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The National Household Travel Survey. Heather Contrino US Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Office of Highway Policy Information. Outline of Today’s Presentation. About the NHTS Methods and Data Data Applications NHTS Products and Tools. About the NHTS. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The National Household Travel Survey
Heather Contrino US Department of TransportationFederal Highway Administration
Office of Highway Policy Information
Outline of Today’s Presentation
About the NHTS Methods and Data Data Applications NHTS Products and Tools
About the NHTS
About the NHTS…
Only national data source on travel demand and travel behavior of the American public.
Measures travel by US households for all modes and all purposes
Survey conducted since 1969
The NHTS obtains information on the public’s use of the transportation system
Passenger Travel82%
Freight14%
Commercial Drivers4%
Highway Statistics, 2001
Highway StatisticsTotal VMT
(000,000s)
2,781,462
Highway StatisticsPassenger Travel
2,282,890
NHTS 2001 VMT 2,281,863
The NHTS Program – Two Components
National Study Serves the department, congress, and
administration Sample size of 25,000 households
Add-On Program Allows States and MPOs to purchase additional
samples for their local area Program participation has doubled every survey
year(Sample size of 125,000 households for 2008)
NHTS Program Structure
NHTS Program
National Study
n = 25,000List Assisted RDD
Add-On Program
n = 125,000List Assisted RDD
Some Additional Questions
Cell Only n = 1,250National coverage
2008 Add-On Program Participants
125,000 Add-On Samples
Florida DOT
Georgia DOT
South Carolina DOT
North Carolina DOTPiedmont Region
Virginia DOT
New York State DOT
Indiana DOTOmaha, Nebraska
Cedar Rapids, IAIowa DOT
Maricopa, AZPima, AZ
California DOT
Wisconsin DOT
Tennessee DOT
Texas DOT
South Dakota DOT
Vermont DOT
NHTS Add-On Program Benefits
What We Get Leadership in household travel survey data Larger program, visibility, stakeholders and users Greater analysis power
What They Get Administrative Functions (program management,
contracting, and quality assurance) Comparability Legitimacy Partnership
NHTS Program Features
Adding questions – each Add-On allowed five additional questions
Sample plan – area specific sample plans (within the constraints of overall sample methodology)
Quality Assurance – On-line access to status reports and monthly progress reports to Add-Ons
Study Design and Data
Study Design
National list assisted RDD with CATI Population of interest - US Households
with telephones Advance letter with incentives Multi-stage design
Advance Letter
Household Recruitment Diary Mailing
Travel Data Retrieval
Study Design (continued)
Single day travel period for all household members age 5+
All trips by all modes of travel, including walk and bike and access and egress modes
NHTS covers all days of the year with day of week and month of year balance
Study Design - New for 2008
Minimum State samples (n=250) Cell Phone only sample Add-On specific questionnaire content New data items for national study Improvements in weighting and
adjustments
NHTS uses a classic travel diary as a memory jogger…
At the beginning of my travel day (4:00 a.m.) I was: Home Some other place
WHERE did you go?
(Name of place)
What TIME did you start and end each
trip?
WHY did you go there?
HOW did you travel?
How FAR was it?
Started at: Arrived at:
(blocks or miles)
EXAMPLE:
West Park Theater2:00 p.m. 2:55
p.m.
To see a movie walk, bus, walk
6 miles
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
And obtains trips from one address to another by all modes…
01/17/01
Please remember, a trip is whenever you go from one address to another. OMB Nos.: 2139-0008; 2125-0545 Have this travel diary by the phone when the interviewer calls. You do not need to mail the diary back to us. Thanks Expiration date: xx/xx/xx
Example of Trips on a Travel Day
Trip 2 Walk Work
Home
Trip 4 Walk, subway, car
Lunch at Restaurant
Trip 5 Car
Trip 6 Car
Grocery store
Daycare center
Trip 1 Car, subway, walk
Trip 3 Walk
NHTS links households, people, vehicles, and trips…
NHTS Core Data Content Households
Income, composition, location
Persons Age, sex, race, ethnicity, worker and student status, citizenship,
education
Geography High level geography – urban, rural, suburban, state and national
analyses
Vehicles Make, model, year, mileage, alternative fuels, commercially licensed
Trips Mode, time of day, purpose, vehicle occupancy, distance, trip length
Major ContributionLinkage between people,
travel and vehicles
New 2008 NHTS Content
Congestion Interstate use and tolling Telecommuting – opportunity and frequency Work arrival time and flexibility
Safety Safe Travel to School Travel impacts of disability
Energy and Environment Shopping by Internet and deliveries to the household Hybrid/Alternative fuel vehicles Fuel costs by vehicle type and travel behavior Vehicle age, odometer reading, and annual mileage
Alternative Modes Access (to transit) travel party size Frequency of walk and bike Motorcycle ownership and use
Data Applications
Trend Data - There has been amazing growth in travel since 1969
Growth in Travel and Related Issues, 1969 - 2001
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250% Persons Households Person Trips Person Miles
Vehicle Trips Vehicle Miles Road Miles Annual Fatalities
N0x Emmission C0 VOC
Base: NHTS series since 1969
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
All Men Women
Trips/Person 1995Trips/Person 2001
Base: NHTS data series, travelers 16+
Travel Demand – But in the last decade, total trips have leveled off…
Congestion - Non-work Travel Adds to Peak Period Congestion
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Start Hour
Pe
rso
n T
rips
in M
illio
ns
Commute Fam/Pers (inc. Shop) School/Ch Soc/Rec
Mobility and impacts on access and travel options
This is the daily range of
travel for a low-income
African American
This is the daily range of
travel for a high income
African American
NHTS is used to develop daytime populations for security research…
Source: 2001 NHTS, Nate Erlbaum, NY DOT
Number of workers at
work, visitors, people in
motion and people at home
2:00 pm Tuesday
Memphis, TN
And for special studies… (example Florida DOT)
Hurricane Evacuation Planning Weekend and Holiday Travel Planning Seasonal Resident Impact
Broward County, Florida
Source: ACS 1999-2002, U.S. Census Bureau
Legend
SeasonalSEASONAL_1
No
Yes
Changes in population growth effect transportation demand
Top Ten States in Pct Growth of VMT to 2050
0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0%
Virginia
Oregon
Washington
Georgia
North Carolina
Idaho
Utah
Texas
Florida
Arizona
Nevada
Estimated on current VMT/person from NHTS and Census population forecast
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ann
ual M
iles
in B
illio
ns
Men Women All
The driving population is aging…
Projections show a doubling of VMT by 2040 for drivers aged 65 and over
Base:Census projections and VMT/person from NHTS 2001
Which has safety implications as older drivers are more likely to be in a fatal accident…
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
16-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Num
ber
of A
nnua
l Fat
aliti
es p
er 1
00 m
il. V
MT
Base: NHTS data on driver miles by age and FARS fatalities
Reliable data on walk trips…
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
National NE Census Region NYCMSA
Minutes in Walk per capita Miles in Walk per capita
Which are used for Safety
Planning… Pedestrian Fatalities per Mile of Exposure
Source: 2001 FARS pedestrian Fatalities and NHTS 2001 miles walked
And to help understand the link between transportation and health:
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
No Car 1 Car 2 Cars 3 Cars
VM
T P
er D
rive
r
Is increased vehicle use related to reduced walking and biking?
Mode Share to Walk/Bike VMT Per Driver
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
No Car 1 Car 2 Cars 3 Cars
Mo
de
Sh
are
to W
alk/
Bik
e
Source: Matt Coogan
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
African-Amer
Hispanic
White
Percent
Percent of Workerswho Took Transit toWork
Percent of Workerswith Workplaceswithin .25 miles of aBus Line
Percent of PopulationResiding within .25miles of Bus Line
Transit planners can use NHTS to understand who uses transit…
Shop/Errands23%
Visit/Soc18%
School/Church12%
Other12%
Work35%
Percent of Transit Trips by Purpose
And how transit is used:(not just commuting)
Based on current VMT per vehicle:Pct Decrease
(Impact)
Base Case (Current Est.) <null>
If 20% of vehicle fleet were hybrid (55 mpg) 2.5%
If fuel efficiency were raised 10% for all vehicles 9.1%
If all Vans, SUVs and P-U were replaced by cars 11.6%
If fuel efficiency were raised to 29 mpg for all vehicles 31.7%
If we doubled fuel efficiency in each vehicle class 50.0%
‘What if’ scenarios for climate change:
Source: McGuckin’s analysis based on NHTS 2001
And cold and hot starts for air quality analysis:
Vehicle Starts, Trip Lengths by Time of Day and Vehicle Utilization
Source: 2001 NHTS, Nate Erlbaum, NY DOT
We also include and track gas costs in our dataset:
Percent of Income Spent on Gasoline in Daily Household Travel, 2001 and 2006
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
<10K $10-20K $20-30K $30-40K $40-50K $50-60K $60-70K $70-80K $80-100K
$100K+
Pct of Income Spent on Gas 01 Pct of Income Spent on Gas 06
Which allows us a unique perspective on the economics of travel:
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50
CAR
VAN
SUV
P-U
CAR
VAN
SUV
P-U
CAR
VAN
SUV
P-US
ho
pp
ing
So
cia
l/Re
cW
ork
Cost for an average trip, 2006
NHTS Status and Schedule
2008 NHTS Schedule
Data collection completed – April 2009 Final weighted data file – October 2009 Public Use file – January 2010 Methods Research (for next NHTS) and
work for reauthorization is ongoing
Future Design Goals
Methods Coverage and Response Rates
Cellular phones and non-contacts
Periodicity Real time reporting environment Continuous study design/annual reporting
Relevant Content Establishing regular, reliable performance measures Maintaining trends while addressing new policy and
planning questions
NHTS Program Goals
Institutionalize the Study Specific program authorization and regular funding cycle
Maintain Add-On Program Regular State and MPO participation – federal, local and
community gains Serve User Community
Clear link to policy and planning questions National and State travel indicators On-line Analyses
Annual reporting of Key Measures Modeling and data integration to provide annual estimates Annual/continuous data collection Feed into performance measurement, annual reporting to
Congress (C&P), and other data programs (e.g. FARS)
NHTS Products and Tools
NHTS Products State Profiles Policy Briefs Trends Database Transferability On-line Analysis Tool Risk Assessment Tool
AAA Traffic Safety Foundation
NHTS
TrendsCD-ROM
Policy Briefs
State Profiles
NHTS Website
On-line Analysis Tools
Table Designer Tool
Local Area Estimation
Accessing NHTS Products
State Profiles Policy Briefs: http://ornl.gov/publications.shtml#issueBriefs
Trends Database: To be posted soon
Local area estimation:
http://fmip.ornl.gov/nhts/
Risk Assessment Tool:
http://www.aaafoundation.org/trafficSTATS/
On-line Analysis Tool: http://nhts.ornl.gov
SAS Data Set: http://nhts.ornl.gov/download.shtml
Contact Heather Contrino, FHWA
Thank You!Heather Contrino