The Impact of Foresight on “policy-making”-

Drawing the landscapePhiline Warnke, Olivier DaCosta, Fabiana Scapolo

Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS)

OutlineOutline

• Review of the issue

• Insights from previous workshop

• The background statements

• Synthesis of online discussion

Why revisiting impact on policyWhy revisiting impact on policy--making?making?

Interviews and literature review revealed a need to reconsider this topic due to:

• Increasing emphasis on Foresight process

• Debate on new policy support tools

• Long-standing experience in Foresight allows for review of lessons learned

• More attempts on impact assessment

Point of departure WS IPoint of departure WS IContributions of Foresight to policy-making

1. Policy informing

2. Policy facilitating

3. Policy process improving

Guiding question:

How to deal with tensions between these functions in order to improve policy impact?

Foresight FunctionsForesight Functions

actor

Policy

Forward looking intelligencePolicy InformingPolicy Informing

Links, Interfaces

Distributed Intelligence

Joint Learning Platform

Joint Vision

actor

actor

Policy FacilitatingPolicy Facilitating

11 Policy informingPolicy informing

• Provide forward-looking intelligence

• Provide guiding visions

Improve knowledge base of policy conceptualisation and design

22 Policy FacilitatingPolicy Facilitating

• distributed strategic intelligence

• links, interfaces, knowledge flows

• platforms for joint learning

• common ground and shared visions

• future oriented attitudes

enabling change

soft coordination

33 Policy process improvingPolicy process improving

• Increase transparency and legitimacy

• Foster long-term orientation

• Introduce reflexivity

Improved mode of governance in multi layered and multi actor arenas

Outcomes of previous workshopOutcomes of previous workshop

• Foresight should and can attempt to achieve all three functions

• Tensions are relevant but can be dealt with by diligent design

• To actively support policy decisions (if this is the aim!) we need to move one step further

– integrate a normative element

– move to „user/client-oriented forward-looking strategies“ (Matthias)

ForesightForesight in the in the policypolicy processprocess ((MauritsMaurits))

Visiondevelopment

Policydevelopment Implementation

Initiation

Feedback

Adaptive Foresight Adaptive Foresight ……

• Tailored approaches with distinctive phases with different levels of:

– Stakeholder participation

– Policy involvement

– Methods

Food for thought: Adaptive ForesightFood for thought: Adaptive Foresight

From vision to action

Diversity and level ofParticipation

A few decision-makers

Citizen participation

Large societaldebate

Stakeholder expert groups

Phase I:Diagnosis

Vision How to get there

+ recommendations

Measures, actionsDiagnosis

Phase II: Exploration

Phase III: Strategic orientation

Phase IV: Making choices

Phase V: Implementation and coordination

13

Starting point for this workshop:Starting point for this workshop:online discussiononline discussion

Theme 1 Informing vs. normative Theme 1 Informing vs. normative function of foresightfunction of foresight

Core Issue

• How should the normative dimension be integrated?

Aspects

• Normative does not necessarily mean tying Foresight to nowadays policy objectives. Foresight can have the function to question existing objectives therefore

• whether exploratory or normative aspect is dominant is depending on

– Foresight type (problem oriented vs. S&T oriented)

– Objective of exercise (e.g. for participatory priority setting not so relevant)

Theme 2 Theme 2 -- Stakeholder participationStakeholder participation

Core issue 1

• Should there be participation of lay persons? How?

Aspects

• Different rationales for lay person inclusion:

– knowledge is often highly relevant (e.g. as users)

– ordinary citizen need to participate in a decision that has an impact on them (e.g. consensus conference)

• Danger of parallel democracy

• What about the costs?

Theme 2 Theme 2 -- Stakeholder participationStakeholder participation

Core issue 2 (related to theme 4)

• Do we need windows of seclusion where Foresight works exclusively with policy makers?

– Dependent on political culture

– protected spaces to target hidden agendas

– Why not wide participation in all phases?

– deliberative democracy?

Theme 3 Political Theme 3 Political involvement/engagementinvolvement/engagement

Core Issue

To what degree should policy makers themselves be involved?

• Involvement necessary but difficult

• Involvement increases use of results

Theme 4 ImplementationTheme 4 Implementation

• How can Foresight contribute to policy strategy building?

– Should their be distinctive elements dedicated to strategy building?

– How far should Foresight move into planning? What happens to the creativity?

– Foresight practitioners unwilling to enter into strategy building?

– How to support the actual choice policy makers have to make in the end?

– Should Foresight be complemented by other instruments (transition management, participatory/ constructive TA, impact assessment)? How?

Tensions between both functionsTensions between both functions

• Trade off between broadness of participation and analytical depth (intensiveness vs. extensiveness)

• Policy support needs to target hidden agendas which policy makers do not always like to disclose publicly

• Policy makers need to link anticipatory intelligence to normative objectives

• Strategic intelligence calls for sound knowledge of policy process which the stakeholders do not necessarily have

Approaches to address tension between Approaches to address tension between policy informing and facilitatingpolicy informing and facilitating

• Separation

• Translation

SeparationSeparationTwo types of exerciseTwo types of exercise

R&D community Industry

Civil Society

Policy

“Societal”Foresight

“Professional-analytic”Foresight

TranslationTranslationOutcome of participatory Foresight is Outcome of participatory Foresight is ““translated to policytranslated to policy--makersmakers””

Policy

• Anticipatory intelligence• Recommendations

Distributed Intelligence

Joint Visionlinks

Interface