The Impact Of Globalisation On International Maritime ... · The Impact Of Globalisation On International Maritime Transppyort Activity: Past Trends And Future Perspectives Sustainable

The Impact Of Globalisation On International Maritime Transport Activity: p y

Past Trends And Future Perspectives

Sustainable Intermodal Freight Transportation Research (SIFTR)OECD/ITF Global Forum on Sustainable Development: OECD/ITF Global Forum on Sustainable Development:

Transport and Environment in a Globalising WorldGuadalajara, Mexico

James J. Corbett, Ph.D. P.E. James J. Winebrake, Ph.D.U i i f D l R h I i f T h lUniversity of Delaware Rochester Institute of Technology

10-13 November 2008

ContainershipTanker

B lk C iBulk Carrier

General Cargo

Refrigerated CargoRo-Ro

Passenger

2008 © J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 1

Overview of Paper and Presentation

Maritime shipping and multimodal goods movementpp g g

Global economic growth coupled with shipping, trade

Maritime technology responds to globalization signals

Maritime energy use and environmental impactsEnergy and power trendsCharacterizing fleets using activity-based data vs. statisticsT f iti hi i i t l i tTaxonomy of maritime shipping environmental impacts

Sustainable intermodal freight transport and shipping


Maritime Shipping and Goods MovementA tradition of stewardship and service to societyf p y

They that go down to the sea in ships, that do business in great waters; these see the works of the Lord, and his wonders in the deep. , p

(Nature) Psalm 107, KJV

As by means of water-carriage a more extensive market is opened to every sort of industry …, so it is upon the sea-coast, and along … navigable rivers, that industry of every kind naturally begins to subdivide and improve and not till a long time every kind naturally begins to subdivide and improve …, and … not till a long time after that those improvements extend themselves to the inland parts of the country.

Adam Smith: http://www.adamsmith.org/smith/won-index.htm

Phoenicians Age of SailCoal-fired

steamMarine diesel

Ships of the 21st Century?Phoenicians Age of Sail steam diesel 21 Century?


Ocean shipping among intermodal transport

Global freight transportation system: ocean and coastal routes, inland waterways, railways, roads, and air freight

Ocean shipping serves both as a substitute and as a complement for other freight modes

2008 © J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake First published in the IMO Study of Greenhouse Gases from Ships (Skjølsvik et al, 2000). 4

Mode share comparisons: Cargo demand and CO2 emissionsg 2

Trucking is 40-45% of total work (ton-kilometers)g ( )

100,000

1,000

10,000

me

(Gtk

m)

10

100

Car

go V

olum

1

10

Road Shipping Aviation Rail

U S Freight EU25 Freight Seaborne Trade

2008 © J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake

U.S. Freight EU25 Freight Seaborne Trade

5Source : Bureau of Transportation Statistics (2007); Energy Information Administration (2007). Note that units are on log scale

Unitized cargoes grow faster than bulk cargoes

Globalization has encouraged transactions of goods and i i ll k t d li d “j t i ti ”services in smaller packets delivered “just-in-time”

2,500

3,000

go

1,500

2,000

Metric Tons Carg

0

500

1,000

Million

Labor advantages and inexpensive transport allow materials on one continent to be shipped to another for intermediate processing moved

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Liquid Bulk Dry Bulk Containerized and Other Cargo

continent to be shipped to another for intermediate processing, moved to a third continent for assembly, and then delivered to market


Economy, Transport, Energy are Coupled

For every percentage increase in GDP for OECD, there has been ~4% rise in trade over this period


Relationship between OECD economic growth and growth in exports and importsg p p

For every one percentage increase in GDP for OECD, there has been ~4% rise in trade over 1992-2006

14.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

+ Im

ports

4.0%

6.0%

Growth in

Exports +

y = 4.067x ‐ 0.044R² = 0.899

‐2.0%

0.0%

2.0%% G


0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

% Growth in GDP

Economic coupling with goods movement can be directly measuredcan be directly measured

Relationship between cargo shipments and container traffic (TEUs) and GDP as measured in ton-miles for the U.S


Technology shift during last century10

T iti b b f hi l th b t

gy g y

Transition by number of ships slower than by tonnage

100,000Steam & MotorSteam

700,000,000Steam & MotorSteam

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

Ship

s

SteamMotorSail & BargesTotal

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

oss

SteamMotorSail & BargesTotal

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Num

ber o

f S

200,000,000

300,000,000Tons

Gro

-

10,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-

100,000,000

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Gross maritime shipping tonnageNumber of ships in fleet

Corbett, J.J., Marine Transportation and Energy Use, in Encyclopedia of Energy, edited by C.J. Cleveland, pp. 745-748, Elesvier Science, San Diego, CA, 2004 2008 © J.J. Corbett

Gross maritime shipping tonnage by vessel technology

Number of ships in fleet by vessel technology

Trends in global fleet cargo capacity

Fleet capacity (gross tonnage) increased significantly with globalizationV l fl h l l t iti d f OECD ti t thVessel flags have largely transitioned from OECD nations to others

600,000,000

700,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

, ,

n Flee

t

World Total

OECD Nations

200,000,000

300,000,000

Gross Ton

s in

OECD with Second Flag

Liberia

Panama

Other Selected Nations

0

100,000,000

1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

This is associated with a shift to more international seafaring labor …2008 © J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake

1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

11

Seafaring professions use international labor

Qualified seafarers hired according to economic (not residency) criteria

12 00014,00016,00018,00020,000

60%70%80%90%100%

rs in

Sam

ple

nal Sam

ple

4,0006,0008,00010,00012,000

20%30%40%50%60%

er of Seafarer

cent of N

atio

02,000

0%10%

USA

orway

UK

rmany

Greece

Russia

China

Croatia

Po

land

kraine

pp

ines

India

Latvia Num

b e

Perc

Professionally skilled seafarers across ranks and nationalities remains

N Ge G C P U

Philip

Own Flag Foreign flag

Professionally skilled seafarers across ranks and nationalities remains an issue of international importance to safety and environment

2008 © J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 12Source: Obando-Rojas, B. (2001), The Global Labour Market Study, Cardiff University

International marine fuel sales by nation as percent of world bunkers, 2003 - 2005

Nations selling most fuel to ships are typically nations with

percent of world bunkers, 2003 2005

strong interests in cargoes or services those ships provide

Million tonnes fuel 2003 2004 2005W ld 150 568 100% 167 734 100% 175 330 100%World 150,568 100% 167,734 100% 175,330 100%OECD 81,425 54% 91,326 54% 99,140 57%OECD North America 20,873 14% 26,213 16% 27,930 16%United States 19,559 13% 24,828 15% 26,455 15%

OECD Europe 47,860 32% 51,442 31% 53,787 31%OECD Pacific 12,692 8% 13,671 8% 17,419 10%Non OECD 69,143 46% 76,408 46% 76,190 43%Singapore 20 809 14% 19 567 12% 25 479 15%

(OECD) nations account for roughly half of these fuel sales

Singapore 20,809 14% 19,567 12% 25,479 15%

2008 © J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 13Source: International Energy Agency and OECD (2007a) and (2007b)

Trend in average installed power (kW) for world-wide vessel fleet

Switch to more fuel-efficient engines was more than offset by increased engine power requirements to meet rapidly expanding demand for more and faster global trade

1 80

1.40

1.60

1.80

wer (1

999 = 1)

0.80

1.00

1.20

verage

Installed Po

w

0.20

0.40

0.60

Inde

x of Fleet‐av


0.00

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

14

Activity-based methodologyData confidence higher than fuel sales data onlyData confidence higher than fuel sales data only

Fleet statistics Fleet activity

Fleet fuel consumption

Fuel and combustion

characteristics(Lloyds)

y(AIS, industry data, other)

Fleet emissions

characteristics(BLG 12/6/INF.10,

IPCC, etc.)

Average installed power

Average operating

timeAverage

engine loadAverage SFOC

Average Carbon contentpower

• Confidence Hightime

• Confidence moderate

• Known variability high

• Dominates output

g

• Confidence moderate

• Known variability moderate

• Second most

• Confidence highcontent

• Confidence high• Some variability

due to fuel characteristics

Dominates output range

Second most influential to output range


Fuel consumption growing with global trade

2002 World fleet (including cargo, noncargo, and military vessels) consumed ~280 million tonnes fuel ~200 million tonnes for cargo shipsconsumed ~280 million tonnes fuel, ~200 million tonnes for cargo ships

IMO Informal Cross Government/Industry Scientific Group of Experts estimated 2007 global ship fuel consumption at ~369 million tonnes, increasin to ~486 million tonnes by 2020

45,000450 Freight‐energy Trend Gunner, October 2007

35,000

40,000

300

350

400

miles

n Tonn

es)

g gy

Freight‐energy Trend Corbett and Köhler, JGR, 2003

Freight‐energy Trend Eyring et al., JGR, 2005

Int'l Marine Bunker Sales (IEA 2006)

Point Estimates from Existing Studies

Trade in billion tonnemiles

25,000

30,000

200

250

300

billion

ton

ne m

ption (M

illion Trade in billion tonne miles

15,000

20,000

50

100

150

Trad

e in b

Fuel Con

sump


10,0000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

16

Taxonomy of Environmental Impacts

Episodic environmental events Routine environmental eventsVessel-based

Oil spills Engine air emissionsOOcean dumping Invasive species introductions

(ballast water/hull fouling)Sewage discharges Hull coating toxics releasesOily wastewater Underwater noiseOily wastewater Underwater noiseVessel collisionsShip-strikes with marine life

Port-basedD d i St t ffDredging Storm water runoffPort expansion Vessel wake erosionShip construction, breaking Cargo-handling air emissions


Efforts are now underway to evaluate and reduce air pollution from shipsreduce air pollution from ships

Emissions → Pollution fate/transport → Exposure → Impact

1.E+01

1.E+02

1.E+03

Fuel and CO2 Traditional Air Pollutants and Black Carbon HFCs

1.E-01

1.E+00

1.E 01

Tg p

er Y

ear

1.E-03

1.E-02

Use s C)

s N)

s S)

PM HC HC

ane

MHC

bon

bon

ants

Regist

ered F

leet F

uel U

s

Regist

ered F

leet C

O2 (as

C

Regist

ered F

leet N

Ox (as

Regist

ered F

leet S

Ox (as

Regist

ered F

leet P

Regist

ered F

leet E

ngine

H

Cargo H

Methan

Total N

MHBlac

k Carb

oOrga

nic C

arbo

Refrige

ran

Summary of global emissions from maritime shipping, 20022008 © J.J. Corbett and J.J. Winebrake 18

List of example air pollution control technologies for maritime shippingtechnologies for maritime shipping

Emissions → Pollution fate/transport → Exposure → Impact → Mitigation

Example technologies (not complete list)Likely to include operations, logistics to fully address GHGs

Stage Control technology Target PollutantPre-combustion Fuel water emulsification NOx

Humid air motor NOxCombustion air saturation system NOx

In-engine Aftercooler upgrades NOxEngine derating NOxInjection timing delay NOxEngine efficiency improvements NOx, SOx, PM, CO2

Post-engine Selective catalytic reduction NOxSeawater scrubbing SOxDiesel particulate filters PMDiesel oxidation catalysts PM

Vessel designs Hull form CO2, energy ratio pollutantsPropeller CO2, energy ratio pollutants


Mitigation focus not only emissions, GHGsGlobalization addresses entire ship impact taxonomyp p y

Globalization trends increase other impacts, global focus i t ti t iti ti ti f th ton environment motivate mitigating action for these too

Example: Right whale strikes and global average ship momentum

y = 11 343x + 1 301425

y = 11.343x + 1.3014R² = 0.6166

15

20

Wha

le Strikes

10

15

Rep

orted Right W

0

5

Ann

ual R


0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00

Index of Ship Momentum (product of speed and tonnage, 1999 = 1)

20

Creating a Sustainable Intermodal Freight System Summaryy

Intrinsic connection between maritime transport, trade, globalization continue to be coupled (e.g., IPCC SRES)

Industry responds to regulatory, market-driven, & advocacyy p g y, , ypressure to improve environmental performance

Environmental and security policy shifting to internationalEnvironmental and security policy shifting to international agreements and global frameworks for regional policy

A sustainable intermodal freight system is preferred to aA sustainable intermodal freight system is preferred to a mode-by-mode approach for at least two reasons:

It can show where shipping modes offer least-cost mitigationIt can identify where shipping offers the least polluting transport service


Discussion Welcome

C O N TA C T:C O N TA C T:J A M E S J . C O R B E T T, P. E .U N I V. O F D E L AWA R EJ C O R B E T T @ U D E L . E D U

J A M E S J . W I N E B R A K E , P H . D .R O C H E S T E R I N S T. O F T E C H .J W I N E B R A K E @ R I T. E D U@

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The Impact Of Globalisation On International Maritime ... · The Impact Of Globalisation On International Maritime Transppyort Activity: Past Trends And Future Perspectives Sustainable