THE INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF

BIOTERRORISM THREATEpisode I. Introduction

Glushkov Institute of CyberneticsNational Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

Konstantyn Atoyev

Konstantyn Atoyev was born in Tbilisi (Georgia, USSR). Graduated from Tbilisi State University ( Department of Physics). Ph.D. in biocybernetics (1984). Senior member of Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics of Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences ( Kiev, Ukraine)The research interests can be broadly defined as optimization, modeling and risk analysis of epidemiological, ecological, biological and social systems. Author of more than 100 scientific articles and works. Member of SRA.

«These are challenges all nations face, and no nation can meet alone. And so I say again, let us meet them together. We must not give up. We must keep on fighting».

Bill Clynton Remarks to the People of Ukraine in Kiev, June 5, 2000

INTRODUCTION

The events of September, 11 has ob-viously demonstrated the vulnerability of antiterrorist defense system that is currently in piece.

The development of biotechnologies in the nineties has simplified the process of biological agent production to a great extent. It is alarming, as genetically engineered organism might resistant to all known vaccines and drugs.

It is highly contagious, it will be able to harm the great amount of people, like the agents of traditional infectious diseases (anthrax, cholera, viral hemorrhagic fevers etc.). It also makes these agents accessible to various criminal and terrorist groups [1- 4].

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONSBACTERIA VIRUSES TOXINES

ANTHRAX

PLAGUE

TULAREMIA

CHOLERA

GLANDERS

BRUCELLOSIS

SMALLPOX

VIRAL HEMOR-RAHAGIC FEVERS

EQUINE ENCEP-HALITIS

RICIN BOTULISM

STAPHY-LOCCUS ENTERO-TOXIN B

MYCOTO -XINIS

Anthrax as a Biological Weapon-Adobe PDF version (JAMA, May 12, 1999)Smallpox as a Biological Weapon-Adobe PDF version (JAMA, June 9, 1999)Plague as a Biological Weapon-Adobe PDF version (JAMA, May 3, 2000)Botulinum Toxin as a Biological Weapon-Adobe PDF version (JAMA, February 28, 2001)Tularemia as a Biological Weapon-Adobe PDF version(JAMA, June 6, 2001)www.slu.edu/colleges/sph/bioterrorism/key_ref.htm

Vaccine Antitoxin R&D

TherapeuticsAntibiotics Germicides Other agents

Prevention of infectious diseases

Preverntion from micro-bial invasions

Increasing of host’s ability to resist infections

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS

HostParasite

Environment

Public health measures

Water treatment, air filtration, pro- per waste disposal

2

Hundreds Food contamination or poisoning

Suspending in a wet or dry formulation

Thousands

Main Scenarios of Biological Attacks

Likely

Low Probability

CASUALTIES

1

1 Utilization of foodborne and water- borne pathogens or toxic

chemicalsMain reasons increasing the probability of this scenario

Increasing the num-ber of persons with a modicum of training in microbiology

Unprotected and unmoni-tored food displays

The reasons of low probability of this scenario are that is technically difficult

2 Airborne attacks

to formul-ate patho-gens and toxins for airborne dispersal

to opera- te disper- sal me- chanisms success-fully

to ensure pro-per meteoro-logical condi-tions for effe-ctive aerosol dispersal.

When pathogens loose their virulence?

Spraying

Environmental stress

ClumpingStorage

Transportantion

Terrorism and Byotechnologies

PROTEIN ENGINEERINGAlteration of toxin’s chemical strructures Toxin molecule stabilization.

DNA TECHNOLOGIESCombine certain features of different viru-ses, including their recovering from corps. Sitederected mutagenesis for more difficult identification by immune system.

Main Defencive Difficulties

Luck of fundamental information about infectivity, pathogenesis, hostparasite relationships.

Imposibility to modify phenomena controlled by multiple genes.

The problem of pleomorphic effects.

The analysis of the process of biolo-gical weapons spreading came [5] to the conclusion about possible appli-cations of advanced biotechnologies for terrorist or criminal purposes in the next five years. This analysis has been done in 1999 [6]. However, as always...

«A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on».

Sir Winston Churchill

One of numerous lessons of September 11 was the demonstration of problem that previously was not properly addresses and interpreted.

It is the problem of psychological consequences of bioterrorist attacks [7].

Despite the fact that the great part of spreading powder was not lethal or contagious, in itself its receiving be-came a strong stressor, that influenced intensive psychological pressure in the population. As a result of this pressure, the hysteria in media space and in the general public has arise. However...

«Panics in some cases, have their uses; they produce as much good as hurt. Their duration is always short; the mind soon grows through them, and acquires a firmer habit than before».

Thomas Paine, 1776

So, it has been understood that combined utilization of modern telecommunication technologies and biological weapon leads to a strong multiple effect, that can cause essential damage not only to the health of population, but also to the economical power of the country.

In the past we could depend on possibilities of the intelligence to find the production of great amount of biological weapons.

However, the events after September 11 connected with anthrax attack, have demonstrated that even not large volume of biological agents may be useful for bioterrorist aims of producing chaos.

So, we are not now sure that production of so small amount of biological weapon will be noticed. It is clear, that whole system of antiterrorist defense requires the essential revision and newer systems are needed, systems that are better adapted to the modern trend of bioterrorism.

It is neccasary to create the Global System of Epidemiological Defense that covers all space of our Planet.