The New Great Game: Water, Gas, and Oil in the

South Caucasus2010 NGWA Ground Water Summit Denver, CO 13 April 2010

Michael E. CampanaProfessor of Geosciences

Oregon State University , USAand

Universities Partnership for Transboundary Watershttp://waterpartners.geo.orst.edu and

ICIWaRM – Intl. Center for Integrated Water Resources Mgmt.UNESCO Category II Water Centre

http://iciwarm.org

•The ‘Great Game’: Old and New•Central Asia and the South Caucasus•Kura-Araks: Transboundary River Basin•Sources of Conflict•Kura-Araks: So What, Who Cares?•South Caucasus River Monitoring Project•Water Resource Problems; Water Quality•Recommendations•Concluding Remarks•The Region’s Future?

Talk OrganizationTalk Organization

“So, how does it feel to be a pawn in the new Great Game, my friend?”--Russian water resources engineer

Conference in Conference in AlmatyAlmaty, , Kazakhstan, June 2006Kazakhstan, June 2006

•OldStrategic rivalry and competition between Russiaand the British Empire for primacy in Central Asia during the 19th century.

•New! Improved!Competition between the Russian-Chinese axis (SCO, et al.) and the West (USA, EU, NATO) for favor with and influence over Central Asian and South Caucasus countries, especially with respect to energy resources.

The Great Game: The Great Game: ‘‘OldOld’’vs.vs.

‘‘New and ImprovedNew and Improved’’

•Energy and its control/access are at the center of the ‘game’•Central Asian and South Caucasian countries are not ‘passive observers’ – have ‘clout’ via energy (e.g., Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan) other factors (anti-terrorism)•More players•Individual members of each competing group do not always have aligned interests; shifting coalitions

Some Differences Between Some Differences Between ‘‘OldOld’’ and and ‘‘NewNew’’ Great GamesGreat Games

Central Asia and the South Caucasus

The South Caucasus: A Nice The South Caucasus: A Nice Place to Visit, ButPlace to Visit, But……

““Handguns are acceptable; semiHandguns are acceptable; semi--automatic weapons must be checked at automatic weapons must be checked at

reception.reception.””---- sign on the door of the sign on the door of the MetechiMetechi Palace Palace

Hotel, Tbilisi, GeorgiaHotel, Tbilisi, Georgia

““He who shoots first, laughs last.He who shoots first, laughs last.””---- AleksandrAleksandr LebedLebed (Yeltsin advisor)(Yeltsin advisor)

Georgian Military HighwayGeorgian Military Highway

Black SeaCaspian SeaCaucasus Mountains

LakeUrmia

Araks River

Kura River

Van Golu

SevanaLich

MingacevirSu AnbariCildir Golu

Batman Baraji

Silvan Baraji

Russia

Iran

Turkey

Azerbaijan

Georgia

Armenia

Iraq

BakuYerevan

Tbilisi

0 50 100Miles

N

Kura-Araks River Basin

•16 million people in SC countries•Total basin area: 188 200 km2

•Basin area in SC countries: 122 200 km2

•Kura: 1 360 km Araks: 1 070 km•Average Q - Kura: 575 cms Araks: 210 cms•Both streams rise in Turkey, join in

Azerbaijan, flow to Caspian Sea•No formal agreements among riparians

regarding water allocation, quality,ecosystem maintenance

Kura-Araks Basin: Some Facts

WastewaterReceives storm water discharge and industrial and domestic sewage •100% of Armenia’s•60% of Georgia’s•50% of Azerbaijan’s (Az often blamed for

Caspian Sea pollution–all 3 responsible)

Water Supply and Wastewater - Kura-Araks

Water Supply•None of Armenia’s and Georgia’s drinking water, but provides most water for agricultural production and industry

•Provides over 50% of Azerbaijan’s drinking water and 60% of its water for agricultural production

• ‘Autonomous’ (‘breakaway’)republics – South Ossetia,Abkhazia (Georgia)

•Nagorno-Karabakh [Ar-Az]•Javakheti (Georgia-Armenia)•Water resources – quality/quantity•Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC; oil – 1M

bbl/d) and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE;gas; 8.8 – 20 BCM/y) pipelines(terrorist targets; bypass Russia)

Sources of ConflictSources of Conflict

•Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the Kura-Araks is now a transboundary,transnational river basin with respect to the three South Caucasus republics.

•Water-related problems in the Kura-AraksBasin have since been exacerbated.

• It is in the region’s and (presumably) the world’s best interests to solve these problems. Why?

The The KuraKura--AraksAraks: : So What, Who Cares?So What, Who Cares?

Why Should We Care? HOG: Harmony, Oil, & Gas

(1 November 2002 – 31 December 2008)Partner Country Project Director (PPD)

Prof. Nodar Kekelidze, GeorgiaPartner Country Co-Directors

Dr. Armen Saghatelyan, ArmeniaDr. Bahruz Suleymanov, Azerbaijan

NATO Project Director (NPD)Prof. Michael E. Campana, USA

NATO Project Co-DirectorsProf. Freddy Adams, BelgiumProf. Eiliv Steinnes, Norway

South Caucasus River South Caucasus River Monitoring ProjectMonitoring Project

NATO Science for Peace NATO Science for Peace ProgrammeProgramme

•Build trust and establish the social andtechnical infrastructure for a transboundary,cooperative, and transparent water resources management agreement amongthe Republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan, andGeorgia

•Train young scientists•Build capacity in surface water quality

and quantity monitoring•Promote transparency (especially data)

http://www.kura-araks-natosfp.org

Project Overall ObjectivesProject Overall Objectives

Have technical cooperation“diffuse upward” to the highest

levels of government in each republic, leading to

transparency, peace andstability (and uninterrupted

flows of gas and oil)

Project GoalProject Goal

•Water quantity•Water quality•Land/ecosystem degradation•Effects of climate change•Poor management and regulation•Infrastructure decrepit or lacking•Corruption

Water Resource ProblemsWater Resource Problems

• Sediments from erosion due todeforestation and poor land-use practices

• Heavy metals from mining and industry• Discharge of untreated sewage and

industrial waste• Nitrogen, phosphorus from agriculture• Pathogenic organisms• Radionuclides• POPs – Persistent Organic Pollutants

(pesticides, etc.)

Water Quality Water Quality Types of PollutionTypes of Pollution

Metal Concentration WHO CountryMetal Concentration WHO CountryMercuryMercury 26 26 6 6 ArArNickelNickel 45 45 70 70 ArArCadmiumCadmium 302 302 3 3 GeGeCopperCopper 8 2,000 8 2,000 GeGeLeadLead 85 85 10 10 GeGeZincZinc 425 3,000 425 3,000 GeGe

Metals: Maximum Metals: Maximum Concentrations Concentrations (µg/L)

•Establish committee to coordinate various projects •Form basin commission to provide water resources

coordination•Develop “shared vision” model•Update country water codes, allowing for changes

in light of new information/changing conditions•Manage water quantity, water quality, land use,

and ecosystem health simultaneously•Stakeholder involvement – watershed councils•Continue to address non-water problems thatcould lead to conflict (biggest: Nagorno-Karabakh)

RecommendationsRecommendations

•Understand the geopolitical context•Like it or not, you are often viewed through the lens of “nationalism”•If you are on a project funded by a national government, a regional security organization, an NGO, PVO, etc. you are often seen as a representative of that organization and its philosophy.•Be cognizant of the “Ugly American” syndrome•Enjoy the New Great Game!

Concluding RemarksConcluding Remarks

The RegionThe Region’’s Future?s Future?

““The optimist learns The optimist learns EnglishEnglish. . The pessimist learns The pessimist learns ChineseChinese. .

The realist learns The realist learns KalashnikovKalashnikov..””

---- Dr. Armen SaghatelyanDr. Armen Saghatelyan

Thank You!(Kura River, Tbilisi)(Kura River, Tbilisi)

Van Harten, M. 2002. Europe’s troubled waters. A role for the OSCE: the case of the Kura-Araks. Helsinki Monitor, 13(4): 338-349.

Ewing, Amy, 2003. Water Quality and Public Health Monitoring of Surface Waters in the Kura-Araks River Basin of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Publication No. WRP-8, Water Resources Program, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NMDownload at: http://water.oregonstate.edu/projects/Ewing_2003.pdf

Vener, Berrin Basak, 2006. The The KuraKura--AraksAraks Basin: Common Objectives and Basin: Common Objectives and Obstacles for an Integrated Water Resources Management Model amoObstacles for an Integrated Water Resources Management Model among Armenia, ng Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.Azerbaijan, and Georgia. MasterMaster’’s Professional Project, Water Resources Program, s Professional Project, Water Resources Program, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM. University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM. Download at:http://water.oregonstate.edu/projects/Vener_2006.pdf

VenerVener, , BerrinBerrin BasakBasak and Michael E. Campana, 2010and Michael E. Campana, 2010.. Conflict and cooperation in Conflict and cooperation in the South Caucasus: the the South Caucasus: the KuraKura--AraksAraks Basin of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Basin of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. In In M. M. ArselArsel and M. Spoor (eds.), and M. Spoor (eds.), Water, Environmental Security and Sustainable Water, Environmental Security and Sustainable Rural Development: Conflict and Cooperation in Central EurasiaRural Development: Conflict and Cooperation in Central Eurasia. Oxford, UK: . Oxford, UK: RoutledgeRoutledge, pp. 144, pp. 144--174. 174. Download at: http://bit.ly/a6kDZYhttp://bit.ly/a6kDZY

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