The Influence of Solar Variability on the Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics

The Influence of Solar Variability on the Atmosphere

and Ocean Dynamics

Speaker： Pei-Yu Chueh Adviser： Yu-Heng Tseng

Date： 2010/10/12

Outline

• Introduction• Motivation• Objectives• Model Description• Preliminary result• Future work

Observation-Solar variability

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100

50

100

150

200

250

TIME(years)

Sunspot numbers for the latest five cycles

MonthlyMonthly Smoothed

1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

1363.5

1364

1364.5

1365

1365.5

1366

1366.5

1367

Year

W/m

2

Reconstructed Solar Irradiance 400 Years (Lean,2001)

0.24%

11yrCYCLE11yrCYCLE+BKGRND

The amplitude of the solar cycle is relatively small, about 0.2 Wm−2 globally averaged (Lean 2005), and the observed global SST response of about 0.1°C would require more than 0.5 Wm−2 (White 1998), there has always been a question regarding how this small solar signal could be amplified to produce a measurable response.

Observation-Solar signals

[van Loon et al., 2000]

bathythermograph

[White et al., 1997]

Atmosphere Ocean

Review-The influence of solar forcing

[Lean, 1997]

• solar irradiance changes between solar max and min

• solar induced percentage ozone changes between solar max and min

[Soukharev and Hood, 2006]

→ more ozone

5-8%

Solar maximum → more UV radiation


ERA40 (1979-2001)

+1.75K

+0.5K

[Crooks and Gray, 2005]


[Meehl, 2008]

6hPa 4hPa 3hPa

observed PCM CCSM3

-1℃ -0.5℃ -0.3℃

Review-The Walker cell and the QBO in solar peak years

• QBO (Quasi-Biennial oscillation) definition: according to the November mean Singapore wind at the 50 hPa level. If the ‐wind is westerly (W), the year is categorized as a W year.

[van Loon and Meehl, 2008; Kuroda and Yamazaki, 2010]

Review-Comparison with cold event (CE) in the Southern Oscillation

[van Loon and Meehl, 2008]

Solar peak years Cold events

Trades are stronger.

SLP

SST

Solar peak years Cold events

[van Loon and Meehl, 2008]

Vertical zonal wind

Review-Comparison with cold event (CE) in the Southern Oscillation

Review-Mechanism

Increased solar Increased ozone amount modified temperature and zonal windaltered wave propagation changed equator to pole energy transport and circulation enhanced tropical precipitation

[Haigh, 1996; Shindell et al., 1999; Balachandran et al., 1999]

The top-down stratospheric ozone mechanism

Review-Mechanism

• NCEP reanalysis : anomalous DHS warming driven by a downward global tropical latent-plus-sensible heat flux anomaly into the ocean.

• Solar irradiance→ UV→ O3 → stratosphere → troposphere warming → heating ocean

[White et al., 2003 , 2006].

Review-Mechanism

[Meehl et al., 2003; Van Loon et al., 2007]

The bottom-up coupled air-sea mechanism

Increased solar over cloud-free regions of the subtropics translates into greater evaporation, and moisture convergence and precipitation in the ITCZ and SPCZ (and south Asian monsoon), stronger trades, and cooler SSTs in eastern equatorial Pacific.

Could the two mechanisms add together to boost the climate response to solar forcing?

Observed

Bottom-up only

Top-down only

Both bottom-up and top-down

[Meehl et al., 2009; Rind et al., 2008]

Mechanism-Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle

Mesosphere

Stratopause

Stratosphere

Tropopause

Troposphere

UV radiation

Direct influence on temperature Change of meridional

temperature gradient

Circulation changes(wind, waves, meridional

BD circulation)

Influence on ozone

SAO

QBO

Indirect influence,Difficult to measure

Change ofHadley cell

Change ofWalker circulation

[Matthes, 2005]

Greater evaporation and moisture convergence

(stronger trades)

Increased energy input at surface in cloud free area

Motivation

1. Is the quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO) near 11-year period in global patterns of SST and SLP internal or external?

2. What are the influences of solar forcing on the atmosphere and ocean? Also, how these small variations affect our climate system? What ‘s the importance of solar forcing?

Objectives

1. Use model output data to see if the quasi decadal signal is external or internal.

2. To investigate the role of 11-year solar forcing and the mechanisms.

3. Christoforou and Hameed (1997) have mentioned that the Aleutian low moved westward and the Pacific subtropical high moved northward during solar maxima for the period 1900–94. To see if there is any connection between solar and some oscillation patterns.

Model description

1. COSMOS = Community Earth system modeling system

– ao– asob

2. CCSM = Community Climate System Model– B1850– B1850CN

MPIOM

HAMOCC

JSBACH

ECHAM5

OASIS3

Surface condition

Fluxes

Carbon cycle

<COSMOS –ao/asob>

T31L19

GR30L40

<CCSM – B1850/B1850CN>

CPL

CLM

CAM

POP2

CICE

CCSM4 components : all active components, pre-industrial, with CN (Carbon Nitrogen) in CLM

Community Atmosphere Model version 3.5 (CAM) featuring finite volume dynamical core

Community Land Model version 3.0 (CLM3)

Parallel Ocean Program version 2.0 (POP)

Los Alamos Sea Ice Model version 4.0 (CICE)

Coupler version 7.0

<CCSM – B1850CN>

Topography: Partial bottom cell topography is used in the ocean. CO2 forcing: 1990s present day forcing.

model resolution levelAtm CAM/CLM 1152x768 26ocean POP/CICE 3600x2400 42 tripole grid (2 North Poles

located on land in Siberia and Alaska)

Grid:

Result- Solar Irradiance set

1700 1720 1740 1760 1780 18001366.5

1367

1367.5

1368

TIME(years)

W/m2

COSMOS solar irradiance set COSMOS Mean Solar insolation (W/m2) during 1700~1799yr

latit

ude

month1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

<COSMOS - ao> Top temperature

100 101-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)

COSMOS 1000~1799yr (ao) 10hPa temp

with solar forcingwithout solar forcing

100 101-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)



100 101-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)



<COSMOS - asob > Top temperature

100

101-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)

COSMOS 1500~1799yr (asob) 10hPa temp


100

101-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)



100

101-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)



<CCSM – B1850> Top temperature

100 101-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)

CCSM 200~999yr (B1850) level 1


100 101-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)



100 101-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)



<CCSM – B1850CN> Top temperature

100 101-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)

CCSM 700~999yr (B1850CN) level 1


100 101-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)



100 101-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)



SST

100 101-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)

COSMOS 1000~1799yr (ao) SST


100 101-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

10Lo

g 10P

SD

(dB

)

Period (year)

COSMOS 1000~1799yr (asob) SST


Nino3.4 SSTa power spectrum

<COSMOS - ao>

Top↓

Bottom

-0.20

0.2100hPa

-0.20

0.250hPa

-0.20

0.210hPa

136613671368

TSI

-0.20

0.21000hPa

-0.20

0.2850hPa

-0.20

0.2700hPa

-0.20

0.2500hPa

-0.20

0.2300hPa

-0.20

0.2200hPa

<CCSM - B1850CN> Top→Bottom

Pacific Ocean SST mean & std

Meehl, 2008 comparisonCOSMOS sea surface temperature

150oE 180oW 150oW 120oW 90oW

20oS

0o

20oN

40oN

60oN

-0.6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Meehl, 2008 comparisonCOSMOS sea level pressure

150oE 180oW 150oW 120oW 90oW

18oS

0o

18oN

36oN

54oN

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

COSMOS net surface SW radiation

150oE 180oW 150oW 120oW 90oW

18oS

0o

18oN

36oN

54oN

-10

-5

0

5

10

Meehl, 2008 comparison

The increases of net solar radiation → greater energy input into the ocean surface → increase latent heat flux

COSMOS latent heat flux

150oE 180oW 150oW 120oW 90oW

18oS

0o

18oN

36oN

54oN

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Meehl, 2008 comparison

Increase latent heat flux → greater evaporation and low level moisture → strong trades

Summary

Future Work

• To investigate how the solar forcing modulate the circulation of different levels.

• To examine the relationship between solar forcing and CP ENSO.

Thank you!

Review

•Solar variability•Solar signals•The influence of solar forcing / the response of solar forcing

Observation•Atmosphere•Ocean

Model

•The coupled air-sea response mechanism to solar forcing. [Meehl et al., 2003; van Loon et al., 2007]

•The variations in stratospheric ozone in response to solar variability. [Haigh, 1996; Shindell et al., 1999; White, 2006]

Mechanism


[Courtesy of Bill Randel, 2005]

SSU/MSU4 (1979-2003)

+0.9K

Motivation (delete)1. The quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO) near 11-year period

was one of the principal signals observed in global patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) during the 20th century.

2. Observations have shown that the 11-year cycle of solar forcing may have some influences on climate system, in both the atmosphere and ocean.

3. However, the amplitude of solar cycle is relatively small, about 0.2 Wm-2. Therefore, we are interested in how these small variations affect our climate system.

4. If solar cycle is important, we could add this forcing in our models in the future to reproduce the observed signals more accurate.

NAO-North Atlantic Oscillation

[Bachmann, 2007]

Role of ozone in the solar cycle modulation of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Winter-mean NAO index (DJF)

[Kuroda, 2008]


• solar induced percentage ozone changes between solar max and min

[Haigh, 1994]

Annual Mean (%)

Solar maximum → more UV radiation→ more ozone


In the atmosphere• The Aleutian low moved westward and the Pacific subtropical

high moved northward during solar maxima for the period 1900–94.

– [Christoforou and Hameed 1997]• Variations in UV and solar-induced changes in ozone may have

an effect on radiative forcing but additionally may affect climate through a dynamical response to solar heating of the lower stratosphere.

– [Haigh 2002]• Solar did have impact on both the tropospheric and

stratospheric meridional circulations.– [Matthes et al. 2004, 2006]

Review-Model• Cubasch et al . (1997) suggested a possible solar contribution

to the mid-20th century warming and a solar contribution of 40% of the observed global warming over the last 30 years.

• Stott et al .(2002), suggests that the GCM simulations may underestimate solar influence by up to a factor of three. One potential factor is the spectral composition of the solar irradiance variations and the resultant modulation of stratospheric ozone (Haigh 1994).

• Models in general are unable to simulate the necessary stratospheric ozone response, as they produce maximum ozone change in the mid stratosphere, instead of in the upper and lower stratosphere as observed. – [e.g., Shindell et al., 1999; Tourpali et al., 2003; Egorova et al., 2004; Sekiyama

et al., 2006]

Review-Model• Haigh (1999) use a general-circulation model (GCM) to

investigate the impact of the 11-year solar-activity cycle on the climate of the lower atmosphere.

• Solar forcing is represented by changes in both incident irradiance and stratospheric ozone concentrations.

• The GCM results suggest that the precise response of the atmosphere depends on the magnitude and distribution of the ozone changes.

• As the latitude-height structure of solar-induced ozone changes over the 11-year cycle are not yet well established, the general circulation models are able to produce some of the observed patterns of response to solar activity but generally underestimate the magnitude. [Haigh 2002]

Review-Model• Lee(2009) use the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)

Model to investigate tropical circulation.– The model includes fully interactive atmospheric chemistry. – The model experiments conditions: a doubly amplified solar forcing

and the present-day and preindustrial greenhouse gases and aerosol conditions, with the mixed layer or fully coupled dynamic ocean model.

• With present-day greenhouse gas and aerosol conditions, the ascending branch of the Hadley cell is enhanced near the equator, and the ITCZ is shifted northward in response to solar forcing during the boreal winter.

• Enhancement of the meridionally averaged vertical velocity over the western Pacific indicates strengthening of the Walker circulation in response to solar forcing in both solstice seasons.


• Small-amplitude variations in solar radiation that occur during the approximately 11-yr solar cycle [the decadal solar oscillation (DSO)] may produce significant responses in the troposphere and ocean. Specifically for the Indo-Pacific region.– [Haigh 1996, 2001, 2003; Lean and Rind 2001; Rind 2002; Lean et al. 2005; van

Loon and Labitzke 1998; van Loon and Shea 1999, 2000; Gleisner and Thejll 2003; van Loon et al. 2004; Crooks and Gray 2005; Wang et al. 2005; Bhattacharyya and Narasimha 2005; Lim et al. 2006; White et al. 1997, 1998; Bond et al. 2001; Weng 2005]


In the ocean• There is a cold event–like pattern during decadal periods of

high solar forcing. – [Mann et al. 2005]

• The decadal solar oscillation at its peaks strengthens the major convergence zones in the tropical Pacific during northern winter.

– [van Loon et al. 2007] • Precipitation changes have also been reported, in particular

increased precipitation in July and August in the tropical western Pacific, and the various monsoon regions: South Asian, west African, and North America.

– [Kodera, 2004; van Loon et al., 2004, 2007; Bhattacharya and Narasimha, 2005; Kodera and Shibata, 2006]

<COSMOS - asob>

-0.20

0.21000hPa

-0.20

0.2925hPa

-0.20

0.2850hPa

-0.20

0.2775hPa

-0.20

0.2700hPa

-0.20

0.2600hPa

<COSMOS - asob>

-0.20

0.2500hPa

-0.20

0.2400hPa

-0.20

0.2300hPa

-0.20

0.2250hPa

-0.20

0.2200hPa

-0.20

0.2150hPa

<COSMOS - asob>

-0.20

0.2100hPa

-0.20

0.270hPa

-0.20

0.250hPa

-0.20

0.230hPa

-0.20

0.210hPa

Documents

The Influence of Solar Variability on the Atmosphere and Ocean Dynamics