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The Lone Wolf Threat in Global neo-Jihadi Terrorism
Marc Sageman, M.D., Ph.D.
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What is the threat?
• Global neo-Jihadi Terrorism in the West– Use of violence by non-state collective actors against non-
combatants in the West in pursuit of a global neo-jihad
• What is the trend in the West since 9/11 (duplicated x 3)– In the name of global neo-Jihad– Acts in furtherance– No sting operations– No loners with mental disorders and no link to global neo-Jihad
• 63 Plots in the West
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Global neo-Jihadi Terrorist Plots in the West since 9/11
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AQ Plots in the West
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AQ Plots in the West
• 16 AQ plots in the West since 9/11• Only 1 successful (7/7/05 London bombings)• 13 dependent on homegrown wannabes linking up
with AQ in the Af/Pak border– Only 3 were outside infiltration
• AQ is being decimated by drone campaign & the death of UBL
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AQ Affiliates Plots in the West
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Al Qaeda Affiliates’ Plots in the West
• 8 AQ affiliates’ plots• Most were Western wannabes linking up with
terrorist organizations abroad– Only 3 outside infiltration
• ↑ collaboration between Pakistani groups & AQ
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GnJT Homegrown Plots in the West
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Lone Wolves
Groups
AQ Inspired Plots in the West
• 39 plots: 62% of all plots• 6 successes:
– Madrid ’04; Bouyeri ’04; Maj Hasan ’09; Chowdhry ’10; Abdulwahab ’10; Uka ’11 (2 bombs, 3 guns, 1 knife: amateurs)
• In past 3 years– Most recent mostly L.W. or duos (>3/4 of cases in past 3 years)
• Threat to West is mostly homegrown, scattered, leaderless– Only 10 % were pure infiltration, and 37% had trained abroad
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The turn to political violence
• Political violence emerges out of a specific context• 2-STEP PROCESS
1. Involvement in political protest community (still legal)
2. Turn to violence (illegal: extremist violence)
• SPECIFICITY:– Focus on transition from 1 to 2, by comparing violent
bunches of guys with controls in the political protest community
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Discursive Political Protest Community
• Politically active– Demonstrations, internet forums, social media
• Anchored by specific symbols & rituals– Jihadi cool youth counter-culture life style
• Rejects both Western society AND parental traditions• Political protest social movement: social blob
– Vague, diffuse, porous & fuzzy boundaries– Internally very fluid– No central command & control
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Influence of the Internet• Survivability: built in redundancy
– Promiscuous simultaneous participation in several for a• Greater protection: semi anonymity
– Massive migration to the Internet 8 years ago• Egalitarian structure
– Undermines hierarchy, initiative to followers• Self selection of active participants
– Shift to social media 3 years ago (Facebook, YouTube)– Not passive victims “vulnerable, at risk, or brainwashed…”– Active: trying to make sense of their world, constructing meaning
from available models, & making choices accordingly– Transforms the threat: ↑ teenagers, women & geeks
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2nd Step: Turn to political violence
• Moral Outrage: Emotional driver for violence• Disillusionment with effectiveness of blob
– Too involved to simply abandon political activism– Criticism of blob leaders or imams (“talk, talk,
talk…”), leave mosque– Rejection of blob & non-violent tactics: “enough is
enough”– Personal duty to protect ummah: Fard ‘Ayn
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Emergence of Lone Wolves
• Inclusion criteria of study underestimate # of lone wolves• Trend is ↑ # of lone wolves state of leaderless jihad• Effect of Internet chat-rooms or social media
– Forum for individual w/ extreme views in hostile environment– Seek out similar others online with little risk via social media– Revenge of the nerds: shy individuals drop inhibition that prevent
their participation in F2F communication very active on Internet• Positive feedback validates one’s beliefs ↑ important part
of one’s life confident & assertive of online collective ID• Hardens one’s beliefs: illusion of numbers
– ↑willing to act out: shy online participant offline lone wolf
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Gradual increase in suspicious activities
• ↑ interest in legitimacy of killing• ↑ interest in terrorist activities (may be illegal)
– Downloading information for skill acquisition– Discussing terrorist activities online, practicing, casing targets– Financing operations: personal $/ fraudulent loans (not expensive)
• Getting means of destruction (may be illegal)
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Turn To Violence: 2 Step Process
“Blob: A loose amorphous collection of people who act without a central command”
Political Protest Community
Turn to political to violence
• Violence comes at the tail end of political social movement– ↓ blob ↑ people frustrated w/ it & turning to violence– Disorganized, scattered: lone wolves
• Not linear path: 2 step process– Fits & starts; zigzag patterns of commitments according to local &
foreign historical contingencies
• Not deterministic: most give up even at advanced stage• Very rare events:
– Hostile environment & lack of availability– Dependent on chance connections & perseverance of active core
in pursuit of conspiracy despite ubiquity of difficulties & obstacles
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