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november 9, 2020 `75www.indiatoday.in

farm revolution 2.0

COVID-19: BRACING FOR THE SECOND WAVE

ECONOMY: THE FESTIVE SEASON UPTICK

PRIYANKA’S CONGRESS REVIVAL PROJECT IN UP

Why the modi government’s agri reforms can transform rural india

and hoW to make them Work

Why the modi government’s agri reforms can transform rural india

and hoW to make them Work

Why the modi government’s agri reforms can transform rural india

and hoW to make them Work

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eferring to reforms, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is supposed to have once told somebody that “India is a long freight train which has to be turned carefully, otherwise it will overturn”. I can’t confirm

whether he said it, but the analogy could not be more apt. The Indian economy is burdened with a legacy of populist and ideological policies confounded further by convoluted and superfluous regulations. Many of them not only fail to make economic sense but are also harmful to economic growth. Prime Minister Modi, in his six-year rule, has been undoing them, some even beyond the realm of the economy. He has laid great emphasis on improving living standards in rural India, where 70 per cent of the country’s population lives. He has promised to double farm incomes by 2022 when India celebrates 75 years of Independence. His latest initiative to unshackle agriculture from ruinous socialist-era practices is a step in that direction. The three bills passed in the monsoon session of Parliament this September, if properly implemented, could unlock the vast potential of India’s agriculture sector.

By opening up inter- and intra-state movement of farmers’ produce, the legislations aim to turn the whole country into a market and ending the monopoly of state government-owned markets, namely the Agricultural Produce Market Commit-tees (APMCs), as well as the stranglehold of arthiyas (middlemen). The laws lay a framework for contract farming and tweak the Essential Commodities Act to allow government intervention only in exceptional circumstances. Significantly, the government has not dismantled existing support structures like the APMCs or the Minimum Support Price but only given farmers an additional avenue to sell their crops.

Three decades ago, India set itself on the path of economic liberalisation. With the economy in the doldrums and the treasury empty, the government at the time had no option but to overturn state control and allow market forces in. Nearly 30 years later, in a year of zero economic growth, India has embarked on another path of reform—to open up its farming sector. Agriculture has been untouched by any major reform in over half a century. It lives in a sheltered and wasteful socialist paradise of boundless state support. Therefore, the current legislative moves to deregulate the sector and bring in the market forces of competitive pricing could ring in Indian agriculture’s 1991 moment.

India recorded its highest-ever wheat output—over 100 million tonnes—this year. We are already the world’s largest producer of milk and pulses, and the second-largest producer of wheat, sugarcane, groundnut, vegetables, fruits and cotton. However, years of plentiful harvests have failed to paper over the deep structural crisis in the sector. Agriculture employs 54 per cent of the population but contributes just 17 per cent to GDP. Cultivation is heavily skewed towards rice and wheat production while we have to import edible oils like crude palm oil and soybean oil. We have among the lowest per hectare

yields in the world, in large part due to fragmented and shrinking land holdings—over 80 per cent of India’s farmers have less than two hectares of land. Despite being the world’s largest producer of many agri products, we account for less than 2.5 per cent of the global share of exports. We export only 7 per cent of our total pro-duce, and our agri exports have plateaued over the past five years.

The Green Revolution of the late 1960s—introducing disease-resistant crops, mechanisation and fertilisers—vastly increased India’s agriculture output. From a humiliating ‘ship to mouth’

existence, the reforms helped India become one of the largest producers of foodgrains in the world.

The government’s focus since then has been on the supply side—to merely increase crop out-put. The failure to ensure that farming became profitable by ensuring that the farmer got the best price for his crop has bred a curious conundrum. Our godowns overflow with grain, but heavily indebted farmers kill themselves, farming is ter-ribly unscientific, our groundwater supplies are depleted, and we have among the highest food wastage in the world. Skewed government poli-cies force farmers to grow the wrong crops in the wrong regions, like paddy in water-scarce Punjab. Band-aid solutions like MSP hikes, fertiliser sub-sidies, free water and power supply, or farm loan waivers have only worsened state finances and failed to improve farmers’ plight.

However, the new laws have created a divide between the Centre and Opposition-ruled states. Punjab and Chhattisgarh have enacted legisla-tion opposed to the central laws, with Rajasthan expected to follow suit. In Punjab, the government fears it will lose over Rs 3,000 crore it earns an-nually from the FCI for wheat and paddy procure-ment, while middlemen in the state fear they will lose over Rs 1,200 crore. These vested interests resist change beneficial to the entire sector because it affects their pockets.

Our cover story, ‘Farm Revolution 2.0’, written by Group Editorial Director (Publishing) Raj Chengappa, examines the implications of these legislations on a sector untouched by reform for decades. Chengappa, who has closely followed this sector, believes these initiatives can bring a para-digm shift in agriculture by making it demand-driven. He, however, warns: “There needs to be a

clearly-defined roadmap, otherwise these initiatives could crash, and the government could well burn its fingers.”

Prime Minister Modi is turning his freight train of reforms, and there is no going back. The 1991 reforms liberated India from the 3.5 per cent Hindu rate of growth, accelerating it to over 7 per cent until 2018. If Farm Revolution 2.0 stays the course—and it must—rural India could be transformed forever.

(Aroon Purie)

FROM THE

EDITOR-IN-CHIEF

June 11, 2007

February 12, 2018

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harvest of hopeT h e Modi g ov e r n M e n T i s pu s h i ng h a r d To e n s u r e

a bu M p e r r a bi c rop. aT s Ta k e a r e T h e l i v e l i ho ods of 200 M i l l ion fa r M e r s, 4% of g dp

a n d a de s p e r aT e ly n e e de d econoM ic r e v i va l

GRAIN OF HAPPINESS

Somvir Lohia with his wheat crop in

Matauli village, Haryana

c o r o n a s p e c i a l

plusCovid’s Collateral damage

the raCe to Find a Cure

dharavi: mumbai’s tiCking bomb

Jump-starting industry

may 4, 2020 `60 www.indiatoday.in

R

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How to make Modi government’s agri reforms work

UPFRONTC O V I D VA C C I N E : P O LL P L AC E B O P G 5

T H E R E L I A N C E - A M A Z O N FAC E - O F F PG 8

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Q & A W I T H M A NA S I J O S H I

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FARM REVOLUTION 2.0

A RAINBOW CAMPAIGN

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A REASON TO TRAVEL

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The ` may hold the edge in the assembly by-election, but has Team Shivraj-Scindia covered all bases?

India is bracing—and preparing—for a likely second wave of Covid-19 cases

The third edition of the India Today Group Tourism Awards was a platform to discuss ways to revive tourism

Come Diwali and Priyanka Gandhi plans to make UP her home and battleground for a Congress revival

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NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 5

P romises are free, and those made in the heat of elec-tioneering best not taken at face value. The October 22

announcement of Union finance minis-ter Nirmala Sitharaman, offering a free Covid vaccine to all residents of poll-bound Bihar, is one such promise. In any case, the ‘free vaccine’ jumla, which even finds place in the BJP’s manifesto for the Bihar elections, needn’t have any cost implications for the central exche-quer—health is a state subject, and the Centre, at best, underwrites a portion of

the expenses. Which makes the promise that much more facile.

Sitharaman’s announcement has had a domino effect, nevertheless. It’s festival season, after all—the season of giving and receiving gifts. On cue from the Union finance minister, the chief ministers of at least three BJP-ruled states, at last count—Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Assam—and one NDA ally (E.K. Palaniswami of the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu) grabbed the opportuni-ty to make similar offers. It didn’t seem to matter that a vaccine is nowhere

in sight yet, that nobody really knows when it may be ready and available, whether there will be adequate stocks—and how much it might cost.

Another Union minister, Pratap Sarangi, travelling in his home state Odisha, went a step further, claim-ing preparations were in full swing to provide the Covid vaccine free of cost to all Indians across the country. The Telangana health minister Eatala Rajender was a little more circum-spect, declaring that the KCR govern-ment, too, would give free vaccines,

T H E R E L I A N C E -A M A Z O N FAC E - O F F PG 8

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B I H A R : W I N D S O F A N T I - I N C U M B E N CY

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H Y D E R A BA D : A C I T Y G O E S U N D E R

PG 16UPFRONT

By Amarnath K. Menon

An Election Placebo

ANI

JABS FOR FREE Union FM Nirmala Sitharaman releases the BJP manifesto for the Bihar polls in Patna, Oct. 22

C OV I D VAC C I N E

Upfront 1-2-Vaccine-Nov9.indd 5 10/28/2020 11:24:42 PM

6 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020

but only to the poor and to doctors and frontline health workers.

Given the widespread public fear about the Covid pandemic, the vac-cine seems to have become the state largesse of choice during this festival/ poll season, unmindful of the nuances of immunisation programmes—many in the past have been compromised—and the humongous costs involved in a large-scale rollout. No surprises, then, that health experts, especially those working with vaccines, are sceptical about this pre-poll hoopla. “No one knows at what price they will finally be able to offer the Covid vaccine. The retail price is not based on cost plus profit. It is perceived as a business opportunity in this pandemic situation. If the companies want to create an arti-ficial scarcity, the price of the vaccine will shoot up. The government may not be able to put this under price control. Politicians could make ‘investments’, procure the vaccine and supply it to the people too, but it will create chaos,” cautions K.I. Varaprasad Reddy, chair-man, Shanta Sanofi, who has been in the vaccine manufacturing industry for over two decades.

There are other challenges too. “Vaccine administration is not as simple as supplying biriyani packets or cheap liquor (the most common voting-day ‘presents’). Before a vaccine is administered, the health status of the recipient has to be checked. If s/he has fever or a cold or an ailment of con-cern, the vaccine has to be withheld. A qualified doctor has to decide whether or not to give the vaccine,” explains Varaprasad Reddy.

The logistics of a large-scale immunisation drive are also daunt-ing. Vaccines have to be protected in a cold chain (i.e. the temperature has to be maintained in a recommended low range, from production through stor-age till administration). If the vaccine is a two-dose regimen, a record must be maintained of when the first one was administered and when the second dose is due; the follow-up second dose is cru-cial. “Also, if there are any side effects, who will attend to it is a question that looms large. It will cause much concern

and confusion,” explains Reddy. But for Dr Suresh Munuswamy,

head, health informatics and technol-ogy innovations at the Public Health Foundation of India, vaccinating every citizen is an option to seriously consider. “Free vaccination as a national or state-level programme would be the fastest route [to herd immunity], combined with mass door-to-door and multi-media campaigns and vaccination camps, hopefully backed by effective real-time digital monitoring platforms to track progress and coverage.” Experts believe that at least 70 per cent of the population must be vaccinated to get herd immunity via this route.

Manufacturers who have candidate Covid vaccines are optimistic about completing trials and rolling out the product in 2021, if need be by creat-ing additional manufacturing facilities or outsourcing the licensed product to cope with the demand. Which is per-haps another reason why the states are blithely making promises even though they are uncertain about the price. Serum Institute CEO Adar Poonawalla has put the production cost at Rs 225.

The usual supply chain costs are 10-15 per cent of overall costs; for cold

chains, possibly double. A mass Covid immunisation programme will require that the vaccine be transported in cold chain to remote corners of the country, which has daunting cost and logisti-cal implications. Add to this the cost of door-to-door outreach, multimedia campaigns and a digital monitoring platform, and the price could be 2x production cost by the time the vaccine is actually delivered to its recipient. At an end-user total cost of Rs 450 per person, the cost of immunising India’s population of over 1.3 billion will be Rs 58,500 crore-plus.

However, the cost of a country-wide vaccination is not a single one-time payment event but an

exercise spread over months, possibly years. Then there is the small matter of our not-so-stellar record with immuni-sation programmes. Even now, an estimated 38 per cent of children fail to receive all basic vaccines in the first year of life, says a 2016 study in the medical journal BMJ.

Sitharaman’s statement drew atten-tion for its timing, but the promise itself was possibly inspired by what other countries have announced—a free vac-cine as part of the Covid-management plan. Opposition politicians in India have been quick to raise questions, saying the promise of a vaccine in an election manifesto “shows the BJP’s desperation”, and are asking if “non-BJP states will get the free Covid vaccine” as well. The Election Commission’s stud-ied silence on the matter has also raised more than a few eyebrows.

“They may have reasons I am not aware of,” says former chief election commissioner (CEC) S.Y. Quraishi, add-ing that an announcement in the party poll manifesto cannot be faulted legally. But it does have an ethical dimension, he points out, as the model code of con-duct is in play. “What is part of a politi-cal party’s manifesto during an election cannot be construed as a violation of electoral regulations,” emphasises another ex-CEC, T.S. Krishnamurthy. The intent of the announcement is obvi-ous, but whether voters will bite the bait is anybody’s guess. n

UPFRONT

A VACCINE FOR ALL?Estimated cost of the free inoculations

BIHAR (*104 MN)`4,680 cr.

KARNATAKA (61 MN)`2,745 cr.

TAMIL NADU (72 MN)`3,240 cr.

ASSAM (31 MN)`1,395 cr.

*Population; @ Rs 450 per person

Graphic by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

Upfront 1-2-Vaccine-Nov9.indd 6 10/28/2020 11:25:04 PM

8 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020

Responding to a plea from global e-tail giant Amazon, the Singapore International Arbitration Centre (SIAC)

recently threw a spanner in the works of one of the biggest deals in the Indian retail space in recent times. Through an interim order, the SIAC asked the Future Group to put on hold the sale of its retail business to Reliance Retail pending a final order on Amazon’s plea. With this, battle lines have been drawn between Amazon, the world’s largest online retailer, and Reliance Retail, promoted by India’s largest private firm, Reliance Industries, which made a high-decibel entry into the e-com-merce segment in May and launched its JioMart app in July this year.

Last year, in a Rs 2,000 crore deal, Amazon had bought a 49 per cent stake in Future Coupons, the promoter entity of Future Retail. According to reports, Amazon has claimed that this deal included a ‘call option’ clause, which gave it the right to acquire all or part of Future Coupons’ shareholding in Future Retail, and that this clause

could be exercised at any time between the third and tenth year after the deal was signed. It also claimed that the deal required the Future Group to inform Amazon before entering into a sale agreement with a third party, and that its indirect stake in Future Retail entitled Amazon to prior consultation before the deal between Future Retail and Reliance was concluded. On those grounds, Amazon has argued that the Rs 24,713 crore deal between Future Group and Reliance Retail violated its contractual rights.

In a statement to the stock exchang-es on October 26, Future Retail said that its agreements with Reliance Retail are governed by Indian law and the

provisions of Indian Arbitration Act, and that ‘this matter raises several fun-damental jurisdictional issues which go to the root of the matter. Accordingly, this order will have to be tested under the provisions of Indian Arbitration Act in an appropriate forum’. On October 25, Reliance Retail said it had entered into the deal with Future Retail ‘under proper legal advice’ and that ‘the rights and obligations are fully enforce-able under Indian law’, adding that it intended to complete the deal without any delay. An Amazon spokesperson said the company remained “commit-ted to an expeditious conclusion of the arbitration process”.

Reports suggest the SIAC has asked Amazon to submit a proposal within a week outlining its plans for Future Retail in case the final ruling is in its favour. If Amazon wins the case and decides to exercise its call option, it will have to buy the promoters’ stake in Future Retail and also trigger an open offer to buy shares from minority share-holders. However, everything depends on how the SIAC’s order will be imple-mented in India—enforcing it requires it to be first ratified by an Indian court.

Future Retail’s deal with Reliance Retail creates a Rs 1.2 lakh crore busi-ness, four times bigger than its nearest rival, Avenue Supermarts, which runs the popular DMart stores. The deal helps Reliance Retail expand its foot-print, offers it a good legacy franchise and helps it build competitive strength, especially in the apparel and grocery segments, in which it has yet to estab-lish a strong presence. Grocery alone comprises close to 60 per cent of the total $737 billion (Rs 54 lakh crore) Indian retail segment, so having a large slice of the grocery pie will be critical for retail businesses. The other area in which Reliance Retail is looking to grow its presence with this deal is the fashion and lifestyle business, which comprises 20 per cent of its stores and 8 per cent of its annual sales. Future Lifestyle manages about 400 stores in lifestlye retail chains such as Central and Brand Factory and nearly three dozen apparel brands such as Lee Cooper and Indigo Nation. n

UPFRONT

By M.G. Arun

O N L I N E R E TA I L

Deal or No Deal?

THE FUTURE GROUP HAS BEEN ASKED TO PUT ITS

Rs 24,713 CRORE DEAL WITH RELIANCE RETAIL ON HOLD

BONE OF CONTENTION

A Big Bazaar store at Great India Place

Mall, Noida

CHANDRADEEP KUMAR

Upfront-3-Reliance-Amazon-Nov9.indd 8 10/28/2020 9:41:49 PM

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10 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 1 1

Laluji ke raj mein gareeb seena taan ke babusahab ke saamne baithta tha (In Lalu Yadav’s time, the poor could hold their

own with the [mighty] babusahabs).” This remark by RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) leader Tejashwi Yadav, while cam-paigning in Rohtas district on October 26, had the crowd erupting in loud cheers. In pressing their self-respect but-ton, Tejashwi was also trying to subvert the Nitish Kumar campaign pitch—15 years (of Nitish) versus 15 years (under Lalu), which has been a recurring leit-motif of the JD(U) campaign. If Nitish was insisting that there was corruption and misrule under Lalu, a resurgent Tejashwi, buoyed by the big turnouts at his rallies and an apparent late ground-swell of support, was turning the same pitch on its head, to tell voters that the poor had respect under Lalu.

This was probably the first time Tejashwi had made a direct reference to ‘Lalu raj’ during the current election campaign. In oblique references earlier, he had apologised for past mistakes, and made a plea to look ahead, to make another start. As the RJD-led grand alliance’s chief ministerial candidate, he had not only apologised to the people for past mistakes, but also sought to steer the RJD away from the party’s old set-pieces of social justice and empow-erment of backward castes. That agen-da was still on track, in Rohtas, when he declared: “Sabko saath leke chalna hai (We have to take everyone along).” An obvious calculation here is to pre-empt possible counter-polarisation, which could work to the advantage of the JD(U)-BJP.

But the NDA quickly seized the opportunity to target him. From AIIMS

Patna, where he is undergoing treat-ment for Covid, Bihar deputy chief min-ister and BJP veteran Sushil K. Modi issued a video statement that Tejashwi was anti-upper castes. “The RJD had even protested against the 10 per cent quota (in jobs and educational institu-tions) for the poor among upper castes (general category),” he said. The RJD later clarified that ‘babusahab’ was Tejashwi’s reference to government offi-cials, but the BJP will certainly hope that the upper caste voter of Bihar took note of Sushil Modi’s sickbed exhorta-tion to take grave offence.

Troubled legacy

While the RJD hopes to ride a per-ceived anti-incumbency wave against the Nitish Kumar government, Tejashwi is acutely aware of his own dubious legacy—the 15 years under

Lalu-Rabri and the widely reported excesses of those years that he has been trying to live down. “Tejashwi Yadav has been walking the tightrope. While we have a committed vote bank, there’s also this opportunity to attract new voters. But it’s easier said than done,” says a senior RJD leader.

The RJD will still bank on the sup-port of Muslims and OBC Yadavs, who make up 17 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively, of the Bihar electorate. The challenge is to turn the anti-Nitish voter in other sections of society. An opinion poll conducted by Lokniti-CSDS, between October 10 and 17, indicates a split in the anti-incumbency vote. While 52 per cent of respon-dents who were against the Nitish government said they would support the grand alliance, a high 40 per cent were non-committal. Observers india today spoke to read this as disenchant-ment with Nitish but also a reluctance to go with Tejashwi. While 38 per cent of respondents were in favour of another term for Nitish and 43 per cent against it, a significant 19 per cent were fence-sitters, according to the survey.

The rise of TejashwiTejashwi sensed early on in the cam-paign that fatigue had set in among voters over issues that did not concern their daily lives. “Let’s face it, social justice, secularism and empowerment of the backwards no longer get [the same] traction [as before], all the more because our opponents are highly skilled in caste politics,” says an RJD strategist. “We realised that real issues, such as livelihood, would find greater resonance among people dissatisfied with the Nitish government.”

The RJD is upbeat about the surg-ing crowds at Tejashwi’s rallies, which analysts attribute to his promise of cre-ating 1 million government jobs if he is voted to power. RJD leaders are hopeful that Tejashwi’s job pitch will be an effec-tive counter to Nitish’s ‘development’ narrative. They even claim that the JD(U)’s vision document, ‘Saat Nischay II’, has failed to appeal to the people.

However, a top state BJP leader dis-misses all this talk of Tejashwi’s rising

stock, saying: “The RJD’s Muslim-Yadav base comprises about a third of Bihar’s population. Where else will this crowd be [but in RJD rallies]? RJD supporters are the most boister-ous, which explains the loud cheers at Tejashwi’s rallies. You will find thinner attendance at NDA rallies because our supporters watch them on their mobile phones, from their homes. But they will certainly go out and vote [for us].” He, however, concedes that the NDA runs the risk of reverses in some seats where BJP rebels are in the fray as candidates of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which has exited the alliance. “It’s because of them (LJP) that this election is no lon-ger the piece of cake it had seemed.”

The Chirag Paswan factorThe grand alliance is confident it will gain if Chirag Paswan’s LJP takes a slice off the NDA vote. In the 2019 Lok

Sabha election, the BJP, JD(U) and LJP had together won 39 of the 40 seats in Bihar. Now, with Chirag deciding to go it alone and launching a strident attack against Nitish, the JD(U) faces the prospect of losing the 5 per cent LJP vote. “But this will not be without hid-den benefits,” says a top JD(U) leader. “The good thing is that LJP votes are not going to the grand alliance. Besides, Chirag may also end up splitting some of the anti-incumbency vote, which indirectly benefits us.”

Nevertheless, the JD(U) will be hit in close contests. A fair number of BJP rebels, including Rajendra Singh (Dinara seat), Rameshwar Chaurasia (Sasaram) and Dr Usha Vidyarthi (Paliganj), have joined the LJP and there is a strong possibility that they

will eat into JD(U) votes. In these seats, the RJD may gain from the divi-sion of NDA votes.

JD(U) strategyAfter coming to power in November 2005, Nitish has been credited with gradually putting Bihar, which was at the bottom on most economic indi-cators, on the path of above-average growth and better law and order. Roads and power supply have also significantly improved during his rule. However, unemployment remains a pressing problem—now made worse by the return of migrant workers during the Covid lockdown. Nitish has also had to face flak for his government’s appar-ent delay in facilitating the return of migrants. With the pandemic aggra-vating economic distress, his problems have only increased.

In its defence, the Nitish govern-ment says it has spent about Rs 10,000 crore on battling the Covid crisis and providing aid to migrants. This includes the average Rs 5,300 expense on each migrant during their stay at quarantine centres and the over 10 million Covid tests conducted so far. Nitish projects himself as a leader whose social wel-fare model unified Bihar as against the RJD’s “divisive politics”.

JD(U) leaders are confident that regardless of anti-incumbency and Tejashwi’s increasing following, the ruling party will romp home in this election, aided also by Bihar’s caste permutations and the somewhat polar-ised atmosphere in the state. While the BJP banks on upper-caste Bhumihars and a section of non-Yadav OBCs, the JD(U) has the backing of Mahadalits and EBCs (Extremely Backward Castes), who together make up over 40 per cent of the population. The JD(U) is also counting on women voters, who are supposed to be favourably disposed to Nitish’s governance priorities.

The RJD’s Muslim-Yadav vote bank may not be enough for Tejashwi to beat the NDA caste arithmetic. He will need to rely heavily on his personal charisma and hope that his growing connect at poll rallies, particularly with the youth, translates into votes. n

UPFRONT

By Amitabh Srivastava

AN AIR OF ANTI-INCUMBENCYTHE RJD CLAIMS THE

SURGING CROWDS AT TEJASHWI’S

RALLIES REFLECT THE ANTI-NITISH KUMAR MOOD ON

THE GROUND

CROWD-PULLER RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav

campaigns in Nalanda

ANI

ASSEMBLY POLL

Upfront-4-5-Bihar-Nov9.indd All Pages 10/28/2020 9:43:25 PM

10 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 1 1

Laluji ke raj mein gareeb seena taan ke babusahab ke saamne baithta tha (In Lalu Yadav’s time, the poor could hold their

own with the [mighty] babusahabs).” This remark by RJD (Rashtriya Janata Dal) leader Tejashwi Yadav, while cam-paigning in Rohtas district on October 26, had the crowd erupting in loud cheers. In pressing their self-respect but-ton, Tejashwi was also trying to subvert the Nitish Kumar campaign pitch—15 years (of Nitish) versus 15 years (under Lalu), which has been a recurring leit-motif of the JD(U) campaign. If Nitish was insisting that there was corruption and misrule under Lalu, a resurgent Tejashwi, buoyed by the big turnouts at his rallies and an apparent late ground-swell of support, was turning the same pitch on its head, to tell voters that the poor had respect under Lalu.

This was probably the first time Tejashwi had made a direct reference to ‘Lalu raj’ during the current election campaign. In oblique references earlier, he had apologised for past mistakes, and made a plea to look ahead, to make another start. As the RJD-led grand alliance’s chief ministerial candidate, he had not only apologised to the people for past mistakes, but also sought to steer the RJD away from the party’s old set-pieces of social justice and empow-erment of backward castes. That agen-da was still on track, in Rohtas, when he declared: “Sabko saath leke chalna hai (We have to take everyone along).” An obvious calculation here is to pre-empt possible counter-polarisation, which could work to the advantage of the JD(U)-BJP.

But the NDA quickly seized the opportunity to target him. From AIIMS

Patna, where he is undergoing treat-ment for Covid, Bihar deputy chief min-ister and BJP veteran Sushil K. Modi issued a video statement that Tejashwi was anti-upper castes. “The RJD had even protested against the 10 per cent quota (in jobs and educational institu-tions) for the poor among upper castes (general category),” he said. The RJD later clarified that ‘babusahab’ was Tejashwi’s reference to government offi-cials, but the BJP will certainly hope that the upper caste voter of Bihar took note of Sushil Modi’s sickbed exhorta-tion to take grave offence.

Troubled legacy

While the RJD hopes to ride a per-ceived anti-incumbency wave against the Nitish Kumar government, Tejashwi is acutely aware of his own dubious legacy—the 15 years under

Lalu-Rabri and the widely reported excesses of those years that he has been trying to live down. “Tejashwi Yadav has been walking the tightrope. While we have a committed vote bank, there’s also this opportunity to attract new voters. But it’s easier said than done,” says a senior RJD leader.

The RJD will still bank on the sup-port of Muslims and OBC Yadavs, who make up 17 per cent and 14 per cent, respectively, of the Bihar electorate. The challenge is to turn the anti-Nitish voter in other sections of society. An opinion poll conducted by Lokniti-CSDS, between October 10 and 17, indicates a split in the anti-incumbency vote. While 52 per cent of respon-dents who were against the Nitish government said they would support the grand alliance, a high 40 per cent were non-committal. Observers india today spoke to read this as disenchant-ment with Nitish but also a reluctance to go with Tejashwi. While 38 per cent of respondents were in favour of another term for Nitish and 43 per cent against it, a significant 19 per cent were fence-sitters, according to the survey.

The rise of TejashwiTejashwi sensed early on in the cam-paign that fatigue had set in among voters over issues that did not concern their daily lives. “Let’s face it, social justice, secularism and empowerment of the backwards no longer get [the same] traction [as before], all the more because our opponents are highly skilled in caste politics,” says an RJD strategist. “We realised that real issues, such as livelihood, would find greater resonance among people dissatisfied with the Nitish government.”

The RJD is upbeat about the surg-ing crowds at Tejashwi’s rallies, which analysts attribute to his promise of cre-ating 1 million government jobs if he is voted to power. RJD leaders are hopeful that Tejashwi’s job pitch will be an effec-tive counter to Nitish’s ‘development’ narrative. They even claim that the JD(U)’s vision document, ‘Saat Nischay II’, has failed to appeal to the people.

However, a top state BJP leader dis-misses all this talk of Tejashwi’s rising

stock, saying: “The RJD’s Muslim-Yadav base comprises about a third of Bihar’s population. Where else will this crowd be [but in RJD rallies]? RJD supporters are the most boister-ous, which explains the loud cheers at Tejashwi’s rallies. You will find thinner attendance at NDA rallies because our supporters watch them on their mobile phones, from their homes. But they will certainly go out and vote [for us].” He, however, concedes that the NDA runs the risk of reverses in some seats where BJP rebels are in the fray as candidates of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), which has exited the alliance. “It’s because of them (LJP) that this election is no lon-ger the piece of cake it had seemed.”

The Chirag Paswan factorThe grand alliance is confident it will gain if Chirag Paswan’s LJP takes a slice off the NDA vote. In the 2019 Lok

Sabha election, the BJP, JD(U) and LJP had together won 39 of the 40 seats in Bihar. Now, with Chirag deciding to go it alone and launching a strident attack against Nitish, the JD(U) faces the prospect of losing the 5 per cent LJP vote. “But this will not be without hid-den benefits,” says a top JD(U) leader. “The good thing is that LJP votes are not going to the grand alliance. Besides, Chirag may also end up splitting some of the anti-incumbency vote, which indirectly benefits us.”

Nevertheless, the JD(U) will be hit in close contests. A fair number of BJP rebels, including Rajendra Singh (Dinara seat), Rameshwar Chaurasia (Sasaram) and Dr Usha Vidyarthi (Paliganj), have joined the LJP and there is a strong possibility that they

will eat into JD(U) votes. In these seats, the RJD may gain from the divi-sion of NDA votes.

JD(U) strategyAfter coming to power in November 2005, Nitish has been credited with gradually putting Bihar, which was at the bottom on most economic indi-cators, on the path of above-average growth and better law and order. Roads and power supply have also significantly improved during his rule. However, unemployment remains a pressing problem—now made worse by the return of migrant workers during the Covid lockdown. Nitish has also had to face flak for his government’s appar-ent delay in facilitating the return of migrants. With the pandemic aggra-vating economic distress, his problems have only increased.

In its defence, the Nitish govern-ment says it has spent about Rs 10,000 crore on battling the Covid crisis and providing aid to migrants. This includes the average Rs 5,300 expense on each migrant during their stay at quarantine centres and the over 10 million Covid tests conducted so far. Nitish projects himself as a leader whose social wel-fare model unified Bihar as against the RJD’s “divisive politics”.

JD(U) leaders are confident that regardless of anti-incumbency and Tejashwi’s increasing following, the ruling party will romp home in this election, aided also by Bihar’s caste permutations and the somewhat polar-ised atmosphere in the state. While the BJP banks on upper-caste Bhumihars and a section of non-Yadav OBCs, the JD(U) has the backing of Mahadalits and EBCs (Extremely Backward Castes), who together make up over 40 per cent of the population. The JD(U) is also counting on women voters, who are supposed to be favourably disposed to Nitish’s governance priorities.

The RJD’s Muslim-Yadav vote bank may not be enough for Tejashwi to beat the NDA caste arithmetic. He will need to rely heavily on his personal charisma and hope that his growing connect at poll rallies, particularly with the youth, translates into votes. n

UPFRONT

By Amitabh Srivastava

AN AIR OF ANTI-INCUMBENCYTHE RJD CLAIMS THE

SURGING CROWDS AT TEJASHWI’S

RALLIES REFLECT THE ANTI-NITISH KUMAR MOOD ON

THE GROUND

CROWD-PULLER RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav

campaigns in Nalanda

ANI

ASSEMBLY POLL

Upfront-4-5-Bihar-Nov9.indd All Pages 10/28/2020 9:43:25 PM

The onset of winter marks several familiar events. For Indians across the country, this is the beginning of the

festival season, with Dussehra and Diwali around the corner. For farm-ers, it marks the end of the kharif harvest and preparations for planting of the rabi crop. And for those in the NCR (national capital region), it has come to mark the beginning of yet another round of lamentation over air pollution, with many arguments over the relative contributions of transport, power plants, industries and stubble burning in neighbouring states in turning Delhi into a gas chamber.

Reports of the NCR’s terrible AQI (air quality index) numbers have already begun making the news. On October 26, the CPCB’s (Central Pollution Control Board’s) AQI for Delhi was 353. Faridabad came in at 323, Ghaziabad at 365, Greater Noida at 384 and Gurugram at 258. (The

index goes up to 400; lower numbers mean cleaner air.) Related stats, such as the ventilation index—how quickly pollutants are dispersed based on average wind speed—are worrying too, with CPCB officials saying the index this September and October was 1,334 sq. m per second, down from 1,850 sq. m per second in the same period last year. Numbers like these suggest that the national capital is in for yet another choking winter.

This is not to say that nothing is being done. Over 2016 and 2017, in response to this annual crisis, the Supreme Court-mandated EPCA, the Environment Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority, developed a plan to automatically impose restric-tions based on air quality data. This plan, known as GRAP (the graded response action plan), was triggered on October 15 in the NCR; some of the restrictions include bans on diesel generators and waste burning until

further notice. Nonetheless, GRAP is explicitly an emergency measure, not a long-term solution. Sachchida Nand Tripathi, adjunct professor at the Centre of Excellence for Research on Clean Air at IIT Delhi, points out that a permanent solution requires cred-ible, sustained action by the various state governments and departments responsible. “It is unfortunate that most states pass the buck,” he says.

Over the past two years, other measures have also been attempted. For instance, to cut down on vehicle emissions, trucks not destined for the NCR have been banned from entering the capital—they are now required to use the eastern and western peripher-al expressways for their journeys past Delhi. Oil refineries in the region have been required to implement Bharat Stage VI fuel standards, and the Delhi government has increased the number of CNG buses from 4,352 to 6,248. But much remains to be done.

By Anilesh S. Mahajan

A I R P O L L U T I O N

THE SEASON OF SMOKE SIGNALS

QUICK AND DIRTY Straw stubble being

burned in a field near Jandiala Guru on the

outskirts of Amritsar

For instance, a major source of air pollution is thermal power plants, which emit massive quantities of sul-phur dioxide (SO2), one of the pollut-ants measured in the CPCB’s AQI. On this count, in 2015, the ministry of envi-ronment, forests and climate change instituted new rules requiring thermal power plants to instal flue gas desul-phurisation (FGD) systems to cut down SO2 emissions by 2022. Many of India’s 440-odd thermal power plants are likely to miss this deadline. The delay is at least partly due to the insistence of the Union power ministry that FGD systems must be sourced domestically. “The new instructions from the power ministry require power plants to move from Chinese equipment to domes-tically manufactured [kits],” says Ashok Khurana, director general of the Association of Power Producers (APP), an apex industry body. “This will take some time.” Earlier this year, the APP filed a plea in the Supreme Court ask-ing for a two-year extension; on June 19, this was rejected. One of the thermal power plants yet to install FGD systems is the NTPC’s (national thermal power corporation’s) plant in Dadri, NCR.

Complicating matters is the fact that state boundaries are no bar for air pollutants, and that

the NCR sits adjacent to three major agricultural states—Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. The run-up to win-ter is when farmers clear their fields of stubble for rabi sowing, and the most common method they use to do so is to set the stubble on fire. This produces vast quantities of particle-heavy smoke, which, when combined with the steadi-ly cooling winter air and the fact that the NCR, geographically speaking, sits

in a trough, results in a thick blanket of smog settling over Delhi. This is a well-known problem, and many solutions have been proposed, such as incentivis-ing farmers to dig out the stubble using machines and to use it to produce bio-CNG, ethanol or cardboard.

That these proposals are not hav-ing the desired effect is visible in a single data point—this year, between September 21 and October 18, the Punjab Remote Sensing Centre at Punjab Agricultural University in Ludhiana, recorded more than 5,700 farm fires. This is an alarming reversal of the recent trend—the numbers in the same period in 2017, 2018 and 2019 were 3,822, 1,533 and 1,695, respec-tively. Experts highlight a number of

causes. One is that despite state govern-ments’ efforts to improve access to stub-ble-clearing machines—increasing the number of hiring centres and waiving rental charges for small farmers—it still costs about Rs 3,000 per acre to clear a field using such machines (this includes the cost of diesel and hiring charges for a tractor and a machine operator). Second is the fact that until last year, a Supreme Court ruling required state governments to purchase the cleared stubble at Rs 100 per quintal. That no longer applies, so farmers have no incentive to use machines and collect stubble. Third is the argument that some farmers, still angry about the new farm laws rammed through Parliament by the Union government, may be burning their stubble in protest—as if to say that if the government chooses to ignore their demands, why should farmers not do the same?

On October 26, solicitor general Tushar Mehta informed the Supreme Court that the Centre would be bring-ing in a new law via an ordinance in the first week of November to curb stubble burning. However, many argue that the solution is not new laws but eco-nomic models that incentivise farmers to harvest the stubble. In the mean-time, CPCB officials are left grasping at straws to offer hope. Member secretary Prashant Gargava recently told the press that there was a chance that the stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana would not coincide with meteorological conditions and Dussehra/ Diwali cel-ebrations (read: firecracker smoke) to create a perfect storm of pollution. Last year, something similar had taken place on November 3, when PM2.5 concen-trations soared to 23 times the World Health Organization’s safe limit. n

UPFRONT

5,700 FARM FIRES IN PUNJAB

BETWEEN SEP 21 AND OCT 18 (UP 236% FROM 1,695 IN THE

SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR)

`3,000 PER ACRE

COST OF USING MACHINE SUBSTITUTE TO DISPOSE

OF STUBBLE

~300 THERMAL POWER PLANTS OF THE 441 IN INDIA ARE YET TO INSTAL RECOMMENDED FGD

SYSTEMS TO CUT SO2 EMISSION

PR

AB

HJO

T GILL

Upfront-6-7-Pollution-Nov9.indd All Pages 10/28/2020 9:44:35 PM

The onset of winter marks several familiar events. For Indians across the country, this is the beginning of the

festival season, with Dussehra and Diwali around the corner. For farm-ers, it marks the end of the kharif harvest and preparations for planting of the rabi crop. And for those in the NCR (national capital region), it has come to mark the beginning of yet another round of lamentation over air pollution, with many arguments over the relative contributions of transport, power plants, industries and stubble burning in neighbouring states in turning Delhi into a gas chamber.

Reports of the NCR’s terrible AQI (air quality index) numbers have already begun making the news. On October 26, the CPCB’s (Central Pollution Control Board’s) AQI for Delhi was 353. Faridabad came in at 323, Ghaziabad at 365, Greater Noida at 384 and Gurugram at 258. (The

index goes up to 400; lower numbers mean cleaner air.) Related stats, such as the ventilation index—how quickly pollutants are dispersed based on average wind speed—are worrying too, with CPCB officials saying the index this September and October was 1,334 sq. m per second, down from 1,850 sq. m per second in the same period last year. Numbers like these suggest that the national capital is in for yet another choking winter.

This is not to say that nothing is being done. Over 2016 and 2017, in response to this annual crisis, the Supreme Court-mandated EPCA, the Environment Pollution (Prevention and Control) Authority, developed a plan to automatically impose restric-tions based on air quality data. This plan, known as GRAP (the graded response action plan), was triggered on October 15 in the NCR; some of the restrictions include bans on diesel generators and waste burning until

further notice. Nonetheless, GRAP is explicitly an emergency measure, not a long-term solution. Sachchida Nand Tripathi, adjunct professor at the Centre of Excellence for Research on Clean Air at IIT Delhi, points out that a permanent solution requires cred-ible, sustained action by the various state governments and departments responsible. “It is unfortunate that most states pass the buck,” he says.

Over the past two years, other measures have also been attempted. For instance, to cut down on vehicle emissions, trucks not destined for the NCR have been banned from entering the capital—they are now required to use the eastern and western peripher-al expressways for their journeys past Delhi. Oil refineries in the region have been required to implement Bharat Stage VI fuel standards, and the Delhi government has increased the number of CNG buses from 4,352 to 6,248. But much remains to be done.

By Anilesh S. Mahajan

A I R P O L L U T I O N

THE SEASON OF SMOKE SIGNALS

QUICK AND DIRTY Straw stubble being

burned in a field near Jandiala Guru on the

outskirts of Amritsar

For instance, a major source of air pollution is thermal power plants, which emit massive quantities of sul-phur dioxide (SO2), one of the pollut-ants measured in the CPCB’s AQI. On this count, in 2015, the ministry of envi-ronment, forests and climate change instituted new rules requiring thermal power plants to instal flue gas desul-phurisation (FGD) systems to cut down SO2 emissions by 2022. Many of India’s 440-odd thermal power plants are likely to miss this deadline. The delay is at least partly due to the insistence of the Union power ministry that FGD systems must be sourced domestically. “The new instructions from the power ministry require power plants to move from Chinese equipment to domes-tically manufactured [kits],” says Ashok Khurana, director general of the Association of Power Producers (APP), an apex industry body. “This will take some time.” Earlier this year, the APP filed a plea in the Supreme Court ask-ing for a two-year extension; on June 19, this was rejected. One of the thermal power plants yet to install FGD systems is the NTPC’s (national thermal power corporation’s) plant in Dadri, NCR.

Complicating matters is the fact that state boundaries are no bar for air pollutants, and that

the NCR sits adjacent to three major agricultural states—Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. The run-up to win-ter is when farmers clear their fields of stubble for rabi sowing, and the most common method they use to do so is to set the stubble on fire. This produces vast quantities of particle-heavy smoke, which, when combined with the steadi-ly cooling winter air and the fact that the NCR, geographically speaking, sits

in a trough, results in a thick blanket of smog settling over Delhi. This is a well-known problem, and many solutions have been proposed, such as incentivis-ing farmers to dig out the stubble using machines and to use it to produce bio-CNG, ethanol or cardboard.

That these proposals are not hav-ing the desired effect is visible in a single data point—this year, between September 21 and October 18, the Punjab Remote Sensing Centre at Punjab Agricultural University in Ludhiana, recorded more than 5,700 farm fires. This is an alarming reversal of the recent trend—the numbers in the same period in 2017, 2018 and 2019 were 3,822, 1,533 and 1,695, respec-tively. Experts highlight a number of

causes. One is that despite state govern-ments’ efforts to improve access to stub-ble-clearing machines—increasing the number of hiring centres and waiving rental charges for small farmers—it still costs about Rs 3,000 per acre to clear a field using such machines (this includes the cost of diesel and hiring charges for a tractor and a machine operator). Second is the fact that until last year, a Supreme Court ruling required state governments to purchase the cleared stubble at Rs 100 per quintal. That no longer applies, so farmers have no incentive to use machines and collect stubble. Third is the argument that some farmers, still angry about the new farm laws rammed through Parliament by the Union government, may be burning their stubble in protest—as if to say that if the government chooses to ignore their demands, why should farmers not do the same?

On October 26, solicitor general Tushar Mehta informed the Supreme Court that the Centre would be bring-ing in a new law via an ordinance in the first week of November to curb stubble burning. However, many argue that the solution is not new laws but eco-nomic models that incentivise farmers to harvest the stubble. In the mean-time, CPCB officials are left grasping at straws to offer hope. Member secretary Prashant Gargava recently told the press that there was a chance that the stubble burning in Punjab and Haryana would not coincide with meteorological conditions and Dussehra/ Diwali cel-ebrations (read: firecracker smoke) to create a perfect storm of pollution. Last year, something similar had taken place on November 3, when PM2.5 concen-trations soared to 23 times the World Health Organization’s safe limit. n

UPFRONT

5,700 FARM FIRES IN PUNJAB

BETWEEN SEP 21 AND OCT 18 (UP 236% FROM 1,695 IN THE

SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR)

`3,000 PER ACRE

COST OF USING MACHINE SUBSTITUTE TO DISPOSE

OF STUBBLE

~300 THERMAL POWER PLANTS OF THE 441 IN INDIA ARE YET TO INSTAL RECOMMENDED FGD

SYSTEMS TO CUT SO2 EMISSION

PR

AB

HJO

T GILL

Upfront-6-7-Pollution-Nov9.indd All Pages 10/28/2020 9:44:35 PM

14 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020—Sandeep Unnithan with Rahul Noronha, Amitabh Srivastava, Romita Datta and Anilesh S. Mahajan

For once, it wasn’t the Mamata Banerjee-Jagdeep

Dhankhar rivalry that was in the news. The West Bengal governor came in for flak when he chose to share pictures of the frail, bed-ridden former chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee after he visited him at his house on Durga Ashtami, October 23. Left leaders were furious and called the pictures unethical. The guv sure seems to have a knack for rubbing people the wrong way.

LEFT UPPER CUT

Harish Rawat, the All India Congress Committee general

secretary in charge of Punjab, has been reaching out to party rebels in the state. He recently met a sulking Navjot Singh Sidhu on his birthday and cut a cake with him. The next day, he had a one-on-one lunch with MP and Congress rebel Pratap Singh Bajwa. As Uttarakhand chief minister, Rawat had survived the Vijay Bahuguna rebellion. Looks like his survival skills are now being put to use in Punjab.

MENDING FENCES

G L A S S H O U S E

Friendly No-show

P olitical circles in Madhya Pradesh were all primed for a clash between the Gandhi siblings, Rahul and Priyanka, and Jyotiraditya Scindia during the state bypoll campaign. Scindia quit the Congress in March, with 22

other rebels in tow, bringing down the Kamal Nath government in the state. As it turns out, the Gandhis won’t be touring the state. And Scindia, who hasn’t spared Kamal Nath or Digvijaya Singh in his campaign, hasn’t uttered a word

against Rahul or Priyanka. The Gandhis, too, have maintained radio sil ence. Meanwhile, another good friend, Sachin Pilot, will be campaigning for

the Congress in Gwalior, Shivpuri, Morena and Bhind on October 27 and 28. Political differences don’t come in the way of dynasts, it seems.

Shatrughan Sinha’s son Luv Sinha had a brief but unsuccessful attempt at

Bollywood stardom. Two forgettable films later, he is following in his father’s footsteps to plunge into the same second career—politics. Luv is the Congress candidate from Bankipur in Patna for this assembly election. The ‘Bihari Babu’ calls his son ‘Bihar Putra’ or son of the soil. Now only if the people of the constituency will see the light.

LUV STORY

Illus

trat

ion

by S

IDD

HA

NT

JUM

DE

ANI

India and the US have never been closer, militarily speaking, and that must count as one of the most remarkable features of bilateral ties

under US president Donald Trump. Regardless of the outcome of the November 3 US presidential elections, the bilateral trajectory of nearly two decades firmed up over the past four years with the inking of three significant foundational military agreements. The agreements have enhanced what the US terms as a ‘comprehensive global strate-gic partnership’ with India.

The third and final agreement, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Cooperation (BECA), was signed in New Delhi on October 27 during the ‘2+2’ ministe-rial dialogue between the foreign and defence ministers of both countries. BECA is the last of what the US terms as ‘foundational agreements’ it has signed with India. They ease cooperation between their armed forces, who carry out more exercises with each other than they do with any other country.

The upcoming Malabar 2020 joint naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea will feature, besides India and the US, Quad alliance partners Japan and Australia. The Quadrilateral

UPFRONT

By Sandeep Unnithan

I N D O - U S ‘ 2+2 ’ D I A L O G U E

COMRADESIN ARMS

TYING IN THE MILITARIESMilitary agreements that have

deepened Indo-US ties

General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA)Year: 2002Allows sharing of classified information between US gov-ernment and Indian state-owned firms

Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA)Year: 2016Allows armed forces to refuel and resupply at each others’ bases

Helicopter Operations from Ships other than Aircraft Carriers (HOSTAC)Year: 2017Facilitates cross-deck landings by Indian and US choppers on each others’ warships

Communications Compatibility and Security

Agreement (COMCASA)Year: 2018Allows transfer of encrypted military information and communications hardware

Industrial Security Agreement (ISA)Year: 2019Annexure to GSOMIA; allows sharing of confidential information between private military industries of both countries

Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Cooperation (BECA)Year: 2020Allows Indian armed forces to access US geospatial data, particularly the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s information bank

STRATEGIC PARTNERS (From left) Mark T. Esper,

Mike Pompeo, Rajnath Singh and S. Jaishankar at the ‘2+2’ Dialogue

Security Dialogue or Quad was recently revived by the four countries, and their first military exercise in 13 years is meant to address mutual concerns about a rising China in the Indo-Pacific, particularly its expansive ter-ritorial claims in the South China Sea. The US has repeatedly voiced concerns over China’s belligerence on the LAC (Line of Actual Control) in Ladakh and elsewhere in Asia. In a move not unconnected with events on land, it sent the USS Nimitz carrier strike group into the Bay of Bengal this July, a month after a clash between the Indian Army and China’s PLA in Galwan—the most violent between the two sides in 53 years.

The US is India’s second largest sup-plier of military hardware after Russia, with $20 billion (Rs 1.47 lakh crore) worth of arms deals completed or in the pipeline. India’s fleet of US C-17 transport aircraft and the P-8I mari-time patrol aircraft are the largest out-side the US. The upcoming $3 billion (Rs 22,000 crore) sale of 30 MQ9-B Sea Guardian armed drones could make India the largest operator of such unmanned craft outside the US.

The military agreements will enhance the effectiveness of the grow-ing number of US military platforms in Indian service. BECA allows the Indian military to access the US’s trove of geo-spatial data—maps, flight information and hydrographic data, and also the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s information archives. These could sharpen the combat edge of platforms like the Sea Guardians and enable the sharing of real-time classi-fied geospatial data. COMCASA, or the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement, signed in 2018, allows Indian military platforms to securely communicate with their US counterparts and obtain ‘common tacti-cal picture’ fused from various sensors.

The US terms foundational agree-ments as prerequisites for forging close military ties with partner nations. They will certainly create a new structure that promises to define Indo-US strate-gic ties over the next few decades. n

Upfront-8-9-India-US+Glasshouse-Nov9.indd All Pages 10/28/2020 9:45:40 PM

14 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020—Sandeep Unnithan with Rahul Noronha, Amitabh Srivastava, Romita Datta and Anilesh S. Mahajan

For once, it wasn’t the Mamata Banerjee-Jagdeep

Dhankhar rivalry that was in the news. The West Bengal governor came in for flak when he chose to share pictures of the frail, bed-ridden former chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee after he visited him at his house on Durga Ashtami, October 23. Left leaders were furious and called the pictures unethical. The guv sure seems to have a knack for rubbing people the wrong way.

LEFT UPPER CUT

Harish Rawat, the All India Congress Committee general

secretary in charge of Punjab, has been reaching out to party rebels in the state. He recently met a sulking Navjot Singh Sidhu on his birthday and cut a cake with him. The next day, he had a one-on-one lunch with MP and Congress rebel Pratap Singh Bajwa. As Uttarakhand chief minister, Rawat had survived the Vijay Bahuguna rebellion. Looks like his survival skills are now being put to use in Punjab.

MENDING FENCES

G L A S S H O U S E

Friendly No-show

P olitical circles in Madhya Pradesh were all primed for a clash between the Gandhi siblings, Rahul and Priyanka, and Jyotiraditya Scindia during the state bypoll campaign. Scindia quit the Congress in March, with 22

other rebels in tow, bringing down the Kamal Nath government in the state. As it turns out, the Gandhis won’t be touring the state. And Scindia, who hasn’t spared Kamal Nath or Digvijaya Singh in his campaign, hasn’t uttered a word

against Rahul or Priyanka. The Gandhis, too, have maintained radio sil ence. Meanwhile, another good friend, Sachin Pilot, will be campaigning for

the Congress in Gwalior, Shivpuri, Morena and Bhind on October 27 and 28. Political differences don’t come in the way of dynasts, it seems.

Shatrughan Sinha’s son Luv Sinha had a brief but unsuccessful attempt at

Bollywood stardom. Two forgettable films later, he is following in his father’s footsteps to plunge into the same second career—politics. Luv is the Congress candidate from Bankipur in Patna for this assembly election. The ‘Bihari Babu’ calls his son ‘Bihar Putra’ or son of the soil. Now only if the people of the constituency will see the light.

LUV STORY

Illus

trat

ion

by S

IDD

HA

NT

JUM

DE

ANI

India and the US have never been closer, militarily speaking, and that must count as one of the most remarkable features of bilateral ties

under US president Donald Trump. Regardless of the outcome of the November 3 US presidential elections, the bilateral trajectory of nearly two decades firmed up over the past four years with the inking of three significant foundational military agreements. The agreements have enhanced what the US terms as a ‘comprehensive global strate-gic partnership’ with India.

The third and final agreement, the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Cooperation (BECA), was signed in New Delhi on October 27 during the ‘2+2’ ministe-rial dialogue between the foreign and defence ministers of both countries. BECA is the last of what the US terms as ‘foundational agreements’ it has signed with India. They ease cooperation between their armed forces, who carry out more exercises with each other than they do with any other country.

The upcoming Malabar 2020 joint naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea will feature, besides India and the US, Quad alliance partners Japan and Australia. The Quadrilateral

UPFRONT

By Sandeep Unnithan

I N D O - U S ‘ 2+2 ’ D I A L O G U E

COMRADESIN ARMS

TYING IN THE MILITARIESMilitary agreements that have

deepened Indo-US ties

General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA)Year: 2002Allows sharing of classified information between US gov-ernment and Indian state-owned firms

Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA)Year: 2016Allows armed forces to refuel and resupply at each others’ bases

Helicopter Operations from Ships other than Aircraft Carriers (HOSTAC)Year: 2017Facilitates cross-deck landings by Indian and US choppers on each others’ warships

Communications Compatibility and Security

Agreement (COMCASA)Year: 2018Allows transfer of encrypted military information and communications hardware

Industrial Security Agreement (ISA)Year: 2019Annexure to GSOMIA; allows sharing of confidential information between private military industries of both countries

Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Cooperation (BECA)Year: 2020Allows Indian armed forces to access US geospatial data, particularly the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s information bank

STRATEGIC PARTNERS (From left) Mark T. Esper,

Mike Pompeo, Rajnath Singh and S. Jaishankar at the ‘2+2’ Dialogue

Security Dialogue or Quad was recently revived by the four countries, and their first military exercise in 13 years is meant to address mutual concerns about a rising China in the Indo-Pacific, particularly its expansive ter-ritorial claims in the South China Sea. The US has repeatedly voiced concerns over China’s belligerence on the LAC (Line of Actual Control) in Ladakh and elsewhere in Asia. In a move not unconnected with events on land, it sent the USS Nimitz carrier strike group into the Bay of Bengal this July, a month after a clash between the Indian Army and China’s PLA in Galwan—the most violent between the two sides in 53 years.

The US is India’s second largest sup-plier of military hardware after Russia, with $20 billion (Rs 1.47 lakh crore) worth of arms deals completed or in the pipeline. India’s fleet of US C-17 transport aircraft and the P-8I mari-time patrol aircraft are the largest out-side the US. The upcoming $3 billion (Rs 22,000 crore) sale of 30 MQ9-B Sea Guardian armed drones could make India the largest operator of such unmanned craft outside the US.

The military agreements will enhance the effectiveness of the grow-ing number of US military platforms in Indian service. BECA allows the Indian military to access the US’s trove of geo-spatial data—maps, flight information and hydrographic data, and also the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency’s information archives. These could sharpen the combat edge of platforms like the Sea Guardians and enable the sharing of real-time classi-fied geospatial data. COMCASA, or the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement, signed in 2018, allows Indian military platforms to securely communicate with their US counterparts and obtain ‘common tacti-cal picture’ fused from various sensors.

The US terms foundational agree-ments as prerequisites for forging close military ties with partner nations. They will certainly create a new structure that promises to define Indo-US strate-gic ties over the next few decades. n

Upfront-8-9-India-US+Glasshouse-Nov9.indd All Pages 10/28/2020 9:45:40 PM

16 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 17

APF

lash floods following pound-ing rain in mid-October (a rec ord 320 mm in 24 hours on October 14), and sluggish

relief work have dented Hyderabad’s image as a growing metropolis. Ten days on, 185 lakes and tanks in the city were still overflowing and several resi-dential areas remained waterlogged. The flood fury came at the end of an extended southwest monsoon season (the usual cutoff date is September 30) with water bodies already brimming. The floods took 50 lives.

A blame game is on but the truth is that the Lake Protection Committee, constituted by the Hyderabad Metro po-litan Development Authority in 2010, has come up short in fulfilling its man-date of demarcating boundaries and buffer zones of lakes; fencing them and indicating full tank level (FTL); and preventing/ reversing encroachments. Till a year ago, it had completed its task for only 224 of the city’s 3,132 water bodies. But the committee can only do so much—even where FTL boundar-ies were notified, authorities have con-sistently ignored encroachments on lake beds by unscrupulous developers conniving with politicians. A favou-rite strategy is to start a place of wor-ship (which, by that token, is deemed untouchable) and then encroach farther from there. On some lake beds, both privately developed gated communities as well as state-sponsored housing for

the poor have sprung up.Consequently, the surplus weirs and

courses that carry the excess water flow in a year of heavy rainfall are completely closed. Lakes have shrunk or disap-peared over the decades, altering the undulating terrain and the geology of Hyderabad’s urban agglomeration, as provided by the Survey of India’s topol-ogy sheets. “A flourishing racket first gives temporary rights for cultivation; then the politicians and administrators manage permissions for change in land use and sell what should be protected as lake bed as real estate,” rues water and climate change expert B.V. Subba Rao, formerly of the Engineering Staff College of India, Hyderabad. Apart from undermining the lake ecology and destroying the aquatic life, the loss of rainwater storage capacity has also increased instances of flash floods in downstream lakes, he says.

“There is no assessment done on loss of water storage capacity of the lakes nor are simulation studies carried out on likely inundation due to flash floods,” Subba Rao explains, adding that “all natural drainage and at least half the sewage of Hyderabad flows into these lakes through the year leaving less space for fresh water to join the lakes.” Again, this is because water infrastruc-ture is not planned as an integral com-ponent of the city master plan.

A 2017 remote sensing study by the International Crops Research Institute

for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Hyderabad, and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences noted that the total area of the city’s lakes had fallen sharply from 12,535 ha. in 2005 to 2,283 ha. by 2016. Housing colonies have mushroomed over the years on what used to be lake beds—a cata-strophic development to which gov-ernments over the years have turned a blind eye. Many of these colonies even have official water and power connec-tions, a sure sign that urban authorities have legitimised squatters’ rights.

Violations of zoning restrictions and unlawful construction are so rampant that they seem to have become the per-verse new normal in Hyderabad rather than planned urban development. On the superficially legitimate pretext of raising resources for a cash-strapped state, the government has been guilty of granting various concessions under several land and building regularisa-tion schemes. Mega housing ventures have come up in the catchment areas of many lakes, changing the topography and forcing the water to find its own level, including now in the cellars of many buildings.

“The state should adopt a

zero-tol erance policy to prevent encroachments on the Musi river, its catchment areas and the lakes and ponds in Hyderabad,” says Union min-ister of state for home, G. Kishen Reddy, the Lok Sabha MP from Secunderabad constituency that covers a large part of the city. “Encroachments have drowned Hyderabad, damaging the city’s brand image. That said, decisive action must

also be taken to support the people in distress.” Three years ago, the Musi Riverfront Development Corporation authorities identified nearly 6,350 cases of encroachment within the river boundary and buffer zone (50 metres from the designated water front), but no action has been taken so far against the violators.

Experts say an action plan to pre-vent floods must be a priority to avoid recurring devastation. For sensible urban planning, they say, the city’s hydrology map must be superimposed on the master plan so that it is integrat-ed with the natural drainage system as well as the network of storm water and sewage drains. The patte rns of rainwa-ter accumulation have been forgotten; it seems no lessons were learnt from the last deluge, when the city got 240 mm of rain on August 26, 2000.

The city’s sewerage network is also clogged and has become a health haz-ard in several parts of the Old City. This falls under the jurisdiction of the Hyderabad Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board, which works in tandem with the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC). Also, while most states, incl u ding

neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, have their own disaster response force, Telangana is yet to constitute one as rec-ommended by the 2009 national policy on disaster management. The state was ranked 19th on the Disaster Resilience Index—a central score card for the states and Union territories.

The flood havoc will likely derail the plans of the ruling TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) to conduct elections to the 150-seat GHMC in January, in the hope of making a clean sweep of all major elected bodies since the state came into being in 2014. However, Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao has announced a cash handout of Rs 10,000 each to about 400,000 flood-ravaged poor families and Rs 1 lakh each to families that have lost their houses. His son and urban development minister K.T. Rama Rao also visited several of the flood-affected areas.

Conscious of the limitations of the city authorities, Rama Rao points out that a cloudburst would flood any city in the world. “With two more months to go, there is every possibility of this year ending up in the record books as the one in which Hyderabad received its highest ever rainfall,” he points out.

The havoc in Hyderabad is possibly a wake-up call for all cities. “The grow-ing urban heat island phenomenon is responsible for cloudbursts, which bring heavy rains in short spells, as seen in Hyderabad. Such heavy bursts of rain are difficult for urban infrastructure to handle,” says Ancha Srinivasan, clim-ate change advisor for Southeast Asia, Asian Development Bank. “Clouds can hold seven per cent more moisture and, without wind, this results in a heavy, concentrated downpour. We will see more of this phenomenon in the coun-try’s urban areas. With more moisture, it becomes too heavy to be blown away.” What has been blown away, though, is Hyderabad’s reputation as ‘one of the most liveable cities in the world’. n

UPFRONT

By Amarnath K. Menon

H Y D E R A B A D F L O O D S

THE CITY GOES UNDER

THE FLOATERS Residents watch from the terrace in a flood-ed neighbourhood in Hyderabad, Oct. 14

320 mmAmount of rain Hyderabad got in 24 hours on Oct. 14

10,252 ha.Area the city’s lakes have

yielded to illegal construction between 2005 and 2016, says

an ICRISAT study

6,350Encroachment cases identified

on the embankments of the Musi river that flows

through Hyderabad

Upfront-10-11-Hyderabad-Nov9.indd All Pages 10/28/2020 10:30:20 PM

16 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 17

APF

lash floods following pound-ing rain in mid-October (a rec ord 320 mm in 24 hours on October 14), and sluggish

relief work have dented Hyderabad’s image as a growing metropolis. Ten days on, 185 lakes and tanks in the city were still overflowing and several resi-dential areas remained waterlogged. The flood fury came at the end of an extended southwest monsoon season (the usual cutoff date is September 30) with water bodies already brimming. The floods took 50 lives.

A blame game is on but the truth is that the Lake Protection Committee, constituted by the Hyderabad Metro po-litan Development Authority in 2010, has come up short in fulfilling its man-date of demarcating boundaries and buffer zones of lakes; fencing them and indicating full tank level (FTL); and preventing/ reversing encroachments. Till a year ago, it had completed its task for only 224 of the city’s 3,132 water bodies. But the committee can only do so much—even where FTL boundar-ies were notified, authorities have con-sistently ignored encroachments on lake beds by unscrupulous developers conniving with politicians. A favou-rite strategy is to start a place of wor-ship (which, by that token, is deemed untouchable) and then encroach farther from there. On some lake beds, both privately developed gated communities as well as state-sponsored housing for

the poor have sprung up.Consequently, the surplus weirs and

courses that carry the excess water flow in a year of heavy rainfall are completely closed. Lakes have shrunk or disap-peared over the decades, altering the undulating terrain and the geology of Hyderabad’s urban agglomeration, as provided by the Survey of India’s topol-ogy sheets. “A flourishing racket first gives temporary rights for cultivation; then the politicians and administrators manage permissions for change in land use and sell what should be protected as lake bed as real estate,” rues water and climate change expert B.V. Subba Rao, formerly of the Engineering Staff College of India, Hyderabad. Apart from undermining the lake ecology and destroying the aquatic life, the loss of rainwater storage capacity has also increased instances of flash floods in downstream lakes, he says.

“There is no assessment done on loss of water storage capacity of the lakes nor are simulation studies carried out on likely inundation due to flash floods,” Subba Rao explains, adding that “all natural drainage and at least half the sewage of Hyderabad flows into these lakes through the year leaving less space for fresh water to join the lakes.” Again, this is because water infrastruc-ture is not planned as an integral com-ponent of the city master plan.

A 2017 remote sensing study by the International Crops Research Institute

for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Hyderabad, and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences noted that the total area of the city’s lakes had fallen sharply from 12,535 ha. in 2005 to 2,283 ha. by 2016. Housing colonies have mushroomed over the years on what used to be lake beds—a cata-strophic development to which gov-ernments over the years have turned a blind eye. Many of these colonies even have official water and power connec-tions, a sure sign that urban authorities have legitimised squatters’ rights.

Violations of zoning restrictions and unlawful construction are so rampant that they seem to have become the per-verse new normal in Hyderabad rather than planned urban development. On the superficially legitimate pretext of raising resources for a cash-strapped state, the government has been guilty of granting various concessions under several land and building regularisa-tion schemes. Mega housing ventures have come up in the catchment areas of many lakes, changing the topography and forcing the water to find its own level, including now in the cellars of many buildings.

“The state should adopt a

zero-tol erance policy to prevent encroachments on the Musi river, its catchment areas and the lakes and ponds in Hyderabad,” says Union min-ister of state for home, G. Kishen Reddy, the Lok Sabha MP from Secunderabad constituency that covers a large part of the city. “Encroachments have drowned Hyderabad, damaging the city’s brand image. That said, decisive action must

also be taken to support the people in distress.” Three years ago, the Musi Riverfront Development Corporation authorities identified nearly 6,350 cases of encroachment within the river boundary and buffer zone (50 metres from the designated water front), but no action has been taken so far against the violators.

Experts say an action plan to pre-vent floods must be a priority to avoid recurring devastation. For sensible urban planning, they say, the city’s hydrology map must be superimposed on the master plan so that it is integrat-ed with the natural drainage system as well as the network of storm water and sewage drains. The patte rns of rainwa-ter accumulation have been forgotten; it seems no lessons were learnt from the last deluge, when the city got 240 mm of rain on August 26, 2000.

The city’s sewerage network is also clogged and has become a health haz-ard in several parts of the Old City. This falls under the jurisdiction of the Hyderabad Metropolitan Water Supply and Sewerage Board, which works in tandem with the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC). Also, while most states, incl u ding

neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, have their own disaster response force, Telangana is yet to constitute one as rec-ommended by the 2009 national policy on disaster management. The state was ranked 19th on the Disaster Resilience Index—a central score card for the states and Union territories.

The flood havoc will likely derail the plans of the ruling TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) to conduct elections to the 150-seat GHMC in January, in the hope of making a clean sweep of all major elected bodies since the state came into being in 2014. However, Chief Minister K. Chandrashekar Rao has announced a cash handout of Rs 10,000 each to about 400,000 flood-ravaged poor families and Rs 1 lakh each to families that have lost their houses. His son and urban development minister K.T. Rama Rao also visited several of the flood-affected areas.

Conscious of the limitations of the city authorities, Rama Rao points out that a cloudburst would flood any city in the world. “With two more months to go, there is every possibility of this year ending up in the record books as the one in which Hyderabad received its highest ever rainfall,” he points out.

The havoc in Hyderabad is possibly a wake-up call for all cities. “The grow-ing urban heat island phenomenon is responsible for cloudbursts, which bring heavy rains in short spells, as seen in Hyderabad. Such heavy bursts of rain are difficult for urban infrastructure to handle,” says Ancha Srinivasan, clim-ate change advisor for Southeast Asia, Asian Development Bank. “Clouds can hold seven per cent more moisture and, without wind, this results in a heavy, concentrated downpour. We will see more of this phenomenon in the coun-try’s urban areas. With more moisture, it becomes too heavy to be blown away.” What has been blown away, though, is Hyderabad’s reputation as ‘one of the most liveable cities in the world’. n

UPFRONT

By Amarnath K. Menon

H Y D E R A B A D F L O O D S

THE CITY GOES UNDER

THE FLOATERS Residents watch from the terrace in a flood-ed neighbourhood in Hyderabad, Oct. 14

320 mmAmount of rain Hyderabad got in 24 hours on Oct. 14

10,252 ha.Area the city’s lakes have

yielded to illegal construction between 2005 and 2016, says

an ICRISAT study

6,350Encroachment cases identified

on the embankments of the Musi river that flows

through Hyderabad

Upfront-10-11-Hyderabad-Nov9.indd All Pages 10/28/2020 10:30:20 PM

18 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 19

Even tho ugh he was expect-ing a “small opening”, Sanjeev Bijli, joint managing director of PVR Ltd, was disappointed

when he heard the collec tion figures for October 15. On that day, cinemas had reopened after seven months, but at only 50 per cent seating capacity and screening old films. For the moment, Bijli has pinned his hopes on West Bengal where producers rel eased new titles in time for Durga Puja, a sought-after release window in Kolkata’s film calendar. Satadeep Saha, director of SSR Cinemas, which has 13 theatres across West Bengal, had 10 fresh Bengali titles when he opened on October 21. “We haven’t yet had to cancel shows, which is reassuring,” he says. Of the new Bengali titles, Bijli and Saha picked Dracula Sir (which earned around Rs 40 lakh over a five-day run) and SOS Kolkata (Rs 30 lakh) as the biggest draws, bringing film buffs back to theatres.

Cinema operators in Gujarat, Delhi, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh have also opened for business, but are running older releases

like Tanhaji: The Unsung Warrior, Section 375 and Thappad—all available on OTT platforms. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Rajasthan, Punjab and Kerala have still not given cinemas permission to reopen. “The fundamen-tals of this business [require] the whole country to open,” says Bijli. “We are all looking forward to an announcement on a further unlock on October 31.” Theatre operators hope to get the nod from remaining states in time for Diwali, but the festive season is certain to be a dull affair. Unless theatres in Maharashtra, more specifically Mumbai, reopen, it is unlikely any top studio will announce revised release dates for their films. “I am hoping that after Diwali, some Hindi producers will release their films, [even] if not the big ones,” says Bijli.

A few studios have announced rel-eases. Zee Studios will release Suraj Pe Mangal Bhari on November 13, but is still negotiating terms with cinema own-ers and hasn’t confirmed if the comedy will have a theatrical release. Shariq Patel, the company’s CEO, revealed some of their conditions, which include

reducing the gap between the theatrical and OTT release from 50 days to three weeks, a higher share in returns and a guarantee that the number of shows during the second weekend is the same as the first. Patel was miffed that the-atres didn’t give screens to his October 2 release, Khaali Peeli, which released on ZeePlex. Theatres have refused to entertain films that skipped a theatrical release and opted for an OTT release. “If they were so keen on a theatrical release, they should have waited,” says Bijli.

The pandemic has hit both film-makers and exhibitors hard. Producers now don’t want to pay the Rs 20,000 virtual print fee (VPF) per film per the-atre to have their films showcased. The VPF came into effect in 2010 as cinemas across India began a transition from analogue projectors to digital. While Hollywood studios signed a five-year contract with theatre owners and sto-pped paying VPF by 2017-18, Indian films continue to pay the fee. In 2019, Ronnie Screwvala Pictures took India’s four largest multiplex chains—PVR, Inox, Carnival and Cinepolis—and the

Multiplex Association of India to the Competition Commission of India, con-testing VPF. His plea was dismissed.

“It’s a big revenue source for the-atres,” says a distributor of a leading production house. “VPF makes it near-impossible for small films to recover the costs of a theatrical release.” With the-atres desperate to get new films after no business for seven months, Hindi pro-ducers who have held on to their releas-es are being pricey. The long theatrical to OTT release window is said to be a key factor in producer Vashu Bhagnani opting for an OTT release for Coolie No. 1. The film will be on Amazon Prime Video from December 25.

Announcements like these bode ill for the theatrical industry. Film exhibitor Vishek Chauhan lamented on Twitter that while Hollywood studios are pushing the release of their big-ticket films, in India, these “US-based #OTT platforms are clean-ing up the slate of #Bollywood and very smartly”. Meanwhile, re-releasing old films has not paid off. “Our report [showed] very low numbers—not

very encouraging for us to release new films,” says Vinod Bhanushali, presi-dent of marketing, media and publish-ing, T-Series. Footfall, he says, might improve around Christmas, and a clearer picture will emerge only after the much-awaited, big-budget films hit theatres.

Reliance Entertainment, though, is yet to declare when it will release its two star-led completed projects—Sooryavanshi with Akshay Kumar, and the Ranveer Singh-led ’83. Shibasish Sarkar, group CEO, content, digital, gaming, hinted that the latter may hit cinemas on Christmas day. The latest KPMG report, titled ‘A Year Off Script’, said it “may take at least 3-4 quarters before occupancy normalises”.

They might be taking the OTT route for now, but film studios bank heavily on theatres, which accounted for 65 per cent of the Indian film industry’s earnings in 2019, as per the FICCI-EY report released this March. The domes-tic theatrical market grossed Rs 11,500 crore in 2019, drawing far higher rev-enues than digital (Rs 1,900 crore) and satellite (Rs 2,200 crore) rights. Another reason why multiplexes, with 3,200 screens in the country, refuse to budge on VPF. With theatres opera-tional for only five months in 2020, Tanhaji, made on a budget of Rs 172 crore, will end 2020 as the highest grosser at the box office (Rs 269 crore). It’s a sum far higher than any OTT plat-form would pay for a film.

There’s wariness, but the scenario is not altogether bleak. According to BookMyShow’s Covid survey report, titled ‘Back to Out-of-Home Entertainment’, conducted among the site’s 4,000 users, 54 per cent respondents were eager to return to theatres within 15-90 days of resump-tion. As might be expected, the fac-tor that will most critically determine whether/ when they return to theatres is “safety measures”, with 98 per cent respondents saying they expected cin-emas “to implement strict safety and hygiene measures”.

Cinema operators hope the audi-ences haven’t ditched cinemas alto-gether for OTT. “People have forgotten the habit of going to cinemas,” says filmmaker Vipul Shah. “Once we get used to the fact that theatres are open and films are releasing slowly, people will start coming back.” The show, meanwhile, will go on regardless, even if for just 20 people in a theatre. n

UPFRONTC

HA

ND

RA

DEE

P KU

MA

R

C I N E M A

RUNNING ON EMPTYBy Suhani Singh

PICTURE THIS A film screening, with

pandemic precautions, for Covid warriors and their families at a PVR

theatre in New Delhi

OTT RELEASES

Gulabo Sitabo (Amazon Prime)Budget: NAAcquisition cost: `65-70 cr

Sadak 2 (Disney+ Hotstar)Budget: `30-35 cr Acquisition cost: `70-80 cr

Coolie No. 1 (Amazon Prime) Budget: NA Acquisition cost: ̀ 75 cr

Gunjan Saxena: The Kargil Girl (Netflix)Budget: `25-35 cr Acquisition cost: `45-50 cr

Dil Bechara (Disney+ Hotstar)Budget: ̀ 25 cr Acquisition cost: NA

Laxmmi Bomb (Disney+ Hotstar)Budget: ̀ 70-80 cr Acquisition cost: `110-115 cr

Estimated figures from trade sources

Upfront-12-13-Cinema-Nov9.indd All Pages 10/28/2020 9:47:28 PM

18 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 19

Even tho ugh he was expect-ing a “small opening”, Sanjeev Bijli, joint managing director of PVR Ltd, was disappointed

when he heard the collec tion figures for October 15. On that day, cinemas had reopened after seven months, but at only 50 per cent seating capacity and screening old films. For the moment, Bijli has pinned his hopes on West Bengal where producers rel eased new titles in time for Durga Puja, a sought-after release window in Kolkata’s film calendar. Satadeep Saha, director of SSR Cinemas, which has 13 theatres across West Bengal, had 10 fresh Bengali titles when he opened on October 21. “We haven’t yet had to cancel shows, which is reassuring,” he says. Of the new Bengali titles, Bijli and Saha picked Dracula Sir (which earned around Rs 40 lakh over a five-day run) and SOS Kolkata (Rs 30 lakh) as the biggest draws, bringing film buffs back to theatres.

Cinema operators in Gujarat, Delhi, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Madhya Pradesh have also opened for business, but are running older releases

like Tanhaji: The Unsung Warrior, Section 375 and Thappad—all available on OTT platforms. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Rajasthan, Punjab and Kerala have still not given cinemas permission to reopen. “The fundamen-tals of this business [require] the whole country to open,” says Bijli. “We are all looking forward to an announcement on a further unlock on October 31.” Theatre operators hope to get the nod from remaining states in time for Diwali, but the festive season is certain to be a dull affair. Unless theatres in Maharashtra, more specifically Mumbai, reopen, it is unlikely any top studio will announce revised release dates for their films. “I am hoping that after Diwali, some Hindi producers will release their films, [even] if not the big ones,” says Bijli.

A few studios have announced rel-eases. Zee Studios will release Suraj Pe Mangal Bhari on November 13, but is still negotiating terms with cinema own-ers and hasn’t confirmed if the comedy will have a theatrical release. Shariq Patel, the company’s CEO, revealed some of their conditions, which include

reducing the gap between the theatrical and OTT release from 50 days to three weeks, a higher share in returns and a guarantee that the number of shows during the second weekend is the same as the first. Patel was miffed that the-atres didn’t give screens to his October 2 release, Khaali Peeli, which released on ZeePlex. Theatres have refused to entertain films that skipped a theatrical release and opted for an OTT release. “If they were so keen on a theatrical release, they should have waited,” says Bijli.

The pandemic has hit both film-makers and exhibitors hard. Producers now don’t want to pay the Rs 20,000 virtual print fee (VPF) per film per the-atre to have their films showcased. The VPF came into effect in 2010 as cinemas across India began a transition from analogue projectors to digital. While Hollywood studios signed a five-year contract with theatre owners and sto-pped paying VPF by 2017-18, Indian films continue to pay the fee. In 2019, Ronnie Screwvala Pictures took India’s four largest multiplex chains—PVR, Inox, Carnival and Cinepolis—and the

Multiplex Association of India to the Competition Commission of India, con-testing VPF. His plea was dismissed.

“It’s a big revenue source for the-atres,” says a distributor of a leading production house. “VPF makes it near-impossible for small films to recover the costs of a theatrical release.” With the-atres desperate to get new films after no business for seven months, Hindi pro-ducers who have held on to their releas-es are being pricey. The long theatrical to OTT release window is said to be a key factor in producer Vashu Bhagnani opting for an OTT release for Coolie No. 1. The film will be on Amazon Prime Video from December 25.

Announcements like these bode ill for the theatrical industry. Film exhibitor Vishek Chauhan lamented on Twitter that while Hollywood studios are pushing the release of their big-ticket films, in India, these “US-based #OTT platforms are clean-ing up the slate of #Bollywood and very smartly”. Meanwhile, re-releasing old films has not paid off. “Our report [showed] very low numbers—not

very encouraging for us to release new films,” says Vinod Bhanushali, presi-dent of marketing, media and publish-ing, T-Series. Footfall, he says, might improve around Christmas, and a clearer picture will emerge only after the much-awaited, big-budget films hit theatres.

Reliance Entertainment, though, is yet to declare when it will release its two star-led completed projects—Sooryavanshi with Akshay Kumar, and the Ranveer Singh-led ’83. Shibasish Sarkar, group CEO, content, digital, gaming, hinted that the latter may hit cinemas on Christmas day. The latest KPMG report, titled ‘A Year Off Script’, said it “may take at least 3-4 quarters before occupancy normalises”.

They might be taking the OTT route for now, but film studios bank heavily on theatres, which accounted for 65 per cent of the Indian film industry’s earnings in 2019, as per the FICCI-EY report released this March. The domes-tic theatrical market grossed Rs 11,500 crore in 2019, drawing far higher rev-enues than digital (Rs 1,900 crore) and satellite (Rs 2,200 crore) rights. Another reason why multiplexes, with 3,200 screens in the country, refuse to budge on VPF. With theatres opera-tional for only five months in 2020, Tanhaji, made on a budget of Rs 172 crore, will end 2020 as the highest grosser at the box office (Rs 269 crore). It’s a sum far higher than any OTT plat-form would pay for a film.

There’s wariness, but the scenario is not altogether bleak. According to BookMyShow’s Covid survey report, titled ‘Back to Out-of-Home Entertainment’, conducted among the site’s 4,000 users, 54 per cent respondents were eager to return to theatres within 15-90 days of resump-tion. As might be expected, the fac-tor that will most critically determine whether/ when they return to theatres is “safety measures”, with 98 per cent respondents saying they expected cin-emas “to implement strict safety and hygiene measures”.

Cinema operators hope the audi-ences haven’t ditched cinemas alto-gether for OTT. “People have forgotten the habit of going to cinemas,” says filmmaker Vipul Shah. “Once we get used to the fact that theatres are open and films are releasing slowly, people will start coming back.” The show, meanwhile, will go on regardless, even if for just 20 people in a theatre. n

UPFRONT

CH

AN

DR

AD

EEP

KUM

AR

C I N E M A

RUNNING ON EMPTYBy Suhani Singh

PICTURE THIS A film screening, with

pandemic precautions, for Covid warriors and their families at a PVR

theatre in New Delhi

OTT RELEASES

Gulabo Sitabo (Amazon Prime)Budget: NAAcquisition cost: `65-70 cr

Sadak 2 (Disney+ Hotstar)Budget: `30-35 cr Acquisition cost: `70-80 cr

Coolie No. 1 (Amazon Prime) Budget: NA Acquisition cost: ̀ 75 cr

Gunjan Saxena: The Kargil Girl (Netflix)Budget: `25-35 cr Acquisition cost: `45-50 cr

Dil Bechara (Disney+ Hotstar)Budget: ̀ 25 cr Acquisition cost: NA

Laxmmi Bomb (Disney+ Hotstar)Budget: ̀ 70-80 cr Acquisition cost: `110-115 cr

Estimated figures from trade sources

Upfront-12-13-Cinema-Nov9.indd All Pages 10/28/2020 9:47:28 PM

20 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 21

FARM REVOLUTION 2.0HOW TO MAKE THE SPATE OF FARM REFORMS BY THE MODI GOVERNMENT WORK

B Y R A J C H E N G A P P A

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

Photograph by BANDEEP SINGH

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 20-21 10/29/2020 11:46:32 AM

20 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 21

FARM REVOLUTION 2.0HOW TO MAKE THE SPATE OF FARM REFORMS BY THE MODI GOVERNMENT WORK

B Y R A J C H E N G A P P A

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

Photograph by BANDEEP SINGH

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 20-21 10/29/2020 11:46:32 AM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 2 32 2 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020

This, truly, is no country for farmers. For the first two decades after Independence, India went with a begging bowl to rich countries for food aid. The ship-to-mouth ex-istence ended when the Green Revolution in the late 1960s saw India achieve a laudable degree of foodgrains self-sufficiency in the next decade. Yet, as Dr Ramesh Chand, member, NITI Aayog, and a top agriculture expert, points out, even two decades into the 21st century, our farmers continue to work with 20th-century structures of agricul-ture, much to their own and the nation’s detriment.

Despite our granaries overflowing with cereal, our farm-ers are focused on producing agriculture surpluses that we cannot hope to store. We process only 10 per cent of our total agriculture output, mostly for primary products, which bring low value-addition in terms of price. Food wastage is now close to Rs 1 lakh crore annually, or 0.5 per cent of GDP. When it comes to global agriculture exports, despite our huge production surpluses, India accounts for only 2.5 per cent of the total and ranks 13th compared to Brazil’s fourth position.

The grim situation has been crying for major reforms for decades now. While industry saw dramatic changes af-ter the 1991 reforms, fuelling an explosive growth in GDP, agriculture remained a political hot potato that successive governments chose not to scald their fingers with.

THE SEEDS OF A REVOLUTION It took the challenging times of Covid-19 for Prime Minis-ter Narendra Modi to bite the agriculture bullet. In June, he pushed through three radical ordinances to overturn obsolete agricultural practices, which then became law dur-ing the monsoon session of Parliament in September. Agri-

NDIA’S FARM SECTOR IS a plateful of paradoxes. Chew on this, to begin with: We are the world’s largest producer of milk, oilseeds, pulses, cotton, mangoes, papayas and bananas. There’s more: Globally, India is the second-largest producer of rice, sugar, tea, vegetables and fish. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) currently has enough buffer stock of wheat and rice in its godowns to feed every Indian family de-pendent on the Public Distribution System for rationed grains for the next two years.

Impressed? Then try digesting these contradictions. Agriculture accounts for a mere 17 per cent of the GDP but employs 56 per cent of the country’s workforce. Fragmentation of land holdings has worsened over the decades, with 87 per cent of farmers now owning only up to two hectares of arable land on an average. Farm income for individual cultivators in terms of real prices has stagnated in the past decade. Now, 52.5 per cent of Indian farming households are steeped in debt. The average outstanding debt per agricultural household is estimated to be Rs 1.04 lakh, according to a 2016 NABARD report on rural financial inclusion, 36 per cent more than their urban counterparts. According to the National Crime Records Bureau, 28 persons engaged in the farm sector committed suicide every day in 2019, with the annual toll being 10,281.IC OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

MOUNTAIN OF GOLD Rao Avatar Singh Yadav, a farmer in Salodha, Haryana, with his wheat crop this April

A CEREAL OBSESSIONThe fixation with cereal production has prevented Indian farmers from diversifying their crop to maximise their profit and hedge against risk

Rice and wheat production has overtaken their consumption in the past quarter century

India’s yield in these select crops is lower than its counterparts in the US, China, Brazil, OECD and BRICS

Rice, wheat and maize occupy a larger cultivable area than horticulture

in proportion to their shares in value

Integrated packhouses

Reefer transport

Cold storage

Ripening units

Horticulture continues to suffer from huge shortfalls in cold chain infrastructure

MAIZE RICE SOYBEAN WHEAT

Wheat stock with the Food Corporation of India is 40 per cent above buffer norm

BRICS Brazil China India US OECD

More than One Can Eat Global Laggard

Gaps in the Cold Chain

Past the Buffer Zone

Skewed Crop Geometry

99.6%

85%

10%

91%

Private corporate investment in agriculture is only 2.4% of total invest-ment in the sector

Agriculture

Private corporate Public sector Households

Non-agri Economy

No Pvt.Funding for Farmers

200

150

100

50

0Pro

duct

ion

(mn

tonn

es)

Rural

Urban

Share of cereals in

consumer expenditure (%

)

1993

-94

1999

-00

2004

-05

2009

-10

2011

-12

2018

-19

25

20

15

10

5

0

Ric

eW

heat

121086420

2.4%19.4%

78.2%

46.4% 43.1%

25.1%

31.8%

25.5%

28%

Cereal production and consumption trends

Trend in buffer stocks with FCI

Infrastructure shortfall as a percentage of total requirement

Crop yield comparison

Share of private corporate, public and household investment in gross fixed capital formation, 2016-17

Sources: DACFW, NSS, CSO, FCI, OECD 2020, National Accounts Statistics 2018, NCCD 2019

Wheat

Rice

Norm

9080706050403020100

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Pulses

Horticulture

Oilseeds Commercial crops

Nutricereals

Rice, wheat, maize

42%

19%

13%

6%

13%

3%

12%

24%

9%8%

7%

1%

Sto

ck (m

n to

nnes

)

Yie

ld (

tonn

es p

er h

ecta

re)

Area share

Value share

Area share vs Value share

BANDEEP SINGH

Illustration by NILANJAN DASGraphics by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 22-23 10/29/2020 11:49:00 AM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 2 32 2 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020

This, truly, is no country for farmers. For the first two decades after Independence, India went with a begging bowl to rich countries for food aid. The ship-to-mouth ex-istence ended when the Green Revolution in the late 1960s saw India achieve a laudable degree of foodgrains self-sufficiency in the next decade. Yet, as Dr Ramesh Chand, member, NITI Aayog, and a top agriculture expert, points out, even two decades into the 21st century, our farmers continue to work with 20th-century structures of agricul-ture, much to their own and the nation’s detriment.

Despite our granaries overflowing with cereal, our farm-ers are focused on producing agriculture surpluses that we cannot hope to store. We process only 10 per cent of our total agriculture output, mostly for primary products, which bring low value-addition in terms of price. Food wastage is now close to Rs 1 lakh crore annually, or 0.5 per cent of GDP. When it comes to global agriculture exports, despite our huge production surpluses, India accounts for only 2.5 per cent of the total and ranks 13th compared to Brazil’s fourth position.

The grim situation has been crying for major reforms for decades now. While industry saw dramatic changes af-ter the 1991 reforms, fuelling an explosive growth in GDP, agriculture remained a political hot potato that successive governments chose not to scald their fingers with.

THE SEEDS OF A REVOLUTION It took the challenging times of Covid-19 for Prime Minis-ter Narendra Modi to bite the agriculture bullet. In June, he pushed through three radical ordinances to overturn obsolete agricultural practices, which then became law dur-ing the monsoon session of Parliament in September. Agri-

NDIA’S FARM SECTOR IS a plateful of paradoxes. Chew on this, to begin with: We are the world’s largest producer of milk, oilseeds, pulses, cotton, mangoes, papayas and bananas. There’s more: Globally, India is the second-largest producer of rice, sugar, tea, vegetables and fish. The Food Corporation of India (FCI) currently has enough buffer stock of wheat and rice in its godowns to feed every Indian family de-pendent on the Public Distribution System for rationed grains for the next two years.

Impressed? Then try digesting these contradictions. Agriculture accounts for a mere 17 per cent of the GDP but employs 56 per cent of the country’s workforce. Fragmentation of land holdings has worsened over the decades, with 87 per cent of farmers now owning only up to two hectares of arable land on an average. Farm income for individual cultivators in terms of real prices has stagnated in the past decade. Now, 52.5 per cent of Indian farming households are steeped in debt. The average outstanding debt per agricultural household is estimated to be Rs 1.04 lakh, according to a 2016 NABARD report on rural financial inclusion, 36 per cent more than their urban counterparts. According to the National Crime Records Bureau, 28 persons engaged in the farm sector committed suicide every day in 2019, with the annual toll being 10,281.IC OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

MOUNTAIN OF GOLD Rao Avatar Singh Yadav, a farmer in Salodha, Haryana, with his wheat crop this April

A CEREAL OBSESSIONThe fixation with cereal production has prevented Indian farmers from diversifying their crop to maximise their profit and hedge against risk

Rice and wheat production has overtaken their consumption in the past quarter century

India’s yield in these select crops is lower than its counterparts in the US, China, Brazil, OECD and BRICS

Rice, wheat and maize occupy a larger cultivable area than horticulture

in proportion to their shares in value

Integrated packhouses

Reefer transport

Cold storage

Ripening units

Horticulture continues to suffer from huge shortfalls in cold chain infrastructure

MAIZE RICE SOYBEAN WHEAT

Wheat stock with the Food Corporation of India is 40 per cent above buffer norm

BRICS Brazil China India US OECD

More than One Can Eat Global Laggard

Gaps in the Cold Chain

Past the Buffer Zone

Skewed Crop Geometry

99.6%

85%

10%

91%

Private corporate investment in agriculture is only 2.4% of total invest-ment in the sector

Agriculture

Private corporate Public sector Households

Non-agri Economy

No Pvt.Funding for Farmers

200

150

100

50

0Pro

duct

ion

(mn

tonn

es)

Rural

Urban

Share of cereals in

consumer expenditure (%

)

1993

-94

1999

-00

2004

-05

2009

-10

2011

-12

2018

-19

25

20

15

10

5

0

Ric

eW

heat

121086420

2.4%19.4%

78.2%

46.4% 43.1%

25.1%

31.8%

25.5%

28%

Cereal production and consumption trends

Trend in buffer stocks with FCI

Infrastructure shortfall as a percentage of total requirement

Crop yield comparison

Share of private corporate, public and household investment in gross fixed capital formation, 2016-17

Sources: DACFW, NSS, CSO, FCI, OECD 2020, National Accounts Statistics 2018, NCCD 2019

Wheat

Rice

Norm

9080706050403020100

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Pulses

Horticulture

Oilseeds Commercial crops

Nutricereals

Rice, wheat, maize

42%

19%

13%

6%

13%

3%

12%

24%

9%8%

7%

1%

Sto

ck (m

n to

nnes

)

Yie

ld (

tonn

es p

er h

ecta

re)

Area share

Value share

Area share vs Value share

BANDEEP SINGH

Illustration by NILANJAN DASGraphics by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 22-23 10/29/2020 11:49:00 AM

2 4 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 25

The majority of Indian farmers—a massive 87%—own less than 2 hectares (ha) of agricultural land, and less than 10% own high-value assets like tractors

Agricultural households by landholding size (%)

Households owning high-value agricultural assets (%)

Farmers’ incomes have remained stagnant in terms of real prices over the past decade

Over the past four decades, agriculture has remained the major employer in India

Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)

Small Plots Income Growth at a Standstill

The Biggest Employer

<0.01 ha

2.01 ha and over

136

3130

20

0.01 to 0.4 ha

0.41 to 1 ha

1.01 to 2 ha

Cultivators (millions)

1993

-94

1999

-00

2004

-05

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

144

139 16

6

146

144

141

139

136

Farm income per cultivator (Rs thousand)

Current price

Real price

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

At 52.5%, debt incidence in agri-cultural households is higher than in non-agri ones (42.8%)

Debt Ridden

Agricultural households

Average outstanding debt per household (Rs thousand)

Non-agricultural households

All households

105 77 91

The share of agriculture and allied activi-ties was an average 18% of the country’s GVA (gross value added) from 2011-18, far less than for services and industry

Nothing Much to Add

1981 20011991 2011

ROOT OF THE PROBLEMWith fragmented holdings, high debt and stagnant incomes, farming has become an unviable occupation, yet it remains the major employer in India

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

Sector share of GVA at current prices, 2011-12 series (%)

Sources: World Bank, Central Statistics Office

29.

3

20.6

15.7

NA

BRAZIL

68.

15

9.7

50

34

.8

CHINA

60

.55

95

8.2

54

.6

INDIA

52.

647

.44

8.4

45.

1

PAKISTAN

3.5

2.9

2.4

1.6

US

Falling Behind

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18 54 29 17

53 29 18

53 30 18

52 30 18

51 31 19

50 32 18

49 33 19

ServicesAgriculture, forestry & fishing

Industry

While the overall GDP growth rate has risen 1.5 percentage points since the 1980s, agricultural GDP growth has fallen

Overall GDP

Agriculture GDP

5.6 5.77.4 7.1

4.73.4 2.6 3.4

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-15

1993

-94

1999

-00

2004

-05

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

(Note: figures may not total to 100% due to rounding)

Avg.

ann

ual g

row

th r

ate

culture expert Ashok Gulati hailed it as the “1991 moment for reforms in agriculture, a game-changer which has set the ball rolling for a farm revolution”. The three acts of leg-islation free Indian farmers from the stifling clutches of governments, both at the Centre and in the states, by making the following major changes: The Farmers’ Produce Trade and Comme-rce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020, permits farmers to sell their produce any-where in India to help them get better prices and to usher in what Union agriculture secre-tary Sanjay Agarwal calls a ‘One nation, one market’. Earlier, most farmers (barring in Bihar and in Kerala) had to sell their produce only to registered Agricultural Produce Mar-keting Committees (APMC) in their states. The new act also prohibits state governments from levying market fees, cesses or levies out-side the APMC areas, a measure destined to benefit both farmers and buyers who now pay anything from 2 to 8 per cent. The Farmers’ (Empowerment and Protec-tion) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, 2020, will allow the corporate sector to engage in contract farming across the country while ensuring strict condi-tionalities to prevent them from exploiting farmers. This is to overcome the problem of fragmented land holdings by legally permitting consolidation of farmland for cultivation to achieve economies of scale. The Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020, removes cereals, pulses, oilseeds, edible oils and potatoes from the list of essential commodities and permits the cen-tral government to regulate supply of certain food items only in extraordinary circumstances such as war, famine or in case of a steep rise in prices. This is to encourage private sector investment, which has been negligible because of the frequent market interventions by the central government to shield consumers from higher prices and prevent farmers

from gaining in times of scarcity. Defending these reforms on several public platforms, the

PM said, “The government’s priority in the past was to only increase food production. People forgot about income for farmers. For the first time, this thinking has been changed. Today, opportunities have been made to take farming and farmers from the role of annadata (food provider) to that of entrepreneurs.” Yet, even before these changes became law, the prime minister was greeted with a rash of protests, including some from unexpected quarters. Harsimrat Kaur Badal, the Union food processing minister, resigned in pro-test and the Akali Dal party she represents pulled out of the National Democratic Alliance.

Major unrest broke out in Punjab, the prime mover of Green Revolution 1.0, where many farmers clearly fear that the new farm acts will cause them financial harm.

FARM POLITICS The PM addressing a rally in Sasram, Bihar; Rahul Gandhi arrives for Kisan Bachao rally in Bathinda, Punjab

“THE FARM LAWS ARE A 1991 MOMENT FOR

AGRICULTURE, A GAME-CHANGER THAT HAS SET THE BALL ROLLING FOR A

FARM REVOLUTION”— ASHOK GULATI Chair Professor

for Agriculture, ICRIER

ANI

SA

NJEE

V K

UM

AR

/ GE

TTY IM

AG

ES

Trac

tor

Pow

er

tille

r

Spr

inkl

er

Dri

p ir

riga

tion

syst

em

Har

vest

er

5.2

1.80.8

1.60.2

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 24-25 10/29/2020 12:45:40 PM

2 4 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 25

The majority of Indian farmers—a massive 87%—own less than 2 hectares (ha) of agricultural land, and less than 10% own high-value assets like tractors

Agricultural households by landholding size (%)

Households owning high-value agricultural assets (%)

Farmers’ incomes have remained stagnant in terms of real prices over the past decade

Over the past four decades, agriculture has remained the major employer in India

Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)

Small Plots Income Growth at a Standstill

The Biggest Employer

<0.01 ha

2.01 ha and over

136

3130

20

0.01 to 0.4 ha

0.41 to 1 ha

1.01 to 2 ha

Cultivators (millions)

1993

-94

1999

-00

2004

-05

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

144

139 16

6

146

144

141

139

136

Farm income per cultivator (Rs thousand)

Current price

Real price

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

At 52.5%, debt incidence in agri-cultural households is higher than in non-agri ones (42.8%)

Debt Ridden

Agricultural households

Average outstanding debt per household (Rs thousand)

Non-agricultural households

All households

105 77 91

The share of agriculture and allied activi-ties was an average 18% of the country’s GVA (gross value added) from 2011-18, far less than for services and industry

Nothing Much to Add

1981 20011991 2011

ROOT OF THE PROBLEMWith fragmented holdings, high debt and stagnant incomes, farming has become an unviable occupation, yet it remains the major employer in India

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

Sector share of GVA at current prices, 2011-12 series (%)

Sources: World Bank, Central Statistics Office

29.

3

20.6

15.7

NA

BRAZIL

68.

15

9.7

50

34

.8

CHINA

60

.55

95

8.2

54

.6

INDIA

52.

647

.44

8.4

45.

1

PAKISTAN

3.5

2.9

2.4

1.6

US

Falling Behind

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18 54 29 17

53 29 18

53 30 18

52 30 18

51 31 19

50 32 18

49 33 19

ServicesAgriculture, forestry & fishing

Industry

While the overall GDP growth rate has risen 1.5 percentage points since the 1980s, agricultural GDP growth has fallen

Overall GDP

Agriculture GDP

5.6 5.77.4 7.1

4.73.4 2.6 3.4

1980s 1990s 2000s 2010-15

1993

-94

1999

-00

2004

-05

2011

-12

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

(Note: figures may not total to 100% due to rounding)

Avg.

ann

ual g

row

th r

ate

culture expert Ashok Gulati hailed it as the “1991 moment for reforms in agriculture, a game-changer which has set the ball rolling for a farm revolution”. The three acts of leg-islation free Indian farmers from the stifling clutches of governments, both at the Centre and in the states, by making the following major changes: The Farmers’ Produce Trade and Comme-rce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020, permits farmers to sell their produce any-where in India to help them get better prices and to usher in what Union agriculture secre-tary Sanjay Agarwal calls a ‘One nation, one market’. Earlier, most farmers (barring in Bihar and in Kerala) had to sell their produce only to registered Agricultural Produce Mar-keting Committees (APMC) in their states. The new act also prohibits state governments from levying market fees, cesses or levies out-side the APMC areas, a measure destined to benefit both farmers and buyers who now pay anything from 2 to 8 per cent. The Farmers’ (Empowerment and Protec-tion) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, 2020, will allow the corporate sector to engage in contract farming across the country while ensuring strict condi-tionalities to prevent them from exploiting farmers. This is to overcome the problem of fragmented land holdings by legally permitting consolidation of farmland for cultivation to achieve economies of scale. The Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020, removes cereals, pulses, oilseeds, edible oils and potatoes from the list of essential commodities and permits the cen-tral government to regulate supply of certain food items only in extraordinary circumstances such as war, famine or in case of a steep rise in prices. This is to encourage private sector investment, which has been negligible because of the frequent market interventions by the central government to shield consumers from higher prices and prevent farmers

from gaining in times of scarcity. Defending these reforms on several public platforms, the

PM said, “The government’s priority in the past was to only increase food production. People forgot about income for farmers. For the first time, this thinking has been changed. Today, opportunities have been made to take farming and farmers from the role of annadata (food provider) to that of entrepreneurs.” Yet, even before these changes became law, the prime minister was greeted with a rash of protests, including some from unexpected quarters. Harsimrat Kaur Badal, the Union food processing minister, resigned in pro-test and the Akali Dal party she represents pulled out of the National Democratic Alliance.

Major unrest broke out in Punjab, the prime mover of Green Revolution 1.0, where many farmers clearly fear that the new farm acts will cause them financial harm.

FARM POLITICS The PM addressing a rally in Sasram, Bihar; Rahul Gandhi arrives for Kisan Bachao rally in Bathinda, Punjab

“THE FARM LAWS ARE A 1991 MOMENT FOR

AGRICULTURE, A GAME-CHANGER THAT HAS SET THE BALL ROLLING FOR A

FARM REVOLUTION”— ASHOK GULATI Chair Professor

for Agriculture, ICRIER

ANIS

AN

JEEV

KU

MA

R/ G

ETTY

IMA

GES

Trac

tor

Pow

er

tille

r

Spr

inkl

er

Dri

p ir

riga

tion

syst

em

Har

vest

er

5.2

1.80.8

1.60.2

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 24-25 10/29/2020 12:45:40 PM

2 6 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 2 7

With agriculture being a state subject, the state government ac-cused the Centre of enacting these legislations in violation of the federal structure. On October 21, Punjab chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh convened a special assembly session and got it to unanimously pass state-specific amendments to the three acts passed by the Centre. These included making mandatory the sale of grains only through the APMC and prohibiting buy-ers from purchasing grains below the Minimum Support Price (MSP)—with jail sentences for violators. Punjab finance minister Manpreet Badal argued, “Why should the Centre tinker with a

system that has stood the test of time and made India self-sufficient in food? Punjab is the principal state to do that. All we are saying is consult the stakeholders and have a rethink. Why this arrogance from the Modi government which thinks only they know best?” (See A Bitter Harvest.)

In Chhattisgarh, another Congress-ruled state, the government headed by Bh-upesh Baghel, passed simi-lar amendments in the as-sembly. The Congress-ruled Rajasthan government, too, announced its intention to do so, making the divide between the ruling BJP and Congress evident. Mean-

while, major farmers’ organisations and supporters, including some affiliated to the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), decided to launch a nationwide agitation against these reforms. Though RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat endorsed the PM’s farm re-forms in his annual Dussehra speech, the Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM), which is an affiliate of the Sangh, called for amendments to the act. Ashwani Mahajan, SJM’s co-convenor, said: “We welcome the farm bills. But since the farmers are a weaker entity, we want changes in the acts to bring them maximum benefit and remove any disadvantages.” The SJM appeared to back Punjab’s demand for making MSP mandatory but couched it differently, saying a minimum reserve price needed to be fixed for grains like wheat and rice below which no sale should be permitted.

WHILE THE SITUATION CALLS for some give on the Modi government’s part, it will not change the direc-tion in which farm reforms are headed. Says Ashok Dalwai, CEO, National Rainfed Area Authority: “The first shift is to move away from a production-oriented

regime to one that focuses on enhancing farmers’ incomes and aids demand-driven decisions for growing crops.” Most experts consider the three pieces of legislation as the first big step on the long road to Farm Revolution 2.0. Here is what the Modi govern-

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

“THE FIRST SHIFT IS TO MOVE AWAY FROM

A PRODUCTION-ORIENTED REGIME TO ONE THAT ENHANCES

FARMER INCOMES AND AIDS DEMAND-DRIVEN DECISIONS”

— ASHOK DALWAICEO, National Rainfed

Area Authority

Pomegranate

Mangoes

Onions

Honey

Groundnuts

Rice

Buffalo

Tea

Shrimp

Coconut

Sheep

Grapes

Coffee

Cocoa

Spices

Sugar

Cotton

Pulses

Cashewnuts

Wood

Vegetable Oil

0.10.20.50.1

0.57.33.60.84.70.3

00.20.7

-0.11.20.51.6

-0.8-1.1

-6.4-7.9

Import Export (2018) ($ mn)

Trade Balance ($bn)

India ranks second in gross agricul-ture production, but output is less than a third of the leader, China

India’s agricultural exports have fluc-tuated in the past decade but have flattened more recently 20

09

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

The production versus export lag becomes starker in commodities where India is ranked the highest in the world

Despite India’s high rank in production, it is only 13th in terms of agricultural exports, with a 2.4 per cent share in world exports

Sources: IHS, UN Comtrade, DGCIS, DFI, commerce ministry, IBEF, FCI, DFPD

India needs to substitute the import of oilseeds and cashewnuts to reduce trade deficit

THE EXPORT SCENARIO

High on Production...

The Plateau of Agri Exports

Dropping Rank

...Low on Exports

How to Fix the Trade Balance

India has failed to leverage the advantage of high agricultural production to increase the export of agricultural commodidies

Chi

na

Ind

ia

US

A

Indo

nesi

a

Bra

zil

Nig

eria

Japa

n

Rus

sia

Fran

ce

Thai

land

Vie

tnam

Pak

isth

an

Turk

ey

Mal

aysi

a

Aus

tral

ia

1,72

7

53

94

47

34

4

162

119

118

114

102

98

92

82 75 74 73

US

A

Net

herl

ands

Ger

man

y

Bra

zil

Chi

na

Fran

ce

Spa

in

Italy

Can

ada

Bel

gium

Thai

land

Indo

nesi

a

Ind

ia

Pol

and

Arg

entin

a

152.

7

101.

28

7.1

85.

58

0

72.5

56.

75

6.3

50

.8

46.

6

39.

43

8.6

38

34

.9

34

.9

Coffee & Spices

Tea

Sugar

Fish

Oilseeds

Cereals

Tobacco

Edible vegetables

Edible fruits

Dairy products

India’s share in world exports (%)

WORLD RANK

Pro

duct

ion

Expo

rts

5

2

2

2

1

3

3

2

1

1

5

5

10

12

12

14

15

17

25

47

4.44.1

1.9

2.6

1.5

1.4

1.7

1.51

0.2

50

40

30

20

10

Export priceMSP equivalent

450

400

350

300

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

Gross agriculture production by countries ($ billion, 2018)

Agriculture exports ($ billion, 2018)

Agriculture exports ($ billion)

High minimum support prices make Indian produce uncompetitive for exports

Distorted by the MSP

FOB (free on board price ($/MT)

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 26-27 10/29/2020 11:50:58 AM

2 6 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 2 7

With agriculture being a state subject, the state government ac-cused the Centre of enacting these legislations in violation of the federal structure. On October 21, Punjab chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh convened a special assembly session and got it to unanimously pass state-specific amendments to the three acts passed by the Centre. These included making mandatory the sale of grains only through the APMC and prohibiting buy-ers from purchasing grains below the Minimum Support Price (MSP)—with jail sentences for violators. Punjab finance minister Manpreet Badal argued, “Why should the Centre tinker with a

system that has stood the test of time and made India self-sufficient in food? Punjab is the principal state to do that. All we are saying is consult the stakeholders and have a rethink. Why this arrogance from the Modi government which thinks only they know best?” (See A Bitter Harvest.)

In Chhattisgarh, another Congress-ruled state, the government headed by Bh-upesh Baghel, passed simi-lar amendments in the as-sembly. The Congress-ruled Rajasthan government, too, announced its intention to do so, making the divide between the ruling BJP and Congress evident. Mean-

while, major farmers’ organisations and supporters, including some affiliated to the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), decided to launch a nationwide agitation against these reforms. Though RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat endorsed the PM’s farm re-forms in his annual Dussehra speech, the Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM), which is an affiliate of the Sangh, called for amendments to the act. Ashwani Mahajan, SJM’s co-convenor, said: “We welcome the farm bills. But since the farmers are a weaker entity, we want changes in the acts to bring them maximum benefit and remove any disadvantages.” The SJM appeared to back Punjab’s demand for making MSP mandatory but couched it differently, saying a minimum reserve price needed to be fixed for grains like wheat and rice below which no sale should be permitted.

WHILE THE SITUATION CALLS for some give on the Modi government’s part, it will not change the direc-tion in which farm reforms are headed. Says Ashok Dalwai, CEO, National Rainfed Area Authority: “The first shift is to move away from a production-oriented

regime to one that focuses on enhancing farmers’ incomes and aids demand-driven decisions for growing crops.” Most experts consider the three pieces of legislation as the first big step on the long road to Farm Revolution 2.0. Here is what the Modi govern-

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

“THE FIRST SHIFT IS TO MOVE AWAY FROM

A PRODUCTION-ORIENTED REGIME TO ONE THAT ENHANCES

FARMER INCOMES AND AIDS DEMAND-DRIVEN DECISIONS”

— ASHOK DALWAICEO, National Rainfed

Area Authority

Pomegranate

Mangoes

Onions

Honey

Groundnuts

Rice

Buffalo

Tea

Shrimp

Coconut

Sheep

Grapes

Coffee

Cocoa

Spices

Sugar

Cotton

Pulses

Cashewnuts

Wood

Vegetable Oil

0.10.20.50.1

0.57.33.60.84.70.3

00.20.7

-0.11.20.51.6

-0.8-1.1

-6.4-7.9

Import Export (2018) ($ mn)

Trade Balance ($bn)

India ranks second in gross agricul-ture production, but output is less than a third of the leader, China

India’s agricultural exports have fluc-tuated in the past decade but have flattened more recently 20

09

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

The production versus export lag becomes starker in commodities where India is ranked the highest in the world

Despite India’s high rank in production, it is only 13th in terms of agricultural exports, with a 2.4 per cent share in world exports

Sources: IHS, UN Comtrade, DGCIS, DFI, commerce ministry, IBEF, FCI, DFPD

India needs to substitute the import of oilseeds and cashewnuts to reduce trade deficit

THE EXPORT SCENARIO

High on Production...

The Plateau of Agri Exports

Dropping Rank

...Low on Exports

How to Fix the Trade Balance

India has failed to leverage the advantage of high agricultural production to increase the export of agricultural commodidies

Chi

na

Ind

ia

US

A

Indo

nesi

a

Bra

zil

Nig

eria

Japa

n

Rus

sia

Fran

ce

Thai

land

Vie

tnam

Pak

isth

an

Turk

ey

Mal

aysi

a

Aus

tral

ia

1,72

7

53

94

47

34

4

162

119

118

114

102

98

92

82 75 74 73

US

A

Net

herl

ands

Ger

man

y

Bra

zil

Chi

na

Fran

ce

Spa

in

Italy

Can

ada

Bel

gium

Thai

land

Indo

nesi

a

Ind

ia

Pol

and

Arg

entin

a

152.

7

101.

28

7.1

85.

58

0

72.5

56.

75

6.3

50

.8

46.

6

39.

43

8.6

38

34

.9

34

.9

Coffee & Spices

Tea

Sugar

Fish

Oilseeds

Cereals

Tobacco

Edible vegetables

Edible fruits

Dairy products

India’s share in world exports (%)

WORLD RANK

Pro

duct

ion

Expo

rts

5

2

2

2

1

3

3

2

1

1

5

5

10

12

12

14

15

17

25

47

4.44.1

1.9

2.6

1.5

1.4

1.7

1.51

0.2

50

40

30

20

10

Export priceMSP equivalent

450

400

350

300

2012

-13

2013

-14

2014

-15

2015

-16

2016

-17

2017

-18

2018

-19

2019

-20

Gross agriculture production by countries ($ billion, 2018)

Agriculture exports ($ billion, 2018)

Agriculture exports ($ billion)

High minimum support prices make Indian produce uncompetitive for exports

Distorted by the MSP

FOB (free on board price ($/MT)

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 26-27 10/29/2020 11:50:58 AM

2 8 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 2 9

ment and key stakeholders need to do to put reforms on the fast track:

RESIST THE CEREAL TRAPWhile ushering in farm reform, the PM was careful not to dismantle the existing agriculture structure, particularly the APMCs and the MSP regime. Instead, he introduced a parallel trading system that opened itself to the private sector and a market determination of farm prices. In doing so, experts say, Modi has wisely chosen not to make a total break from the past but follow a policy similar to the open skies one that transformed India’s aviation sector in the 1990s. By permitting private airlines to operate, the policy ended the monopoly of Indian Airlines and saw a vast improvement in air services for the consumer. A gradual, transitional approach is needed to enable farmers to choose crops that would earn them the maximum income rather than remaining caught in the cereal production trap, eter-nally dependent on government largesse.

THE QUEST FOR FOODGRAINS SECURITY saw succes-sive governments concentrate on boosting production of cereals, particularly wheat and rice. The central gov-ernment also set up an MSP regime initially only for foodgrains to insulate farmers from the seasonal price

fluctuations. Though MSP was subsequently expanded to 23 products, wheat and rice continue to dominate. They still account for 80 per cent of the government’s purchases, with oilseeds and pulses making up the rest. In effect, MSP im-

Yet, the excessive emphasis on grow-ing foodgrains has seen groundwater tables in Punjab and Haryana dip pre-cipitously by an average of seven metres a year. Much of the surplus foodgrains either rots, leading to wastage, or is lost to large-scale pilferage in the PDS sys-tem. To break free from the cereal trap, experts now advocate moving to direct benefit transfer (DBT) schemes that provide a lump sum incentive to farm-ers every season to grow whatever crops can earn them maximum income. This would result in a tapering of power and fertiliser subsidies and even reduce gov-ernment procurement significantly. In Haryana, for instance, farmers are be-ing paid Rs 7,000 per acre every season as an incentive to grow neither wheat nor paddy and instead diversify. This is beginning to produce results.

BUILDING A 21ST CENTURY INFRASTRUCTURE The APMCs, till recently, were the holy cows of the agri-culture structure. Efforts to revamp them in the past met with limited success. Formed in the 1970s, they did initially facilitate fair trade for farmers by ensuring buyers were registered and that they paid up promptly. However, soon APMCs deteriorated into zamindar-like institutions in many states, with arthiyas (middlemen) forming cartels that enabled them to profit at the expense of farmers. States like Punjab, which levies an average 8.5 per cent in cesses and fees, even saw the APMC as a source of revenue, earning

pacts only 6 per cent of the total farming community, but a majority of the farm-ers in Punjab and Haryana depend on it.

In 2019-20, of the total wheat pro-duction of 106 million tonnes, state gov-ernments purchased 34 million tonnes, or one-third of the produce. Punjab and Haryana accounted for more than 60 per cent of the purchase. In rice, of the total production of 117 million tonnes, state governments purchased 50 mil-lion tonnes, with Punjab accounting for a fifth of it. The huge surpluses in grains are becoming counter-produc-tive. In June this year, for instance, the FCI had more than 86 million tonnes of foodgrains stock available. After dis-bursing for the new free grains distri-bution schemes during the pandemic, it will still have in excess of 50 million

tonnes of grains when the next procurement season begins. According to estimates, the Centre spends Rs 2 lakh crore, or 1 per cent of GDP, to procure grains.

Despite fruits and vegetables fetching higher income per hectare, many farmers continue to grow foodgrains be-cause they are not subject to the vagaries of the market and assure them a steady return. In a research paper published in a reputed agricultural journal last year, Ramesh Chand calculated that input subsides like power, fertiliser and subvention of credit amounted to as much as Rs 14,639 per hectare of sown area in 2015-16. Power and fertiliser sub-sidies accounted for more than 75 per cent. The total input subsidy to agriculture paid out by the government during that year was Rs 2.05 lakh crore, or 1 per cent of India’s GDP.

Rs 3,500 crore a year. Bihar took the bold decision in

2006, when Nitish Kumar, in his first term as chief minister, decided to abol-ish APMCs and end the harassment of farmers by middlemen and free up private investment in infrastructure. While there was disruption in trade initially, it later led to the emergence of many private enterprise-driven market-ing models. Instead of farmers going to APMCs as they do in other states, trade has begun to happen at the farmgate level itself. Banana cultivators in Pur-nia district, for instance, sell directly to traders who come to their farms, saving them transportation costs and spoilage.

Meanwhile, two private companies have set up over 200 warehouses across the state and provide farmers storage

space at a cost till they are able to sell their produce at the best price. A Tamil Nadu food processing company picked up 1 lakh tonnes of maize from a farmers’ collective recently. Farmers have even diversified to crops like makhana (fox-nuts), of which Bihar has become one of the country’s largest producers. Bihar’s agriculture secretary N. Saravana Kumar says, “Farmers are no more dependent on MSP to sell their produce and are getting a better price. Freeing the farmers from the shackles of APMCs has certainly helped.”

With the new act enabling contract farming across the country, the buzzword is reinvigorating the farmer pro-ducer organisations (FPO) across the country to facilitate the revolution. They act like cooperatives, with anything between 100 and 1,000 farmers as members who can pool

“EVEN TWO DECADES INTO THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, OUR FARMERS

CONTINUE TO WORK WITH 20TH-CENTURY

STRUCTURES OF AGRICULTURE. THIS HAS

TO CHANGE”— RAMESH CHAND

Member, NITI Aayog

“THE REFORMS WILL PROVIDE FARMERS MARKET FREEDOM,

ENCOURAGE ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND ACCESS TO TECHNOLOGY. THEY WILL TRANSFORM

AGRICULTURE”— DR P.K. MISHRA

Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE AGRO PROCESSOR A tomato collection centre outside Nashik; an ITC manufac-turing facility in Howrah and its wheat silos on the outskirts of Amritsar

RASIKA DESHPANDE SUBIR HALDER

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 28-29 10/29/2020 11:51:25 AM

2 8 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 2 9

ment and key stakeholders need to do to put reforms on the fast track:

RESIST THE CEREAL TRAPWhile ushering in farm reform, the PM was careful not to dismantle the existing agriculture structure, particularly the APMCs and the MSP regime. Instead, he introduced a parallel trading system that opened itself to the private sector and a market determination of farm prices. In doing so, experts say, Modi has wisely chosen not to make a total break from the past but follow a policy similar to the open skies one that transformed India’s aviation sector in the 1990s. By permitting private airlines to operate, the policy ended the monopoly of Indian Airlines and saw a vast improvement in air services for the consumer. A gradual, transitional approach is needed to enable farmers to choose crops that would earn them the maximum income rather than remaining caught in the cereal production trap, eter-nally dependent on government largesse.

THE QUEST FOR FOODGRAINS SECURITY saw succes-sive governments concentrate on boosting production of cereals, particularly wheat and rice. The central gov-ernment also set up an MSP regime initially only for foodgrains to insulate farmers from the seasonal price

fluctuations. Though MSP was subsequently expanded to 23 products, wheat and rice continue to dominate. They still account for 80 per cent of the government’s purchases, with oilseeds and pulses making up the rest. In effect, MSP im-

Yet, the excessive emphasis on grow-ing foodgrains has seen groundwater tables in Punjab and Haryana dip pre-cipitously by an average of seven metres a year. Much of the surplus foodgrains either rots, leading to wastage, or is lost to large-scale pilferage in the PDS sys-tem. To break free from the cereal trap, experts now advocate moving to direct benefit transfer (DBT) schemes that provide a lump sum incentive to farm-ers every season to grow whatever crops can earn them maximum income. This would result in a tapering of power and fertiliser subsidies and even reduce gov-ernment procurement significantly. In Haryana, for instance, farmers are be-ing paid Rs 7,000 per acre every season as an incentive to grow neither wheat nor paddy and instead diversify. This is beginning to produce results.

BUILDING A 21ST CENTURY INFRASTRUCTURE The APMCs, till recently, were the holy cows of the agri-culture structure. Efforts to revamp them in the past met with limited success. Formed in the 1970s, they did initially facilitate fair trade for farmers by ensuring buyers were registered and that they paid up promptly. However, soon APMCs deteriorated into zamindar-like institutions in many states, with arthiyas (middlemen) forming cartels that enabled them to profit at the expense of farmers. States like Punjab, which levies an average 8.5 per cent in cesses and fees, even saw the APMC as a source of revenue, earning

pacts only 6 per cent of the total farming community, but a majority of the farm-ers in Punjab and Haryana depend on it.

In 2019-20, of the total wheat pro-duction of 106 million tonnes, state gov-ernments purchased 34 million tonnes, or one-third of the produce. Punjab and Haryana accounted for more than 60 per cent of the purchase. In rice, of the total production of 117 million tonnes, state governments purchased 50 mil-lion tonnes, with Punjab accounting for a fifth of it. The huge surpluses in grains are becoming counter-produc-tive. In June this year, for instance, the FCI had more than 86 million tonnes of foodgrains stock available. After dis-bursing for the new free grains distri-bution schemes during the pandemic, it will still have in excess of 50 million

tonnes of grains when the next procurement season begins. According to estimates, the Centre spends Rs 2 lakh crore, or 1 per cent of GDP, to procure grains.

Despite fruits and vegetables fetching higher income per hectare, many farmers continue to grow foodgrains be-cause they are not subject to the vagaries of the market and assure them a steady return. In a research paper published in a reputed agricultural journal last year, Ramesh Chand calculated that input subsides like power, fertiliser and subvention of credit amounted to as much as Rs 14,639 per hectare of sown area in 2015-16. Power and fertiliser sub-sidies accounted for more than 75 per cent. The total input subsidy to agriculture paid out by the government during that year was Rs 2.05 lakh crore, or 1 per cent of India’s GDP.

Rs 3,500 crore a year. Bihar took the bold decision in

2006, when Nitish Kumar, in his first term as chief minister, decided to abol-ish APMCs and end the harassment of farmers by middlemen and free up private investment in infrastructure. While there was disruption in trade initially, it later led to the emergence of many private enterprise-driven market-ing models. Instead of farmers going to APMCs as they do in other states, trade has begun to happen at the farmgate level itself. Banana cultivators in Pur-nia district, for instance, sell directly to traders who come to their farms, saving them transportation costs and spoilage.

Meanwhile, two private companies have set up over 200 warehouses across the state and provide farmers storage

space at a cost till they are able to sell their produce at the best price. A Tamil Nadu food processing company picked up 1 lakh tonnes of maize from a farmers’ collective recently. Farmers have even diversified to crops like makhana (fox-nuts), of which Bihar has become one of the country’s largest producers. Bihar’s agriculture secretary N. Saravana Kumar says, “Farmers are no more dependent on MSP to sell their produce and are getting a better price. Freeing the farmers from the shackles of APMCs has certainly helped.”

With the new act enabling contract farming across the country, the buzzword is reinvigorating the farmer pro-ducer organisations (FPO) across the country to facilitate the revolution. They act like cooperatives, with anything between 100 and 1,000 farmers as members who can pool

“EVEN TWO DECADES INTO THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY, OUR FARMERS

CONTINUE TO WORK WITH 20TH-CENTURY

STRUCTURES OF AGRICULTURE. THIS HAS

TO CHANGE”— RAMESH CHAND

Member, NITI Aayog

“THE REFORMS WILL PROVIDE FARMERS MARKET FREEDOM,

ENCOURAGE ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND ACCESS TO TECHNOLOGY. THEY WILL TRANSFORM

AGRICULTURE”— DR P.K. MISHRA

Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE AGRO PROCESSOR A tomato collection centre outside Nashik; an ITC manufac-turing facility in Howrah and its wheat silos on the outskirts of Amritsar

RASIKA DESHPANDE SUBIR HALDER

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 28-29 10/29/2020 11:51:25 AM

30 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 31

their landholdings to build economies of scale. Many of the 6,000 FPOs are non-functional, however. The Modi government has promised to increase the number of FPOs to around 10,000 in five years and has set aside Rs 5,000 crore to fund them. These FPOs will form value chain clusters and enter into agreements with private enterprises to invest in the entire production and marketing cycle.

Already, FPOs are proving to be highly effective in some states. In Nashik, Sahyadri Farms (SF), an FPO formed in 2010 with an initial investment of Rs 2 crore and a membership of 500 farmers, began by purchasing fruits and vegetables and then graduated to processing a wide range of fruit juices, sauces and jams. The FPO then established links with reputed retail chain operators across several cities besides opening its own retail shops. Within a decade, SF had increased its capital base to Rs 100 crore, expanded its network to 8,000 farmers and set up 6,000 tonnes of storage facilities for use. It is now one of India’s largest grape exporters. Its formula for success? “Sahya-dri provides infrastructure to even the smallest farmer to be part of the global supply value chain,” says chairman and man-aging director Vilas Shinde.

Many private corporate gi-ants have also demonstrated tremendous success while work-ing with Indian farmers. ITC’s e-Chaupal is one such shining example. Beginning in the early 2000s, it has now become the largest internet-based interven-tion service in rural India. It cov-ers over 4 million farmers that grow a diverse range of crops in over 35,000 villages across 10 states. With over 6,100 kiosks manned by sanchalaks, the company provides the farming community ready information on the weather and mar-ket prices, disseminates climate-smart sustainable farm practices, facilitates sale of farm inputs and purchases farm produce from the doorstep, saving transportation and handling costs. These are now regarded as world-class, new-age farm cooperatives, a cluster of whom produce the well-known Aashirvaad Atta brand. “The key for contract farming to work is reciprocal dependence between the farmer and business house,” says S. Sivakumar, who oversees ITC’s agri and IT businesses. He sees great opportunity for start-up companies to provide a range of solutions for FPOs, including market information, pricing, aggregations, logistics, counter-party risk insurance and bridge financing. It could also result in millions of jobs in rural areas.

Other corporates like Pepsico have also shown the way for Indian business. The company sources all its potatoes for its Lay’s brand of chips from Indian farmers across several states. It works with over 27,000 farmers, hand-holding them through the crop life-cycle, pro-

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

“SETTING UP A ‘LIGHTHOUSE’ CROPS VALUE

CHAIN WILL BE AN EXAMPLE FOR

EXPORTS. THE GOVT’S REFORMS

WILL LEAD TO NEXT-GEN AGRICULTURE”

— SANJIV PURI CMD, ITC

A BITTER HARVESTWhy is Punjab, a champion of the Green Revolution, one of the fiercest opponents of the new agriculture laws?

Being a champion of the Green Revolution, which made India self-sufficient in foodgrains production, Punjab is perhaps the last state one expected to revolt against the agriculture reforms passed by the Narendra Modi government. Yet, soon after the reforms became law, farmers were protesting across the state, even blocking trains from plying. The fierce protests even led to the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) break-ing its alliance with the NDA, with the SAD’s Harsimrat Kaur Badal resigning from the Union cabinet. Soon after, Punjab chief min-ister Captain Amarinder Singh summoned the state legislative assembly, and a bill to bring about state-specific amendments to the new central laws was passed unanimously. Essentially, these amendments restored the status quo ante and imposed harsher punishments for violators.

Development expert Pramod Kumar believes that the agitation was triggered by apprehensions

not based on fact but on fears that the new laws set the stage to do away with the APMC (Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee) system, procurement and MSPs (minimum support prices). The Modi government has repeatedly said that this would not happen, and that the intent behind the new laws was to give farmers an alternative system of market-ing. However, Punjab remained unconvinced, demanding that MSPs—which are an administra-tive policy, not a law—be given a legal footing. When the Centre refused to acquiesce, the state assembly passed a resolution to make it so, even decreeing that agricultural trade was to be con-ducted only through the APMCs.

Some say that a major reason for the apprehension is that the state has become dependent on the MSP system. Punjab benefits massively from central procure-ment—the state accounts for 30 per cent of the wheat procure-ment and a tenth of rice procure-ment. The state’s farmers enjoy significant government support—free power, subsidised fertilis-ers, credit subvention and an assured sale of their produce. As a result, despite the water tables dropping precipitously in Punjab

because of rice cultivation, it is in the interest of the state’s farm-ers to continue to grow this crop year after year. It is also in the arthiyas’ interest that status quo prevail, because with the FCI buying most of the state’s wheat, they could rake in commissions without much effort. And it is in the interest of the state because it earns over Rs 3,500 crore annu-ally from market fees and levies.

Experts say both the Centre and the state are at fault for creat-ing the crisis. They say that before passing the reforms, the Centre should have addressed the appre-hensions the state’s farmers had, particularly because farmers see these laws as a ploy to gradually

do away with all input subsidies and even the MSP system. Some argue that the Modi government is working towards ul-timately giving farmers cash incentives through the DBT (direct benefit transfer) scheme rather than through input sub-sidies. Many also say that if the Centre wanted Punjab’s farmers to diversify to other crops, it should have drawn up and funded a plan to compensate farmers for not growing wheat or rice in water-stressed areas, as neighbouring Haryana has been doing.

They also argue that the state gov-ernment should draw up a blueprint for change, including an agro-processing plan for the new crops that it would in-centivise farmers to switch to. Ultimately, it is in Punjab’s interest to move towards a cash-based subsidy system rather than an input-centred one. They say that Pun-jab should, in fact, be leading the way for Farm Revolution 2.0 rather than blocking its path. However, the onus is also on the Centre to ensure that Punjab has all the help it needs to benefit from the reform process. After all, it was Punjab’s farmers who were instrumental in giving India her food security. Farmers deserve our gratitude and respect, and we should win them over rather than entering into a debilitating confrontation with them. n

SOME SAY THE CORE REASON FOR THE PROTESTS IS THAT PUNJAB, AS A MAJOR BENEFICIARY, HAS BECOME DEPENDENT ON THE MSP SYSTEM

PUNJA B PRO T ES T S

BDOWN WITH FARM BILLS Protesting farmers block railway tracks in Devi Dasspura village near Amritsar in Punjab

MUNISH SHARMA / REUTERS

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 30-31 10/29/2020 11:51:47 AM

30 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 31

their landholdings to build economies of scale. Many of the 6,000 FPOs are non-functional, however. The Modi government has promised to increase the number of FPOs to around 10,000 in five years and has set aside Rs 5,000 crore to fund them. These FPOs will form value chain clusters and enter into agreements with private enterprises to invest in the entire production and marketing cycle.

Already, FPOs are proving to be highly effective in some states. In Nashik, Sahyadri Farms (SF), an FPO formed in 2010 with an initial investment of Rs 2 crore and a membership of 500 farmers, began by purchasing fruits and vegetables and then graduated to processing a wide range of fruit juices, sauces and jams. The FPO then established links with reputed retail chain operators across several cities besides opening its own retail shops. Within a decade, SF had increased its capital base to Rs 100 crore, expanded its network to 8,000 farmers and set up 6,000 tonnes of storage facilities for use. It is now one of India’s largest grape exporters. Its formula for success? “Sahya-dri provides infrastructure to even the smallest farmer to be part of the global supply value chain,” says chairman and man-aging director Vilas Shinde.

Many private corporate gi-ants have also demonstrated tremendous success while work-ing with Indian farmers. ITC’s e-Chaupal is one such shining example. Beginning in the early 2000s, it has now become the largest internet-based interven-tion service in rural India. It cov-ers over 4 million farmers that grow a diverse range of crops in over 35,000 villages across 10 states. With over 6,100 kiosks manned by sanchalaks, the company provides the farming community ready information on the weather and mar-ket prices, disseminates climate-smart sustainable farm practices, facilitates sale of farm inputs and purchases farm produce from the doorstep, saving transportation and handling costs. These are now regarded as world-class, new-age farm cooperatives, a cluster of whom produce the well-known Aashirvaad Atta brand. “The key for contract farming to work is reciprocal dependence between the farmer and business house,” says S. Sivakumar, who oversees ITC’s agri and IT businesses. He sees great opportunity for start-up companies to provide a range of solutions for FPOs, including market information, pricing, aggregations, logistics, counter-party risk insurance and bridge financing. It could also result in millions of jobs in rural areas.

Other corporates like Pepsico have also shown the way for Indian business. The company sources all its potatoes for its Lay’s brand of chips from Indian farmers across several states. It works with over 27,000 farmers, hand-holding them through the crop life-cycle, pro-

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

“SETTING UP A ‘LIGHTHOUSE’ CROPS VALUE

CHAIN WILL BE AN EXAMPLE FOR

EXPORTS. THE GOVT’S REFORMS

WILL LEAD TO NEXT-GEN AGRICULTURE”

— SANJIV PURI CMD, ITC

A BITTER HARVESTWhy is Punjab, a champion of the Green Revolution, one of the fiercest opponents of the new agriculture laws?

Being a champion of the Green Revolution, which made India self-sufficient in foodgrains production, Punjab is perhaps the last state one expected to revolt against the agriculture reforms passed by the Narendra Modi government. Yet, soon after the reforms became law, farmers were protesting across the state, even blocking trains from plying. The fierce protests even led to the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) break-ing its alliance with the NDA, with the SAD’s Harsimrat Kaur Badal resigning from the Union cabinet. Soon after, Punjab chief min-ister Captain Amarinder Singh summoned the state legislative assembly, and a bill to bring about state-specific amendments to the new central laws was passed unanimously. Essentially, these amendments restored the status quo ante and imposed harsher punishments for violators.

Development expert Pramod Kumar believes that the agitation was triggered by apprehensions

not based on fact but on fears that the new laws set the stage to do away with the APMC (Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee) system, procurement and MSPs (minimum support prices). The Modi government has repeatedly said that this would not happen, and that the intent behind the new laws was to give farmers an alternative system of market-ing. However, Punjab remained unconvinced, demanding that MSPs—which are an administra-tive policy, not a law—be given a legal footing. When the Centre refused to acquiesce, the state assembly passed a resolution to make it so, even decreeing that agricultural trade was to be con-ducted only through the APMCs.

Some say that a major reason for the apprehension is that the state has become dependent on the MSP system. Punjab benefits massively from central procure-ment—the state accounts for 30 per cent of the wheat procure-ment and a tenth of rice procure-ment. The state’s farmers enjoy significant government support—free power, subsidised fertilis-ers, credit subvention and an assured sale of their produce. As a result, despite the water tables dropping precipitously in Punjab

because of rice cultivation, it is in the interest of the state’s farm-ers to continue to grow this crop year after year. It is also in the arthiyas’ interest that status quo prevail, because with the FCI buying most of the state’s wheat, they could rake in commissions without much effort. And it is in the interest of the state because it earns over Rs 3,500 crore annu-ally from market fees and levies.

Experts say both the Centre and the state are at fault for creat-ing the crisis. They say that before passing the reforms, the Centre should have addressed the appre-hensions the state’s farmers had, particularly because farmers see these laws as a ploy to gradually

do away with all input subsidies and even the MSP system. Some argue that the Modi government is working towards ul-timately giving farmers cash incentives through the DBT (direct benefit transfer) scheme rather than through input sub-sidies. Many also say that if the Centre wanted Punjab’s farmers to diversify to other crops, it should have drawn up and funded a plan to compensate farmers for not growing wheat or rice in water-stressed areas, as neighbouring Haryana has been doing.

They also argue that the state gov-ernment should draw up a blueprint for change, including an agro-processing plan for the new crops that it would in-centivise farmers to switch to. Ultimately, it is in Punjab’s interest to move towards a cash-based subsidy system rather than an input-centred one. They say that Pun-jab should, in fact, be leading the way for Farm Revolution 2.0 rather than blocking its path. However, the onus is also on the Centre to ensure that Punjab has all the help it needs to benefit from the reform process. After all, it was Punjab’s farmers who were instrumental in giving India her food security. Farmers deserve our gratitude and respect, and we should win them over rather than entering into a debilitating confrontation with them. n

SOME SAY THE CORE REASON FOR THE PROTESTS IS THAT PUNJAB, AS A MAJOR BENEFICIARY, HAS BECOME DEPENDENT ON THE MSP SYSTEM

PUNJA B PRO T ES T S

BDOWN WITH FARM BILLS Protesting farmers block railway tracks in Devi Dasspura village near Amritsar in Punjab

MUNISH SHARMA / REUTERS

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 30-31 10/29/2020 11:51:47 AM

32 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 3 3

viding best quality seeds by growing them, distributing them to their farmers and as-suring them a buy-back price even if there is a glut or providing an insurance cover to tide over failures. The company’s retention rate of farmers contracting with them is a high 98 per cent. Among the reasons is that the rates it pays farmers for their produce is higher than the MSP. Pepsico has even sub-contracted cold storages to ensure a steady supply of potatoes even in the lean season keeping it asset light and creating new business opportunities for the logistics support centre.

MAKING INDIA FOOD BASKET OF THE WORLD There are three major shifts in global agri-culture trends that could provide the much-needed ballast for India’s farm revolution 2.0. Prof. Vijay Paul Sharma, chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), says the biggest driver is a spike in consumer demand for high-value food items, including for healthy products, in the country and elsewhere in the world. Other experts point to the changing geopolitical equations, with many countries rethinking their dependence on China, or others renewing their quest for food security. So, making Indian agriculture export-competitive is key not only to ex-ploit domestic surpluses but also to boost farmers’ incomes and provide a range of agro-based employment.

Sadly, agricultural exports have been an area of gross neglect. Despite being world leaders in several categories of agricultural produce, India’s agriculture exports of $38.7 bil-lion (Rs 2.9 lakh crore) account for just 7 per cent of its total production and have stagnated over the past five years. The Modi government has now set a target to boost agro exports to $100 billion (Rs 7.4 lakh crore) in the next five years.

Yet that target will remain a pipe dream if the govern-ment doesn’t revamp the currently dismal agriculture infra-structure in the country. Just one example of the mismatch: in the past decade, India has set up almost 90 per cent of its requirement for cold storages. But the rest of the cold chain components remain in a state of utter neglect. Trucks with refrigerated containers (reefers) were short by as much as 85 per cent. We barely had 10 per cent of the ripening units in place and virtually no integrated packhouses to meet the demand. Worse, there was no last-mile connectivity, with most retail outlets not equipped with cold storage facilities. A similar story dogs mega food parks. For over a decade now, the central government has sanctioned 42 such parks in the country to serve as centres of food processing and exports. Yet, as of this June, only 20 were operational and a couple more were to be commissioned. The reasons included ma-

jor delays in land acquisition, sub-lease issues and logistics. The Modi govern-ment has announced that it will spend Rs 1 lakh crore to set up world-class agri infrastructure to hasten reforms, but it must ensure that this is executed rapidly.

Private investment remains key to development but so far accounts for only two per cent of the total investment in agriculture. The central government had announced that it is permitting 100 per cent FDI under the automatic route for food processing industries, for the man-ufacture of food products and for trad-ing. But it is not enough. Other measures could include deepening the commodity derivatives markets to enable farmers to discover prices before planting crops. This would encourage demand-driven

crop production rather than the current supply-based output.

FOR INDIA TO BECOME the food basket of the world, the export market needs to be more systematically targeted to bring in investment, encourage innova-tion and ensure best practices. Vietnam increased its agricultural GDP fourfold in the past two decades by

focusing on developing the five value chains of rice, coffee, cashew, fish and pepper as geographic clusters. It made them globally competitive by attracting FDI and private sector participation through strong infrastructure and incentives. The country negotiated its free trade agreements with ASE-AN and China to ensure that its export lines were pushed.

A high-level expert group (HLEG), formed by the 15th Finance Commission, has recently presented a blueprint for boosting exports in which it has identified 22 crop value chains that the Indian government could promote. It calls for prioritising seven “lighthouse” crop value-chains that it says will be a must-win for India. These include rice, shrimp, spices, buffalo, fruits and vegetables, vegetable oils and wood. These value chains need to be set up on an end-to-end basis from inputs, logistics, infrastructure and processing to mar-kets. Steps have to be taken to improve farm productivity, cost efficiency, price competitiveness and negotiating favour-able terms of trade for exports with identified importing nations. Says ITC chairman and managing director Sanjiv Puri, “We are hopeful that these lighthouse crops would set an example for the rest. For that, the state and central govern-ments should incentivise value-chain stakeholders appropri-ately and ensure that the projects are financially viable and executed well. The path-breaking reforms announced by the central government will lead to such next-gen agriculture.”

Even as the export push begins, we need to rapidly de-velop self-sufficiency in foodstuffs we import, particularly

oilseeds. India is now the world’s largest importer of edible oil, with close to 70 per cent of its domestic demand being met through Rs 60,000 crore worth of imports. Of this, palm oil constitutes around 80 per cent. Between 1985 and 1994, the so-called Yellow Revolution that encouraged the growth of high-yielding oilseeds saw imports drop to less than 3 per cent. But, since then, India gradually liberalised edible oil imports leading to a steady dent in oil-seeds cultivation. It is imperative that India develop cheaper substitutes like rice bran oil or launch a mission to grow high-yielding palm trees within the country to produce palm oil as cheaply as Indonesia and Malaysia.

Both the central and state govern-ments are also guilty of controlling agricultural prices to protect consumers when there is scarcity, at times to the det-riment of farmers. Sugarcane production is a good example of how the government stranglehold over the industry has led to enormous distortions and left them deprived of reform. The government continues to fix what is called a Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) which ensures the farmer gets 60-70 per cent higher returns compared to other crops. It then mandates that sugar mills buy sugarcane from farmers in a specified radius. Besides the FRP, some states also fix a State Advised Price. The central government also fixes a minimum selling price for sugar to ensure that consumers do not have to pay a higher price. The result is that sugar mills have been left in a distressed state with sugarcane arrears accumulat-ing to Rs 20,000 crore in the past two seasons. The cost

of producing sugar in India is at least 30 per cent higher than international prices, foreclosing export possibilities. The government provided some relief by promoting ethanol produced from sugarcane molasses to be blended with auto fuel. Tarun Sawhney, vice chairman and managing director, Triveni Group, says, “The ecosystem needs to be given a boost for us to have a sustainable future.”

The government needs to “spell out a roadmap of where it wants re-forms to lead to in the next 10 years”, says former agriculture secretary Siraj Hussain. To PM Modi’s credit, he has in the past six years system-atically worked towards transform-ing Indian farming: from ensuring

that MNREGA projects are asset-based to providing cash transfers to farmers under DBT. He has also pushed for providing incentives to save water, taken action to prevent diversion of subsidised fertilisers by having them coated with neem, introduced soil health cards and set up eNAM, an online agri trading platform. For rural development, his emphasis has been to build roads, housing, electrification, sanitation and tapped drinking water for all. “The new agri reforms will provide farmers with market freedom, encour-age entrepreneurship and access to technology. It will lead to a big transformation of agriculture,” says Dr P.K. Mishra, principal secretary to the PM. Now, the Modi government needs to focus its energies and resources on ensuring a great leap in farmer prosperity. After all, the livelihood and well-being of over 70 per cent of India depends on these reforms. n

“FREEING FARMERS FROM APMC SHACKLES

IN BIHAR CERTAINLY HELPED. THEY NO

LONGER DEPEND ON THE MSP TO SELL THEIR

PRODUCE AND GET A BETTER PRICE”

— N. SARAVANA KUMARAgriculture Secretary, Bihar

“WE WELCOME THE FARM BILLS. BUT

SINCE FARMERS ARE A WEAKER ENTITY,

WE WANT CHANGES IN THEM TO MAXIMISE

BENEFIT AND REMOVE ANY DISADVANTAGES”

ASHWANI MAHAJANCo-convenor, SJM

FRUITFUL ENTERPRISE Sweet lime auction at Kalamna market in Nagpur

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

SH

EKH

AR

SO

NI

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 32-33 10/29/2020 11:52:07 AM

32 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 3 3

viding best quality seeds by growing them, distributing them to their farmers and as-suring them a buy-back price even if there is a glut or providing an insurance cover to tide over failures. The company’s retention rate of farmers contracting with them is a high 98 per cent. Among the reasons is that the rates it pays farmers for their produce is higher than the MSP. Pepsico has even sub-contracted cold storages to ensure a steady supply of potatoes even in the lean season keeping it asset light and creating new business opportunities for the logistics support centre.

MAKING INDIA FOOD BASKET OF THE WORLD There are three major shifts in global agri-culture trends that could provide the much-needed ballast for India’s farm revolution 2.0. Prof. Vijay Paul Sharma, chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), says the biggest driver is a spike in consumer demand for high-value food items, including for healthy products, in the country and elsewhere in the world. Other experts point to the changing geopolitical equations, with many countries rethinking their dependence on China, or others renewing their quest for food security. So, making Indian agriculture export-competitive is key not only to ex-ploit domestic surpluses but also to boost farmers’ incomes and provide a range of agro-based employment.

Sadly, agricultural exports have been an area of gross neglect. Despite being world leaders in several categories of agricultural produce, India’s agriculture exports of $38.7 bil-lion (Rs 2.9 lakh crore) account for just 7 per cent of its total production and have stagnated over the past five years. The Modi government has now set a target to boost agro exports to $100 billion (Rs 7.4 lakh crore) in the next five years.

Yet that target will remain a pipe dream if the govern-ment doesn’t revamp the currently dismal agriculture infra-structure in the country. Just one example of the mismatch: in the past decade, India has set up almost 90 per cent of its requirement for cold storages. But the rest of the cold chain components remain in a state of utter neglect. Trucks with refrigerated containers (reefers) were short by as much as 85 per cent. We barely had 10 per cent of the ripening units in place and virtually no integrated packhouses to meet the demand. Worse, there was no last-mile connectivity, with most retail outlets not equipped with cold storage facilities. A similar story dogs mega food parks. For over a decade now, the central government has sanctioned 42 such parks in the country to serve as centres of food processing and exports. Yet, as of this June, only 20 were operational and a couple more were to be commissioned. The reasons included ma-

jor delays in land acquisition, sub-lease issues and logistics. The Modi govern-ment has announced that it will spend Rs 1 lakh crore to set up world-class agri infrastructure to hasten reforms, but it must ensure that this is executed rapidly.

Private investment remains key to development but so far accounts for only two per cent of the total investment in agriculture. The central government had announced that it is permitting 100 per cent FDI under the automatic route for food processing industries, for the man-ufacture of food products and for trad-ing. But it is not enough. Other measures could include deepening the commodity derivatives markets to enable farmers to discover prices before planting crops. This would encourage demand-driven

crop production rather than the current supply-based output.

FOR INDIA TO BECOME the food basket of the world, the export market needs to be more systematically targeted to bring in investment, encourage innova-tion and ensure best practices. Vietnam increased its agricultural GDP fourfold in the past two decades by

focusing on developing the five value chains of rice, coffee, cashew, fish and pepper as geographic clusters. It made them globally competitive by attracting FDI and private sector participation through strong infrastructure and incentives. The country negotiated its free trade agreements with ASE-AN and China to ensure that its export lines were pushed.

A high-level expert group (HLEG), formed by the 15th Finance Commission, has recently presented a blueprint for boosting exports in which it has identified 22 crop value chains that the Indian government could promote. It calls for prioritising seven “lighthouse” crop value-chains that it says will be a must-win for India. These include rice, shrimp, spices, buffalo, fruits and vegetables, vegetable oils and wood. These value chains need to be set up on an end-to-end basis from inputs, logistics, infrastructure and processing to mar-kets. Steps have to be taken to improve farm productivity, cost efficiency, price competitiveness and negotiating favour-able terms of trade for exports with identified importing nations. Says ITC chairman and managing director Sanjiv Puri, “We are hopeful that these lighthouse crops would set an example for the rest. For that, the state and central govern-ments should incentivise value-chain stakeholders appropri-ately and ensure that the projects are financially viable and executed well. The path-breaking reforms announced by the central government will lead to such next-gen agriculture.”

Even as the export push begins, we need to rapidly de-velop self-sufficiency in foodstuffs we import, particularly

oilseeds. India is now the world’s largest importer of edible oil, with close to 70 per cent of its domestic demand being met through Rs 60,000 crore worth of imports. Of this, palm oil constitutes around 80 per cent. Between 1985 and 1994, the so-called Yellow Revolution that encouraged the growth of high-yielding oilseeds saw imports drop to less than 3 per cent. But, since then, India gradually liberalised edible oil imports leading to a steady dent in oil-seeds cultivation. It is imperative that India develop cheaper substitutes like rice bran oil or launch a mission to grow high-yielding palm trees within the country to produce palm oil as cheaply as Indonesia and Malaysia.

Both the central and state govern-ments are also guilty of controlling agricultural prices to protect consumers when there is scarcity, at times to the det-riment of farmers. Sugarcane production is a good example of how the government stranglehold over the industry has led to enormous distortions and left them deprived of reform. The government continues to fix what is called a Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) which ensures the farmer gets 60-70 per cent higher returns compared to other crops. It then mandates that sugar mills buy sugarcane from farmers in a specified radius. Besides the FRP, some states also fix a State Advised Price. The central government also fixes a minimum selling price for sugar to ensure that consumers do not have to pay a higher price. The result is that sugar mills have been left in a distressed state with sugarcane arrears accumulat-ing to Rs 20,000 crore in the past two seasons. The cost

of producing sugar in India is at least 30 per cent higher than international prices, foreclosing export possibilities. The government provided some relief by promoting ethanol produced from sugarcane molasses to be blended with auto fuel. Tarun Sawhney, vice chairman and managing director, Triveni Group, says, “The ecosystem needs to be given a boost for us to have a sustainable future.”

The government needs to “spell out a roadmap of where it wants re-forms to lead to in the next 10 years”, says former agriculture secretary Siraj Hussain. To PM Modi’s credit, he has in the past six years system-atically worked towards transform-ing Indian farming: from ensuring

that MNREGA projects are asset-based to providing cash transfers to farmers under DBT. He has also pushed for providing incentives to save water, taken action to prevent diversion of subsidised fertilisers by having them coated with neem, introduced soil health cards and set up eNAM, an online agri trading platform. For rural development, his emphasis has been to build roads, housing, electrification, sanitation and tapped drinking water for all. “The new agri reforms will provide farmers with market freedom, encour-age entrepreneurship and access to technology. It will lead to a big transformation of agriculture,” says Dr P.K. Mishra, principal secretary to the PM. Now, the Modi government needs to focus its energies and resources on ensuring a great leap in farmer prosperity. After all, the livelihood and well-being of over 70 per cent of India depends on these reforms. n

“FREEING FARMERS FROM APMC SHACKLES

IN BIHAR CERTAINLY HELPED. THEY NO

LONGER DEPEND ON THE MSP TO SELL THEIR

PRODUCE AND GET A BETTER PRICE”

— N. SARAVANA KUMARAgriculture Secretary, Bihar

“WE WELCOME THE FARM BILLS. BUT

SINCE FARMERS ARE A WEAKER ENTITY,

WE WANT CHANGES IN THEM TO MAXIMISE

BENEFIT AND REMOVE ANY DISADVANTAGES”

ASHWANI MAHAJANCo-convenor, SJM

FRUITFUL ENTERPRISE Sweet lime auction at Kalamna market in Nagpur

C OV ER S T ORY

AGRICULTURE

SH

EKH

AR

SO

NI

CS-Agriculture-Nov9.indd 32-33 10/29/2020 11:52:07 AM

3 4 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020

TAKING THE LEAD

S P E C I A L R E P O R T : P R I YA N K A G A N D H I

B Y K A U S H I K D E K A

Come Diwali and Priyanka plans to

make UP her home and battleground in an effort

to create a template for Congress revival

THE END OF DIWALI, as winter begins to set in on the plains, Congress gen-eral secretary Priyanka Gandhi plans to move base to Lucknow, capital of the state she is in charge of: Uttar Pradesh. In anticipation of her arriv-al, the state Congress headquarters is being spruced up, in time for the party’s December 28 Foundation Day. It will also be the day the young-er Gandhi scion will be launching the party’s campaign for the 2022 assembly election in UP.

Priyanka has been working towards this end ever since she for-mally joined politics in January 2019. The 48-year-old has made UP her battleground, from where she hopes to initiate the Congress’s revival. She aims to make the party a fighting force in the state in time for the 2022 assembly election. In the process, she wants UP to become the template for other Congress general secretaries to emulate in their states.

Things did not start auspicious-ly, though. Her very first press con-ference, scheduled for February 14, 2019, had to be called off after a ter-ror attack killed 40 CRPF soldiers in Pulwama in Kashmir. It was never

rescheduled. Despite her whirlwind campaign in the run-up to the 2019 general election, she could not res-cue the Congress from a crushing defeat in the state. The party won just one of UP’s 80 seats—Sonia Gandhi in Raebareli—and suffered

ATROADBLOCK At the DND flyway while going to Hathras on October 1

AFP

THE PRIYANKA WORKBOOK

High visibility whenever there is a case of atrocity

against the underprivileged, and display of empathy

Has left her personal mobile number with nearly 5,000 work-

ers who provide her ground feedback

Equally vocal on social media, mounting an almost daily attack on the UP government on

Twitter, expressed in Hindi

Accessible to party workers, some of whom can contact her

directly. They can also meet her without an appointment when-

ever she visits the state

Devotes 8-10 hours daily to party work. Has been holding

5-6 video meetings even during the pandemic

A LOSING HAND

ASSEMBLY

94

27.9%

1989

1991

1993

1996

2002

2007

2012

2017

17.3%

15.1%

8.3% 9% 8.6%11.7%

6.3%

4628 33 25 22 28

7

2004

2009

2014

2019

12%

18.3%

7.5%6.3%

9

21

2 1

LOK SABHA

The Congress had long ceased to be a force in UP; the rise of Narendra Modi spelt its complete nadir

SeatsVote share

Priyanka-Nov9.indd 34-35 10/29/2020 12:10:52 AM

3 4 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020

TAKING THE LEAD

S P E C I A L R E P O R T : P R I YA N K A G A N D H I

B Y K A U S H I K D E K A

Come Diwali and Priyanka plans to

make UP her home and battleground in an effort

to create a template for Congress revival

THE END OF DIWALI, as winter begins to set in on the plains, Congress gen-eral secretary Priyanka Gandhi plans to move base to Lucknow, capital of the state she is in charge of: Uttar Pradesh. In anticipation of her arriv-al, the state Congress headquarters is being spruced up, in time for the party’s December 28 Foundation Day. It will also be the day the young-er Gandhi scion will be launching the party’s campaign for the 2022 assembly election in UP.

Priyanka has been working towards this end ever since she for-mally joined politics in January 2019. The 48-year-old has made UP her battleground, from where she hopes to initiate the Congress’s revival. She aims to make the party a fighting force in the state in time for the 2022 assembly election. In the process, she wants UP to become the template for other Congress general secretaries to emulate in their states.

Things did not start auspicious-ly, though. Her very first press con-ference, scheduled for February 14, 2019, had to be called off after a ter-ror attack killed 40 CRPF soldiers in Pulwama in Kashmir. It was never

rescheduled. Despite her whirlwind campaign in the run-up to the 2019 general election, she could not res-cue the Congress from a crushing defeat in the state. The party won just one of UP’s 80 seats—Sonia Gandhi in Raebareli—and suffered

ATROADBLOCK At the DND flyway while going to Hathras on October 1

AFP

THE PRIYANKA WORKBOOK

High visibility whenever there is a case of atrocity

against the underprivileged, and display of empathy

Has left her personal mobile number with nearly 5,000 work-

ers who provide her ground feedback

Equally vocal on social media, mounting an almost daily attack on the UP government on

Twitter, expressed in Hindi

Accessible to party workers, some of whom can contact her

directly. They can also meet her without an appointment when-

ever she visits the state

Devotes 8-10 hours daily to party work. Has been holding

5-6 video meetings even during the pandemic

A LOSING HAND

ASSEMBLY

94

27.9%

1989

1991

1993

1996

2002

2007

2012

2017

17.3%

15.1%

8.3% 9% 8.6%11.7%

6.3%

4628 33 25 22 28

7

2004

2009

2014

2019

12%

18.3%

7.5%6.3%

9

21

2 1

LOK SABHA

The Congress had long ceased to be a force in UP; the rise of Narendra Modi spelt its complete nadir

SeatsVote share

Priyanka-Nov9.indd 34-35 10/29/2020 12:10:52 AM

36 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 37

often in Hindi, so that her message can reach a wider audience. The ruling dis­pensation can dismiss the Gandhis all they like, but it cannot ignore them. Anything that Priyanka Gandhi says or does makes news.

THE CHALLENGES AHEADHowever, grabbing headlines and occu­pying mind space is one thing, con­verting it into electoral success quite another. The Congress has been in com­plete political wilderness in UP for the past three decades now, unable to challe­nge the Ram temple movement­fuelled dominance of the BJP in the 1990s, or of the BSP and SP after the state was divided in the year 2000 (see A Losing Hand). However, its performance rea­ched a complete nadir foll owing the rise of Narendra Modi. It won two of UP’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, and just when one thought things couldn’t get worse, Rahul Gandhi lost Amethi in 2019, reducing the Congress tally in the state to one. In 2017, it managed to win just seven of the 403 seats in the assembly election it fought with the SP.

The party’s vote share in both the 2017 assembly election and the Lok Sabha poll stood reduced to 6.3 per cent.

The state party organisation is also in shambles, appearing worse still given the BJP’s well­oiled poll machinery. It also lacks any caste or community sup­port base except for the Muslim vote, which is split between Congress and SP. The BJP, on the other hand, has been able to extend its reach bey ond its tra­ditional Brahmin support base, target­ing OBCs besides Yadavs (who are with SP) and Dalits other than Jatavs (who are BSP supporters). The SC vote was crucial in propelling the party to power in both the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections in UP, as well as in the 2017 assembly poll. More than a third, or 34 per cent, voted for the BJP in 2019, according to a study by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

Nor does the Congress have any allies to partner with at this point. Akhilesh Yadav has already burnt his fingers by allying with Rahul Gandhi the last time and BSP supremo Mayawati remains cold to the Congress. There is also the heightened Hindutva sentiment in favour of the BJP for facilitating the con­struction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi for participating in the stone­laying founda­tion ceremony on August 5 this year.

These are limitations Team Priyanka is well aware of. “With the face and fight­ing spirit of Priyanka Gandhi and a fierce and indomitable state president in Lallu,

it’s not difficult to be part of the public discourse,” says her private secretary Sandeep. “But to convert it into votes, the party needs organisational machinery.” And what better than to take a leaf out of the BJP playbook in that endeavour.

OPERATION REVAMPAs a first step, Priyanka is attempting to build the organisation from the bot­tom upwards. From August 10, the party began the Sangathan Srijan Abhiyan, an organisation­building campaign aimed at constituting committees for all 830 blocks of UP. In the 45­day Phase I, 640 meetings were held at the block level to set off the process of electing the block Congress president and forming com­mittees. Phase II started from October 2 onward to form village committees in the state’s 60,000 villages by December 2.

A year earlier, in August 19, Priyanka had kickstarted the process of selecting presidents for each district and city. Six All India Congress Committee secretar­ies from other states were sent to all UP districts to find suitable candidates for the posts. Applications were sought via local dailies and social media, 300­400 applicants vetted for their credentials, of which 10 candidates were eventually recommended for each district and city.

Priyanka then met these 1,500 can­didates in Delhi, Lucknow and Raebareli and shortlisted three names for every post, following which she solicited sug­gestions from secretaries, former MPs, MLAs and senior leaders on the names. She also met all the district presidents she was going to replace and told them why changes were being made. In November 2019, she released the first list of district presidents; the exercise for appointing district and city presidents and forming district and city committees was com­pleted in the subsequent months. “The maximum number for these commit­tees is 35 and minimum 21. So around 5,000 people across the state have been made office­bearers at the district and city level,” says Priyanka’s aide.

Simultaneously, she began the process of streamlining and reorgan­ising the overweight state Congress

the humiliation of losing family pocket borough Amethi.

This year, the rumblings within the party have grown only stronger, with Jyo tiraditya Scindia’s exit in March, Sachin Pilot’s revolt in July and a let­ter by 23 Congress leaders in August to party president Sonia Gandhi urging for a more “visible, available leadership” and an organisational overhaul of the party.

Weathering all this turbulence, Priyanka has been diligently charting her own course. She has been increas­ingly vocal on the burning issues of the day, particularly in UP, most recently on the Hathras gang­rape and murder of a 19­year­old Dalit girl. She was seen grappling with policemen when an entire phalanx of them tried to stop her entou­rage from going to Hathras, jumping out of the car to protect partymen, among them former Congress MP Kamal Kishor ‘Commando’, who happened to be her father Rajiv Gandhi’s bodyguard, from the raining blows of the policemen’s lathis. She was back again two days later, taking the wheel of the car on the drive from Delhi to Hathras when the driver of their car got scared seeing the crowds.

In May, she took up the cause of the migrants stuck in the Covid lock­down, offering UP chief minis­

ter Yogi Adityanath 1,000 buses to get migrant labour home to UP. It’s a diff­erent matter that the state government eventually rejected the offer, alleging that the list of 1,000 buses contained registra­tion numbers of autorickshaws, cars and trucks, and that some of the buses did not have valid fitness certificates or insurance papers. The UP police even booked UP Congress president Ajay Kumar Lallu and Priyanka Gandhi’s private secretary Sandeep Singh for the faulty list.

But it won the Congress appreciation from grateful migrants, 34 of whom went on to join the party, as a source close to Priyanka claims. “Congress leaders were the only ones who took care of us during the lockdown,” says Anup Tiwari, 25, who was among the many migrants brought back to UP from Gujarat, Maharashtra and Punjab in 11 trains organised and

paid for by Congress. Tiwari, who used to sell tea on trains between Valsad and Surat in Gujarat before the Covid lock­down left him and his pregnant wife stranded in Gujarat, is now putting to use his childhood passion of writing poetry for Congress’s social media cam­paign. “I was given Rs 1,800 and reached my village. Lalluji came home and I met Priyankaji in Lucknow,” says Tiwari from his village Gonda in UP.

Be it atrocities on Dalits or protests against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, Priyanka has reacted with empathy and spontaneity. She sat on a dharna with the aggrieved families of the 10 peo­ple, including three women, who were killed on July 17, 2019 after a village head and his supporters opened fire on tribal farmers over a land dispute in Ubha vil­lage of Sonbhadra district. In December 2019, she visited the family of the young rape victim who was set ablaze in Unnao. She also took the Yogi government to task over the involvement of BJP MLA Kuldeep Sengar, who stands accused in another rape case in Unnao. At Hathras, she did not think twice before reaching out to embrace the grieving family of the Hathras victim. In December last year, she chose to ride pillion on a scooter in Lucknow to meet the wife of retired IPS officer S.R. Darapuri, who had been arrested during the anti­CAA protests.

Simultaneously, she has kept up the pressure on the Yogi Adityanath gov­ernment through her constant pres­ence on social media. Her tweets are

THE BUILDING BLOCKSHow Priyanka is revamping the party infrastructure in UP

In August 2019, she sent six AICC secretaries to all districts in the state to scout for prospective candidates for district and city Congress presidents

In the next three months, she met these 1,500 candi-dates in Delhi, Lucknow and Raebareli and shortlisted three names for every post

She then sought sugges-tions on the names from sec-retaries, former MPs, MLAs and senior leaders

She also met all the district presidents she was going to remove and explained why changes were being made

In November 2019, she released the first list of dis-trict presidents, setting in motion the exercise of appointing district and city presidents and forming dis-trict and city committees

Downsized the state Congress committee from over 500 members to 50 and gave each member specific responsibility. For instance, every secretary was given charge of two districts

After restructuring the state committee, various departments and wings of the PCC were formed

From August 10, the party began the Sangathan Srijan Abhiyan, an organisation-building campaign tasked with setting up block committees for all 830 blocks in UP. The second phase started from October 2 with the objective of forming village committees in the 60,000 villages of the state by December 2

S P E C I A L R E P O R T P R I YA N K A G A N D H I

PRIYANKA’S STRATEGY INCLUDES BEING MORE VISIBLE, WHILE KEEPING UP THE PRESSURE ON THE YOGI GOVERNMENT

MANEESH AGNIHOTRI

HOLY STOPOVER At Hanumangarhi temple in Ayodhya on March 29

Priyanka-Nov9.indd 36-37 10/29/2020 12:11:12 AM

36 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 37

often in Hindi, so that her message can reach a wider audience. The ruling dis­pensation can dismiss the Gandhis all they like, but it cannot ignore them. Anything that Priyanka Gandhi says or does makes news.

THE CHALLENGES AHEADHowever, grabbing headlines and occu­pying mind space is one thing, con­verting it into electoral success quite another. The Congress has been in com­plete political wilderness in UP for the past three decades now, unable to challe­nge the Ram temple movement­fuelled dominance of the BJP in the 1990s, or of the BSP and SP after the state was divided in the year 2000 (see A Losing Hand). However, its performance rea­ched a complete nadir foll owing the rise of Narendra Modi. It won two of UP’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, and just when one thought things couldn’t get worse, Rahul Gandhi lost Amethi in 2019, reducing the Congress tally in the state to one. In 2017, it managed to win just seven of the 403 seats in the assembly election it fought with the SP.

The party’s vote share in both the 2017 assembly election and the Lok Sabha poll stood reduced to 6.3 per cent.

The state party organisation is also in shambles, appearing worse still given the BJP’s well­oiled poll machinery. It also lacks any caste or community sup­port base except for the Muslim vote, which is split between Congress and SP. The BJP, on the other hand, has been able to extend its reach bey ond its tra­ditional Brahmin support base, target­ing OBCs besides Yadavs (who are with SP) and Dalits other than Jatavs (who are BSP supporters). The SC vote was crucial in propelling the party to power in both the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections in UP, as well as in the 2017 assembly poll. More than a third, or 34 per cent, voted for the BJP in 2019, according to a study by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies.

Nor does the Congress have any allies to partner with at this point. Akhilesh Yadav has already burnt his fingers by allying with Rahul Gandhi the last time and BSP supremo Mayawati remains cold to the Congress. There is also the heightened Hindutva sentiment in favour of the BJP for facilitating the con­struction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi for participating in the stone­laying founda­tion ceremony on August 5 this year.

These are limitations Team Priyanka is well aware of. “With the face and fight­ing spirit of Priyanka Gandhi and a fierce and indomitable state president in Lallu,

it’s not difficult to be part of the public discourse,” says her private secretary Sandeep. “But to convert it into votes, the party needs organisational machinery.” And what better than to take a leaf out of the BJP playbook in that endeavour.

OPERATION REVAMPAs a first step, Priyanka is attempting to build the organisation from the bot­tom upwards. From August 10, the party began the Sangathan Srijan Abhiyan, an organisation­building campaign aimed at constituting committees for all 830 blocks of UP. In the 45­day Phase I, 640 meetings were held at the block level to set off the process of electing the block Congress president and forming com­mittees. Phase II started from October 2 onward to form village committees in the state’s 60,000 villages by December 2.

A year earlier, in August 19, Priyanka had kickstarted the process of selecting presidents for each district and city. Six All India Congress Committee secretar­ies from other states were sent to all UP districts to find suitable candidates for the posts. Applications were sought via local dailies and social media, 300­400 applicants vetted for their credentials, of which 10 candidates were eventually recommended for each district and city.

Priyanka then met these 1,500 can­didates in Delhi, Lucknow and Raebareli and shortlisted three names for every post, following which she solicited sug­gestions from secretaries, former MPs, MLAs and senior leaders on the names. She also met all the district presidents she was going to replace and told them why changes were being made. In November 2019, she released the first list of district presidents; the exercise for appointing district and city presidents and forming district and city committees was com­pleted in the subsequent months. “The maximum number for these commit­tees is 35 and minimum 21. So around 5,000 people across the state have been made office­bearers at the district and city level,” says Priyanka’s aide.

Simultaneously, she began the process of streamlining and reorgan­ising the overweight state Congress

the humiliation of losing family pocket borough Amethi.

This year, the rumblings within the party have grown only stronger, with Jyo tiraditya Scindia’s exit in March, Sachin Pilot’s revolt in July and a let­ter by 23 Congress leaders in August to party president Sonia Gandhi urging for a more “visible, available leadership” and an organisational overhaul of the party.

Weathering all this turbulence, Priyanka has been diligently charting her own course. She has been increas­ingly vocal on the burning issues of the day, particularly in UP, most recently on the Hathras gang­rape and murder of a 19­year­old Dalit girl. She was seen grappling with policemen when an entire phalanx of them tried to stop her entou­rage from going to Hathras, jumping out of the car to protect partymen, among them former Congress MP Kamal Kishor ‘Commando’, who happened to be her father Rajiv Gandhi’s bodyguard, from the raining blows of the policemen’s lathis. She was back again two days later, taking the wheel of the car on the drive from Delhi to Hathras when the driver of their car got scared seeing the crowds.

In May, she took up the cause of the migrants stuck in the Covid lock­down, offering UP chief minis­

ter Yogi Adityanath 1,000 buses to get migrant labour home to UP. It’s a diff­erent matter that the state government eventually rejected the offer, alleging that the list of 1,000 buses contained registra­tion numbers of autorickshaws, cars and trucks, and that some of the buses did not have valid fitness certificates or insurance papers. The UP police even booked UP Congress president Ajay Kumar Lallu and Priyanka Gandhi’s private secretary Sandeep Singh for the faulty list.

But it won the Congress appreciation from grateful migrants, 34 of whom went on to join the party, as a source close to Priyanka claims. “Congress leaders were the only ones who took care of us during the lockdown,” says Anup Tiwari, 25, who was among the many migrants brought back to UP from Gujarat, Maharashtra and Punjab in 11 trains organised and

paid for by Congress. Tiwari, who used to sell tea on trains between Valsad and Surat in Gujarat before the Covid lock­down left him and his pregnant wife stranded in Gujarat, is now putting to use his childhood passion of writing poetry for Congress’s social media cam­paign. “I was given Rs 1,800 and reached my village. Lalluji came home and I met Priyankaji in Lucknow,” says Tiwari from his village Gonda in UP.

Be it atrocities on Dalits or protests against the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, Priyanka has reacted with empathy and spontaneity. She sat on a dharna with the aggrieved families of the 10 peo­ple, including three women, who were killed on July 17, 2019 after a village head and his supporters opened fire on tribal farmers over a land dispute in Ubha vil­lage of Sonbhadra district. In December 2019, she visited the family of the young rape victim who was set ablaze in Unnao. She also took the Yogi government to task over the involvement of BJP MLA Kuldeep Sengar, who stands accused in another rape case in Unnao. At Hathras, she did not think twice before reaching out to embrace the grieving family of the Hathras victim. In December last year, she chose to ride pillion on a scooter in Lucknow to meet the wife of retired IPS officer S.R. Darapuri, who had been arrested during the anti­CAA protests.

Simultaneously, she has kept up the pressure on the Yogi Adityanath gov­ernment through her constant pres­ence on social media. Her tweets are

THE BUILDING BLOCKSHow Priyanka is revamping the party infrastructure in UP

In August 2019, she sent six AICC secretaries to all districts in the state to scout for prospective candidates for district and city Congress presidents

In the next three months, she met these 1,500 candi-dates in Delhi, Lucknow and Raebareli and shortlisted three names for every post

She then sought sugges-tions on the names from sec-retaries, former MPs, MLAs and senior leaders

She also met all the district presidents she was going to remove and explained why changes were being made

In November 2019, she released the first list of dis-trict presidents, setting in motion the exercise of appointing district and city presidents and forming dis-trict and city committees

Downsized the state Congress committee from over 500 members to 50 and gave each member specific responsibility. For instance, every secretary was given charge of two districts

After restructuring the state committee, various departments and wings of the PCC were formed

From August 10, the party began the Sangathan Srijan Abhiyan, an organisation-building campaign tasked with setting up block committees for all 830 blocks in UP. The second phase started from October 2 with the objective of forming village committees in the 60,000 villages of the state by December 2

S P E C I A L R E P O R T P R I YA N K A G A N D H I

PRIYANKA’S STRATEGY INCLUDES BEING MORE VISIBLE, WHILE KEEPING UP THE PRESSURE ON THE YOGI GOVERNMENT

MANEESH AGNIHOTRI

HOLY STOPOVER At Hanumangarhi temple in Ayodhya on March 29

Priyanka-Nov9.indd 36-37 10/29/2020 12:11:12 AM

3 8 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020

S P E C I A L R E P O R T : P R I YA N K A G A N D H I

committee, which had nearly 500 mem-bers, including many vice-presidents and general secretaries. Priyanka per-sonally spoke to each stakeholder and told them she wanted a committee with no more than 45-50 members, each with designated responsibilities. When some, mostly former MPs and MLAs in the 1980s, protested, 10 were expelled. After restructuring the state committee, vari-ous departments and wings of the PCC were formed. The social media team was strengthened. “Last year, the PCC had 7,000 numbers to reach out to, now we have 7.2 million across the state,” says a leader familiar with the exercise.

MISSION OUTREACHMass outreach programmes are another prong in Priyanka’s strategy, whether youth or farmers. To engage first-time voters, a general knowledge quiz com-petition for students was organised on Rajiv Gandhi’s birth anniversary on August 21. To engage the youth, Pri-yanka has in the past few months held 13 video interactions with 12,000 young men and women who had either applied for government jobs or were awaiting recruitment after clearing the neces-sary exam. She even wrote to the CM in September, asking the state government to honour the “right to emp loyment” by giving appointments to youngsters who had cleared exams for teachers’ posts.

Last December, she launched a Kisan Janjagaran Abhiyan. The aim was to reach every village and contact 2.5 million households in a month. Her aides claim the party reached out to 1.8 million households. Phase II of this cam-paign was slated for March, when Covid shifted the focus to relief work. Apart from spending Rs 27 lakh on train fares for migrants, the party ran community kitchens for two months in 40 cities of the state. “Our relief work during the lockdown,” says a PCC member, “helped enrich the party data base by 2.8 million phone numbers.”

FEEDBACK STATIONSAccording to Priyanka’s aides, some 3,000-5,000 Congress workers have access to Priyanka’s personal mobile

phone number and can contact her with either their own problems, or public issues and party concerns. In turn, they serve as a direct feedback mechanism for her. “In February, when 12-year-old Anabia, whose parents had been arrest-ed for the anti-CAA protests, asked Priyanka for her mobile number, she did not even blink before sharing her number,” says Manoj Yadav, head of the OBC cell, UP Congress.

Priyanka has also made it manda-tory for the two organisational secre-taries of UP east and west to be on the field for 15 days and live in the homes of party workers while travelling. “If stay-ing in a district for five days, they have to stay in a different house each day,” says Priyanka’s aide.

SPEAKING FOR EVERYONE Rather than target any one caste group, the party aims to give voice to all disgruntled sections of society. The Congress is hoping to tap into the anti-Thakur senti ment owing to the percep-tion that the CM favours them as he is from the same caste. The Brahmins, who traditionally had a role in deciding the winner in elections despite forming less than 15 per cent of the population, are also said to be upset with the CM. “Brahmins have a long history of con-flict with Yogi Adityanath,” says a PCC secretary. “The mood is now 6 per cent Rajput vs the rest.”

With all parties wooing the Dalits, the Congress too has joined the fray, using every single case of Dalit atroc-ity to attack the government. “In the past six months, 500 BSP workers have joined the Congress,” claims a party leader. Alongside, the Congress

is focusing on OBCs—the largest caste group in the state, accounting for 40 per cent of the population. “The PCC has 42 per cent OBCs,” says a PCC member. “Besides, we also have Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims in important positions.”

However, Prof. Kaushal Kishor Mis hra, who teaches political science at Banaras Hindu University, dismisses the possibility of Congress emerging as a melting pot of castes and communities against the BJP. “Even if Brahmins are unhappy with Adityanath, others are not an alternative for them. They won’t side with the SP and have a bitter experience backing the BSP. The Congress under Priyanka is neither here nor there. The era of social engineering is over. Caste may be a factor in electoral results, but it’s not the only one.”

Fellow political scientist Kamal Kumar at Lucknow University does not hold much hope for the Congress either. “The BJP and BSP are likely to reach an understanding before the poll, so the Congress is already at a disadvantage. The SP too enjoys the support of a large section of OBCs,” says the academic.

VIEW FROM THE OPPOSITION How seriously does the opposition take Priyanka? BJP state spokesperson Manoj Mishra dismisses her outright. “Priyanka Gandhi comes to UP only to do political tourism,” he alleges. “The talk of strengthening the party organisation is just that—talk. The party will fare even worse in the assembly election than it did in the Lok Sabha poll.” SP chief spokes-person Rajendra Chaudhary believes her activism won’t help as “the people have already decided on Akhilesh Yadav as the alternative to the BJP”.

Prof. Mishra also remains sceptical. “I don’t see any resurgence happening on the ground,” he says. “In Varanasi where I live, a Con g ress meeting can’t gather even 10 people. In Allahabad, once a Congress citadel, one cannot find 50 people ready to fight for the party.” It does little to deter the enthusiasm in the Congress though. “Priyanka Gandhi is the savi our of the party in UP,” says Yadav of the OBC cell. After all, none can instil self-belief in the Congress like a Gandhi. n

PRIYANKA FACES A DAUNTING TASK AS THE CONGRESS

HAS BEEN IN COMPLETE POLITICAL

WILDERNESS IN UP FOR 30 YEARS NOW

Priyanka-Nov9.indd 38 10/29/2020 12:11:27 AM

4 0 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020

RAINBOW CAMPAIGN

The BJP has overhauled its campaign strategy just days before the crucial assembly by-elections. As the ruling party, it may

hold the edge, but has Team Shivraj-Scindia covered all bases?

WITH CAMPAIGNING for the November 3 Madhya Pradesh by-elections in its final phase, the ruling BJP’s strategy has undergone

a visible change in structure and pitch. The bypolls, which are being touted as the biggest in the state’s history, will determine whether the BJP continues to govern or hands the reins back to the Congress party. The BJP, which has 107 MLAs in the 230-member assem-bly, needs to win only eight of the 28 by-election seats to secure a majority on its own. With a strength of 87 in the assembly, the Congress faces the uphill task of securing victories in all 28 seats

By Rahul Noronha

| Special Report | MADHYA PRADESH

to return to power by itself. The BJP, though, is aiming

beyond continuance in power. It wants to bump up its tally signifi-cantly so that the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government, which was formed this March through the defection of 25 MLAs from the Congress, secures moral authority in the public eye. For former Con-gress stalwart Jyotiraditya Scin-dia, who engineered the coup and joined the BJP, the by-elections are as much a test of his political credibility as a prestige battle (see “Only the people can judge me”).

The BJP has overhauled its campaign strategy, beginning with a change in the role of the key campaigners. Campaign-ing in teams has been replaced by solo ventures and star cam-paigners have been reassigned constituencies. The BJP’s ‘Shiv-Jyoti Express’—a title given to the Chouhan-Scindia team—has made way for individual cam-paigns by the two leaders. The party had launched the ‘Shiv-Jyoti Express’ on the lines of the ‘Moti-Madhav Express’, of Motilal Vora and Madhavrao Scindia, that had taken on chief minister Arjun Singh in the 1980s.

Chouhan will now address five public meetings in each of the 28 assembly constituencies while Scindia will hold two meet-ings in each seat. The big focus is Chambal, which accounts for 16 bypoll seats and is a Scindia stronghold. Union agriculture and farmer welfare minister Narendra Singh Tomar, a key BJP leader from Chambal, has joined the campaign as a star attrac-tion. BJP state president Vishnu Dutt Sharma, who also hails from

Chambal (Morena), is campaign-ing independently. He is known to have an aggressive campaign style, from his days in the ABVP (Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad).

BJP leaders are not only campaigning individually, their campaign pitches are also differ-ent. Chouhan mostly talks about development and accuses the Congress of ignoring the Gwalior-Chambal region during 15 months of its rule after the 2018 assembly election. His government has an-nounced projects worth crores for the region. Tomar has been speak-ing about the initiatives of the Union government, particularly the farm laws enacted in Sep-tember that the Centre says will benefit farmers. The Congress has been slamming the new farm laws and announcing that if it assumes power in Madhya Pradesh after the bypolls, it will bring in a law to make the purchase of agricultural produce below MSP (minimum support price) an offence.

Scindia, who initially talked about the Kamal Nath-led Congress government’s failure to deliver on election promises and alleged corruption, is now pegging the by-election as not a BJP-Congress fight but rather a ‘prestige battle’ for the Scindia family. In public meetings, he tells people to keep him in mind—rather than the particular BJP candidate—when they cast their votes. This has not gone down well with the BJP. Taking an in-direct dig at Scindia, Tomar said: “Scindiaji joined the BJP and is welcome. The BJP is an ideology and worker-driven party. He is getting to understand the BJP’s traditions and style of function-

POLL RIDE Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan flags off the BJP’s campaign raths in Bhopal on October 13

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 41

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4 0 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020

RAINBOW CAMPAIGN

The BJP has overhauled its campaign strategy just days before the crucial assembly by-elections. As the ruling party, it may

hold the edge, but has Team Shivraj-Scindia covered all bases?

WITH CAMPAIGNING for the November 3 Madhya Pradesh by-elections in its final phase, the ruling BJP’s strategy has undergone

a visible change in structure and pitch. The bypolls, which are being touted as the biggest in the state’s history, will determine whether the BJP continues to govern or hands the reins back to the Congress party. The BJP, which has 107 MLAs in the 230-member assem-bly, needs to win only eight of the 28 by-election seats to secure a majority on its own. With a strength of 87 in the assembly, the Congress faces the uphill task of securing victories in all 28 seats

By Rahul Noronha

| Special Report | MADHYA PRADESH

to return to power by itself. The BJP, though, is aiming

beyond continuance in power. It wants to bump up its tally signifi-cantly so that the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government, which was formed this March through the defection of 25 MLAs from the Congress, secures moral authority in the public eye. For former Con-gress stalwart Jyotiraditya Scin-dia, who engineered the coup and joined the BJP, the by-elections are as much a test of his political credibility as a prestige battle (see “Only the people can judge me”).

The BJP has overhauled its campaign strategy, beginning with a change in the role of the key campaigners. Campaign-ing in teams has been replaced by solo ventures and star cam-paigners have been reassigned constituencies. The BJP’s ‘Shiv-Jyoti Express’—a title given to the Chouhan-Scindia team—has made way for individual cam-paigns by the two leaders. The party had launched the ‘Shiv-Jyoti Express’ on the lines of the ‘Moti-Madhav Express’, of Motilal Vora and Madhavrao Scindia, that had taken on chief minister Arjun Singh in the 1980s.

Chouhan will now address five public meetings in each of the 28 assembly constituencies while Scindia will hold two meet-ings in each seat. The big focus is Chambal, which accounts for 16 bypoll seats and is a Scindia stronghold. Union agriculture and farmer welfare minister Narendra Singh Tomar, a key BJP leader from Chambal, has joined the campaign as a star attrac-tion. BJP state president Vishnu Dutt Sharma, who also hails from

Chambal (Morena), is campaign-ing independently. He is known to have an aggressive campaign style, from his days in the ABVP (Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad).

BJP leaders are not only campaigning individually, their campaign pitches are also differ-ent. Chouhan mostly talks about development and accuses the Congress of ignoring the Gwalior-Chambal region during 15 months of its rule after the 2018 assembly election. His government has an-nounced projects worth crores for the region. Tomar has been speak-ing about the initiatives of the Union government, particularly the farm laws enacted in Sep-tember that the Centre says will benefit farmers. The Congress has been slamming the new farm laws and announcing that if it assumes power in Madhya Pradesh after the bypolls, it will bring in a law to make the purchase of agricultural produce below MSP (minimum support price) an offence.

Scindia, who initially talked about the Kamal Nath-led Congress government’s failure to deliver on election promises and alleged corruption, is now pegging the by-election as not a BJP-Congress fight but rather a ‘prestige battle’ for the Scindia family. In public meetings, he tells people to keep him in mind—rather than the particular BJP candidate—when they cast their votes. This has not gone down well with the BJP. Taking an in-direct dig at Scindia, Tomar said: “Scindiaji joined the BJP and is welcome. The BJP is an ideology and worker-driven party. He is getting to understand the BJP’s traditions and style of function-

POLL RIDE Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan flags off the BJP’s campaign raths in Bhopal on October 13

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 41

ANI

Madhya Pradesh-Nov9.indd 40-41 10/29/2020 12:32:38 AM

ing, and I’m confident that he will be in harmony with it.”

The Scindia camp is peeved about the fact that his photo did not feature in the BJP campaign ‘raths’ touring the constituencies and his name appears at 10th position in the party’s list of star campaigners. “Eighteen of the 25 MLAs who quit the Congress to join the BJP did so out of loyalty to Scindia. The Scindia factor is crucial for [the BJP’s] electoral success in these constituencies. It would have made sense to make Scindia the face of the campaign in these seats,” says a state minister and Scindia loyalist, who did not wish to be named.

THE BJP HAS OTHER ISSUES TO DEAL WITH, such as a video that has surfaced of Imarti Devi, state minister and the party’s bypoll candidate from Dabra,

purportedly remarking “Party jaaye bhaad mein (the party can go to hell)”. The embarrassment comes within days of the BJP springing to Imarti Devi’s defence after Nath, while campaign-ing in Dabra on October 18, allegedly referred to her as an ‘item’.

The BJP’s campaign is being fiercely challenged by the Congress, including on social media. The BJP’s social media strategy revolves around the slogan “Shivraj hai toh vishwas hai (You can trust Shivraj Chouhan)” and highlighting the Nath government’s failures. The Congress, on the other hand, is going to town with its ‘disloy-alty’ theme, attacking Scindia and his loyalists of conspiring with the BJP to topple its government that enjoyed the people’s mandate. The Congress is also laying out its development agenda for the state should it come back to power. All of this appears to be getting traction. “Kamal Nath’s speeches, played live on the Congress’s social media pages, are getting more views than those of the BJP’s star campaign-ers, put out by the party on its official pages,” says Deepak Tiwari, senior journalist and former vice-chancellor,

| Special Report | MADHYA PRADESH

“ONLY THE PEOPLE CAN JUDGE ME”

I may look young but my soul is old,” says newly minted BJP leader Jyotiraditya Scindia to a 3,000-strong crowd that has assembled on a sunny late October morning

in Dholagarh, a mofussil 85 km from Gwalior, to see and hear him campaign for the Madhya Pradesh by-elections. This is Scindia’s way of telling them that despite his royal background, sophisticated demeanour and foreign education, he is one among them—rooted in “Indian culture”.

“I do not need to travel in an AC car. I’ve been taught how to work hard and survive on one onion, like many of you in the vil-lages,” he says. The crowd cheers with a roar of claps.

That’s an unusual and exag-gerated display of austerity from

Scindia whose declared assets are estimated to be nearly Rs 380 crore. The ‘young look’ of the 49-year-old Rajya Sabha MP, too, is not accidental as is evident from the expensive Whoop fitness strap on his right wrist. But then, the November 3 by-elections to the 28 assembly seats aren’t usual either. For Scindia, these elections are not just about ensur-ing a majority in the assembly for the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP government. The results on November 10 will also reflect the public’s verdict on his decision to switch from the Congress to the BJP in March this year.

In the Congress, Scindia had been miffed about being over-looked for chief ministership when the party won 114 seats in the 230-member assembly in 2018

and assumed power. The wins in 26 of the 34 seats in the Gwalior-Chambal region, where Scindia is perceived to be the undisputed leader, had contributed significantly to the victory. When Scindia parted ways with the Con-gress in March, 22 Congress MLAs loyal to him resigned from the assembly, bring-ing down the Kamal Nath government. Three other Congress MLAs resigned later and another three seats fell vacant from the death of incumbent legislators.

For Scindia, helping these former Congress MLAs—now contesting on BJP tickets—win is a matter of prestige and political cred-ibility, all the more because

16 of the bypoll seats are in Gwalior-Chambal. Anything less than 15 wins in the 28 seats may shrink his space within the state BJP already dominated by stalwarts like Chouhan and Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar.

So far, Scindia has been able to have his way in the BJP. Ensuring tickets for all 25 defecting MLAs was his first achievement. Then, he ensured that 12 of his loyal-ists got berths in the Chou-

han cabinet. Earlier in June, he secured a Rajya Sabha berth for himself, though the much speculated ministerial berth in the Narendra Modi cabinet eludes him.

Scindia, though, refutes talk of cutting any such deal with the BJP. “I’m not for any power or post. I joined the BJP not to become chief minister or a Union minis-ter. The development I had committed to my people was not happening within the Congress. That was my only purpose of joining the BJP, and I see that getting fulfilled,” he told india today.

Scindia, however, needs to deliver on his promises to the BJP and prove that the Congress’s dominance in

Gwalior-Chambal in the 2018 election had much to do with him. Towards this, he faces a challenge from Congress stalwart Digvijaya Singh, another influential leader in the region. Scindia’s determi-nation to win is evident from the intensity of his campaign. Every morning, armed with a basket of food, strips of Strepsils to relieve his throat and copious quantities of hand sanitiser, he takes off in a chopper from the airstrip within the compound of his Jai Vilas Palace in Gwalior, ad-dressing rallies till sunset. Af-ter that, he meets people and party workers till midnight.

Scindia attends 6-10 pub-lic meetings daily, delivering animated speeches that are often high on display of emo-tion. For instance, when Nath allegedly called Imarti Devi, a former Congress minister who is now contesting the by-poll on a BJP ticket, an “item”, Scindia made his disapproval public. At a rally, he first thundered that he would fight for the honour of women, and when an overwhelmed Imarti Devi broke into tears, he hugged her. Scindia says it was anything but playacting. “I’ve been campaigning since I was 13. These things come naturally to me. I connect with the emotions of the people.”

Scindia’s biggest chal-lenge in the BJP has been to gain acceptance for the Congress defectors among party workers. He says that in the preceding seven-eight months, he and other top BJP leaders personally monitored the assimilation

of these former Congress MLAs. At two election rallies, where india today travelled with Scindia, all former BJP MLAs were on stage with the bypoll candidates—Scindia loyalists and former Con-gress MLAs—appealing to the people to vote for them.

As for Scindia’s own standing in the BJP—not all party posters and campaign material include his face and his name features 10th in the list of star campaigners. His former Congress colleagues are relentless in their verbal assaults and call him a “trai-tor”. Scindia shrugs it all off, saying: “I’m least bothered. They can call me anything. Only the people can judge me.” And he is directly asking voters to make this bypoll their judgement call on him rather than the candidates in the fray. From the stage, he declares that he brought down the Congress govern-ment because it was not delivering on its promises to the people. “Did I do right or wrong?” he asks. When the public responds with claps, he seeks their electoral stamp on it: “If I did right, please make all 25 candi-dates win.” He emphasises that their vote is not for the candidate but for him—their “Shrimant”, their “Maharaja”.

Yet, offstage, the Maha-raja is unwilling to commit to any numbers. “In the previ-ous election, the Congress won all 25 seats. So any bypoll seat that the BJP wins will be a gain. We are here to gain, we have nothing to lose,” says Scindia. n

For Scindia, ensuring victories for his 25 loyalists is a matter of credibility. But wary of making predictions, he says any win will be a gain for the BJP

HIGH STAKES The BJP’s Jyotiraditya Scindia arrives in Dholagarh to campaign for the bypolls

By Kaushik Deka in Gwalior

4 2 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 43

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ing, and I’m confident that he will be in harmony with it.”

The Scindia camp is peeved about the fact that his photo did not feature in the BJP campaign ‘raths’ touring the constituencies and his name appears at 10th position in the party’s list of star campaigners. “Eighteen of the 25 MLAs who quit the Congress to join the BJP did so out of loyalty to Scindia. The Scindia factor is crucial for [the BJP’s] electoral success in these constituencies. It would have made sense to make Scindia the face of the campaign in these seats,” says a state minister and Scindia loyalist, who did not wish to be named.

THE BJP HAS OTHER ISSUES TO DEAL WITH, such as a video that has surfaced of Imarti Devi, state minister and the party’s bypoll candidate from Dabra,

purportedly remarking “Party jaaye bhaad mein (the party can go to hell)”. The embarrassment comes within days of the BJP springing to Imarti Devi’s defence after Nath, while campaign-ing in Dabra on October 18, allegedly referred to her as an ‘item’.

The BJP’s campaign is being fiercely challenged by the Congress, including on social media. The BJP’s social media strategy revolves around the slogan “Shivraj hai toh vishwas hai (You can trust Shivraj Chouhan)” and highlighting the Nath government’s failures. The Congress, on the other hand, is going to town with its ‘disloy-alty’ theme, attacking Scindia and his loyalists of conspiring with the BJP to topple its government that enjoyed the people’s mandate. The Congress is also laying out its development agenda for the state should it come back to power. All of this appears to be getting traction. “Kamal Nath’s speeches, played live on the Congress’s social media pages, are getting more views than those of the BJP’s star campaign-ers, put out by the party on its official pages,” says Deepak Tiwari, senior journalist and former vice-chancellor,

| Special Report | MADHYA PRADESH

“ONLY THE PEOPLE CAN JUDGE ME”

I may look young but my soul is old,” says newly minted BJP leader Jyotiraditya Scindia to a 3,000-strong crowd that has assembled on a sunny late October morning

in Dholagarh, a mofussil 85 km from Gwalior, to see and hear him campaign for the Madhya Pradesh by-elections. This is Scindia’s way of telling them that despite his royal background, sophisticated demeanour and foreign education, he is one among them—rooted in “Indian culture”.

“I do not need to travel in an AC car. I’ve been taught how to work hard and survive on one onion, like many of you in the vil-lages,” he says. The crowd cheers with a roar of claps.

That’s an unusual and exag-gerated display of austerity from

Scindia whose declared assets are estimated to be nearly Rs 380 crore. The ‘young look’ of the 49-year-old Rajya Sabha MP, too, is not accidental as is evident from the expensive Whoop fitness strap on his right wrist. But then, the November 3 by-elections to the 28 assembly seats aren’t usual either. For Scindia, these elections are not just about ensur-ing a majority in the assembly for the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP government. The results on November 10 will also reflect the public’s verdict on his decision to switch from the Congress to the BJP in March this year.

In the Congress, Scindia had been miffed about being over-looked for chief ministership when the party won 114 seats in the 230-member assembly in 2018

and assumed power. The wins in 26 of the 34 seats in the Gwalior-Chambal region, where Scindia is perceived to be the undisputed leader, had contributed significantly to the victory. When Scindia parted ways with the Con-gress in March, 22 Congress MLAs loyal to him resigned from the assembly, bring-ing down the Kamal Nath government. Three other Congress MLAs resigned later and another three seats fell vacant from the death of incumbent legislators.

For Scindia, helping these former Congress MLAs—now contesting on BJP tickets—win is a matter of prestige and political cred-ibility, all the more because

16 of the bypoll seats are in Gwalior-Chambal. Anything less than 15 wins in the 28 seats may shrink his space within the state BJP already dominated by stalwarts like Chouhan and Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar.

So far, Scindia has been able to have his way in the BJP. Ensuring tickets for all 25 defecting MLAs was his first achievement. Then, he ensured that 12 of his loyal-ists got berths in the Chou-

han cabinet. Earlier in June, he secured a Rajya Sabha berth for himself, though the much speculated ministerial berth in the Narendra Modi cabinet eludes him.

Scindia, though, refutes talk of cutting any such deal with the BJP. “I’m not for any power or post. I joined the BJP not to become chief minister or a Union minis-ter. The development I had committed to my people was not happening within the Congress. That was my only purpose of joining the BJP, and I see that getting fulfilled,” he told india today.

Scindia, however, needs to deliver on his promises to the BJP and prove that the Congress’s dominance in

Gwalior-Chambal in the 2018 election had much to do with him. Towards this, he faces a challenge from Congress stalwart Digvijaya Singh, another influential leader in the region. Scindia’s determi-nation to win is evident from the intensity of his campaign. Every morning, armed with a basket of food, strips of Strepsils to relieve his throat and copious quantities of hand sanitiser, he takes off in a chopper from the airstrip within the compound of his Jai Vilas Palace in Gwalior, ad-dressing rallies till sunset. Af-ter that, he meets people and party workers till midnight.

Scindia attends 6-10 pub-lic meetings daily, delivering animated speeches that are often high on display of emo-tion. For instance, when Nath allegedly called Imarti Devi, a former Congress minister who is now contesting the by-poll on a BJP ticket, an “item”, Scindia made his disapproval public. At a rally, he first thundered that he would fight for the honour of women, and when an overwhelmed Imarti Devi broke into tears, he hugged her. Scindia says it was anything but playacting. “I’ve been campaigning since I was 13. These things come naturally to me. I connect with the emotions of the people.”

Scindia’s biggest chal-lenge in the BJP has been to gain acceptance for the Congress defectors among party workers. He says that in the preceding seven-eight months, he and other top BJP leaders personally monitored the assimilation

of these former Congress MLAs. At two election rallies, where india today travelled with Scindia, all former BJP MLAs were on stage with the bypoll candidates—Scindia loyalists and former Con-gress MLAs—appealing to the people to vote for them.

As for Scindia’s own standing in the BJP—not all party posters and campaign material include his face and his name features 10th in the list of star campaigners. His former Congress colleagues are relentless in their verbal assaults and call him a “trai-tor”. Scindia shrugs it all off, saying: “I’m least bothered. They can call me anything. Only the people can judge me.” And he is directly asking voters to make this bypoll their judgement call on him rather than the candidates in the fray. From the stage, he declares that he brought down the Congress govern-ment because it was not delivering on its promises to the people. “Did I do right or wrong?” he asks. When the public responds with claps, he seeks their electoral stamp on it: “If I did right, please make all 25 candi-dates win.” He emphasises that their vote is not for the candidate but for him—their “Shrimant”, their “Maharaja”.

Yet, offstage, the Maha-raja is unwilling to commit to any numbers. “In the previ-ous election, the Congress won all 25 seats. So any bypoll seat that the BJP wins will be a gain. We are here to gain, we have nothing to lose,” says Scindia. n

For Scindia, ensuring victories for his 25 loyalists is a matter of credibility. But wary of making predictions, he says any win will be a gain for the BJP

HIGH STAKES The BJP’s Jyotiraditya Scindia arrives in Dholagarh to campaign for the bypolls

By Kaushik Deka in Gwalior

4 2 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 43

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easier for the BJP. On October 22, state cooperatives minister Arvind Bhadoria claimed that two out of the four Independents in the assembly, Surendra Singh and Kedar Dabar, have issued letters of support in fa-vour of the BJP. Rivals are calling this an attempt to influence voting as by-elections often see the electorate go-ing with the party it thinks will come to power. While it’s not unusual for political ethics to be given the go-by in the quest for power, this by-election is more about winning the battle for the moral high ground. Over to the voter to decide the party that’s more deserving of it. n

Makhanlal Chaturvedi National Uni-versity of Journalism and Communica-tion, Bhopal.

There is also discontent brewing in the lowest rungs of the BJP, with sup-porters of the defecting Congress MLAs seeking a role for themselves at the booth level. While the MLAs were rewarded with bypoll tickets or ministerial berths, their supporters are hankering for organisational posts in the BJP. This has led to friction in several constituen-cies even as grassroots BJP workers are miffed about bypoll tickets being given to the entrants from the Congress.

But in a move that should give the BJP some psychological boost, the

party, on October 25, got the Congress’s Damoh MLA Rahul Lodhi to resign from the assembly and defect to the BJP. He is the 26th legislator to jump the Congress ship since March. Lodhi’s resignation in the middle of the by-election campaign is being perceived as part of the BJP’s strategy to convince voters about the party’s invincibility and grip on power in the state. “The change of heart displayed by Lodhi is an indicator of the outcome of these by-elections,” claims BJP state spokesper-son Rahul Kothari.

Lodhi’s exit has also brought down the halfway mark in the assembly to 115, perhaps making the battle a tad

CHAMBAL-GWALIOR BUNDELKHAND

MAHAKOSHAL—BAGHELKHAND

CUSP

EDGE OF MALWA PLATEAU

PRESTIGE AT STAKEOf the 28 assembly seats going for bypolls, 16 are on Jyotiraditya Scindia’s turf. A bigger test awaits the royal scion in the remaining 12 seats, where Congress defectors backed by him are seeking re-election

Constituencies: Joura Sumaoli, Morena, Dimni, Ambah (SC), Mehgaon, Gohad (SC), Gwalior, Gwalior East, Dabra (SC), Bhander (SC), Karera (SC), Pohari, Bamori, Ashok Nagar (SC), Mungaoli

Constituencies: Surkhi, Malehra

Constituency: Anuppur (ST)

Constituencies: Sanchi (SC), Biaora

SWOT for Scindia: Though it’s a Jyotiraditya Scindia stronghold, he will face a challenge from the Congress’s Digvijaya Singh, who has considerable influence in the region

SWOT for Scindia: Uma Bharti, the BJP’s top leader in the region, started campaigning late. The Congress fielding a sadhvi, Ram Siya Bharti, from the same community as Uma makes it tougher for Scindia and the BJP

SWOT for Scindia: These three seats have often swung between the Congress and the BJP. Scindia faces challenge from Kamal Nath and Suresh Pachouri of the Congress

MALWA

NIMAR

Constituencies: Agar (SC), Hatpipalya, Badnawar, Sanwer (SC), Suwasara

Constituencies: Mandhata, Nepanagar (ST)

SWOT for Scindia: The BJP’s chances depend on support from Kailash Vijayvargiya and Thawar Chand Gehlot

| Special Report | MADHYA PRADESH

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 45

CONGRESS COMEBACK PLAN RIDES ON NATH

On October 25, former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Kamal Nath wrote to

sitting and former Con-gress MLAs tasked with managing the by-elections in ‘mandals’, or clusters of 10-12 booths each. The letter said Nath would be sharing a post-results analysis of the party’s performance in the booths. The message was clear: how the Congress fares will determine the future of these leaders in the party. In the make-or-break bypoll he faces, Nath is trying to raise accountability to lev-els state Congress leaders are not accustomed to.

With the exit of Jyotira-ditya Scindia, and veteran Digvijaya Singh playing an important but behind-the-scenes role, the Congress in MP is now a Nath show. He is not only the state unit president but also leader of the opposition. The net re-sult is that decision-making in the party is now faster. Digvijaya’s direct involve-ment is restricted to seats like Ashok Nagar, Biaora, Agar and Bamori, where he

has a huge following.The unified chain of

command in the Congress was at work during ticket distribution as well. In many seats, the Congress could not find strong candidates as the leaders it had groomed defected with Scindia. Nath relied on field surveys to pick winnable candidates, while ensuring that they also fitted into the caste arithmetic. The sole exception was Chaudhary Rakesh Singh Chaturvedi, who was denied a ticket owing to resistance from party leaders.

While the Congress is running a high-decibel campaign around the “dis-loyalty” by Scindia and his loyalists, it has itself issued tickets to about half a dozen defectors from the BJP. It’s trying to make a distinction between those who left the party and brought down the Nath government and the BJP turncoats who joined the Congress with a “bikau versus tikau (tradable ver-sus bankable)” narrative. “There is a groundswell of anger against those who deserted the Congress and traded their loyalty,” claims

Brajendra Singh Rathore, former minister and the party’s Prithvipur MLA.

The disloyalty narra-tive is especially finding resonance in the Chambal region. Besides, Nath is projecting himself as a vic-tim of political conspiracy.

“Why was my government pulled down in just 15 months?” he asks at rallies.

To widen its appeal, the Congress has released region and constituency-specific manifestos. “Each region has its own needs, which had to be accom-modated,” says Congress state spokesperson Abhay Dubey. For instance, in

Chambal, where guns are a status symbol, simplifying gun licensing norms is a top draw. To try and deny the BJP the ‘ruling party advantage’, the Congress has coined slogans that project it as returning to power. One such slogan is, “Janata khadi hai saath, laut rahe hain Kamal Nath (With people’s support, Kamal Nath will return to power)”.

The party’s social media plan is also paying off. Con-gress leader Sachin Pilot’s speech in Sumaoli on Oc-tober 27 got 221,000 views against 14,000 for a public meeting by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Mandhata. In contrast to Chouhan, Nath is perceived as more of a strategist than an on-field campaigner. This election, however, is seeing him fly out of Bhopal every morning to address public meetings in two to three constituencies. Will the bypolls transform him into a people’s leader, a jan nayak as they say in the Hindi heartland? n

By Rahul Noronha in Bhopal

BIG DRAW Kamal Nath’s road show in Gwalior

Kamal Nath has relied on field surveys to pick strong candidates, while ensuring that they also fit the caste equation

Graphic by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

ANI

Madhya Pradesh-Nov9.indd 44-45 10/29/2020 12:33:26 AM

easier for the BJP. On October 22, state cooperatives minister Arvind Bhadoria claimed that two out of the four Independents in the assembly, Surendra Singh and Kedar Dabar, have issued letters of support in fa-vour of the BJP. Rivals are calling this an attempt to influence voting as by-elections often see the electorate go-ing with the party it thinks will come to power. While it’s not unusual for political ethics to be given the go-by in the quest for power, this by-election is more about winning the battle for the moral high ground. Over to the voter to decide the party that’s more deserving of it. n

Makhanlal Chaturvedi National Uni-versity of Journalism and Communica-tion, Bhopal.

There is also discontent brewing in the lowest rungs of the BJP, with sup-porters of the defecting Congress MLAs seeking a role for themselves at the booth level. While the MLAs were rewarded with bypoll tickets or ministerial berths, their supporters are hankering for organisational posts in the BJP. This has led to friction in several constituen-cies even as grassroots BJP workers are miffed about bypoll tickets being given to the entrants from the Congress.

But in a move that should give the BJP some psychological boost, the

party, on October 25, got the Congress’s Damoh MLA Rahul Lodhi to resign from the assembly and defect to the BJP. He is the 26th legislator to jump the Congress ship since March. Lodhi’s resignation in the middle of the by-election campaign is being perceived as part of the BJP’s strategy to convince voters about the party’s invincibility and grip on power in the state. “The change of heart displayed by Lodhi is an indicator of the outcome of these by-elections,” claims BJP state spokesper-son Rahul Kothari.

Lodhi’s exit has also brought down the halfway mark in the assembly to 115, perhaps making the battle a tad

CHAMBAL-GWALIOR BUNDELKHAND

MAHAKOSHAL—BAGHELKHAND

CUSP

EDGE OF MALWA PLATEAU

PRESTIGE AT STAKEOf the 28 assembly seats going for bypolls, 16 are on Jyotiraditya Scindia’s turf. A bigger test awaits the royal scion in the remaining 12 seats, where Congress defectors backed by him are seeking re-election

Constituencies: Joura Sumaoli, Morena, Dimni, Ambah (SC), Mehgaon, Gohad (SC), Gwalior, Gwalior East, Dabra (SC), Bhander (SC), Karera (SC), Pohari, Bamori, Ashok Nagar (SC), Mungaoli

Constituencies: Surkhi, Malehra

Constituency: Anuppur (ST)

Constituencies: Sanchi (SC), Biaora

SWOT for Scindia: Though it’s a Jyotiraditya Scindia stronghold, he will face a challenge from the Congress’s Digvijaya Singh, who has considerable influence in the region

SWOT for Scindia: Uma Bharti, the BJP’s top leader in the region, started campaigning late. The Congress fielding a sadhvi, Ram Siya Bharti, from the same community as Uma makes it tougher for Scindia and the BJP

SWOT for Scindia: These three seats have often swung between the Congress and the BJP. Scindia faces challenge from Kamal Nath and Suresh Pachouri of the Congress

MALWA

NIMAR

Constituencies: Agar (SC), Hatpipalya, Badnawar, Sanwer (SC), Suwasara

Constituencies: Mandhata, Nepanagar (ST)

SWOT for Scindia: The BJP’s chances depend on support from Kailash Vijayvargiya and Thawar Chand Gehlot

| Special Report | MADHYA PRADESH

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 45

CONGRESS COMEBACK PLAN RIDES ON NATH

On October 25, former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Kamal Nath wrote to

sitting and former Con-gress MLAs tasked with managing the by-elections in ‘mandals’, or clusters of 10-12 booths each. The letter said Nath would be sharing a post-results analysis of the party’s performance in the booths. The message was clear: how the Congress fares will determine the future of these leaders in the party. In the make-or-break bypoll he faces, Nath is trying to raise accountability to lev-els state Congress leaders are not accustomed to.

With the exit of Jyotira-ditya Scindia, and veteran Digvijaya Singh playing an important but behind-the-scenes role, the Congress in MP is now a Nath show. He is not only the state unit president but also leader of the opposition. The net re-sult is that decision-making in the party is now faster. Digvijaya’s direct involve-ment is restricted to seats like Ashok Nagar, Biaora, Agar and Bamori, where he

has a huge following.The unified chain of

command in the Congress was at work during ticket distribution as well. In many seats, the Congress could not find strong candidates as the leaders it had groomed defected with Scindia. Nath relied on field surveys to pick winnable candidates, while ensuring that they also fitted into the caste arithmetic. The sole exception was Chaudhary Rakesh Singh Chaturvedi, who was denied a ticket owing to resistance from party leaders.

While the Congress is running a high-decibel campaign around the “dis-loyalty” by Scindia and his loyalists, it has itself issued tickets to about half a dozen defectors from the BJP. It’s trying to make a distinction between those who left the party and brought down the Nath government and the BJP turncoats who joined the Congress with a “bikau versus tikau (tradable ver-sus bankable)” narrative. “There is a groundswell of anger against those who deserted the Congress and traded their loyalty,” claims

Brajendra Singh Rathore, former minister and the party’s Prithvipur MLA.

The disloyalty narra-tive is especially finding resonance in the Chambal region. Besides, Nath is projecting himself as a vic-tim of political conspiracy.

“Why was my government pulled down in just 15 months?” he asks at rallies.

To widen its appeal, the Congress has released region and constituency-specific manifestos. “Each region has its own needs, which had to be accom-modated,” says Congress state spokesperson Abhay Dubey. For instance, in

Chambal, where guns are a status symbol, simplifying gun licensing norms is a top draw. To try and deny the BJP the ‘ruling party advantage’, the Congress has coined slogans that project it as returning to power. One such slogan is, “Janata khadi hai saath, laut rahe hain Kamal Nath (With people’s support, Kamal Nath will return to power)”.

The party’s social media plan is also paying off. Con-gress leader Sachin Pilot’s speech in Sumaoli on Oc-tober 27 got 221,000 views against 14,000 for a public meeting by Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Mandhata. In contrast to Chouhan, Nath is perceived as more of a strategist than an on-field campaigner. This election, however, is seeing him fly out of Bhopal every morning to address public meetings in two to three constituencies. Will the bypolls transform him into a people’s leader, a jan nayak as they say in the Hindi heartland? n

By Rahul Noronha in Bhopal

BIG DRAW Kamal Nath’s road show in Gwalior

Kamal Nath has relied on field surveys to pick strong candidates, while ensuring that they also fit the caste equation

Graphic by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

ANI

Madhya Pradesh-Nov9.indd 44-45 10/29/2020 12:33:26 AM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 47

FINALLY, AN UPTICK

C I N E M A

BY M.G. ARUN

While some sectors of the economy have seen improved demand and sales in recent months, businesses are hoping the festive season sets a lasting favourable momentum

he festival season, starting with Dussehra and continuing till the New Year, is usually boom time for retailers and manufacturers alike. Everything from cars to consumer durables, clothes to mobile phones is in demand. This

year, there’s even greater hope riding the festive season—businesses are fervently hoping that demand will pick up, people will spend and hopefully set a happy momentum that will put the economy on the path of a robust recovery. At the very least, businesses are hoping to recover losses incurred during the lockdown, and possibly, earn enough to sustain themselves through the traditionally low-demand months that follow.

There is reason to be hopeful. Many industry profes-sionals that india today spoke to say consumer demand has returned—to varying degrees in different sectors—in September and October, and that this holds out hope for the rest of the festive season. This is not to discount the fact that the Indian economy is in dire straits—most estimates project growth falling nearly 10 per cent this fiscal year. However, a good performance in the festive season could soften the blow and aid a faster recovery.

With most parts of the country now reopening after a series of total and partial lockdowns since March 25, the Indian retail sector, pegged at $950 billion (Rs 70 lakh crore) and employing 40-60 million people, is seeing green

Tshoots of recovery. Except in centrally air-conditioned malls, where footfall is low, most retailers are reporting improved sales. Kumar Rajagopalan, CEO of the Retailers Associa-tion of India (RAI), which represents about 500,000 stores in organised retail, says the sector has seen a progressive improvement in sales over the past four months—June saw sales at 40 per cent of the figure for the same month last year, with the following three months seeing that number improve to 50 per cent, 60 per cent and 70 per cent. Rajagopa-lan says a similar trend is being seen in the unorganised sector as well, and that certain segments, such as electronics and mobile phones, are doing better than others. “One [feature of] festive season sales is that people buy not only for themselves, but also gifts for others,” he says, ar-guing that the festival season could see a much-needed demand boost. However, he adds a note of caution. “This does not mean retailers are out of the woods—many are wary of stocking too much.”

HOLD THE BUBBLY Even as retailers hope for a rebound, a note of caution marks their optimism. This stems from fears of a ‘second wave’ of Covid-19 cases, as seen in many European countries, forcing new rounds of curfews and lockdowns. In India, the number of new Covid cases per day ap-pears to be falling, with about 50,000 cases reported on October 24, one of the lowest daily totals since July 28.

But with the onset of winter, there is a pos-sibility of that trend reversing, which could lead to more lockdowns and another sales slump. Moreover, vaccines for the disease are still under development, and may not be available till next year. Even so, analysts and industry leaders across sectors cautiously report positive developments.

In the automotive sector, R.C. Bhar-gava, chairman of Maruti Suzuki, India’s largest car manufacturer, says, “Going by retail numbers, sales are definitely [im-proving].” Maruti Suzuki saw a 30 per cent year-on-year increase in sales in September, selling 160,442 units that month compared to only 122,640 units a year ago. Bajaj Auto, a major two-wheeler manufacturer, saw a 10 per cent year-on-year sales increase in

September, from 402,035 units in that month last year to 441,306 units this year. The numbers for other automotive manufacturers are more mod-est. Hyundai Motor India’s sales in September increased only by 3.8 per cent year-on-year, rising to 59,913 units from 57,705 units in Septem-ber 2019. However, Bhargava adds a caveat for comparisons in October: last year, both Dussehra and Diwali were in October. This year, the festival season extends over several weeks, as Diwali is in mid-November; therefore, the sales

numbers for October are not exactly comparable with those of the same month last year. Even so, on a positive note, media reports suggest auto makers will produce 330,000-340,000 cars in October, the highest monthly output since January 2019.

There are several reasons analysts expect auto companies to see improved performance in the festival season. Suman Chowdhury, chief analytical officer at Acuite Ratings and Research, says these include an increased preference for private vehicles because of the pandemic, an improved demand environment in rural and semi-urban areas and increased stocking by dealers in expectation of higher sales due to pent-up demand. Another potential boost to demand comes from the Centre’s LTC (leave travel concession) cash voucher

( F a c i n g ) A n o u t d o o r m a r k e t i n J a m m u ; a v i e w o f t h e c e n t r a l a t r i u m o f D L F P r o m e n a d e M a l l i n N e w D e l h i

E C O N O M Y

Although there has been

an uptick in sales, retailers

are wary of holding too

much stock, fearing a

‘second wave’ of Covid-19

cases

CHANDRADEEP KUMARAP

Festival Economy-Nov9.indd 46-47 10/28/2020 11:21:26 PM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 47

FINALLY, AN UPTICK

C I N E M A

BY M.G. ARUN

While some sectors of the economy have seen improved demand and sales in recent months, businesses are hoping the festive season sets a lasting favourable momentum

he festival season, starting with Dussehra and continuing till the New Year, is usually boom time for retailers and manufacturers alike. Everything from cars to consumer durables, clothes to mobile phones is in demand. This

year, there’s even greater hope riding the festive season—businesses are fervently hoping that demand will pick up, people will spend and hopefully set a happy momentum that will put the economy on the path of a robust recovery. At the very least, businesses are hoping to recover losses incurred during the lockdown, and possibly, earn enough to sustain themselves through the traditionally low-demand months that follow.

There is reason to be hopeful. Many industry profes-sionals that india today spoke to say consumer demand has returned—to varying degrees in different sectors—in September and October, and that this holds out hope for the rest of the festive season. This is not to discount the fact that the Indian economy is in dire straits—most estimates project growth falling nearly 10 per cent this fiscal year. However, a good performance in the festive season could soften the blow and aid a faster recovery.

With most parts of the country now reopening after a series of total and partial lockdowns since March 25, the Indian retail sector, pegged at $950 billion (Rs 70 lakh crore) and employing 40-60 million people, is seeing green

Tshoots of recovery. Except in centrally air-conditioned malls, where footfall is low, most retailers are reporting improved sales. Kumar Rajagopalan, CEO of the Retailers Associa-tion of India (RAI), which represents about 500,000 stores in organised retail, says the sector has seen a progressive improvement in sales over the past four months—June saw sales at 40 per cent of the figure for the same month last year, with the following three months seeing that number improve to 50 per cent, 60 per cent and 70 per cent. Rajagopa-lan says a similar trend is being seen in the unorganised sector as well, and that certain segments, such as electronics and mobile phones, are doing better than others. “One [feature of] festive season sales is that people buy not only for themselves, but also gifts for others,” he says, ar-guing that the festival season could see a much-needed demand boost. However, he adds a note of caution. “This does not mean retailers are out of the woods—many are wary of stocking too much.”

HOLD THE BUBBLY Even as retailers hope for a rebound, a note of caution marks their optimism. This stems from fears of a ‘second wave’ of Covid-19 cases, as seen in many European countries, forcing new rounds of curfews and lockdowns. In India, the number of new Covid cases per day ap-pears to be falling, with about 50,000 cases reported on October 24, one of the lowest daily totals since July 28.

But with the onset of winter, there is a pos-sibility of that trend reversing, which could lead to more lockdowns and another sales slump. Moreover, vaccines for the disease are still under development, and may not be available till next year. Even so, analysts and industry leaders across sectors cautiously report positive developments.

In the automotive sector, R.C. Bhar-gava, chairman of Maruti Suzuki, India’s largest car manufacturer, says, “Going by retail numbers, sales are definitely [im-proving].” Maruti Suzuki saw a 30 per cent year-on-year increase in sales in September, selling 160,442 units that month compared to only 122,640 units a year ago. Bajaj Auto, a major two-wheeler manufacturer, saw a 10 per cent year-on-year sales increase in

September, from 402,035 units in that month last year to 441,306 units this year. The numbers for other automotive manufacturers are more mod-est. Hyundai Motor India’s sales in September increased only by 3.8 per cent year-on-year, rising to 59,913 units from 57,705 units in Septem-ber 2019. However, Bhargava adds a caveat for comparisons in October: last year, both Dussehra and Diwali were in October. This year, the festival season extends over several weeks, as Diwali is in mid-November; therefore, the sales

numbers for October are not exactly comparable with those of the same month last year. Even so, on a positive note, media reports suggest auto makers will produce 330,000-340,000 cars in October, the highest monthly output since January 2019.

There are several reasons analysts expect auto companies to see improved performance in the festival season. Suman Chowdhury, chief analytical officer at Acuite Ratings and Research, says these include an increased preference for private vehicles because of the pandemic, an improved demand environment in rural and semi-urban areas and increased stocking by dealers in expectation of higher sales due to pent-up demand. Another potential boost to demand comes from the Centre’s LTC (leave travel concession) cash voucher

( F a c i n g ) A n o u t d o o r m a r k e t i n J a m m u ; a v i e w o f t h e c e n t r a l a t r i u m o f D L F P r o m e n a d e M a l l i n N e w D e l h i

E C O N O M Y

Although there has been

an uptick in sales, retailers

are wary of holding too

much stock, fearing a

‘second wave’ of Covid-19

cases

CHANDRADEEP KUMARAP

Festival Economy-Nov9.indd 46-47 10/28/2020 11:21:26 PM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 49

ate General of Civil Aviation) has approved 12,983 domestic flights a week, 55 per cent of the number for last year’s winter season. Airlines are currently allowed to operate 60 per cent of their pre-Covid flights, which may be scaled up to 75 per cent around Diwali (mid-November). Nishant Pitti, CEO of easemytrip.com, a travel portal, says that air travel has reached 65-68 per cent of pre-Covid levels, and may touch 75-78 per cent over the next 30 to 45 days. The hospitality sector is seeing healthy enquiry numbers as well, especially from those seeking weekend getaways. S.P. Jain, founder and chairman of Pride Hotels, has said that demand at resorts is up during the weekends, with room occupancy numbers as high as 80 per cent. Also aiding this is a 20-25 per cent reduction in room tariffs compared to the pre-Covid days.

In the FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) sector, firms did well during the pandemic by beefing up supply of essential goods and focusing on sales in rural areas. They have also gained in the latest quarter; for instance, Hindu-stan Unilever reported a nine per cent increase in its second-quarter net profit to Rs 2,009 crore on the back of higher rural sales. ITC, another large FMCG company, has said it has not seen a slowdown in food spends, be it in the ready-to-eat, staples, biscuits or snacks segments. Hemant Malik, CEO of its food division, has reportedly said that business is growing in the double digits.

KEEPING IT GOINGWhile many sectors report positive trends, a major ques-tion is how sustainable this demand is. Experts say this depends on a host of factors. For instance, a revival in real estate—as in all other sectors—depends on the country not going into lockdown once more. Progress also depends on policy decisions by the central and state governments—for instance, Hiranandani says the Maharashtra government’s reduction of stamp duty is a measure that other states could follow. Much also depends on how the government addresses

issues like credit availability—this heavily affects real estate, since the NBFC (non-banking financial company) sector has been in crisis mode since the IL&FS debacle in 2018. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, loans sanctioned by NBFCs fell 15 per cent compared to the year-ago period, as per data released by the Finance Industry Develop-ment Council in July this year.

The automotive industry, on the other hand, does not want to look too far into the future. “We are now focused on No-

vember,” says Deepak Jain, CMD of Lumax Industries and president of the Automotive Component Manufactur-ers Association (ACMA). He says there is a buzz of activity on the shop floors of ACMA’s member firms as they work at 100 per cent capacity. “Challenges still exist. Factories have to maintain physical distance on the shop floor—there is always a risk of Covid cases, which can impact production,” he says. Moreover, the festive season also means fewer working days. Factors like these put pressure on the automotive supply chain. “The litmus test for the industry will come after Diwali,” he adds.

December also traditionally sees higher auto sales as companies offer big discounts to clear inventories. “The real question is how the industry will perform in the January-March quarter of this fiscal,” says Bhargava. “We are not making any forecasts.” He also says a lot depends on the quantum of fiscal stimulus the Centre plans to inject into the economy. If a vaccine is developed soon, it will have a big impact on buying sentiment, not just in automotives but across all categories of goods and services.

On a sombre note, Madan Sabnavis, chief economist with Care Ratings, says ratings firms had already factored in the improved business prospects of the festive season when making GDP growth forecasts for the fiscal year. “There is indeed a recovery,” he says, “but that is com-ing from the unlocking of businesses after the lockdown was lifted. It should not be confused with a real revival in demand.” He also says it is unrealistic to expect a V-shaped recovery or a sharp rebound. Asked if there is something the Centre could do to revive demand in the short term, he says it would be a case of “too little, too late”. Had the gov-ernment taken such steps some three months ago, it could have expected to see some results by October. Even so, the government should not miss out on an opportunity to give consumer spending a push through further stimulus mea-sures to help the economy rebound. n

E C O N O M Y

scheme. “The LTC scheme includes [benefits for] automobile [purchas-es], and we hope this further improves sales,” says Bhargava.

The e-commerce sector, which had already seen robust sales during the pandemic as a result of people prefer-ring to buy essentials online rather than physically visit shops, has seen a further growth over the past few months. Online sales festivals by Amazon, Flipkart and Snapdeal, where deep dis-counts were on offer, received a strong response in the October 15-19 period. According to estimates by RedSeer Consulting, an online sales tracking firm, e-tailers saw about $3.1 billion (Rs 23,000 crore) worth of goods being sold in the first 4.5 days of this period. This is about 77 per cent of what the consulting firm had projected for the first round of the festive season.

The real estate sector, on the other hand, valued at Rs 8.8 lakh crore, has struggled during the pandemic. While there has been an uptick in property purchases in some of the larger real estate markets over the past two months, it is too early to say that buyers are returning to the mar-ket. Niranjan Hiranandani, founder and MD of the Hiranandani Group, highlights the role of structural fac-tors: “Interest rates on home loans are down to 6.9 per cent, and that has helped sales.” In Maharashtra, property registrations got a further boost from a reduction in stamp duty announced by the state government—in end-August, stamp duty was cut by three per cent on transactions between September 1 and December 31, and two per cent between January 1 and March 31. This appears to have had some effect—property registrations in September rose 26 per cent to 240,333, compared to the same month the previous year, according to media reports. In October, until the 20th of the month, there were 168,852 registrations, 87 per cent of the number in the same month last year.

According to a report by PropTiger, the third quarter of calendar year 2020 saw an 85 per cent increase in home sales, rising to 35,132 units, compared to the second quarter, in the top eight cities—the Mumbai Metropolitan Region

(MMR), the National Capital Region, Hyderabad, Benga-luru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Chennai and Pune. However, compared to July-September 2019, sales during the quarter fell 57 per cent, which indicates that the real estate sector is still in a precarious position. “The sector has always had its ups and downs,” says Hiranandani. “However, the lockdown has extended its woes.”

The travel and tourism sector, among the worst-hit by the pandemic, is struggling to regain its footing. For the winter schedule starting end-October, the DGCA (Director-

Experts say the Centre should not

miss out on an opportunity to give consumer

spending a push through new stimulus

measures

S h o p p e r s a t B h a d r a F o r t m a r k e t , A h m e d a b a d

Several sectors, including automobiles, retail, e-tail and property, have reported an uptick in sales

POINTS OF GOOD CHEER

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

JUN

JUL

JUL

AUG

AUG

SEP

SEP

2020

DOMESTIC AUTO SALES

RETAIL REVIVAL

70%60%50%40%

HOME SALES*

*In the top eight cities: NCR, MMR, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Chennai,

Pune. Data for calendar year 2020 (Source: PropTiger)

18,99035,132

ONLINE GROWTH

Source: RedSeer Consulting

Value of goods sold by online firms Amazon, Flipkart and Snapdeal in the first few days of their festive season mega sales, 77 per cent of the total sales projected for the first round of the festive season

$3.1 bn

Source: CMIE

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

Sales in 2020 as a percentage of sales in the same month last year

Source: Retailers Association of India

57% Drop in home sales in the July-September quarter this year compared to the

same period last year—this indicates the sector's precarious position

(~Rs 23,000 crore)

Graphic by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

GETTY IMAGES

Festival Economy-Nov9.indd 48-49 10/28/2020 11:21:41 PM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 49

ate General of Civil Aviation) has approved 12,983 domestic flights a week, 55 per cent of the number for last year’s winter season. Airlines are currently allowed to operate 60 per cent of their pre-Covid flights, which may be scaled up to 75 per cent around Diwali (mid-November). Nishant Pitti, CEO of easemytrip.com, a travel portal, says that air travel has reached 65-68 per cent of pre-Covid levels, and may touch 75-78 per cent over the next 30 to 45 days. The hospitality sector is seeing healthy enquiry numbers as well, especially from those seeking weekend getaways. S.P. Jain, founder and chairman of Pride Hotels, has said that demand at resorts is up during the weekends, with room occupancy numbers as high as 80 per cent. Also aiding this is a 20-25 per cent reduction in room tariffs compared to the pre-Covid days.

In the FMCG (fast moving consumer goods) sector, firms did well during the pandemic by beefing up supply of essential goods and focusing on sales in rural areas. They have also gained in the latest quarter; for instance, Hindu-stan Unilever reported a nine per cent increase in its second-quarter net profit to Rs 2,009 crore on the back of higher rural sales. ITC, another large FMCG company, has said it has not seen a slowdown in food spends, be it in the ready-to-eat, staples, biscuits or snacks segments. Hemant Malik, CEO of its food division, has reportedly said that business is growing in the double digits.

KEEPING IT GOINGWhile many sectors report positive trends, a major ques-tion is how sustainable this demand is. Experts say this depends on a host of factors. For instance, a revival in real estate—as in all other sectors—depends on the country not going into lockdown once more. Progress also depends on policy decisions by the central and state governments—for instance, Hiranandani says the Maharashtra government’s reduction of stamp duty is a measure that other states could follow. Much also depends on how the government addresses

issues like credit availability—this heavily affects real estate, since the NBFC (non-banking financial company) sector has been in crisis mode since the IL&FS debacle in 2018. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, loans sanctioned by NBFCs fell 15 per cent compared to the year-ago period, as per data released by the Finance Industry Develop-ment Council in July this year.

The automotive industry, on the other hand, does not want to look too far into the future. “We are now focused on No-

vember,” says Deepak Jain, CMD of Lumax Industries and president of the Automotive Component Manufactur-ers Association (ACMA). He says there is a buzz of activity on the shop floors of ACMA’s member firms as they work at 100 per cent capacity. “Challenges still exist. Factories have to maintain physical distance on the shop floor—there is always a risk of Covid cases, which can impact production,” he says. Moreover, the festive season also means fewer working days. Factors like these put pressure on the automotive supply chain. “The litmus test for the industry will come after Diwali,” he adds.

December also traditionally sees higher auto sales as companies offer big discounts to clear inventories. “The real question is how the industry will perform in the January-March quarter of this fiscal,” says Bhargava. “We are not making any forecasts.” He also says a lot depends on the quantum of fiscal stimulus the Centre plans to inject into the economy. If a vaccine is developed soon, it will have a big impact on buying sentiment, not just in automotives but across all categories of goods and services.

On a sombre note, Madan Sabnavis, chief economist with Care Ratings, says ratings firms had already factored in the improved business prospects of the festive season when making GDP growth forecasts for the fiscal year. “There is indeed a recovery,” he says, “but that is com-ing from the unlocking of businesses after the lockdown was lifted. It should not be confused with a real revival in demand.” He also says it is unrealistic to expect a V-shaped recovery or a sharp rebound. Asked if there is something the Centre could do to revive demand in the short term, he says it would be a case of “too little, too late”. Had the gov-ernment taken such steps some three months ago, it could have expected to see some results by October. Even so, the government should not miss out on an opportunity to give consumer spending a push through further stimulus mea-sures to help the economy rebound. n

E C O N O M Y

scheme. “The LTC scheme includes [benefits for] automobile [purchas-es], and we hope this further improves sales,” says Bhargava.

The e-commerce sector, which had already seen robust sales during the pandemic as a result of people prefer-ring to buy essentials online rather than physically visit shops, has seen a further growth over the past few months. Online sales festivals by Amazon, Flipkart and Snapdeal, where deep dis-counts were on offer, received a strong response in the October 15-19 period. According to estimates by RedSeer Consulting, an online sales tracking firm, e-tailers saw about $3.1 billion (Rs 23,000 crore) worth of goods being sold in the first 4.5 days of this period. This is about 77 per cent of what the consulting firm had projected for the first round of the festive season.

The real estate sector, on the other hand, valued at Rs 8.8 lakh crore, has struggled during the pandemic. While there has been an uptick in property purchases in some of the larger real estate markets over the past two months, it is too early to say that buyers are returning to the mar-ket. Niranjan Hiranandani, founder and MD of the Hiranandani Group, highlights the role of structural fac-tors: “Interest rates on home loans are down to 6.9 per cent, and that has helped sales.” In Maharashtra, property registrations got a further boost from a reduction in stamp duty announced by the state government—in end-August, stamp duty was cut by three per cent on transactions between September 1 and December 31, and two per cent between January 1 and March 31. This appears to have had some effect—property registrations in September rose 26 per cent to 240,333, compared to the same month the previous year, according to media reports. In October, until the 20th of the month, there were 168,852 registrations, 87 per cent of the number in the same month last year.

According to a report by PropTiger, the third quarter of calendar year 2020 saw an 85 per cent increase in home sales, rising to 35,132 units, compared to the second quarter, in the top eight cities—the Mumbai Metropolitan Region

(MMR), the National Capital Region, Hyderabad, Benga-luru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Chennai and Pune. However, compared to July-September 2019, sales during the quarter fell 57 per cent, which indicates that the real estate sector is still in a precarious position. “The sector has always had its ups and downs,” says Hiranandani. “However, the lockdown has extended its woes.”

The travel and tourism sector, among the worst-hit by the pandemic, is struggling to regain its footing. For the winter schedule starting end-October, the DGCA (Director-

Experts say the Centre should not

miss out on an opportunity to give consumer

spending a push through new stimulus

measures

S h o p p e r s a t B h a d r a F o r t m a r k e t , A h m e d a b a d

Several sectors, including automobiles, retail, e-tail and property, have reported an uptick in sales

POINTS OF GOOD CHEER

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

500,000

0JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN

JUN

JUL

JUL

AUG

AUG

SEP

SEP

2020

DOMESTIC AUTO SALES

RETAIL REVIVAL

70%60%50%40%

HOME SALES*

*In the top eight cities: NCR, MMR, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Ahmedabad, Chennai,

Pune. Data for calendar year 2020 (Source: PropTiger)

18,99035,132

ONLINE GROWTH

Source: RedSeer Consulting

Value of goods sold by online firms Amazon, Flipkart and Snapdeal in the first few days of their festive season mega sales, 77 per cent of the total sales projected for the first round of the festive season

$3.1 bn

Source: CMIE

Q2 2020

Q3 2020

Sales in 2020 as a percentage of sales in the same month last year

Source: Retailers Association of India

57% Drop in home sales in the July-September quarter this year compared to the

same period last year—this indicates the sector's precarious position

(~Rs 23,000 crore)

Graphic by TANMOY CHAKRABORTY

GETTY IMAGES

Festival Economy-Nov9.indd 48-49 10/28/2020 11:21:41 PM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 51

On October 26, India record-ed 45,000 new daily cases, the lowest in three months. Maharashtra, the worst-hit state, recorded 6,417 cases on October 24, a decline of 66 per cent from its peak in September. Mumbai’s daily new cases fell to below

1,000 for the first time in two months on October 27. Simultaneously, other Covid parameters in India are showing improvement: the recovery rate is 90 per cent, the case fatality ratio 1.5 and the doubling rate 97.2 days.

All this has led to the perception

that perhaps the worst is behind us, that having touched the Covid peak, we are now on a declining curve. Some have at-tributed this to the increased testing ca-pacity of various states—from just one laboratory for Covid testing in March to 1,889 labs currently and over 80 million tests till date. “Quick diagnosis means that infected individuals can isolate before they infect a second person,” says Dr Ajay Goenka, director of the Chirayu Hospital in Bhopal. “It also means that treatment can be started before the symptoms turn serious.” Others believe mandatory mask usage and improved contact tracing have helped reduce

COVID, DID YOU SAY? People shopping at the Laxmi Nagar market in East Delhi

H E A L T H C O V I D

numbers. In states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, the police have been governing mask usage in public spaces. “I feel the paranoia of the initial months has been replaced by awareness and knowledge. Even though some people do not follow rules, many still do,” says Dr Avinash Kothade, a Kolkata-based ENT specialist.

Yet, the onset of winter, the festive season and rising pollution levels are expected to fuel a second surge in Covid. Already states such as West Ben-gal, Delhi and Kerala are defying the national trend and seeing a rise in cases. Delhi’s daily Covid count was upward of 4,000 in the past week.

WINTER OF COVID DISCONTENT Preliminary research from across the world has already shown a direct relationship between cold weather, pol-lution levels and Covid-related deaths. An ecological study from Harvard Uni-versity shows that even a small rise in PM 2.5 levels can lead to an 8 per cent rise in Covid mortality. Another article on the resource website Science Direct that analysed Covid fatalities in Italy, Spain, France and Germany concluded that 78 per cent of the deaths were in regions with the highest NO2 concentra-tions, combined with lower wind flow, inhibiting pollutant dispersal.

Air quality in the NCR has been deteriorating steadily for the past week, with a rise in PM 2.5 and PM 10 levels and low wind speed. The AQI or air quality index in Delhi was a high 379 on October 27, relegating the capital’s air to the ‘very poor’ category. The number of patients suffering from lung problems, elevated allergies and other breathing problems grows every year as pollution levels rise in the NCR, says Dr Nikhil Modi, a pulmonologist and senior consultant at Apollo Hospital in Delhi. “We don’t know what the added threat of pollutants and seasonal illnesses will have on the spread of the virus and how

NOT QUITE OVER YET

THE ONSET OF WINTER AND A LAX ENFORCEMENT OF COVID PROTOCOLS COULD USHER IN A SECOND COVID WAVE. INDIA NEEDS TO TAKE HEED

CH

AND

RAD

EEP

KUM

AR

BY SONALI ACHARJEE

Second Wave-Health-Nov9.indd 50-51 10/28/2020 9:37:38 PM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 51

On October 26, India record-ed 45,000 new daily cases, the lowest in three months. Maharashtra, the worst-hit state, recorded 6,417 cases on October 24, a decline of 66 per cent from its peak in September. Mumbai’s daily new cases fell to below

1,000 for the first time in two months on October 27. Simultaneously, other Covid parameters in India are showing improvement: the recovery rate is 90 per cent, the case fatality ratio 1.5 and the doubling rate 97.2 days.

All this has led to the perception

that perhaps the worst is behind us, that having touched the Covid peak, we are now on a declining curve. Some have at-tributed this to the increased testing ca-pacity of various states—from just one laboratory for Covid testing in March to 1,889 labs currently and over 80 million tests till date. “Quick diagnosis means that infected individuals can isolate before they infect a second person,” says Dr Ajay Goenka, director of the Chirayu Hospital in Bhopal. “It also means that treatment can be started before the symptoms turn serious.” Others believe mandatory mask usage and improved contact tracing have helped reduce

COVID, DID YOU SAY? People shopping at the Laxmi Nagar market in East Delhi

H E A L T H C O V I D

numbers. In states like Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, the police have been governing mask usage in public spaces. “I feel the paranoia of the initial months has been replaced by awareness and knowledge. Even though some people do not follow rules, many still do,” says Dr Avinash Kothade, a Kolkata-based ENT specialist.

Yet, the onset of winter, the festive season and rising pollution levels are expected to fuel a second surge in Covid. Already states such as West Ben-gal, Delhi and Kerala are defying the national trend and seeing a rise in cases. Delhi’s daily Covid count was upward of 4,000 in the past week.

WINTER OF COVID DISCONTENT Preliminary research from across the world has already shown a direct relationship between cold weather, pol-lution levels and Covid-related deaths. An ecological study from Harvard Uni-versity shows that even a small rise in PM 2.5 levels can lead to an 8 per cent rise in Covid mortality. Another article on the resource website Science Direct that analysed Covid fatalities in Italy, Spain, France and Germany concluded that 78 per cent of the deaths were in regions with the highest NO2 concentra-tions, combined with lower wind flow, inhibiting pollutant dispersal.

Air quality in the NCR has been deteriorating steadily for the past week, with a rise in PM 2.5 and PM 10 levels and low wind speed. The AQI or air quality index in Delhi was a high 379 on October 27, relegating the capital’s air to the ‘very poor’ category. The number of patients suffering from lung problems, elevated allergies and other breathing problems grows every year as pollution levels rise in the NCR, says Dr Nikhil Modi, a pulmonologist and senior consultant at Apollo Hospital in Delhi. “We don’t know what the added threat of pollutants and seasonal illnesses will have on the spread of the virus and how

NOT QUITE OVER YET

THE ONSET OF WINTER AND A LAX ENFORCEMENT OF COVID PROTOCOLS COULD USHER IN A SECOND COVID WAVE. INDIA NEEDS TO TAKE HEED

CH

AND

RAD

EEP

KUM

AR

BY SONALI ACHARJEE

Second Wave-Health-Nov9.indd 50-51 10/28/2020 9:37:38 PM

52 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 53

it will attack individuals. We do know that air pollution adds pressure on the lungs and can increase susceptibility toward severe Covid cases,” he says.

This can lead to a corresponding rise in mortality. Delhi, for instance, recorded 52 deaths on October 26, the highest since July. “Any inflamma-tion or infection in the lungs is likely to make Covid cases more serious,” says Dr Randeep Guleria, director of AIIMS, Delhi. “In certain modelling studies in China and Europe, it has already been shown that increase in pollutants and increase in contracting other airborne infections have led to a spike in Covid mortality.”

More worryingly, while pollu-tion is limited to a few states in the country, the coming winter is not. Viral infections are known to multiply faster at lower temperatures, and epidemiologists have warned that winter might trigger a storm of cases. “Respiratory viruses thrive in the win-ter,” says Dr V.K. Paul of NITI Aayog. The think tank is already predicting a second wave in India even as the first begins to subside.

Winters could also reverse the ad-vantage India had so far: a low death rate on account of having the world’s largest young population. Doctors are not sure of the impact winter and pollution will have on the health and resilience of the young. As Dr Paul says, “We need to take precautions.”

Taking precaution has indeed bec ome paramount given the com-placency among people regarding the use of masks and distancing proto-cols in the middle of festival season. Images of crowded shopping centres, streets and private parties have been circulating on social media. A yearn-ing for a return to normalcy and the easing of lockdown restrictions are other factors. The return of students to universities and resumption of travel are said to have contributed to the second wave in the West. In India, the easing of travel restrictions is said to have led to the resurgence of Covid in Kerala. Having brought down the Covid numbers to just 54 new cases

on June 14, the state saw 11,755 cases on October 10. With 93,000 active cases on October 27, Kerala is now the second worst-affected after Maharashtra.

“I don’t think now is the time for carelessness,” says Dr K. Srinath Reddy, president, PFHI (Public Health Foun-dation of India). “In Europe and the US, after stringent measures, they let their guard down, leading to a resurgence in cases. We cannot declare that the battle is over in India and adopt an air of relaxation. The moment you have large crowds, you will see a resurgence. A sec-ond wave, keeping in mind the winter, could be worse. We must continue to be vigilant till at least next year.”

A WORLD IN THE GRIP OF A SECOND WAVE India should heed the dramatic second wave of Covid that has gripped nations across Europe. According to the Euro-pean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDPC), the region has over 200,000 new Covid cases, a substantial rise considering new cases had fallen to below 15,000 in July. This time, even countries that were less affected earlier (Germany, for example), have not been spared. In France, the number of confirmed infections has jumped to over one million; in Italy, there were 19,000 new cases on October 23. The WHO has warned the entire northern hemisphere to be on alert.

Meanwhile, things continue to deteriorate in the US. On October 24, the country recorded 84,000 new cases, its highest daily increase since the pan-demic began. A study published in the journal Nature Medicine predicts half a million Covid deaths by February 2021,

from the 224,000 deaths recorded so far, one of the highest in the world.

“The virus never went away in any part of the world,” says Dr Reddy. “It was suppressed and controlled through containment measures. The minute you lift restrictions and forget the highly infectious nature of Covid, you will see cases rise again.”

Dr Om Shrivastava, an infectious disease specialist from Mumbai, agrees entirely. “A contagious disease cannot be eliminated overnight,” he says. “De-spite warnings, many countries became complacent as cases began to reduce. Now they are back to a stage where only a strict lockdown can help.”

The UK, for instance, has imple-mented a ‘rule of six’ where no more than six people are allowed to gather. French president Emmanuel Macron has said that a curfew taking effect for

two-thirds of his country on October 23 night could be tightened further if it shows no results. Italy has begun imple-menting lockdown measures as well.

WHAT INDIA NEEDS TO DO Will another round of lockdowns be an option for India? The imposition of one of the harshest lockdowns in the world has already taken a toll on the country’s economy, with India faring worse than almost any other major economy. It needs to explore other alternatives. A report by JP Morgan on the second wave in Europe advocates heavier testing and contract tracing. ‘The efficacy of test-and-trace regimes is multidimensional and depends on the speed at which infec-tious people are identified, the number of their contacts that are traced quickly, and the compliance regarding isolation requirements,’ it says. The report also

recommends strict enforcement of mask usage, saying that the degree of pun-ishment for not wearing a mask could indicate ‘that compliance will be higher in countries with greater financial conse-quences for non-compliance’. The Neth-erlands is one such example. The country has been hit particularly badly with Covid and patients are being airlifted to Germany for treatment as hospitals face a crisis of beds. ‘It is certainly the case that mask requirements and fines are the least onerous in the Netherlands, which has seen the most dramatic increase in new infections. Meanwhile, Italy has among the tightest requirements and the highest fines, and the second wave in Italy is much more moderate than in the Netherlands,’ the report says.

Studies have repeatedly emphasised that masks help reduce Covid cases and deaths significantly. Yet, many in India

continue to ignore mask requirements. To increase awareness among people, the Union ministry of information and broadcasting has launched a jan andolan (people’s participation cam-paign). Involving frontline workers, the massive outreach campaign focuses on wearing masks and practising hand hygiene and physical distancing.

“Wearing masks is a behavioural change,” says Delhi-based behaviour specialist Manu Singh. “It requires some sort of incentive. Fear and punishment are not driving factors any more. People are not afraid of the virus because of the low death figures. Equally, punishment in India has never really worked to enforce rules. Hence, the best bet would be to appeal to an in-dividual’s sense of community and civic responsibility. If the public believes their actions will protect the country, they might remain vigilant.” Dr B.N. Gangadhar, director, Nimhans, Ben-galuru, adds: “Emotional and logical incentives work to change behaviour.”

In the months ahead, experts say three factors remain crucial—the indi-vidual, the community and the health-care system. The first two demand permanent behavioural change to keep the infection from spreading while the latter needs investment and planning to cope with any dramatic spikes in cases. India could use the respite provided by the slowdown in cases to prepare for any potential second wave. Hospitals have already been acquiring more beds, healthcare staff and fleets of ambu-lances. Delhi, for instance, has prepared for 15,000 new cases daily. Maharash-tra has spent Rs 6 crore on 5,000 Covid care coaches with 80,000 isolation beds. The Tamil Nadu government has added 1,000 oxygen beds at Chennai’s Rajiv Gandhi Government General Hospital. Doctors say even if there is a second wave, the system is better pre-pared to handle it now than it was at the start. “Symptoms are still erratic, but we have some experience and infrastruc-ture now,” says Dr N.N. Mathur, direc-tor, Lady Hardinge Hospital in Delhi. One hopes it will be enough to keep any second wave at bay. n

WINTER MAY REVERSE THE ADVANTAGE OF LOW

MORTALITY INDIA HAS OWING TO ITS LARGELY

YOUNG POPULATION

A GLOBAL CRISIS

HOW INDIA CAN AVOID A SECOND WAVE

Countries are grappling with a Covid resurgence far dead-lier than the previous round

The US recorded 88,000 new cases on October 26, its highest daily Covid count yet

Europe is adding over 200,000 cases daily now—in July the number was a manageable 15,000 cases

The Netherlands had its patients airlifted to Germany as it ran out of beds recently

About 10 per cent of medical workers in the Czech Republic are infected, leading to fears of a health staff crisis ahead

About a fifth of Spain’s ICU beds are already filled up

Belgium and Britain have seen their cases double in seven days

Italy recorded 19,000 daily cases last week, the highest since the pandemic began

Iran recorded its highest Covid count last week, making it the worst-affected in West Asia

Shed complacen-cy: Even if cases are on the decline, it is too soon to assume that the virus has been eliminated. It takes only a handful of people to send the num-bers spiralling again

Continuous testing: Diagnosis is the best bet for quick treatment and isolation

Restrict mobility: Students, returning to campus after the end of the summer break, are being blamed for Europe’s second wave. India must continue reasonable restrictions on travel

Quick tracing: New studies note that for contact trac-ing to be effective it must be done quickly so that the infected individuals are quar-antined before they spread the virus

Stick to small gatherings: Experts have repeatedly warned of the dangers of large gatherings becom-ing super-spreader events where even a single carrier can infect multiple people, precipi-tating a chain of infections

Prepare for the winter: Nobody knows for sure how cold weather and pol-lution will impact the spread or progres-sion of Covid. Caution must be taken by individuals, communi-ties and hospitals to hold off a possible second wave

H E A L T H C O V I D

icon illustrations by RAJ VERMA

Second Wave-Health-Nov9.indd 52-53 10/28/2020 9:37:54 PM

52 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 53

it will attack individuals. We do know that air pollution adds pressure on the lungs and can increase susceptibility toward severe Covid cases,” he says.

This can lead to a corresponding rise in mortality. Delhi, for instance, recorded 52 deaths on October 26, the highest since July. “Any inflamma-tion or infection in the lungs is likely to make Covid cases more serious,” says Dr Randeep Guleria, director of AIIMS, Delhi. “In certain modelling studies in China and Europe, it has already been shown that increase in pollutants and increase in contracting other airborne infections have led to a spike in Covid mortality.”

More worryingly, while pollu-tion is limited to a few states in the country, the coming winter is not. Viral infections are known to multiply faster at lower temperatures, and epidemiologists have warned that winter might trigger a storm of cases. “Respiratory viruses thrive in the win-ter,” says Dr V.K. Paul of NITI Aayog. The think tank is already predicting a second wave in India even as the first begins to subside.

Winters could also reverse the ad-vantage India had so far: a low death rate on account of having the world’s largest young population. Doctors are not sure of the impact winter and pollution will have on the health and resilience of the young. As Dr Paul says, “We need to take precautions.”

Taking precaution has indeed bec ome paramount given the com-placency among people regarding the use of masks and distancing proto-cols in the middle of festival season. Images of crowded shopping centres, streets and private parties have been circulating on social media. A yearn-ing for a return to normalcy and the easing of lockdown restrictions are other factors. The return of students to universities and resumption of travel are said to have contributed to the second wave in the West. In India, the easing of travel restrictions is said to have led to the resurgence of Covid in Kerala. Having brought down the Covid numbers to just 54 new cases

on June 14, the state saw 11,755 cases on October 10. With 93,000 active cases on October 27, Kerala is now the second worst-affected after Maharashtra.

“I don’t think now is the time for carelessness,” says Dr K. Srinath Reddy, president, PFHI (Public Health Foun-dation of India). “In Europe and the US, after stringent measures, they let their guard down, leading to a resurgence in cases. We cannot declare that the battle is over in India and adopt an air of relaxation. The moment you have large crowds, you will see a resurgence. A sec-ond wave, keeping in mind the winter, could be worse. We must continue to be vigilant till at least next year.”

A WORLD IN THE GRIP OF A SECOND WAVE India should heed the dramatic second wave of Covid that has gripped nations across Europe. According to the Euro-pean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDPC), the region has over 200,000 new Covid cases, a substantial rise considering new cases had fallen to below 15,000 in July. This time, even countries that were less affected earlier (Germany, for example), have not been spared. In France, the number of confirmed infections has jumped to over one million; in Italy, there were 19,000 new cases on October 23. The WHO has warned the entire northern hemisphere to be on alert.

Meanwhile, things continue to deteriorate in the US. On October 24, the country recorded 84,000 new cases, its highest daily increase since the pan-demic began. A study published in the journal Nature Medicine predicts half a million Covid deaths by February 2021,

from the 224,000 deaths recorded so far, one of the highest in the world.

“The virus never went away in any part of the world,” says Dr Reddy. “It was suppressed and controlled through containment measures. The minute you lift restrictions and forget the highly infectious nature of Covid, you will see cases rise again.”

Dr Om Shrivastava, an infectious disease specialist from Mumbai, agrees entirely. “A contagious disease cannot be eliminated overnight,” he says. “De-spite warnings, many countries became complacent as cases began to reduce. Now they are back to a stage where only a strict lockdown can help.”

The UK, for instance, has imple-mented a ‘rule of six’ where no more than six people are allowed to gather. French president Emmanuel Macron has said that a curfew taking effect for

two-thirds of his country on October 23 night could be tightened further if it shows no results. Italy has begun imple-menting lockdown measures as well.

WHAT INDIA NEEDS TO DO Will another round of lockdowns be an option for India? The imposition of one of the harshest lockdowns in the world has already taken a toll on the country’s economy, with India faring worse than almost any other major economy. It needs to explore other alternatives. A report by JP Morgan on the second wave in Europe advocates heavier testing and contract tracing. ‘The efficacy of test-and-trace regimes is multidimensional and depends on the speed at which infec-tious people are identified, the number of their contacts that are traced quickly, and the compliance regarding isolation requirements,’ it says. The report also

recommends strict enforcement of mask usage, saying that the degree of pun-ishment for not wearing a mask could indicate ‘that compliance will be higher in countries with greater financial conse-quences for non-compliance’. The Neth-erlands is one such example. The country has been hit particularly badly with Covid and patients are being airlifted to Germany for treatment as hospitals face a crisis of beds. ‘It is certainly the case that mask requirements and fines are the least onerous in the Netherlands, which has seen the most dramatic increase in new infections. Meanwhile, Italy has among the tightest requirements and the highest fines, and the second wave in Italy is much more moderate than in the Netherlands,’ the report says.

Studies have repeatedly emphasised that masks help reduce Covid cases and deaths significantly. Yet, many in India

continue to ignore mask requirements. To increase awareness among people, the Union ministry of information and broadcasting has launched a jan andolan (people’s participation cam-paign). Involving frontline workers, the massive outreach campaign focuses on wearing masks and practising hand hygiene and physical distancing.

“Wearing masks is a behavioural change,” says Delhi-based behaviour specialist Manu Singh. “It requires some sort of incentive. Fear and punishment are not driving factors any more. People are not afraid of the virus because of the low death figures. Equally, punishment in India has never really worked to enforce rules. Hence, the best bet would be to appeal to an in-dividual’s sense of community and civic responsibility. If the public believes their actions will protect the country, they might remain vigilant.” Dr B.N. Gangadhar, director, Nimhans, Ben-galuru, adds: “Emotional and logical incentives work to change behaviour.”

In the months ahead, experts say three factors remain crucial—the indi-vidual, the community and the health-care system. The first two demand permanent behavioural change to keep the infection from spreading while the latter needs investment and planning to cope with any dramatic spikes in cases. India could use the respite provided by the slowdown in cases to prepare for any potential second wave. Hospitals have already been acquiring more beds, healthcare staff and fleets of ambu-lances. Delhi, for instance, has prepared for 15,000 new cases daily. Maharash-tra has spent Rs 6 crore on 5,000 Covid care coaches with 80,000 isolation beds. The Tamil Nadu government has added 1,000 oxygen beds at Chennai’s Rajiv Gandhi Government General Hospital. Doctors say even if there is a second wave, the system is better pre-pared to handle it now than it was at the start. “Symptoms are still erratic, but we have some experience and infrastruc-ture now,” says Dr N.N. Mathur, direc-tor, Lady Hardinge Hospital in Delhi. One hopes it will be enough to keep any second wave at bay. n

WINTER MAY REVERSE THE ADVANTAGE OF LOW

MORTALITY INDIA HAS OWING TO ITS LARGELY

YOUNG POPULATION

A GLOBAL CRISIS

HOW INDIA CAN AVOID A SECOND WAVE

Countries are grappling with a Covid resurgence far dead-lier than the previous round

The US recorded 88,000 new cases on October 26, its highest daily Covid count yet

Europe is adding over 200,000 cases daily now—in July the number was a manageable 15,000 cases

The Netherlands had its patients airlifted to Germany as it ran out of beds recently

About 10 per cent of medical workers in the Czech Republic are infected, leading to fears of a health staff crisis ahead

About a fifth of Spain’s ICU beds are already filled up

Belgium and Britain have seen their cases double in seven days

Italy recorded 19,000 daily cases last week, the highest since the pandemic began

Iran recorded its highest Covid count last week, making it the worst-affected in West Asia

Shed complacen-cy: Even if cases are on the decline, it is too soon to assume that the virus has been eliminated. It takes only a handful of people to send the num-bers spiralling again

Continuous testing: Diagnosis is the best bet for quick treatment and isolation

Restrict mobility: Students, returning to campus after the end of the summer break, are being blamed for Europe’s second wave. India must continue reasonable restrictions on travel

Quick tracing: New studies note that for contact trac-ing to be effective it must be done quickly so that the infected individuals are quar-antined before they spread the virus

Stick to small gatherings: Experts have repeatedly warned of the dangers of large gatherings becom-ing super-spreader events where even a single carrier can infect multiple people, precipi-tating a chain of infections

Prepare for the winter: Nobody knows for sure how cold weather and pol-lution will impact the spread or progres-sion of Covid. Caution must be taken by individuals, communi-ties and hospitals to hold off a possible second wave

H E A L T H C O V I D

icon illustrations by RAJ VERMA

Second Wave-Health-Nov9.indd 52-53 10/28/2020 9:37:54 PM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 55

these difficult times, with India battling both the Covid pandemic and a plummeting GDP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has prescribed atmanirb-harta (self-reliance) as a principle by which India could regain her feet. Many have agreed that this principle could well benefit the nation. In that vein, another suggestion made by the prime minister—this one on August 15, 2019, at the Red Fort—could prove helpful to the tourism sector. “Apna desh dekho (see your own country),” Prime Minister Modi said that day, urging Indians to visit at least 15 domestic tourist destinations by 2022, as this would not only help Indians discover their own heritage, but also provide a significant boost to the tourism sector. This was an idea that minister for tourism Prahlad Singh Patel reminded the assem-bled guests at the third edition of the India Today Group’s Tourism Awards, which was held online. “The two crore people who usually travel abroad should see the country,” he said. “The Northeast and Himalayan states are places to discover.”

At the beginning of the programme, India Today Group Editorial Direc-tor, Publishing, Raj Chengappa, pointed out that boosting local tourism and “going vocal for local” would be key to getting the tourism industry back on its feet. “With the macro chal-lenges facing tourism, it may be best to focus on boosting domestic or even local tour-ism,” he said. “Perhaps, in the pandemic cloud, this is a silver lining—for Indians to discover India.” Echoes and variations of this idea cropped up repeatedly through the programme, with

participants and speakers reflecting on ways to reinvent tourism, not only to resuscitate the sector, but also to revive the economy at large.

Speakers at the summit considered at length how possibilities for travel could be unlocked with-out compromising on Covid safety protocols. They also stressed the need to directly address the fear that the pandemic has wrought in people’s minds, and how this fear has made Indians prisoners in their own homes.

Picking up the thread of Indians exploring their own country, additional director general at the ministry of tourism, Rupinder Brar, noted that “responsible and sustainable eco-tourism is the mantra” of the post-Covid world. She also pointed to a collateral benefit—that as a result of the inward focus, domestic tourism is being recognised as a huge, sustainable market in terms of both supply and demand. “People are looking beyond the typical tourist spots and have become creative in crafting their own itinerary,” she said, “taking up forest treks and adventure tourism and looking to connect with nature. Instead of the five-star comforts of hotels, people are increasingly inclined toward smaller establishments and home-stays, looking for homely atmosphere and home food.”

Sanjay Kumar, Punjab’s additional chief sec-retary of tourism, pointed out that Punjab, apart from catering to tourists visiting the state itself, also serves as an on-transit destination for those visiting tourist and pilgrim sites in nearby states and Union territories such as Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. He said that since travel to these places has begun once more, it is only a mat-

ter of time before Punjab itself becomes a popular destination. He also noted that during the lockdown, the Punjab govern-ment had identified the inherent potential in developing ‘farm tourism’ as an economic sector for the state’s businesspeople. “We have ignored domestic tour-ists for too long,” he stated. “It is time to incentivise domestic tourists and bring them back to kick-start the economy.”

During the panel discus-sion—‘Hotels as Destinations in a Quarantined World’—Kapil

IN

ONE IDEA THAT MANY SPEAKERS

BROUGHT UP WAS FOR INDIANS TO

FOCUS ON DOMESTIC TOURISM—TO

REDISCOVER THEIR OWN HERITAGE

WILDLIFE DESTINATIONS

RANTHAMBORE NATIONAL PARK, SAWAI MADHOPUR

Ashok Gehlot Chief Minister, Rajasthan

HERITAGE DESTINATIONS

JAIPUR

ICONIC LANDSCAPES

STATUE OF UNITY

Vijay Rupani Chief Minister, Gujarat

FESTIVAL DESTINATIONS

DURGA PUJA

Mamata Banerjee Chief Minister, West Bengal

MOUNTAIN DESTINATIONS

MUNNAR

Pinarayi Vijayan Chief Minister, Kerala

BEST STATE

GOA

ADVENTURE DESTINATIONS

DUDHSAGAR WATERFALLS & TAMBDI SURLA WATERFALLS TREK

BEACHES & COASTAL DESTINATIONS

AGONDA BEACH

Pramod Sawant Chief Minister, Goa

A REASON TO TRAVEL The 3rd edition of the India Today Group

Tourism Awards were an occasion to honour winners and discuss ways to revive tourism

THE WINNERS

Tourism-Nov9.indd 54-55 10/28/2020 10:21:06 PM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 55

these difficult times, with India battling both the Covid pandemic and a plummeting GDP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has prescribed atmanirb-harta (self-reliance) as a principle by which India could regain her feet. Many have agreed that this principle could well benefit the nation. In that vein, another suggestion made by the prime minister—this one on August 15, 2019, at the Red Fort—could prove helpful to the tourism sector. “Apna desh dekho (see your own country),” Prime Minister Modi said that day, urging Indians to visit at least 15 domestic tourist destinations by 2022, as this would not only help Indians discover their own heritage, but also provide a significant boost to the tourism sector. This was an idea that minister for tourism Prahlad Singh Patel reminded the assem-bled guests at the third edition of the India Today Group’s Tourism Awards, which was held online. “The two crore people who usually travel abroad should see the country,” he said. “The Northeast and Himalayan states are places to discover.”

At the beginning of the programme, India Today Group Editorial Direc-tor, Publishing, Raj Chengappa, pointed out that boosting local tourism and “going vocal for local” would be key to getting the tourism industry back on its feet. “With the macro chal-lenges facing tourism, it may be best to focus on boosting domestic or even local tour-ism,” he said. “Perhaps, in the pandemic cloud, this is a silver lining—for Indians to discover India.” Echoes and variations of this idea cropped up repeatedly through the programme, with

participants and speakers reflecting on ways to reinvent tourism, not only to resuscitate the sector, but also to revive the economy at large.

Speakers at the summit considered at length how possibilities for travel could be unlocked with-out compromising on Covid safety protocols. They also stressed the need to directly address the fear that the pandemic has wrought in people’s minds, and how this fear has made Indians prisoners in their own homes.

Picking up the thread of Indians exploring their own country, additional director general at the ministry of tourism, Rupinder Brar, noted that “responsible and sustainable eco-tourism is the mantra” of the post-Covid world. She also pointed to a collateral benefit—that as a result of the inward focus, domestic tourism is being recognised as a huge, sustainable market in terms of both supply and demand. “People are looking beyond the typical tourist spots and have become creative in crafting their own itinerary,” she said, “taking up forest treks and adventure tourism and looking to connect with nature. Instead of the five-star comforts of hotels, people are increasingly inclined toward smaller establishments and home-stays, looking for homely atmosphere and home food.”

Sanjay Kumar, Punjab’s additional chief sec-retary of tourism, pointed out that Punjab, apart from catering to tourists visiting the state itself, also serves as an on-transit destination for those visiting tourist and pilgrim sites in nearby states and Union territories such as Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh. He said that since travel to these places has begun once more, it is only a mat-

ter of time before Punjab itself becomes a popular destination. He also noted that during the lockdown, the Punjab govern-ment had identified the inherent potential in developing ‘farm tourism’ as an economic sector for the state’s businesspeople. “We have ignored domestic tour-ists for too long,” he stated. “It is time to incentivise domestic tourists and bring them back to kick-start the economy.”

During the panel discus-sion—‘Hotels as Destinations in a Quarantined World’—Kapil

IN

ONE IDEA THAT MANY SPEAKERS

BROUGHT UP WAS FOR INDIANS TO

FOCUS ON DOMESTIC TOURISM—TO

REDISCOVER THEIR OWN HERITAGE

WILDLIFE DESTINATIONS

RANTHAMBORE NATIONAL PARK, SAWAI MADHOPUR

Ashok Gehlot Chief Minister, Rajasthan

HERITAGE DESTINATIONS

JAIPUR

ICONIC LANDSCAPES

STATUE OF UNITY

Vijay Rupani Chief Minister, Gujarat

FESTIVAL DESTINATIONS

DURGA PUJA

Mamata Banerjee Chief Minister, West Bengal

MOUNTAIN DESTINATIONS

MUNNAR

Pinarayi Vijayan Chief Minister, Kerala

BEST STATE

GOA

ADVENTURE DESTINATIONS

DUDHSAGAR WATERFALLS & TAMBDI SURLA WATERFALLS TREK

BEACHES & COASTAL DESTINATIONS

AGONDA BEACH

Pramod Sawant Chief Minister, Goa

A REASON TO TRAVEL The 3rd edition of the India Today Group

Tourism Awards were an occasion to honour winners and discuss ways to revive tourism

THE WINNERS

Tourism-Nov9.indd 54-55 10/28/2020 10:21:06 PM

56 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020

Chopra, founder and CEO of the Postcard Hotel, said that leisure hotels were recovering business at an increasing pace as many Indians, tired of being confined to their homes, have now begun looking for weekend getaways. “Leisure hotels are already back to 50-60 per cent of pre-Covid business levels,” he said. “However, luxury business hotels in cities have been severely impacted and revenue is down by 80-90 per cent. This is because people are not travelling for work—business is down and people have adapted to new ways of working.”

On a related note, Sonu Shiv-dasani, CEO of resort chain Soneva, pointed out that leisure travellers are far more productive for the city, state and national economies than business travellers since they spend more—on visiting tourist sites, on going to theatres, museums and other cultural sites, on eating out—while the latter group typically did little more than attend to their own business on visits to other cities before flying back home once more. Shivdasani’s chain of Soneva hotels in the Maldives has seen an increase in bookings for October, November and December because of pent-up demand.

Moving forward, many hoteliers have begun offering private and highly personalised experiences to

draw tourists. Saurabh Rai, executive vice-president at Preferred Hotels & Resorts for South East Asia, the Middle East and Australia, noted that resorts and regional getaways were doing better than other hotels, saying that this underlined the growing demand for experiential travel. “Covid has taught us the importance of leisure, of purposeless travel,” he said. “It is a big moment of realisation for

many —that life is short. [The pandemic] has given many people a wake-up call about making ‘the now’ count, rather than waiting for tomorrow.”

In discussions about potential solutions to revive the tourism sector, Jenu Devan, the commissioner of tourism in Gujarat, said that the state government was looking at promoting specific locations to boost demand. He also said that they have come up with two tourism policies—heritage tour-ism and revised home-stay tourism which are expected to be huge draws as the country opens up once more. Similarly, Vishal Dev, the commis-sioner of tourism in Odisha, said that his state is looking to promote eco-tourism destinations.

V. Kapur, additional chief secre-tary in Tamil Nadu, suggested that states should look at ways to incen-tivise travellers and encourage them to visit. He suggested that tourists be offered direct incentives—such as dis-counts on travelling—and that efforts be made to restore and improve flight connectivity and instil confidence in visitors so that they are reassured that it is safe to visit.

One encouraging takeaway from the programme also came from com-missioner Dev, who noted that a sur-vey conducted by the state government had found that 81 per cent of tourists wanted to come back again, and that 80 per cent said they had missed trav-elling during the pandemic.

Perhaps, as India and Indians become more accustomed to the safety protocols of the post-Covid world, it will become easier for people to take up their backpacks once more. As commissioner Devan said, the need of the time is “thoda hat ke socho (think differently)”—for people to inspire their inner travellers once more. And there are plenty of options, from well-ness tourism to eco-tourism, adven-ture tourism and much more. n

THE TWO CRORE PEOPLE WHO

USUALLY TRAVEL ABROAD SHOULD

SEE THE COUNTRY. THE NORTHEAST AND HIMALAYAN STATES

ARE PLACES TO DISCOVER ”

—Prahlad Patel, Minister for tourism

Tourism-Nov9.indd 56 10/28/2020 10:21:26 PM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 59

SUSANNA CLARKE’S PIRANESI: AN ENCHANTMENT PG

WORLD FOOTBALL’S DIGITAL GOALS PG 62

THE NEW WAVE OF MASCULINE PHYSICAL

CULTURE PG 6

Q&A WITH MANASI

JOSHI PG 64

With his unputdownable sixth novel, Hari Kunzru brings to life our worst nightmares

WAKING THE DREAD

B O O K S

“The world is

unliveable...but we

have to continue.

That’s the kind of

everyday heroism we

have to try and find

in ourselves”

ALA

MY

STO

CK

PH

OTO

Leisure-Nov9.indd 59 10/28/2020 4:39:46 PM

95 0

58 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 59

B O O K SReleased in 1999, The Matrix made literal a well-worn philosophical belief—the world around us is only a simulation. In one of its most iconic scenes, Neo, a messiah for the in-ternet age, is asked to choose between two pills, one blue and the other red. While the blue pill would allow him to forever live in blissful ignorance, the red pill offers realisation, an un-

derstanding of stark and uncomfortable truths, a chance to see how deep the rabbit hole of technology, control and consciousness really goes.

Speaking to india today via Zoom, author Hari Kun-zru confesses he was a fan of The Matrix: “The film puts our sense of reality on pause and reality is then seen as being this constructed thing—I thought it was a fantastic film.” Like Neo, the narrator of Kunzru’s latest novel, Red Pill, also sometimes loses himself in the labyrinth that is the internet but, unlike Neo, he is no hacker. He is a writer who finds himself bored in Berlin. Having been awarded a fellowship at the prestigious Deuter Centre, he hopes to write about the construction of ‘self ’ in lyric poetry. Tragically, however, a full-blown middle-age crisis leaves him too self-involved to work. He spends much of his time binge-watching Blue Lives, an American cop show whose nihilism, he finds, is as disturbing as its violence.

Appropriated by America’s alt-right, the term “red-pilling” is often employed to describe a political radicalisa-tion, an awakening that vilifies all liberal and progressive values. Anton, the creator of Blue Lives, offers the narrator similar knowledge after he meets him at a Berlin party. Kunzru’s narrator finds it hard to swallow. His mind, as a result, quickly begins to unravel. His response to Anton’s terror, though, is not wholly unreasonable. His madness is not without method. “He is at his sanest when he is in the midst of his breakdown,” says Kunzru. “His apprehension of the world is a true apprehension.”

In a novel that tackles several ques-tions of personhood, it somehow makes sense that the first-person ‘I’ is never given a name. “It was a way of drawing the reader into some kind of complic-ity with the narrator and giving him an instability as well,” says Kunzru. As the fears of Kunzru’s narrator start to get the better of him, it becomes hard to not think of his turmoil as universal. Like him, we have all, at some point or another, wondered, “If the world changed, would I be able to protect my family?” We, too, have asked if our privacy has become a casualty of increased surveillance. We’ve all broken down. It proves hard to put down Red Pill. You want to know what hap-pens to the narrator, but Kunzru also does something uncanny—he persuades you that his protagonist’s trag-edies could well be yours.

Kunzru has given the narrator some of his biography. They both live in Brooklyn. Kunzru, too, spent a part of 2016 at a writer’s residency in Berlin. They have Indian fathers and they both sometimes worry about their chil-dren’s safety. Kunzru, 50, is now the father of a seven-year-old son and a four-year-old daughter. Being a parent, he says, has transformed him. “Having children changed a lot of things for me. As a man, I think, you move through space with relative confidence. I remember being more concerned about being threatening to other people than being threatened myself. And then, suddenly, as a father, I was aware of this sense of risk which I try calculating and managing at all times.”

What separates the narrator from Kunzru is, perhaps, his individualism. “What he lacks is solidarity with oth-ers. He feels isolated. One route that he might have to deal with his fears is to be part of something larger than himself,” says Kunzru. As the novel inches closer to its denouement—the 2016 US presidential election—Kunzru lends his protagonist the one consolation that softens his

own world: the pleasures of family. The narrator finds in reciprocity comforts his singularity never affords.

At one point in Red Pill, the narrator asks, “What if the reasonable reaction [to terror] is endless horrified scream-ing?” When the same question is put to Kunzru, he says, “The world is unliveable, yes. It is terrible, but, yet, we have to con-tinue. That’s the kind of everyday heroism that we have to try and find in ourselves.” Red Pill, Kunzru’s sixth novel, leaves us squarely in the here and now—Donald Trump as leader of the free world. With

the 2020 election around the corner, is the author worried that history might repeat itself? He says he thinks Trump will lose, “but if there is a disputed result, if he is able to muddy the waters enough, this could be the last demo-cratic moment of the US.” In the end, one feels Kunzru’s narrator had it right all along. The only life worth living is the one without fear. n

—Shreevatsa Nevatia

Hari Kunzru does something

uncanny—he per-suades you that his protagonist’s tragedies could

well be yours

RED PILLby Hari Kunzru

SCRIBNER `599; 304 pages

PIRANESIby Susanna Clarke

BLOOMSBURY `699; 272 pages

one who bestowed the name Piranesi upon the narrator. The Other is similar in age and appear-ance, but he is not always present and he is not very nice. There are birds too, and seaweed and fishes. The seaweed must be dried to be used as fuel, the fish must be caught for food.

None of it makes any sense! We follow Piranesi around in a fog of uncertainty, alternately afraid for and charmed by him. He is genuinely kind, with a child-like openness. It’s impossible not to love him. It’s equally impossible to believe that he’s telling us the truth. These infinite halls, for instance, cannot possibly exist in reality. Yet his daily life follows the usual laws of physics: in order to set the sea-weed alight, he needs matches. In order to reach the upper level of the mansion, he can’t just float, he needs to climb up. Then those journals he keeps—how did he get them? When did he learn to write? The questions pile up, restless as the tides that thunder through these halls.

The seething water is a reminder that, even though Piranesi seems at peace with his fate, darkness is afoot. There have been disappearances and deaths. A mystery is waiting to reveal itself, but of course we can’t see it because we’re buried in the heart of it without a clue that it was there. The cleverness of the plotting lies in the way that a conventional mystery has been

turned inside out. Clarke is a wonderful writer.

Her 2006 novel, Jonathan Strange & Mr Norrell, was almost too rich with wit and artifice. This one, by contrast, is deceptively slight. It’s deeper on the inside than its mod-est size suggests. What appears to be a mildly engaging narrative puzzle becomes a meditation on personal history, loyalty, trust and truth.

Piranesi’s journals move the narrative along with wonder-ful economy, deepening the uncertainty about what is or isn’t true. When, for instance, he finds that entries have been made without his knowledge, in his own handwriting, he has no choice but to doubt his sanity.

Piranesi’s struggle to maintain control over the chronology of

events becomes the central thread of suspense.

Unlike the ball of twine that Theseus used while escaping the Minotaur’s cave,

Piranesi’s thread serves only to bind

himself and the reader ever more tightly within

the darkness.Shadows multiply within

the great halls, new characters emerge from between the fault-lines of memory, even as the doubts that pecked at us in the early pages begin to fade. The dream-like quality of the book is maintained so gently, so lightly, that we barely know we are asleep, until we awake. Smiling at its beauty. n

—Manjula Padmanabhan

PIRANESI’S

struggle to maintain

control over the

chronology of events

becomes the book’s

central thread of

suspense

The narrator of Susanna Clarke’s book, a young man whose name might be Piranesi, speaks to us with endearing directness. He lives alone, he says, in soaring marble halls, surrounded by clouds, tides and beautiful statues.

His closest companions are the skeletal remains of 13 people. But wait, he’s not entirely alone. There’s an “Other”. Indeed, that man is the

An EnchantmentSusanna Clarke’s Piranesi is a meditation on personal history, loyalty, trust and truth

T

SA

RA

H LEE

/BLO

OM

SB

UR

Y P

UB

LISH

ING

Leisure-Nov9.indd 60-61 10/28/2020 5:19:12 PM

58 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 59

B O O K SReleased in 1999, The Matrix made literal a well-worn philosophical belief—the world around us is only a simulation. In one of its most iconic scenes, Neo, a messiah for the in-ternet age, is asked to choose between two pills, one blue and the other red. While the blue pill would allow him to forever live in blissful ignorance, the red pill offers realisation, an un-

derstanding of stark and uncomfortable truths, a chance to see how deep the rabbit hole of technology, control and consciousness really goes.

Speaking to india today via Zoom, author Hari Kun-zru confesses he was a fan of The Matrix: “The film puts our sense of reality on pause and reality is then seen as being this constructed thing—I thought it was a fantastic film.” Like Neo, the narrator of Kunzru’s latest novel, Red Pill, also sometimes loses himself in the labyrinth that is the internet but, unlike Neo, he is no hacker. He is a writer who finds himself bored in Berlin. Having been awarded a fellowship at the prestigious Deuter Centre, he hopes to write about the construction of ‘self ’ in lyric poetry. Tragically, however, a full-blown middle-age crisis leaves him too self-involved to work. He spends much of his time binge-watching Blue Lives, an American cop show whose nihilism, he finds, is as disturbing as its violence.

Appropriated by America’s alt-right, the term “red-pilling” is often employed to describe a political radicalisa-tion, an awakening that vilifies all liberal and progressive values. Anton, the creator of Blue Lives, offers the narrator similar knowledge after he meets him at a Berlin party. Kunzru’s narrator finds it hard to swallow. His mind, as a result, quickly begins to unravel. His response to Anton’s terror, though, is not wholly unreasonable. His madness is not without method. “He is at his sanest when he is in the midst of his breakdown,” says Kunzru. “His apprehension of the world is a true apprehension.”

In a novel that tackles several ques-tions of personhood, it somehow makes sense that the first-person ‘I’ is never given a name. “It was a way of drawing the reader into some kind of complic-ity with the narrator and giving him an instability as well,” says Kunzru. As the fears of Kunzru’s narrator start to get the better of him, it becomes hard to not think of his turmoil as universal. Like him, we have all, at some point or another, wondered, “If the world changed, would I be able to protect my family?” We, too, have asked if our privacy has become a casualty of increased surveillance. We’ve all broken down. It proves hard to put down Red Pill. You want to know what hap-pens to the narrator, but Kunzru also does something uncanny—he persuades you that his protagonist’s trag-edies could well be yours.

Kunzru has given the narrator some of his biography. They both live in Brooklyn. Kunzru, too, spent a part of 2016 at a writer’s residency in Berlin. They have Indian fathers and they both sometimes worry about their chil-dren’s safety. Kunzru, 50, is now the father of a seven-year-old son and a four-year-old daughter. Being a parent, he says, has transformed him. “Having children changed a lot of things for me. As a man, I think, you move through space with relative confidence. I remember being more concerned about being threatening to other people than being threatened myself. And then, suddenly, as a father, I was aware of this sense of risk which I try calculating and managing at all times.”

What separates the narrator from Kunzru is, perhaps, his individualism. “What he lacks is solidarity with oth-ers. He feels isolated. One route that he might have to deal with his fears is to be part of something larger than himself,” says Kunzru. As the novel inches closer to its denouement—the 2016 US presidential election—Kunzru lends his protagonist the one consolation that softens his

own world: the pleasures of family. The narrator finds in reciprocity comforts his singularity never affords.

At one point in Red Pill, the narrator asks, “What if the reasonable reaction [to terror] is endless horrified scream-ing?” When the same question is put to Kunzru, he says, “The world is unliveable, yes. It is terrible, but, yet, we have to con-tinue. That’s the kind of everyday heroism that we have to try and find in ourselves.” Red Pill, Kunzru’s sixth novel, leaves us squarely in the here and now—Donald Trump as leader of the free world. With

the 2020 election around the corner, is the author worried that history might repeat itself? He says he thinks Trump will lose, “but if there is a disputed result, if he is able to muddy the waters enough, this could be the last demo-cratic moment of the US.” In the end, one feels Kunzru’s narrator had it right all along. The only life worth living is the one without fear. n

—Shreevatsa Nevatia

Hari Kunzru does something

uncanny—he per-suades you that his protagonist’s tragedies could

well be yours

RED PILLby Hari Kunzru

SCRIBNER `599; 304 pages

PIRANESIby Susanna Clarke

BLOOMSBURY `699; 272 pages

one who bestowed the name Piranesi upon the narrator. The Other is similar in age and appear-ance, but he is not always present and he is not very nice. There are birds too, and seaweed and fishes. The seaweed must be dried to be used as fuel, the fish must be caught for food.

None of it makes any sense! We follow Piranesi around in a fog of uncertainty, alternately afraid for and charmed by him. He is genuinely kind, with a child-like openness. It’s impossible not to love him. It’s equally impossible to believe that he’s telling us the truth. These infinite halls, for instance, cannot possibly exist in reality. Yet his daily life follows the usual laws of physics: in order to set the sea-weed alight, he needs matches. In order to reach the upper level of the mansion, he can’t just float, he needs to climb up. Then those journals he keeps—how did he get them? When did he learn to write? The questions pile up, restless as the tides that thunder through these halls.

The seething water is a reminder that, even though Piranesi seems at peace with his fate, darkness is afoot. There have been disappearances and deaths. A mystery is waiting to reveal itself, but of course we can’t see it because we’re buried in the heart of it without a clue that it was there. The cleverness of the plotting lies in the way that a conventional mystery has been

turned inside out. Clarke is a wonderful writer.

Her 2006 novel, Jonathan Strange & Mr Norrell, was almost too rich with wit and artifice. This one, by contrast, is deceptively slight. It’s deeper on the inside than its mod-est size suggests. What appears to be a mildly engaging narrative puzzle becomes a meditation on personal history, loyalty, trust and truth.

Piranesi’s journals move the narrative along with wonder-ful economy, deepening the uncertainty about what is or isn’t true. When, for instance, he finds that entries have been made without his knowledge, in his own handwriting, he has no choice but to doubt his sanity.

Piranesi’s struggle to maintain control over the chronology of

events becomes the central thread of suspense.

Unlike the ball of twine that Theseus used while escaping the Minotaur’s cave,

Piranesi’s thread serves only to bind

himself and the reader ever more tightly within

the darkness.Shadows multiply within

the great halls, new characters emerge from between the fault-lines of memory, even as the doubts that pecked at us in the early pages begin to fade. The dream-like quality of the book is maintained so gently, so lightly, that we barely know we are asleep, until we awake. Smiling at its beauty. n

—Manjula Padmanabhan

PIRANESI’S

struggle to maintain

control over the

chronology of events

becomes the book’s

central thread of

suspense

The narrator of Susanna Clarke’s book, a young man whose name might be Piranesi, speaks to us with endearing directness. He lives alone, he says, in soaring marble halls, surrounded by clouds, tides and beautiful statues.

His closest companions are the skeletal remains of 13 people. But wait, he’s not entirely alone. There’s an “Other”. Indeed, that man is the

An EnchantmentSusanna Clarke’s Piranesi is a meditation on personal history, loyalty, trust and truth

T

SA

RA

H LEE

/BLO

OM

SB

UR

Y P

UB

LISH

ING

Leisure-Nov9.indd 60-61 10/28/2020 5:19:12 PM

60 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 61

O

Michiel Baas examines the new wave of masculine physical culture

TWILIGHT IN A KNOTTED WORLD

by Siddhartha SarmaSIMON & SCHUSTER INDIA

`599; 296 pages

Thug Life

Buff Bharat

On the face of it, there isn’t a lot to Twilight in a Knotted World by Siddhartha Sarma. The author has taken an episode usually given just one line in school history texts and magni-fied it into something bureaucratic rather than the kind of magnificent tale you expect from a historical novel. So why you can’t put the book down for even five minutes without aching to return to it is quite a mystery.

Twilight in a Knotted World is about colonial administrator Wil-liam Henry Sleeman, famous for the

elimination of ‘thuggee’, the fraternity of murderers that roamed India at a time when the only way to get from one place to another was to walk or ride. Gangs of these men assumed the vari-ous faiths, castes and jatis of travellers and inveigled themselves among them, eventually strangling them, burying the bodies and dividing the spoils among themselves. When not at this dreadful work, these men were ordinary people. But whatever their own castes and faiths, they were bonded together by a certain vocabulary and rituals that

hile the country suffers under notions of a certain ma-chismo, of 56-inch chests, bahubalis and pseudo-an-chors peacocking in military fatigues, another kind of male culture has spread among young men in India. In Muscular India, Michiel Baas takes us into a world that

has been hiding in plain sight, focusing on the milieus of men’s fitness training and body-building in urban gyms. Baas’s book reveals a whole different set of societal ligaments working under and around the bulbing of bicep and shudder of six-pack.

Across 10 years, Baas explored the phenomenon that was let loose when Shah Rukh Khan took off his shirt in Om Shanti Om. “Salman Khan was always known to be a muscular type,” says Baas, “but when Shah Rukh did it, it set off something quite different.” As we engage with Baas’s subjects, the different men he meets and hangs out with in Bombay, Delhi, Chennai and other cities, we un-derstand what that something was—in a society under the compression of several kinds of change, young men en masse bought into the idea of a radical transformation of the physical self. Earlier, the aspiration might have been to have the hero’s car and house, his gadgets and acces-sories, to dress like him, the dream now expanded to being able to undress like the hero.

For most young men from the so-called lower middle class, unlike the car, the house and gadgets, the ‘upgraded’ body seemed (and often proved to be) well within reach. With what one might call ‘the male mirror addiction’ cutting across class, the burgeoning fitness industry opened up opportunities for poorer young men who had man-aged to re-sculpt themselves to become trainers and dangle the same possibility of transformation to wealthier men. Using their “knowledge” and “bodily capital”, Baas’s informants explore a route to betterment, both economic and social.

“As new entrants to the middle class, these men are part of a grow-ing group of Indians who are actively testing the flexibility of, and ma-

noeuvrability within, Indian society,” Baas writes in his introduction. Muscular India vividly records some of the stories of this manoeuvring. The routes available to these men are twinned, one as trainers and the other, often parallel one, as body-builders winning awards in competitions and raising the profile of their personal ‘brand’. Baas manages a fine line between the individual stories he follows and mapping the nuances of the larger trend. The routes to the life upgrade are inevitably tougher than the ones to the bodily one. Often, climbing the social ladder proves to be a tougher exercise than anything the men practise with their gym equipment. How the men are perceived is also part of the challenge: many as-sume these trainers and body-builders double as goondas

or that they are available for sex work. The conclusions Baas arrives at are unexpected.

This is a book that punches well above its weight. In under 300 pages, Muscular India

opens up important questions and ideas about today’s India, and in the most ac-cessible language with a clarity of expo-

sition that is rare in current non-fiction. Baas has given us a sharp and moving

picture of one seam from the mingled tectonics of labour and dreams that make

up life in India. n—Ruchir Joshi

demanded the ‘sacrifice’ of travellers for the appeasement of a goddess.

Sleeman, too, was an ordinary man, a hard-working mid-level bureaucrat. When assigned the task of eliminating ‘thuggee’, he went after it doggedly and patiently achieved his aim. It is actually a most fascinating story, but the way Sarma tells it, can be quite tedious. Barring the opening chapter which makes you gasp, there is

no emotion in the tale. It is the Sleeman of Sarma’s imagi-

nation that takes this book to a whole other level. He is not just a coloniser.

He is a thinker who, on the one hand, is horrified by the ruthlessness of the organisation he aims to eliminate and on the other hand wonders about the unbreakable ties between people of faiths and jatis so consciously separate that nothing could bring

them together.It is Sleeman’s thoughtfulness and

his discussions with his wife Amelie and friends Brian Hodgson, Dr Horace Wilson and James Prinsep that give this book its real story: that of an India that is truly mysterious in the close ties of its people, regardless of who or what is ‘in power’ at any time and of technological advancements that ostensibly change ways of life. Twilight in a Knotted World is a book of layers upon layers. It is near-impossible to put down. n

—Kushalrani Gulab

W

The William Henry Sleeman

of Siddhartha Sarma’s imagi-

nation takes the book to a whole

new level

MUSCULAR INDIAMasculinity, Mobility & the New Middle Classby Michiel BaasCONTEXT`699; 313 pages

THE

CRIMINAL

CODE

The Gangster’s Gita by Agni Sreedhar, a former gang-ster from the Bengaluru underworld, who since his

reformation has gone on to receive many literary awards, does not take the easy route of offering neat redemption or predictable come-uppance. What sets it apart from many such undertakings which aim to provide a glimpse into the criminal underworld is how acces-sible it is. The translator’s note men-tions how the author wished for the book’s English translation to be as simple as the original in Kannada. This is ascribed to Sreedhar’s ap-parent distaste for prolix text and his fascination for concise authors such as Albert Camus.

This fascination does not end at brevity. Much of the book, which is a short but engaging retelling of Sreedhar’s discomfort with the task of taking out a fellow hitman, builds on an existential confusion that was explored similarly by Camus in The Stranger. In that landmark novel, Camus presented Meursault, an un-remorseful protagonist who claims agency on his actions against the absurdity of society which deems him psychopathic for not weeping at his mother’s funeral and subse-quently concludes that he must be

guilty of the murder he is accused of. However, unlike the existential-ism of Camus’ protagonist which is triggered by the slights of fate, Sreedhar’s own existential dilemma stems from being put in a position where he has no choice but to be as cruel as the societal constructs that wronged Meursault.

The minimalism in Sreedhar’s writing is conducive to pondering bigger questions that the author wishes to put forward. Law-abiding citizens are often fascinated by the inner workings of the criminals liv-ing amongst them. Popular culture has always glamorised the gangster lifestyle because it allows the audi-ence to temporarily step into the shoes of characters unlike them and have their flights of violent fancy. They imagine that by understand-ing the criminal thought process, they can perhaps deduce what dif-ferentiates them from the crimi-nals. The Gangster’s Gita, written as it is by a former gangster giving a matter-of-fact account, doesn’t al-low the reader an easy vicarious ride and asks if a life of violence is really all that different from our capital-istic understanding of the modern world where survival is slowly be-coming the only real objective. n

—Abhishek Sikhwal

THE GANGSTER’S GITAby Agni Sreedhar;

translated by Prathibha Nandakumar

EKA `250; 120 pages

Memoir meets fiction in this elegantly understated

underworld novel

In a society

undergoing several

changes, young men

en masse bought into

the idea of a radical

transformation of the

physical self

A CURIOUS BUT GRIPPING NOVEL REVISITS A GRUESOME CHAPTER OF INDIA’S COLONIAL HISTORY

LEISURE

Leisure-Nov9.indd 62-63 10/28/2020 4:41:25 PM

60 INDIA TODAY NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 61

O

Michiel Baas examines the new wave of masculine physical culture

TWILIGHT IN A KNOTTED WORLD

by Siddhartha SarmaSIMON & SCHUSTER INDIA

`599; 296 pages

Thug Life

Buff Bharat

On the face of it, there isn’t a lot to Twilight in a Knotted World by Siddhartha Sarma. The author has taken an episode usually given just one line in school history texts and magni-fied it into something bureaucratic rather than the kind of magnificent tale you expect from a historical novel. So why you can’t put the book down for even five minutes without aching to return to it is quite a mystery.

Twilight in a Knotted World is about colonial administrator Wil-liam Henry Sleeman, famous for the

elimination of ‘thuggee’, the fraternity of murderers that roamed India at a time when the only way to get from one place to another was to walk or ride. Gangs of these men assumed the vari-ous faiths, castes and jatis of travellers and inveigled themselves among them, eventually strangling them, burying the bodies and dividing the spoils among themselves. When not at this dreadful work, these men were ordinary people. But whatever their own castes and faiths, they were bonded together by a certain vocabulary and rituals that

hile the country suffers under notions of a certain ma-chismo, of 56-inch chests, bahubalis and pseudo-an-chors peacocking in military fatigues, another kind of male culture has spread among young men in India. In Muscular India, Michiel Baas takes us into a world that

has been hiding in plain sight, focusing on the milieus of men’s fitness training and body-building in urban gyms. Baas’s book reveals a whole different set of societal ligaments working under and around the bulbing of bicep and shudder of six-pack.

Across 10 years, Baas explored the phenomenon that was let loose when Shah Rukh Khan took off his shirt in Om Shanti Om. “Salman Khan was always known to be a muscular type,” says Baas, “but when Shah Rukh did it, it set off something quite different.” As we engage with Baas’s subjects, the different men he meets and hangs out with in Bombay, Delhi, Chennai and other cities, we un-derstand what that something was—in a society under the compression of several kinds of change, young men en masse bought into the idea of a radical transformation of the physical self. Earlier, the aspiration might have been to have the hero’s car and house, his gadgets and acces-sories, to dress like him, the dream now expanded to being able to undress like the hero.

For most young men from the so-called lower middle class, unlike the car, the house and gadgets, the ‘upgraded’ body seemed (and often proved to be) well within reach. With what one might call ‘the male mirror addiction’ cutting across class, the burgeoning fitness industry opened up opportunities for poorer young men who had man-aged to re-sculpt themselves to become trainers and dangle the same possibility of transformation to wealthier men. Using their “knowledge” and “bodily capital”, Baas’s informants explore a route to betterment, both economic and social.

“As new entrants to the middle class, these men are part of a grow-ing group of Indians who are actively testing the flexibility of, and ma-

noeuvrability within, Indian society,” Baas writes in his introduction. Muscular India vividly records some of the stories of this manoeuvring. The routes available to these men are twinned, one as trainers and the other, often parallel one, as body-builders winning awards in competitions and raising the profile of their personal ‘brand’. Baas manages a fine line between the individual stories he follows and mapping the nuances of the larger trend. The routes to the life upgrade are inevitably tougher than the ones to the bodily one. Often, climbing the social ladder proves to be a tougher exercise than anything the men practise with their gym equipment. How the men are perceived is also part of the challenge: many as-sume these trainers and body-builders double as goondas

or that they are available for sex work. The conclusions Baas arrives at are unexpected.

This is a book that punches well above its weight. In under 300 pages, Muscular India

opens up important questions and ideas about today’s India, and in the most ac-cessible language with a clarity of expo-

sition that is rare in current non-fiction. Baas has given us a sharp and moving

picture of one seam from the mingled tectonics of labour and dreams that make

up life in India. n—Ruchir Joshi

demanded the ‘sacrifice’ of travellers for the appeasement of a goddess.

Sleeman, too, was an ordinary man, a hard-working mid-level bureaucrat. When assigned the task of eliminating ‘thuggee’, he went after it doggedly and patiently achieved his aim. It is actually a most fascinating story, but the way Sarma tells it, can be quite tedious. Barring the opening chapter which makes you gasp, there is

no emotion in the tale. It is the Sleeman of Sarma’s imagi-

nation that takes this book to a whole other level. He is not just a coloniser.

He is a thinker who, on the one hand, is horrified by the ruthlessness of the organisation he aims to eliminate and on the other hand wonders about the unbreakable ties between people of faiths and jatis so consciously separate that nothing could bring

them together.It is Sleeman’s thoughtfulness and

his discussions with his wife Amelie and friends Brian Hodgson, Dr Horace Wilson and James Prinsep that give this book its real story: that of an India that is truly mysterious in the close ties of its people, regardless of who or what is ‘in power’ at any time and of technological advancements that ostensibly change ways of life. Twilight in a Knotted World is a book of layers upon layers. It is near-impossible to put down. n

—Kushalrani Gulab

W

The William Henry Sleeman

of Siddhartha Sarma’s imagi-

nation takes the book to a whole

new level

MUSCULAR INDIAMasculinity, Mobility & the New Middle Classby Michiel BaasCONTEXT`699; 313 pages

THE

CRIMINAL

CODE

The Gangster’s Gita by Agni Sreedhar, a former gang-ster from the Bengaluru underworld, who since his

reformation has gone on to receive many literary awards, does not take the easy route of offering neat redemption or predictable come-uppance. What sets it apart from many such undertakings which aim to provide a glimpse into the criminal underworld is how acces-sible it is. The translator’s note men-tions how the author wished for the book’s English translation to be as simple as the original in Kannada. This is ascribed to Sreedhar’s ap-parent distaste for prolix text and his fascination for concise authors such as Albert Camus.

This fascination does not end at brevity. Much of the book, which is a short but engaging retelling of Sreedhar’s discomfort with the task of taking out a fellow hitman, builds on an existential confusion that was explored similarly by Camus in The Stranger. In that landmark novel, Camus presented Meursault, an un-remorseful protagonist who claims agency on his actions against the absurdity of society which deems him psychopathic for not weeping at his mother’s funeral and subse-quently concludes that he must be

guilty of the murder he is accused of. However, unlike the existential-ism of Camus’ protagonist which is triggered by the slights of fate, Sreedhar’s own existential dilemma stems from being put in a position where he has no choice but to be as cruel as the societal constructs that wronged Meursault.

The minimalism in Sreedhar’s writing is conducive to pondering bigger questions that the author wishes to put forward. Law-abiding citizens are often fascinated by the inner workings of the criminals liv-ing amongst them. Popular culture has always glamorised the gangster lifestyle because it allows the audi-ence to temporarily step into the shoes of characters unlike them and have their flights of violent fancy. They imagine that by understand-ing the criminal thought process, they can perhaps deduce what dif-ferentiates them from the crimi-nals. The Gangster’s Gita, written as it is by a former gangster giving a matter-of-fact account, doesn’t al-low the reader an easy vicarious ride and asks if a life of violence is really all that different from our capital-istic understanding of the modern world where survival is slowly be-coming the only real objective. n

—Abhishek Sikhwal

THE GANGSTER’S GITAby Agni Sreedhar;

translated by Prathibha Nandakumar

EKA `250; 120 pages

Memoir meets fiction in this elegantly understated

underworld novel

In a society

undergoing several

changes, young men

en masse bought into

the idea of a radical

transformation of the

physical self

A CURIOUS BUT GRIPPING NOVEL REVISITS A GRUESOME CHAPTER OF INDIA’S COLONIAL HISTORY

LEISURE

Leisure-Nov9.indd 62-63 10/28/2020 4:41:25 PM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 63

DIGITAL GOALS

When Less is MoreBefore obsessive sports fans were fed this relent-less diet of crowd-free sport, we had to make do, as heroin addicts make do with methadone, with documentaries on streaming sites. Most recently, Amazon Prime’s All or Nothing sports documentary series, which has branched out from its detailed, of-ten fascinating profiles of American football teams to a similarly forensic examination of the New Zea-

land All Blacks, the world’s most dominant team in possibly all sport, and more recently the English Premier League clubs Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur.

The Spurs series has been available for the last month or so, and india today had an exclusive opportunity to speak to Spurs star Lucas Moura who scored a famous hat-trick against Ajax to take Spurs improbably into the 2019 Cham-pions League final where they lost to Liverpool. In a sign of the embarrassment of riches at Spurs, Moura, who has played 35 times for Brazil, is a luxury option off the bench in a team that features Harry Kane, the South Korean superstar Son Heung-Min and now Gareth Bale, a former Spurs star who has returned on loan from Real Madrid where he spent seven incredibly success-ful but also sour and fractious seasons.

In one of those international Zoom conferences that have become de rigueur, Moura found himself faced with journalists from Australia, Ireland, his native Brazil and India. It is the Premier League in microcosm—an English

league full of historic English teams staffed by a dizzying variety of global talent watched by a dizzyingly global audience. And now that there are no fans at the grounds, the armchair fan can feel even more necessary to the sur-

vival of their (arbitrarily) chosen club. Moura’s English is fluent and he

is pleasant company, happy to chat about the initial strangeness and then the

normality of always hav-ing a camera around,

the still stratospheric celebrity of Spurs manager Jose Mourinho, and the challenges of

the new season. Mourinho, the star of

the documentary, com-plains that the Spurs

players are too nice, when they need to be tougher (he actually uses a spectacular obscenity that can’t be printed) on the pitch. Moura laughs as he tells india today that under Mourinho, Spurs are developing what he euphemises as a “strong mentality”.

And in a season that has begun so uncertainly, with champions Liver-pool being trounced 7-2 by Aston Villa (which finished 17th last season, 64 points behind Liverpool), and Man-chester City, having lost to Leicester 5-2, collecting only eight points from the 15 available in its first five games, Spurs are in with as good a chance as any to win the league, becoming Eng-lish champions for only the third time in its otherwise glorious 138-year-old history. n

—Shougat Dasgupta

A DOCUMENTARY SERIES GOES BEHIND THE SCENES OF THE TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR CLUB

DESIGNER MANISH MALHOTRA’S LATEST COLLEC-TION SEES HIM TAKE A BREAK FROM BOLLYWOOD

CLU

B S

TOR

IES All or Nothing: Manchester City

(Amazon Prime)The predecessor to the Spurs documentary, this much-praised series takes its standard deep dive into the fortunes and otherwise of a sports team.

While this series demonstrates a sure grasp of American foot-ball, its English football choices have been less compelling.

o celebrate 15 years of his label, Manish Malhotra decided to create a collection

that deviated from what he is best known for—glamour. “All the sequins and the glitter is in my design DNA, but I wanted to go into a world that I have always been interested in but never had the time to delve into,” says Malhotra. The sartorial ways of the Mughal and Persian dynasties served as inspiration for Malhotra’s collection ‘Ruhaaniyat’, which opened the first digital edition of the Lakme Fashion Week on October 21.

Malhotra began work in 2019, travelling to the Calico museum of Textiles in Ahmedabad and the Mu-seum of Islamic Art in Doha, Qatar, for research, apart from Udaipur, Jaipur and Delhi. The end result is an expansive range which he believes is befitting the current time. “I don’t want to do too much because the world has too much going on right now,” he says. Working with artisans from Uttar Pradesh, Kutch and Punjab, Malhotra was keen to emphasise the fact that “people will come and go but tradition and craftsmanship will remain”.

The designer took additional charge of being a filmmaker, putting together a short to introduce his outfits. “It satisfied the two loves of my life—clothes and films,” says

Malhotra, who is popular for his work in Hindi films—from his debut Rangeela to the more recent Kalank. “I love the drama of fashion shows but film is such a different narrative and I have always wanted to direct.”

The year 2020 also marks three decades in film costume designing for the 53-year-old Malhotra, and he continues to be the collaborator of choice for the younger generation of actresses. Malhotra’s upcoming slate includes Atrangi Re with Sara Ali Khan, a film with Alia Bhatt, and Rohit Shetty’s next, an adaptation of Shakespeare’s Comedy of Errors.

With the film industry gradu-ally reopening, the fashion industry feels the pinch of the pandemic, with the big fat wedding season cut short. Malhotra says that the response in Delhi, where he opened his store in late May, has been far better than in Mumbai and Hyderabad which have seen comparatively slower demand for his bridal wear. “When you do less, you have to do it even better,” he says. “It’s quality over quantity now. Technology and sustainability have to go in tandem.” n

—Suhani Singh

FA S H IO N

T

JOSE

MOURINHO (left),

celebrity manager

of the Tottenham

Hotspur; and LUCAS

MOURA, the team’s

star player

Sunderland ’Til I Die (Netflix)Every week, the English Premier League throws up a manufactured controversy to keep its armchair fan-base piqued. In the process, the big-ger picture is nearly always obscured. Sunderland and its importance in the lives of largely working class fans is that bigger picture. The 14 episodes of this documentary, with its plangent theme song, is a paean to hope and faith when stuck in the mire of failure.

Take Us Home: Leeds United (Amazon Prime)Leeds United, like Sunderland, are a big club that fell on hard times. But after 17

years, Leeds are back in the big time. Already, in the nascent stages of the season, Leeds have graced the Premier League with their hustling, harrying, fast-breaking football. Narrated by Russell Crowe, this documentary is as exhilarating as its theme tune—Leeds band Gang of Four’s Damaged Goods.

LEISURE

Photographs by ALAMY

Leisure-Nov9.indd 64-65 10/28/2020 4:42:30 PM

NOV E M BE R 9, 2020 INDIA TODAY 63

DIGITAL GOALS

When Less is MoreBefore obsessive sports fans were fed this relent-less diet of crowd-free sport, we had to make do, as heroin addicts make do with methadone, with documentaries on streaming sites. Most recently, Amazon Prime’s All or Nothing sports documentary series, which has branched out from its detailed, of-ten fascinating profiles of American football teams to a similarly forensic examination of the New Zea-

land All Blacks, the world’s most dominant team in possibly all sport, and more recently the English Premier League clubs Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur.

The Spurs series has been available for the last month or so, and india today had an exclusive opportunity to speak to Spurs star Lucas Moura who scored a famous hat-trick against Ajax to take Spurs improbably into the 2019 Cham-pions League final where they lost to Liverpool. In a sign of the embarrassment of riches at Spurs, Moura, who has played 35 times for Brazil, is a luxury option off the bench in a team that features Harry Kane, the South Korean superstar Son Heung-Min and now Gareth Bale, a former Spurs star who has returned on loan from Real Madrid where he spent seven incredibly success-ful but also sour and fractious seasons.

In one of those international Zoom conferences that have become de rigueur, Moura found himself faced with journalists from Australia, Ireland, his native Brazil and India. It is the Premier League in microcosm—an English

league full of historic English teams staffed by a dizzying variety of global talent watched by a dizzyingly global audience. And now that there are no fans at the grounds, the armchair fan can feel even more necessary to the sur-

vival of their (arbitrarily) chosen club. Moura’s English is fluent and he

is pleasant company, happy to chat about the initial strangeness and then the

normality of always hav-ing a camera around,

the still stratospheric celebrity of Spurs manager Jose Mourinho, and the challenges of

the new season. Mourinho, the star of

the documentary, com-plains that the Spurs

players are too nice, when they need to be tougher (he actually uses a spectacular obscenity that can’t be printed) on the pitch. Moura laughs as he tells india today that under Mourinho, Spurs are developing what he euphemises as a “strong mentality”.

And in a season that has begun so uncertainly, with champions Liver-pool being trounced 7-2 by Aston Villa (which finished 17th last season, 64 points behind Liverpool), and Man-chester City, having lost to Leicester 5-2, collecting only eight points from the 15 available in its first five games, Spurs are in with as good a chance as any to win the league, becoming Eng-lish champions for only the third time in its otherwise glorious 138-year-old history. n

—Shougat Dasgupta

A DOCUMENTARY SERIES GOES BEHIND THE SCENES OF THE TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR CLUB

DESIGNER MANISH MALHOTRA’S LATEST COLLEC-TION SEES HIM TAKE A BREAK FROM BOLLYWOOD

CLU

B S

TOR

IES All or Nothing: Manchester City

(Amazon Prime)The predecessor to the Spurs documentary, this much-praised series takes its standard deep dive into the fortunes and otherwise of a sports team.

While this series demonstrates a sure grasp of American foot-ball, its English football choices have been less compelling.

o celebrate 15 years of his label, Manish Malhotra decided to create a collection

that deviated from what he is best known for—glamour. “All the sequins and the glitter is in my design DNA, but I wanted to go into a world that I have always been interested in but never had the time to delve into,” says Malhotra. The sartorial ways of the Mughal and Persian dynasties served as inspiration for Malhotra’s collection ‘Ruhaaniyat’, which opened the first digital edition of the Lakme Fashion Week on October 21.

Malhotra began work in 2019, travelling to the Calico museum of Textiles in Ahmedabad and the Mu-seum of Islamic Art in Doha, Qatar, for research, apart from Udaipur, Jaipur and Delhi. The end result is an expansive range which he believes is befitting the current time. “I don’t want to do too much because the world has too much going on right now,” he says. Working with artisans from Uttar Pradesh, Kutch and Punjab, Malhotra was keen to emphasise the fact that “people will come and go but tradition and craftsmanship will remain”.

The designer took additional charge of being a filmmaker, putting together a short to introduce his outfits. “It satisfied the two loves of my life—clothes and films,” says

Malhotra, who is popular for his work in Hindi films—from his debut Rangeela to the more recent Kalank. “I love the drama of fashion shows but film is such a different narrative and I have always wanted to direct.”

The year 2020 also marks three decades in film costume designing for the 53-year-old Malhotra, and he continues to be the collaborator of choice for the younger generation of actresses. Malhotra’s upcoming slate includes Atrangi Re with Sara Ali Khan, a film with Alia Bhatt, and Rohit Shetty’s next, an adaptation of Shakespeare’s Comedy of Errors.

With the film industry gradu-ally reopening, the fashion industry feels the pinch of the pandemic, with the big fat wedding season cut short. Malhotra says that the response in Delhi, where he opened his store in late May, has been far better than in Mumbai and Hyderabad which have seen comparatively slower demand for his bridal wear. “When you do less, you have to do it even better,” he says. “It’s quality over quantity now. Technology and sustainability have to go in tandem.” n

—Suhani Singh

FA S H IO N

T

JOSE

MOURINHO (left),

celebrity manager

of the Tottenham

Hotspur; and LUCAS

MOURA, the team’s

star player

Sunderland ’Til I Die (Netflix)Every week, the English Premier League throws up a manufactured controversy to keep its armchair fan-base piqued. In the process, the big-ger picture is nearly always obscured. Sunderland and its importance in the lives of largely working class fans is that bigger picture. The 14 episodes of this documentary, with its plangent theme song, is a paean to hope and faith when stuck in the mire of failure.

Take Us Home: Leeds United (Amazon Prime)Leeds United, like Sunderland, are a big club that fell on hard times. But after 17

years, Leeds are back in the big time. Already, in the nascent stages of the season, Leeds have graced the Premier League with their hustling, harrying, fast-breaking football. Narrated by Russell Crowe, this documentary is as exhilarating as its theme tune—Leeds band Gang of Four’s Damaged Goods.

LEISURE

Photographs by ALAMY

Leisure-Nov9.indd 64-65 10/28/2020 4:42:30 PM

On Top of Her Game

Q A

Badminton star Manasi Joshi on being an advocate for disability rights, being world

champion and her plans for Paralympics 2021

—with Suhani Singh

Q. How does it feel to have a Barbie modelled after you?It feels great that I am only the second Indian to get a one-of-a-kind honorary Sheroes figurine modelled after me. From the wheatish complexion and the messy pony tail to the prosthetic leg, they have replicated it very well. It’s important for young girls to experience inclusion in their play time in early childhood.

Q. Are you back to training on court?I have a facility near my home in Ahmedabad where I practise with my brother following the social distanc-ing protocols. The training hasn’t yet begun for outsta-tion players in Hyderabad [at the Gopichand Academy]. We also don’t have any tournaments until March. I have picked up running. It helps me in my movement and game.

Q. What are your plans for Paralympics 2021, given your badminton category is not there?I am going to play mixed doubles with Rakesh Pandey from Haryana with whom I won a silver medal at the 2015 World Championships. We want to be a part of it and are working towards qualification. I am just keeping it simple and not put-ting too much pressure.

Volume XLV Number 45; For the week Nov 3-9, 2020, published on every Friday Total number of pages 66 (including cover pages)64

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togr

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G. K

UM

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AN

Cou

rtes

y P

REE

TI R

AI A

ND

BEI

NG

YO

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Q. Since becoming world champion last year, you are seen as a role model for disability rights. What responsibilities does it entail?Whenever I speak now, it’s not only about people who have lost a part of their body, but for the diverse community at large. I want to know everything about them to be able to represent them. I used the lockdown to learn more about disability rights.

ITGDLeisure-Nov9.indd 64 10/29/2020 1:16:40 PM

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