The Joint ECE/ILO Group meetings on Consumer Price Indices – 30 years on

Some history

• First meeting 1978• ILO initiative

– To promulgate & share good practice• First recorded minutes 1978 (papers not located)

– Different indices for different uses– Domestic versus national concepts (foreign visitors)– Imputed rents for owner-occupier housing costs– Personal insurance and the “feeling of security” element (nature of

the service)– A lot of discussion but FEW SOLUTIONS

• Since 1978– 12 meetings– 200+ papers

• 20+ developing countries or countries in transition– 55 organisations– Exceptionally wide range of issues

Milestones & Outputs

• First few meetings fed into – 1987 ILO resolution on Consumer Price Indices– 1989 ILO/Turvey manual on CPIs (manual

acknowledges input from 1981 & 1986 ILO meetings)

• Subsequent meetings fed into– 2003 ILO resolution on Consumer Price Indices– The ILO Consumer Price Index Manual: Theory &

Practice (published 2004)

• Links built with UN Ottawa Group on CPIs (first meeting in 1994)

Overview

• Remit to experience sharing fulfilled– Presentation of national methodological changes (8%) & specific

country issues/examples (5%)• Basic conceptual issues & associated practical

measurement not resolved (few countries compile conceptually pure family of indices)

– COLIs (3%) & family of indices (2%)• Concern with organisation & management (safeguarding integrity of

index & reputation of NSI)– Quality management (4%)

• Specific topics– Owner occupier housing costs (no consensus, not in HICP)

– Quality change, including hedonics (little evidence of systematic/harmonised approach)

– Services (for example financial services)

– Scanner data (improve CPI quality & data gathering efficiency)

– Sampling – efficiency and bias (outlet/product substitution bias, sampling efficiency)

Achievements

• Sharing of expertise – Practitioners and Researchers– UNECE publications, website etc

• Identification of common compilation issues– Quality change and bias (examples)

• Advice to National Statistical Institutes– Or referring to Ottawa Group for guidance

• Recommendations to UNSC– Prioritisation of future work programmes

• Indirect input into– International CPI Manual (2004)– ILO resolution (2003)

• Identification of future axes of research

Issues

• Limited progress in some strategic and difficult areas e.g. services & owner occupier housing costs.

• Lack of common approach to the detailed practical application of agreed methodologies e.g. hedonics.

• Lack of focus & relevant tools for prioritisation of index development work – precision versus bias (value for money versus relevance).

• Coherence between different price indices and limited global harmonisation.

• lack a strategic approach by NSIs to development of price indices. CPI metadata for 36 countries shows 10 exclude owner occupier

housing costs, 11 cover only urban areas, the price collection period varies from one day to one month

Future Priorities and Future Working

Need for a more systematic approach to index construction and development with the goal of moving to the production of a more coherent and inclusive family of good quality and fit-for-purpose price indices using internationally recognised standard methodologies to lead to increased global harmonisation.

Possible Actions:

• Strategic input into future agendas• Individual countries to commit to taking forward in own index

development and to move agenda forward in their national index development programmes

• A reaffirmation to share experiences• Fully exploit relationships Ottawa Group experts.

Panel Discussion

Questions for Panel

• Please tell us what you think have been:– the main strengths & weaknesses of the joint

UNECE/ILO meetings?– the meeting’s noteworthy achievements?

• What are the main outstanding issues for compilers?

• What does this mean for the next agenda, the way countries engage with one another between meetings, mode of working with the Ottawa Group

• Anything else?

Joint UNECE/ILO Meetings – 30 Years On

OPEN DISCUSSION

Topics Discussed (1978 – 2006)

Topic Count % National Methodological Changes 17 8 Housing 14 7 Quality Change 14 7 General National Examples 11 5 Sampling 10 5 Hedonics 9 4 Scanner Data 9 4 Taxes 9 4 Quality Management 8 4 Calculation 7 3 COLI 7 3 Core Inflation 7 3 General Measurement Issues 6 3 Price Collection 6 3

Topics Discussed (1978 – 2006) Topic Count %Seasonality 6 3Family of Indices 5 2HICP 5 2Errors 4 2Regional/Population specific CPIs 4 2Weights 4 2Financial Services 4 2CPI Manual 3 1International Methodology 3 1International Regulations/Meetings 3 1Terminology 3 1Bias 2 1E-commerce 2 1Import Prices 2 1International CPI 2 1Output Prices 2 1

Panel discussion