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The Impact of Future-Oriented The Impact of Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) on Technology Analysis (FTA) on
Technological Innovation and Policy. Technological Innovation and Policy. The Case of Poly(ethylene The Case of Poly(ethylene
therephthalate) (PET)therephthalate) (PET)
Snezana KrsticSnezana KrsticUniversity of BelgradeUniversity of Belgrade
Faculty of Technology and MetallurgyFaculty of Technology and MetallurgySerbia Serbia
e-mail: [email protected]: [email protected]
Industry of polymer Industry of polymer materialsmaterials
Manufacturing sector
Recovery sector
Production sectorPolymer resins, granulate
Products –solids, films, fibers, …
Scraps, flakes, chemicals, energy
Industry of polymer Industry of polymer materialsmaterials
Abut 100 million tons per year
Consumption rising steadily
Tailor-made materials meet most advanced technological requirements
Increasingly dynamic business sector
Industry of polymer Industry of polymer materialsmaterials
Global economic downturn related to petrochemical feedstock prices
Environmental pressures
Legislative measures
Market fluctuations
…..
Challenges
Industry of polymer Industry of polymer materialsmaterials
to estimate market and industrial trends
new applications
environmental challenges
…..
Responseto challanges
FTA
Future oriented technology analysis
Economic forecast for Economic forecast for polymer industrypolymer industry
Upstream marketsDownstream markets
New investments in capacity Ratio between production-manufacturing-recovery capacities Economic incentives Fast growing markets in Asia Resin market trends – supply and demand Sensitivity to energy cost fluctuations Oil prices
New applicationsTechnological innovation
PETPETPoly(ethylene terephthalate)Poly(ethylene terephthalate)
Food and packaging industry Textile industry Electronics Automotive sector
Excellent barrier properties
Engineering material
Relatively low price
Good recyclability
Mechanical (material melting)
Chemical (chemical or thermal decomposition)
Energy recovery (incineration)
PETPETPoly(ethylene terephthalate)Poly(ethylene terephthalate)
Rapid market growth
Forecasting PET market Forecasting PET market trendstrends
Forecasted 2.48 million tons
Real over 3.2 million tons1995
PET market growth
0
1
2
3
4
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996
mil
lio
n t
on
s
Forecasted
Real
Forecasting PET market Forecasting PET market trendstrends
Environmental impact
a clear message
As much as we can expect growth of consumption, in reality it can be even higher
Large volume of waste
FTA impact on policyFTA impact on policy
Forecasts assessing increasing consumption and volume of waste
Full landfills
Environmental awareness on waste management
Policy measures worldwide
EU policy related to EU policy related to polymer waste managementpolymer waste management
Several directives and proposals concerning:
Packaging and packaging waste
End-of-life vehicle (ELV) waste
Electric and electronic equipment waste
Waste landfilling
EU Directive on EU Directive on packaging and packaging packaging and packaging
waste (1994)waste (1994)
Plastics:Recovery 50 %Recycling 15%
Various national management approaches to meet the targets
New technologies, new capacities
RESULT
Increased recovery and recycling rates
Germany – “manufacturer responsibilityAustria – industry pays collectionFrance – “shared responsibilityBelgium – eco-taxNetherlands – all users pay ………
EU Directive on EU Directive on packaging and packaging packaging and packaging
waste (1994)waste (1994)
Increasing consumption
Stagnation in recycling rates
With the same recovery capacity larger portion of waste for
landfilling
New challenge
Forecasted
Forecasted
New tough proposal for the DirectiveRecovery 60 %Recycling 22.5 %
FTA impact on policy - USAFTA impact on policy - USA
FDA – Food and drugs administration
Focus on application of recycled materials for new bottles
Toxicant not to exceed 0.5 ppb
Technological innovationProduct
designRecycling
processes
FTA impact on FTA impact on technological innovationtechnological innovation
Forecasts concerning consumption and waste increase
Innovations in recycling
- Innovated technologies for mechanical and chemical recycling
- Designing products more suitable for recycling- New applications for recycled materials
Sustainability condition
FTA impact on FTA impact on technological innovationtechnological innovation
Forecasts concerning market saturations
Innovations for virgin products
Better oxygen-barrier propertiesHot filling
Sophisticated product designs
FTA impact on FTA impact on technological innovation in technological innovation in
various business various business environmentsenvironments
Large petrochemical complexes – innovations related to chemical and thermal decomposition of material
Manufacturing companies – innovations related to savings in materials for bottle production
SMEs – innovations related to product design and new applications
Impact on developing Impact on developing countriescountries
Raising environmental awareness
Different pathways
Rise in investments in capacities in various developing countries
SummarySummary
FTAProduction
Manufacture
Recovery
New applic.
Market growth
Legislation
Technol. innovation
PET
ConclusionsConclusions
All dimension are crucial
Future advancement of FTA
deeper understanding of qualitative information, their proper interpretation and integration into the process
Technology
Economy
Social issues
Environment
PET FTA
