The Internet in Developing Nations: A Grand Challenge Larry Press Professor, IS CSU Dominguez Hills

The Internet in Developing Nations: A Grand Challenge

Larry PressProfessor, ISCSU Dominguez Hills

A grand challenge: connecting the world’s rural villages

Larry PressProfessor, ISCSU Dominguez Hillshttp://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress/

Measuring and Reducing the Digital Divide: a Grand Challenge

Larry PressProfessor, ISCalifornia State University, Dominguez

[email protected]

Background

We have done Training Pilot studies ICT readiness assessments Conferences and workshops

Outline Background Village applications and business

models Backbone architecture and

feasibility Project policies (lessons learned

from NSFNet) Conclusion – G8

Outline

A decade of activity Where are we? A grand challenge: connect all

villages The NSFNet strategy Cabled and wireless technologies Why Bangladesh?

Outline A decade of activity The NSF approach Architecture and feasibility Village models and applications Action plan – WSIS

Outline

A decade of measurement activity Time for action – a grand challenge:

• Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.

• 3 billion people

• 3 million villages

A Grand Challenge

Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.

3 billion people

3 million villages

Grand challenges

I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth.

John F. Kennedy, 1961 That's one small step for a man, one

giant leap for mankind. Neil Armstrong, 1969

Grand Challenges

I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth.

John F. Kennedy, 1961 That's one small step for a man, one

giant leap for mankind. Neil Armstrong, 1969

A Grand Challenge


3 billion people

3 million villages

A Grand Challenge


3 billion people

3 million villages

A grand challenge

Connecting the approximately 3 billion people residing in 3 million villages of the developing nations within ten years.

A grand challenge

Connecting the approximately three billion people residing in three million rural villages of the developing nations within ten years.

A grand challenge

Connecting the approximately three billion people residing in three million rural villages of the developing nations within ten years.

A grand challenge

Build IP backbones providing high-speed connectivity to and a point of presence in every rural village in every developing nation within ten years.

(There are roughly 3 million villages and 3 billion people in low and lower income nations).

Possible ICT Grand Challenges Provide high-speed IP connectivity

to all villages Provide access to all engineering

and scientific literature and data sets at all universities

A proposal The G8 just pledged to increase African

aid by $25 billion per year. A portion of that increase should be

used for a high-speed Internet backbone to and a point of presence in every African village.

There are 3 billion people in 3 million villages in developing nations

1990s hypothesis Computer networks can improve the

quality of life in developing nations at a relatively low cost

Marginal impact increased by a lack of alternative ICT and transportation

Raising the quality of rural life will reduce pressure for urban migration

1990s Hypothesis Computer networks could improve

life in developing nations at a relatively low cost

Marginal impact could be relatively great due to a lack of alternative ICT

Raising the quality of rural life will reduce migration pressure

This motivated 15 years work

ICT measurement and readiness studies

Pilot applications and business models

Training Conferences and workshops

Background

Over a decade of activity

We have done Training Pilot studies ICT readiness assessments Conferences and workshops

Over a decade of activity Early hypothesis Experience with applications

supporting those hypothesis

E-readiness assessments

10 statistical/questionnaire methodologies

8 case study methodologies 137 nations have been assessed at least

once 55 nations have been assessed at least 5

times 10 nations have been assessed at least

10 times

DOI vs. average of other indices

Correlation coefficient = .96

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 10 20 30 40

DOI

Av

era

ge

of

oth

er

ind

ice

s

Successful Applications

Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and human rights E-government News and entertainment

Where are we? Many applications have been

demonstrated. The Internet is on the “radar

screen” But the digital divide persists Capital is not available

Early successes, still operating Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and Human Rights E-government Entertainment

IP Connectivity, 2003

Income

Population Subscribers

Per 100

Low 2,413 5,424 .22

Lower middle

2,393 69,762 2.92

Upper middle

331 12,150 3.68

High 961 216,069 22.48

World 6,097 303,405 4.98

Internet subscribers, 2003

Income

Population Subscribers

Per 100

Low 2,413 5,424 .22

Lower middle

2,393 69,762 2.92

Upper middle

331 12,150 3.68

High 961 216,069 22.48

World 6,097 303,405 4.98

Cannot attract private capital Cost of 20 hours access as percent

of average monthly GNI per capita

Low income nations

246.4

Lower middle income

24.9

Upper middle income

8.6

High income 1.6

On the “radar screen”

Every government is aware of the strategic importance of the Internet

(risks too)



(risks too)

Mosaic dimensions

After 10-15 years work We have evidence that the

hypothesis is true The digital divide persists Capital is not available The Internet is on the “radar

screen” – all governments recognize the communication-development link


Every government is aware of the strategic importance (and risks) of the Internet

Multilateral institutions – G8, World Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also well aware of the role of communication in development

Time for action

We have done

ICT readiness assessments Pilot studies Training Conferences and workshops






10 times

“State of” Annuals

How to proceed? The NSF approach Architecture and feasibility Village models and applications Action plan – WSIS

After 10-15 years work We have evidence that the

hypothesis is true The digital divide persists Capital is not available The Internet is on the “radar

screen” – all governments recognize the communication-development link

Connectivity, 1991

Internet diffusion, 9/1991

Internet diffusion, 6/1997

Generic Digital Divide

The “digital divide” persists

We have done

ICT readiness assessments Pilot studies Training Conferences and workshops

Where are we? Many applications have been

demonstrated. The Internet is on the “radar

screen” But the digital divide persists Capital is not available

Where are we? The digital divide persists Capital is not available Many applications have been

demonstrated The Internet is on the “radar

screen”

An unconnected nation No national backbone network No residential connectivity No commercial application Character-oriented email and news

primary applications Connectivity only in a few universities

The US in 1989



Multilateral institutions – G8, World Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also well aware of the role of communication in development

Time for action



(risks too)



Multilateral institutions – G8, World Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also

On the G8 “radar screen” Established Digital Opportunity

Task Force at the 2000 Summit Japan pledged $15 billion

On the “radar screen:” WSIS Connect villages with ICTs and

establish community access points by 2015

Nine other targets related to ICT

On the “radar screen:” UN Millennium Development Goal In cooperation with the private

sector make available the benefits of new technologies, specifically information and communications.

Successful Applications

Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and human rights E-government News and entertainment

Village models and applications

Three successful approaches in the village Corporate owner, single

application “Franchise” centers State owned

Many successful pilots

Sustainable approaches to village Internet centers

Corporate owner, single application

“Franchise” centers State owned

N-Logue rural Kiosk Remote medicine Remote veterinary Remote agricultural

advice E-government E-mail digital photography desktop publishing Telephony Break even at

$75/mo.

YCC mobile unit

Cuban Youth Computer Clubs

350 YCCs Geographicall

y dispersed Education Games Email News

YCC mobile unit

E-choupal home page

E-choupal services

Login Weather Crop best practices Market related information Agricultural queries Suggestion box Farmer profile Government schemes News

E-Chaupal

ITC, an Indian conglomerate (agribusiness, infotech, hotels, etc.)

Remote centers at agricultural hub locations

Savings in logistics and middlemen Payback time 8 months to 2 years Using VSAT and a single application

Early successes, still operating Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and Human Rights E-government Entertainment

Education Youth Computer Clubs, Cuba

http://www.jovenclub.cu/ Enlaces Network, Chile

http://www.redenlaces.cl/

Health care Healthnet Satellife

http://www.healthnet.org Healthnet in Nepal

http://www.healthnet.org.np/

E-commerce Soviet Union: Relcom (96/391

commercial accounts, 9/91) www.relcom.ru

Information Village research project http://www.mssrf.org/

Software export from developing nations

E-government

Democracy and Human Rights

From Relcom during the 1991 Soviet Coup attempt:

“They try to close all mass media. They stopped CNN an hour ago, and Soviet TV transmits opera and old movies.”

“Yes, we already prepared to shift to underground; you know -- reserve nodes, backup channel, hidden locations. They'll have a hard time catching us!”

Entertainment and connection to the outside world

Many quips: quick-impact projects

International Development Research Centre http://www.idrc.ca/

Information for Development Program, Infodev http://www.infodev.org/

Development Gateway http://www.developmentgateway.org/

Sustainable Development Networking Program http://www.sdnp.undp.org/

NSFNet approach and strategy

Project policies – lessons learned from NSFNet

An unconnected nation No national backbone network No residential connectivity No commercial application Character-oriented email and news

primary applications Connectivity only in a few universities

The US in 1989

The NSFNet Approach

Developing nations challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.

NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every university in the United States.

The NSFNet Approach



The NSFNet Strategy

Build backbone Fund connectivity (POP, router and

link) Connect

US higher education networks International research and education

networks Users in control

The NSFNet Approach



The NSFNet Strategy

Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSF $125 million Expert designers on temporary assignment Users in control – IP protocol implies

decentralized funding and innovation

The NSFNet Strategy

Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSF $125 million Users in control – IP protocol implies design Expert designers on temporary assignment

NSFNet – seeding the Internet

Build backbone connecting key sites Fund connectivity and POP (router

and a link) Connect


networks First IP backbone – seeded the

Internet

NSFNet T1 Backbone, 1991

The NSFNet Approach



NSFNet – seeding the Internet

Build backbone connecting key sites Fund connectivity and POP (router

and a link) Connect


networks First IP backbone – seeded the

Internet

The NSFNet Strategy

Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSFnet $125 million total cost

Users in control – IP protocol implies decentralized funding and innovation

R&D project – expert designers on temporary assignment, not government staff

Highly leveraged:Government funding ($million)

Project Cost

Morse telegraph .03

ARPANet 25

CSNet 5

NSFNet backbone 57.9

NSF higher ed connections

30

NSF international connections

6

User control Universities designed their LANs Universities funded their LANs Universities trained their users Users invented applications –

innovation at the edges of the network

A “dumb,” end-to-end network – IP is a design philosophy as well as a protocol.

NSFNet with regional links

NSFNet

Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router

and a link) Connect


networks

Highly leveraged:Government funding ($million)

Project Cost

Morse telegraph .03

ARPANet 25

CSNet 5

NSFNet backbone 57.9

NSF higher ed connections

30

NSF international connections

6

User control Universities designed their LANs Universities funded their LANs Universities trained their users Users invented applications –

innovation at the edges of the network

A “dumb,” end-to-end network – IP is a design philosophy as well as a protocol.

Areas of expertise for GRNetGeographic Information Systems Local GeographyTerrestrial wireless design and practiceFiber optic design and installationNetwork operation center designNetwork modeling and optimizationSatellite research and practiceHigh altitude platform research and practiceVillage POP configuration designTraining for POP operationDesign of solar and other power systemsSpectrum politics and policyMechanical design for radio towersVillage telecommunication centers and applications

Expert designers on temporary assignment

UCLA MIT SRI BBN NSF Michigan Etc.

NSFNet

Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router

and a link) Connect


networks

NSFNet Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router

and a link) Connect


networks

Technologies Cabled Wireless today Wireless to consider

Backbone architecture and feasibility

Architecture and feasibility

Fiber Backbone, Mesh, POPs

Fiber where possible – follow the roads

Use cable links where possible

Use fiber wherever possible

Wireless technology Today

VSAT Various terrestrial technologies

Soon WiMAX

Worth investigating High altitude platforms LEO constellations GIS-based radiation modeling

VSAT

High-Altitude Platform

Sanswire HAP

Sanswire HAP 245 x 145 x 87 feet Proprietary lifting gas technology Outer envelope covered in film solar panels Solar powered electric motors Held in position using 6 onboard GPS units Desired altitude: 65,000 feet Line-of-sight to a 300,000 square mile area Controlled by earth stations on the ground Flight time: 18 months

Sanswire progress May 2005: floating tests July 2005: joint venture to deploy

five platforms in Colombia

FiberAfrica 70,000 Km fiber core 30,000 Km fiber spurs Wireless to fiber Reach 400 million Walking/bicycling

distance 1 billion dollars

Daunting, but with precedents

Cost context, $billion Manhattan project: 1.889 US Interstate Highway system: 128.9 Apollo program: 25.4 GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to complete Baseball stadium: .581 B2 bomber: 2.2 US pet food: 10 per year G8 African pledge: 25 per year (new)

Wireless technology Today

VSAT Proprietary terrestrial technologies

Soon WiMAX – may unify terrestrial

wireless Worth watching

High altitude platforms Constellations of LEO satellites

LEO constellation

Cost context, $billion Manhattan project: 1.889 US Interstate Highway system: 128.9 Apollo program: 25.4 GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to complete Baseball stadium: .581 B2 bomber: 2.2 US pet food: 10 per year G8 African pledge: 25 per year (new funds)

WiMAX may unify wide-area terrestrial wireless

License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user)? Global regulatory conformity? “Competition” from next generation Wi-Fi? “Competition” from 3rd generation

cellular? “Competition” from new license-free

bands

WiMAX issues License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user) Global regulatory conformity “Competition” from 802.11 “Competition” from 3rd generation

cellular “Competition” from new license-

free bands

Sanswire HAP


Sanswire progress May 2005: floating tests July 2005: joint venture to deploy

five platforms in Colombia

Radiation modeling with GIS

Wireless supplements VSAT Terrestrial wireless Worth investigating

LEO constellations High altitude platforms GIS-based radiation

modeling

WiMAX – 802.16 Worldwide Interoperability for

Microwave Access Three architectures

Point to point Point to multipoint P to P or P to MP plus mesh

WIMAX Promises Non line of site Up to 50 kilometers Up to 70 mbps 802.20 mobile applications

Unique MAC, modulation, etc?



free bands

WiMAX may unify wide-area terrestrial wireless

License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user)? Global regulatory conformity? “Competition” from next generation Wi-Fi? “Competition” from 3rd generation

cellular? “Competition” from new license-free

bands

WiFi and WiMAX are version 1 Moore’s Law

Smart radios and antennae FCC has noticed WiFi success NPRM, license-free

3,650-3,700 MHz 25 Watt EIRP

NOI, license-free “White space” TV channels Lower frequency

FCC Wireless Broadband Access Task Force

WiMAX Market Development

BWCS Limited

Wireless technologies to investigate LEO constellations High-altitude platforms Radiation modeling with GIS

Why Bangladesh? Need is great Some positive points

Great need Pent up demand: cable landing,

poor telephone infrastructure (300k users)

Poor people – great marginal impact

Positive points Densely populated – reach with

fiber Railroad right of way Power Grid Company

Positive experience with micro-credit

Government will

2002 Population Density/km2

Bangladesh 925

India 329

Sri Lanka 289

Pakistan 182

Nepal 164

China 134

Myanmar 72

Bhutan 15

Grameen Bank Microcredit

Grameen Phone, since 1993 45 million people in 30,000 villages $300 million with $44m after tax

profit $2 daily profit is over twice BD

average

WEF Global Competitiveness,2003-4 Network readiness index 92/102

National savings rate 34/102 Access to credit 46/102 Inflation 37/102 Local equity market access 35/95 Intensity of local competition 52/95

Government prioritization of ICT 43/102

Workshop goal

Bangladesh backbone POP in every “village” “High speed” Use the NSF approach Detailed, funded proposal by

WSIS

Pondicherry Information Links






10 times


Cost context, $billion Manhattan project: 1.889 US Interstate Highway system: 128.9 Apollo program: 25.4 GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to

complete Baseball stadium: .581 B2 bomber: 2.2 US pet food: 10 per year

Steps Begin with a pilot nation Design and implement the network

using a team of experts Apply lessons learned to other

nations

Which pilot nation?Strong government support of

telecommunicationOpen, competitive telecommunication marketOpen, competitive business practices and lawsHigh level of povertyHigh level of literacyDense populationHigh-speed international fiber linksStrong university programs in EE, CS, and GISVaried climate and topography

Bangladesh?

+ Densely populated – reach with fiber+ Very poor+ Undersea cable coming+ Extreme climate+ Positive experience with micro-credit- Government will not clear- Low literacy rate- Weak universities



free bands

Why Bangladesh? Need is great Some positive points

Great need Pent up demand: cable landing,

poor telephone infrastructure (300k users)

Poor people – great marginal impact

The NSFNet Strategy Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router and a

link) Connect

US higher education networks International research and education networks

Highly leveraged -- $125 million Users in control Use expert designers

Which pilot nation?Strong government support of

telecommunicationOpen, competitive telecommunication marketOpen, competitive business practices and lawsHigh level of povertyHigh level of literacyDense populationHigh-speed international fiber linksStrong university programs in EE, CS, and GISVaried climate and topography

Steps Begin with a pilot nation Design and implement the network

using a team of experts



free bands

Conclusion

Okinawa G8 summit, July 2000 Focused on information and communication

technology Billions of dollars were pledged (Japan alone

promised $15 billion) Digital Opportunity Task Force was formed

"to identify ways in which the digital revolution can benefit all the world's people, especially the poorest and most marginalized groups."

A few reports and no action

We have many of the needed skills -- what is the role/responsibility of AIS in developing nations?

Action plan Network design for a pilot nation Deploy in the network in a pilot Planning for implementation in

other nations. Implementation in those nations.

Let us continue the conversation

[email protected]

http://som.csudh.edu/fac/lpress

Documents

The Internet in Developing Nations: A Grand Challenge Larry Press Professor, IS CSU Dominguez Hills