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The New Ireland Fund, Inc. Ireland – “Brilliant and Balanced” - recovery keeps outpacing the rest.
Noel O’Halloran Portfolio Manager and Chief Investment Officer Kleinwort Benson Investors International Ltd.
• Ireland • Strongest growing economy in Europe
• Europe • Recovery but facing challenges
• New Ireland Fund (“IRL”) • Growth • Value • Yield
New Ireland Fund: investment case
3
Ireland macro update
• Growth
• Economic fundamentals improving
• Economic policies
Ireland: positive trends continue
Economic growth leader in Europe
Data for 2016 is KBII forecast
Beating deficit reduction targets
-10.6
-8.6 -7.5
-5.1
-2.9
-8.5 -8
-5.5
-4
-1.5 -1.2
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f
%
Target Actual/Estimate
Source: NTMA, Kleinwort Benson Investors, April 2016
Fiscal Deficit as % GDP, vs target
Competitiveness gain (20%+ cut in labor costs)
7
Employment improving steadily
8 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Unemployment Rate(%, Ireland)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20154
6
8
10
12
14
16
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE : Ireland
General Election results – what now?
• No single party obtained a majority
• While not a certainty, most likely outcome is minority government
• FG and FF have both been in government in recent years, both have fairly conventional economic policies, both seen as market-friendly
• Protest parties do have support, but they are not ‘in the picture’ for government formation
• Overall: most likely outcome is continuation of successful economic policies
9
10
European macro update
• Modest, but positive growth • 1.7% forecast for 2016 & 2017*
• Accommodative ECB policies
• Low energy costs benefit consumer & manufacturing • But some headwinds
Europe slowly recovering
*Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook January, 2016 (Euro Area GDP Growth Projection)
ECB policy of asset purchases & negative rates
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15
Deposit Rate Main Refinancing Rate
ECB Key Interest Rates
12 Source: European Central Bank, Bloomberg
ECB Deposit Rate at -0.4% as of March 2016
ECB policy benefits - Ireland issues 100 year bonds at 2.35% yield in March 2016
Weak euro a significant boost to exports
13
Approximately two-thirds of Irish exports are with U.S., U.K. and other non-Euro countries*
Source: Kleinwort Benson Investors, March 2016 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Euro/USD Exchange Rate
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20151.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
US $ TO EURO (WMR&DS)
Significant improvement in eurozone economy
14
Irish companies benefit from access to larger Eurozone and U.K. markets
Brexit
• Vote on June 23rd • Polls extremely close at this point • Reasonable expectation is that voters opt for ‘certainty and safety’
and vote ‘remain’ • A ‘leave’ would be a negative and in particular for the UK rather than
Europe as a whole • Ireland has strong economic ties to the UK and a ‘leave’ vote would
be a negative • A risk that I have to factor in while constructing the portfolio at
present
15
16
Portfolio update & themes
• Actively managed, concentrated portfolio • Investment themes
• Positioning in the market
Investing in New Ireland Fund (“IRL”)
IRL portfolio sector diversification
20.7%
19.8%
13.6%
12.8%
9.9%
4.8%
5.0% 3.8%
3.5% 4.1%
Sector Breakdown March 31, 2016 Airlines
Construction Materials
Hotels, Restaurats &LeisureOther
Food Products
Building Products
IndustrialConglomerates
Specialty Retail
Commercial Banks
Marine
18
Portfolio investment themes
#1 Domestic economy exposure
#2 Quality companies geared to European recovery
#3 World class companies
Comparing growth rates and valuation
02468
1012141618
P/E ratio(12mo.forward)
Earnings Growth % (12mo. forward)
IRL 14.8 17.9MSCI Europe 14.6 4.9
20 Source: Kleinwort Benson Investors, Thomson Reuters Eikon, at April 10th, 2016
IRL has stronger growth at similar p/e valuation to the MSCI Europe index
Managed distribution
Distribution
Current Quarterly Distribution* $0.326 per share
Annualized Distribution Yield – Market Price** 9.99%
Annualized Distribution Yield – NAV** 8.64%
21
*The Fund pays a managed distribution currently at a rate of 8% of the October 30, 2015 NAV. The distribution may include income, capital gains and return of capital. **As of April 15, 2016
Managed distribution provides stable quarterly cash flow
New Ireland Fund vs ISEQ and S&P 500
22
Strong performance supported by earnings growth, quality of companies
As of April 15, 2016
IRL: positioning in a diversified portfolio
0.8%
30.2%
15.3%
14.5%
13.7%
4.9%
20.6%
MSCI Europe Country Allocation
IrelandU.K.FranceSwitzerlandGermanySpainOther
23 Source: MSCI, BlackRock, MSCI Europe IMI Index (USD) as of January 29, 2016
Broad European indices provide little exposure to Ireland
Disclosures
An investment in the New Ireland Fund, Inc.'s shares (the “Fund”) represents an indirect investment in the securities owned by the Fund. The value of these securities, like other market investments, may move up or down, sometimes unpredictably. At any point in time, Fund shares may be worth less than a shareholder's original investment, even after taking into account the reinvestment of Fund dividends and/or distributions. An investment in the Fund is subject to investment risk, including the possible loss of the entire principal amount invested in the Fund. The Fund is a non-diversified, closed-end investment company under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and focuses its investments in a single country, thereby increasing its vulnerability to developments in that country. Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as currency fluctuation and political and economic changes and market risks. This may result in greater share volatility. Fund shares are not FDIC-insured and are not deposits or other obligations of, or guaranteed by, any bank. Shareholders may obtain a hard copy of the Fund's complete audited financial statements free of charge upon request. This may be done by writing to the Fund at: The New Ireland Fund, Inc c/o BNY Mellon Center One Boston Place 201 Washington Street, 34th Floor Boston, MA 02108 Or contacting the Fund at 1-800-GO-TO-IRL ( 1-800-468-6475)
Disclosures
This material may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, without the express prior written consent of Kleinwort Benson Investors International Ltd. The information contained in this material has not been filed with, reviewed by or approved by any securities regulatory authority and recipients are advised to consult with their own independent advisors, including tax advisors, regarding the products and services described therein. The views expressed are those of Kleinwort Benson Investors International Ltd (KBI) and should not be construed as investment advice. KBI does not represent that this information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase any security, product or service including the Fund, any group trust or other fund managed by Kleinwort Benson Investors International Ltd., or any of its affiliates (collectively, “Kleinwort Benson Investors”). The information contained herein does not set forth all of the risks associated with this Fund, and is qualified in its entirety by, and subject to, the information contained in other applicable disclosure documents relating to the Fund. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance and the value of investments may go down as well as up. All ISEQ data is provided “as is”. In no event shall the Irish Stock Exchange, its affiliates or any Irish Stock Exchange data provider have any liability of any kind in connection with the ISEQ data. No further distribution or dissemination of the ISEQ data is permitted without the Irish Stock Exchange’s prior express written consent. Kleinwort Benson Investors International Ltd. is a registered investment adviser with the SEC and regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Kleinwort Benson Investors International Ltd is majority owned by Kleinwort Benson Investors Dublin Ltd. Form ADV Part I and Part 2 are available on request. It should not be assumed that the future performance of any company identified in this document will equal its prior performance or that any future recommendation regarding the securities of any such company will be profitable. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The value of investments can fall as well as rise. These stocks do not necessarily reflect current recommendations and are not selected based on profitability. All MSCI data is provided “as is”. In no event shall MSCI, its affiliates, or any MSCI data provider have any liability of any kind in connection with the MSCI data. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI’s prior express written consent.