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The “Impact Pathway Approach” – so called, “ExternE Methodology”
to Estimate Impacts and External Costs.Application in North Africa
Methodology, Limits, Exemplary Results
Philipp PREISS
IER, Universität Stuttgart
Aim of Methodology Basic principles - Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1: Quantification of Impacts Impacts IncludedBasic principles - Impact Pathway Approach – Part 2: Quantification of CostsAssessment of Climate ChangeExample Results – Uncertainty – Range of ResultsApplications of the ResultsSummary
Presentation Outline
Aim of the ExternE methodology: helps to take into account all externalities in
a consistent way when making decisions
- Investment decisions
- Technology Assessment (subsidies, research support)
- Consumer decisions (e.g. by adjusting prices, by internalisation of external costs)
- Cost-benefit analyses, esp. for environmental and health regulation
- Green accounting
Basic principles
1) Pressures, (e.g. emissions of substances to environmental media) have to be estimated
2) Assessment of effects/impacts (e.g. health risk), of the pressures (e.g. emissions of pollutants)
relation between pressure and impact is in general not linear and
impacts depend on time and site of pressure
“Bottom-up approach” needed for the complex pathways: the ‘Impact Pathway Approach’ (IPA)
Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1
Physical Impacts
Transport andChemical
Transformation
Pollutant / Noise Emission
Calculation is made twice: with and
without project!
Differences of Physical Impacts
Background Concentration of Prim. PM2.5 [µg/m3]
Additional Emission of 1000 t PPM2.5 in
Egypt
Delta Conc. of PPM2.5 [µg/m3]
Population Distribution
Population*Delta Conc. Accumulated Exposure
Quantification of Impacts and Costs
relation between pressure and impact
Concentration Response Function (CRF):
Example: Additional Years of Life Lost
= 6.5 · 10-5 · conc. PPM2.5 ·Population
Number of Years of Life Lost [YOLL] due to 1000 ton
emission of fine dust PPM2.5 in Egypt
in Egypt = 748
in the Northern Hemisphere = 53
in Western Europe < 0.5
YOLL Years of Life Lost due to 1000 t PPM2.5
Impacts Included (I)
Impact Cat. Pollutant / Burden Effects Human Health mortality
PM10 SO2, O3
Benzene, BaP, 1,3-butad., Diesel part., radioact.,HM Noise Accident risk
Reduction in life expectancy due to short and long time exposure Reduction in life expectancy due to short time exposure Reduction in life expectancy due to long time exposure Reduction in life expectancy due to long time exposure Fatality risk from traffic and workplace accidents
Human Health
PM10, O3, SO2 Respiratory hospital admissions
morbidity PM10, O3 Restricted activity days PM10, CO Congestive heart failure Benzene, BaP, 1,3-
butad., Diesel part.,radioact.
Cancer risk (non-fatal)
PM10 Cerebrovascular hospital admissions, cases of chronic bronchitis, cases of chronic cough in children, cough in asthmatics, lower respiratory symptoms
O3 Asthma attacks, symptom days Noise Myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, hypertension,
sleep disturbance Mercury Loss of IQ of children Accident risk Risk of injuries from traffic and workplace accidents
: PM2.5, PMco
Impacts Included (II)
Impact Cat. Pollutant / Burden Effects
Building Material
SO2, Acid deposition
Combustion particles
Ageing of galvanised steel, limestone, mortar, sand-stone, paint, rendering, and zinc for utilitarian buildings
Soiling of buildings
Crops SO2 Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, sugar beet
O3 Yield change for wheat, barley, rye, oats, potato, rice, tobacco, sunflower seed
Acid deposition Increased need for liming
N, S Fertilising effects
Global Warming
CO2, CH4, N2O World-wide effects on mortality, morbidity, coastal impacts, agriculture, energy demand, and economic impacts due to temperature change and sea level rise
Amenity losses Noise Amenity losses due to noise exposure
Ecosystems SO2, NOx, NH3 Eutrophication, Acidification
Land Use Change
‘PDF’ of species
Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1
Differences of PhysicalImpacts
Transport andChemical
Transformation
Pollutant/Noise Emission
Calculation is made twice: with and
without project!
Basic Approach of NEEDS/ExternE
Assessment of impacts is based on the (measured) preferences of the affected
and well-informed population
Basic principles - Impact Pathway Approach –
Part 2: Quantification of CostsPreferences are expressed, and
effects are transformed into monetary units:
- allows transfer of values, - units are conceivable, - direct use of results in CBA and for internalising via taxes possible.
(…however, e.g. ‘utility points’ would give the same ranking).
Impact Pathway Approach – Part 2Differences of Physical
Impacts
Transport andChemical
Transformation
MonetaryValuation
Pollutant/Noise Emission
Calculation is made twice: with and
without project!
Monetary Valuation
Health end-points Euro per case / per YOLL
Increased mortality risk (infants) 3,000,000New cases of chronic bronchitis 200,000
Increased mortality risk - YOLLacute 60,000Life expectancy reduction - YOLLchronic 40,000
Respiratory hospital admissions 2,000Cardiac hospital admissions 2,000
Work loss days (WLD) 295netto Restricted activity days (netRADs) 130
Minor restricted activity days (MRAD) 38Lower respiratory symptoms 38
LRS excluding cough 38Cough days 38
Medication use / bronchodilator use 1
Concentration Response Function:
Additional Years of Life Lost
= 6.5 · 10-5 · conc. PPM2.5 · Population
Quantified number of additional Years of Life Lost due
to one year operation : 748 YOLL
Monetary value: 40000 Euro2005 per Year of Life Lost
Damage costs per year:
748 YOLL * 40000 Euro per YOLL =
29.2 Million Euro2005
Quantification of Costs
Valuation methods for non-market goods
Stated Preferencesurveys
Indirect valuation
assesses costs or efforts that can be linked to the non-market good
• Hedonic Price Method• Averting Behavior Method• Travel Cost Method• Contingent Behavior Method• Past behaviour of public decision makers
Direct valuation
• Contingent Valuation Method (CVM)
• Attribute Based Choice Modeling (ABCM)
• Participatory approaches
• Surveys for preferences of public decision makers
Revealed Preferencebehaviour (shown in the past)
Assessment of Climate Change
I. Marginal Damage Costs
Includes the following categories: • agriculture• forestry• sea level rise• cardiovascular and respiratory disorders related to cold and heat stress• malaria• dengue fever • schistosomiasis • diarrhoea • energy consumption• water resources and • unmanaged ecosystems• Time horizon till 2300
Assessment of Climate Change
I. Marginal Damage Costs"Average, 1% trimmed“, "1% PRTP“ , “World Average Equity Weighting”
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Year of emission
Eu
ro p
er t
on
CO
2 Damage costsCO2 €2005
Assessment of Climate Change
II. Marginal Avoidance Costs"500 ppm CO2 “, “technological progress“ , “certificates-emission dealing”
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
Year of emission
Eu
ro p
er t
on
CO
2 External costsCO2 - €2005
Some exemplary results of applying the ExternE tools EcoSenseWeb
The results of the ExternE research are the functions and tools that can be applied to answer individual questions!
Results of applying the tools depend on scenario, site, time and technology!
Possibly important effects that are not (yet) included:
• Visual intrusion
• Biodiversity loss (local, however included in Environmental Impact Study)
• Risk of nuclear proliferation and terrorism
• Risk aversion resp. treatment of Damocles risks
Quantified External Costs [Euro-Cent / kWh] of a Coal Fired Power Station (steam turbine)
0
1
2
3
4
[Eur
o-C
ent /
kW
h]
NMVOC
PM10
NOx
SO2
CO2eq
External Costs of Different Technologies [Euro-Cent / kWh] 19 Euro/t CO2, YOLLchronic = 40000 Euro
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
WECOffshore
Hydro PWR,reproc
PV sc-Si Naturalgas-CC
ORC-HKW
PAFC Lignite,IGCC
Coal,IGCC
Coal PFB
Ext
ern
al c
ost
s [E
uro
-Cen
t / k
Wh
]
Health impacts Crops Material Climate change
Sites in Germany;
2010 technologies!
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
WECOffshore
Hydro PWR,reproc
PV sc-Si Naturalgas-CC
ORC-HKW
PAFC Lignite,IGCC
Coal,IGCC
Coal PFB
Ext
ern
al C
ost
s [E
uro
-Cen
t / k
Wh
]
Health impacts
Crops Material Climate change
External Costs of Power Stations [Euro-Cent / kWh]Assuming 50 Euro/t CO2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
WECOffshore
Hydro PWR,reproc
PV sc-Si Naturalgas-CC
ORC-HKW
PAFC Lignite,IGCC
Coal,IGCC
Coal PFB
Ext
ern
al C
ost
s [E
uro
-Cen
t / k
Wh
]
Health impacts Crops Material Climate change
Quantification of Externalities of Heat SupplyCB=condensing boiler, MFH=multi family house, OFM=one family house
0
1
2
3
4
Gas-CB OFH
Solar-Gas-CBOFH
Gas-CB MFH
Fuel oil-LTMFH
Wood chipsMFH
Ext
ern
al C
ost
s [E
uro
/ G
J]
Health others GHG
External Costs [Euro / ton] of Emission Results Europe Results North Africa
05000
100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000
No
rwa
y
Ne
the
rlan
ds
EU
27
Mo
rocc
o
Alg
eria
Tu
nis
ia
Lib
ya
Eg
ypt
[Eu
ro p
er t
on
]
NH3
NOX
PPMco
PPM25
SO2
Applications of the IPA/ExternE Results
European Union:Energy: justification for promoting and subsidizing renewable energy; recommended cap on subsidies for renewables
Transport: cost-benefit analysis mandatory for all major infrastructure projects; planned to levy tolls according to infrastructure and external costs
Environmental Protection: Cost-benefit analysis for all recently implemented directives for Air Pollution Control:e.g. Non-Hazardeous Waste Incineration Directive, Large Combustion Plant Directive, National Emissions Ceilings Directive, Daughter Directives to Air Quality Directive: ozone, CO and benzene UN: cost-benefit analysis for the UN/ECE multi-pollutant multi-effect protocol
Summary• The ExternE methodology estimates effects of
technologies for energy conversion and assesses them based on preferences of the effected population for a large number of impact pathways.
• The methodology is already widely used for decision aid in the fields of energy conversion, transport and environmental protection.
• Gaps and uncertainties exist, however will be more and more reduced due to ongoing research (e.g. on dispersion models for Africa, pathways involving toxic substances, heavy metals, biodiversity, water and soil contamination…)
• More information ExternE: www.ExternE.info • Tool EcoSenseWeb:
www.EcoSenseWeb.ier.uni-stuttgart.de