The Market in Review

Paul Siluch Lisa Hill Peter Mazzoni and Sharon Mitchell Financial Advisors

Raymond James Ltd ndash Victoria BC

November 8th 2019

This weekrsquos articles and insights

1 The Rule of Three 2 Ned Davis Research ndash The Long View 3 The Medium View 4 The Near-Term View 5 Key Tax Dates for 2019 6 The Best Months to Buy Stuff

ldquoWhatever you do always give 100 Unless you are donating bloodrdquo

Your Index Report

Current

Last

Week Year-to-Date

Dow Jones Ind Avg 27675 + 232 + 1864

SampP 500 3085 + 157 + 2307 (+1880 in $CDN)

TSX 16806 + 196 + 1734

The Rule of Three

Three is a very special number for the human race We find it in Buddhism Islam and certainly in Christianity (the Holy Trinity the Three Wise Men for example) It appears in fairy tales (The Three Bears) drama (beginning middle end) great speeches (persuade assure and rule) and even hockey (three periods) It is very common in humour as well Most jokes start with a character or a situation which forms the basis for a pattern The second part repeats something about the character or situation giving us the expectation of the pattern continuing Our brains crave repetition and we are engaged in this pattern happening again The punch line surprises us by what happens next When it is not what we expected we get a comic twist And hopefully a laugh ldquoWhen my father dies hersquoll see the light make his way toward it and then flip it off to save electricityrdquo

mdashHarland Williams A statistics student who hadnrsquot studied takes a truefalse final exam He decides to flip a coin for the answers At the end of the two hours everyone else has left and the professor walks up and interrupts the student who is still flipping his coin ldquoIf you are just flipping a coin for your answer what is taking you so longrdquo he demands The student replies ldquoShhh Irsquom checking my answersrdquo Similar patterns exist in the stock market and investing Industries mature until three major players end up controlling 90 of the market Think of Canadarsquos three big phone companies and how hard it has been for new players to break in Stocks (and interest rates and economies) go up sideways and down Thatrsquos all they can do when you simplify everything ndash make money break even or lose The rule of three once again

In its simplest form the stock market looks roughly like this over periods of years

Not everything happens in threes Economic cycles for example used to last about 5 years on average This meant we faced a recession or slowdown roughly twice in a decade It is a pattern we became used to And planned for The period since 2008-9 has been frustrating in this regard Since 2009 we should have seen a recession or bear market by now And yet we havenrsquot Wersquove had a 10-year bull market thanks to the fuel of aggressively low interest rates There have been two cooling phases in 2011 and 2015-16 but no recessions Valuations of stocks have moved above historic limits even as interest rates have gone lower than anyone ever expected Global central banks have flooded the world with cheap money in the last ten years an act which has distorted cycles and frustrated old-time investors Many value investors have been sitting in cash on the sidelines for years waiting for a decline to get invested It worked for decadeshellipuntil this last one We subscribe to the Ned Davis Research service which is a firm that devotes all its energy to deciphering economic and market cycles around the world We had a private call with them this week and we summarize their conclusions below They try to follow the data without prejudice and opinion but they are also confused at times

Ned Davis Research ndash The Long View Much as wersquod like this pattern to be in three parts to go with the theme above Ned Davis breaks economic cycles into four as shown below The shortest period is the Deflation cycle when money gets tight and business contracts This last about a decade and the last one before 2000-2010 was the 1929-1939 period Note ndash this is the period when the worst market crashes occur (1929 and 2009) Reflation follows when interest rates are forced so low that borrowing can occur again Deposits are built up and money begins to flow The last Reflation cycle lasted about 20 years from 1945-1965 which suggests we are about halfway through this one The Inflation cycle follows next and many of you will remember when gold oil minerals and real estate boomed in the 1970s This is when all that money starts to move and ldquotoo much money starts chasing too few goodsrdquo Stocks can do okay here but bonds suffer badly as interest rates rise Commodities have been in a bear market since 2011 which tells us the Inflation cycle is still a few years away Disinflation is the final cycle when inflation moderates It is the ldquonot too hot and not too coldrdquo Goldilocks period and is often the best for stocks

The above chart suggests that interest rates should remain benign for some time to come In other words donrsquot hold your breath waiting to get 5 on term deposits and bonds

The Medium View The US Presidential Cycle has been studied closely for many years and the chart below is updated to show where we are now The pre-election year has been good for stocks since the year 1900 and 2019 has followed the same pattern We are entering a choppy period however when the mudslinging starts between the parties and uncertainty reigns Next year promises plenty of mudslinging if what we are seeing now is any guide The general pattern is that 2020 should be a positive year A Presidential impeachment could certainly change everything

The Near-Term View Global economies used to be driven by manufacturing Cars ships factories ndash big heavy stuff Services such as shopping websites and tax preparation now dominate but manufacturing is still the tail that wags the global dog And since early 2018 it has been in decline everywhere but the US Blame rising interest rates in 2018 The threat last year was four interest rate hikes in 2019 ndash we got three cuts instead Or blame the US-China trade spat Manufacturing in Asia and Europe ground to a halt with the US starting its decline one year later

We said above there were two cooling phases in 2011 and 2015 Add a third in 2018-9 It isnrsquot a recession but it came close The first rays of light have begun to appear There is now the possibility of a US-China trade deal by year-end and global manufacturing as shown in the charts below has begun to inflect higher for the first time since 2017

IE250B Copyright 2019 Ned Davis Research Inc Further distribution prohibited without prior permission All Rights Reserved See NDR Disclaimer at wwwndrcomcopyrighthtml For data vendor disclaimers refer to wwwndrcomvendorinfo

So where are we now In absolute terms stocks remain expensive By some measures stocks are in the top 90 of valuations seen in history But compared to what When measured against bonds yielding just 1 (or negative rates as we see in Japan and Europe) stocks are actually quite cheap Central banks are still easing and money is plentiful for those willing (and able) to borrow Dont fight the Fed in other words US stocks have had a marvelous run these last ten years Much better than Canadian or global stocks As a result they are priced at higher valuations than those of any other country However the positive changes we see in manufacturing are happening outside of North America In point form here is the Ned Davis view for the period ahead

US stock valuations are high Deservedly so as they were the market leaders

Three is a very special number for the human race We find it in Buddhism Islam and certainly in Christianity (the Holy Trinity the Three Wise Men for example) It appears in fairy tales (The Three Bears) drama (beginning middle end) great speeches (persuade assure and rule) and even hockey (three periods) It is very common in humour as well Most jokes start with a character or a situation which forms the basis for a pattern The second part repeats something about the character or situation giving us the expectation of the pattern continuing Our brains crave repetition and we are engaged in this pattern happening again The punch line surprises us by what happens next When it is not what we expected we get a comic twist And hopefully a laugh ldquoWhen my father dies hersquoll see the light make his way toward it and then flip it off to save electricityrdquo

mdashHarland Williams A statistics student who hadnrsquot studied takes a truefalse final exam He decides to flip a coin for the answers At the end of the two hours everyone else has left and the professor walks up and interrupts the student who is still flipping his coin ldquoIf you are just flipping a coin for your answer what is taking you so longrdquo he demands The student replies ldquoShhh Irsquom checking my answersrdquo Similar patterns exist in the stock market and investing Industries mature until three major players end up controlling 90 of the market Think of Canadarsquos three big phone companies and how hard it has been for new players to break in Stocks (and interest rates and economies) go up sideways and down Thatrsquos all they can do when you simplify everything ndash make money break even or lose The rule of three once again

In its simplest form the stock market looks roughly like this over periods of years

Not everything happens in threes Economic cycles for example used to last about 5 years on average This meant we faced a recession or slowdown roughly twice in a decade It is a pattern we became used to And planned for The period since 2008-9 has been frustrating in this regard Since 2009 we should have seen a recession or bear market by now And yet we havenrsquot Wersquove had a 10-year bull market thanks to the fuel of aggressively low interest rates There have been two cooling phases in 2011 and 2015-16 but no recessions Valuations of stocks have moved above historic limits even as interest rates have gone lower than anyone ever expected Global central banks have flooded the world with cheap money in the last ten years an act which has distorted cycles and frustrated old-time investors Many value investors have been sitting in cash on the sidelines for years waiting for a decline to get invested It worked for decadeshellipuntil this last one We subscribe to the Ned Davis Research service which is a firm that devotes all its energy to deciphering economic and market cycles around the world We had a private call with them this week and we summarize their conclusions below They try to follow the data without prejudice and opinion but they are also confused at times

Ned Davis Research ndash The Long View Much as wersquod like this pattern to be in three parts to go with the theme above Ned Davis breaks economic cycles into four as shown below The shortest period is the Deflation cycle when money gets tight and business contracts This last about a decade and the last one before 2000-2010 was the 1929-1939 period Note ndash this is the period when the worst market crashes occur (1929 and 2009) Reflation follows when interest rates are forced so low that borrowing can occur again Deposits are built up and money begins to flow The last Reflation cycle lasted about 20 years from 1945-1965 which suggests we are about halfway through this one The Inflation cycle follows next and many of you will remember when gold oil minerals and real estate boomed in the 1970s This is when all that money starts to move and ldquotoo much money starts chasing too few goodsrdquo Stocks can do okay here but bonds suffer badly as interest rates rise Commodities have been in a bear market since 2011 which tells us the Inflation cycle is still a few years away Disinflation is the final cycle when inflation moderates It is the ldquonot too hot and not too coldrdquo Goldilocks period and is often the best for stocks

The above chart suggests that interest rates should remain benign for some time to come In other words donrsquot hold your breath waiting to get 5 on term deposits and bonds

The Medium View The US Presidential Cycle has been studied closely for many years and the chart below is updated to show where we are now The pre-election year has been good for stocks since the year 1900 and 2019 has followed the same pattern We are entering a choppy period however when the mudslinging starts between the parties and uncertainty reigns Next year promises plenty of mudslinging if what we are seeing now is any guide The general pattern is that 2020 should be a positive year A Presidential impeachment could certainly change everything

The Near-Term View Global economies used to be driven by manufacturing Cars ships factories ndash big heavy stuff Services such as shopping websites and tax preparation now dominate but manufacturing is still the tail that wags the global dog And since early 2018 it has been in decline everywhere but the US Blame rising interest rates in 2018 The threat last year was four interest rate hikes in 2019 ndash we got three cuts instead Or blame the US-China trade spat Manufacturing in Asia and Europe ground to a halt with the US starting its decline one year later

We said above there were two cooling phases in 2011 and 2015 Add a third in 2018-9 It isnrsquot a recession but it came close The first rays of light have begun to appear There is now the possibility of a US-China trade deal by year-end and global manufacturing as shown in the charts below has begun to inflect higher for the first time since 2017

IE250B Copyright 2019 Ned Davis Research Inc Further distribution prohibited without prior permission All Rights Reserved See NDR Disclaimer at wwwndrcomcopyrighthtml For data vendor disclaimers refer to wwwndrcomvendorinfo

So where are we now In absolute terms stocks remain expensive By some measures stocks are in the top 90 of valuations seen in history But compared to what When measured against bonds yielding just 1 (or negative rates as we see in Japan and Europe) stocks are actually quite cheap Central banks are still easing and money is plentiful for those willing (and able) to borrow Dont fight the Fed in other words US stocks have had a marvelous run these last ten years Much better than Canadian or global stocks As a result they are priced at higher valuations than those of any other country However the positive changes we see in manufacturing are happening outside of North America In point form here is the Ned Davis view for the period ahead

US stock valuations are high Deservedly so as they were the market leaders

In its simplest form the stock market looks roughly like this over periods of years

Not everything happens in threes Economic cycles for example used to last about 5 years on average This meant we faced a recession or slowdown roughly twice in a decade It is a pattern we became used to And planned for The period since 2008-9 has been frustrating in this regard Since 2009 we should have seen a recession or bear market by now And yet we havenrsquot Wersquove had a 10-year bull market thanks to the fuel of aggressively low interest rates There have been two cooling phases in 2011 and 2015-16 but no recessions Valuations of stocks have moved above historic limits even as interest rates have gone lower than anyone ever expected Global central banks have flooded the world with cheap money in the last ten years an act which has distorted cycles and frustrated old-time investors Many value investors have been sitting in cash on the sidelines for years waiting for a decline to get invested It worked for decadeshellipuntil this last one We subscribe to the Ned Davis Research service which is a firm that devotes all its energy to deciphering economic and market cycles around the world We had a private call with them this week and we summarize their conclusions below They try to follow the data without prejudice and opinion but they are also confused at times

Ned Davis Research ndash The Long View Much as wersquod like this pattern to be in three parts to go with the theme above Ned Davis breaks economic cycles into four as shown below The shortest period is the Deflation cycle when money gets tight and business contracts This last about a decade and the last one before 2000-2010 was the 1929-1939 period Note ndash this is the period when the worst market crashes occur (1929 and 2009) Reflation follows when interest rates are forced so low that borrowing can occur again Deposits are built up and money begins to flow The last Reflation cycle lasted about 20 years from 1945-1965 which suggests we are about halfway through this one The Inflation cycle follows next and many of you will remember when gold oil minerals and real estate boomed in the 1970s This is when all that money starts to move and ldquotoo much money starts chasing too few goodsrdquo Stocks can do okay here but bonds suffer badly as interest rates rise Commodities have been in a bear market since 2011 which tells us the Inflation cycle is still a few years away Disinflation is the final cycle when inflation moderates It is the ldquonot too hot and not too coldrdquo Goldilocks period and is often the best for stocks

The above chart suggests that interest rates should remain benign for some time to come In other words donrsquot hold your breath waiting to get 5 on term deposits and bonds

The Medium View The US Presidential Cycle has been studied closely for many years and the chart below is updated to show where we are now The pre-election year has been good for stocks since the year 1900 and 2019 has followed the same pattern We are entering a choppy period however when the mudslinging starts between the parties and uncertainty reigns Next year promises plenty of mudslinging if what we are seeing now is any guide The general pattern is that 2020 should be a positive year A Presidential impeachment could certainly change everything

The Near-Term View Global economies used to be driven by manufacturing Cars ships factories ndash big heavy stuff Services such as shopping websites and tax preparation now dominate but manufacturing is still the tail that wags the global dog And since early 2018 it has been in decline everywhere but the US Blame rising interest rates in 2018 The threat last year was four interest rate hikes in 2019 ndash we got three cuts instead Or blame the US-China trade spat Manufacturing in Asia and Europe ground to a halt with the US starting its decline one year later

We said above there were two cooling phases in 2011 and 2015 Add a third in 2018-9 It isnrsquot a recession but it came close The first rays of light have begun to appear There is now the possibility of a US-China trade deal by year-end and global manufacturing as shown in the charts below has begun to inflect higher for the first time since 2017

IE250B Copyright 2019 Ned Davis Research Inc Further distribution prohibited without prior permission All Rights Reserved See NDR Disclaimer at wwwndrcomcopyrighthtml For data vendor disclaimers refer to wwwndrcomvendorinfo

So where are we now In absolute terms stocks remain expensive By some measures stocks are in the top 90 of valuations seen in history But compared to what When measured against bonds yielding just 1 (or negative rates as we see in Japan and Europe) stocks are actually quite cheap Central banks are still easing and money is plentiful for those willing (and able) to borrow Dont fight the Fed in other words US stocks have had a marvelous run these last ten years Much better than Canadian or global stocks As a result they are priced at higher valuations than those of any other country However the positive changes we see in manufacturing are happening outside of North America In point form here is the Ned Davis view for the period ahead

US stock valuations are high Deservedly so as they were the market leaders

Ned Davis Research ndash The Long View Much as wersquod like this pattern to be in three parts to go with the theme above Ned Davis breaks economic cycles into four as shown below The shortest period is the Deflation cycle when money gets tight and business contracts This last about a decade and the last one before 2000-2010 was the 1929-1939 period Note ndash this is the period when the worst market crashes occur (1929 and 2009) Reflation follows when interest rates are forced so low that borrowing can occur again Deposits are built up and money begins to flow The last Reflation cycle lasted about 20 years from 1945-1965 which suggests we are about halfway through this one The Inflation cycle follows next and many of you will remember when gold oil minerals and real estate boomed in the 1970s This is when all that money starts to move and ldquotoo much money starts chasing too few goodsrdquo Stocks can do okay here but bonds suffer badly as interest rates rise Commodities have been in a bear market since 2011 which tells us the Inflation cycle is still a few years away Disinflation is the final cycle when inflation moderates It is the ldquonot too hot and not too coldrdquo Goldilocks period and is often the best for stocks

The above chart suggests that interest rates should remain benign for some time to come In other words donrsquot hold your breath waiting to get 5 on term deposits and bonds

The Medium View The US Presidential Cycle has been studied closely for many years and the chart below is updated to show where we are now The pre-election year has been good for stocks since the year 1900 and 2019 has followed the same pattern We are entering a choppy period however when the mudslinging starts between the parties and uncertainty reigns Next year promises plenty of mudslinging if what we are seeing now is any guide The general pattern is that 2020 should be a positive year A Presidential impeachment could certainly change everything

The Near-Term View Global economies used to be driven by manufacturing Cars ships factories ndash big heavy stuff Services such as shopping websites and tax preparation now dominate but manufacturing is still the tail that wags the global dog And since early 2018 it has been in decline everywhere but the US Blame rising interest rates in 2018 The threat last year was four interest rate hikes in 2019 ndash we got three cuts instead Or blame the US-China trade spat Manufacturing in Asia and Europe ground to a halt with the US starting its decline one year later

We said above there were two cooling phases in 2011 and 2015 Add a third in 2018-9 It isnrsquot a recession but it came close The first rays of light have begun to appear There is now the possibility of a US-China trade deal by year-end and global manufacturing as shown in the charts below has begun to inflect higher for the first time since 2017

IE250B Copyright 2019 Ned Davis Research Inc Further distribution prohibited without prior permission All Rights Reserved See NDR Disclaimer at wwwndrcomcopyrighthtml For data vendor disclaimers refer to wwwndrcomvendorinfo

So where are we now In absolute terms stocks remain expensive By some measures stocks are in the top 90 of valuations seen in history But compared to what When measured against bonds yielding just 1 (or negative rates as we see in Japan and Europe) stocks are actually quite cheap Central banks are still easing and money is plentiful for those willing (and able) to borrow Dont fight the Fed in other words US stocks have had a marvelous run these last ten years Much better than Canadian or global stocks As a result they are priced at higher valuations than those of any other country However the positive changes we see in manufacturing are happening outside of North America In point form here is the Ned Davis view for the period ahead

US stock valuations are high Deservedly so as they were the market leaders

The above chart suggests that interest rates should remain benign for some time to come In other words donrsquot hold your breath waiting to get 5 on term deposits and bonds

The Medium View The US Presidential Cycle has been studied closely for many years and the chart below is updated to show where we are now The pre-election year has been good for stocks since the year 1900 and 2019 has followed the same pattern We are entering a choppy period however when the mudslinging starts between the parties and uncertainty reigns Next year promises plenty of mudslinging if what we are seeing now is any guide The general pattern is that 2020 should be a positive year A Presidential impeachment could certainly change everything

The Near-Term View Global economies used to be driven by manufacturing Cars ships factories ndash big heavy stuff Services such as shopping websites and tax preparation now dominate but manufacturing is still the tail that wags the global dog And since early 2018 it has been in decline everywhere but the US Blame rising interest rates in 2018 The threat last year was four interest rate hikes in 2019 ndash we got three cuts instead Or blame the US-China trade spat Manufacturing in Asia and Europe ground to a halt with the US starting its decline one year later

We said above there were two cooling phases in 2011 and 2015 Add a third in 2018-9 It isnrsquot a recession but it came close The first rays of light have begun to appear There is now the possibility of a US-China trade deal by year-end and global manufacturing as shown in the charts below has begun to inflect higher for the first time since 2017

IE250B Copyright 2019 Ned Davis Research Inc Further distribution prohibited without prior permission All Rights Reserved See NDR Disclaimer at wwwndrcomcopyrighthtml For data vendor disclaimers refer to wwwndrcomvendorinfo

So where are we now In absolute terms stocks remain expensive By some measures stocks are in the top 90 of valuations seen in history But compared to what When measured against bonds yielding just 1 (or negative rates as we see in Japan and Europe) stocks are actually quite cheap Central banks are still easing and money is plentiful for those willing (and able) to borrow Dont fight the Fed in other words US stocks have had a marvelous run these last ten years Much better than Canadian or global stocks As a result they are priced at higher valuations than those of any other country However the positive changes we see in manufacturing are happening outside of North America In point form here is the Ned Davis view for the period ahead

US stock valuations are high Deservedly so as they were the market leaders

The Near-Term View Global economies used to be driven by manufacturing Cars ships factories ndash big heavy stuff Services such as shopping websites and tax preparation now dominate but manufacturing is still the tail that wags the global dog And since early 2018 it has been in decline everywhere but the US Blame rising interest rates in 2018 The threat last year was four interest rate hikes in 2019 ndash we got three cuts instead Or blame the US-China trade spat Manufacturing in Asia and Europe ground to a halt with the US starting its decline one year later

We said above there were two cooling phases in 2011 and 2015 Add a third in 2018-9 It isnrsquot a recession but it came close The first rays of light have begun to appear There is now the possibility of a US-China trade deal by year-end and global manufacturing as shown in the charts below has begun to inflect higher for the first time since 2017

IE250B Copyright 2019 Ned Davis Research Inc Further distribution prohibited without prior permission All Rights Reserved See NDR Disclaimer at wwwndrcomcopyrighthtml For data vendor disclaimers refer to wwwndrcomvendorinfo

So where are we now In absolute terms stocks remain expensive By some measures stocks are in the top 90 of valuations seen in history But compared to what When measured against bonds yielding just 1 (or negative rates as we see in Japan and Europe) stocks are actually quite cheap Central banks are still easing and money is plentiful for those willing (and able) to borrow Dont fight the Fed in other words US stocks have had a marvelous run these last ten years Much better than Canadian or global stocks As a result they are priced at higher valuations than those of any other country However the positive changes we see in manufacturing are happening outside of North America In point form here is the Ned Davis view for the period ahead

US stock valuations are high Deservedly so as they were the market leaders

We said above there were two cooling phases in 2011 and 2015 Add a third in 2018-9 It isnrsquot a recession but it came close The first rays of light have begun to appear There is now the possibility of a US-China trade deal by year-end and global manufacturing as shown in the charts below has begun to inflect higher for the first time since 2017

IE250B Copyright 2019 Ned Davis Research Inc Further distribution prohibited without prior permission All Rights Reserved See NDR Disclaimer at wwwndrcomcopyrighthtml For data vendor disclaimers refer to wwwndrcomvendorinfo

So where are we now In absolute terms stocks remain expensive By some measures stocks are in the top 90 of valuations seen in history But compared to what When measured against bonds yielding just 1 (or negative rates as we see in Japan and Europe) stocks are actually quite cheap Central banks are still easing and money is plentiful for those willing (and able) to borrow Dont fight the Fed in other words US stocks have had a marvelous run these last ten years Much better than Canadian or global stocks As a result they are priced at higher valuations than those of any other country However the positive changes we see in manufacturing are happening outside of North America In point form here is the Ned Davis view for the period ahead

US stock valuations are high Deservedly so as they were the market leaders

Recession risk is low Jobs are still plentiful although the average worker doesnrsquot have much left over for additional spending

The paradox has been how nervous investors are about the markets even as they continue to climb This year alone $216 billion has been pulled out of US stocks and mutual funds and $262 billion poured into bonds yielding very little

As conditions globally deteriorated in 2018 the Ned Davis team cut global stocks from 65 to just 40 and moved that money into bonds This was a good call - global stocks underperformed global bonds With manufacturing stabilizing and valuations better outside the US than inside it they just shifted 10 back into global stocks While the US market is at all-time highs only 20 of global markets are even close Europe and Asia are showing signs that their decline is flattening (the prelude to a turn higher) suggesting it could be global stocks that lead the next leg higher The Emerging Markets are where the global decline hit hardest and where it started Countries such as South Korea Taiwan and Brazil were flattened by the trade wars This region may be where the decline ends first as a result Asia is the cheapest region in the world and a lower US dollar helps emerging markets most Current conditions suggest choppy times for the next few months however Investors have turned very bullish in the last month We should also mention that Ned Davis is bullish on gold Ultra-low interest rates and rampant money printing devalue paper currencies and they are seeing money flow into gold month after month

Key Tax Dates for 2019 Dec-13-2019 - Charitable DonationGifts of Equity and Mutual Fund securities In-Kind Dec-16-2019 - Fourth quarter tax installment payment for 2019 due Dec-27-2019 - Last day to sell securities on Canadian markets to realize a gain or loss Dec-27-2019 - Last day to sell securities on US markets to realize a gain or loss Dec-31-2019 - Last day to pay prescribed rate loan interest to deduct in 2019

Dec-31-2019 - Last day to complete cash charitable contributions for 2019 be sure you allow enough time to complete donations that may require additional lead time Dec-31-2019 - Annual tax installment payment for 2019 due for farming and fishing income

The Best Months to Buy Stuff As we approach the end of the year ndash the most expensive time of the year ndash many people start sweating about their budgets We came across an article in USA News and World Report that breaks down the best time of year to buy certain items

The Best time to Buy a Home

August and December offer the best bargains If you want the largest number of choices the best month is March when inventory appears for the spring sales The best month to sell a home is April

The Best Time to Buy a Car

December Sales deadlines come in December and data shows this is when the highest discounts from list price appear

The Best Time to Buy Clothing

End of season August and September for swimsuits shorts and summer clothing Conversely spring is the best time to buy winter clothes

The Best Time to Buy Appliances

September through October New models come out in November forcing retailers to clear older models out in the fall months

The Best Time to Buy Furniture

February and August New furniture is similar to clothing with new lines arriving in the spring and fall Just before these new seasons is when old inventory gets cleared out

The Best Time to Buy an Engagement Ring

August Spring and summer are the traditional wedding seasons which means romance is at a lull at the end of August

As with investing timing is everything when shopping Especially for seasonal items Therersquos a saying in the farm country around us about the importance of timing

The only thing worth less than a green pumpkin on October 31st is an orange pumpkin on November 1st The best times to buy mattresses and TVs are also mentioned in the article below httpsmoneyusnewscommoneypersonal-financesaving-and-budgetingarticlesthe-best-time-of-year-to-buy-everything

Thank you for your referrals this month They are always handled with great care and discretion

httpwwwdividendvaluepartnerscom

We thank you for your business and your referrals and we hope you find our site

user friendly and informative We welcome your comments How to contact us

paulsiluchraymondjamesca lisahillraymondjamesca petermazzoniraymondjamesca

(250) 405-2417

Disclaimers The information contained in this newsletter was obtained from sources believed to be reliable however we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete It is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell securities The views expressed are those of the authors Paul Siluch and Lisa Hill and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd Commissions trailing commissions management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual funds Please read the prospectus before investing The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales redemption distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns Mutual funds are not guaranteed their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated This newsletter is intended for distribution only in those jurisdictions where Raymond James Ltd is registered as a dealer in securities Any distribution or dissemination of this newsletter in any other jurisdiction is strictly prohibited This newsletter is not intended for nor should it be distributed to any person in the USA Raymond James Ltd is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund

Dec-31-2019 - Last day to complete cash charitable contributions for 2019 be sure you allow enough time to complete donations that may require additional lead time Dec-31-2019 - Annual tax installment payment for 2019 due for farming and fishing income

The Best Months to Buy Stuff As we approach the end of the year ndash the most expensive time of the year ndash many people start sweating about their budgets We came across an article in USA News and World Report that breaks down the best time of year to buy certain items

The Best time to Buy a Home

August and December offer the best bargains If you want the largest number of choices the best month is March when inventory appears for the spring sales The best month to sell a home is April

The Best Time to Buy a Car

December Sales deadlines come in December and data shows this is when the highest discounts from list price appear

The Best Time to Buy Clothing

End of season August and September for swimsuits shorts and summer clothing Conversely spring is the best time to buy winter clothes

The Best Time to Buy Appliances

September through October New models come out in November forcing retailers to clear older models out in the fall months

The Best Time to Buy Furniture

February and August New furniture is similar to clothing with new lines arriving in the spring and fall Just before these new seasons is when old inventory gets cleared out

The Best Time to Buy an Engagement Ring

August Spring and summer are the traditional wedding seasons which means romance is at a lull at the end of August

As with investing timing is everything when shopping Especially for seasonal items Therersquos a saying in the farm country around us about the importance of timing

The only thing worth less than a green pumpkin on October 31st is an orange pumpkin on November 1st The best times to buy mattresses and TVs are also mentioned in the article below httpsmoneyusnewscommoneypersonal-financesaving-and-budgetingarticlesthe-best-time-of-year-to-buy-everything

Thank you for your referrals this month They are always handled with great care and discretion

httpwwwdividendvaluepartnerscom

We thank you for your business and your referrals and we hope you find our site

user friendly and informative We welcome your comments How to contact us

paulsiluchraymondjamesca lisahillraymondjamesca petermazzoniraymondjamesca

(250) 405-2417

Disclaimers The information contained in this newsletter was obtained from sources believed to be reliable however we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete It is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell securities The views expressed are those of the authors Paul Siluch and Lisa Hill and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd Commissions trailing commissions management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual funds Please read the prospectus before investing The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales redemption distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns Mutual funds are not guaranteed their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated This newsletter is intended for distribution only in those jurisdictions where Raymond James Ltd is registered as a dealer in securities Any distribution or dissemination of this newsletter in any other jurisdiction is strictly prohibited This newsletter is not intended for nor should it be distributed to any person in the USA Raymond James Ltd is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund

The Best Time to Buy a Car

December Sales deadlines come in December and data shows this is when the highest discounts from list price appear

The Best Time to Buy Clothing

End of season August and September for swimsuits shorts and summer clothing Conversely spring is the best time to buy winter clothes

The Best Time to Buy Appliances

September through October New models come out in November forcing retailers to clear older models out in the fall months

The Best Time to Buy Furniture

February and August New furniture is similar to clothing with new lines arriving in the spring and fall Just before these new seasons is when old inventory gets cleared out

The Best Time to Buy an Engagement Ring

August Spring and summer are the traditional wedding seasons which means romance is at a lull at the end of August

As with investing timing is everything when shopping Especially for seasonal items Therersquos a saying in the farm country around us about the importance of timing

The only thing worth less than a green pumpkin on October 31st is an orange pumpkin on November 1st The best times to buy mattresses and TVs are also mentioned in the article below httpsmoneyusnewscommoneypersonal-financesaving-and-budgetingarticlesthe-best-time-of-year-to-buy-everything

Thank you for your referrals this month They are always handled with great care and discretion

httpwwwdividendvaluepartnerscom

We thank you for your business and your referrals and we hope you find our site

user friendly and informative We welcome your comments How to contact us

paulsiluchraymondjamesca lisahillraymondjamesca petermazzoniraymondjamesca

(250) 405-2417

Disclaimers The information contained in this newsletter was obtained from sources believed to be reliable however we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete It is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell securities The views expressed are those of the authors Paul Siluch and Lisa Hill and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd Commissions trailing commissions management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual funds Please read the prospectus before investing The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales redemption distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns Mutual funds are not guaranteed their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated This newsletter is intended for distribution only in those jurisdictions where Raymond James Ltd is registered as a dealer in securities Any distribution or dissemination of this newsletter in any other jurisdiction is strictly prohibited This newsletter is not intended for nor should it be distributed to any person in the USA Raymond James Ltd is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund

The Best Time to Buy Furniture

February and August New furniture is similar to clothing with new lines arriving in the spring and fall Just before these new seasons is when old inventory gets cleared out

The Best Time to Buy an Engagement Ring

August Spring and summer are the traditional wedding seasons which means romance is at a lull at the end of August

As with investing timing is everything when shopping Especially for seasonal items Therersquos a saying in the farm country around us about the importance of timing

The only thing worth less than a green pumpkin on October 31st is an orange pumpkin on November 1st The best times to buy mattresses and TVs are also mentioned in the article below httpsmoneyusnewscommoneypersonal-financesaving-and-budgetingarticlesthe-best-time-of-year-to-buy-everything

Thank you for your referrals this month They are always handled with great care and discretion

httpwwwdividendvaluepartnerscom

We thank you for your business and your referrals and we hope you find our site

user friendly and informative We welcome your comments How to contact us

paulsiluchraymondjamesca lisahillraymondjamesca petermazzoniraymondjamesca

(250) 405-2417

Disclaimers The information contained in this newsletter was obtained from sources believed to be reliable however we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete It is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell securities The views expressed are those of the authors Paul Siluch and Lisa Hill and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd Commissions trailing commissions management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual funds Please read the prospectus before investing The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales redemption distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns Mutual funds are not guaranteed their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated This newsletter is intended for distribution only in those jurisdictions where Raymond James Ltd is registered as a dealer in securities Any distribution or dissemination of this newsletter in any other jurisdiction is strictly prohibited This newsletter is not intended for nor should it be distributed to any person in the USA Raymond James Ltd is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund

The only thing worth less than a green pumpkin on October 31st is an orange pumpkin on November 1st The best times to buy mattresses and TVs are also mentioned in the article below httpsmoneyusnewscommoneypersonal-financesaving-and-budgetingarticlesthe-best-time-of-year-to-buy-everything

Thank you for your referrals this month They are always handled with great care and discretion

httpwwwdividendvaluepartnerscom

We thank you for your business and your referrals and we hope you find our site

user friendly and informative We welcome your comments How to contact us

paulsiluchraymondjamesca lisahillraymondjamesca petermazzoniraymondjamesca

(250) 405-2417

Disclaimers The information contained in this newsletter was obtained from sources believed to be reliable however we cannot represent that it is accurate or complete It is provided as a general source of information and should not be considered personal investment advice or solicitation to buy or sell securities The views expressed are those of the authors Paul Siluch and Lisa Hill and not necessarily those of Raymond James Ltd Commissions trailing commissions management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual funds Please read the prospectus before investing The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales redemption distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any security holder that would have reduced returns Mutual funds are not guaranteed their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated This newsletter is intended for distribution only in those jurisdictions where Raymond James Ltd is registered as a dealer in securities Any distribution or dissemination of this newsletter in any other jurisdiction is strictly prohibited This newsletter is not intended for nor should it be distributed to any person in the USA Raymond James Ltd is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund

Raymond James does not accept orders andor instructions regarding your account by e-mail voice mail fax or any alternate method Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements E-mail sent through the Internet is not secure or confidential We reserve the right to monitor all e-mail Any information provided in this e-mail has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed by Raymond James and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation Raymond James and its employees may own options rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in e-mail This e-mail is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential andor privileged material Any review retransmission dissemination or other use of or taking of any action in reliance upon this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited This email newsletter may provide links to other Internet sites for the convenience of users Raymond James Ltd is not responsible for the availability or content of these external sites nor does Raymond James Ltd endorse warrant or guarantee the products services or information described or offered at these other Internet sites Users cannot assume that the external sites will abide by the same Privacy Policy which Raymond James Ltd adheres to Commissions trailing commissions management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments Please read the prospectus before investing There can be no assurances that the fund will be able to maintain its net asset value per security at a constant amount or that the full amount of your investment in the fund will be returned to you Mutual funds and other securities are not insured nor guaranteed their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated Prices shown as of November 7th 2019 You are receiving this message because our records indicate that you have requested this information If you no longer wish to receive research from Raymond James please reply to this message with unsubscribe in the subject line and include your name andor company name in the message Additional Risk and Disclosure information as well as more information on the Raymond James rating system and suitability categories is available at wwwrjcapitalmarketscomDisclosuresIndex ____________________________________________________________________________________

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Raymond James accepts no liability for any errors omissions loss or damage arising from the content transmission

or receipt of this email Raymond James Ltd is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund

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