THE NEW WAVE OF TERRORISM:

THE ISIS CASE

THE NEW WAVE OF TERRORISM: THE ISIS CASE

Wise Men Board Report

June 2015

THEORETICAL INFORMATION

Waves of Terrorism:Anarchist waveEthnic waveIdeological waveReligious waveCyber wave

Anarchist Wave

Ideological Wave

Ethnic Wave

…

Iran Revolution & Invasion of Afghanistan

Technological Revolution

Religious Wave

Cyber Wave

HOW RELIGIOUSLY MOTIVATED TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS EVOLVE?

• Religiously motivated terrorist organizations thrive in global instabilities, power gaps and failed states.

• When oppressed and exploited countries in the last century are analyzed, nearly all Muslim countries could be mentioned in this group.

HISTORICAL PROCESS

The emergence of the new wave of terrorism:

Occupation of Afghanistan by the Soviet Union (1979)

Invasion of Afghanistan by the US (2001)

Invasion of Iraq by the US (2003)

FROM AL-QAEDA TO ISISSoviet

Occupation of

Afghanistan

Al-Qaeda came into

being

The US invasion of Afghanistan

Al-Qaeda’s rapid growth in

Afghanistan and subsequently

Iraq.

Al-Tawhid wal-Jihad

organization formed in

2000.

FROM AL-QAEDA TO ISIS

“Al Qaeda in Iraq” in

2004

The US invasion of Iraq

Abu Ayyub al-Masri became the new leader

Group renamed as

Islamic State in Iraq (ISI)

(2006)

ISIL separated from Al-Qaeda in February

2014.

ISI expanded into Syria, and

changed its name again as “Islamic State in Iraq and Levant’’ in 2013.

CURRENT SITUATION OF ISIS

Leader:

Abu Bakr al Baghdadi

(2003 – Present)

ISIS-controlled areas in Iraq

ISIS-controlled areas in Syria

• Taking control of a vast geographical area

• Establishing a pseudo-state apparatus

• Employing strategic and tactical principles in using its force against hostile armed forces

• Ability to self-finance

DIFFERENCES OF ISIS FROM OTHER TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS

ISIS ideology comprises Wahhabism, antagonism against the West and terrorism

Although ISIS is a religiously motivated terrorist organization, it has implemented Mao’s three phase strategy

The strategy involving strategic defense, strategic balance and strategic offensive phases is usually implemented by separatist terrorist organizations

Strategy of ISIS

Systematic airstrikes Support for actors on the

ground Humanitarian assistance International

counterterrorism activities

American Strategy against ISIS

TURKEY’S EXPECTATIONS FROM WEST

Establishing buffer and safe zones and declaring no-fly zones in northern Syria

Hindering the Assad regime’s airstrikes on Hama, Homs and particularly Aleppo

Halting the flow of refugees to Turkey

Regime change in Syria

TERRORISM THREAT: PKK/KCK AND ISIS

PKK/KCK, exploiting the settlement process in Turkey (2013-2015), has organized its PYD branch in northern Syria through the Assad regime’s support

PYD has also gained support from the Western countries against ISIS

PYD might have an autonomous state in northern Syria and could be a serious headache for Turkey

On the other side, Kurdish independence in northern Iraq is also a possibility in near future

ISIS-controlled areas in Iraq

and Syria

POLICY PROPOSALS

Multiculturalism and cross-cultural harmony

Fatwas against the distorted religious references

Among diverse opinions, optimal approach should be built

Informing every segment of the society correctly (media and political parties)

Turkey’s foreign and security policy should be redefined

Intelligence capacity should be developed

Turkey shouldn’t participate in combat operations in Iraq and Syria

ISIS cells and contacts in Turkey should be closely watched

Refugee camps should be efficiently inspected