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The Moon “Backwards”. Peter A. Garretson. Our leadership says we will be there. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The MoonThe Moon “Backwards” “Backwards”
Peter A. GarretsonPeter A. Garretson
America will return to the Moon as early as 2015 and no later than 2020 and use it for a stepping stone for more ambitious missions. A series of robotic missions to the Moon...will explore the lunar surface beginning no later than 2008 to research and prepare for future human exploration. Using the Crew Exploration Vehicle, humans will conduct extended lunar missions as early as 2015, with the goal of living and working there for increasingly extended periods."
--President Bush Statement on New Space Initiative
Our leadership says we will be there.
• 2003 saw launch to and return from Space of the first astronaut by China.
• China's GNP now exceeds where we were when we began the Apollo Program.
If reports of a manned landing by 2010 are exaggerated, Ouyang Ziyuan was willing to say that he could foresee manned outposts on the Moon in the long-term, "perhaps by 2020 or 2030". The Moon could serve as a new and tremendous supplier of energy and resources for human beings," he said. "This is crucial to sustainable development of human beings on Earth." "Whoever first conquers the Moon will benefit first," Mr Ouyang added. "As for China, it needs to adopt a strategy based on its concrete economic power and technology level. "We are also looking further out into the Solar System - to Mars." --Ouyang Ziyuan, chief scientist of China's Moon exploration programme
The Dragon in SpaceCompetition!
Competition!Competition! "We are planning to build a "We are planning to build a
permanent base on the moon permanent base on the moon by 2015 and by 2020 we can by 2015 and by 2020 we can begin the industrial-scale begin the industrial-scale delivery ... of the rare isotope delivery ... of the rare isotope Helium-3," Nikolai Helium-3," Nikolai Sevastyanov, head of the Sevastyanov, head of the Energia space corporation, Energia space corporation, was quoted by ITAR-TASS was quoted by ITAR-TASS news agency as saying at an news agency as saying at an academic conference. academic conference.
Location: Location: The moon is closeThe moon is close
Just 60-70 hours away (3 days)238,712 mi (384,400 km)
LocationLocation
Location:Location:
The moon is a strategic position, everyone The moon is a strategic position, everyone must pass by it to go anywhere elsemust pass by it to go anywhere else
LOC Control: The equivalent of the Rock of Gibraltar
Location:Location: The moon is a The moon is a
fueling station and fueling station and safe harbor, not safe harbor, not unlike Hawaii in the unlike Hawaii in the age of coalage of coal
Location:Location: The moon is a stable platform from which The moon is a stable platform from which
to view the earth and starsto view the earth and stars
Land:Land:
More surface area than all of AfricaMore surface area than all of Africa
Surface Area - 14,657,449 mi sq. (37,958,621 km sq.) 9.4 billion acres
Resources:Resources: The moon is rich, and you don’t have to The moon is rich, and you don’t have to
carry its wealth up the gravity wellcarry its wealth up the gravity well
Resources: IronResources: Iron
Resources: TitaniumResources: Titanium
Resources: Rare EarthsResources: Rare Earths
Energy Security:Energy Security: The moon has virtually The moon has virtually
unlimited He3unlimited He3 About 1 million tons of About 1 million tons of heliumhelium 3 3
on the on the moonmoon, enough to power , enough to power the world for thousands of yearsthe world for thousands of years
He3 costs about $6B/ton on He3 costs about $6B/ton on earth earth
He3 can be burned for He3 can be burned for propulsion nowpropulsion now
Energy Security:Energy Security: The moon has virtually unlimited The moon has virtually unlimited
materials for Solar Power Station materials for Solar Power Station ConstructionConstruction
Facts: Facts:
It takes It takes less energyless energy, and is technically , and is technically less less complexcomplex (no atmosphere or aerodynamics (no atmosphere or aerodynamics) to ) to get materials from the Moonget materials from the Moon to LEO than to to LEO than to get the materials from the Earth to LEO.get the materials from the Earth to LEO.
There are There are adequate materials on the Moonadequate materials on the Moon (aluminum, titanium, iron, oxygen, silicon) (aluminum, titanium, iron, oxygen, silicon) to to construct many objects of interestconstruct many objects of interest (Rocket (Rocket Motors, Fuel Tanks, Shelters, etc.)Motors, Fuel Tanks, Shelters, etc.)
22 times less energy!22 times less energy!
1/61/6thth Earth’s Gravity (0.1622 gee) but Earth’s Gravity (0.1622 gee) but It takes more than 21.7 times the energy It takes more than 21.7 times the energy
to get the same payload off the Earth!to get the same payload off the Earth! lunar escapelunar escape velocity of 2.4 km/s velocity of 2.4 km/s Earth Escape velocity 11.2 km/sEarth Escape velocity 11.2 km/s
A Lot Less Propellant!A Lot Less Propellant! A Lot Higher Payload Mass Fraction!A Lot Higher Payload Mass Fraction! And no Air Resistance or DragAnd no Air Resistance or Drag Allows expansion of CIS-Lunar Mass by 1 Allows expansion of CIS-Lunar Mass by 1
to 2 orders of magnitudeto 2 orders of magnitude
A Logos Study said:A Logos Study said:
Payload Mass Fraction Earth to LEO: 1.5%Payload Mass Fraction Earth to LEO: 1.5% Payload Mass Fraction, Lunar Surface to Payload Mass Fraction, Lunar Surface to
Low Lunar Orbit (LLO): 50% Escape: 35%Low Lunar Orbit (LLO): 50% Escape: 35% To put 2,400 tons into CIS-Lunar space (L2) To put 2,400 tons into CIS-Lunar space (L2)
would take:would take: 35 launches in the first 5 years (Titan IVB) to put 35 launches in the first 5 years (Titan IVB) to put
3T on the Moon, or…3T on the Moon, or… 810 launches over 15 years810 launches over 15 years
Dennis Wingo SaysDennis Wingo Says 3 Billion Metric Tons of 3 Billion Metric Tons of
impact metal having 62 impact metal having 62 million Kilos of Platinum million Kilos of Platinum Group MetalsGroup Metals
A Single “Diablo Canyon” A Single “Diablo Canyon” size impactor would have size impactor would have left between 450 million to left between 450 million to 1.77 billion tons of 1.77 billion tons of economically recoverable economically recoverable nickel/iron/cobalt/PGM nickel/iron/cobalt/PGM material, worth around $20 material, worth around $20 TrillionTrillion
But Lee Morin says:But Lee Morin says:
$100,000/lb—anything you can make from lunar $100,000/lb—anything you can make from lunar materials has an intrinsic value add of $100,000/lb materials has an intrinsic value add of $100,000/lb
We can only get 10% of the mass we can get to We can only get 10% of the mass we can get to LEO to the Lunar Surface (one way)LEO to the Lunar Surface (one way) Surveyor was 408 kg or 900 lbsSurveyor was 408 kg or 900 lbs Apollo was 6,900 kg or 15,211 lbsApollo was 6,900 kg or 15,211 lbs
Actual Deliverable with COTS: 1000 kgActual Deliverable with COTS: 1000 kg Compound Interest: If a 1000 kg “seed” can Compound Interest: If a 1000 kg “seed” can
replicate 114 grams an hour, it doubles every yearreplicate 114 grams an hour, it doubles every year
Wouldn’t it be nice?Wouldn’t it be nice?
How nice it would be if the How nice it would be if the first new visitors to first new visitors to the Mothe Moon could be picked up in Earth orbit, and on could be picked up in Earth orbit, and be be taken to a fully outfitted basetaken to a fully outfitted base. Would it not . Would it not be nice if be nice if the first gueststhe first guests to the Moon could be to the Moon could be paying guestspaying guests as they are on the first flight of an as they are on the first flight of an Airliner? How could we make this happen?Airliner? How could we make this happen?
Here is the basic idea:Here is the basic idea:
Don’t lift fuel and spaceships from the Don’t lift fuel and spaceships from the Earth to get to the Moon in order to Earth to get to the Moon in order to then build a colony there. Rather, build then build a colony there. Rather, build the colony and space-ships on the the colony and space-ships on the Moon where the gravity well is small, Moon where the gravity well is small, and send the fuel and spaceshipsand send the fuel and spaceships..
Queens and WorkersQueens and Workers
Workers feed QueenWorkers feed Queen Queen makes Workers Queen makes Workers
(Diggers)(Diggers)
Operational PhasesOperational Phases
Phase 0: DesignPhase 0: Design Phase 1: Send the TeamPhase 1: Send the Team Phase 2: Digger ReplicationPhase 2: Digger Replication Phase 3: Colony SplitPhase 3: Colony Split Phase 4: Base ConstructionPhase 4: Base Construction Phase 5: Spaceship ConstructionPhase 5: Spaceship Construction Phase 6: Ferry to Lunar OrbitPhase 6: Ferry to Lunar Orbit Phase 7: Ferry to Earth OrbitPhase 7: Ferry to Earth Orbit Phase 8: Stable OpsPhase 8: Stable Ops
Phase 0: DesignPhase 0: Design
Digger & Queen Replication with Digger & Queen Replication with maximum use of Lunar materials and maximum use of Lunar materials and minimum “vitamins” from Earthminimum “vitamins” from Earth
Keep Total Mass SmallKeep Total Mass Small
A lesson from natureA lesson from nature
SpecializationSpecialization
Screen ManufacturingScreen Manufacturing
Extrude Screen to make multiple objectsExtrude Screen to make multiple objects Foil, or inflatables may also be appropriateFoil, or inflatables may also be appropriate
Sheet Metal WorkingSheet Metal Working
Simple, well-known techniquesSimple, well-known techniques Create a variety of complex shapesCreate a variety of complex shapes
Vapor Deposition ProcessVapor Deposition Process
Successive deposition of layers (Iron, Successive deposition of layers (Iron, Titanium, Silicon) over mesh to create Titanium, Silicon) over mesh to create
Solid Complex shapes, structural Solid Complex shapes, structural members, IC’s and pressure volumesmembers, IC’s and pressure volumes
Phase 1: Send the TeamPhase 1: Send the Team
One Queen and two One Queen and two DiggersDiggers
Phase 2: Digger Phase 2: Digger ReplicationReplication
Diggers bring the raw materials to the Diggers bring the raw materials to the queen, which the queen processesqueen, which the queen processes
Digger ReplicationDigger Replication
Phase 3: Colony SplitPhase 3: Colony Split
Phase 4: Base Phase 4: Base ConstructionConstruction
Create Pressure VesselsCreate Pressure Vessels Fill them with Lunar OxygenFill them with Lunar Oxygen
Pave Landing ZonesPave Landing Zones Pave Solar CellsPave Solar Cells Burry Pressure VesselsBurry Pressure Vessels
Phase 4: Base Phase 4: Base ConstructionConstruction
Phase 5: Spaceship Phase 5: Spaceship ConstructionConstruction
Even rocket engines can be Even rocket engines can be mademade
Launch is simplified:Launch is simplified: No Atmosphere; no ShroudsNo Atmosphere; no Shrouds No volume, aero constraintsNo volume, aero constraints
Phase 6: Ferry to Lunar Phase 6: Ferry to Lunar OrbitOrbit
Launch both Launch both pressure vessels pressure vessels and propellantand propellant
Use precious Use precious metals (PGMs) as metals (PGMs) as the pressure the pressure vesselsvessels
Phase 7: Ferry to Earth Phase 7: Ferry to Earth OrbitOrbit
Roomy vessels only need to be furnishedRoomy vessels only need to be furnished Arrive in LEO ready for pick-upArrive in LEO ready for pick-up People only need to get to LEOPeople only need to get to LEO
Phase 8: Stable OpsPhase 8: Stable Ops
First visitors First visitors arrive to a arrive to a spacious facilityspacious facility
Stable OpsStable Ops
Living Quarters for IndustryLiving Quarters for Industry Living Quarters for TourismLiving Quarters for Tourism Living Quarters for ExplorationLiving Quarters for Exploration
Future GrowthFuture Growth
Mass DriverMass Driver Lunar ElevatorLunar Elevator
Future GrowthFuture Growth
Lunar ObservationLunar Observation Lunar “GPS”Lunar “GPS” LIDAR / EO/ IR / SARLIDAR / EO/ IR / SAR
Lunar Com RelayLunar Com Relay Cell-PhoneCell-Phone InternetInternet
Future GrowthFuture Growth
Earth Staring TelescopesEarth Staring Telescopes Sky SurveySky Survey
Future GrowthFuture Growth
Manufacture:Manufacture: IC’s, Satellites, Turbine Blades, IC’s, Satellites, Turbine Blades,
Pharmaceuticals, Jewelry,Pharmaceuticals, Jewelry, Nanoparticles (aluminum)Nanoparticles (aluminum)
Future GrowthFuture Growth
Near Earth Asteroid & Near Earth Asteroid & dead comet dead comet exploitationexploitation Mining for metalsMining for metals Mining for carbonMining for carbon Mining for iceMining for ice
Future GrowthFuture Growth
““Dredge the Harbor”Dredge the Harbor” Planetary DefensePlanetary Defense
Future GrowthFuture Growth
Space Solar PowerSpace Solar Power Lunar Solar PowerLunar Solar Power
Future GrowthFuture Growth
A new A new population population CenterCenter
An insurance An insurance policy for policy for humanityhumanity
Future GrowthFuture Growth
Fusion?Fusion? Helium 3?Helium 3? Power for EarthPower for Earth Power for ExplorationPower for Exploration
Energy ResourcesEnergy Resources
World TrendsWorld Trends Demand Doubles, CO2 SkyrocketsDemand Doubles, CO2 Skyrockets
Temperatures RiseTemperatures Rise
We’re gonna need it!We’re gonna need it!
The Old View of SpaceThe Old View of Space
OrbitalOrbital State-ownedState-owned Com / NavCom / Nav The “High The “High
Ground”Ground”
The New View of SpaceThe New View of Space CIS-LunarCIS-Lunar CommercialCommercial The OceanThe Ocean New roles and New roles and
missionsmissions Energy Energy
SecuritySecurity Coast GuardCoast Guard Planetary Planetary
DefenseDefense LOC & LOC &
investment investment protectionprotection
Questions?Questions?
Solar Power SatellitesSolar Power Satellites
"because of large scale operation of the system, "because of large scale operation of the system, delivered power costs are predicted delivered power costs are predicted to be competitive with coal or nuclear power plantsto be competitive with coal or nuclear power plants. For example, if a $12.5 billion . For example, if a $12.5 billion ($2,500 per kilowatt in 1981 dollars) system capable of ($2,500 per kilowatt in 1981 dollars) system capable of 5,000 megawatt output5,000 megawatt output were were purchased, it might cost around purchased, it might cost around $78 billion over 40 years to own and operate it$78 billion over 40 years to own and operate it ($12 ($12 billion in depreciation plus $21 billion interest at 12 percent, $33 billion earnings at 18 billion in depreciation plus $21 billion interest at 12 percent, $33 billion earnings at 18 percent, plus $12 billion in operating expenses, taxes, and other costs). The station percent, plus $12 billion in operating expenses, taxes, and other costs). The station would deliver. Hence, the average cost of the power delivered is under five cents per would deliver. Hence, the average cost of the power delivered is under five cents per kilowatt hour. A comprehensive assessment of a kilowatt hour. A comprehensive assessment of a 1.6 trillion kilowatt hours of power 1.6 trillion kilowatt hours of power over 40 years over 40 years representative space based energy system was conducted by the representative space based energy system was conducted by the Department of Energy from 1977 to 1981. Their evaluation did not reveal any Department of Energy from 1977 to 1981. Their evaluation did not reveal any technological barrierstechnological barriers....Finally, demonstration of cost attainability for key system ....Finally, demonstration of cost attainability for key system elements would be required prior to seeking funds for full scale implementation. (High elements would be required prior to seeking funds for full scale implementation. (High Frontier, pg. 34) Frontier, pg. 34)