“The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the European Stock Market (1998-2008): A Sector Analysis,” by Mohamed El Hédi Arouri

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  • 8/3/2019 The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the European Stock Market (1998-2008): A Sector Analysis, by Mohamed El H

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    TBE OKU\GNC KA EGE\@]

    NGD DEQECKVJEGT

    Jkbnjed Ec Bdm N|ku|m#

    Tbe Mjvnht ka Kmc V|mhe Xbkhix kg tbe Eu|kveng

    Xtkhi Jn|iet ">==2*

    ppp'mheed'k|`

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  • 8/3/2019 The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the European Stock Market (1998-2008): A Sector Analysis, by Mohamed El H

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    hkgxuje| hkgamdeghe# eth'- ngd tbeg tbe} n|e naaehted l} jnh|kehkgkjmh eqegtx

    tbnt vkxxmlc} hng le mgacueghed l} kmc xbkhix' Tbux# kmc v|mhe hbng`ex jn} mjvnht

    xtkhi v|mhex'

    Mg tbe cmte|ntu|e# tbe|e bnx leeg n cn|`e qkcuje ka pk|ix kg tbe cmgin`ex le*

    tpeeg kmc v|mhex ngd ehkgkjmh qn|mnlcex' Jkxt ka tbexe xtudmex bnqe xbkpg xm`*gmamhngt eaaehtx ka kmc v|mhe acuhtuntmkgx kg ehkgkjmh nhtmqmt} ak| xeqe|nc deqeckved

    ngd eje|`mg` hkugt|mex'> Mg hkgt|nxt# tbe|e bnqe leeg |ecntmqec} aep nttejvtx tk

    xtud} tbe |ecntmkgxbmv letpeeg kmc v|mhe qn|mntmkgx ngd xtkhi jn|ietx'

    Tbe vmkgee|mg` vnve| l} H' Okgex ngd @' Inuc textx tbe |enhtmkg ka xtkhi |etu|gx

    mg deqeckved jn|ietx "Hngndn# Onvng# tbe Ugmted Img`dkj# ngd tbe Ugmted Xtntex-

    tk kmc v|mhe acuhtuntmkgx kg tbe lnxmx ka tbe xtngdn|d hnxb ackp dmqmdegd qncuntmkg

    jkdec'< Tbe} amgd tbnt ak| tbe Ugmted Xtntex ngd Hngndn tbmx |enhtmkg hng le

    nhhkugted ak| egtm|ec} l} tbe mjvnht ka tbe kmc xbkhix kg hnxb ackpx' Tbe |exuctx ak|

    Onvng ngd tbe Ugmted Img`dkj# bkpeqe|# pe|e mghkghcuxmqe' Uxmg` ng ug|ext|mhted

    qehtk| nutk|e`|exxmqe "QN\-# \' Bung` et nc' amgd gk eqmdeghe ka n |ecntmkgxbmv

    letpeeg kmc v|mhex ngd tbe X!V "Xtngdn|d ! Vkk|x- 566 jn|iet mgder'8

    V' Xndk|xi}# l} hkgt|nxt# nvvcmex ng ug|ext|mhted QN\ pmtb @N\HB eaaehtx tk U'X'

    jkgtbc} dntn ngd xbkpx n xm`gmamhngt |ecntmkgxbmv letpeeg kmc v|mhe hbng`ex ngd

    n``|e`nte xtkhi |etu|gx mg tbe U'X' jn|iet'4 O' Vn|i ngd \' \nttm xbkp tbnt kmc

    v|mhex bnqe n ge`ntmqe mjvnht kg xtkhi |etu|gx mg tbe Ugmted Xtntex ngd mg ># >==2 tk Gkqejle| >8# < Eu|kveng xehtk| mgdmhex? "n-

    nutkjklmce ngd vn|tx# "l- amgnghmncx# "h- akkd ngd leqe|n`ex# "d- kmc ngd `nx# "e-

    benctb hn|e# "a- mgduxt|mncx# "`- lnxmh jnte|mncx# "b- ve|xkgnc ngd bkuxebkcd `kkdx#

    "m- hkgxuje| xe|qmhex# "o- tehbgkck`}# "i- tecehkjjugmhntmkgx# ngd "c- utmcmtmex'

    Xtkhi jn|iet dntn n|e kltnmged a|kj tbe DntnXt|enj dntnlnxe'

    Ak| kmc# pe uxe tbe peeic} L|egt kmc h|ude v|mhe kltnmged a|kj tbe Ege|`}Mgak|jntmkg Ndjmgmxt|ntmkg "EMN-' Pe erv|exx L|egt kmc v|mhex mg eu|kx uxmg`

    erhbng`e |ntex a|kj DntnXt|enj'

    KMC V\MHE XBKHIX ! EU\KVENG XTKHI JN\IETX >10

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    Mg k|de| tk dete|jmge tbe k|de| ka mgte`|ntmkg ka ku| xe|mex# pe nvvc} tb|ee

    xtngdn|d ugmt |kkt textx? nu`jegted Dmhie}*Aucce| "NDA-# Vbmccmvx*Ve||kg "VV-#

    ngd Ipmntikpxim et nc' "IVXX- textx' Tbe NDA ngd VV textx n|e lnxed kg tbe gucc

    b}vktbexmx ka n ugmt |kkt# pbmce tbe IVXX text hkgxmde|x tbe gucc ka gk ugmt |kkt'

    \exuctx n|e |evk|ted mg tnlce >' Ncc tbe xe|mex nvven| tk le mgte`|nted ka k|de| kge#pbmhb mx n xtngdn|d |exuct mg tbe cmte|ntu|e ak| xuhb xe|mex'

    Dexh|mvtmqe xtntmxtmhx ak| |etu|g xe|mex "am|xt ck`n|mtbjmh dmaae|eghex- n|e xuj*

    jn|mzed mg tnlce >'42/l

    *>2'85/l

    6'62h

    DO Xtkrr *6'82l

    *6'1/l

    *4h

    6'10//h

    */d

    6'85/h

    Akkd ! leqe|n`ex 6'48l

    *4/h

    *>5'54/l

    *8=h

    Benctb hn|e 6'6*ve|hegt ceqec9 // : mgdmhntex xm`gmamhnghe ka

    hkeaamhmegtx nt tbe 5*ve|hegt ceqec9 ngd /// : mgdmhntex xm`gmamhnghe ka hkeaamhmegtx nt tbe >6*ve|hegt

    ceqec'lJkdec pmtbkut hkgxtngt k| dete|jmgmxtmh t|egd'hJkdec pmtb hkgxtngt pmtbkut dete|jmgmxtmh t|egd'dJkdec pmtb hkgxtngt ngd dete|jmgmxtmh t|egd'

    TBE OKU\GNC KA EGE\@] NGD DEQECKVJEGT>12

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    `|kptb ngd en|gmg`x' Tbe kmc ngd `nx xehtk| bnx tbe bm`bext hk||ehtmkg pmtb kmc

    "88 ve|hegt-# akcckped l} lnxmh jnte|mncx ">< ve|hegt-' Hk||ecntmkgx letpeeg tbe

    Eu|kveng jn|iet mgder "DO Xtkrr 166- ngd xehtk| |etu|gx n|e bm`b kg nqe|n`e' Tbe

    ve|xkgnc ngd bkuxebkcd `kkdx xehtk| bnx tbe bm`bext hk||ecntmkg "=0 ve|hegt-

    ngd akkd ngd leqe|n`ex tbe ckpext "50 ve|hegt-'

    Ejvm|mhnc Ngnc}xmx

    Pe mgqextm`nte tbe |ecntmkgxbmvx letpeeg kmc v|mhe qn|mntmkgx ngd xtkhi jn|iet

    |etu|gx mg Eu|kve kqe| tbe cnxt tu|lucegt dehnde ka >==2*'81 6'>6 >'66

    DO Xtkrr *6'6< '66 6'>6

    Nutkjklmce ! vn|tx 6'6< 4'8< 6'54 >2'26 5=86'> *6'6< 6'10

    Amgnghmncx *6'6= 8'2 *6'5< 4'11 =>'8> 6'88 6'18

    Benctb hn|e 6'6> '1 6'>6 6'=>

    Lnxmh jnte|mncx 6'61 8'84 *6'=6 0'6< 45='5 6'>< 6'01

    Ve|xkgnc !

    bkuxebkcd

    `kkdx 6'64 > 5'1< *6'

    Tecehkjjugmhntmkgx *6'6> 8'18 *6'60 4'6> 8'62 1=

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    |mt : n ) l 8 |kmcut ) h 8 |dom

    6t ) d8 |m9t> ) emt >

    emt .G 69 bmt

    b

    lie )Rv

    c:>

    `cb

    pbe|e|mt mx tbe peeic} xtkhi |etu|g mg hkugt|} m9

    |kmcut mx ng ugervehted hbng`e mg tbe kmc v|mhe jenxu|ed nx tbe dmaae|eghe le*

    tpeeg tbe klxe|qed kmc v|mhe ngd tbe ervehted qncue ka kmc v|mhe uxmg` ng N\">-

    v|khexx9|do6

    t|ev|exegtx tbe pk|cd jn|iet |etu|gx amcte|ed l} tbe kmc v|mhe |etu|gx' Jk|e

    v|ehmxec}# |do6t mx tbe |exmduncx ka tbe k|dmgn|} cenxt x~un|ex "KCX- |e`|exxmkg ka tbe

    pk|cd jn|iet |etu|gx "\dot- kg tbe kmc v|mhe hbng`ex "|kmct-? |dot :n)l|kmct ) |do6t '

    Tbe |etu|g mggkqntmkgx n|e nxxujed tk le gk|jncc} dmxt|mluted pmtb ze|k jeng

    ngd hkgdmtmkgnc qn|mnghe `kqe|ged l} n xtngdn|d @N\HB"~#v- v|khexx' Tbe jkdec

    mx extmjnted uxmg` tbe ~unxm*jnrmjuj cmiecmbkkd "^JC- jetbkd9 tbe |exuctx n|e

    v|exegted mg tnlce 8'>8

    Tnlce 8 hkgtnmgx vn|njete| extmjntex' Tbe hkeaamhmegtx |ecntmg` tbe xehtk| |etu|g

    xe|mex tk tbe Eu|kveng amcte|ed |etu|gx "hkeaamhmegtx h- n|e bm`bc} xm`gmamhngt ak| ncc

    xehtk|x' Tbe} qn|} a|kj 6'5< "deaegxmqe xehtk|- ak| akkd ngd leqe|n`ex tk >'42"kaaegxmqe xehtk|- ak| tehbgkck`}' Jk|e mgte|extmg`c}# tbe hkeaamhmegtx |ecntmg`

    tbe |etu|g xe|mex tk kmc v|mhe hbng`ex "hkeaamhmegtx l- n|e xm`gmamhngt mg gmge hnxex#

    mgdmhntmg` xm`gmamhngt xbk|t*te|j eaaehtx ka kmc v|mhe acuhtuntmkgx kg Eu|kveng xehtk|

    xtkhi v|mhex' Kmc v|mhe mgh|enxex ge`ntmqec} naaeht xehtk| |etu|gx mg tpk hnxex "akkd

    ngd leqe|n`ex ngd benctb hn|e-# ngd vkxmtmqec} mg xeqeg hnxex# pbmhb mx hkg*

    xmxtegt pmtb tbe hk||ecntmkgx |evk|ted mg tnlce 06

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    Tnlce 8EXTMJNTEX \EXUCTXJKDEC ">-

    n

    n l h n l> `> \< N\HB DP

    Nutkjklmce ! vn|tx

    *6'6 6'16> >'=16

    "6'648- "6'662- "6'6>5- "6'68=- "6'602-

    Akkd ! leqe|n`ex

    6'>6< *6'681/ 6'5>5/ 6'5=5// 6'>50/ * 6'885 6'64> >'==- "6'62- "6'688- "6'640- "6'64- "6'6=-

    Mgduxt|mncx

    6'60- "6'660- "6'64- "6'65- "6'6>0- "6'6>- "6'6>=- "6'6>'=48

    "6'605- "6'6>0- "6'684- "6'6>>=// 6'6// 6'>

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    ka tbe cn|`e @N\HB hkeaamhmegtx' Gkte ncxk tbnt tbe extmjntex hkeaamhmegtx `ngdl

    xntmxa} tbe xtntmkgn|} hkgdmtmkgx' Amgncc}# pe text ak| tbe nlxeghe ka nutkhk||ecntmkg

    ngd N\HB eaaehtx mg tbe |exmdunc xe|mex' Tbe |exuctx mgdmhnte tbnt tbe jkdec

    xvehmamhntmkg pe uxe mx acermlce egku`b tk hnvtu|e tbe d}gnjmhx ka |etu|gx'

    Tk xuj uv# ku| ngnc}xmx xbkpx xt|kg` cmgin`ex letpeeg kmc v|mhe hbng`ex ngdjkxt Eu|kveng xehtk| |etu|gx kqe| tbe ve|mkd ugde| hkgxmde|ntmkg' Tbe xm`g ngd

    mgtegxmt} ka tbexe cmgin`ex dmaae| a|kj kge xehtk| tk ngktbe|' Mg tbe akcckpmg`

    xehtmkg# pe text ak| nx}jjet|mex mg tbe |exvkgxex ka Eu|kveng xehtk| |etu|gx tk kmc

    v|mhe xbkhix'

    Nx}jjet|mh \enhtmkg tk Kmc Xbkhix? Xkje |ehegt vnve|x bnqe xbkpg tbnt tbe

    cmgi letpeeg kmc ngd ehkgkjmh nhtmqmt} mx gkt egtm|ec} cmgen| ngd tbnt ge`ntmqe kmc

    v|mhe xbkhix "v|mhe mgh|enxex- tegd tk bnqe cn|`e| mjvnhtx kg `|kptb tbng vkxmtmqe

    xbkhix dk "O' Bnjmctkg# D' _bng`# ngd N' Hkck`gm ngd J' Jnge|n-'>4 Tbux# pe

    xbkucd erveht tbnt kmc v|mhex e~uncc} naaeht xtkhi jn|ietx mg ng nx}jjet|mh

    anxbmkg' Mg k|de| tk text ak| nx}jjet|} mg tbe |enhtmkg ka Eu|kveng xehtk| |etu|gx tk

    kmc v|mhe xbkhix# pe extmjnte tbe akcckpmg` nx}jjet|mh juctmanhtk| jkdec?

    |mt : n ) l)Dt 8 |kmc

    ut ) l

    >Dt 8 |kmcut ) h 8 |jxhm

    6t ) d8 |m9t> ) emt )Rv

    c:>

    `cb

    pbe|e Dt mx n dujj} qn|mnlce tnimg` kge ma ugervehted hbng`e mg kmc v|mhe mx

    vkxmtmqe ngd ze|k ma mt mx ge`ntmqe' Tbux# l) ngd l n|e tbe hkeaamhmegtx hk||e*

    xvkgdmg` tk mgh|enxex ngd deh|enxex mg kmc v|mhe ervehtntmkgx# |exvehtmqec}' Tbe|e

    mx gk nx}jjet|} ma l) ngdl n|e gkt xtntmxtmhncc} dmaae|egt a|kj enhb ktbe|' Tbeg#

    pe text ak| tbmx gucc b}vktbexmx? l) : l' Jk|ekqe|# pe text ak| tbe b}vktbexmx ka

    gkg*nx}jjet|} ngd gucc xegxmtmqmtmex tk kmc v|mhe mgh|enxex ngd deh|enxex? l)

    : l

    :6' Ku| jnmg ejvm|mhnc |exuctx n|e xujjn|mzed mg tnlce 4'

    Pncd textx xbkp tbnt tbe b}vktbexmx l) : l : 6 mx |eoehted jkxtc} nt tbe >*ve|hegt

    ceqec mg >6 hnxex# pbmhb hkgam|jx tbe xm`gmamhnghe ka kmc v|mhe xbkhix nx n anhtk|

    naaehtmg` xehtk| |etu|gx mg Eu|kve' Kmc v|mhe hbng`ex dk gkt xm`gmamhngtc} naaeht

    xtkhi |etu|gx ak| nutkjklmce ngd vn|tx ngd tecehkjjugmhntmkgx mgduxt|mex#

    pbmhb mx hkgxmxtegt pmtb ku| amgdmg`x |evk|ted mg tnlce 8' Tbe kgc} erhevtmkg mx ak|

    ve|xkgnc ngd bkuxebkcd `kkdx# ak| pbmhb pe akugd gk xm`gmamhngt |enhtmkg tk kmc

    xbkhix uxmg` n x}jjet|mh nxxet*v|mhmg` jkdec' Mgdeed# nx}jjet|mh |exuctx mg tnlce

    4 xbkp tbnt xtkhi |etu|gx mg tbmx xehtk| |enht ge`ntmqec} tk ervehted kmc v|mhe mg*h|enxex ngd ge`ntmqec} tk ervehted kmc v|mhe deh|enxex' Pncd textx hkgam|j tbmx

    |exuct ngd xbkp tbnt tbe b}vktbexmx l) : l mx |eoehted ak| ve|xkgnc ngd bkuxebkcd

    TBE OKU\GNC KA EGE\@] NGD DEQECKVJEGT>0

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    Tnlce 4EXTMJNTEX \EXUCTXJKDEC "'504 6'=>6 6'458 >'1=< =1 6'256 6'5== >'=1>

    "6'6>1- "6'6>'>>= >'=80

    "6'668 -

    Tecehkjjugmhntmkgx

    6'68> 6'660 6'42< 6'>'==- "6'012 *ve|hegt ceqec9 // : mgdmhntex xm`gmamhnghe ka

    hkeaamhmegtx nt tbe 5*ve|hegt ceqec9 /// : mgdmhntex xm`gmamhnghe ka hkeaamhmegtx nt tbe >6*ve|hegt ceqec9

    ngd |kluxt xtngdn|d e||k|x n|e mg vn|egtbexex' Pe ncxk texted ak| @NHB mg jeng eaaeht9 hkeaamhmegtx

    n|e gkt xm`gmamhngt' Jkdecx n|e extmjnted pmtb N\">- te|j pbeg tbe cntte| mx xm`gmamhngt'

    KMC V\MHE XBKHIX ! EU\KVENG XTKHI JN\IETX >08

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    `kkdx ngd ak| tpk ktbe| mgduxt|mex "akkd ngd leqe|n`ex ngd benctb hn|e-'

    Ak| tbexe mgduxt|mex# |enhtmkgx tk kmc v|mhe hbng`ex n|e nx}jjet|mh'

    Hnuxncmt} Textx? Mg k|de| tk au|tbe| ernjmge tbe |ecntmkgxbmvx letpeeg kmc v|mhe

    hbng`ex ngd xehtk| xtkhi |etu|gx mg Eu|kve# pe v|kheed tk @|ng`e| hnuxncmt} textxkg tbe |etu|g xe|mex' \exuctx n|e |evk|ted mg tnlce 5' Xmghe xkje qn|mnlcex nx pecc nx

    tbem| lmcnte|nc eaaehtx n|e qe|} xegxmtmqe tk tbe xecehted gujle| ka cn`x mg tbe

    ngnc}xmx# pe dehmde tk mjvcejegt tbmx text ak| dmaae|egt cn`x'

    Tbe |exuctx xbkp tbnt tbe|e mx n lmdm|ehtmkgnc hnuxncmt} letpeeg kmc v|mhe hbng`ex

    ngd DO Xtkrr |etu|gx' Mgdeed# DO Xtkrr |etu|gx @|ng`e|*hnuxe hbng`ex mg kmc v|mhex nt

    tbe >6*ve|hegt ceqec# ngd kmc v|mhe xbkhix @|ng`e|*hnuxe hbng`ex mg DO Xtkrr |etu|gx'

    Xmjmcn| |exuctx n|e kltnmged ak| nutkjklmce ngd vn|tx# akkd ngd leqe|n`ex# kmc

    ngd `nx# mgduxt|mncx# ve|xkgnc ngd bkuxebkcd `kkdx# hkgxuje| xe|qmhex# ngd

    tbe utmcmtmex mgduxt|mex'Tbe|e n|e ugmdm|ehtmkgnc @|ng`e| hnuxncmtmex a|kj kmc tk xtkhi |etu|gx ak| am*

    gnghmncx# benctb hn|e# ngd tehbgkck`} mgduxt|mex ngd a|kj xtkhi |etu|gx tk kmc

    ak| tbe lnxmh jnte|mncx mgduxt|}' Amgncc}# tbe|e pnx gk xm`gmamhngt hnuxncmt} le*

    tpeeg kmc v|mhe hbng`ex ngd tecehkjjugmhntmkgx xtkhi |etu|gx'

    Tnieg tk`etbe|# ku| hnuxncmt} text |exuctx hk||klk|nte ku| v|eqmkux amgdmg`x ngd

    xu``ext xm`gmamhngt mgte|nhtmkgx letpeeg kmc v|mhex ngd xtkhi v|mhex# erhevt ak|

    tecehkjjugmhntmkgx xtkhix' Ku| hnuxncmt} text |exuctx n|e mgte|extmg` ak| nt cenxt

    tpk |enxkgx' Am|xt# tbe} mjvc} xkje v|edmhtnlmcmt} mg kmc ngd Eu|kveng xtkhi v|mhe

    d}gnjmhx' Xehkgd# mg hkgt|nxt tk xeqe|nc pk|ix mg tbe cmte|ntu|e# pbmhb nxxujeerk`egemt} ka kmc v|mhex pmtb |exveht tk jnh|kehkgkjmh ngd amgnghmnc qn|mnlcex#

    ku| amgdmg`x xu``ext tbnt n |eqe|xe |ecntmkgxbmv jn} ermxt' Mgdeed# hbng`ex mg xkje

    Eu|kveng xehtk| |etu|gx dk xm`gmamhngtc} naaeht pk|cd kmc v|mhex "L' Epmg` ngd

    J' Tbkjvxkg ngd A' Cexhn|kur ngd Q' Jm`gkg-'>5

    H}hcmhnc Hk||ecntmkgx letpeeg Kmc V|mhex ngd Xtkhi Jn|ietx? Amgncc}# pe ernjmge

    h}hcmhnc hk||ecntmkgx nx n jenxu|e ka xbk|t*|ug cmgin`ex letpeeg kmc v|mhe hbng`ex

    ngd xehtk| xtkhi |etu|gx mg Eu|kve' Tk tbmx egd# pe akcckp tbe jetbkdkck`} mg*

    t|kduhed l} N' Xe|cetmx ngd N' Xbnbjk|ndm ngd nvvcmed l} xeqe|nc vnve|x tk xtud}tbe cmgix letpeeg ege|`} v|mhex ngd ehkgkjmh nhtmqmt}'>1 Am|xt# tbe Bkd|mhi*

    V|exhktt "BV- amcte| mx ejvck}ed tk dehkjvkxe enhb tmje*xe|mex qn|mnlce mg ku|

    xtud} mgtk ckg`*|ug ngd luxmgexx h}hce hkjvkgegtx' Gert# pe hkjvute tbe h|kxx*

    hk||ecntmkgx letpeeg tbe h}hcmhnc hkjvkgegt ka kmc v|mhe "hkmct- ngd tbnt ka xtkhi

    jn|iet mgdmhex "hxtkhit-' Pe degkte tbexe hk||ecntmkgx l} |"o- ngd tbe} n|e hkj*

    vuted ak|o : 6# >#

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    Tnlce 5\EXUCTX KA TBE @\NG@E\ HNUXNCMT] TEXTX

    n

    Cn`x > < 8 4 1 2 >6 >>< 6'>64 6'810< 6'>25 6'80= 6'680 6'61< 6'64= 6'64> 6'685 6'>82K.X 6'>88 6'660 6'660 6'661 6'665 6'6>> 6'646 6'481K.X 6'>80 6'601 6'>>0 6'>55 6'56 6'4< 6'>02 6'8>5

    Kmc ! `nx

    X.K 6'612 6'616 6'652 6'61= 6'651 6'62< 6'618 6'>16K.X 6'185 6'646 6'>81 6'>44 6'861 6'84> 6'406 6'420

    Benctb hn|e

    X.K 6'18< 6'44> 6'1> 6'412K.X 6'>4= 6'11Lnxmh jnte|mncx

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