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Ron Prevost U.S. Census Bureau NAWRS 46 th Annual Workshop August 22, 2006. The Medicaid Differential Project and Preliminary Results. Overview. Phase I & II Study Results – Continuation of Dave Baugh’s Presentation Medicaid Study Elements - Phases III & IV - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Ron PrevostU.S. Census Bureau
NAWRS 46th Annual WorkshopAugust 22, 2006
The Medicaid Differential Project andPreliminary Results
2
Overview
• Phase I & II Study Results – Continuation of Dave Baugh’s Presentation
• Medicaid Study Elements - Phases III & IV
• The Census Bureau’s Administrative Records Infrastructure
• New and Emerging Applications of Administrative Records
3
Project Collaborators and Co-Authors
Collaborators:• US Census Bureau Collaborators:
• Sally Obenski• Ron Prevost• Dean Michael Resnick• Marc Roemer
• Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation:• Rob Stewart• George Greenberg• Kate Bloniarz
Coauthors:• Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services
• Dave Baugh• Gary Ciborowski
• State Health Access Data Assistance Center• Kathleen Thiede Call• Gestur Davidson• Lynn Blewett
• Srand Corporation• Jacob Klerman
4
Preliminary explanations we are reporting on today
Universe differences: • Enforce CPS group quarter definitions on MSIS
where we have administrative data address information
• Look for duplicate persons in different states or same state
Measurement error:• Link CPS respondents to MSIS data for CY 2000
to examine survey reports of enrollees• Understand the covariates of misreporting
5
Building a common universe
MSISFrame
CPS Sampling Frame
Group quarters, dead,
not a valid record, in two
states
Not a valid record
In CPS universe and in MSIS universe
6
Preparing MSIS data for comparison and linking to CPS
• Removed MSIS dual eligible cases defined as a “group quarter” by Census
• Ran the 2000 MSIS data through Census Bureau’s Person-ID validation system
• A record is “valid” if in the appropriate format and demographic data is consistent
• Removed duplicate valid records
• Removed those MSIS enrollees not enrolled in “full benefits”
7
Matching the CPS universe
Number of MSIS Medicaid Records in 2000:
44.3 M (total MSIS records)
- 1.5 M (records in more than one state or group quarter)
- 4.0 M (partial Medicaid benefits)
38.8 M (the target Medicaid total)
8
Sample loss in the 2000 MSIS and 2001 CPS linking
MSIS:9% of all MSIS records did not have a valid
record and were not eligible to be linked to the CPS
CPS: 6.1% (respondents’ records not validated)
+ 21.5% (respondents refused to have their ______ data linked)27.6% (total not eligible to be linked to MSIS)
9
The matched CPS-MSIS respondents with reported data only
12,341 CPS person records matched into the MSIS• 1,906 records had imputed or edited CPS data (15.5% of
total).
Focusing on only those with explicitly reported data:60% (responded they had Medicaid)
9% (responded some other type of public coverage but not Medicaid)
17% (responded some type of private coverage, but not Medicaid)
15% (responded they were uninsured)101% (over 100% due to rounding)
10
What factors are associated with measurement accuracy/error?
• Length of time enrolled in Medicaid
• Recency of enrollment in Medicaid
• Poverty status impacts Medicaid reporting but does not impact the percent reporting they are uninsured
• Adults 18-44 are less likely to report Medicaid enrollment
• Adults 18-44 more likely to report being uninsured
• Overall CPS rate of those with Medicaid reporting that they are uninsured is higher than other studies
• Overall CPS rate of those with Medicaid reporting Medicaid is lower than other studies
11
Explanations of the undercount revisited: work remaining to be done
Phase III: Measure Universe Differences:– Use 7 Medicaid state files with name and address
information to understand the impact of MSIS non-validation (one of the states is CA)
– Use enhanced MSIS data to further analyze the CPS sample frame coverage
Phase IV: Assess Measurement Error:– Compare measurement error in the CPS to the
National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) by linking the NHIS to the MSIS
– Compare measurement error in CPS to state survey experiments
12
Continued
Administrative and survey data processing, editing and imputation– Evaluate how well the CPS edits and imputations work at both
the micro level and the overall macro level
– Evaluate additional state-level Medicaid data
Survey sample coverage error and survey nonresponse bias– Link the address data from the 7 states to the Census Bureau’s
Master Address File to determine sample coverage problems
– Assess whether those addresses with a Medicaid enrollee are more likely to not participate in Census Bureau surveys
13
Study Conclusions
We have presented preliminary results that are subject to change after further investigation
At the moment we conclude that survey measurement error is playing the most significant role in producing the undercount– Some Medicaid enrollees answer that they have other
types of coverage and some answer that they are uninsured
The overall goal of the project is to improve the CPS for supporting health policy analysis– Especially refining estimates of the uninsured
14
The Census Bureau’s Mandate for Administrative Records Use
Title 13, Section 6: • Use administrative records information as
extensively as possible in lieu of conducting direct inquires
Census Bureau Strategic Plan:• Reduce reporting burden and minimize cost to
taxpayer by acquiring and developing high-quality data from sources maintained by other government and commercial entities
15
Safeguarding Administrative Records at the Census Bureau
Consistent Application of Policies• To ensure that projects have the appropriate legal
authorization, comply with existing data agreements, and provide adequate controls to protect confidentiality and privacy
Administrative Controls• Numerous levels of approval • Need-to-know access• Removal of identifiable information• Administrative Records Tracking System• Security and confidentiality training
16
Census Bureau Programs that Use Administrative Records
Economic Directorate’s Business Register Intercensal Estimates Master Address File Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics National Longitudinal Mortality Study Current and Periodic Demographic Surveys
17
The Census Bureau’s Administrative
Records Program Evolution
Today
Program begins
mid 1990s
July 1993 1996
AR Research staff created
Survey launched to gather info on potential AR files
Early 1990s
Statistical uses of AR
conference held
July 1993
1999/2000
Projects included AREX 2000 and the
1999 StARS prototype
1999
Centralized program emerges
Data Stewardship
program begins
2001
AR Test for 2000
Census
Race Model Addresses
Quality Concerns
PVS Increases Linking
Capacity
Infrastructure investments
allow new interagency
collaborations
2004
2002 2005
18
The Census Bureau’s Administrative Records Infrastructure
• STARS National Files including:- IRS personal tax returns, salary reports, and information
returns- Medicare & Medicaid- Indian Health Service- HUD files (TRACS, MTCS, PIH, and CHUMS)- Selective Service- Supplemental Security Income- Unemployment Insurance Wage Files (selected states)- MAF – National Change Of Address File
• Social Security Numident File • Creation of the Census Numident file• Look-up file that provides demographic data
19
Current and Emerging Census Bureau Demographic Applications (1)
Tested for assigning missing characteristics to census records
Used to assist coverage improvement operations target areas requiring follow-up
Enhanced the decennial Group Quarters frame with commercial and state address lists
Reducing ACS small area variance with model-assisted estimation based on AR
20
Current and Emerging Census Bureau Demographic Applications (2)
Using integrated data sets to better understand the differences between survey and administrative data Improve survey instrument design, editing, imputation, and
weighting
Provide statistics to improve an agency’s approach to measure program effectiveness
Provide measures to improve agency micro-simulation models
Identify areas for agency-targeted program outreach
21
Current and Emerging Census Bureau Demographic Applications (3)
Reacting to disaster and other near-real time requirements Katrina’s effect on the federal statistical system and our lack
of current response data highlighted need
Acquired the USPS National Change of Address File and FEMA’s emergency management and flood insurance files
Developing next generation StARS – near real-time measurements
22
Conclusions• Integrated data architectures are the future of
American statistics
• As the demand for data increases and budgets decrease data re-use many be the only cost-effective option
• Technical and policy related challenges must be addressed
• This approach will support evidence-based public policy research and decisions.
23
Contact Information
Ronald C. PrevostU.S. Census BureauWashington D.C. 20233-8100
Email: [email protected]: (301) 763-2264Cell: (202) 641-2246