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1 The EU Ban on Inefficient Lamps An Analysis of It’s Impact and Repercussions July 2009 Akhil Sivanandan Research Analyst, Environment and Building Technologies

The Impact of the EU Ban on Energy Efficient Lighting

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A short market insight on how the ban on incandescent lighting is going to effect the lamp market; in particular the CFL and LED illumination markets.

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Page 1: The Impact of the EU Ban on Energy Efficient Lighting

1

The EU Ban on Inefficient Lamps

An Analysis of It’s Impact and Repercussions

July 2009

Akhil Sivanandan

Research Analyst,

Environment and

Building Technologies

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Disclaimer

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No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.

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Certification

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Phasing out incandescent lamps in the EU

In February 2009, the EC decided to implement a planned phase out of inefficient forms of lighting for general illumination

purposes. This resolution is mainly targeted at phasing out incandescent lamps starting 2009, but will over the course of a 7

year period encompass other forms of lighting.

This article is intended to deal with the first two phases of the directive. It tries to give an explanation on:

•The major technologies impacted.

•The current and future strategies likely to be adopted by market participants in dealing with this.

•Medium and long term implications of the ban.

The main pieces of legislation that will impact the market during this time are:

• The first two phases of the ban on clear and non-clear lamps that will be implemented from September 2009 onwards. The latter phases are still unclear as they will be modified post 2014.

• Directive on the restriction of the use of certain hazardous substances in electrical and electronic equipment: 2002/95/EC (RoHS directive).

• Directive on the energy performance of buildings: 2002/91/EC (EPBD).• Eco-design of Energy-using Products: Directive 2005/32/EC (EuP).

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The Current Situation

• A look at the current lighting scenario shows a mature incandescent market outselling energy efficient

technologies like compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) and light emitting diodes (LEDs).

• However, the CFL and LED markets are both growing at a higher rate. The increasing efficiency of these

products helps sustain growth.

• Costs of these products have also been dropping, making them more accessible to the consumer.

Growth

Eff

icie

ncy

Incandescent

CFL

LED

Size of bubble is indicative of market size.

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Lamps Market: Current Market Scenario (Europe), 2009

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Phasing out inefficient lighting:The Roadmap

2008 20102009 2011 2012

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 4Stage 3

Incandescent and all

halogens which don’t

have A rating

discontinued.

CFLs and LEDs with A

rating allowed. Second level functionality

requirements and Review

Only clear lamps with low voltage halogen

with integrated or non-integrated

transformers reaching

class B allowed. Other regulations as decided

in stage 5

Source: Frost & Sullivan; European Commission

2013 2014 2016

Stage 5 Stage 6

Initial Draft.

Consumers and

market

participants

notified

Energy labelling

requirement for

all lamps

Incandescent/

conventional

halogen >

100W below C

discontinued

Incandescent

/conventional

halogen >

75W below C

discontinued

Incandescent

/conventional

halogen >

60W below C

discontinued

All

Incandescent

/conventional

halogen

below C

discontinuedB & C Halogens

allowed

Clear lamps

Non-Clear lamps

Notable exceptions:

Fluorescent lamps without integrated ballasts,

HID lamps

Legislative Roadmap for Phasing out Inefficient Lighting (Europe)

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Roadmap Explanation

The EU has set 2 different targets for clear and non-clear omni-directional lamps. It should be noted that legislation covering

directional lamps (i.e. – those with at least 80% of light output concentrated in a solid angle less than 120 degrees) is

currently in the works and should come into play when new energy labels are implemented post 2012. A staged entry format

is there for these targets in order to give manufacturers time to redesign or develop their products.

For non-clear lamps:

• The phase out will be more gradual. From September 2009 onwards, lamps greater than 100W with ratings less than C

(i.e. D,E,F and G) will be discontinued. All lower wattage lamps of F&G class will be phased out so only E class lamps

remain.

• From September 2010 onwards, lamps greater than 75W below C class will be discontinued. The wattage is decreased

every year as per the diagram until by 2012, all lamps (incandescent/halogen) below C class are discontinued.

From 2013 onwards, the levels will be made progressively stricter, thereby phasing out all incandescent lamps. The second

level functional requirements will come into being, also new technologies and labeling schemes will also come under review.

For clear lamps:

• The minimum standards for clear lamps will come into complete effect from September 2009.

• All clear lamps which do not have an A rating under current eco-design ratings are to be banned from sale in stores

unless they are for special illumination purposes. This will effectively stop sales of all incandescent and low efficiency

halogen lamps.

• The lamps used for special illumination purposes will have to be labeled as such, clearly marking their specific purpose

and functionality as per EU guidelines as well as noting that they are not suitable for household illumination.

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Impact on the Incandescent lamp market

Immediate effect – Shift from general

illumination to specialist applications for

incandescent.

2008 2010 2012 2016

Long term: 2 paths are possible.

Scenario 1: Complete replacement

by CFLs, LEDs or other

technologies (like improved halogen)

in all aspects.

Scenario 2: Continued development

and need of incandescent in

specialist applications.

The legislation is slightly misleading as far as the impact on incandescent lamps is concerned.

It does not outright ban the technology of incandescent lamps, but only those ones which are

used for general illumination and cannot meet the efficiency rating criteria (which most can’t).

Other technology (halogen, long fluorescent etc.)

LED

CFL

Incandescent

Lig

hting M

ark

et

Share

(%)

0

100100

0

100

0

100

Lamps Market: Current and Future Trends (Europe), 2009

Source: Frost & Sullivan

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Impact on the CFL market

• Immediate application space for CFLs is in the residential sector. Over the span of the new legislation, it will gain

greater market size in both residential and non-residential sectors as it begins to replace incandescent lamps.

• High growth in the initial years as apart from long fluorescent lamps, CFLs are the only major alternative to

incandescent lamps, especially for residential applications. This will decrease over time due to competing technologies

and market saturation.

• The problem of mercury content will be regulated by the RoHS (if unregulated, mercury emissions would increase from

2.9 tonnes in 2007 to 3.1 tonnes by 2020). However, continuing evolution of the technology might remove this problem

altogether. From stage 2 onwards, it will be a maximum of 1.23 mg of mercury for each CFL.

2008 2012 2016

Gro

wth

Size of bubble is indicative of market size.

Source: Frost & Sullivan

CFL Market: Current and Future trends (Europe), 2009

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Impact on the LED market

Current scenario:

�More than 90% of revenues for illumination comes from customised projects and solutions for commercial applications.

�LEDs for illumination are classified as A class, but do not have significant volumes to warrant closer evaluation.

Short term scenario:

�Not much change in status quo over the next few years. Gradual shift to main stream will take place.

Long term scenario:

�Majority of revenues from off the shelf solutions through retailers rather than customised solutions.

�Establishment as a mainstream technology.

2008 2012 2016

Retail revenues

Customised solution revenues

Size of bubble is indicative of market size.

Source: Frost & Sullivan

LED Market: Current and Future trends (Europe), 2009

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Conclusions

• Incandescent technology will either be phased out completely or will have very niche

applications in the short term.

• The main succeeding technology will be CFLs and to an extent long fluorescent lamps

like T5s. This holds true for both the short and the long term.

• LED lighting is still mainly for bespoke applications in the commercial sector. Large

increases in penetration for the residential sector will not happen in the short term.

• Manufacturers with greater experience in the new technologies will have greater success

rates due to established reputations and an increased distribution base.

• Stricter quality control measures after the first two stages will also play in favour of

established manufacturers who will be better positioned to upgrade and improve their

products.

• Climate change legislation will also play a part. Partnerships with utility firms and other

vested interests could boost market image and thus increase market penetration for new

technologies and for manufacturers.

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12

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Page 14: The Impact of the EU Ban on Energy Efficient Lighting

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