The MTG Weekly Tactical Asset Update 4/21/2017 › resources › MTG Tactical Asse… · A Trend is your friend when navigating volatile markets and economic conditions . Trends

The MTG Weekly Tactical Asset Update

Page Contents 2 Long Term Tactical Asset Prices and Momentum Trends

3-6 Domestic Equities

7 Asset Primary & Intermediate Relative Strength Trends

Intermediate Trend Summary (Jan. 2015 to Current)

Primary Trend Summary (Jan. 2008 to Current)

Quarterly Trend Summary (Jan. 2001 to Current)

4/21/2017

SPY Declining (3)

TNX-E Declining (4)

T.W.$ Declining (4)

Gold Rising (2)

SPY Rising (2)

TNX-E Rising (2)

T.W.$ Declining (3)

Gold Declining (3)

SPY Declining (3)

TNX-E Declining (4)

T.W.$ Rising (2)

Gold Rising (1)

This representation is intended for informational purposes. Calculations are based solely on historic information and are provided for illustrative purposes only. They are subject to certain limitations. No guarantee can be made of the occurrence of future events or the actual impact such events would have on any investment’s performance. There is no guarantee that the portfolio strategy will be successful, and investors could lose some or all of their investment.

Copyright© MarkeTrendsGlobal 2017.

A Trend is your friend when

navigating volatile markets

and economic conditions

Trends

Intermediate Trends (Weeks to Months)

Primary Trends (Months to Years)

Quarterly Trends (Years)

Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17

Intermediate Momentum Trends: SPY, TNX-E., T.W.$, Gold

SPY TNX T.W. $ Gold

Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Primary Momentum Trends: SPY, TNX-E., T.W.$, XAU

SPY T.W. $ TNX Gold

Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19

Quarterly Momentum Trends: SPY, TNX-E., T.W.$, XAU

SPY T W $ TNX Gold

Short Term Trends (Days to Weeks)

Trend Progression 1 2 3 4

Weekly Price with Quarterly, Primary and Intermediate Asset Momentum Trends


S&P 500 (SPY)

Ten Year Constant Yield (TNX-E)

Trade Weighted Dollar FRED

Gold

2.

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

$240

$260


SPY


S&P: Intermediate Primary & Quarterly Price MomentumTrends

10

20

30

40

50

60


TNX


TNX: Intermediate , Primary & Quarterly Price MomentumTrends

$90

$100

$110

$120

$130

$140


Trade Weighted $


Trade Weighted $: Intermediate, Primary & Quarterly Price MomentumTrends

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000


Gold


Gold: Intermediate, Primary & Quarterly Price MomentumTrends


Exponential Phase

1.

2. 3.

4.

Trends of varying durations interact within a market cycle. A trend’s dominance increases as it’s length increases.

> 0 < 0

3.

New York Stock Exchange Index Trends

NYA Weekly Price NYA Weekly Breadth Indicator

NYA Price % to M.A.

Trend Durations Intermediate: Weeks to Months Primary: Months to Years Quarterly: Years

NYA Price Momentum Trends NYA Breadth Momentum Trends

NYA Breadth Momentum Trends

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19

NYSE Weekly Price

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%


NYSE Price % to M.A.


NYSE Weekly Breadth Indicator


NYSE Breadth Momentum Indicator

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%


NYSE Breadth % to M.A.


NYSE Price Momentum Indicator


Exponential Phase

1.

2. 3.

4.


> 0 < 0

4.

Nasdaq Index Trends

Nasdaq Weekly Price Nasdaq Weekly Breadth Indicator

Nasdaq Price % to M.A.


Nasdaq Price Momentum Trends Nasdaq Breadth Momentum Trends

500

2,500

4,500

6,500


Nasdaq Weekly Price

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%


Nasdaq Price % to M.A.


Nasdaq Weekly Breadth Indicator

Nasdaq Breadth % to M.A.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%


Nasdaq Breadth % to M.A.


Nasdaq Breadth Momentum Indicator


Nasdaq Price Momentum Indicator


Exponential Phase

1.

2. 3.

4.


> 0 < 0

5.

Intermediate Trends can last from weeks to months while Primary Trends have durations of months to years.

Domestic Equity Price & Trend Interaction

Short Term Trends Interact within Intermediate Trends

SPY Daily Price With Short & Intermediate Trends

Intermediate Trends Interact within Primary Trends

SPY Weekly Price With Intermediate & Primary Trends

Trend Position

Short Term Declining (4)

Intermediate Declining (3)

Primary Rising (2)

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

$240


SPY Weekly Closing Price % to Moving Average


Intermediate & Primary Trend Composite Indicator

$175

$185

$195

$205

$215

$225

$235

$245

Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17

SPY Daily Closing Price with Moving Average & Percent Bands

Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17

Short Term & Intermediate Trend Adj Momentum

1.

3.

2.

1.

2.

3.

1.

2.

3.

Copyright© MarkeTrendsGlobal 2017. 6.

Alternative Measures of Intermediate Domestic Equity Trends

Market Psychology with Intermediate Trend R/S to S&P

Leading Economic Indicator with R/S to SPY


Leading Economic Indicator Weekly Closing Price

NYSE Breadth Indicator with R/S to SPY

SPY with Intermediate Yield Spreads (Inv.) & NYSE Internals Intermediate Momentum Trends

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18

Leading Economic Indicator R/S to SPY

(3) Declining

(3) Declining

(3) Declining

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Dec-17

Intermediate Trend Market Psych R/S to S&P


Market Psychology

(3) Declining

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220

$240


SPY Weekly Closing Price % to Moving Average


NYSE Weekly Breadth Indicator

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18

Intermediate Momentum: Internals & Yield Spreads (Inv.)

Yld Sprd INT

Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Dec-17

NYSE Breadth Indicator Trend R/S To S&P


Exponential Phase

1.

2. 3.

4.


> 0 < 0

Primary & Intermediate Asset Relative Strength Trends

7.

Long Term Treasury (TLT) & Treasury TIPS (TIP) Primary & Intermediate R/S Trends

Long Dollar (UUP) & Gold (GLD) Primary & Intermediate R/S Momentum Trends


Growth Sector (XLK) & Defensive Sector (XLP) Primary & Intermediate R/S Momentum Trends


TIP & TLT Primary R/S Trends

TLT TIP

Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

TIP & TLT Intermediate R/S Trends

TLT TIP


GLD & $ (UUP) Primary R/S Trends

UUP GLD


GLD & $ (UUP) Intermediate R/S Trends

UUP GLD


XLK & XLP Primary R/S Trends

XLP XLK


XLK & XLP Intermediate R/S Trends

XLP XLK

S&P (SPY) & Intermediate Tsy. (IEF) Primary & Intermediate R/S Momentum Trends


SPY & IEF Primary R/S Trends

IEF SPY


SPY & IEF Intermediate R/S Trends

IEF SPY

Documents

The MTG Weekly Tactical Asset Update 4/21/2017 › resources › MTG Tactical Asse… · A Trend is your friend when navigating volatile markets and economic conditions . Trends