The nervous student‘s guide to the Scottish Independence Referendum

19th September 2014:‚YES‘ or ‚NO‘

to Scottish independence

What is this about?

The most momentous current issue in the UK at the moment is:

Should Scotland become a fully independent country or remain part of the United Kingdom, with a devolved Parliament with enhanced powers?

OK. But why is this such a big issue? Why do the Scots want this? What makes it so

important?

The aim of the ‚pro-independence‘ party is to achieve:

Scottish control of Scottish resources (oil, gas..)Scottish control of Scottish infrastructure (especially the health service)Joining the EU in their own rightHaving armed forces, but no nuclear submarinesA specifically Scottish foreign policy (pro-Europe)Enhancement of Scottish culture and identity... A better deal for the Scottish people altogether, as a small, successful country modelled on Switzerland or Norway

This is such an issue because in case of ‚YES‘...

• Huge constitutional changes would have to be worked out (e.g. representation in Westminster, a ‚rump-UK‘) for full independence by March 2016

• Splitting the forces and moving the submarines would cost billions and weaken the UK as a force

• Scottish oil and gas would be the chief resource, but current companies (Shell, BP) threaten to pull out, causing short-term job loss

• Central government is facing challenge from UKIP, there is a eurosceptic trend, losing Scotland could destabilize the UK further

• Next general election: already May 2015

And in case of ‚NO‘ ?

• Central government in Westminster is already planning a White Paper on (even) greater powers for the Scottish Parliament

• This would be far less complicated constitutionally and there would be less time pressure

• Central government would still be left with the referendum on EU-membership planned for 2017

And who is on which side?

YES:Current Scottish government, First Minister Alex Salmond, Deputy Nicola Sturges, Scottish National Party

Many Scots in the Highlands and Islands, less privileged parts of the society

NO:Current British government, PM Cameron (Conservative), Nick Clegg (LibDems)Also leader of the opposition, Ed Miliband (Labour)- all in the ‚Better Together‘-campaignMany Scots in the cities, the central belt, the middle class

Most English / Welsh / other people living in Scotland

Why is this suddenly such news?

• For a long time, opinion polls clearly indicated the vote would never go for independence. But over the last few weeks this has changed – it is now a close call, in some polls the ‚YES‘-side is winning. This could actually happen!

• Most Scots want a fairly close result, whichever way, so that neither side can triumph or claim a clear mandate.

And how did we get here???

• The demand for Scottish independence is not new because Scotland once was independent. But a number of long-term and short-term factors have now culminated in this referendum.

Hostile memories...Like England, Scotland emerged as a strong kingdom in the early middle ages.

Tension with England ran through several centuries and many battles, reaching an intense phase in the ‚Wars of Independence‘.

The film made about one Scottish leader from that time, William Wallace, is a contributing factor to the current bid for independence, although SNP-leader Alex Salmond does not trade on this.

Major battles were:– King Robert the Bruce defeating Edward II of England at Bannockburn in 1314– Henry VIII‘s army defeating James IV of Scotland at Flodden in 1513

But in between battles, there were also marriage deals. This is why at the death of Elizabeth I of England in 1603, the virgin queen, her nephew James VI of Scotland also became James I of England.

From united crowns to united parliaments

Although there was now one monarch ruling England and Scotland, they remained separate entities – each retained their Parliament.

However, by 1707 the Scottish economy had collapsed due to the failure of a colonizing project in Panama. Hoping for a bail-out, the Scottish Parliament asked for political union.

The Scottish Parliament, however, was prorogued, not totally abolished. The Scottish legal, financial and education systems remained separate.

More hostility...

Relations remained hostile due to:a) The assumed cultural superiority of the Englishb) A political challenge to the English throne by a sideline of the royal Stewart family, the ‚Pretenders‘ – especially the Highlander Scots joined Bonnie Prince Charlie in the usurpation attempt he led. The defeat by the English at the Battle of Culloden in 1746 broke any remaining political power. Highland culture, e.g. Gaelic, was essentially outlawed – the English became an occupation army in the Highlands. (parallel to Ireland)

Winners and losers: reactions to being British

LowlandsAfter 1745, the Lowlands...- flourished economically- made Scottish financial and

legal expertise famous- helped build the Empire

with Scottish engineering - the Scottish Enlightenment

put Scotland on the map intellectually

HighlandsAfter 1745, the Highlands...- remained depowered- lost culture and traditions- became victims of the

‚clearances‘ by absentee landlords, which generated waves of emigration especially to Canada

- the clearances are still a trauma

Pulling together 1850 - 1950

• The British Empire offered enough opportunities for everybody, Scotland could share in its glory, Scottish engineers in British ships worked all over the globe (that‘s why the engineer on the ‚Enterprise‘ is called ‚Scotty‘)

• Two world wars engendered a ‚stand-together‘-spirit, both London and Glasgow were heavily bombeld during the ‚Blitz‘

But what went wrong after 1950?

• Sotland‘s shipbuilding and other heavy industry declined

• The traditional working class suffered heavily and mostly morphed into a deprived underclass

• When North Sea oil was discovered, it was exploited by British companies, the revenue was used by Margaret Thatcher to fund her fight against the trade unions

• The Thatcher government used the Scots as ‚guinea pigs‘ for the unpopular poll tax – this still rankles

... and how could this change?

• The first Blair Labour government in 1997 immediately implemented the promised referendum on Devolution

• Devolution (devolving power from the centre to regional government) resulted in a Parliament with tax-varying powers for Scotland (and Assemblies for Northern Ireland and Wales)

• Since 2007 the Scottish National Party led by Alex Salmond has been in government in Edinburgh, since 2011 with a majority

Plus - Scotland is now ‚in fashion‘

The sense of ‚being Scottish‘ has been intensified by...- The revival of Gaelic since the 1970ies- Scots, Scottish accents (Pippin!) featuring in successful

British films (and Sean Connery supporting independence)- Glasgow reinventing itself as a city of art and design- Edinburgh reviving its festival, continuing as a successful

finance place- A huge revival in the whisky industry- Scottish universities climbing up the rankings- Tourism, quality of life, discovery of the Scottish outdoors

The state of play?

• Central government is seriously worried – on September 10 all three major party leaders – David Cameron, Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband – came north of the border to support the idea of staying united – a United Kingdom

• Due to the phoo-finish-polls more voters are getting mobilized (the Scottish Parliament had lowered the voting age to 16 to include young people supporting independence)

Support for Scottish Independence through the years

... but as the campaign is hotting up...

... the tone is getting harsh

• e.g.: J.K. Rowling, the author of the Harry Potter series which she started writing in an Edinburgh café, advocated staying within the UK and was inundated with hate mail from radicalized supporters of independence

• Major companies and banks warn against price rises and job losses and consider relocating to England. Scaremongering?

• BBC main news are now screened from the streets of Scotland• The first street scuffles are being reported

This is going to be the major task whatever the outcome: to recreate togetherness within Scotland.

The latest:A new opinion poll onScottish independence has found the no vote back in the lead at 53% of voters, suggesting the sudden surge in backing for independence has subsided.Earlier this week, aYouGov poll for the Times found that the yes vote was in the lead for the first time by two points.

From: guardian online, 10092014

Sources

• http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-essential-guide#101 (acc 10092014)

• BBC news Scotland (online), BBC news• YouGov• Total Politics