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M A R K E T I N T E L L I G E N C E • A N A L Y S I S • B E N C H M A R K I N G
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. Notice: No material in this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,
or transmitted by any means, in whole or in part, without the express written permission of Navigant Consulting, Inc.
The Lithium Ion Battery Market Supply and Demand
ARPA E RANGE Conference
January 28, 2014 Sam Jaffe
Senior Research Analyst
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 2
Navigant Research provides in-depth analysis of global
clean technology markets.
The team’s research methodology combines supply-side
industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand
assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to
provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy
ecosystem.
Introduction
Sector Focus:
Smart Energy
Smart Utilities
Smart Transportation
Smart Industry
Smart Buildings
Research Offerings:
Research Reports
Subscription Research Services
Custom Market Research
• Go-To-Market Strategy
• Custom Market Analysis
• Market Sizing & Forecasts
• Primary Research
• Technology Evaluation
• Commercial Due Diligence
• Competitive Benchmarking
• Strategic Advisory Sessions
3 ©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» Secondary lithium ion battery first developed by Dr. Stan Whittingham at
Exxon in early 1980s
» Shortly thereafter, Dr. John Goodenough of Texas developed the first lithium
cobalt batteries and later patented the first lithium iron phosphate batteries
» Sony launched the first commercial Li-ion battery for consumer electronics in
1991
» Today, Li-ion powers most portable tools and devices, as well as most EVs
and stationary storage systems
Lithium Ion History
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 4
Lithium Ion Chemistries
» Lithium Ion Cobalt (LCO)
› Energy density: 120 Wh/kg to 180 Wh/kg
› Primary use: consumer electronics
› Cost range: $250/kWh to $450/kWh
› Manufacturers: Samsung SDI, Lishen, ATL,
Sony
» Lithium Manganese Spinel (LMO)
› Energy density: 105 Wh/kg to 120 Wh/kg
› Primary use: automotive, stationary
› Cost range: $400/kWh to $900/kWh
› Manufacturers: LG Chem, Samsung SDI
» Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP)
› Energy density: 80 Wh/kg to 110 Wh/kg
› Primary use: automotive, stationary
› Cost range: $400/kWh to $1,200/kWh
› Manufacturers: A123, BYD
» Lithium Titanate (LTO)
› Energy density: 60 Wh/kg to 105 Wh/kg
› Primary use: bus, automotive
› Cost range: $800/kWh to $2,000/kWh
› Manufacturers: ATL, Toshiba, Microvast,
LeClanche
» Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC)
› Energy density: 120 Wh/kg to 200 Wh/kg
› Primary use: automotive, stationary
› Cost range: $700/kWh to $900/kWh
› Manufacturers: Dow Kokam, JCI
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 5
Beyond Lithium Ion Chemistries
» Magnesium Ion
› Energy density: 80 Wh/kg to 120 Wh/kg
› Primary use: automotive, consumer
electronics
› Cost range: $800/kWh to $1,000/kWh
› Strengths: Cycle life durability, low-cost
inputs
› Companies: Toyota, Apple, Pellion
» Lithium Sulfur (LiS)
› Energy density: 220Wh/kg to 500 Wh/kg
› Primary use: consumer electronics,
aerospace
› Cost range: $1,400/kWh to $2,000/kWh
› Strengths: best proven energy density in
non-hypothetical cells, low-cost inputs
› Companies: Nohms, Amprius, Polyplus,
Oxis, Sion
» Lithium Air (LO)
› Energy density: 500 Wh/kg to 4,000 Wh/kg
› Primary use: all applications
› Cost range: N/A (experimental)
› Strength: Highest potential energy density
› Companies: IBM, Toyota, Samsung
» Lithium Capacitor (LiC)
› Energy density: 15 Wh/kg to 35 Wh/kg
› Primary use: SSVs, forklifts
› Cost range: $2,500/kWh to $3,500/kWh
› Strengths: Cycle life longevity and power
burst capabilities
› Companies: JSR, Hitachi
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Power Tools
Laptops
Video Cameras
Feature Phones
Hybrid EV's
Telecom Backup Power
Lithium Ion Inflection Point
Lithium Ion Market Share by Segment, World Markets: First Five Years
(Source: Navigant Research)
Inflection Point
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 7
Comparison to Other Batteries
Battery Cost by Battery Chemistry: 2013-2020
(Source: Navigant Research)
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2013 2015 2020
($/k
Wh
)
Advanced Lead-Acid Carbon Flow BatteriesLarge Format Li-ion Lead-AcidSmall Format Li-ion Sodium SulfurZEBRA
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 8
Lithium Ion Cell Pricing Forecast
Lithium Ion Battery Pricing by Cell Type: 2009-2020
(Source: Navigant Research)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Consumer Electronics Li-ion 1,250 750 500 350 225 215 200 200 195 190 188 187
Large Format Li-ion 1,800 1,200 850 600 500 380 290 275 250 220 200 180
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
($/k
Wh
)
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 9
EV Battery Pack Trends
» Tesla Model S
› 65 kWh
› Nickel cobalt aluminum (NCA) 18650
cells by Panasonic
› Estimated cost of cells: $25,000
› Estimated cost of pack: $40,000
» Nissan LEAF
› 25 kWh
› LMO cells by AESC
› Estimated cost of cells: $11,000
› Estimated cost of pack: $16,000
» Chevrolet Volt
› 16 kWh
› LMO by LG Chem
› Estimated cost of cells: $9,600
› Estimated cost of pack: $17,000
» Toyota Plug-in Prius
› 4.4 kWh
› NCA cells by Panasonic
› Estimated cost of cells: $3,500
› Estimated cost of pack: $8,000
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 10
Lithium Ion EV Battery Forecast
Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2022
(Source: Navigant Research)
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
($ B
illio
ns)
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Middle East & Africa
11 ©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» Frequency regulation
› Primary chemistry in use: LFP
› Approximate global capacity: 88 MW, 22 MWh
» Renewables integration
› Primary chemistry in use: LMO
› Approximate global capacity: 160 MW, 960 MWh
» Spinning reserves
› Primary chemistry in use: LFP
› Approximate global capacity: 18 MW, 14 MWh
» Peak shaving
› Primary chemistry in use: LFP
› Approximate global capacity: 40 MW, 40 MWh
» Load shifting
› Primary chemistry in use: N/A
› Approximate global capacity: 0 kW, 0 kWh
End-Use Applications for Stationary Storage
Tehachapi Energy Storage Project Rendering
(Source: Southern California Edison)
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 12
Lithium Ion Stationary Storage Forecast
Lithium Ion Stationary Storage Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2012-2022
(Source: Navigant Research)
$-
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
($ B
illio
ns)
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Middle East
Africa
13 ©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved.
» The thirst for more battery power
› Power tools require bursts of large amounts of power
› Cordless devices are more common on work sites than
corded
› Smartphones replaced tablets which replaced laptops which
replaced desktops
» The thirst for more battery energy
› Battery life is the single most desired specification in
consumer electronics devices
› Next-generation devices are being designed around the
battery cell, not the CPU
» The downsizing of energy needs in portable devices
› At the same time that batteries are getting larger and more
powerful, applications (like GPS apps, video compression,
and screen management) are reducing their energy
requirements
Trends in Portable Application Batteries
Motorola Droid RAZR Maxx HD:
5-Day Battery Life in 2013
Motorola RAZR:
32-Hour Battery Life in 2006
(Source: Motorola)
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 14
Portable Application Markets
» Consumer electronics
› Current chemistry leader: LCO
› Potential future chemistry leader: LiS
› Most important specifications: energy
density
» Power tools
› Current chemistry leader: LCO
› Potential future chemistry leader: NMC
› Most important specifications: power
density, safety
» Defense
› Current chemistry leader: LCO
› Potential future chemistry leader: LiS
› Most important specifications: energy
density, cycle life
» Medical
› Current chemistry leader: Lithium
thionyl chloride (primary)
› Potential future chemistry leader: NMC
› Most important specifications: safety,
cycle life, calendar life
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 15
Lithium Ion Consumer Electronics Forecast
Lithium Ion for Consumer Electronics Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
(Source: Navigant Research)
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
($ B
illio
ns)
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Middle East & Africa
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 16
Lithium Ion Power Tool Battery Forecast
Lithium Ion for Power Tools Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2023
(Source: Navigant Research)
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
($ M
illio
ns)
North America Western Europe
Eastern Europe Asia Pacific
Latin America Middle East & Africa
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 17
Global Forecast for All Lithium Ion Shipments
Lithium Ion Revenue by Region, All Segments, World Markets: 2012-2023
(Source: Navigant Research)
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
($ B
illi
on
s)
North America
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Middle East & Africa
©2013 Navigant Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. 18
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