The implications of greening industries on education

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B y T e c h n o p o l i s 2 0 1 6

The implications of greening industries on education systems and training

policies in developing and advanced economies

This paper was commissioned by the Global Education Monitoring Report as background information to assist in drafting the 2016 report. It has not been edited by the team. The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the Global Education Monitoring Report or to UNESCO. The papers can be cited with the following reference: “Paper commissioned for the Global Education Monitoring Report 2016, Education for people and planet: Creating sustainable futures for all”. For further information, please contact [email protected].

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Background paper prepared for the 2016 Global Education Monitoring Report

Education for people and planet: Creating sustainable futures for all

mailto:[email protected]

The implications of greening industries on education systems and training policies in developing and advanced economies i

Table of Contents

1. Introduction 1

2. Overview of green industries and greening traditional industries in developed and developing countries: macro-trends 3

2.1 The growth of green industries 3

2.2 Greening of traditional industries 7

3. The supply and demand for new and enhanced occupational skills as a result of green growth 11

3.1 The impact of green growth on labor markets: the net job creation paradigm 11

3.2 More green jobs means more demand for green skills 13

4. The educational policy implications of supporting the transition to green growth: key priorities and successful examples 17

5. Conclusions 24

Appendix A References 25

Appendix B NACE codes for green industries (Level 4 NACE description) 29

Appendix C Green job creation estimates for South Africa 31

Appendix D The negative employment and skills effects of green restructuring for a selected group of industries (ILO, 24) 32

Appendix E The positive employment and skills effects of green restructuring for a selected group of industries (ILO, 24) 32

The implications of greening industries on education systems and training policies in developing and advanced economies 1

1 Introduction1

The last two decades have witnessed the rise of a “green growth policy paradigm” aimed at addressing the world’s most pressing environmental challenges, while fostering economic growth founded on the principles of sustainability and inclusiveness. The emergence of this paradigm is illustrated by the development of an array of national and international ‘green growth strategies’2, as well as by the increasing focus on green growth adopted within the framework of international development cooperation efforts3.

The 2008 financial and economic crisis acted as a green growth catalyzer, as governments were quick to adopt ‘green’ stimulus and recovery packages with the dual aim of addressing environmental issues and kick-starting green economic and employment growth4. This policy trend has trickled down from advanced economies to developing ones. Green growth is now widely recognized as a model for growth implying an alignment between economic development, environmental protection and social improvement objectives. Green growth policies generally aim to harness the benefits of continued economic development while preventing further damage to natural resources, and adapting to changing climate conditions. The underpinning principle behind this model is thus that the transition to cleaner and more sustainable production and consumption patterns may unleash a considerable wave of economic and employment growth.

However, the transition greener growth models will require undertaking significant structural adjustments – some of which can be painful and costly - , as well as investing in long-term and high risk development agendas and projects. For on the road to transition lie not only a great number of opportunities for growth and development, but also significant pitfalls, barriers and risks. For example, economies that are heavily dependent on coal-intensive industries, which tend to be developing countries, stand to loose a lot from the move to greener economic models and policies.

Education represents one of the best means to ensure a maximum number of winners and a limited number of losers come out of the transition to green growth. Ensuring labor forces are equipped with the necessary skills to respond to the needs of a greener economy will not only contribute to making the project of green utopia a more tangible reality, but will also limit the potential negative spillovers on society this transition might imply (i.e. unemployment). As such, understanding the nature of the relationship between education, skills development and upgrading and the green economic boom are key to any policy practitioner and policy-maker.

‘Green growth’ and its implications on labor markets – including the creation of green jobs, the need for green and greener skills – has been the object of numerous research efforts on behalf of

1 By Carlos Hinojosa, Senior Consultant and Annemieke Pickles, Senior Consultant 2 See for example the Cambodian National Green Growth Roadmap, the Chilean and Vietnamses National Green Growth

Strategies, or the OECD’s Green Growth Strategy (http://www.enterprise-development.org/page/greengrowth) 3 See for example the work conducted by the Donor Committee on Enterprise Devleopment on Green Growth. 4 See HSBC global research, 2009.

http://www.enterprise-development.org/page/greengrowth

2 The implications of greening industries on education systems and training policies in developing and advanced economies

local, national and multinational organizations5 as well as the private sector. Part of this work also looks at the implications on educational systems of this trend notably on the practical skill development end offered through vocational education and training. This paper is aimed at providing an overview of the existing body of literature analyzing the relationship between green growth, skills and educational policy. Specifically, it intends to clearly explain the concepts surrounding the green growth and skills buzz, point out to specificities in relation to an advanced and developing country context, and establish conclusions on what this actually implies for effective educational policy-making. When relevant, specific country or sector-specific examples are provided to illustrate the thoughts and arguments presented.

5 See work conducted by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the International Labour Organisation (ILO), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), etc.


2 Overview of green industries and greening traditional industries in developed and developing countries: macro-trends

The shift to a green economy6 should be understood as a process of change aimed at a) reducing and optimizing the use of resources required to make an economy and society function and b) limiting the harmful impact of human and economic activities on the environment. This shift is generally regarded as being underpinned by two parallel phenomena (UNIDO, 2011): the growth of green industries (or eco-industries, cf. ) and the greening of traditional industries (cf. section 2.2).

Both the former and the latter may be driven by a number of factors including policy reform and regulation, environmental and economic incentives, the emergence of innovative resource governance schemes, as well as sheer economic opportunity. In addition, ‘eco-innovation’ is a common driver of radical or step-changing changes towards greener models of growth and economic activity. The following sections present an overview of these key concepts along with the main current trends in a developing and advanced-economy context.

2.1 The growth of green industries

Green industries (cf. ) have undergone impressive growth at the global scale over the last three decades. According to a recent InfoDev report (2014), green industries have evolved from “a niche 1970s environmental aspiration into a competitive force motivating many of the world’s most progressive business planners and boardroom strategists”. Several drivers are behind the growth sector including changing consumer habits; new environmental regulation introduced by governmental authorities; direct impacts of climate change on the environment (natural and built); resource scarcity; but most importantly, the emergence of a considerable market at the global scale. As low-carbon and resource-efficient technologies and products and services undergo increasing consumer demand, so does the interest of investors and entrepreneurs shift towards the industry.

6 A range of organizations has adopted their own definitions of the term ‘green economy’. The United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) for example, defines a green economy as one that results in “improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risk and ecological scarcities” (UNEP). Generally speaking, a ‘green economy’ is a low-carbon, resource efficient and socially inclusive economy.


Despite the lack of clear–cut definition the sub-sectors falling under the ‘green industry’ umbrella, there has been widespread work conducted to measure the size of the industry and its potential for growth. For example, the U.K. Department for Energy and Climate Change Study (DECC, 2013) valued the global clean technology market at approximately $5.5 trillion in 2012.

Green employment figures also illustrate the strength and importance of the sector7. For instance, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA, 2014) estimates that renewable energy jobs across the globe reached 6.5 million in 2013. In decreasing order, the largest employers were China, Brazil, the United States, India, Germany, Spain and Bangladesh. The following table (cf. Table 1) provides figures on green industry employment for a sample of advanced and developing economies, illustrating the importance of this particular economic sector in light of national workforce size.

Table 1 Employment in green industries compared to traditional industrial sectors in the US, UK, Brazil and Bangladesh

Country Clean technology employment figures (current)

United States 2.5 million private sector and 886,000 public sector jobs (2.6% of the workforce)

Germany 2 million (5% of total workforce)

Brazil 1.4 million (3.6% of total workforce)

Bangladesh 3.5 million core environment-related jobs (only 800 000 ‘green-jobs’ when considering the ‘decent work’ criterion)

This represents 7% and 2% of the total workforce respectively

7 Data on green employment in developing economies is much more scarce.

Box 1 What economic sectors does the term ‘green industries’ cover?

There have been numerous discussions around what can be labeled as green industry or not. The OECD/Eurostat (1999) defines eco-industries as “activities which produce goods and services to measure, prevent, limit, minimize or correct environmental damage to water, air and soil, as well as problems related to waste, noise and eco-systems. This includes cleaner technologies, products and services that reduce environmental risk and minimize pollution and resource use”. In reality, the precise definition of the scope of a green industry depends on the specific country or regional context under consideration. Unlike traditional sectors which can be easily identified through one or a few digits in the NACE classification, green industries are a hybrid type in the sense that they cover various NACE subsectors often at the 4- or 5- digit level . An alternative approach is to adopt a more restricted focus on a set of core industries (or value chains) displaying a direct tie to the environment. These can broadly be categorized into to groups: pollution management (air pollution control, waste water treatment, waste management, soil and water remediation; noise en vibration control, environmental monitoring & instrumentation, environmental R&D, public/private environmental administration and management); and resource management (renewable energy; water supply, recycled materials; nature protection).


Source: (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (US) & European Employment Observatory (DE) cited in INFODEV, 2014); Cruz, 2010 (Brazil); GHK, 2010 (Bangladesh).

And while estimations on the size of the global green market may vary, there appears to be a consensus regarding its high potential for growth in oncoming decades, as most estimates predict higher growth rates for green industries than for the global economy average. Gor example a German government study (BMU & UBA, 2009) predicted that the global market for clean technologies would double by the mid-2020s. According to the previously cited U.K. DECC study (2013), the clean technology sector can be expected to grow at around 4.1 percent annually until 2015/2016, significantly faster than the global economy. The same study identifies alternative fuels, building technologies, wind power, alternative fuel vehicles, geothermal, and water supply and wastewater treatment as the top six subsectors in within the global green industry market.

Current renewable energy production forecasts also illustrate the extent to which this particular green sector may be expected to grow over the next three to four decades. According to the IEA’s 2014 Global Energy Outlook, “with rapid cost reductions and continued support, renewables account for almost half of the increase in total (global) electricity generation to 2040, while use of biofuels more than triples to 4.6 mb/d and the use of renewables for heat more than doubles”. The report also estimates that generation from renewables grows more than twice as much in non-OECD countries, led by China, India, Latin America and Africa.

However, the growth dynamics and structure of the green market vary on the basis of geographical and sectoral considerations. Currently, the green market and economic activities are strongly concentrated in advanced economies, and particularly Western Europe. According to estimates provided by Ecorys (2009), over one third of the eco-industry global market belongs to the EU. Europe appears to be particularly strong in pollution abatement, waste management and integrated chain management. Its waste recycling industry accounts for 50% of the global recycling market, with water supply accounting for 30% and renewable energy for 40% of the respective global market sectors. Germany has been the global leader in clean energy technology sales, in absolute terms, surpassing the US, Japan and China.

The US and Japan, Europe lead research and development in the area of clean biotech, in particular, bio-plastics as well as bio-fuel technologies. Similarly, the EU, the US and Japan are in the lead in the areas of hardware development and eco-design. This has enabled them to be in the forefront of the development of hybrid and electric cars, as well as in a number of other clean technologies (EC, 2011).

In spite of this, the gap in clean technology investment between advanced and developing economies appears to be shrinking. According to according to Forbury Investment Network (Nick, 2013), at the end of 2012 the clean technology investment gap between advanced and developing economies stood at 18% ($132 billion vs. $112 billion per year); down from 250% in 2007. The same report states that in 2012, clean technology investment rose by 19% percent in developing countries compared with an overall decline of 12 percent globally, suggesting that clean technology investment is shifting towards developing economies in the near term. Regional shifts from developed to emerging countries are illustrated for example by the increase in manufacturing employment in solar PV towards Asia, and corresponding decrease in the US and Europe (c.a. 30 point decrease in the share of global production between 2001 and 2012).


Brazil has also become a bioenergy juggernaut with close to 539,000 direct ethanol jobs and about 82,000 biodiesel jobs (IRENA, 2014).

According to Infodev (2014), clean technology sectors are likely to attract $6.4 trillion over the next decade ($1.6 trillion accessible to SMEs) in developing countries. Even when excluding China, India, Russia, and Middle Income Europe, these opportunities are still estimated to represent $4.1 trillion. Some of the strongest potential for growth in developing countries appears to lie in the wastewater, water and solid waste management; and low-carbon energy sectors. For example, the solar PV market opportunity in India is expected to potentially exceed $60 billion over the next decade.

The growth and interest in green industries in a developing country context can be explained by multiple factors: growing pressure to build energy supplies in light of fast growing demand, the existence of high resource prices (i.e. raw materials and energy) as well as the existence of adverse living and social conditions.

Establishing which sectors are of higher relevance for specific countries depends on the structure of the country economy, the growth dynamics of the sector, or the specific environmental challenges the country is facing. For example, energy efficiency and renewables will tend to be a higher priority for countries which are heavily reliant on energy imports, while it may be less of a priority for countries with energy surpluses. Other sectors might be considered as key due to the share of employment they host and may be capable of generating. For the purposes of this paper, a particular focus has been set on three specific sectors allowing to illustrate some of the main trends and practices identified and describe din the following sections: renewables, construction and agriculture. This choice has been principally made on the basis of the following criteria these sectors’ potential for job creation and their relative importance in total employment8; their

relevance for both advanced and developing economies and; their potential to contribute to CO2 emissions reductions and resource efficiency.

While the renewables sector is generally considered to be a green industry (cf. ), green construction and agriculture are more frequently described as traditional sectors undergoing significant changes as part of the transition to green growth. The importance of the ‘greening of traditional industries’ in the shift towards a green economy is described in the following section of the paper (cf. section 2.2).

8 For example, the global agriculture sector, including forestry and fisheries currently provides over 1 billion jobs globally and accounts for 3% of the global GDP (ILO and WDI cited in Herren, H et al. 2012). The construction sector generates 5 to 15 per cent of GDP at the national level, approximately 10 per cent of global GDP, and approximately 7 per cent of the world‘s workplaces (ILO, 2007a).

23Building Competitive Green Industries: The Climate and Clean Technology Opportunity for Developing Countries Chapter 2: Sizing Climate and Clean Technology Markets

The Regional Picture The regional opportunities are diverse and highly driven by both natural resource endowments and government policy priorities. While investment is large and growing throughout the developing world, China and Latin America stand out as leaders (see Figure 2.4).

Wastewater features in the top three opportunities for SMEs across the entire developing world, with the exception of China. Countries are investing heavily in wastewater infrastructure and services to provide basic services to their growing populations while ensuring a stable water supply to grow industries reliant on water use. A number of the renewable and nonrenewable technologies are also expected to present significant opportunities for SMEs as well and they are each discussed in turn with the top three opportunities for each region highlighted in Figure 2.5.

FIGURE 2.4.Clean technology market size by region, and the shares of SMEs and non-SME ($ trillion)

$0.0

$0.2

$0.4

$0.6

$0.8

$1.0

$1.2

$1.4

$1.6

Russia

and M

iddle

Income Euro

peIndia

North Afri

ca &

the Middle Eas

tAsia

Sub-Sah

aran

Africa

Latin Americ

aChina

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alue

(US$

trill

ion)

$1.56

$1.43

$0.91 $0.88 $0.87

$0.44

$0.24

SME Non-SME

Source: Authors’ analysis.

FIGURE 2.5. Top three regional opportunities for SMEs

WastewaterSmall Hydro

Water

WastewaterWater

Solar CSP

WastewaterSmall HydroGeothermal

WastewaterSmall Hydro

Waste

Onshore WindSolar PVElectric Bikes

Onshore WindSolar PV

Wastewater

WastewaterBioenergy

Water

Source: Authors’ analysis.


2.2 Greening of traditional industries

The second pillar of the transition to a Green economy is the greening of traditional industries. As opposed to the growth and emergence of green industries, the greening of industries implies ensuring that all industries, regardless of their sector, size or location, continuously improve their environmental performance. According to UNIDO (2011), this includes commitment to and actions aimed at reducing the environmental impacts of processes and products through using resources more efficiently, phasing out toxic substances, substituting fossil fuels with renewable energy sources, improving occupational health and safety, taking increased producer responsibility and reducing the overall risks.

Eco-innovation (cf. ) is key to greening industries as it enables non-green affiliated companies to adopt innovative practices, processes, goods or services. The degree of ‘innovativeness’ of eco-innovations is of course relative. However, for the purpose of this paper an eco-innovation is considered as such regardless of whether it’s new to the world, to the country/region, or to the specific company9 implementing it. In addition, it adopts a wide vision of ‘eco-innovation’ which encompasses not only innovative technologies, but also regulations and policies, services, organizational models, and processes.

Companies appear to be increasingly aware of the value of introducing eco-innovation into their way of thinking and operating. Some of these are not only keen on stepping up to the plate in relation to addressing the global sustainability challenge, but they also have become aware of the potential economic and business benefits commonly associated with the shift to greener practices and models. Here again, the global recession brought about by the 2009 crisis appears

9 Eco-innovations which are only new to the company are most frequently associated with the process of technological upgrading rather than eco-innovation itself. However, for the purpose of this paper, green technology upgrading is also considered to be an eco-innovation.

Box 2 A word on eco-innovation

A key driver of growth and competitiveness of green industries, as well as of greening industries (cf. Section 2.2) is eco-innovation. According to the European Eco-Innovation Observatory (2012), "eco-innovation is the introduction of any new or significantly improved product (good or service), process, organizational change or marketing solution that reduces the use of natural resources (including materials, energy, water and land) and decreases the release of harmful substances across the whole life-cycle." There is mounting evidence that the adoption of eco-innovative practices by companies represents a significant economic opportunity mostly because of its potential to reduce cost, capture new growth opportunities (i.e. entering new markets) and developing a positive corporate image in the eyes of consumers. As is the case for ‘mainstream innovation’, enhancing eco-innovation capacities across all sectors of the economy is conditioned by the existence of the right set of skills and capacities across all relevant sectors and stakeholders. For example, Science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) skills are crucial to generating, transferring and making use of knew knowledge leading to the adoption of eco-innovations, green skills will be necessary to design and operate eco-innovative public sector reform and green policies (i.e. public procurement), and green management and entrepreneurial skills are required to develop


to have woken a strong interest among companies to re-direct their strategies in a greener direction10. Companies are also aware of the risks linked to the decreasing levels of available resources available to conduct their activities, as well as of the pressures rising input prices puts on their traditional business models. In a recent survey of global corporate leaders conducted by the Carbon Trust (2015), 76% of executives see bottom line risks from direct impacts of climate change, and 84% see business opportunity in an environmentally sustainable future. Half believed they would have to fundamentally change their products, services, or business models if drivers for environmental sustainability become strong.

In addition to this, there is mounting evidence of the economic rationale behind the shift to greener and more resource-efficient production methods is clear. For instance, at the company level, BIS (2010) estimates annual savings associated with resource efficiency in the UK of €21,000 to €60,000 per company with payback periods between 0.06 and 3.45 years. Similarly, Schro ̈ter et al. (2011) estimate €48 billion worth of annual savings from material savings in the German manufacturing sector. At the global level, McKinsey (2011) estimate $3.7 trillion (€2.65 trillion) in savings by 2030 from the implementation of 130 resource productivity measures and adapted legislation (no subsidies or energy taxes and a $30 carbon price).

It is worth noting that despite the increasing evidence pointing to the gradual change of course of a number of economic activities, sectors and operators towards more sustainable paths; there are still strong incentives for economies and economic players to continue on the ‘business-as-usual’ path. For example, recent plunges in oil prices are surely going to decrease the interest in reducing reliance on this energy source; while the above-average prices and risk-levels generally linked to the use of environmental technologies still act as a disincentive to move away from ‘dirty’ incumbent technologies.

Greening industries has a lot to do with changing the way businesses organize themselves in order to create value while responding to increasing environmental pressures. Companies are increasingly embedding environmental sustainability across their operations, which in turn leads to re-structuring of value chains and new types of producer-consumer relationships. For example, certain companies have developed innovative business models based on leasing and providing services instead of products (i.e. Xerox), thereby deferring consumption of new assets. In addition, companies are interested in developing sustainable products and services in response to changing consumer demands, highlighting the importance integrating eco-design into existing production processes. Finally, greening industries also implies developing systemic approaches to production and consumption, shifting companies away from individual strategic planning, to more collective approaches on the basis of their position in the broader system of resource flows (i.e. circular economy). For example, Renault has adopted a number of circular economy principles across their business including remanufacturing, raw material stream optimization and access-over-ownership11.

The focal point of the greening of traditional industries is the development and implementation of green business models of new or existing companies. As such, the greening of industries is

10 See PWC sustainable growth survey cited in UNEP, 2012. 11 Renault leases batteries for electric cars to help retain the residual value of electric vehicles (to encourage higher

consumption) and make batteries fully traceable, ensuring a high collection rate for closed-loop reengineering or recycling.


intimately related to the notions of ‘green entrepreneurship and intrapreneurship’, as well as to ‘green management’ practices. “Green Business Model Innovation is when a business changes part(s) of its business model and thereby captures economic value as well as reduces the ecological footprint in a life-cycle perspective”. Companies might innovate by substituting to greener inputs, reusing or recycling resources, offering their product as a service function while continuing to have ownership of the products, or by developing greener products, services and processes. Other common practices associated to green business models are green supply chain management, cradle-to-cradle, take-back mechanism, functional sales, and industrial symbiosis.

Estimating the impacts on employment of the ‘greening of traditional industries’ is much more complex than for the growth of green industries (cf. Error! Bookmark not defined.), due to the

cross-cutting nature of this phenomena. Some studies have looked at the employment impacts of developing the circular economy for example, while other have looked at specific sectoral employment implications of the transition to green growth. Overall - and as is the case when it comes to the growth of green industries – the greening of industries is also generally perceived as a potential job booster. For example, a recent study by the UK’s Green Alliance (2015) estimates that by 2030, the circular economy12 could create over 200 000 gross jobs, reduce unemployment by 54 000, and offset around 7% of the expected decline in skilled employment to the years 2022 in the UK alone13.

Evidence of this is also illustrated when analysis specific sectors which are particularly prone to the effects of greening. For example, a report published by the Food Agricultural Organization (Herren, H et al., 2012) indicates that “the transition to more sustainable agriculture practices is needed to support our growing population and should also serve as an economic development engine to create jobs and prosperity in the now impoverished and depopulating rural areas”. According to the same report, the shift to ‘greener agriculture’ is projected to create over 200 million full time jobs in 2050, particularly more decent green jobs across the entire food production system. Opportunities for growth lie in activities in such as no-till cultivation, ‘push pull’ farming, skilled labor pest management, organic farming, agroforestry and eco-tourism.

12 The main activity groups considered as part of the circular economy are reuse, closed loop recycling, biorefining, repair and manufacturing and servitisation. The latter refers “any system which increases the effective use of assets. It can include leasing and moving from providing products to services instead, thereby deferring consumption of new assets. Many examples are B2B (business to business), such as Xerox leasing photocopiers and printers, Interface’s carpet business or Philips ‘pay per Lux’, but there are also B2C (business to customer) or even C2C (customer to customer) examples, such as Airbnb, Streetcar and Campinmygarden.com »

13The main sectors of activity considered are reuse, closed loop recycling, biorefining, repair and manufacturing and servitisation.

Box 3 The employment benefits of green retrofitting in Hungary

A recent study undertaken by Ürge-Vorsatz et al. (2010) looking at the net employment impacts of a large-scale energy-efficiency renovation program in Hungary. The study estimates that a “deep retrofit, fast implementation rate” policy scenario could generate up to 131,000 net jobs in the country, whereas a less ambitious scenario would see the creation of only about 43,000 new jobs. It is important to highlight that almost 38 per cent of these employment gains derive from indirect effects on sectors supplying the construction sector, as well as from the higher spending power resulting from the previous rise in employment.


Source: D. Ürge-Vorsatz et al., 2010 cited in ILO, 2013.

The greening of the agriculture and construction sectors not only has the potential of generating more and better jobs as explained above, but also represents some of the most significant ‘low-hanging fruits’ in terms of emissions abatments and resource consumption reduction potential. For example, the built environment is estimated to be responsible for 25 to 40% of total energy use; 30 to 40% of solid waste generation; and 30 to 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions (UNEP, 2006).

However, overcoming knowledge and skills gaps will be vital to a wide-scale take-up of green business models as well as to the gradual greening of traditional sectors. A recent study conducted by Nordic Innovation (Henriksen, K. et al, 2012) found that the lack of adequate knowledge and skills represent one of the main barriers to the adoption of greener business models. According to the report “in the development and production phases, employees lack knowledge of what substances are contained in the materials they use, alternative materials to use and how to use new materials when developing and designing new products… further down the value chain, marketing and sales staff lack knowledge of how to sell a sustainable product or service and suppliers do not understand the new green business model”. The study identifies skills and competencies in systems and design thinking as key to the successful development and implementation of green business models. Specifically, awareness about new business models, and knowledge about how to create a successful green business model, are still generally perceived as being low among workforces.

Ensuring the existence of an adequate supply of skills necessary to satisfy the labor demands of growing green industries, as well as to design and implement greener business models is a key to ensuring a smooth transition to a green economy. The lack of such skills may considerably hamper the further development of the green economy in both advanced and developing countries alike. However, what types of jobs and skillsets are actually required to sustain this process? And more importantly, what types of education and training policies and programs can ensure the adequate development of these of skills among the labor force?


3 The supply and demand for new and enhanced occupational skills as a result of green growth

Consensus has grown around the idea that the green growth bandwagon is likely to result in a net job growth, and will imply considerable transformation of a number of existing jobs. Understanding the impact of green growth on jobs and the skillsets they relate to, is to key to developing a consistent educational and training policy framework.

3.1 The impact of green growth on labor markets: the net job creation paradigm

Initial concerns that the transition to greener economic models and industries - particularly as a result of the introduction of stricter environmental regulation – would act as ‘job-killers’ have gradually been replaced by the idea that such a transition is likely to result in net employment growth (job gains will outweigh job losses) leading to the growth in the numbers of jobs - particularly green jobs (cf. ). The body of literature produced by major international organizations such as the FAO, ILO14 and UNEP agree on the existence of a positive co-relation between green growth and environmental regulation, and net employment creation. A recent ILO (2013) review of 24 studies available for nine countries and two regions, and one global analysis find that there is a positive net employment creation impact linked to the adoption of environmental policy measures. On average, the study finds that net gains on employment can be expected to range between 0.5 - 2%, translating into 15 - 60 million additional jobs based on today’s workforce. Appendix F presents a more detailed account of the expected employment effects of greening the economy on a sample of developing and advanced economies.

Figure 1 Green Jobs forecasting in South Africa

A recent forecasting study on green jobs in South Africa for example (Maia, J. et al., 2011), reveals the potential of an unfolding green economy to lead to the creation of approximately 98 000 new direct jobs, on average, in the short term, almost 255 000 in the medium term and around 462 000 employment opportunities in the formal economy in the long term. In this particular context, the jobs associated with natural resource management (i.e. activities pertaining to biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration, as well as soil and land management) predominate over green energy generation, energy and resource efficiency, and emissions and pollution mitigation.

The net positive employment impact forecast of the transition to green growth is not only linked to the positive growth forecasts of green industries (cf. Error! Reference source not found.); but

it also relates to the fact that production in green industries tends to be comparatively more labor intensive that in traditional industries. This is often the result of the fact that the production and operation of clean technologies (i.e. renewables) has not yet reached the peak of

14 According to the ILO (2013) « Most studies at global, regional and country level that have investigated the net impact on employment of environmental policy measures suggest it is positive ».


the cost-effectiveness curve (i.e. higher input-output ratio compared to ‘dirty’ industries). According to Dutz & Sharma (2012), “several environmentally beneficial activities in developing countries, including renewable energy but especially changes in land use, could be considerably more labor-intensive than traditional fossil fuel-based energy supply”. Energy efficiency improvements also appear to be labor-intensive, drawing heavily on relatively unskilled labor in the construction sector, which tends to be an important source of employment in developing countries.

There is also evidence pointing to the higher labor intensity requirements of green environmental practices such as organic agriculture (i.e. UNCTAD & UNEP, 2008). According to these studies, the determining factors for the increased labor intensity of organic and sustainable farming practices are generally the increased manual and mechanized labor inputs for more diverse cropping rotations; integration of crops and livestock in order to recycle organic wastes into soil nutrients, maintenance of crop residue and ‘green manure’ ground covers to reduce soil erosion, greater reliance on biological processes for pest and weed management and many other agro-ecological farming methods (Herren, H et al., 2012).

The effects of the transition to green growth on employment will vary with time. From a broad conceptual perspective, the Green jobs report produced by UNEP, ILO, IOE and in 2008 identified four ways in which employment will be affected as economies are redirected towards greater sustainability. First, additional jobs will be created. Second, some employment will shift – for example from fossil fuels to renewables, or from landfilling and waste incineration to recycling. Third, certain jobs may be eliminated without direct replacement. Finally, the jobs of many existing workers (for example, plumbers, electricians, metal workers and construction workers) will simply be redefined as day-to-day skill sets, work methods and profiles are greened.

Box 4 What is a green job?

There has been much discussion about what a ‘green job’ is meant to represent or look like. There appears to be a common set of principles representing the core identity of green jobs, alongside an additional set of traits which are often – but not systematically – associated with the concept. According to Martinez et al (2010) green jobs can be defined as “jobs that contribute to protecting the environment and reducing the harmful effects human activity has on it (mitigation), or to helping to better cope with current climate change conditions (adaptation)”. However, in addition to their environmental dimension, some definitions also introduce the notion of ‘fairness’ or ‘decency’ when describing green jobs (i.e. definition adopted by the ILO). According to InfoDev (2014) “green jobs tend to be more skilled, safer, and better paid than jobs in similar sectors”. As such, the transition to a green economy is often associated with the creation of more jobs, as well as more decent and better-paid jobs. Some argue however that in developing countries, it may be more difficult ensure green jobs are ‘decent’ jobs. Upadhyay and Pahuja for example (2010) make this point in the Indian context, noting that “jobs like that of unskilled labor in biofuel and biomass production could be numerous but of low quality as they barely provide subsistence wages and have difficult work conditions”. A study conducted by GHK (2010) on green jobs in Bangladesh for example shows that only one out of four environmental jobs in the country can be formally described as ‘green’ due to their lack of minimum standards of ‘decency’.

Based on the above, it appears the term ‘green job’ is all but standard. Green jobs can present themselves in a wide array of ‘shades of green’ based on the extent to which they are a reflection of a range of criteria (i.e. sector, occupation, decency). This implies that green jobs span a wide array of skills, educational backgrounds, occupational models, and can be found within different points of value chains an across a wide variety of sectors.


The body of evidence pointing to a potential net job increase linked to the development of the green economy should not be interpreted as an indication that this process will be pain-free. Green restructuring does indeed create winners and losers, and enabling winners is as important as proving assistance to losers. A number of industries already show signs of slowdown as a result of increasing environmental pressures15 such as agriculture, forestry, and fisheries; extractive industries and fossil fuel energy generation; emissions-intensive manufacturing (i.e. automotive sector, cement industry). According to the ILO “the training response to restructuring needs to include not only retraining, especially in cases where employment shifts between industries, but skills upgrading. Skills upgrading is especially important for those industries where employment is stable at present but is expected to shrink in future, and in those where restructuring is being undertaken to make production processes, goods and services greener”(ILO, 24). For a more detailed overview of the employment effects and training needs linked to green restructuring see Appendix D.

3.2 More green jobs means more demand for green skills

The increasing demand for workers able to perform green jobs raises the issue of the types of skills necessary to fill these positions. Developing the right skills among the labor force allowing to fill new jobs and adapt existing ones will be key to unleashing the job and growth potential of the green economy.

The demand for workers in possession of these "green skills" is expected to increase in the years to come as green and greener industries continue to develop. Skills gaps16 and shortages have already been identified in a number of green sectors and are considered to be a major potential roadblock to the smooth transition to a full-fledged green economy. For example, according to the IRENA (2014) renewable energy and jobs 2014 report “education and training are critical enablers for employment in this relatively new and highly dynamic sector. Skill shortages are already creating bottlenecks for deployment in some countries”.

15 Environmental pressures are generally only one of the reasons explaining the slow down of certain economic sectors. These industries have also been affected by other phenomena such as the globalisation of production, technological change, footloose industries and productivity changes leading to to structural changes.

16 Skill shortages are defined as ‘a situation in which the demand for a particular type of skill exceeds the supply of available people with that skill’ (Cedefop, 2010b).


In the developing country context, skills shortages are frequently cited as one of the main barriers to the growth and development of green industries and clean technologies (InfoDev, 2014). Yet in order to define the types of measures required to promote skills acquisition and remediate existing skills shortages in light of the transition to the green economy, it is necessary to understand the types of skills generally associated with green or greening jobs and occupations.

Before analyzing the green jobs-skills nexus however, it is important to first understand the nature of occupational change taking place within the framework of growing green industries. The demand for green skills is underpinned by the extent to which the green transition creates entirely new occupations, or simply requires existing occupations to become greener. Existing evidence indicates that “the predominant demand for skills in greening the

economy is in changing existing occupations rather than in creating new ones” (ILO, 2011). This implies that the greening of existing sets of occupations is a predominant phenomena in the transition to green growth, implying the need for incremental changes in qualifications and skills. It can also be generally stated that new occupations tend to require higher-level qualifications, while changes in existing occupations tend to be concentrated in low- to middle-skilled occupations where traditional skills need to be complemented by new skills through continuing training or on-the-job up-skilling (ILO, 2011). Based on an OECD report on green jobs, it can generally be said that “for low to middle-skilled occupations, there will be a need for traditional skills complemented by "green skills", most of which can be offered by on-the-job training programs. Higher skilled occupations, such as those found in eco-consulting, will require a broader and more specific set of new "green skills", best delivered by educational and in-depth training programs”.

One of the major challenges in ensuring that educational and training policies are able to cope with the skills demands of the green economy, is the fact that green skills come in a variety of shapes and forms. While some argue that "green skills" are simply traditional skills put into use in environmental related sectors and activities; others consider that green skills can be put to use in any sector of the economy, as long as they imply a contribution to climate change adaptation or mitigation. The difficulty in pinpointing what a ‘green skill’ actually refers to is illustrated by the scope of currently accepted definitions of the term. For example, Cedefop (2012) defines green skills as “the knowledge, abilities, values and attitudes needed to live in, develop and support a sustainable and resource-efficient society”. In short green skills are required by all sectors and at all levels of the workforce, and the extent to which they can be considered to be green depends to a large extent, on the context within which they are being applied. Green is neither black nor white. The ILO (2011) nicely summarizes the ‘green skill’ dilemma by stating that “the essential point is that skills are possessed by individuals, who can apply them in different contexts – green or non-green. A green context may call for different skills, but will not

46 Building Competitive Green Industries: The Climate and Clean Technology Opportunity for Developing Countries

Indian clean technology firms are avid innovators. Over the past two years, about 70 percent of surveyed firms introduced new or significantly improved clean technology products or services, methods of manufacturing their clean technology products, and process-based activities to enhance clean technology product delivery (see Figure 4.7). Such innovation across such a broad spectrum of indicators suggests that firms are responding to the dynamic market conditions that are present in India.

As with any market, there are barriers to the rapid scale-up and deployment of solar technologies in India. The top two barriers identified by the clean technology firms surveyed in India for this report are shown in Figure 4.8.

The most commonly cited barrier by far was access to finance, which is particularly problematic considering that 84 percent of surveyed firms plan to raise funding in the next two years. This barrier was particularly acute for the surveyed clean technology firms compared to average Indian firms, who considered access to finance to be the fifth

biggest obstacle to their business. To overcome this barrier, efforts could be made to educate finance providers about the real risks posed by investments in solar, including the strength of contractual guarantees on product performance and the longevity and robustness of the feed-in tariff. Likewise, developers could benefit from support in writing detailed and realistic business cases that meet the standards of lenders.

Access to land, corruption, and customs and trade regulations were also significant barriers for clean technology firms. A lot of clean technologies require access to land, especially large-scale solar, which may underlie this concern, but a focus on rooftop solar PV (which does not require additional land) or smaller, more customized PV applications could mitigate this issue. When asked what the government could do to help overcome these barriers and foster growth in clean technology, surveyed firms indicated a range of potential areas where help would be welcomed, as shown in Figure 4.9. These results show that there is a wide range of different government interventions that would be welcomed by clean technology firms.

Figure 4.8. Most common barriers faced by clean technology SMEs in India

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

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Perc

ent o

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ms

46%

26%24%

22%

18%

14%12%

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Source: Survey of clean technology firms in India undertaken in July and August 2013.

Figure 4.7. Innovation activities undertaken by clean technology SMEs in India

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Hiring ad

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Source: Survey of clean technology firms in India undertaken in July and August 2013.


necessarily do so; and even if it does, it will also use elements of skills which could also be applied in a non-green context. Green jobs need plumbers, roofers, engineers and chemists with a full range of technical skills, reaching way beyond specific sustainability or green skills”.

The following figure presents a simple classification of skills relevant to green occupations and jobs, based two key distinctions: ‘core’ vs. ‘technical’ and ‘green’ vs. ‘generic’ skills. It also provides some examples17 of key occupations and skills for the three priority sectors of this paper. Of course, providing an exhaustive list of relevant skills for all green sectors and occupations is virtually impossible. In addition, beyond a qualitative estimate of the existing and future demand for some of these skills, there is very little evidence suggesting what the key green ‘skills-gaps’ at the global level. Estimating the importance of specific skills gaps requires a country and sector-based assessment.

Figure 2 The link between green and generic occupations and skills in the green economy

Sources: Technopolis Group based

17 The examples provided should by no means be considered exahustive, nor do they reflect any particular hierarchy in terms of skills demands or gaps.

Core skills Technical skills

GreenGeneric Green Generic

•  coordination, management and business skills to facilitate holistic and interdisciplinary !approaches incorporating economic, social and ecological objectives

•  entrepreneurial skills to seize the opportunities of low-carbon technologies;

•  consulting skills to advise consumers about green solutions and to spread the use of green technologies

•  knowing how to learn •  work in teams •  effective communication •  literacy and language

skills•  project management

•  insulation installation•  bricklaying•  meteorology•  generic STEM and

engineering skills (physics, materials, chemistry)

•  computer and IT skills•  urban planning

•  knowledge of new materials, technologies and energy efficiency adapted technical solutions;

•  cross-cutting knowledge of energy issues;

•  building techniques adapted to risks of natural disasters such as earthquakes

•  organic farming techniques•  knowledge of green

building standards•  renewable energy

legislation•  environmental project (i.e.

infrastructure) financing

New or emerging occupationsExisting occupations

•  Farmer / agricultural technician

•  Welder•  Architect•  Roofer•  Urban planner•  Researcher•  Policy-maker

•  Energy auditor•  Eco-adviser in

agriculture•  Renewable energy

engineer•  Solar panel installer


Source: ILO, 2011

As illustrated by Figure 2, new and existing green occupations require a mix of generic and

green core and technical skills. To illustrate this, the survey study carried out among firms in the EGS sector in the state of Michigan (USA) found that in addition to the need for some specialized green skills, employers stressed the need for basic skills in science, technology, engineering and math. The study also showed that even for the new jobs requiring highly-skilled workers, the skill sets used by these workers on green projects are often very similar to those required for non-green projects (DELEG, 2009). Construction companies that carry out building and housing retrofitting will require workers with traditional construction skills and up-to-date training in energy efficiency (Apollo Alliance, 2008).

In addition to the technical skills required to perform jobs in green sectors (i.e. sheetmetal worker producing wind turbines, technical diagnostic skills to conduct a carbon footprint), a broader set of generic & advanced skills have gained recognition of green growth drivers. This notably involves of leadership, risk management, design, communication or commercial and entrepreneurial skills (Cedefop, 2009). Managers require the skills necessary for the promotion and consolidation of commitment to ‘green’ business life cycle analysis, financial modeling of the return on investments in resource-efficient technology, performance monitoring and reporting and sustainable procurement (European Commission and GHK, 2009). These types of ‘green management’ skills have gained increasing recognition as key enablers of the transition to the green economy (European Commission and Oxford Research, 2009).

While shifting the focus of education and training policies to the development of skills traditionally associated with green jobs represents one piece of the puzzle, ensuring that the majority of the labor force is equipped with basic and generic skills represents another important priority. This is particularly true for developing countries where a number of the skill shortages in connection with green growth stem from “generic failings in education and training and reflect long-standing issues such as the lack of incentives for employers to invest in developing the transferable skills of their workforces, the lack of access to time and finance for training on the part of the disadvantaged and the stickiness of relative pay rates”. In other words, addressing the issue of skills for green growth is not only about facilitating the development of new green skills adapting existing skills to greener demands, but it also about ensuring that generic education and training systems function properly.

Box 5 Back to the basics: the importance of basic skills for the green economy

Work conducted by ILO on green jobs and skills (2011) provides a useful reminder of the importance of basic skills in efforts to prepare the labor force for the demands of the green economy, particularly in a developing economy context. According to a 2011 report, “while being environmentally sensitive or living in harmony with nature in a traditional sense might not require literacy and numeracy skills, participation in a green economy that relies on a wide range of modern technologies to shift current ways of production and consumption to more sustainable forms certainly does… Basic literacy and numeracy skills are also a foundation for further learning and attaining technical competencies. Developing countries with high levels of illiteracy and/or innumeracy in the population can therefore take a substantial step in facilitating the transition to a green economy by tackling this challenge”.


4 The educational policy implications of supporting the transition to green growth: key priorities and successful examples

In response to the growing green economy and the call for a larger and appropriately skilled workforce from employers, policy makers and education providers are up for a challenge to understand how they can best contribute to the knowledge base required in a dynamic and emerging field. Whilst the role of the education system is arguably more than to produce future workers, many educators are keen to support students prepare and adapt to a greener economy. Efforts to support this process arise amongst others from education conferences, via programs of environmental organizations and by setting up partnerships with businesses. Whether by general ‘Greening Your Curricula’ and ‘Green Your School’ initiatives for primary and secondary education such as done in North America18 to triggering interest and developing technology at universities in India, South Africa, Colombia and others via programs like the World Solar Challenge19, to formulating ‘National Green Skills Agreement’ to foster partnerships between vocational education, industry and government in Australia20, education systems at all levels are already gearing up their curricular for a green economy.

Within this process, educators are faced with a mountain of challenges. How can they determine how to best help students prepare for a changing economy with such complex areas of skill and competency requirements? Where should the effort be directed, to students undergoing compulsory, vocational or higher education or would they support the economy better by focusing on up-skilling and re-training the current labor force? Where is the balance between technical professions and general non-sector specific skills? The answer is of course, on all and everything, but in a coherent and strategic manner, as opposed to an orientation on one level of education or ad hoc interventions. The appropriate approach to responding to the call for a greener skilled labor force, can be tackled along the entire learning pathway – from primary education to lifelong learning, and for that, a role exists for educators, policy makers and the industry.

4.1 The foundation for educating for the green economy is there

Despite the complexity of the challenges, efforts of the education sector to support ‘the green economy’ are by no means a new area of development. Curricula already exist to prepare for green jobs, such as in the field of engineering, biology, geography and the environment. In the case of the latter, the results of the OECD’s 2006 PISA study found that “almost all [15 year old] students in OECD countries attend schools that teach environmental science as part of the science curriculum”.21

Brazil for example, has developed an approach to switching to renewable energy relatively early and has thereby been confronted with many challenges, including the need for specific ‘green’

18 For example, as promoted by non-profit organisations such as California’s Centre for Ecoliteracy http://www.ecoliteracy.org and State Environmental Agencies, such as in Illinois http://greeningschools.org/resources/curricula.cfm

19 http://www.worldsolarchallenge.org 20 IVET Information Shared – Green Skills available from http://www.ivet.com.au/a/71.html 21 OECD, Education Policy 25 PISA IN FOCUS 2012/04 (April) available from http://www.oecd.org/pisa/pisaproducts/pisainfocus/50150271.pdf

http://www.ecoliteracy.org

http://greeningschools.org/resources/curricula.cfm

http://www.worldsolarchallenge.org

http://www.ivet.com.au/a/71.html

http://www.oecd.org/pisa/pisaproducts/pisainfocus/50150271.pdf


skills. Brazil’s green economic strategies strongly link the promotion of energy efficiency and clean energy – notably for transportation and waste management- with the need to preserve its environment. This combination has resulted in the involvement of both the Ministry of the Environment and of Education in identifying skills needs and support education providers to update their curricula accordingly. Building upon their national policy for environmental education from 1999, Brazil has developed a variety of education and training programs at all levels of education. This integrated approach introduces students to concepts of the green economy – embedded in environmental education - throughout their learning pathway and incorporates them in their regular curricula.

Building on a strong foundation means that there are plenty of opportunities for the education system to build on and support the preparation or retraining of skill development required for the green economy. This also includes areas of education that are evolving for other reasons. For example, with increasingly large investments in nanotechnology as a resource for a wide range of technological innovations in general, governments are seizing upon this area of research and education to address the greening of industries and green economy. In this regard, Germany has developed a Nanotechnology Action Plan to finance research and education of nanotechnology with the specific objectives of addressing resource efficiency and environmental protection. Similarly, The governments of Japan and Korea have shifted their allocation of priorities regarding nanotechnology from research and development towards green innovation. 22

In contrast, when innovation in the ICT world emerged, a new set of skills and knowledge evolved resulting in the rapid development of new courses, changes to the curricula, infrastructure and the up-skilling of educators to be able to use these new developments. Rather than a whole new area of teaching, the growth of the green economy, by and large requires the updating and in some cases overhaul of existing pathways of learning. Similarly to the ICT boom, however, the response to the changes caused by the growth in the green economy, will require a thorough understanding of the needs rising from the labor market, and as has been identified in the previous sections, this is not only a challenge for the education system.

The level of preparedness and need for change depends on the existing dialogue between education, industry and policy. In countries where joint-strategies and structural ways to obtain feedback is embedded in the system, educators have access to the signals and information needed to be able to respond accordingly. Such partnerships may be in the form of a structured dialogue, existing dual learning pathways (such as apprenticeships) or the promotion of industry knowledge amongst teachers. On the other hand, countries where there is little collaboration or partnerships, educators have to find alternative ways to access key people and organizations necessary to understand the changes in the labor market that may affect the approach and content of curricula. The importance of informing and encouraging educators has been highlighted by a recent study in Sweden, which saw that “participating in a teacher education course (designed to provide the tools needed to teach about SD [sustainable development]) can generate pro-SD beliefs and norms among future teachers”…and generates more “of a perceived

22OECD (2013), “Nanotechnology for Green Innovation”, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers, No. 5, OECD Publishing


moral obligation to do something about environmental problems” than amongst teachers not following such courses. 23

4.2 Preparing for green industry or the greening of industries?

Whether the education system is prepared for the green economy may also matter which part it attempts to respond to; the green industry or the greening of industries. The attractiveness of new technologies and clean energy has boosted initiatives and partnerships for especially the clean tech industry. For example, the Desertec Foundation finances a partnership between 18 universities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa to share research and technology developments and support education activities on renewable energies. 24

Educating for the green industry implies the need for (new) green technical and core skills, notably for technique specific engineers, builders, installers, managers, auditors, etc. In this regard, we have seen amongst others technical schools emphasizing innovation and existing campuses in higher education turning into ‘green campuses’ across the continents. These green campus initiatives may contain components that raise awareness amongst all students (such as recycling programs), but are at its core often geared towards promoting and exploring innovations in technology and knowledge related to green industry developments. In growing numbers, the greening of higher education is becoming a way to attract students, whether through ‘green awards’, as for example is the case for the University of the Western Cape (UWC) in South Africa25, or by ranking green campuses as a means to score quality education, such as is done by the Princeton Review.26 The challenge with these campuses is to not only provide a platform for learning for those choosing a green industry career, but also find a way to stimulate students opting for a pathway in regular industries.

Raufflet (2013) highlighted the difficulty higher education faces with incorporating green economy concepts into non-green specific courses, by analyzing the approach taken and obstacles encountered in integrating sustainability in management education. He identified amongst others, that educators struggle to comprehend ‘conceptual concepts’ of green education, face ‘institutional challenges’ in the ethos and functioning of business schools and, lastly, are often unclear whether they should “redesign the curriculum with sustainability as an anchoring point” or create ad hoc courses.27

4.3 Preparing students for the future economy

With the green economy not yet having reached its peak off efficiency, neither has the education system globally caught up sufficiently to reach a level of maturity for the green economy. As Desha and Hargroves (2014)28 indicated, the current approach to the green economy within the

23 Andersson, K., Jagers S. Lindskog, A. Martinsson, J. 2013. Learning for the Future? Effects of Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) on Teacher Education Students. Sustainability 2013, 5, 5135-5152

24 http://www.dun-eumena.com/about-dun/mission-and-objectives 25 https://www.uwc.ac.za/News/Pages/UWC-Africa's-Greenest-Campus-2014.aspx 26 http://www.princetonreview.com/college-rankings/green-guide 27 Raufflet, E 2013. Integrating Sustainability in Management Education Humanities 2013, 2, 439–448. 28 Desha, C. and Hargroves, C. 2014. A Peaking and Tailing Approach to Education and Curriculum Renewal for Sustainable

Development. Sustainability. 2014 (6): pp. 4181-4199.

http://www.dun-eumena.com/about-dun/mission-and-objectives

https://www.uwc.ac.za/News/Pages/UWC-Africa's-Greenest-Campus-2014.aspx

http://www.princetonreview.com/college-rankings/green-guide


education system tends prepares students for an economy gone rather than the economy of the future. They argue that the lengthy process for changing curricula to impact the economy is a key factor hampering such changes, as is the lack of overall coordination to support this process. With the lengthy process for change to be visible, it is not a matter of adjusting the education system to adapt curricula frequently, but instead to develop a long-term vision for curricula based on understanding the current and anticipated changes in the green economy over time. They note that the “relative lack of progress is a result of many well-intentioned efforts that have been hampered by the complexity of the capacity building challenge and the momentum of current practices and approaches.” Instead, a more comprehensive approach is needed, to link curricula to the anticipated role the students are likely to play when a large enough cohort have received similar training.

For example, with the increasing interest of moving towards – and investing in- a green economy in South Africa, the demand for technological skills for renewable energy is gradually evolving. The government of South Africa is therefore working closely with the government of Germany to support experiential learning projects to make technological innovations adaptable for a greener economy, such as for solar water heaters, waste disposal management and resource efficiency in production processes.29

In other words, skills required in the short run should come from graduate programs, ad hoc courses and other (re)training and up-skilling courses aimed at the current and soon-to-be workforce. For example, “short courses in Bangladesh or Uganda for graduates in science or engineering, architects, policy-makers or economists are provided by universities (e.g., respectively, the Renewable Energy Research Centre at the University of Dhaka and Makerere University). In Uganda, staff of registered solar energy companies hold qualifications in business management, electrical engineering or technical trades. Most have been trained in skills related to the assembly, installation and repair of solar energy panels by international consultants. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development in Uganda, in partnership with Makerere University, has launched continuing training programs for local technicians on panel fitting and maintenance. “30This argument is also supported by the ILO’s suggestion that the highest demand for skills currently is within existing job profiles, rather than new occupations, as explored in the previous section.

Curricula for those nearing the end of secondary education or just beginning their higher education pathway should instead prepare for the skills that are likely needed in an economy in approximately 15-20 years. Such a comprehensive approach may sound evident, but in practice, this is still proven to be rather challenging. The complexity arises in two areas: firstly in understanding what skills are actually needed in the short term and potentially needed in the long run, and which area of education is best placed to provide such expertise and secondly, in aligning the provision of learning amongst education providers at various level, notably upper level secondary education, higher education, vocational education and private sector education providers.

29 https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/17848.html 30 Skills for green jobs: a global view: synthesis report based on 21 country studies/Olga Strietska-Ilina, Christine Hofmann,

Mercedes Durán Haro, Shinyoung Jeon ; International Labour Office, Skills and Employability Department, Job Creation and Enterprise Development Department. - Geneva: ILO, 2011

https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/17848.html


The Australian state of New South Wales and its Board of Vocational Education and Training (BVET) for example, commissioned research on the skills required for sustainable business development resulting in the first edition of Skills for Sustainability in 2007, which was again updated in 2009. This inventory led to the NSW Green Skills Strategy in 2008 implemented by the NSW Deptartment of Education and Training. 31Similarly, as recently as 2010, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics measures the changes and growth of green jobs in the country, which serves policy makers with input for adapting education and employment policies. 32

All in all, such an approach requires that education providers of all these levels – who may in fact be competing against each other for students in some education systems - work together in aligning their curricula and reaching consensus on who fulfills what role, thereby creating a systematic approach to the challenge. Furthermore, they need to build a joint dialogue with the industries to create feedback loops to ensure they remain informed of changes in the economy and changes in the need in (anticipated) skills and competencies. In the Netherlands, for example, 6 higher education institutes and 13 VET schools set up a platform for ‘green learning’ where they collaborate with sector organizations, environmental agencies and the government to determine how their curricula respond and anticipate to the green economy.33At the same time, a Human Capital Agenda for the energy sector has been developed to focus specifically on promoting a greener economy through local use of clean energy, developing more clean technologies and making existing industries more energy-efficient.34

4.4 Re-training and up-skilling the workforce

The implication of this is that life long learning programs could play an important role in fulfilling the short-term demands of the economy, notably in providing up-skills and re-training courses for those already in the labor market or about to enter it. Programs such as the Sustainability Education and Economic Development Center (SEED), which offers 470 community colleges with the resources for ‘green curricula’ in the United States play an important role in supporting the re-training and up-skilling the workforce for the green economy.35

The ILO Framework for Skills Development adds to this that aspect that by ensuring appropriate forms of life long learning, the education system is not only contributing to meeting the demand for labor but also “to sustain the virtuous circle of improved productivity of enterprises and improved worker employability”. In other words, ensuring that those already active in the labor market do not lose their attractiveness to employers. By fulfilling this role the education system then plays an important role in supporting the green economy and society in general.

For example in India where the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) is one of the largest social partners. In many countries, social partners play an important role in the up-skilling and

31 Dalziel, P (2011) Skills Development in the green economy.- Chapter 3. Lincoln University. Agribusiness and Economics Research Unit.

32 http://www.bls.gov/green/ 33 http://www.samenwerkenmetgroenonderwijs.nl 34 http://topsectorenergie.nl/strategische-themas/human-capital-agenda/ 35 http://www.theseedcenter.org

http://www.bls.gov/green

http://www.samenwerkenmetgroenonderwijs.nl

http://topsectorenergie.nl/strategische-themas/human-capital-agenda

http://www.theseedcenter.org


re-skilling of the labour force, whether in a formalized role - officially agreed with the government - or simply in response to the needs identified by employers, especially as they relate to bottleneck vacancies. The CII established the Godrej Green Business Centre in 2004 to support businesses involved in several areas of the greening and green industry, notably in construction, renewable energy, waste management and certification. Providing education and training to employees in the sector is one of the ways it contributes to business growth. The Centre works with 20 architectural and engineering colleges to introduce training programs in the green building segment under its Indian Green Building Council's student chapter.1

A key area for life long learning programs and courses to tackle in order to support the green economy lies with encouraging the adaptability of the work force and thereby generic skills (as identified in the previous section). Indeed, as Slingenberg (2009) noted “the specific sector often referred to as the eco-industry in literature does not necessarily have different general qualification requirements for its workers compared to general qualification requirements of traditional jobs. However, skills they have often require adaptation to environmental phenomena and technologies that means they can apply their traditional skills in changing circumstances.” (CEDEFOP, 2009).36 This is not to say that short courses and re-training and up-skilling courses and programs do not have a role to play in increasing technical skills, but when done so, it should be carefully considered how long such training is necessary until it is sufficiently incorporated in regular secondary, higher and vocational education programs. This was also found as one of the impediments to green economy growth in Costa Rica. Although the country is known for its advanced education in environmental protection and large investments in education to support industrial labor, it was found that they were “short of the workers with more technical, creative and soft skills”.37

The extent of the challenge for life long learning programs depends much on the way the education system is organized nationally and what role the private sector plays in providing in company training. Some countries have well-developed programs for adult education within the formal education system whereas others depend on the provision of learning through the private sector, if they have any adult education at all. Both approaches have their own set of challenges.

The EU recognized this limitation amongst its Member States and therefore set up a fund for transnational cooperation between VET providers and employers. This ‘bottom-up’ approach was organized through the Leonardo da Vinci program in 2000-2006 and 2007-2013. One of its priorities was the adaptation of skills to innovations. Several consortia of applicants from different countries therefore used this program to improve the adaptability of business and VET to innovation in the green economy. Examples of these projects include:

• E-Green Jobs, a project providing training and awareness programs by private VET providers for green skills amongst business owners, farmers, engineers and technicians in Poland, Italy, and Portugal.

36 CEDEFOP (2009): Future skill needs for the green economy, European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.

37 Granoff, I a.o. (2015) Bridging Costa Rica’s growth gap, how to support further transformation to a green economy in Costa Rica, Overseas Development Institute (ODI), UK.


• The development of a ‘GreenPoint Qualification Standard’, specifically designed for the metal sector by the sector organisation. Trainings have been provided to support its implementation in small enterprises in Spain, the UK, France, Germany and Poland.

• The development of training tools for the EU wide BE-SMARTER network (a network for environmental management system practitioners). The training tools aimed to increase the support to SMEs to implement environmental management systems.

• The ‘Green Skills’ project, which financed research on gaps and challenges to incorporate green skills into VET in EU Member States and resulted in a recommendation report for policy makers.

In a nutshell, if adult education is provided through formal education, the challenge is that these programs are often geared towards basic education; providing second-chance education, rather than up-skilling and re-training the workforce. This is a serious challenge for the green economy as recent studies on SMEs, Entrepreneurship and Innovation by the OECD identified that "even in the most negative scenario, more than 80% of jobs by 2020 are expected to require medium and high levels of skills while low-skills jobs will continue to decline. These high-level green skills will be necessary to adjust to the green transformation of the economy. Green skills include specific skills to modify products, services or operations due to climate change adjustments, requirements or regulations." If a country’s adult education system focuses only on basic education, it will need to find other pathways of learning for those already in or about to enter the labor market.

In the case where adult education is strongly embedded in the private sector, the advantage is that they may be closer to the industry, but the challenge is oversight on quality assurance, the costs for low-income workers and coherence: are there enough of the right type of courses provided or is each developed in its own silo.

Policy makers thus need to review the functionality of their adult education system to understand whether and where training for the economy in the short term can be realized. If there is little to no adult education available yet, the green economy may provide an opportunity to review where ‘quick wins’ can be made within the education system. For example, opening up traditional pathways of higher education to entry and certification of courses, expanding existing non-profit initiatives and industry training programs to a wider audience or develop a targeted initiative to introduce and facilitate more online (MOOC) courses for specific knowledge.


5 Conclusions

Over the past decade, and notably during and after the 2008 economic crisis, policy makers and businesses globally have made strides forward towards realizing a green economy, whether through (new) clean technologies or by greening existing industries. Green growth inevitably requires the labor force to adapt and has been demonstrated in this paper, governments are working towards identifying what kind of changes have occurred and are likely required in the (near) future in terms of jobs gained, lost and changes in skill needs.


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Bisgaard, T et al., 2012, Green Business Model Innovation: Conceptualisation, Next Practice and Policy, NORDEN Nordic Innovation.

Bowen, A. & Kuralbayeva, K, 2015, Looking for green jobs: the impact of green growth on employment, London and Seoul, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI)

CEDEFOP (European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training), 2012, Green skills and environmental awareness in vocational education and training: Synthesis report, Publications office of the European Union

Cruz, L., 2010, Skills for green jobs in Brazil: Unedited background country study, ILO.

DELEG (Department of Energy, Labour and Economic Growth), 2009, Michigan Green Jobs Report 2009, Michigan. Available at: www.michigan.gov/documents/nwlb/GJC_GreenReport_Print_277833_7.pdf.

Dutz, M. & Siddharth, S., 2012, Green Growth, Technology and Innovation, World Bank

Barsoumian, S. et al., 2011, Eco-innovation and national cluster policies in Europe: A qualitative review, Study performed by Greenovate! Europe EEIG for the European Cluster Observatory

Bowen, A., 2012, ‘Green’ Growth, ‘Green’ Jobs and Labor Markets, World Bank

Ecorys, 2009, Study on the Competitiveness of the EU eco-industry. Within the Framework Contract of Sectoral Competitiveness Studies – ENTR/06/054

EIO (Eco-innovation observatory), 2011, The role of eco-innovation for the construction sector in Europe, Brussels, Report prepared for the European Commission

EIO, 2013, Europe in transition: Paving the way to a green economy through eco-innovation: Annual Report 2012, Brussels, Report prepared for the European Commission

EIO, 2012, Eco-innovation practices and business opportunities for European SMEs in the emerging markets of Asia, Latin America and Africa, Brussels, Report prepared for the European Commission

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EU Skills Panorama, 2014, Renewable energy sector Analytical Highlight, prepared by ICF GHK and Cedefop for the European Commission

European Commission (EC), 2011, European Competitiveness Report 2011, EC Directorate- General for Enterprise and Industry

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Green Alliance, 2015, Opportunities to tackle Britain’s labour market challenges through growth in the circular economy, London.

Hallegatte, S. et al., 2013, Green Industrial Policies, World Bank.

Henriksen, K. et al, 2012, Green Business Model Innovation: Empirical and literature studies, NORDEN Nordic Innovation"

Herren, H et al., 2012, Green Jobs for a Revitalized Food and Agriculture Sector, Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

HSBC Global Research, 2009, A climate for recovery: the coulour of stimulus goes green. Available at: http://www.research.hsbc.com

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ILO, 2007a, Green jobs: Climate change in the world of work. The Magazine of the ILO. Available at: http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/dgreports/dcomm/documents/publication/wcm s_083901.pdf

ILO, 2013, Sustainable development, decent work and green jobs, International Labour Conference, 102nd Session.

ILO & CEDEFOP, 2011, Skills for Green Jobs: A Global view, Synthesis Report basedon 21 country studies, Switzerland, INTELLS International Labour Office

ILO & EC (European Commission), 2011, Skills and Occupational Needs in Renewable Energy

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Leslie, N. 2013, Trends in Clean-Tech Investing: The Search for Leaner and Less Capital-Intensive Investment, Forbury Investment Network, Available: http://www.forburyinvest.com/Content.aspx?id=105

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http://www.research.hsbc.com

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http://www.infodev.org

http://www.irena.org/publications/rejobs-annual-review-2014.pdf

http://www.forburyinvest.com/Content.aspx?id=105


Lovo, S. et al, 2015, Green agricultural policies and poverty reduction, London and Seoul, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI)

Maia, J. et al, 2011, Green jobs: an estimate on the direct employment potential of a greening South African economy. Industrial Development Corporation, Development Bank of Southern Africa, Trade and Industrial Policy Strategies.

Martinez-Fernandez, C et al., 2010, Green jobs and skills: the local labour market implications of addressing climate change, OECD

Martinez-Fernandez, C et al., 2014, Skills Development by Green and Inclusive SMEs in India: Entrepreneurs’ Approaches, UK, The Donor Committee for Enterprise Development (DCEDLLS DCED)

McKinsey, 2011, Resource revolution: Meeting the world’s energy, materials, food, and water needs. McKinsey Global Institute. McKinsey Sustainability and Resource Productivity Practice.

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The Carbon Trust, 2015, Understanding the business response to climate change and resource scarcity.

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http://www.emergingindustries.eu/methodologies/definitions/eco-industries.aspx



https://www.gov.uk/government/policies/increasing-the-use-of-low-carbon-technologies.United



http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/AboutGEI/WhatisGEI/tabid/29784/Def


UNEP, 2012, The Business Case for the Green Economy: Sustainable Return on Investment.

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http://www.usgbc.org/ShowFile.aspx?DocumentID=6435


Appendix B NACE codes for green industries (Level 4 NACE description)

0620 Extraction of natural gas

0910 Support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction

1621 Manufacture of veneer sheets and wood-based panels

1629 Manufacture of other products of wood; manufacture of articles of cork, straw and plaiting materials

1722 Manufacture of household and sanitary goods and of toilet requisites

2014 Manufacture of other organic basic chemicals

2015 Manufacture of fertilisers and nitrogen compounds

2016 Manufacture of plastics in primary forms

2059 Manufacture of other chemical products n.e.c.

2229 Manufacture of other plastic products

2349 Manufacture of other ceramic products

2351 Manufacture of cement

2410 Manufacture of basic iron and steel and of ferro-alloys

2521 Manufacture of central heating radiators and boilers

2530 Manufacture of steam generators, except central heating hot water boilers

2599 Manufacture of other fabricated metal products n.e.c.

2651 Manufacture of instruments and appliances for measuring, testing and navigation

2811 Manufacture of engines and turbines, except aircraft, vehicle and cycle engines

2829 Manufacture of other general-purpose machinery n.e.c.

2899 Manufacture of other special-purpose machinery n.e.c.

3511 Production of electricity

3513 Distribution of electricity

3514 Trade of electricity

3521 Manufacture of gas

3522 Distribution of gaseous fuels through mains

3600 Water collection, treatment and supply


3700 Sewerage

3811 Collection of non-hazardous waste

3812 Collection of hazardous waste

3821 Treatment and disposal of non-hazardous waste

3822 Treatment and disposal of hazardous waste

3832 Recovery of sorted materials

3900 Remediation activities and other waste management services

4312 Site preparation

4621 Wholesale of grain, unmanufactured tobacco, seeds and animal feeds

4622 Wholesale of flowers and plants

4677 Wholesale of waste and scrap

4776 Retail sale of flowers, plants, seeds, fertilisers, pet animals and pet food in specialised stores

4950 Transport via pipeline

5222 Service activities incidental to water transportation

5229 Other transportation support activities

7112 Engineering activities and related technical consultancy

7211 Research and experimental development on biotechnology

7219 Other research and experimental development on natural sciences and engineering

8122 Other building and industrial cleaning activities


Appendix C Green job creation estimates for South Africa

OVERVIEW

GREEN JOBS: AN ESTIMATE OF THE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT POTENTIAL OF A GREENING SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY 8

Table 0.1: Net direct employment potential estimated for the four broad types of activity and their

respective segments in the long term, and an indication of the roll-out over the three timeframes

Notes:

VH = very high (total employment potential > 20 000 direct jobs; manufacturing employment potential > 3 000 direct jobs)

H = high (total employment potential > 8 000 but < 20 000; manufacturing employment potential > 1 000 but < 3 000)

M = medium (total employment potential > 3 000 but < 8 000; manufacturing employment potential > 500 but < 1 000)

L = low (total employment potential > 1 000 but < 3 000; manufacturing employment potential > 150 but < 500)

VL = very low (total employment potential > 0 but < 1 000; manufacturing employment potential > 0 but < 150)

N = negligible/none (total employment potential = 0; manufacturing employment potential = 0)

Source: Authors

Segment Technology/product

Total net direct

employment potential in

the long-term

Net direct manufacturing employment

potential in the long-term

Total net direct

employment potential

(ST, MT, LT)

Net direct manufacturing employment potential (ST,

MT, LT)

Onshore wind power

Offshore wind power

Concentrated solar

power3 014 608 N, VL, M N, VL, M

Photovoltaic power 13 541 8 463 M, H, H H, VH, VH

Marine power Marine power 197 0 N, N, VL N, N, N

Large hydro power 272 111 VL, VL, VL VL, M, VL

Micro-/small-hydro

power100 0 VL, VL, VL N, N, N

Landfills 1 178 180 VL, VL, L VL, VL, L

Biomass combustion 37 270 154 VL, H, VH VL, VL, L

Anaerobic digestion 1 429 591 VL, VL, L VL, L, M

Pyrolysis/Gasification 4 348 2 663 VL, L, M VL, H, H

Co-generation 10 789 1 050 L, M, H M, H, H

Bio-ethanol

Bio-diesel

130 023 22 566

Insulation, lighting,

windows7 340 838 L, M, M L, M, M

Solar water heaters 17 621 1 225 L, H, H L, M, H

Rain water harvesting 1 275 181 VL, VL, L VL, VL, L

Transportation Bus Rapid Transport 41 641 350 VH, VH, VH H, M, L

Energy efficient motors -566 4 VL, VL, VL VL, VL, VL

Mechanical insulation 666 89 VL, VL, VL VL, VL, VL

67 977 2 686

Air pollution control 900 166 N, VL, VL N, L, L

Electrical vehicles 11 428 10 642 VL, L, H N, H, VH

Clean stoves 2 783 973 VL, VL, L VL, L, M

Acid mine water

treatment361 0 VL, VL, VL N, N, N

Carbon Capture and Storage

251 0 N, VL, VL N, N, N

Recycling 15 918 9 016 M, H, H H, VH, VH

31 641 20 797

121 553 0 H, VH, VH N, N, N

111 373 0 VH, VH, VH N, N, N

232 926 0

462 567 46 049TOTAL

NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT SUB-TOTAL

Broad green economy category

ENERGY GENERATION

Renewable (non-fuel) electricity

Wind power

NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

Biodiversity conservation & eco-system restoration

Soil & land management

Solar power

Hydro power

Waste-to-energy

Green buildings

Liquid fuel Bio-fuels

ENERGY GENERATION SUB-TOTAL

ENERGY & RESOURCE EFFICIENCY SUB-TOTAL

EMMISIONS AND POLLUTION MITIGATION SUB-TOTAL

L, M, H

L, H, VH

ENERGY & RESOURCE EFFICIENCY

Industrial

EMMISIONS AND POLLUTION MITIGATION

Pollution control

VL, L, M

M, H, VH

Fuel-based renewable electricity

2 1055 156

6 64152 729


Appendix D The negative employment and skills effects of green restructuring for a selected group of industries (ILO, 2011)

Appendix E The positive employment and skills effects of green restructuring for a selected group of industries (ILO, 2011)

Appendix F Estimated employment effects of greening the economy (ILO, 2013)

4.5 Industries with high employment potentialGreen activities where demand is rising are likely to absorb some workers from declining industries.The reported environmental challenges are similar across all countries, dominated by the need tomitigate and adapt to climate change. This focus is resulting in a very strong emphasis on policiesthat promote the production and use of clean energy. This in turn is likely to have positive effectson employment in the related industries. The industries that will gain from this shift and the associated restructuring processes are summarized in table 4.3 and in the text below. A detailedanalysis of changing and emerging skills and occupations in these sectors is provided in Chapter5 (section 5.4).

754 Green structural change and retraining needs

Industry Employment effect Type of restructuring Countries affected2 Training needs

Renewable energies: Gaining, though job losses Absorbing workers from AUS, BGD, BRA, Skills upgrading: energywind, wave and tidal in solar expected in DEU other industries CHN, DEU, efficient solutions,power, solar, hydro, DNK, EGY, ESP, management andbiomass, geothermal FRA, GBR, IDN, entrepreneurship skills, incl.

IND, MLI, PHL, project management skillsTHA, UGA,USA, ZAF Retraining from

manufacturing

Retraining as engineers,installers, technicians,operation and maintenancespecialists

Green building and Stable or gaining Restructuring within AUS, BRA, CHN, Skills upgrading: energyretrofitting construction industry DEU, DNK, efficiency, green

and through the value EGY, ESP, EST, technologies, new materials,chain (energy, suppliers FRA, GBR, MLI, energy auditing/certificationof materials etc.) THA, USA, ZAF

Transport Stable or gaining; Intra-industry AUS, BGD, BRA, Retraining and skillstaxi drivers lose jobs restructuring EST, FRA, MLI, upgrading into various publicas countries move to mass UGA, USA transportation jobspublic transportation

Telecommunications Gaining Intra-industry BGD A target to cut CO2 emissions restructuring by 30% by 2015

Skills upgrading for newgreen technologies (including renewable energy powergeneration network facilities)

(Re)training of networkengineers and technicians

Recycling and waste Gaining Intra-industry BGD, BRA, Retraining from wastemanagement restructuring CHN, DEU, collection to recycling; skills

EGY, MLI, PHL, upgrading in methaneUSA and energy recover

Water Gaining Intra-industry ESP, EST, FRA, Skills upgrading: waterrestructuring IND, USA resource management, water

conservation and efficient use,wastewater treatment

1 This table is not exhaustive: it does not take into account information from other sources.2 AUS = Australia, BGD = Bangladesh, BRA = Brazil, CHN = China, CRI = Costa Rica, DEU = Germany, DNK = Denmark, EGY = Egypt, ESP= Spain, EST = Estonia, FRA = France, GBR = the United Kingdom, IDN = Indonesia, IND = India, KOR = Republic of Korea, MLI = Mali,PHL = Philippines, THA = Thailand, UGA = Uganda, USA = the United States, ZAF = South Africa.

Source: Authors. Based on the information from country reports.

Table 4.3. “Green” restructuring: Industries likely to gain and associated retraining needs1


30 ILC

.102/V

Sustainable developm

ent, decent work and green jobs

Table 2.1. Estimated employment effects of greening the economy

Country Model and employment effects

Australia � An additional 770,000 jobs by 2030 (a gain of 5–6 per cent by 2030) could be created by an emissions trading system coupled with government incentives,

relative to an approach relying on carbon markets only

� 2.5 million jobs could be created by 2025 by reducing GHG emissions 60–100 per cent by 2050, while “Factor 4” resource efficiency offers gains of 3.3 million

jobs over the next 20 years, and 7.5 million by 2050

� Construction and transport jobs are projected to grow significantly faster than the national average

Brazil � Employment is expected to increase by 1.13 per cent annually between 2010 and 2030, and GDP could increase 0.5 per cent per year on average by

reducing pasture areas and protecting forests

China � 6.8 million direct and indirect jobs could be created by meeting government wind, solar and hydropower targets

� Losses from reduction in energy intensity of industry could be outstripped by almost 10 million jobs by increased employment in renewable industry and by

shifting from basic industries towards services

European Union � More than half a million net jobs could be created in 2014–20 by investing 14 per cent of the total EU budget in renewable energy, nature conservation, green

buildings, and sustainable transport (about 130,000 jobs per €1 billion); shifting investment from current patterns to green sectors could increase job creation

per euro by a factor of three

� EU could add between 1.4 and 2.8 million jobs compared with BAU by reducing the total material requirements of its economy by 17 per cent (every

percentage point reduction in resource use could lead to up to 100,000 to 200,000 new jobs)

� A 1.3 per cent increase in employment and 8 per cent decline in CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2010 generated by increased energy taxes, according to

one economic model

� A 0.6 per cent rise in employment and 4.4 per cent decline in CO2 emissions through increased energy prices and lower labour costs, according to another

model

� An increase in employment (by up to 0.5 per cent) could be brought about by a carbon tax in six EU countries to reduce energy demand and carbon

emissions, while raising GDP (despite some negative short-term transition effects)

Germany � An increase in employment by 0.55 per cent and a 2 per cent cut in CO2 emissions between 1999 and 2010, by recycling energy tax revenue to subsidize

social security contributions levied on labour

� Slight positive employment effects and a sharp fall in CO2 emissions in response to an increase in the tax rates and the abolition of eco-tax exemptions

� 250,000 jobs were created by ecological tax reform over the period 1999–2003, particularly in labour-intensive sectors, while reducing fuel consumption and

CO2 emissions by 7 per cent and 2–2.5 per cent, respectively

Indonesia � a 2 per cent GDP annual green investment in energy, transportation, forestry could generate between 938,984 and 1,270,390 jobs in four sectors with decent

working conditions, many being green jobs.

Republic of Korea � 11.8 to 14.7 million new jobs could be created by 2020 through US$97 billion in public investment committed for 2009–13 in support of a green transition

Lebanon � Employment gains projected by 2020 in forestry: 15,000; waste management: 2500; construction: 2,800; and energy: 4,000 by 2020.


ILC.102/V

31

Seizing the opportunities: Lessons from

international experience

Country Model and employment effects Norway � Net employment gains of 0.5–1.5 per cent could be realized through CO2 mitigation actions that reduce emissions by 20 per cent over the period 2008–20,

when revenues from carbon pricing are used to reduce social contributions (with exact results depending on the policy package considered)

Mauritius � Significantly higher employment can be generated in green activities versus conventional ones per million rupees of final demand: 5 per cent more jobs in agriculture, 67 per cent more in manufacturing and textiles, over 60 per cent more in tourism/hotel services, and 75 per cent more in renewable energy

South Africa � 98,000 new direct jobs can be created in the short term (2011–12), 255,000 in the medium term (2013–17), and 462,000 in the long term (2018–25) through low-carbon energy generation, energy and resource efficiency, emission and pollution mitigation, and natural resources management

� Over 106,000 new renewable energy jobs can be created by 2030 under an ambitious “energy revolution scenario” (compared to only 7,500 in the IEA’s reference (BAU) scenario); total energy employment (including coal export jobs) would be 56 per cent higher than in the IEA reference scenario

United States � 2.7 million jobs have been created in the “clean economy” industry in recent years, mostly among low- and middle-skilled workers, in the largest US metropolitan areas

� 2 million jobs can be created by investing US$100 billion in green recovery measures – four times more than would result by spending the same amount in the oil industry

� A net gain of 1.7 million jobs (2.5 million gained in the clean energy sector, with 800,000 jobs lost in the fossil fuel industries) could result from a US$150 billion green investment programme

� A gain of 918,000 to 1.9 million jobs by 2020 is possible through appropriate climate and clean energy policies, depending on the rigours and effectiveness of the provisions

� More than 4 million full-time equivalent job-years can be created by 2030 with aggressive energy efficiency measures combined with a 30 per centRenewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) target for renewable energy; non-fossil fuel technologies create more jobs per unit of energy than coal and natural gas

Sources: Australia: Australian Conservation Foundation and Australian Council of Trade Unions: Creating jobs – cutting pollution: The roadmap for a cleaner, stronger economy (Melbourne, 2009); S. Hatfield-Dodds et al.: Growing the green collar economy: Skills and labour challenges in reducing our greenhouse gas emissions and national environment footprint (Canberra, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, 2008). Brazil: C. de Gouvello: Brazil low-carbon country: Case study (Washington, DC, World Bank, 2010). China: Global Climate Network (GCN): Low-carbon jobs in an interconnected world, GCN Discussion Paper No. 3 (2010). European Union:E. Daly, M. Pieterse and J. Medhurst: Evaluating the Potential for Green Jobs in the Next Multi-Annual Financial Framework (London, GHK, 2011); Gesellschaft für Wirtsschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS): Macroeconomic modelling of sustainable development and the links between the economy and the environment (Osnabrück, 2011); IILS: World of Work Report 2009: The global jobs crisis and beyond, op. cit.; M. S. Andersen and P. Ekins: Carbon-energy taxation: Lessons from Europe (Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2009). Germany: S. Bach et al.: “The effects of environmental fiscal reforms in Germany: A simulation study”, in Energy Policy, Vol. 30 (2002), pp. 803–811; J. Frohn et al.: Wirkungen umweltpolitischer Massnahmen: Abschätzungen mit zwei ökonometrischen Modellen (Heidelberg, Physica Verlag, 2003); Bach et al.: Die ökologische Steuerreform in Deutschland: Eine modellgestützte Analyse ihrer Wirkungen auf Wirtschaft und Umwelt (Heidelberg, 2001). Indonesia: ITUC: Growing green and decent jobs (Brussels, 2012). Republic of Korea: Global Green Growth Institute: Green growth in motion: Sharing Korea’s experience (Seoul, 2011). Lebanon: ILO: Green jobs assessment in Lebanon (Geneva, 2012). Norway: OECD: Supplemental material for Chapter 4 of the 2012 OECD Employment Outlook: Summary of country responses to the OECD questionnaire on green jobs (Paris, 2012). Mauritius: ILO: Assessing current and potential green jobs: The case of Mauritius, policy brief (Geneva, 2012). South Africa: J. Maia et al.: Green jobs: An estimate of the direct employment potential of a greening South African economy (Sandown, Industrial Development Corporation, Development Bank of South Africa, 2011); J. Rutowitz: South African energy sector jobs to 2030 (Sydney, Australia, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, 2010). United States: M. Muro et al.: Sizing the clean economy: A national and regional green jobs assessment (Washington, DC, Brookings Institution, 2011); R. Pollin et al.: Green recovery: A program to create good jobs and start building in a low-carbon economy (Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, 2008); R. Pollin, J. Heintz and H. Garett-Peltier: The economic benefits on investing in clean energy (Washington, DC, Center for American Progress, 2009); D. Roland-Holst and F. Karhl: Clean energy and climate policy for US growth and job creation (Berkeley, University of California, 2009); M. Wei et al.: “Putting renewables and energy efficiency to work: How many jobs can the clean energy industry generate in the US?”, in Energy Policy, Vol. 38 (2010), pp. 919–931.

Documents

The implications of greening industries on education