The impacts of climate change and

subsequent extreme weather hazards on land and soils: how to manage, prevent or mitigate

them?

BERNARDO DE BERNARDINIS ITALIAN NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND RESEARCH

Milan Expo 2015

Healthy Soils for Feeding the planet and for Climate Change adaptation

EU Pavilion

20th October 2015

… from energy sources to

extreme events …

… The Earth is a restless planet. For billions of years, it has been constantly changing its physical, chemical and biological state. This is achieved by natural processes which are able to accumulate, transform and release the received solar energy …

From potential to kinetic energy

… when these natural processes go through a sequence of almost steady states we define them “normal”, but when the stored energy is abruptly released and sudden changes occur we call them “extreme” and “anomalous” events, often feeling them almost “unnatural” because of the heavy, sometime irreparable, damages caused …

However, it isn’t so and, in order to understand the real causes of the disasters and to be able to reduce them, we have to look seriously and very carefully to the connections and interactions between human activities and natural processes …

… Hurricane Katrina moved ashore over southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi early on August 29, 2005, as an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm ...

GOES image

… ATMOSPHERIC COHERENT STRUCTURES …

MSG-121 August 200606:00 UTCChannel 12 (HRV)

Po Valley

Overshooting

Top

Gravity

Waves

Kindly provided by EUMETSAT

… ATMOSPHERIC COHERENT STRUCTURES …

… MEDITERRANEAN STORMS: FRIULI V.G., 29 AGOSTO 2003 ….

… MEDITERRANEAN STORM: GENOVA, 4 NOVEMBRE 2011 …

… if we ask to the street man the reasons for all that we’ll probably receive the answer that this is due to climate change and global warming …

… CLIMATE CHANGE …

• Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).

• There is high confidence that the rate

of observed sea level rise increased from the 19th to the 20° century. The total 20th century rise is estimated to be 0.17 [0.12 to 0.22] m.

• Mountain glaciers and snow cover have

declined on average in both emispheres. Widespread decreases in glaciers and ice caps have contributed to sea level rise

… CLIMATE CHANGE …

… CLIMATE CHANGE …

… CLIMATE CHANGE …

… CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOCIOECONOMICS PROCESSES …

Emissions

… A small piece of rain forest surrounded by soybean crops on former rain forest land (Mato Grosso, Brazil, John Lee / Aurora) …

IMP

AT

TI

… LAND USE AND EMISSIONS …

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), deforestation worldwide, mostly linked to expansion of agricultural areas, is estimated to be responsible for 17.4 percent of GHG emissions. Much of this expansion into existing forests and natural areas is in the form of industrial cattle and crop production (such as soybeans, corn and palm oil) intended for export by large agribusiness to wealthier countries.

… LAND USE AND EMISSIONS …

Methane concentrations in the atmosphere did increase by a factor of 2.5 since preindustrial times, from 722 parts per billion to 1893/1762 ppb. Agriculture (mostly because the massive increase in the number of ruminants) accounts for about 47% of annual global anthropogenic emissions of CH4 .

… LAND USE AND EMISSIONS …

Production of CH4 in the soil is also associated with the anaerobic decomposition of organic matter. Because of this, the main anthropogenic source of soil-derived methane is rice (Oryza sativa L.) production (which is a important crop in Italy, as shown by this picture, in the Vercelli area, not faraway from EXPO). Natural soil-derived methane comes primarily from wetlands

… LAND USE AND CARBON STOCK …

World soils are the third largest global carbon stock behind the oceanic and the geologic carbon pool. They contain about twice as much organic carbon as the atmosphere and thrice as much as biomass (Pete Smith, 2012). Soils can be a major source or sink of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions depending on the land use and management regime. It has been estimated that agricultural ecosystems have lost 25–75% of their original soil organic carbon (SOC) pool due to the conversion of natural to agricultural ecosystems and other soil degradation processes such as erosion, salinization and nutrient depletion (Lal, 2011).

… LAND USE AND CARBON STOCK …

Soils of the world’s agroecosystems (croplands, grazing lands, rangelands) are depleted of their soil organic carbon (SOC) pool by 25–75% depending on climate, soil type, and historic management. The magnitude of loss may be 10 to 50 tons C/ha. Soils with severe depletion of their SOC pool have low agronomic yield and low use efficiency of added input. Conversion to a restorative land use and adoption of recommended management practices, can enhance the SOC pool, improve soil quality, increase agronomic productivity, advance global food security, enhance soil resilience to adapt to extreme climatic events, and mitigate climate change by off-setting fossil fuel emissions.

Decrease in yield Increase in yield

… CLIMATE CHANGE …

Sustainable intensification (SI) of agriculture entails increasing food production from existing farmland in ways that have lower environmental impact and which do not undermine our capacity to continue producing food in the future (Royal Society, 2009). Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under the new realities of climate change (Lipper et al., Nature Climate Change, 2015)

… SYNERGIES AND TRADE-OFFS BETWEEN SI AND CSA …

… SOIL EROSION …

"The threat of nuclear weapons and man's ability to destroy the environment are really alarming. And yet there are other almost imperceptible changes - I am thinking of the exhaustion of our natural resources, and especially of soil erosion - and these are perhaps more dangerous still, because once we begin to feel their repercussions it will be too late.“ (p144 of The Dalai Lama's Little Book of Inner Peace: 2002, Element Books, London)

Deposition

Transport capacity

= sediment load

Sediment

production less

than transport

capacity

Deposition because sediment production exceeds transport

capacity

Relation of deposition to transport capacity and sediment load

on a complex slope

HillslopeTransport

capacity

Sediment

load

… SOIL EROSION …

… SEA LEVEL FLUCTUATION …

The level of the sea greatly affects the coastlines of the world. In geologic time,

seas fluctuate quite often. Over the last 125,000 years, the oceans have fluctuated

over 400 feet.

Images by William Haxby. Complete information and additional model diagrams at NOVA.

This diagram

depicts the Florida

coastline 20,000

years ago when

the ocean was

400’ lower.

This predictive

model shows the

same coast with a

17’ rise in sea

level.

The same coastline with a

170’ rise in sea level.

If the Antarctica East Ice

Sheet melted, it would raise

the seas by 170’-200’.

Valuable natural resources characterized by the continue interactions between geomorphological and biological components

Their adaptation to changing conditions is highly dependent on the rate and extent of spatial and temporal processes and their

responses are still poorly understood

Key element to analyse and enhance resilience of these vulnerable ecosystems in order to increase their ability to cope with the impacts from natural hazard and to reduce the risk of

damage to human and ecological systems

...MONITORING OF RESILIENCE INDICATOR AND ESTIMATION OF INFLUENCE ON DEGRADATION ON ECOSYSTEMS …

Coastal erosion/accretion evolution trend monitoring

… from a detailed cover map of both aquatic and terrestrial environments Preferred areas

for nesting

ShapeIndex

… specific coastal sites

Natura 2000 spatial pattern indexes

TO

Coastal Subsidence

On the basis of data published by the European Environment Agency in the context of Corine Land Cover3 for the years 1990, 2000 and 2006, estimated that detected land take between 1990 and 2000 was around 1 000 km² per year in the EU – an area larger than the city of Berlin – or 275 hectares per day, and settlement areas increased by nearly 6 %. From 2000 to 2006, the rate of land take decreased slightly to 920 km² per year (252 hectares per day), while the total settlement area increased by a further 3%.

… SOIL CONSUMPTION, URBAN SPRAWL AND URBAN-RURAL TRANSITIONAL AREAS …

Copernicus EU map 20m x 20m

National map 5m x 5m (ISPRA)

… SOIL CONSUMPTION, URBAN SPRAWL AND URBAN-RURAL TRANSITIONAL AREAS …

Very High Resolution Layer

… URBAN GROWTH, URBAN SPRAWL AND SOIL SEALING IN ITALY …

Speed

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%]

… SOIL CONSUMPTION IN ITALY …

10,5%

6,5%

0% 5% 10%

< 1

0 k

m d

alla

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Anni ‘50 1989 1996 1998

2006 2009 2012

(ISPRA, 2014)

Soil sealing has important negative effects on the water cycle, reducing infiltration and evapotraspiration and increasing, up to 50-60%, the runoff.

... SOIL SEALING AND SOIL CARBON STOCKS IN ITALY (2008-2013) …

Soil sealing led to soil carbon stock loss of 5.000.000 tons, equal either to 18.000.000 tons CO2 emissions in atmosphere in 5 years ...

… or the emissions of 4.000.000 of new cars !!

... SOIL CONSUMPTION AND ALLUVIONAL PLAIN …

The European Commission has proposed getting on track to achieve no net land take by 2050.

Experts agree on the best way to protect soil: to improve land-use and urban planning and to reduce sealing.

To this end, they have agreed a three-step hierarchy of measures:

• limitation

• mitigation

• compensation

Are we protecting the soil in Europe?

While the Commission in May 2014 decided to withdraw the proposal for a Soil Framework Directive, the Seventh Environment Action Programme, which entered into force on 17 January 2014, recognizes that soil degradation is a serious challenge.

It provides that by 2020 land is managed sustainably in the Union, soil is adequately protected and the remediation of contaminated sites is well underway.

Moreover, it commits the EU and its Member States to increasing efforts to reduce soil erosion and increase soil organic matter, as well as to remediate contaminated sites.

We agree and we will support the soil sealing guidelines and the Action Programme implementation, but they are not enough and today, soil in Europe is unprotected and it is a real problem for member states like Italy.

Biological systems, including agricultural, forest and marine systems, have an intrinsic resilience and ability to adapt to changes of the environmental conditions, included climate change. However, their frequency and intensity are challenging the biological systems’ ability to adapt. In this context, it is necessary to apply a strategy to support their resilience.

Worldwide and in Italy, there are many cases that demonstrate how ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) aimed to strengthening the ecosystems’ resilience and the recovery of degraded areas, thus oriented to biodiversity protection, are more effective and economically more affordable compared to the measures based on the so-called ‘hard structures’, or ‘grey structures’.

… CONCLUSIONS AND FINAL REMARKS …

1. There is still much more to be investigated in the area of the effects of climate change on soils and lands.

2. However the results of the studies that have been done and our understanding of soil processes and properties it is possible to provide some insight into the expected effects of climate change: influence on the carbon and nitrogen cycles, which will in turn affect soil processes and fertility.

3. Soil erosion by water is expected to increase as climate changes and aeolian erosion of soils is expected to increase in dryland regions.

4. Climate change land-based mitigation options (restorative land use and adoption of recommended management practices) can enhance the SOC pool, improve soil quality, increase agronomic productivity, advance global food security, enhance soil resilience to adapt to extreme climatic events, and mitigate climate change by off-setting fossil fuel emissions.

5. climate-change mitigation and adaptation activities (projects and policies) may have negative impacts on soils and lands Environmental impact assessments (EIAs) and strategic environmental assessments (SEAs) to identify and minimize potentially harmful environmental and social impacts and enhance positive benefits (carbon storage, biodiversity conservation and improved livelihoods)

… Thanks !!! ...

BERNARDO DE BERNARDINIS ITALIAN NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND RESEARCH

Milan Expo 2015

Healthy Soils for Feeding the planet and for Climate Change adaptation

EU Pavilion

20th October 2015