The Issue of the 21st Century

© Jonathan Wootliff, Prague, Czech Republic, November 2015

CLIMATE CHANGE

Jonathan Wootliff

Presentation to Rotary International

Prague, Thursday 26th November 2015

The Issue of the

21st Century


CLIMATE CHANGE

Risks & Opportunities

for Business


CLIMATE CHANGE

My Perspective


The Issue of the 21st Century

2006


The Greenhouse Gas Effect


Growing Concern


Growing Concern


…but not without controversy

SCIENCE EQUITY


Two Planets!

Sceptics v. Advocates


Czech Republic


European Union

2020 Target

o 20% cut in greenhouse gas

emissions (from 1990 levels)

o 20% of EU energy from

renewables

o 20% improvement in energy

efficiency

2030

o At least 40% cuts in

greenhouse gas emissions

(from 1990 levels)

o At least 27% share for

renewable energy

o At least 27% improvement in

energy efficiency


CO2 Emissions


The Past 1000 Years


Sources of Greenhouse Gases


Insurance Claims


1972 United Nations

Conference on

Human

Development

Stockholm

1972

A Short History


COP 21 Paris Goal

40-70% GHG reduction by 2050


US represents 4% of the world’s

population and generates 26% of the

world’s carbon dioxide

Africa produces 4% of world’s GHGs

Developed countries represent less

than 25% of the world’s population but

account for 55 %of the world’s GHGs

There’s a 40 year time-lag in the

impacts of GHGs – we’re now only

experiencing the consequences from

1973 when there were 4 billion people

Population grown from 2 billion in 1960

to 7.5 billion today -- 10 billion by 2050

Some Key Facts


Maintain our lifestyles, continue to grow

our economies and wealth without

compromising the health of the planet

for future generations

Avoid further expanding the gap

between rich and poor nations

Take effective mitigation steps

Adapt to inevitable changes

Capitalise on the economic

opportunities?

Some Key Challenges


Business is being increasingly targeted by

NGOs

Business being demonised as the main

cause of global warming and becomes a

pariah

Media attention to climate change

seriously concerns the general public and

pressurises governments in to extreme

policies

Restrictive legislation could make the

costs to some businesses unviable /

unsustainable

Others could loose their licence to operate

Economic Threat or Opportunity


Business responds with new, viable

and attractive, growth solutions

Progressive companies can enhance

their reputations, raise capital and

attract investors though innovative

practices and initiatives

Businesses to actually make money out

of climate change solutions

Out of the box thinkers will be

significantly rewarded

The smart players will be the next

“Facebooks” and “Googles”, and will

become real heroes of the planet

Economic Threat or Opportunity


Fully understand the issues and follow

developments closely

Assess all risks posed by climate change

Create an internal ethos that embraces

debate & innovation

Find ways to reduce GHGs and begin

implementation

Introduce a culture of transparency

Anticipate new legislation and taxation

approaches

Be prepared to adapt

Explore new business opportunities

Business Imperatives


Costs of adverse impacts will increase significantly

Water and food will become more costly, and disease and other

threats to human health will increase

More than a million species face extinction from disappearing

habitat, changing ecosystems, and acidifying oceans

The ocean's circulation system, known as the ocean conveyor

belt, could be permanently altered, causing a mini-ice age in

Europe and other rapid changes

At some point in the future, warming could become

uncontrollable by creating a so-called “positive feedback effect”

Rising temperatures could release additional GHGs by unlocking

methane in permafrost and undersea deposits, freeing carbon

trapped in sea ice, and causing increased evaporation of water

“Business As Usual”


Sea level could rise between 18 to 59 centimeters by century's

end within the next decade

Some hundred million people live within 1 meter of mean sea

level, and much of the world's population is concentrated in

vulnerable coastal cities

Glaciers around the world could melt, causing sea levels to rise

while creating water shortages in regions dependent on runoff for

fresh water

Strong hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, wildfires, and other

natural disasters may become commonplace in many parts of the

world. The growth of deserts may also cause food shortages in

many places

Weather patterns will become all together less predictable

“Business As Usual”


The World in Constant Transition


The World in Constant Transition


Growing public concern translates in to

political will

Offsetting & Carbon trading will increase

(but not without backlash)

Governments will introduce carbon taxes

and other financial incentives

Mandatory emissions reporting will be

introduced for companies

Exciting new technologies and businesses

will emerge

Decentralised, renewable power

generation eventually take over

Economies will eventually benefit

A Look Into The Future


Mitigation

Adaptation

Precaution

Closing Thoughts


Humankind can always be relied

on to make the right decisions

and do the right thing…

Closing Thoughts


Humankind can always be relied

on to make the right decisions

and do the right thing…

…after exploring all other

possibilities

Closing Thoughts


Instability

Uncertainty

Uncontrolled costs

Liability

Lack of confidence

Climate Change is Bad for

Business


IT’S ABOUT OUR FUTURE

Documents

The Issue of the 21st Century