.79 years old
•Average age of heavy vehicles 15.7 years old
► 14
The New Zealand vehicle fleet is aging!
We have an old fleet by OECD standards
•Average age of light vehicles 13.79 years old
•Average age of heavy vehicles 15.7 years old
Lots of stories in newspaper and online
► 15
It is true that the average age of vehicles in our fleet has
been steadily rising since around 2000
Trend is aging, but perhaps not as dramatic as it looks
The fleet got younger (by 0.1 years)
in 2014 for first time since 2000
► 16
11
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
14
14.5
Veh
icle
age
(ye
ars)
Average age of light vehicles in NZ fleet
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Veh
icle
age
(ye
ars)
Average age of light vehicles in NZ fleet
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Entry and exit of light vehiclesEntry Exit
En
tere
dE
xite
d
What will happen to fleet age in coming years?
► Short answer is we don’t know what will happen to average age!
► The Ministry has spent a lot of
time trying to model the aging of
the vehicle fleet
► We found that the rates of
scrappage are more important
than imports, but are virtually
impossible to predict accurately
► Although imports were up in
2013 over previous years, 2013
had the lowest level of vehicle
scrappage since 2002!
► 2014 data shows scrapping did
increase a little, but fleet
continued to grow
► 17
-300000
-200000
-100000
0
100000
200000
300000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Entry and exit of light vehiclesEntry Exit
En
tere
dE
xite
d
What will happen to fleet age in coming years?
► Short answer is we don’t know what will happen to average age!
► The Ministry has spent a lot of
time trying to model the aging of
the vehicle fleet
► We found that the rates of
scrappage are more important
than imports, but are virtually
impossible to predict accurately
► Although imports were up in
2013 over previous years, 2013
had the lowest level of vehicle
scrappage since 2002!
► 2014 data shows scrapping did
increase a little, but fleet
continued to grow
► 18
Fleets are aging in many countries
5
7
9
11
13
15
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Ve
hic
le a
ge (
year
s)
Average age of light passenger vehicles fleets
NZ
US Trucks
US Cars
Japan
EU
Australia
Most fleets got older, except AustraliaMainly a result of improved rust prevention
► 19
THE REAL QUESTION IS WHY IS
THE NZ FLEET SO MUCH OLDER
THAN OTHERS?
► 20
Theoretical age profile of a developed country vehicle fleet
0102030405060708090
100
Nu
mb
er
of
veh
icle
s
100% of vehicles enter new, then slowly leave due to accidents and mechanical reasons.
► 21
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
240,000
Ve
hic
les
Year of manufacture
Light fleet vehicle year of manufacture Dec 2013
Age distribution of NZ light vehicle fleet (Dec 2013)
1996
► 22
► We have a completely disproportionate number of vehicles built 1995 – 1997
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Number of light vehicles of each year in NZ fleet (Dec 2014)
Age distribution of NZ light vehicle fleet (Dec 2014)
► 23
► Second peak forming with surge in imports in 2013 and 2014
2005
It is the bulge of Japanese used vehicles that is getting
older
Average age of NZ New vehicles is staying pretty constant while Japanese-used rising steadily
► 25
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
Ave
rage
age
(ye
ars)
Average age of the light passenger vehicle fleet (2000 - 2014 )
Light passenger NZ New Light passenger Used Import
EVERYONE KNOWS NEW
ZEALAND HAS AN OLD AND
INEFFICIENT FLEET!
BUT, DOES VEHICLE AGE MATTER
Newer vehicles tend to be safer
On average, variables for road safety do improve with younger vehicles
Injury risk by year of manufacture (with 95% confidence limits)
Source: Vehicle safety ratings estimated from Police reported crash data: 2012 update Monash 2012
1996
► 28
And in general, newer vehicles produce less harmful
emissions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1974 1977 1979 1983 1988/90 1994 1997/99 2002/04 2005 2009
Year of Standard
Percentage reductions in Japanese diesel emissions with changing standards
NOx PM10
► 29
BUT WHAT ABOUT FUEL USE?
Fuel use vs fleet size
• There is very little evidence that age
and fuel economy are linked
• Since 1987 (when reliable data starts
for vehicle fleet) there has been a
very close relationship between fuel
use and size of fleet (R2 = 0.94)
• Appears other variables, like state of
economy, (or changes to fleet age)
are not strongly affecting fuel use
Fuel data from “All Domestic Transport” at http://www.med.govt.nz/sectors-industries/energy/energy-modelling/data/oil
► 31
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Tota
l nu
mb
er
of
veh
icle
s
Fue
l use
(P
J)
Vehicle fleet and fuel use
Land transport fuel use (from MED) Total fleet
Engine sizes of older vehicles are usually smaller
Average age of scrapping
Average age of fleet
Average age of used vehicles entering the fleet
On average, if you replace a vehicle with a newer model, the replacement will have a larger engine. But trend has shifted in recent years with move away from big petrol to 4WD diesel
► 32
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Engi
ne
siz
e (
CC
)
Age of vehicle (in years)
Average engine size of vehicles of given age in the NZ light fleet
2001
2005
2012
On average, older vehicles travel less
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Dis
tan
ce t
rave
lled
per
ye
ar (
km)
Age of vehicle (years)
Average distance travelled per year by vehicle of given age (2000- 2013)
If you replace an older vehicle with a younger vehicle, on average it will travel further
Average age of scrapping
Average age of fleet
Average age of used vehicles entering the fleet
► 33
Quick conclusions
►This means, that on average, if we had a younger fleet (as a result of
actively getting rid of our existing older vehicles) the resulting fleet would
probably have a larger engine size and travel further than our current
fleet!
►Actively intervening to create a younger fleet to reduce CO2 emissions,
would probably not work
►However, if the size of the fleet shrinks as older used vehicles are
scrapped (and if they are not replaced) then fuel use may also fall
►MOT analysis also shows that the increased risk (exposure) from
increased travel means safety dis-benefit from adding newer vehicles
► 34
Older vehicles
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Numbers of registered pre-1980 vehicles in the NZ fleet
2015 2010
Older vehicles travel less
► There are only 150 vehicles in the pre-1910 box so I doubt the travel figure is real!
but only until 30
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
km p
er
year
Average travel per vehicle in the fleet at Dec 31st 2014
BUT HAVEN’T VEHICLES GOT
MORE EFFICIENT OVER TIME?
Efficiency vs weight
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
0
5
10
15
20
25
wei
ght
in k
g
Lite
rs/1
00
km
Fuel economy and weight of selected Holden Commodore models 1980 - 2002
City highway Weight (kg)
Data provided by Australian govt official (pers com). Checked against published figures where
possible.1.2l 1.8l
1.2l 1.8l
Much of the benefit of
increasing technical efficiency
has been traded off against
weight and increased power
► 38
Efficiency vs weight
Source: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/fetrends.htm
US data suggests fuel economy (MPG) actually got worse between 1980s and mid-2000s
► 39
Divergence between rated fuel consumption and real real
world in independent European testing
Source: http://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_LabToRoad_20130527.pdf
• European research also shows that steady divergence between fuel economy measured by manufacturers compared with results from real world driving
• Strong suggestion from this and Japanese data that manufacturers build cars to pass the test, not for real world
• This may partly explain why we are not seeing expected changes in the fuel economy in the real world
• Also, other variables, like congestion may also have gotten worse over this time
► 40
All light petrol vehicles – divergence in FE (%)
► This is data from MOT research comparing real word fuel use vsmanufacturers published figure
► A small number of petrol vehicles are more fuel efficient than would be expected from the type approval numbers
► There is some correlation between real-world and type approval FE values
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
0 4 8 12 16 20 24
FC_NEDC
FC
_U
NIV
EH
Y = 0.81X + 2.78; R2 = 0.55
Fuel consumption (drive cycle) l/100km
Fu
el co
nsu
mption (
rea
l w
orld
) l/1
00
km
Light petrol vehicles: Divergence in fuel economy
►The trend for vehicles to use more fuel than test values state is clear for NZ light petrol –divergence is increasing
% difference (Mean)
% difference (Median)
CC difference (Mean)
CC difference (Median)
► Data from 2015 MOT study of real world fleet fuel use: http://atrf.info/papers/2015/files/ATRF2015_Resubmission_9.pdf
WHAT ABOUT RISING FUEL
PRICES, WONT THAT MAKE
PEOPLE DRIVE LESS?
Fuel prices have fluctuated significantly over past decade
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Cen
ts/litre
km
(m
illio
ns)
Quarterly light petrol travel and real regular petrol price
Light petrol travel Real Petrol price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Cen
ts/litre
km
(m
illio
ns)
Quarterly diesel travel and real diesel price
Light diesel travelHeavy/medium diesel travelReal Diesel price
► 44
Seems to be little (or no) response to fuel price in travel patterns
IF JAPAN HAS POLICIES TO
PROMOTE EFFICIENT VEHICLES,
WONT THESE ENTER NZ?
Many countries, including Japan have legal and financial
incentives to encourage fuel efficient cars
Japanese tastes in vehicles have changed markedly and are now
quite different from NZ
But this doesn’t mean that NZers will import these, given a choice
Top Sellers in Japan last five years: 1,300cc hatchs
and more recently, hybrids
Top import in NZ last 5 years 2,000cc wagons
► 46
Many countries, including Japan have legal and financial
incentives to encourage fuel efficient cars
Both stories in 6 Feb AutoFile (http://autofile.co.nz/issues/Current/autofile_6Feb-online%20version.pdf)
Sales of hybrids in Japan are subsidised. This is not good
news for NZ
Since 2012 around 1/3 of new vehicle
sales in Japan have been hybrids!
Hybrids are now about 5% of Japanese
fleet
Subsidies (and popularity) mean that
hybrids are not depreciating as quickly
as other vehicles.
In turn this means NZ importers cannot
buy in Japan to sell in NZ at a
competitive price.
Imports of used hybrids (and electrics)
are much lower than sales in Japan
would suggest we should get (<1%)
► 48
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Registrations of new and used hybrids and electric vehicles
(2005 - 2014)
New electric Used electric New hybrid Used hybrid
WON’T NEW EMISSIONS
STANDARDS LEAD TO IMPROVED
FUEL ECONOMY?
Won’t emissions standards improve fuel economy?
No!
Essentially there is no link between the (harmful) emissions
standards and fuel economy.
This is because the technology that reduces pollution is downstream
of the engine so doesn’t alter the amount of fuel that is burned.
► 50
It turns out a Ferrari can be significantly cleaner than a
Honda Jazz, but it still uses three times more fuel
Source:www.vca.gov.uk 2006 models
Honda Jazz 1.2 DSI S Ferrari Superamerica 5.7
LDifference
0.467 g/km of CO 0.186 g/km of CO 40%
0.086 g/km HC 0.053 g/km HC 62%
0.043 g/km NOx 0.062 g/km NOx 144%
129g CO2/km 499g CO2/km 387%
► 51
Contact
Iain McGlinchy
Principal Adviser
Technology and Transport Systems
Ministry of Transport
(04) 439 9295
www.transport.govt.nz
► 52
