The Long-Term Economic and Ecologic Impact of Larger ......Growth scenarios 09/12/2014 Presentation for the Committee on Fisheries 17 Growth Value 2010 Value 2030 % 2010 2020 2030

Presentation for the Committee on Fisheries 109/12/2014

The Long-Term Economic andEcologic Impact of LargerSustainable Aquaculture

Alistair Lane - European Aquaculture SocietyCourtney Hough – Federation of European Aquaculture Producers

John Bostock – University of Stirling Institute of Aquaculture.

Presentation for the Committee on Fisheries 2

Structure of the Presentation

1. Current status and challenges to growth.2. Consequences of a larger sector.3. Economic considerations and public support.4. Sustainable development and public policy.

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Sub-sectors considered

• Coldwater marine fish

• Warmwater marine fish

• Freshwater fish

• Shellfish

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EU production of coldwater marine fish 2003-2012

Source: FAO09/12/2014


EU production of warmwater marine fish 2003-2012



EU production of freshwater fish 2003-2012



EU shellfish production 2003-2012



11 Technologies selected• Freshwater pond aquaculture• Coastal pond aquaculture• Intensive freshwater flow-through and partial recirculation• Intensive marine flow-through and partial recirculation• Indoor land-based recirculated aquaculture systems (freshwater)• Indoor land-based recirculated aquaculture systems (marine)• Small cage systems – freshwater• Small cage systems – sheltered marine• Large cage systems – marine in exposed sites• Marine bottom culture• Marine supported and suspended culture.

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Coldwater marine production (2012)

Large cage systems – exposed sites (90%)

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Warmwater marine production (2012)

Small cages (55%)

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Large cages (45%) Land based (5%)


Freshwater production (2012)

Flow through or partialrecirculation (60%)

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Pond (30%)


Shellfish production (2012)

Supported and suspendedculture (90%)

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Bottom culture (10%)


Principal challenges to growth

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Challenge for development Coldwatermarine

Warmwatermarine

Freshwater Shellfish

ECONOMIC

Productivity gains + +++ +++ +

Access to capital + +++ ++ +

Diversification of the offer + +++ +++ ++

ENVIRONMENTAL

Access to high quality water + ++ + +++

Spatial planning +++ +++ +++ +++

Use of outputs + + ++


Principal challenges to growth

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Challenge for development Coldwatermarine

Warmwatermarine

Freshwater Shellfish

SOCIAL

Communicating the attributesand benefits of the sector ++ +++ +++ +

Recruiting high level workforce + ++ ++ +

Generation change + + +++ ++

MARKET

Changing consumerpreferences + +++ +++ +

Labelling and certificationconditions ++ ++ + +

Multiple Retail Store domination +++ +++ ++ +




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Important note on sources

• Scenarios from EATiP/Aquainnova– Regional workshops.– Input from 350 producers & researchers.– Enshrined in the 2012 EATiP Vision.

• No data from MS multi-national plans– Delays in adoption of EMFF.– Several MS have submitted, many have not.– Plans do not generally contain quantified

production estimates or scenarios by species.

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Growth scenarios


Growth Value 2010 Value 2030% 2010 2020 2030 M€ M€

Coldwater Marine 101.0% 190,322 274,021 382,016 572.49€ 1,159.88€

Freshwater 43.0% 331,868 396,156 476,068 869.33€ 1,355.94€

Mediterranean 112.0% 212,784 316,474 452,548 1,032.36€ 2,212.54€

Shellfish 30.0% 653,318 746,407 849,935 1,017.37€ 1,444.77€

Subtotal 1,388,292 1,733,058 2,160,566 3,491.55€ 6,173.13€TOTAL INCREASE 55.6% 772,275 2,681.58€

SummarisedAssumptions

Forecast growth (tonnes)

2010 2030Coldwater Marine 2,139 2,865

Freshwater 22,686 29,409

Mediterranean 13,679 20,365

Shellfish - -

Total Jobs 38,504 52,638Feeds (tonnes) 974,230 1,369,453

Jobs

Source: EATIP / Aquainnova

Salmon feed composition


Source: IFFO

Alternative sources• Processed Animal Proteins (PAPs)• Plants

– oil seeds - soy, rape, cottonseed– cereals – maize, wheat

• Cultured organisms– insects, worms, bacteria

• Marine organisms– micro-algae– seaweed– krill


There are many advantages tousing PAPs in fish feeds, having

strong environmental andnutritional credentials – and high

availability.

It is estimated that there is 10times more PAPs than fishmeal.

Comparable resource use per Kg of edible product


0

200

400

600

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1000

1200

Beef Pork Chicken Salmon

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Source: Welch et al., 2010

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Ecological impact of production technologies


Source: FAO, 2012

Key drivers selected for this study

• Reliance on wild seed• Reliance on feed• Use of fishmeal and oil• Use of power• Infrastructure needs• Freshwater footprint


• Area/production volume• Habitat impact• Escapee impact/risk• Disease spread/risk• Chemical discharge• Protein input/output


System Major Species Projectedproductionincrement (t)

Cumulativeproductionincrease

MOST SIGNIFICANTecological impact issues

Large cage systems –marine in exposedsites

Salmon, sea bream (sea bass) 263,522 31.3% Reliance on feedUse of fish meal/oil

Marine supported andsuspended culture

Mussels, oysters 143,529 48.3%

Small cage systems –sheltered marine

Sea bass, sea bream, trout 106,610 61.0% Reliance on feedHabitat impactNutrient dischargeEscapee impactDisease spread riskChemical discharge

Intensive freshwaterflow-through andpartial recirculationsystems

Trout 87,416 71.3% Reliance on feedUse of fish meal/oilFreshwater footprintNutrient discharge

Marine bottomculture

Mussels, slipper shells, cockles 83,877 81.3% Reliance on wild seedArea/t production


System Major Species Projectedproductionincrement (t)

Cumulativeproductionincrease

MOST SIGNIFICANTecological impact issues

Freshwater pondaquaculture

Carps 67,249 89.3% Area/t production

Indoor land-basedrecirculated aquaculturesystems (marine)

Sea bass, turbot, sole, shrimp 39,711 94.0% Reliance on feedUse of powerInfrastructurerequirements

Indoor land-basedrecirculated aquaculturesystems (freshwater)

Tilapia, catfish 39,153 98.6% Infrastructurerequirements

Intensive marine flow-through and partialrecirculation systems

Turbot & other flatfish 10,585 99.9% Reliance on feedUse of powerInfrastructurerequirements

Coastal pondaquaculture

Sea bream, sea bass, shrimp, 1,168 100%

Small cage systems –freshwater

Trout -136 100% Reliance on feedUse of fish meal/oil

Projected demand for raw materials from fisheries

Fishmeal (t) Fish oil (t) Data sourceEU28 production in 2011 505.000 177.000 FAOEU28 demand in 2012 209.000 80.000 Authors estimateEU28 demand in 2030* 392.000 142.000 Authors estimate


*Assuming no change in diet formulation

Assuming supply only from capture fisheries (i.e. without offcuts ortrimmings), this scenario would represent a demand for 1,96 milliontonnes of feed fish based on fish meal requirements, or 2,37 milliontonnes for both fish meal and oil – hence exceeding the 2014 quota

(1,86 million tonnes) by up to 0,51 million tonnes.

Raw material solutions


• Further reduce fishmeal and oil inclusion rates• Increase use of offcuts and trimmings• Use of PAPs• Use of GM oil seeds• Alternative marine ingredients• Discards




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Economic performance

• FR, IT, GR, ES & UK - 80% of aqua production.• EU aquaculture dominated by microenterprises and

family firms (90% by number), but also large multi-nationalcompanies (marine cold and warm water sub-sectors).

• Continued growth in the sector is likely to be linked toproving added value products, developing niche marketsand being price-competitive in EU markets.


Economic Performance of the EU Aquaculture Sector. JRC/STECF 2013

Public support• Of EUR 1.24 billion programmed under EFF Axis 2, only

EUR 518 million (43%) had been committed across allMember States in 2011.

• Delays in implementation included limited co-financing in anunfavourable economic environment, and late launch of theprogramme, mostly due to delays in validation of theOperating Programmes.

• Under Axis 2, aquaculture represented 27%, inland fishingless than 1% and fish processing and marketing the vastmajority with 72%.


Ernst & Young Interim Report, 2011

Production technology trends• Coldwater and warmwater marine – increase - larger cages,

offshore.• Shellfish production - continues to be dominated by

supported/suspended cultivation systems.• Intensive flow-through systems for freshwater – decline.• Freshwater pond production - stable or increasing.• Coastal pond decline or stagnate – yields & space.• Indoor recirculation (marine and freshwater) - increase for

hatcheries – limited increase for grow out.• Freshwater recirculation - increase.


Where should public support be directed?• MS national plans• Environmental compatibility• Market orientations• Adequate funding for spatial planning• Improved support services (vet, health)• Improved networks/best practice transfer• Productive systems – better water/waste systems• Updating skills and knowledge in the workforce• FLAG approach


S




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Public policy

• Aquaculture is an evident component of manyrecent European strategies, including BlueGrowth and the Bioeconomy.

• To date, very few Member States have clearpolicies on aquaculture development

• Within the reformed CFP, aquaculture shouldcontribute to the Europe 2020 strategy for smart,sustainable and inclusive growth.


Policy recommendations

• Follow up and monitoring of MS multi-annual plans.• Data Collection Framework adapted to include all

forms of aquaculture.• Position of aquaculture within existing environmental

legislation - recommendations existing forNatura2000 and under development for the WFDand for the MSFD. This is essential so as to boostthe potential integration of the activity and theexpansion of site availability.


Policy recommendations (2)

• Assessment and agreed quantification ofenvironmental services provided by aquaculturerequires to be integrated in environmental policy,alongside potential incentives.

• Uniform availability throughout the EU of therapeuticagents and products required for the welfare offarmed fish.



• EMFF budget for MS on size of their fisheries sector,employment, adjustments and continuity of themeasures in hand.

• It is not clear whether or how aquaculturedevelopment is fully considered.

• It is recommended that the EMFF allocation foraquaculture be made in the light of the multi-annualplans of the Member States, and separated fromfisheries.



• The Fisheries Committee of the EuropeanParliament could consider the creation of a sub-Committee dedicated to aquaculture.


Documents

The Long-Term Economic and Ecologic Impact of Larger ......Growth scenarios 09/12/2014 Presentation for the Committee on Fisheries 17 Growth Value 2010 Value 2030 % 2010 2020 2030