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The influence of
foreign labour migration
on the russian labour market
Svetlana Sigova, Doctor of Economics, Chief Researcher Natalia Parikova, Master in Economics, Junior Researcher
Petrozavodsk State University
23 October 2012
Institute of Migration, Turku
Agenda
Short revue of migration flows in Russia Regions “attractiveness” for foreign labour
migrants A quantitative assessment of foreign labour
migration on the Russian's economy The fundamental logic scheme of foreign labour
migrants calculation in terms of economic development of all regions
Conclusion
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I. Introduction
The crucial
issue for Russia
Provision of competent employees
Ageing population
Foreign labour migration (FLM)
Positive impact Negative impact
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Goals
Quantitative assessment FLM
impact on the regional economy
and labour market;
Foreign migrants forecast for the
Russian economy.
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Definition
Foreign labour migration
Employees moving to find
work
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Bridging the gap between the D and S on the labour market
Dynamics of the foreign migrants number in
Russia and Russian workers going abroad,
2000-2010
arrived
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left
Dynamics of foreign labor migration in the
context of 7 federal districts, 2007-2010 гг.
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200th
ou
san
d p
eo
ple
2007
2008
2009
2010
5 Russian regions with the highest number
of foreign migrant workers, 2010
№ Region of the Russian
Federation
Number of foreign workers,
people
The share of foreign workers in the total number of foreign workers Russia
Russian Federation 1 640 801 100 % including: 1 Moscow 345 142 21,0 % 2 Moscow region 134 855 8,2 % 3 St. Petersburg 120 875 7,4 % 4 Sverdlovsk region 82 969 5,1 % 5 Irkutsk region 62 853 3,8 %
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Map of Russian regions, in terms of the intensity of
the foreign labour migration flows, 2010
5% or more
less than 1%
The share of foreign workers in the average number of workers in the region
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Possible socio-economic implications of FLM for
Russian regions
Positive impacts
Negative impacts
1. The growth of the labor force in the economy, output, total income and aggregate demand;
1. Deteriorating situation in the labor market, increased competition for jobs, decreased wages of local workers, the marginalization of the less skilled workers;
2. Elimination of structural imbalances in the labor market due to filling of vacancies, which local population avoids, meeting the needs of the market in the labor force necessary qualifications
2. Blocking the introduction of labor-saving technologies in the use of cheaper labor;
3. Production costs reduction associated with the lower price of labor;
3. Dependence on foreign labor for certain types of work;
4. Mitigation of an ageing population problem; 4. Growth of social tension, ethnic conflicts; 5. Savings on the cost of education and training (in the case of attracting skilled workers);
5. Illegal immigration and the associated impacts;
6. Savings in pensions and other social benefits (in the case of temporary migration);
6. The additional conditions for the development of the "shadow economy" and corruption;
7. Stimulation of vertical mobility of local workers; 7. Budget spending on the social, linguistic, educational adaptation programs for migrants;
8. Creating conditions for attracting foreign investment and new technologies.
8. The outflow of funds received by migrants in the form of income.
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The current situation is characterized by:
Which regions are attractive for FLM? Which regions are migrants going to? PetrSU
FLM flows increase Positive and negative impact on the socio-economic life
Regions receive migrants, so there is a
need for them Deferent intensity of FLM in regions
President: FLM is an additional source for labour
market FLM forecast
II. Pull-factors system of Russian regions
12
Migration attractiveness of Russian regions
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1) Set of 39 relative ratios was
considered
2) 20 indicators with the most statistically
significance
Methods: multicollinearity
analysis, a matrix of pair correlation
coefficients, coefficients of determination derived from
multiple regression
The system of pull-factors of regions of
The Russian Federation
13 PetrSU
1
Demographic
development
indicators
Х1 The urban population in the total population (%) Х2 The ratio of men and women (1,000 men have women)
Х3 The share of working age population in the total population (%)
Х7 The population density (people per 1 km2) 2 Economic
development
indicators
Х9 The gross regional product per capita (rub.) Х10 Depreciation of fixed assets (%) Х12 Investments in fixed capital per capita (rub.) Х14 The employment rate (%)
3 Social strain
indicators Х17 The unemployment rate (%)
Х20 The share of employment in the informal sector in total employment (%)
4 Standard of
living
indicators
Х26 The ratio of living cost to the average income per capita (%)
Х27 The ratio of living cost to the average monthly salary (%)
Х28 Average prices in the primary market (RUB per 1 m2 of the total area) Х30 The cost of a fixed basket of goods and services (rub.)
5 Regional
infrastructure
development
indicators
Х32 The number of hospital beds per 10 000 population (units) Х33 Number of doctors per 10 000 population (persons)
Х34 Number of nurses per 10 000 population (persons)
Х36 Putting into operation housing (units per 1,000 people of population) Х37 Border region (1 or 0)
Х39 The density of public roads with hard surface (km of road per 1,000 km2)
Regions “attractiveness” typology based on
pull-factors system
Cluster "Attractive“ (13)
Moscow, the Republic of Komi, Nenets Autonomous District, Murmansk, St. Petersburg, Tyumen Region, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area - Yugra and Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Kamchatka, Magadan, Sakhalin region, Chukotka
Cluster "Medium" (61)
Belgorod, Bryansk, Vladimir region, Voronezh region, Ivanovo Oblast, Kaluga, Kostroma, Kursk, Lipetsk region, Moscow, Orel, Ryazan region, Smolensk region, Tambov Region, Tver, Tula Region, Yaroslavl region , Republic of Karelia, Arkhangelsk, Vologda, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, Novgorod Oblast, Pskov Oblast, the Republic of Adygea, Republic of North Ossetia - Alania, Krasnodar, Stavropol, Astrakhan, Volgograd and Rostov Regions, the Republic of Bashkortostan, Mari El, Mordovia, Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Chuvashia, Perm, Kirov region Nizhny Novgorod region, Orenburg, Penza Region, Samara, Saratov Region, Ulyanovsk Region, Sverdlovsk Region, Chelyabinsk Region, Republic of Buryatia, Khakassia Republic , Altai Territory, Trans-Baikal Territory, Krasnoyarsk Territory, Irkutsk, Kemerovo, Novosibirsk Region, Omsk, Tomsk Oblast, Primorsky Krai, Khabarovsk Krai, Amur Oblast, Jewish Autonomous Region
Cluster "Unattractive" (9)
Republic of Dagestan, Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Kalmykia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Chechnya, Kurgan region, Altai Republic, the Republic of Tyva
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Application of regions “attractiveness”
typology based on pull-factors system
…in
acc
orda
nce
with
regi
onal
feat
ures
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The factors affecting the direction and intensity of FLM
Evaluation of the potential migration
attractiveness
Explication of the migration process
migration forecasting
decisions making
recommendations for FLM regulation
III. A quantitative assessment of the FLM impact
on the region's economy and its labor force
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A system of assessment indicators
indicators of needs satisfaction in FLM /
level of education
a labor market tension, taking into account
FLM
Structure indicators of FLM / economic activity and the
level of professional education.
New
indicator
Indicators of needs satisfaction
in the foreign labor force
1. The full satisfaction of demand for labor in regions by graduates
Meeting needs by graduates - 27 regions out of 83 (33%) Surplus of russian employees
Migrants surplus Less than 30% 30 - 60% More than
60%
Sa
tisf
act
ion
of
dem
an
d f
or
lab
or
in
reg
ion
s b
y g
rad
uate
s
till
130%
6 regions Republic of North Ossetia-Alania Republic of Chuvashia, Udmurtia, Ulyanovsk region, Ivanovo region, Omsk region
7 regions Rostov Region, Republic of Mordovia, Voronezh Region, Tambov region, Tomsk region, Tatarstan, Kostroma
2 regions St. Petersburg, Irkutsk Region
Mo
re t
ha
n
13
0%
5 regions Republic of Dagestan, Ingushetia, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Republic of Khakassia
5 regions Tyva, Oryol Region, Saratov Region, the Republic of Kalmykia, Republic of Adygea
2 regions Republic of Buryatia, the Altai Republic
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2. Regions with a deficit of Russian workers and graduates
Meeting needs by migrants- 50 regions out of 83 (60 %) Surplus of migrants
Partial satisfaction of
demand for labour in regions
by migrants
Full satisfaction of demand for labour in regions by migrants
till 130% More than 130%
till
70%
4 regions Tyumen Oblast, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Murmansk Oblast, Komi Republic
2 regions Novgorod region, the Leningrad Region
7 regions Magadan Region, Moscow Region, Chukotka, Kaluga region, Khanty-Mansiysk, Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District, Sakhalin Region
70 -
100%
1 regions Kirov region
14 regions Mari El Republic, Kurgan Region, Altai Krai, Nizhni Novgorod Region, Kursk region, Stavropol region, Bryansk region, Orenburg region, Kemerovo Oblast, Republic of Karelia, Vologda, Yaroslavl, Penza, Samara Region
26 regions Belgorod, Lipetsk region, the Republic of Bashkortostan, Perm, Pskov Region, Chelyabinsk Region, Volgograd Region, Smolensk region, Vladimir Region, Krasnoyarsk, Krasnodar, Tver region, Novosibirsk Region, Kaliningrad Region, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai , Sverdlovsk region, Astrakhan Oblast, Tula Oblast, Kamchatka, Transbaikalia territory, the Amur region, Moscow, Primorsky region, Ryazan Oblast, Jewish Autonomous
Indicators of needs satisfaction in the foreign labor force
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Indicators of needs satisfaction in the foreign labor
force according to level of education, 2015
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133,0
77,763,7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
HVE SVE EVE
%
thou
sand
peo
ple
.
additional demandgraduates of vocational educationmigrantsfilling gap by graduates
Structure indicators of foreign labor migrants according to level of professional education
Distribution of Russian regions according to migrants share with basic vocational education in the total number of foreign workers
10 regions 38 regions
12 regions
23 regions
less than 30% more 70%
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Structure indicators of the of foreign labor migrants according to economic activities
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2,0 3,11,4 1,0
1,5
33,5
1,8
0510152025303540
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0
agric
ultu
re ..
.
man
ufac
turin
g
cons
truct
ion
who
lesa
le a
nd re
tail
...
Tran
spor
t and
com
mun
icat
ion
real
est
ate
trans
actio
ns ..
.
Prov
isio
n of
oth
er s
ervi
ces
times
thou
sand
peo
ple
2006 2010 growth rate
- the number of foreign migrants
*Stk
Where:
- Modified coefficient of a labor market tension with FLM
U - The number of the unemployed
J
Lm
- vacancies (demand for labour force)
Indicators of a labor market tension, taking into account the foreign labor migration
(a new indicator)
St U Lmk
J
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The regions of Russia, where coefficient of a labor market
tension with FLM changes in comparison the traditional tension coefficient is more than 20%, 2010
Indicators of a labour market tension, taking into account the foreign labour
migration (a new indicator)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
г. М
оскв
а
Чуко
тски
й АО
Ямал
о-Н
енец
кий
АО
Респ
. Алт
ай
г. Са
нкт-
Пер
ербу
рг
Нен
ецки
й АО
Мос
ковс
кая
обл.
Хант
ы-М
анси
йски
й АО
Ряза
нска
я об
л.
Саха
линс
кая
обл.
Маг
адан
ская
обл
.
Евре
йска
я АО
Амур
ская
обл
.
Калу
жск
ая о
бл.
Туль
ская
обл
.
Кам
чатс
кий
край
Лен
ингр
адск
ая о
бл.
Ирк
утск
ая о
бл.
Хаба
ровс
кий
край
Свер
длов
ская
обл
.
Респ
. Сах
а (Я
кути
я)
Астр
ахан
ская
обл
.
При
мор
ский
кра
й
Заба
йкал
ьски
й кр
ай
Влад
имир
ская
обл
.
Нов
осиб
ирск
ая о
бл.
Твер
ская
обл
.
Лип
ецка
я об
л.
Крас
нояр
ский
кра
й
Крас
нода
рски
й кр
ай
Кали
нинг
радс
кая
обл.
Смол
енск
ая о
бл.
Нов
горо
дска
я об
л.
%
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Application of assessment indicators system
It allows to define…
Possibility of qualitative and quantitative assessment of arriving foreign migrants
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areas of RF affected by migrants’pressure
qualitative characteristics of arriving migrants / real needs
of the Russian economy
social tension increase caused by migration
III. Forecasting migration flows
in Russian economy
Crucial forecasting principles Migration forecast is defined by: - labour shortages on Russian market, - the presence of internal sources to cover the deficit - pace of economic diversification, new technologies
introduction - documents of strategic development in Russia and
its regions
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Forecasting migration flows
in Russian economy
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1 stage Total demand of the russian economy for skilled workers
2 stage The calculation of how much
demand can be met by domestic sources
3 stage If there is a deficit of Russian
employees, determine the need for migrants
Forecasting migration flows
in Russian economy
tLm
- Russian employees
- GDP
-model productivity function.
- foreign migrants
tX
tL - the required number of employees
tF
t t tX F L
t t tL Lr Lm
tLr
I. Basis - a multiplicative production function
II. Forecasting of Modified coefficient of a labor market tension based on Beveridge curve (the share of vacancies to the unemployment rate)
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Forecasting migration flows
in Russian economy
Required number of foreign workers according to productivity dynamics
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
тыс.
чел
.
оптимистический сценарий средний сценарий пессимистический сценарий
угрожающий сценарий фактические данные (1998-2010 гг.)
ItLm
IItLm
IIItLm
IVtLm
0,0643 (0,587 0,030 ln )397,659
II tt t tt
XLm N
e
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The fundamental logic scheme of foreign labor migrants
calculation in terms of economic development all regions
1. Total demand of the regional economy for skilled workers
2. The additional demand of the regional economy for skilled workers per year
7.1. 1) Measures to reduce foreign labor
migrants. 2) social policy measures to reduce the workforce in the region
3. Internal and external sources to meet the labour market needs in terms of regional economy
3.1. Internal and external sources (graduates of vocational education, the unemployed and etc.)
Surplus 4. Deficit / surplus of domestic sources on the regional labor
market
3.2. External sources (foreign migrants)
5. Demand of the regional economy for foreign migrants
6. Regions “attractiveness” for foreign migrants
7.2. Measures intended to toughen foreign migrants selection according to
vocational qualification structure
7.3. Measures to increase the "attractiveness" of the region for the internal and external labour migrants
(grants, subsidies, preferences)
"Unattractive" "Attractive“ "Medium"
Deficit
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Conclusion
1. Foreign labour migration is a complicated socio-economic phenomenon, which has a dual effect on the labor market in Russia:
- filling the gap in the labor force caused by the demographic crisis in 54 regions Russia;
- increase in tension on the labour market because of migrants (in 28 regions, more than 30%).
2. Regions vary in scale and intensity of foreign labor migration due to socio-economic parameters differences.
3. Foreign labor migrants can be seen as an effective tool for regulating the labour market.
The proposed fundamental logic scheme of foreign labor migrants calculation will enable both economic development and reduction of the negative effects of foreign labor migration.
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Applying migration forecast methodology
The state contracts for the Department of labour and employment in Moscow. 1. Forecast of labour market demand for
personnel with vocational education (2011) 2. Methodology development and forecast
of workforce balance in Moscow (2012)
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Looking forward to cooperating!
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Contacts
Petrozavodsk State University Budget monitoring center Phone: (8142), 71-32-29; 78-33-02 Email: [email protected] [email protected] Address: Petrozavodsk, Lenin str. 31 Website: http://openbudgetrf.ru
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