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© OECD/IEA - 2007
The New World Energy Orderand Implications for
Climate Change
Dr. Fatih BirolChief Economist
International Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Reference Scenario:
World Primary Energy Demand
Global demand grows by more than half over the next quarter of acentury, with coal use rising most in absolute terms
02468
1012141618
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
billio
n ton
neso
f oil e
quiva
lent
02468
1012141618
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
billio
n ton
neso
f oil e
quiva
lent
Other renewablesBiomassHydroNuclearGasOilCoal
© OECD/IEA - 2007
The Emerging Giants of World Energy
China & India will contribute more than 40% of the increase in global energy demand to 2030 on current trends
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total energy
Coal Oil Nuclear Hydro Power sectorinvestments
Rest of the worldIndiaChina
Increase in Primary Energy Demand & Investment Between 2005 & 2030 as Share of World Total
© OECD/IEA - 2007
The Emerging Giants of World Energy
China & India will contribute more than 40% of the increase in global energy demand to 2030 on current trends
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total energy
Coal Oil Nuclear Hydro Power sectorinvestments
Rest of the worldIndiaChina
Increase in Primary Energy Demand & Investment Between 2005 & 2030 as Share of World Total
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Global Oil Supply Prospects to 2015
Oil supply/demand balance is set to remain tight
In total, 37.5 mb/d of gross capacity additions needed in 2006-2015
13.6 mb/d to meet demand & rest to replace decline in existing fields
OPEC & non-OPEC producers have announced plans to add 25 mb/d through to 2015
Thus, a further 12.5 mb/d of gross capacity would need to be added or demand growth curbed
Otherwise, a supply crunch cannot be ruled out
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Index of average of Top 5 IOCs’Reserves Replacement Ratio
The current reserve replacement ratio of top 5 IOCs has fallen, and its becoming more difficult to replace reserves
despite rising oil prices
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200620
25
30
35
40
45
50
55Top 5 IOCsBrent
dolla
rs pe
r bar
rel
0
50
100
150
200
250
300ind
ex* (
1992
=100
)
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Proven Natural Gas Reserves
Gas reserves are also concentrated – Russia and Iran together account for almost half of global gas reserves
World total: 183 tcm as of 1 January 2007Source: Cedigaz
8.0
7.0
5.8
14.5
57.9
73.913.6
2.7
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region, 1900-2005
Over the last century, China has contributed only 8% of global emissions & India 2%
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
1900 1915 1930 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
millio
n ton
nes
Rest of the world33%
India2%
China8% Japan
4%
European Union23%
United States30%
Cumulative emissions
© OECD/IEA - 2007
China & India in Global CO2 Emissions
Around 60% of the global increase in emissions in 2005-2030 comes from China & India
Cumulative Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
0 100 200 300 400 500
United States
European Union
Japan
China
India
billion tonnes
1900-20052006-2030
© OECD/IEA - 2007
CO2 Emissions from Coal-Fired Power Stations built prior to 2015 in China & India
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
2006 2015 2030 2045 2060 2075
millio
n ton
neso
f CO 2
Existing power plants Power plants built in 2005-2015
Capacity additions in the next decade will lock-in technology & largely determine emissions through 2050 & beyond
© OECD/IEA - 2007
World’s Top Five CO2 Emitters
2005 2015 2030
Gt rank Gt rank Gt rank
US 5.8 1 6.4 2 6.9 2
China 5.1 2 8.6 1 11.4 1
Russia 1.5 3 1.8 4 2.0 4
Japan 1.2 4 1.3 5 1.2 5
India 1.1 5 1.8 3 3.3 3
China becomes the largest emitter in 2007 & India the 3rd largest by 2015
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Global CO2 Emissions and Climate Change
Global CO2 emissions rise to 42 gigatonnes in 2030, 57% above current levels and double the 1990 level
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
billio
n ton
nes
42 Gt
27 Gt+57%
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Population without electricity, 2006
In 2030, if no major new policies are implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion people without electricity.
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Alternative Policy Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Increase in Net Oil Imports, 2006-2030
New policies reduce global oil demand by 14 mb/d by 2030, cutting sharply the need for imports
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
OECDNorth America
OECDEurope
OECDPacific
China India Other Asia
mb/d
Reference ScenarioAlternative Policy Scenario
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Global Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
Global emissions will increase by 57% in the Reference Scenario,but they level off in the Alternative Policy Scenario
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
billio
n ton
nes (
Gt) Reference Scenario 42 Gt
Alternative Policy Scenario
34 Gt
19%
27 Gt
© OECD/IEA - 2007
India’s Local Pollution
New policies reduce substantially emissions of SO2 and NOx– largely from coal-fired power plants, cars & trucks
Alternative Policy Scenario
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
millio
n ton
nes
Reference Scenario
SO2
NOx
© OECD/IEA - 2007
How to go beyond?
© OECD/IEA - 2007
CO2 Emissions - 450 Stabilisation Case
In line with G-8 appeal in Heiligendamm, by 2030 emissions are reduced to some 23 Gt
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gt of
CO 2
CCS in industryCCS in power generationNuclearRenewablesSwitching from coal to gasEnd Use electricity efficiency
End Use fuel efficiency
Reference Scenario
450 Stabilisation Case27 Gt
42 Gt
23 Gt
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Average Annual Power Generation Capacity Additions in the 450 Stabilisation Case, 2013-2030
So what would the ‘450ppm Stabilisation Case’ mean in practice?
22 CCS coal-fired plants (800 MW)
20 CCS gas-fired plants (500 MW)
30 nuclear reactors (1000 MW)
2 Three Gorges Dams
400 CHP plants (40 MW)
17 000 turbines (3 MW)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Other Renewables
Wind
Biomass and waste
Hydropower
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Coal CCS
GW
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Public Energy Research and Development Funding in IEA Countries
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
billio
n doll
ars (
2006
)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
EfficiencyFossil fuels CCSRenewablesNuclear HydrogenStorage technologiesOther
Share of energy R&Din total R&D (right axis)
Share of public budgets for energy R&D in total R&Dfell over 50% in the last two decades
© OECD/IEA - 2007
Conclusions
Global energy system is on an increasinglyunsustainable path
China and India are engines of global energy demand -- countries putting economic development as top priority
Next 10 years are critical
Road to Copenhagen – a way out ?