The Implications of a Pandemic Flu Outbreak On Businesses in the Global Economy Gayle Jacobs Global PRC Associates, LLC

The Implications of a Pandemic Flu

Outbreak On Businesses

in the Global Economy

Gayle JacobsGlobal PRC Associates, LLC

Overview

• A Flu Pandemic as a Political Risk

• Effects of a Pandemic on the Global

Economy

• Impacts on Companies in West Michigan

• What Are Other Businesses Doing?

– Case Study: The Intel Corporation

• Looking Ahead: The Next Steps

A Flu Pandemic and Political Risk

• Background on Political Risk

• Businesses face risk on political, economic and sociological levels • Present clashes in Lebanon disrupting UPS shipments• Terrorism and kidnapping on BP-Shell oil pipelines in

Nigeria• SARS outbreak in 2003

A transnational health pandemic would have far greater

reach and impact on the global economy than anyone war, embargo or natural disaster.

Effects on the Global Economy

The flow of goods and services thrives with fluid

borders. It is greatly impacted by variables such

as market demand, logistics networks, the international banking system, technology and

atthe root of it all, people.

What does this mean for your business?

Critical Factors

Workforce Shortages of 30-40%

(Precautionary)Border Restrictions

Affecting Critical ImportsOr Sales/Exports Overseas

Major Swings in Demand(Ex: Medical EquipmentSales, Consumer Goods)

Dramatic Changes to Your Business Operations

Logistics: Trucking,

UPS, FedEx

Mfg PlantsFactories

Call CentersRetail

Operations,Stores

The Domino Effect

A supply shortagecauses a disruption

to production

Related goods

cannot be produced

Families lose abilityto earn income when

wage earners stayhome due to child

care, fear or illness

Schools close and parents can no

longer go to work(at electric company,

factory, etc.)

Ripple effectis felt in otherindustries, andit compounds

Consumers cannot pay

bills for utilities and other goods

Businesses unable tocollect

revenuesto pay their

obligations

Michigan’s Role in International Trade:

$37 billion in 2005 Exports

Source: The Office of Trade and Industry Information (OTII), Manufacturing and Services, International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.

World Total: $37,584,052

Partner Amount

Canada 22,633,157

Mexico 4,193,399

Japan 1,070,898

Germany 1,056,962

UK 715,931

China 697,860

Austria 591,512

France 478,730

South Korea 464,907

Belgium 442,777

Brazil 404,462

Saudi Arabia 396,193

Netherlands 385,685

Australia 369,631

Venezuela 357,334

(In Thousands of USD)

Michigan’s Top 15

Export Markets

………

What Other Businesses Are Doing

A Case Study: Intel Corporation

Intel Corporation, the world leader in silicon innovation, has nearly 100,000 employees in

199countries. Their 2005 revenues were $38.8

Billion.

After the SARS outbreak in 2003 which cost thelives of several of their colleagues in Asia, they

aren’t taking any chances with an Avian Flu Pandemic

Threat.

A Case Study: The Intel Corporation

• Design Responses Around Each Level of the 6-phaseThreat Scale

• Organize Cross-Functional teams (Preparedness, Regional Response, Travel, Threat Assessment, Corporate Emergency Operations Center)

• Start Hygiene Campaign For the Work Place Including Educational Materials and Hand Sanitizer Pumps

• Establish Corporate Communication Lines (especially for expatriates) and a Medical Triage Contact Number

• Create System to Track Cases of Illness and Severity

The WHO Global Influenza Scale

Source: World Health Organization


Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6

Current Additional Actions

• Activate Management Review Committee/ Task Force Planning Team/ Regional Teams• Designate a Centralized Communications Coordinator• Promotional Campaign for Good Hygiene practices

– Install hand gel dispensers – Ensure adequate supply of N95 respirators for employees

• Assist medical personnel to get Tamiflu “prescription” pre-written [Intel is not stockpiling medication]• Order N95 Respirators•Encourage regular flu vaccines• Promote additional food safety practices • Stockpile disinfectants and review cleaning protocols• Control bird roosting areas at facilities

• Start 2X daily building disinfection • Implement phone-based triage & medical case management for symptom review & contact tracing• Employee and contractor self-screening tool distribution in affected areas • Restrict travel – General Manager sign-off required in both geographies (going to and coming from)•Ensure Medical Evacuation Protocols Understood•Implement 1 800-Hot-Line / other emergency communication procedures

• Employee/contractor temperature screening at point of entry (geo specific)• Additional disinfection procedures for clean-rooms & equipment• Distribute N95 respirators• Communicate protocols for working from home• Review procedure for closing facilities if cases occur in work environment •Additional cleaning of gowns/smocks in factories

• Aggressive communications and updates•Distribute self-care pandemic information to employees


Reproduced with permission of the Intel Corporation, Occupational Health 2006

Track and Manage Any Cases In a Case Management System


Reproduced with permission of the Intel Corporation, Occupational Health 2006

Point of Entry Temperature Screening


Above all, communicate with your work force as much as

possible.• Roles, Responsibilities and Goals for All Involved• Company Approach Toward Managing the Threat• Employee Instructions At Each Phase on the Threat

Scale• Any Situational Updates• Trigger Points • Return Policy for Expatriates Overseas• How To Stay In Touch Once Homebound or Ill• Organizational Contact List • Guiding Principles Throughout All Phases (next slide)


Guiding Principles for Intel’s Pandemic Response:

• We promote a healthy work environment • We treat people with dignity and respect

through communication and transparency • We will minimize the spread of infection by

partnering with local governments and public health organizations, such as WHO and CDC

• We will implement a staggered deployment strategy based on risk and need at each location/geography

• We will maintain business continuity by developing appropriate levels of coordination and contingency planning

Looking Ahead: The Next Steps

Utilize tools and resources from this summit

Establish a pandemic flu team

First goal: conduct an audit of implications for company

Challenge: report findings to top leadership within 2 weeks

Set measurable goals and constantly monitor progress, get buy-in from corporate level management to ensure involvement

Tier employees into layers most and least critical to operations; cross train Tier 2 and 3 staff

Hold leaders accountable for progress and compliance

Examine supplier and other external relationships and identify alternatives and back-ups

Identify where your business is most vulnerable and back up the weak points (e.g. “just in time” inventory)

You’ve heard the experts – the next pandemic is not a matter of ‘if’,

but ‘when.’

You have a lot of work to do!


Consider The Following:On the morning of September 11, 2001 approximately 19,000 employees were

workingin World Trade Center Towers 1 & 2 and 58,000 people in the entire World

TradeCenter complex. Following the plane impacts, Tower 1 stood for 103 minutes

and Tower2 stood for only 56 minutes.During that brief time, nearly 17,000 employees evacuated safely.

Casualties among building occupants numbered 2,270 (not including the 403 first responder and

157 plane passengers). Roughly 88% survived a mass exodus from two of the tallest structures in the world.

The Explanation: Consistent and regular fire drills resulted in an instinctive and orderly evacuation despite conflicting instructions and limited exit routes. WTC disaster training saved thousands of lives that day and is one of the untold success stories of that unforgettable day.


Thank You and Good Luck!

For additional copies of this presentationOr the “Looking Ahead” checklist contact:

Gayle [email protected]

(703) 585-7647

Documents

The Implications of a Pandemic Flu Outbreak On Businesses in the Global Economy Gayle Jacobs Global PRC Associates, LLC