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THE NEW FACE OF THE MEXICAN VOTER

The 2012 Presidential Election

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What Went Wrong with the Polls?

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Poll of Polls and campaign dynamicsSource: Diego Valles’ Blog

The Polls

• ALL POLLS SHOW THE SAME TREND: EPN IN FIRST PLACE, AMLO IN SECOND AND JVM IN THIRD

• THEY SHOW HOW AMLO REACHED JVM IN MAY AND SURPASSED HER

• TWO WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTION PRACTICALLY ALL POLLS HAVE AT LEAST A DOUBLE-DIGIT LEAD FOR EPN. NO EVIDENCE OF A CONSPIRACY.

• IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THAT ALL POLLS WERE WRONG. SO, WHAT HAPPENED?

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A New Law

• NEW LAW: FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1988, ALL POLITICAL PARTIES HAD TO APPEAR SEPARATELY IN THE BALLOT, EVEN IF SOME OF THEM NOMINATED THE SAME CANDIDATE. THERE WERE FOUR CANDIDATES AND SEVEN PARTISAN CHOICES. MOREOVER, PEOPLE COULD CHOOSE ALL THE PARTIES THAT NOMINATED THE SAME CANDIDATE AND THEIR VOTE WOULD COUNT.

• IN THE PAST, PARTIES NOMINATING THE SAME CANDIDATE APPEARED UNDER A SINGLE COALITION NAME. IN 2006 THE BALLOT HAD ONLY 5 CHOICES (CALDERÓN, MADRAZO, LÓPEZ OBRADOR, PATRICIA MERCADO AND ROBERTO CAMPA) EVEN IF THE NUMBER OF PARTIES WAS EIGHT. IT WAS A BALLOT THAT BASICALLY MEASURED CANDIDATE STRENGTH.

• THE NEW LAW CREATED UNFORESEEN AND UNPREDICTED MEASUREMENT ISSUES. BASICALLY A NIGHTMARE IF YOU ARE ORTHODOX AND TRY TO MEASURE THE ELECTORAL CHOICE USING A SIMULATED PAPER BALLOT.

• I DON´T THINK ANY PREELECTORAL POLL WAS ABLE TO MEASURE ACCURATELY THE ACTUAL RESULTS.

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PAN

PRI

PRD

PVEM

PT

MC

PANAL

PRI PVEM

PRD PT MC

PRD PT MC

PRD MC

PT MC

26.1%

29.7%

19.9%

2.0%

2.5%

2.1%

2.3%

7.5%

6.1%

1.3%

0.4%

0.2%

Official Results by party*Source: IFE

*Excluding votes for Non-registered candidates and null votes

Votes for Coalitions

15.5%

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Josefina Eugenia Vázquez Mota

Enrique Peña Nieto

Andrés Manuel López Obrador

Gabriel Quadri de la Torre

26.06%

39.19%

32.40%

2.35%

Official Results and Exit Poll by candidateSource: IFE and Buendía & Laredo

Official Results* Exit Poll**

Josefina Eugenia Vázquez Mota

Enrique Peña Nieto

Andrés Manuel López Obrador

Gabriel Quadri de la Torre

25.14%

40.23%

31.61%

3.02%

*Excluding votes for Non-registered candidates and invalid votes **Excluding Non-response

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PAN

PRI

PRD

PVEM

PT

MC

PANAL

PRI PVEM

PRD PT MC

PRD PT MC

PRD MC

PT MC

25.1%

34.1%

23.0%

2.5%

2.9%

1.6%

3.0%

3.6%

2.6%

1.1%

0.3%

0.2%

Exit Poll by party*Source: Buendía & Laredo

*Excluding Non-response

Votes for Coalitions

7.8%

AND EXIT POLLS WERE ACCURATE BECAUSE THE RECENCY OF THE VOTE ALLOWED IT TO CAPTURE CANDIDATE STRENGTH BUT SOME PARTIES WERE OVERESTIMATED.

The Polls

• WHY SOME PREELECTORAL POLLS DID BETTER THAN OTHERS? THOSE WHO DID NOT USE A SIMULATED BALLOT AND RATHER PRESENTED VOTERS WITH A FOUR-CANDIDATE CHOICE PROBABLY MEASURED BETTER EACH CANDIDATE´ S STRENGTH.

• THOSE WHO USED A SIMULATED BALLOT PROBABLY EVOKED A MORE PARTISAN ANSWER, PARTICULARLY WHEN THERE WAS A GOOD DEAL NUMBER OF VOTERS (19-25%) WHO WERE DOUBTFUL ABOUT WHICH CANDIDATE TO SUPPORT. WHEN ELECTION DAY WAS NOT CLOSE THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN A SIMULATED BALLOT AND A CANDIDATE-CHOICE ITEM WAS PROBABLY NOT VERY LARGE. THINGS GOT DIFFERENT DURING THE LAST DAYS OF THE CAMPAIGN AND OBVIOUSLY ON ELECTION DAY.

• THE ORTHODOXY OF USING A SIMULATED PAPER BALLOT DID NOT PAY OFF. WE HAVE TO ABANDON THIS PRACTICE, ESPECIALLY IN A CANDIDATE-CENTERED AGE AND WHEN DEALING WITH ELECTIONS TO AN EXECUTIVE POSITION. IN MID-TERM ELECTIONS WILL BE MORE PLAUSIBLE TO USE THE SIMULATED PAPER BALLOT.

• IN THE U.S. POLLS DO NOT TRY TO REPLICATE THE ACTUAL BALLOT AND POLLS SEEM TO WORK FINE.

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THE NEW FACE OF MEXICAN VOTERS, 2012

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Age and sexExit Poll vs registered voters figures

Male Female Age 18-29 Age 30 - 44 Age 45 - 59 Age 60 or more

48.2

51.8

30.0

34.0

21.5

14.6

48.2

51.8

28.2620838954974

32.9664729615534

23.4214112695634

15.3500318733858

Registered voters Exit Poll

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Total

Male

Female

Age 18-29

Age 30 - 44

Age 45 - 59

26

24

28

25

27

25

39

39

39

36

40

41

32

35

30

35

31

32

AMLO EPN JVM

Vote choice by sociodemographicsExit Poll Estimates

Age 60 or more

Elementary school

Junior High

High School

College/Graduate

26

25

26

25

30

42

46

43

35

28

31

28

29

36

39

AMLO EPN JVM

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Approve (53%) Neither approve nor disapprove (17%) Disapprove (18%)0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

41

21

10

32

43

42

25

33

47

JVM EPN AMLO

Presidential ApprovalDo you approve or disapprove of the job Felipe Calderón is doing as President of Mexico?

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Right direction (28%) Mixed (36%) Wrong track (33%)0

10

20

30

40

50

60

48

28

12

30

39

40

20

30

46

JVM EPN AMLO

Direction of countryAll in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?

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Economic growth (29%) To combat insecurity (37%) Both (30%)0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2829

27

3638

36

34 30 34

JVM EPN AMLO

Economic Growth or Crime Issues?Between promoting economic growth or reducing insecurity, which one do you think it should be the top priority?

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Votó por el candidato que más se acerca…

Votó para evitar que otro candidato ganara

Josefina Vázquez Mota 25.9 26.2

Enrique Peña Nieto 40.2 37.1

Andrés Manuel López Obrador 31.9 32.3

Gabriel Ricardo Quadri 2.0 4.4

Total 100 100

Strategic voteWould you say that you voted for the candidate closest to your own positions or would you say you voted for a candidate to avoid the victory of some other candidate?

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Facebook Twitter E-mail YouTube

Josefina Vázquez Mota 27.4 26.9 27.8 26.8

Enrique Peña Nieto 32.4 32 31.3 30.1

Andrés Manuel López Obrador 36.8 38 37.8 39.6

Gabriel Quadri de la Torre 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.5

Total 100 100 100 100

Vote choice by Social Network

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PAN Compromiso por México (PRI-PVEM)

Movimiento Progresista (PRD-PT-

MC) Nueva Alianza Total

Josefina Vázquez Mota 22.6 1.8 1.4 0.4 26.2

Enrique Peña Nieto 1.6 35.5 1.6 0.4 39.2

Andrés Manuel López Obrador 2.0 2.1 27.7 0.5 32.3

Gabriel Ricardo Quadri de la Torre 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.5 2.3

Total 26.4 39.7 30.9 2.9 100.0

Split-Ticket votingExit Poll Estimates

Straight: 87.4%Split-ticket: 12.6%