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The Long Reach of Early Math Skills
Greg J. DuncanUniversity of California, Irvine
Robert SieglerCarnegie Mellon University
Gaps in Early Math Skills
Obj Count-ing
Next # # Compar-ison
0
25
50
75
3426
3749 54 51
Low Income Middle Income
The Problem Starts in the Preschool Period (Starkey et al., 2004)
% C
orr
ect
High/Low Income
White/Black White/Hispanic0
134
6277
Kindergarten Fifth grade
Math Gaps Persists Across Elementary School
(Duncan and Magnuson, 2011)
Gaps
in S
AT-
typ
e u
nit
s
High/Low Income
White/Black White/Hispanic0
134
6277
138
85
50
Kindergarten Fifth grade
Math Gaps Persists Across Elementary School
(Duncan and Magnuson, 2011)
Gaps
in S
AT-
typ
e u
nit
s
425
450
475
500
525
550
US
Father's Education
8th
Gra
de M
ath
A
chie
vem
en
tMath gaps are biggest in the United States (OECD, 1992)
Low
High
Do Math Gaps Matter?
able to communicate thoughts & needs verbally
enthusiastic and curious in approaching new activities
knowing how to sit still and pay attention
Only 10% thought that it was important that children starting school know numbers and the alphabet
School readiness as defined by kindergarten teachers:
School readiness according to George W. Bush:
“On the first day of school, children need to know letters and numbers. They need a strong vocabulary...These are the building blocks of learning, and this nation must provide them.”
“[T]he elements of early intervention programs that enhance social and emotional development are just as important as the components that enhance linguistic and cognitive competence”
(Shonkoff and Phillips, 2000: 398-99)
School readiness as defined by Neurons to
Neighborhoods:
Our question:
What are the roles of math, reading, attention and socioemotional skills for later child success?
A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors
Skill/behavior domain:
Math and Reading
Achievement
Description: Concrete reading, math,
etc. achievement
skills
Example test areas or
question wording:
Knowing letters and numbers;
beginning word sounds, word
problems
A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors
Skill/behavior domain:
Math and Reading
Achievement
Attention
Description: Concrete reading, math,
etc. achievement
skills
Ability to control impulses and focus on tasks
Example test areas or
question wording:
Knowing letters and numbers;
beginning word sounds, word
problems
Can’t sit still; can’t concentrate;
score from a computer test of impulse control
A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors
Skill/behavior domain:
Math and Reading
Achievement
Attention Anti-social behaviors
Mental health
Description: Concrete reading, math,
etc. achievement
skills
Ability to control impulses and focus on tasks
Ability to get along with
others
Sound mental health
Example test areas or
question wording:
Knowing letters and numbers;
beginning word sounds, word
problems
Can’t sit still; can’t concentrate;
score from a computer test of impulse control
Cheats or tells lies, bullies, is
disobedient at school
Is sad, depressed,
moody
School-entry Skills & Later Achievement
Six longitudinal datasets
School entry measures of skills and behaviors
Outcomes: Reading and math achievement in 1st through 8th grade– Test scores and teacher reports
Covariates: Family SES, child and (in 1 of the 6) mother’s cognitive skills
(Duncan et al., 2007)
In other words: let’s have a horse
race between early academic skills
and behavior and see which ones win
Effects on later achievement
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500
Effects on later achievement
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 500
Anti-social
&Sad,
anxiousReading Math
At-ten-tion
Power of early math skills
Math impacts are adjusted for IQ differences
Early math predicts later reading scores as much as early reading does!
Now let’s look beyond school entry:
What problems in K-5 best predict dropout,
college, etc.
Double Jeopardy: Hernandez (2012)
• One in Six Children Who Are Not Reading Proficiently in Third Grade Fail to Graduate from High School On Time, Four Times the Rate for Children with Proficient Third-Grade Reading Skills
Persistent early school problems and adolescent attainment
Math problems
Reading problems
Attention problems
Anti-social behavior problems
Mental health problems
(Duncan and Magnuson, 2011)
Children with persistent reading problems were:• 32 percentage points less likely to graduate high school• 36 percentage points less likely to attend college
Children with persistent math problems were:• 32 percentage points less likely to graduate high school• 44 percentage points less likely to attend college
Simple associations are even more dramatic:
Effects of persistent K-5 problems on ever attending
college(average = 43%)
0 10 20 30 400
Decrease in probability of attending col-lege
Effects of persistent K-5 problems on ever attending
college(average = 43%)
0 10 20 30 400
Anxiety
ReadingAnti-socialAttention Math
Decrease in probability of attending col-lege
Effects of age 14-16 skills and behaviors on earnings (males
only)
0 5 10 150
Percent increase adult earnings
Effects of age 14-16 skills and behaviors on earnings (males
only)
0 5 10 150
ReadingAnxiety
Anti-social
Attention Math
Percent increase adult earnings
Math matters a lot
• School entry math predicts later school success
• Avoiding persistent math problems in K-5 best predicts college attendance
• Math achievement in adolescence predicts labor market success
Why math? (preliminary)
• Structural story:
• teachers and schools provide extra opportunities for early math achievers?
• moderate math skills keeps kids out of special education?
Why math (con’t)?
• Motivational story:
• Math feedback is very concrete?
• Kids who don’t master math don’t think they are good at math or good at school?
What can be done about it?
We need to know more about what works to promote early math
proficiency
