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The Impact of Smartphones on Mobile Data NetworksThe Impact of Smartphones on Mobile Data Networks
Elisabeth RaingeResearch Vice PresidentMay 11, 2011
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Thinking SmarterThinking Smarter
2
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
AgendaAgenda
State of the industry
Operational challenges
The IP Network Management Experience
Analytics
Essential guidance
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 4
IDCIDC
Corporate Over 45 years old In over 110 countries Over 1000 analysts: global, regional, local Broad customer base: IT professionals, vendors, investment
community Privately held subsidiary of IDG
Elisabeth Rainge, Research Vice President Lead NGN Operations research Over 15 years at IDC in Boston, San Mateo & metro-NYC Started coverage of OSS/BSS (2000), Network Test (1998),
ATCA (2004-2005), IMS (2005), Telecom Analytics (2007)
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 5
Many Hidden DynamicsMany Hidden Dynamics
ServicesRevenue New revenue
Broadband, Quad play, Applications,Managed services
Operational & Capital Costs
$
Time
Marginimproved
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 6
TELECOMS/ICT
TRANS-PORT
RETAIL
MANUF-ACTURING
GOVERN-MENT
ENERGY
FINANCIAL
HEALTHLOGISTICS
Building a Platform Upon Which Industries Can Build Their BusinessesBuilding a Platform Upon Which Industries Can Build Their Businesses
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Telecom Industry GrowthTelecom Industry Growth
7
821867
3,1992,838
312280
+11%
+13%
-5%
20092008
$697$734 $754$739
+2%
-5%
20092008
Wireless RevenueWireline RevenueWireline access lines
Wireless connectionsBroadband connections
Connections (millions) Revenues ($ billions)
Source: IDC Carriertrak, Jan 10, 2011
WW telecommunications market = $1.46 trillion
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 8
Worldwide: Top 25 Telecom Groups by Total Revenue ($ million, Q4 2009)Worldwide: Top 25 Telecom Groups by Total Revenue ($ million, Q4 2009)
Source:/Notes:
Teliasonera $3,915Korea Telecom $4,050
Telmex $4,167Bell Canada $4,507
Time Warner Cable $4,532KPN $4,943
China Unicom $5,708Telemar Norte Leste S.A $6,645
China Telecom $7,614America Movil $7,689
Softbank $7,749Sprint $7,868
British Telecom $8,482Comcast $9,067
KDDI $9,600Telecom Italia $10,352
Vodafone $16,417China Mobile $17,845
DT $20,8935. Telefonica $21,301
4. Verizon $27,0913. France Telecom $27,679
2. NTT $28,2931. AT&T $30,858
Latin
12%
Europe 32%
Asia
32%
N. Amer24%
Geographic Distribution ofTop 25 by HQ Location
CEMA32%
Latin4%
Europe24%
Asia20%
N. Amer
20%
Geographic Distribution ofSecond 25 by HQ Location
US Cable TV companies are big telecom players #11-Comcast, #20-Time Warner Cable
Source: IDC Carriertrak, Jan 10, 2011
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 9
Worldwide: Top 25 Telecom Groups by Wireless Revenue ($ million, Q4 2009)Worldwide: Top 25 Telecom Groups by Wireless Revenue ($ million, Q4 2009)
Source:/Notes:
Vimplecom $1,946Telenor $1,982
Korea Telecom $2,106Qatar Telecom $2,265
Teliasonera $2,379SK TEL $2,379
MTS $2,397Saudi Tel $2,409
KPN $2,613China Unicom $2,719Telecom Italia $3,103
Zain $3,287MTN $3,769
Softbank $4,810Sprint $6,816
America Movil $7,224KDDI $7,387
DT $10,870NTT $11,433
France Telecom $12,0095. Telefonica $13,100
4. AT&T $13,8173. Vodafone $14,749
2. Verizon $15,7321. China Mobile $17,691
WW wireless market = $754 billion
Single country operators– US: AT&T, Verizon, Sprint– Japan: NTT, KDDI, Softbank– China: China Mobile, China Unicom– Korea: SKTel, Korea Telecom
Multi-country operators– Europe: VF, Telefonica, FT, DT, TI,
KPN, Teliasonera, Telenor– Latin: America Movil– CEE: Vimpelcom– MEA: MTN, Zain, Saudi Tel, Qatar Tel,
Source: IDC Carriertrak, Jan 10, 2011
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Worldwide: Top 25 Telecom Groups by Wireless Subscriptions Growth (%, Q4 2009)Worldwide: Top 25 Telecom Groups by Wireless Subscriptions Growth (%, Q4 2009)
10
10%10%
13%14%16%16%17%18%19%19%21%22%22%
25%27%
31%31%34%35%35%
46%55%56%58%
63%2. Tata Teleservices Maharastra
3. Aditya Birla Group/IDEA
1. Telemar Norte Leste/Oi
Leap Wireless
4. Reliance Communications5. Bharti Airtel
MTN
PLDTTelecom Argentina
VimplecomAmerica Movil
KPNTelefonica
Hutchison WhampoaMetro PCS
Qatar TelecomVerizon
TracfoneMTNL
VodafoneTeliasonera
AxiataZain
China MobileMegafon
Source: IDC Carriertrak, Jan 10, 2011
India is fastest growing mobile market. Indian operators – Tata, IDEA, Reliance, Bharti, are 4 of the top 5 fastest growing operators.
– Bharti Airtel is largest Indian mobile operator with 143 million subscribers at Sept 30, 2010. In July 2010, Bharti completed acquisition of Zain Group in July 2010, with 40 million subscribers in Africa.
Telemar Norte Leste is an integrated Brazilian operator using the brand name Oi.
– The growth rate reflects the 2009 acquisition of Brazil Telecom. In Sept 2008, Oi had 22 million mobile subs and BrT had 5.3 million mobile subs
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Worldwide: Top 25 Telecom Groups by Wireline Broadband Subscriptions (thousands, Q4 2009)
Worldwide: Top 25 Telecom Groups by Wireline Broadband Subscriptions (thousands, Q4 2009)
11
2,5422,5562,5682,6662,6822,8122,8673,4533,8473,9083,9704,211
6,5246,9537,0008,0449,2209,289
3. NTT2. China Unicom
1. China Telecom
Korea TelecomTelecom Italia
Time Warner Cable
Telemar Norte Leste S.A
Softbank
British Telecom
Telmex
Telstra
Verizon
SK BroadbandSwisscom
Bell Canada EnterprisesQwest
KPNCHT
CablevisionRogers
Teliasonera
21,68415,93015,789
53,46038,550
24,6394. France Telecom
5. ComcastAT&T
Telefonica 12,884
Source: IDC Carriertrak, Jan 10, 2011
• 2009 WW broadband subscriptions = 312 million.
• China market is 29% of world broadband market.
• US is 18% of world broadband subscriptions.
• Comcast, a US cable TV operator, ranks #5 in the world, ahead of AT&T.
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Communications Industry Value ChainCommunications Industry Value Chain
1212
BUSINESS
CONSUMER
Regulation
Hard- and software network
infrastructure
Devices Apps and content
= segments where operators enjoy greatest power
Device vendors
Telecom
industry vendors
Luxury brands
VNOs Content provider
Web firms
Software firms
Advertising
System integrators
Voice and data traffic transport
Sales, marketing and branding
Customer service and
advice
Source: IDC
Device vendors IT
vendors
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
DevicesDevices
13
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Worldwide Media Tablet Forecast 2011-2015Worldwide Media Tablet Forecast 2011-2015
14
Source: Worldwide and U.S. Media Tablet 2011–2015 Forecast, IDC# 227941, April 2011
About 90% ConsumerAbout 33% US in 20113G$ Less than 20%
About 90% ConsumerAbout 33% US in 20113G$ Less than 20%
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Worldwide PC Forecast 2008-2015Worldwide PC Forecast 2008-2015
15
Source: Worldwide PC 2011–2015 Forecast, IDC# 227779, April 2011
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast 2011-2015Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast 2011-2015
16
Source: Worldwide Mobile Phone 2011–2015 Forecast and Analysis, IDC# 227361, March 2011
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Worldwide Smartphone Forecast 2011-2015Worldwide Smartphone Forecast 2011-2015
17
Source: Worldwide Smartphone 2011–2015 Forecast and Analysis, IDC# 227367, March 2011
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 18
Putting the pieces together:
Context
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Operations increasingly cross functional teamsOperations increasingly cross functional teams
Network Business UnitsITFinance Legal
Sales, Retail, etc. . . .
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 20
Analytics in Telecom: Company wideAnalytics in Telecom: Company wide
Marketing Customers, products
IT BSS, ERP applications
Network Network engineering
Distribution Retail
Finance Revenue Assurance
Legal & regulatory Data retention
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 21
IDC Decision Management Model: Telecom IndustryIDC Decision Management Model: Telecom Industry
Source:/Notes:Level of uncertainty
Num
ber of Decisions
Degree of Automation
Leve
l of C
olla
bora
tion
Scope of Decision
HIGH
HIGHLOW
LOW
Operational(Policy Hub)
Strategic
Tactical
Source: IDC, 2010
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 22
IDC Decision Management Model: Telecom IndustryIDC Decision Management Model: Telecom Industry
Source:/Notes:Level of uncertainty
Num
ber of Decisions
Degree of Automation
Leve
l of C
olla
bora
tion
Scope of Decision
HIGH
HIGHLOW
LOW
Operational(Policy Hub)
Strategic
Tactical Capacity,Inventory &
Service Balancing
CustomerOffer Acquisition
Decisions
CustomerSegmentation
Strategies
NetworkCoverage
PromotionExecution
FinancialTargets
ServiceDesign
ContentPartnerships
PromotionalPlan
Network & ITOutsourcingDecisions
NetworkDesign
RevenueAssurance
Source: IDC, 2010
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Getting to Business OutcomesGetting to Business Outcomes
Policy
Charging
Mediation
Subscriber DataManagement Business
Outcomes:
IntelligenceOpportunitiesDiscrepancies
Data Integration
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 24
Mobile App Developer SurveyMobile App Developer Survey
2,363 App Developers
38% are Independents
43% in North America
38% in Europe
13% in Asia/Pacific
5% in Latin America
Repeated Quarterly
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 25
Mobile App Developer Survey ResultsMobile App Developer Survey Results
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 26
Mobile App Developer Survey ResultsMobile App Developer Survey Results
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 27
Mobile App Developer Survey ResultsMobile App Developer Survey Results
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 28
PartneringPartnering
Source:/Notes:
LargeEnterprises
Small-MediumBusinesses
Consumers
Partner
TheService
Account Management
Online
Contact centre
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Network AnalyticsNetwork Analytics
Network analytics is emerging from:
IT industry analytics
Big data (information management, Hadoop)
Changed competitive environment
Changed usage, with “smarter” changes likely
Divergence of customer satisfaction and infrastructure performance
29
The age of marketing is here:Shaping perceptions is essential
Data is a tool
The age of marketing is here:Shaping perceptions is essential
Data is a tool
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
Supplier (NEP, Test, Network Mgmt) Use Cases
Supplier (NEP, Test, Network Mgmt) Use Cases
End user use casesEnd user use cases
Network processor cardsNetwork processor cards
“DPI” Traffic shaping systems
“DPI” Traffic shaping systems
Ecosystem: DraftEcosystem: Draft
30
Packet CapturePacket Capture
Network Performance Monitoring
Intrusion Detection
Web/App Performance Monitoring
Network Data Probe (Collector)
Network Traffic Monitor
Network InspectionNetwork
InspectionNetwork AdaptersNetwork Adapters
Packet Capture Adapters
Packet Capture Adapters
Network Test Tools: Traffic Generators
Network Test Tools: Traffic Generators
Network Tap (inline)
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
DevicesDevices
31
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 32
The Personalized Communication Imperative The Personalized Communication Imperative
Customer loyalty
Technology advancements
Business models
Usage models
Jun-11© 2009 IDC
My Home Is My CastleMy Home Is My Castle
33
Jun-11© 2009 IDC 34
Essential GuidanceEssential Guidance
Smartphones drive the information management challenge
Exploiting existing sources > creating new sources
Customer experience improvements are top
Consider the intelligence challenge
Empowering relationships by being smarter:
Subscribers
Business partners
Suppliers
The new network management is here
