The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova

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The New Eastern Europe:Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova

Editors

Daniel HamiltonandGerhard Mangott


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Hm, D Mg, G (.), The New Eastern Europe:Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova (Wg, DC: C TcR, )

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Center for Transatlantic RelationsAmerican Consortium on EU Studies

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Austrian Marshall Plan FoundationUgg

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Table of Contents

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott

The Lands In Between: The New Eastern Europein the Twenty-First Century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Angela E. Stent

Shifting Ground

Prospects for the Political and EconomicDevelopment of Ukraine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Taras Kuzio

Neighborhood in Flux: EU-Belarus-RussiaProspects for the European Unions Belarus Policy. . . . . . . . Rainer Lindner

Moldovas Uncertain Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . International Crisis Group

Economic and Energy Perspectives

Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova:Economic Developments and Integration Prospects . . . . . . Vasily Astrov and Peter Havlik

Ukraine and Belarus: Their Energy Dependenceon Russia and their Roles as Transit Countries . . . . . . . . . . Roland Gtz

Ukraine and Its Neighbors

Ukraines Role in Changing Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Elena Kovalova

Russia and Ukraine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dmitri Trenin


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Ukraine and the European Union. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Michael Emerson

Ukraine and NATO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F. Stephen Larrabee

The New Eastern Europe?

Deconstructing a Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Gerhard Mangott

About the Contributors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

iv The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova


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Preface

Daniel Hamilton and Gerhard Mangott

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The Lands In Between:

The New Eastern Europe in theTwenty-First Century

Angela E. Stent

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2 The New Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova


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mm gb R EU U S. H mg y mc jc- c R W? T x m cy c ? Wy b b c , c T Cm, y gy? WB R mg? W mc c ?

The Past as Prologue: Identities, Regions and Nations

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Sy, . . A L, Ukraine and Russia: A Fraternal Rivalry (Wg, DC: U S

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C Kg, The Moldovans: Romania, Russia and the Politics o Culture (S U-y: H I P, ) c..


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Prelude to the Present: Independence and Beyond

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Shifting Ground


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Prospects for the Political and

Economic Development of Ukraine

Taras Kuzio

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P Kbc, Unbroken Ties. The State, Interest Associations and Corporations in Post-SovietUkraine (A Ab: Uy Mcg, ).


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Elite Pacting

Pc g m g

cy y c ym. A M Sy , mcc b-g m y m m- ym.W m m c-y, gcy, ycgcy cy. Dg m c cg, g ybg cmmy, cy b ym. Fm g cy by gg

gy mgg ym. E U Dcmb L Kc, m gccy Cmm Py U my , U . Kc , y cc c g c . F g U -, Kc cy c c b mm . U -S b

cy c, g gm by -g mgz . U c cm, cm ( g c) m ( g m m m b).

I , Cmm Py (g[] Cmm)

Prospects or the Political and Economic Development o Ukraine

E M Jc Sy, Dmccy W,Foreign Aairs, . , . (My-J ), . .

Am Pz, Sm Pbm Sy T Dmccy, Gm OD, P C. Scm Lc W ., Transitions

rom Authoritarian Rule. Prospects or Democracy (Bm: J H Uy P,), . .

Ay D. Sm, T N: I, Img, Rc?Millennium. Journalo International Studies, . , . (W ), . .

O ancien regime g gxcg , D P, Exg Dmcz, D P,

D Gb, Mg K P L, ., Democratisation (M Ky,T O Uy, ), .-. Mc cb m bm, . H c cm m-, xc cm cm. S G L. Mc,Dmcc T Cm Pc, Comparative Politics, . , . (A ), . -.


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mcc cm g - m USSR U, c mgzg c m

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m -, bg c c g Og R. T cg Mc, cc gm gg m Kcm c m, SDPU m ( cc c ).

Yyc by by Kcm m cc mmy, c Yyc.

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Kyiv Post, J , .


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c . T O U, g gm - c, cmm cg Tym bc g. Ic c cmm c m b mm mmy c Kcm.

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S T. Kz, Gg Dy Pc,Kyiv Post, Ocb , Yc:Ccg O, Transitions On Line, Ag , .

I Tym Ukrayinska Pravda, Ocb .


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S Pg c m gm.A c , cg by c m mc

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Jy Ag , g m mbz byOg c g m mbzby B cm Og by A-Cc gm. O b cc c


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D L. Hz, Dmccy D Sc,Journal o Democracy, . , . (Ocb ), ..

Q m A A, U W F: W I Og R-, The Weekly Standard, Dcmb , . S T.Kz, Eyy U Og R, A A Mc McF .,Revolution in Orange(Wg DC; Cg Em, ), .- C Scy, Y Sc Mbz Dmcc R, Communist and Post-Communist Studies,

., . (Smb ), .-.


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mcm j -b g-, y b g . T Tym bc g Dcmb , cmmcg, c O U bc, g Ag U N Uy, P Yc - O U.

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T c c c g cmm c c g g z ccy m c by xg g c


Sm Hg, The Third Wave. Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (N-m L: Uy Om P, ), . -. M yc y y .

Mc McF, T F W Dmcz Dc. Nc- T Pcmm , World Politics, . , . (Jy ),. -.


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c m . T m gmb mmy Kcm

c m c m .Fm Pc S P c Dcmb, g m Og m-, y m g cmm cg c m cg c . Ag -m m Pc c, P- Yc y c m Ocb , m g mmm Yyc c c g-m g mmy c g c-

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g b m mgOg , O U cmg Tym bc c c c. T y Yc cy c.

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Sy K, Ry Bg: T Umg U Accy TgPcg, J Cmm S T Pc, . , . (Mc

), . -.T.Kz, Oy U.S. cc,Kyiv Post, Smb , .J J. Lz A S, Problems o Democratic Transition and Consolidation. SouthernEurope, South America and Post Communist Europe (Bm: J H Uy,).


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L E Amj, Tm J. B Abm F. L, T Pbm Sm T,Journal o Democracy, . , . (Ocb ), . .

S Sm, U N-Bg Kcm, Problems o Post-Commu-nism, . , . (Smb-Ocb ), . -.

T. Kz, T P-Cmm S: T Q? Politics, . ,. (Smb ), . -; T N Fc U Q

T, Contemporary Politics, . , . (J ), . -.


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P DA, Ec T S Sg: Ug S U S,Journal o Communist Studies and Transition Politics, . , . (Mc), . -. S L Bg, Exmg mgcc c : g, c gc U,European Journal o Political Research, . , . (J ), . -; L. Bg, L Ec H, O U My?: Rgm U I Pc Cqc,Nationalities Papers, . , . (Mc ), . -.

S R Ab, Mm N S: I Hy NIy P-S E,Nationalities Papers, . , . (Smb ), .-; S D. R F Fc, Hc Lgc T Imc P-Cmm Vg B,Europe-Asia Studies, . , . (Jy ), .-.

S. Sm, N Iy Pbc S Pc Ecmc Rm U, Slavic Review, . , . (Sg ), . -.


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b y c cy, g by Rybc Kz, mcy b by Og R.

Ukraine in Comparative Perspective

The CIS and Central-Eastern Europe

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My Rybc, C Scy N Iy U, T. Kz ., Con-temporary Ukraine: Dynamics o Post-Soviet Transormation (Am, N.Y.: M.E. S,), . -; T. Kz, N Iy Dmcc T P-

S U B: A Tc Cm Pc,East EuropeanPerspectives, . , . (Jy Ag , ).

V Bc, T Pc Ecmy Pcm, Slavic Review, . , . (W ).

Bc, . .


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Bc, . . S Ly Lc A. Wy, T R Cm Am,Journal

o Democracy, . , . (A ), . -. Hg, . -. L. A. Wy, Kcm F Am,Journal o Democracy, . , . (A

), . - T. Kz, U R: U R YCm, SAIS Review, . XXVI, . (Smm-F ), . -. Ax J.My m c y R, cm g m b m, U. S ScC Sg P: T Lgc Symc Cg U R,Comparative Politics, . , . (Jy ), . -.


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W Fm S U, -, World Politics, . , . (J-y ), . -.


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T Sc, States and Social Revolutions(Cmbg: Cmbg Uy P,), . .


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Aairs, . , . (A-J ), . -, L.W. Bg E S. H,

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46/288

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c.T ancien regimes Yc cy (

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O O U T. Kz, Gg Dy Pc,Kyiv Post, Ocb , .


47/288

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y c . T cy gm cy g c g . Fg Kcmg c m Yc gm Nmb A , c b y c U . Fg c, xc m c my mjy m c b jc gy mjy m m, b -. I A m c

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49/288

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50/288

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Rg Tym bc. O U m c c c by g cm


S T. Kz, Ic Om D NATO U, UkrainianObserver, Ocb .


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52/288

c mmb, c m U m m gg c- E. U c b g

mg Rm m , b Rm y g U; my, c EUmmb cg y by .T EU c mmb c cg -EU b g Py Rg, g-m, c m c, j EU ccycg I Ic Py Sc Dmccy Rm-.

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b y c U cgy m -my bc. I Jy , Cb M c A-C c m U c my ym. T c y bg -. I Fby , Cmm c c- mm m U g M c cg c

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S Ly L. A. Wy, I Lg Dmcz,Journal oDemocracy, ., . ( Jy ), . - L. W, I Ac Dmcz, Gm OD, P C. Scm Lc W- ., Transitions rom Authoritarian Rule. Prospects or Democracy (Bm: J H- Uy P, ), . -.


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mcc jcy, b m, cy Ujg m gg c- E, c Rm-, cc R mjy CIS.M mcz c y b -c mmb WTO NATO, gz mmb c - m, b b c m EU c cy.

Looking Ahead to 2009 2011

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Rg b c cy,g c c g b

U. T b c U y m, m x c cyc.

T y q c U. T Py Rg m -gc, mcc y. Tm Py Rg U mc-z b y y Py Rg cm cg j c- . I m A-C c m c

Py Rg c b c, gccy mb mcc cg. A cc -m Py Rg y c -m b, y c Py Rg g m g y c gm.

T c mcc g Og R- b g Yyc gm. T Py Rg, cg g -

my c gm, b b U Kcm c m. Ugm mc y cc gm, by mg U R. A c cy c m Py Rg mz y Og R.

I U y m my bc, Ocb c b g by c-: Yyc, Tym cmb Yc. C c c bg g by Tym Yyc, U m c. I -y, U my c c bOg B c Yyc g cg c-cy m g m m. Yyc Tym b c by m

b - -c U cy. Imy y, Tym m c g cmb bg , c cg m bc, bg m c -



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c. O c y Yc c m.

U m Tym c-m g m. A m m, Tym bc b c c c U c.T Py Rg b b c U.

B y bc mg , Yc y c m. Yc -mc y m

c gg c c , c-c, c Yyc c.Yc c cc mg by -, m c gy. Yc ygy cmm c , g , Yyc Tym.

Conclusion

Pc m m cy x c cyc g c gm m Og R y b y b c b m . U c gm cg m cc ym. W m gm c g mz ,U cy mg c b y c g g c c-m. U b, c b, b cm-m.

M g c-y mm. T, , U

m R CIS ; , m my c bg cm U c-E, CIS. U cc jcy m gy E bc



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g c c Og, -mc. U c g cfc c c-

c b z-m gm, g m my , b cg c mcc b. T m mcc mc Ucmy, c g y cc. Dg U - c c, cmy g m c c yz. Sm mm z b m m cg m -c U, -cmm

c- E. U y bm m by Og R c.



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Neighborhood in Flux:

EU-Belarus-RussiaProspects for theEuropean Unions Belarus Policy

Rainer Lindner

The Lukashenko System:The Agony of a Post-Soviet Regime

B c m m y b, m -bg y m Cby c c y

. T y -S B -m Ax L ccy mg y m B , cg y m c, cy cy, B b cgg mcy.

T gm E U NATO, m-gc y g E, R VmP y bc g gy xcy -g cg bg g -S c, fc mc B. T cyc c , by cc c Ecc U Gg g c cg B c ym. T gm b jyb g mcc , b L m g: W y y c mcc

cg c c b W. A c . T by mccy. T B g cy, xcm A , ,


58/288

g mg B N Amby.

O c, , c c c c g c - c Mc . T m B c-y y ymbcy Ocb Sq (Pc) M Mc A . I bcm ymb c mcc cy -S y Fby , , , g nomenklatura. D

c c c, mm cm Og R U. B , m- c U, () Kc Ky, c cy g cm x-c m Y Tym by Kcm gm y. O c ,NGO y c B. A U, mm mm z cm B mg m

c .T c g -y -

m c E g, B gm b. I c gg cg bymc mcc c . R gbg cy g m by my -Sc . T my cm qg Og R. N, g c g

R y c g cg R. L mcy c ym c gy : cg m c c m cmmc. T cmy b c gy c. T y g.F f m, c, c c cggm by. T c c B , cb cg E B

cy.


Colour Revolutions Banditry under veneer o democracy,y Ax L, :B Tg Agcy, A , [://m.by-ym.cm/m/y/W--M-/.m].


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W gm yg x , B g. W g

gm c m m (gm cy, my, c c), y c-g . T z by ; c ym c. Fg c mb , gm c c b c m; gm mm m jc g, y m bjc -c by . T xm c gm ccg yy .

B q xm -S gm - y c b. I c y y-m mcc cm. T g by S Scy ScyCc B V Sm; C P Am- Gy Nyg; M Ec R; M Im Rc; M Jc G, G P-

c Mc, KGB c S Sc. Ty -y b g m c g. Ty b-z gm, b bz B . I ymmc L y mbz, g m mb y c c C Vz. L m b y c gm f my B. T mg c .

S- g j mb b m B . I m c - gbg c, cg gg mc -, g - TV (BT- ) g g gc c g y c B gm. T m gg m by c B KGB qy . T B, gm m cg -

by. B c c . N -g c c c -m g my c . B jc ym, c y y U g

Neighborhood in Flux: Prospects or the European Unions Belarus Policy


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Og R. Ly m by c c. T c-

y bcm m c m Pc Gbcm G Pc S Scy ScyCc B.

B, g C A gm c Tm, -S gm, cg m- c B gy m cg cy m c . Iy - , xm, c

bc bx c g , , cg.S-y gz g c, bcmccm g .

T L gm c -c c, NGO, c,c, j, b c my c gg cy gm . O Nmb , , c, gm c O m

c c b my c, cc gm bg c cym g c m bg c m c. O c gm m my , bmy c . U c, my - mcc - c b cg bg m. T -

c c L gm B cz g bgg c -S gm.

E b R-B gy c b - c c gy c b q L m Bm. I c y R bz B g c.M b $. b y g c gy -

-x c . T m m


O m c c b my c-: ://..g.by//.m#c.


61/288

R bg. N, , B g cmc c.

F, R g c c B bg. B c c c gy c, c c cy g gy- by.

Sc, B cg cb c g m g -x EU c. T bg c $ b g c - m cmc c. A Bcm, - b g, , jb cy g Dzb .

T, b xcb by Rcm Fby , m b $b m B g. T y-m g R-B cm cm . Sg, m y c, , -

b m cg B m xc-y R m c cgy y- x m. F xm, c bgg B g c g b R bcB y y. E g m B x g c C I S, b EU, B c by c R Sc Ecmc M

Dcmb , , c m cg cm gm cmc c b m gz.

I cm c cm g, gmby b .

T c R bgc cy B . U R gg g c , c g cy g.T mc m M bcm , x c-mc g gm c bcm c-gy cb. L ym b b cmcy cy. I jb - b y gy c c g



62/288

g R m c cm, bg z, B qcy

L g x b gm g g R W, . I gg c m B cmc ym . Ub gy-- cy g, b cg m mm-z b b b m fxby, mc g . A c cmc cg.

E cmm Jy , , cB y R x $ c,L c g c R c ,cy g m c q cy b c. I M cy ccy m m c cm R my b B (c R my c-y ) y m

gm j my c c cmy y U S R B. S cm R g gg -L .

Mc g c B g - g ccb -R- c W b b cc. Fm,B cm mg R y c

Km g m y b y gy B. L y c gg c cg cy c gy c gm.M b m ccy c c c. T gm c mg c .

Democratic Forces: Readjustment and Old Problems

F m c g c gm b bg mjy B . I



63/288

m Cg Dmcc Fc mb g c Ax Mc c-

c Mc . T m B mcc b - cg P L. Fg c-, c Ax Kz, m c B S Uy (BGU) M nomenklatura cc g AxMc. O , c Nj Sc, b c m m g c cmg. Sc, g Ay Lb,

c cmg NCmm N Dmcc Fc, Cby y A , , c c .

T y gg g mb B c bcy c g c m mcc m c . F m, c cm-g mcc c cc. Mc

g cc c b c-. E c KGB mgc -m cc bm, c . T -m c B b Mc Kz m xcy g m b c-g gm by. F m c yq gy .

Ax Kz c ccm L mm, g -L y Mc c. Kz c y g cy mm. H m m xm gg mgm gm bz, bcm g gm. Ty c x-Cm N B SBgc, x-M Lb Ax S, x-Dy

Cm C C V F, x-Jg C C M P, mmb NAcmy Scc Ax Vjc, m Amb L M Mc.



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T c gm m y c y c, , b c

Nasha Niva NGO c B H Cmm,c . Sc b g gm m m gy g x ym x-xm EU g.I Dcmb b m M Ecmc C Cmm m z c qm.

T gm gg , y m g bgg gy .

L ymbc c m cm, Ox -m, b R, by, bb b, bc y b gmby g c g. T yb gy, b y bgg R--B U by gb. I, mcc , m C-g Dmcc Fc, y cm -

A Mc g .W Mc L Fby , mcc c cm jc ggg gm g y m c cm-mc. Mc g g cc B. T c bm c c c .

From Virtual to Mortal:The End of the Russian-Belarusian Union State

R cy M fx. W P cm , b R c m B Y. T b L, c cmc c Y R g L c c byB. A c, P cg R -

-S g cg R . My


Open Letter o Aleksandr Milinkevich to Aleksandr Lukashenko, Fby , , : ://.mccc.cm/c/Ac.?cID=.


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b mmb y R m New Energy Doctrine gy -S

c. A m, Gzm c g B b m m c. Sm cm m gg M, L, U. T bgg R-B U .

T b Mc M ccz by c g R B , mmg c . Sgcy, c b

cmc. T bg , B m .c g m R, B x by .c, my m bg c by EU c.Amb c g ccy b cy ccb B cmc b mygc . U , B c gc m -x c R c ( c c by CIS, my E

U) xc m y, gg $ b y . B R g - bcmg cc B L Wirtschatswunder: P c mjb B cmy My , y R-B U. T cy gbg c m S U c-y c c m b R. A c U Gg, A mc Uzb, P y m c g. H c m- cg R g my c- R . P bz R c cmc g c B,Kz, U Cmm Ecmc Sc C A c. Tmj ccy cy gy.

R mb mb B. R gy c P b. Ay Sgy Kg g R



66/288

L. Kg g R -g M b ,

R b c y g g, cgg B L c yg, Mc. A m m, B bg R bc B , bbc R P c . F P -, B y, cy, gc c c m P g cg c: R-B c y c P Vm P.

Igy g, m c bcm L m, g by c: , c c B m m; c-, b b y y . FP, m c m c.P -R B, b cy L, bc g L y -

m P gmcy y W y.I R m g -

g L by y m. R -- gb, c b b gy c my, xcg gmc c b y . By g , R not W gzg B. B E U g R U S g-

c c c B b R c /.

T cmc Ty Fm U S R B g Dcmb , , b y by gy . A L jc cmm my c ym(c b m c c), R c-

m . T gy cfc Mc c m g by gc c b by m, cy gbg g .



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Russias New Energy Doctrine in Belarus

I g b R B c

. T c g c $, byR Gzm bgg , c , P L c.L P P c. Fm R c, -S c Yc,S L cg y c-y R . T y P m -g b m. A , U y $

m

Gg y $. T y bYc L cgy mg R -S c. I B c mc Vz, Cb, Sy, I, Ac, C.

W bgy Ax L , b ccz y c bcm m -S . Dg m gy, B m b y gy c -Og

U. Dg CIS mm Dcmb M, U, Azbj B c c gy c c c jgy jc b m B U B EU c.

D x -fg mg P , L ccz R Rm, ccg m g U S. TB c R b B b g B c. A bgg , B g cy gy - by My Fg A gc . L g cy c cc m Cbb b, Vz, Ac, P G, I, N K, My, Vm. W g Vz, m,

y b R.

T g gy b R B ymb -S S U. T c



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cmc b , Sc, bcm c g S . T c

gm , g by Y L, c gy. Fm Jy , , , ymb -g -m gb c x. B ybcmg . R g gy-b y. N y CIS g cy, b R-B U S g .

Accg y M-b I Pz Mgm (IPM) m Nmb , y c

B g B oblasti R F. Oy c R-B U S g ccy, , -m. T Mc ym y-b bg -S y cg B, U, Kz, , b R g c c gb. T mgc R gy b g S m.

B gg b g g Km ggy c. R g mc c c cmc m Gzm, c cgm m m m R cg m c m m normal. T mz b Mc M mm L, bc m-z y c by R

B. T L ym bg.

By g g c B, byg mj B g , mg x R B, cg y- m Bg R, R b . A , c R B cm b b. Rcmc cy gb c

g cy P cm c c-g cgy . T L ym, cmc c by b c m R, b g x c. F



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EU Gmy gy gy gc R c

c gy g B.T cfc R g B -

y Dcmb , . T m, Jy , Km g -c g c. Ag g cmm c $ cbc m -S g, g y b b - B- cmy. Accg B Pm M Sg Sy,

g c m c b q cyb. T c m R Gzm c . Gzm g y $. b B - BTG, b m y b $ m.

R gy g cy by mb c-mc c , cg c c g R; Gzm c mg g y cc

g gy ; bgg cmg / my c; c- m W T Ogz (cxc cy g gb).

O Dcmb , R gm y c c y $ c x B, R cm c cy

B cm. L g Jy , , R - T g Dzb (F) B EU g B b g gy q y M m (bc Jy , ). T cg g g c E$ m mg B bg. O y m yM cmm: y R

x . T B , c g cmc m R. O Jy B m y.



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Vm P m c x g g / my -

c. I cb mg Jy , , P b m m x c $. b bg. P m-g g: m g gbg, cy c c g- R m. F R c c c R bg. I U c P g mgg R W b gy .

L, c y gcfc c g , m R y m , b y cmc y m c B- g y.

T R my g bc

L. W P g mmc gg g m -g , m R m m m gy U S R B. T g mM Mc Jy , , g c. U cy g c mcm b b P c

B cg.

By g g c mg x g m m B, R g -. A c Mc g g m m m U S R B, Pmy Amby U B R, g cfc. I, My Ecmc Dm Fg


S R L: Friendship Blockaded: The Russia/Belarus Conict Is a Post-Soviet Turn-ing Point, SWP Cmm /C , Jy .

Ibid.


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T R F m. B bcm g cy. A m g c mggg,

B bgg c R cz cg b. Tmy m c b g- x, g U c m cy . T b gm g mz, ymbc mc c, , gg . Ag cm-m bg my cm, cmc c cfcc g y m.

Toward a Belarus Policy of the European Union

F g m EU g cy g- c B mg gm BE U gb. Tg cg gcy g, cy , c P L Mc ,, B EU, R, b gcy g.

T cy g m c q U- c B. T m gc c, D M , R. U m mcy m b j cy R W (E U / U S) c jc R EU. R W m c. R c m gb.U B bjc competition o inuencewithin the post-Soviet space.

T U.S. m c mccy B m B Dmccy Ac. A cb m, Cg cc mccy B E-Ac ym, P By g B Dmccy Ac. B bcm gy U.S. g cy E. B

b by U.S. Am yy c E. A $ m b


D M, Color Revolutions: The Belarus Case, Cmm P-Cmm S- (), . .


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B x y m ccy. T m Gmy b g c

g b . b B(cg Tm gm my c, y E Gmy y ). Gmy m NGO c x y m Sg Pgm B. M, b- ccm by gg m my c E U.

Fc , , c

gy. S , E U y B Dmccy Ac B mccc, , NGO y gz. T - mcc y gz c c cmg B y b y c B c. I b j - y Gg U c m S bc. Y j m, b

cmmc, m m , bcg jc, y m.

A mm mc-jc gm B bgc by E Cmm. B c y b bgg g y E m. EU cy B b c U.S. cy M, b c mcz B mg. T E U B cy c

x P Bc g E m- E U g cy. I g gy xc y c cg B m R cfc. R c , .

T E U c -, -cy. Sxy g y cy g g B cz. T EU gb cy c cg mcz c. Y EU c m


R L: Prsidentschatswahl in Belarus. Autoritres Regime, abhngige Staatswirtschat,internationale Isolation, SWP-S, B . [://.-b.g//cmm/g_cm.?_=].


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B E U, , m, c m g, c c-

c c y cm L gm . T B g c E U , m cmmc- z b c by EU, gmcy c gm B y y m B. T m Ax- Mc Sddeutsche Zeitung(Dcmb , ) g g E U j c gb.M, c U R y

g y b, b b cg myB EU c cm bc cy c q. I E Ub gm c B E Ug by cy g m g, mg c, bg c m q M.

F g m m by E Cmm

ymbc, -gc. T b B c A , c, b my ymbc. O , My , c- m c m zg c-mc c b c cc c cy mcc cx c Mc , . A g c Tm c Tmb ( y Dcmb ) c b DcB F, W cy y c b. M, c B, gc c B c c-


Ax Mc: Der Eiserne Vorhang des Westens. Ein Geschenk der EU anWeirusslands Diktator Lukaschenko: Die Visagebhren werden zum 1. Januar drastisch erhht,: Sc Zg, .., . .

M, m m mg .Ax Ky, S Cmm Hm R, gg c Gmy m g gm(Frderprogramm Belarus). Sm m m. S: ://.cm../Dc/cm_D/c/D//g/..

S: ://.cm../Dc/cm_D/c///mc/..


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y; L z xc B gc.

S , m m m EU B cy c EU c gmc, -g mg mxmzg fxby E I Dmc-cy Hm Rg, Dcz C, TACIS. TE U TACIS gm B ( m /) c my g .T TEMPUS gm b c c xcg yg B y b, ccm m

E , ccy-bg c . T c E Hm Uy c by gm . B gb Ng-b Pgm c-b c ( L, L-, U, P, Bc S Pgm) b m E Ngb Pcy I-m ( ).

T E I Dmccy Hm Rg

(EIDHR) c mc-jc , , m b g c . I/, B c b y cmg, by Fg c m g Pmg mcc c. B gb Dcz C bg g jc g-g NGO c b g, c c m, cmmy mbz.

I , cy c c m OSCE E Cmm c y jc. I Jy Cmm g . m E Hm Uy (EHU) V. T g cc g EHU ccg cz E . Ey, Amc c McA F, Hg F- O Scy F mg

E U gg c. I Fb-y, E U c b-cg gm B gz byDeutsche Welle B Media Consulta B. Ty m jc



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c , g B j TV bc. I Ocb Cm-

m c . m gm c B g y b. U jc,c b mm by Nc Cc M, c- b m b B m cmc y. O m jc European Radio orBelarusW c bcy by U.S. g-m .

Sc b g b z

by gm b cc B - bc c c g - c Mc , . B b b gbg c, c E Hm Uy (EHU) V U. T gm c c M Bc gm EHU; g x B cy EHU; c-

g c U gbg c. T EU gm c m, b g B V x m B - c.

Sc Nmb E U b g b g B. I Nmb , - W E U c

bg B, E Cmm y B j E Ngb Pcy (ENP) c.T b B gm cy. T mj bjc c S Ac P B, m Hg R E U Fg Scy Pcy m EU B


S D Lyc: Time or New Thinking on Belarus, Ocb , , : ://.-.g//y/y.

Sm T E Cmm Dg B M Fm IXB Ngb T E: Fg Pcy, Ecmy Scy,Nmb , , ://m-m.bg-.g/.


76/288

g B cy c m ENP (B) m qy

B .T - m , b ymbcy -

cy. I ymbc y c , g c -gc c, B b bc E- U g cy g. Ecy m c mcc , g mc EU c mcc c B , m m, gm m y cmc, c

m g . Sc E U cc B cy , N Cmm U Dmcc Fc g cc B g-m m g cmm c- . T gm , mg y g mcc .

T E U c cmc c b gm m cmy

m g c b g. T y E- Cmm Dcmb , c c g B GzSym Pc (GSP) cy m b g x m. Cy, c- bg m GSP y Bm b x.B b c c. Ecy m c- g cc bgg y

mm g B. Cy, m -c B x E U c GSP . Accg m, GSPb B x , cmc, x c M m m ($ m) E U. Sc E U bcmg m m B R, c B cmy.

T B gm c y m- m m c B. I Ocb, c y


S: ://..g.by/.m#c.


77/288

g c . ScB g m GSP, E

U m m c mm g b mm. T E U g, g EU g M. L y g g y cx GSP g c.

O c B gm m - W y. T Dcmb , -m Sgy Gyc Sc R M

Fg A c E my - b B-E . Gy-c, cm Lb-Dmcc Py B -cc cy cmg m xc E c B.Cg jb c g B- gm m cmmc EU, b Gy-c g . T m

Cmb R b b mb B Pm E .

O Nmb , B F-W, E Cm-m Ex R E Ngb Pcy,c cm g W EU c bg B, B gg mcz c m g . T cm m B ,b cy B . I c gy

B c g m cm b EU B m E NgbPcy.T m m c B- gm c g mcc cy (mcc , NGO, N Cmm UDmcc Fc, Cg Dmcc Fc); cc g; c m B g-m (gy, , , , x, gc, b c-

, c, m). I m c- cy. Cy, Tm Amb , c


L: Pc, . c. What can the European Union brig to Belarus? (N P, EU Cmm, Nmb ,

), ://c../cmm/x_/b//__..


78/288

cy fc c-b y gm, mg mccy. Ex gz-

( E U R ) c c-b cc L gm bg bmz mcz.

Fy, m cmm c g G-m EU/G-c by.

I gy , EU B mz, by () bg m EU c M; (b)g Egy T g y (EU, B, U,R); (c) gg m mm-z b, gy cc, c cy gz ( G-m gm B gm c c jc EU gm); () mg B g Egy C Ty.

Izg gy b EU c . T EU-R gy g

Gm-R gy g m b cc m -cy. B m c c. T cfc cc c Gm-R gy -g b c c P, U, B. Ay b Gm-R gc b gg gy Mc c b m g g.

A b B-R

m c b E U R gb cy B. F m B E cmmc c by m m c cy b c. Cc -g c b g m B- . I m mc c B; Strategy Team Belarus (STB)g by Hg R J S; EU m-

B M.


Tm Amb: The Political Success o the Russia-Belarus-Relationship. Insulating Minskrom a Color revolution, : ://.mm./m/ISAS//R-B_Tm_Amb..


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Moldovas Uncertain Future

International Crisis Group

Executive Summary And Recommendations

W Rm Jy y E U, EU b M, bycfc g by c g cm. M c j EU, b cmmm E c, by g T mggm y. Yg cc cy g mg .I M bcm b EU gb,

b mc g ggm, y cfc b g mc m m cy m c cz.

T c by EU U g bc c cg g-cy. A EU B Ac M (EUBAM) c cb mggg g T gm M-U , y c - T, T c. A m m, Kymm y m cm gm M gg T x c by b by g Mg, g mj ycgc b.

B mm m my c T- m mc cc . Ag

EUBAM gc cc, cy g m z bg, mggg c. N Ucm gm c c T b,c m cb b g y .


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M, mc c cy U q- b Ky c c g.

R c T, g c-mc g m g M, cg cg b x, m c.Mc b T cS m c q. WR , T , Ig Sm m cy f Dcmb c c cmm c. T -

y-m g b gg, c c EU U.S. b. Ag m g b c b my m, M mc T gc.

Bg g R c, b cc mg b m cc Tb cmmy cg M

. T c m b gg Sm my b g C.

F , , b T M b cy cmc . I bm , g m , GDP c S. T Cmm Py gm, byVm V, c

m b cm, T cy mb m y c ggm. M y cmmm W- cy c -.

T EU g y g gM cy m; c by g g-c c, cg , M c y m, c m T c

c x. T mggg m b c, g g-m c U M b cm c m-y x EUBAM m. T T b cmmy



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cc c m my M b qym m cmc b q.

E cmc cc cc, -, bc m m bg. Ag y q y cc-bg, g cg, cm , m c mc m m b . Imy q g cc Tb y b by M gm g m.

M cgy EU b m B m c cmc c c cz, cg T-. T m c c g m b . T U.S. b c EU M, EU g. B m m b c cc y gb g

M E cy.

Recommendations

M m c cmmm mmg EU-M Ac P, cy m m,-c, jc m b m. U

gm c mc , c T cfc g EUg.

T c c c T, Mm cg g - g mc- m by g. I, g c, cy cm , bc mm g-m g.

Rmg cm c b g EUB Ac M (EUBAM) cmm m cmc b q b . C-



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I. Introduction

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F cc y cfc, C G E R Nmb ,Moldova: No Quick Fix, Ag , .

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Article Title

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II. A Changed International Landscape

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III. New Pressure on Transdniestria

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A. How the Transdniestrian Economy Works

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B. The EUs Engagement

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C. The Customs Regime

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