The Impact of BRAC on the Old Line State

The Impact of BRAC on theThe Impact of BRAC on theOld Line StateOld Line State

Daraius Irani, Ph.D.Daraius Irani, Ph.D.

March 14March 14thth, 2007, 2007

Base Realignment and Closure Commission (BRAC)

• BRAC is the commonly used acronym for the formal BRAC is the commonly used acronym for the formal name of the Defense Base Closure and Realignment name of the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Commission. The BRAC Commission is an Commission. The BRAC Commission is an independent entity that submits its findings and independent entity that submits its findings and recommendations to the President of the United recommendations to the President of the United States.States.

• The 2005 BRAC Commission is authorized by The 2005 BRAC Commission is authorized by Congress through the Defense Base Closure and Congress through the Defense Base Closure and Realignment Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-510), as Realignment Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-510), as amended. amended.


• There are nine commissioners who have been There are nine commissioners who have been appointed to serve on the BRAC Commission by appointed to serve on the BRAC Commission by President Bush.President Bush.

• The BRAC Commission was created to provide an The BRAC Commission was created to provide an objective, thorough, accurate, and non-partisan objective, thorough, accurate, and non-partisan review and analysis, through a process determined review and analysis, through a process determined by law, of the list of bases and military installations by law, of the list of bases and military installations which the Department of Defense (DoD) has which the Department of Defense (DoD) has recommended be closed and/or realigned. recommended be closed and/or realigned.


• The Commission is required to assess each The Commission is required to assess each recommendation to ensure it meets the eight recommendation to ensure it meets the eight selection criteria set forth by Congress in P.L. 108-selection criteria set forth by Congress in P.L. 108-375. 375.

• Recommendations by DoD that substantially deviate Recommendations by DoD that substantially deviate from these selection criteria can be modified or from these selection criteria can be modified or rejected by the Commission by a simple majority vote rejected by the Commission by a simple majority vote of the Commissioners.of the Commissioners.


• Military ValueMilitary Value

(1)(1) The current and future mission capabilities and the The current and future mission capabilities and the impacts in operational readiness of the total force of the impacts in operational readiness of the total force of the Department of Defense, including the impact on joint war Department of Defense, including the impact on joint war fighting, training and readiness.fighting, training and readiness.

(2)(2) The availability and condition of land, facilities, and The availability and condition of land, facilities, and associated airspace at both existing and potential receiving associated airspace at both existing and potential receiving locations.locations.


• Military Value (cont.)Military Value (cont.)

(3)(3) The ability to accommodate contingency, The ability to accommodate contingency, mobilization, surge and future total force requirements at mobilization, surge and future total force requirements at both existing and potential receiving locations to support both existing and potential receiving locations to support operations and training.operations and training.

(4)(4) The cost of operations and the manpower The cost of operations and the manpower implications.implications.


• Other ConsiderationsOther Considerations

(5)(5) The extent and timing of potential costs and The extent and timing of potential costs and savings, including the number of years, beginning savings, including the number of years, beginning with the date of completion of the closure or with the date of completion of the closure or realignment, for the savings to exceed the costsrealignment, for the savings to exceed the costs

(6)(6) The economic impact on existing communities The economic impact on existing communities in the vicinity of military installations.in the vicinity of military installations.


• Other Considerations (cont.)Other Considerations (cont.)

(7)(7) The ability of the infrastructure of both the The ability of the infrastructure of both the existing and potential communities to support, existing and potential communities to support, missions, and personnel.missions, and personnel.

(8)(8) The environmental impact, including the The environmental impact, including the impact of costs related to potential environmental impact of costs related to potential environmental restoration, waste management, environmental restoration, waste management, environmental compliance activities.compliance activities.

BRAC IMPORTANT FACTSBRAC IMPORTANT FACTS

• 70% of the jobs will be vacant…only 30% of the jobs will 70% of the jobs will be vacant…only 30% of the jobs will move with an actual personmove with an actual person

• Service/Infrastructure Jobs (Retail, Teachers, Healthcare, Service/Infrastructure Jobs (Retail, Teachers, Healthcare, Hospitality) are 1:1 with the BRAC direct related jobs Hospitality) are 1:1 with the BRAC direct related jobs

• 40,000 – 60,000 jobs40,000 – 60,000 jobs• 50% of the jobs will have a 50-60+ person in the job when it 50% of the jobs will have a 50-60+ person in the job when it

is moved to MDis moved to MD• 17% of the BRAC related jobs require less then a bachelors 17% of the BRAC related jobs require less then a bachelors

degreedegree• High Skill and High Salary Range positions on all levels of High Skill and High Salary Range positions on all levels of

educationeducation

BRAC Analysis: FindingsBRAC Analysis: FindingsWe estimate that the BRAC decisions will generate:

• over 45,000 jobs of which 15,000 are direct jobs, 22,000 indirect jobs and the balance are induced jobs;

• the average wages of all these new jobs are over $70,000;

• the average household income of households likely to move to Maryland due to BRAC exceeds $100,000;

• the annual income and property tax revenues (local and state) approach half billion dollars derived from the nearly 30,000 new households estimated to locate to Maryland;

BRAC Analysis: ImpactsBRAC Analysis: ImpactsCountyCounty Jobs Households

Anne Arundel 10,049 4,457

Baltimore 3,898 3,653

Cecil 2,602 1,997

Harford 12,712 6,533

Howard 2,259 1,853

Montgomery 4,236 2,274

Prince George's 3,463 1,996

Baltimore City 3,145 2,551

Rest of MD 2,868 2,876

Total 45,232 28,188

Maryland BRAC Job ImpactsMaryland BRAC Job ImpactsSectorSector DirectDirect Non-Non-

Embedded Embedded IndirectIndirect

IndirectIndirect InducedInduced TotalTotal

Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction and Manufacturing 0 0 891 313 1,204

Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

0 0 1,879 2,077 3,956

Transportation and Warehousing 1,749 590 1,038 200 3,577

Information 2,727 2,000 1,822 82 6,631

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 7,421 3,936 3,759 342 15,458

Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,841 804 82 24 2,751

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation 860 592 3,470 324 5,246

Education, Health, Arts, Restaurants, Hotels, Other Services, and Government

675 78 1,781 3,875 6,409

Total 15,273 8,000 14,722 7,237 45,232

Maryland BRAC Wage ImpactsMaryland BRAC Wage ImpactsSectorSector DirectDirect Non-Non-

Embedded Embedded IndirectIndirect


Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction and Manufacturing 0 0 $58,715 $47,703 $57,873

Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

0 0 $44,582 $32,019 $40,187

Transportation and Warehousing $69,136 $89,963 $44,004 $14,532 $62,764

Information $98,258 $105,380 $79,333 $51,874 $80,731

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services $110,118 $129,044 $66,336 $42,128 $96,644

Management of Companies and Enterprises $97,082 $90,045 $61,817 $53,682 $93,460

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation

$82,366 $90,071 $27,992 $23,266 $43,279

Education, Health, Arts, Restaurants, Hotels, Other Services, and Government

$51,139 $90,237 $27,042 $30,442 $33,892

Total $97,566 $113,064 $49,316 $31,752 $70,388

Baltimore City BRAC Job ImpactsBaltimore City BRAC Job Impacts

SectorSector Non-Non-Embedded Embedded

IndirectIndirect


Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction and Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction and ManufacturingManufacturing

00 5050 1717 6767

Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Finance and Insurance, Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasingand Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

00 105105 112112 217217

Transportation and WarehousingTransportation and Warehousing 131131 5858 1111 199199

InformationInformation 524524 102102 44 630630

Professional, Scientific and Technical ServicesProfessional, Scientific and Technical Services 952952 210210 1818 1,1801,180

Management of Companies and EnterprisesManagement of Companies and Enterprises 178178 55 11 184184

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and RemediationRemediation

131131 194194 1717 342342

Education, Health, Arts, Restaurants, Hotels, Other Education, Health, Arts, Restaurants, Hotels, Other Services, and GovernmentServices, and Government

1717 100100 209209 326326

TotalTotal 1,9321,932 823823 390390 3,1453,145

Baltimore City Wage ImpactsBaltimore City Wage Impacts

SectorSector Non-Non-Embedded Embedded

IndirectIndirect


Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction and Agriculture, Mining, Utilities, Construction and ManufacturingManufacturing

$0$0 $58,694$58,694 $47,651$47,651 $57,848$57,848

Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Finance and Insurance, Wholesale Trade, Retail Trade, Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasingand Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

$0$0 $44,584$44,584 $32,022$32,022 $40,250$40,250

Transportation and WarehousingTransportation and Warehousing $89,963$89,963 $44,004$44,004 $14,532$14,532 $62,764$62,764

InformationInformation $105,380$105,380 $79,333$79,333 $51,874$51,874 $80,731$80,731

Professional, Scientific and Technical ServicesProfessional, Scientific and Technical Services $129,044$129,044 $66,336$66,336 $42,128$42,128 $96,644$96,644

Management of Companies and EnterprisesManagement of Companies and Enterprises $90,045$90,045 $61,817$61,817 $53,682$53,682 $93,460$93,460

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and RemediationRemediation

$90,071$90,071 $27,992$27,992 $23,266$23,266 $43,279$43,279

Education, Health, Arts, Restaurants, Hotels, Other Education, Health, Arts, Restaurants, Hotels, Other Services, and GovernmentServices, and Government

$90,237$90,237 $27,054$27,054 $30,439$30,439 $33,526$33,526

TotalTotal $113,412$113,412 $49,318$49,318 $31,751$31,751 $74,065$74,065

Baltimore City Household ImpactsBaltimore City Household Impacts

DirectDirect Indirect Indirect Non-Non-

EmbeddedEmbedded

IndirectIndirect InducedInduced TotalTotal Average Average Household Household

IncomeIncome

Baltimore City (ALL)Baltimore City (ALL) 365365 1,0571,057 777777 352352 2,5522,552 $64,111$64,111

Baltimore City (Ft. Meade)Baltimore City (Ft. Meade) 177177 534534 359359 131131 1,2011,201 $66,224$66,224

Baltimore City (APG)Baltimore City (APG) 185185 523523 400400 212212 1,3211,321 $62,747$62,747

Baltimore City (AFB)Baltimore City (AFB) 33 1717 99 3030 $39,361$39,361

Average Household IncomeAverage Household Income $155,957$155,957 $155,957$155,957 $155,957$155,957 $155,957$155,957

Education Current* Forecasted**

High School 13.7% 3.0%

Some College 9.3% 14.3%

Bachelors Degree 34.6% 10.6%

Some Graduate 14.1% 30.9%

Masters 16.2% 16.5%

Other Graduate Degree 5.1% 11.1%

Doctorate 6.9% 13.7%

* Civilian DOD Employees and Contractors**Based upon the OPM minimum education requirements

Education Levels: BRACEducation Levels: BRAC

Age Age 2005

21-29 14%

30-39 9%

40-49 33%

50-59 34%

60+ 11%

Age Distribution of Existing Age Distribution of Existing BRAC Job HoldersBRAC Job Holders

BRAC OccupationsBRAC Occupations

• Electronics Engineering SeriesElectronics Engineering Series• General Engineering SeriesGeneral Engineering Series• Computer Engineering SeriesComputer Engineering Series• Computer Science EngineeringComputer Science Engineering• Information Technology Management Series.Information Technology Management Series.• Computer Science SeriesComputer Science Series• Operations Research SeriesOperations Research Series• Telecommunications SeriesTelecommunications Series

BRAC Occupations (cont.)BRAC Occupations (cont.)

• Management and Program Analysis SeriesManagement and Program Analysis Series• Program Management SeriesProgram Management Series• Management and Program Clerical and Assistance Management and Program Clerical and Assistance

SeriesSeries• Financial Management SeriesFinancial Management Series• Financial Administration and Program SeriesFinancial Administration and Program Series• Budget Analysis SeriesBudget Analysis Series• Contracting SeriesContracting Series


• Miscellaneous Administration and Program SeriesMiscellaneous Administration and Program Series• Secretary SeriesSecretary Series• Mail and File SeriesMail and File Series• Data Transcriber SeriesData Transcriber Series• Miscellaneous Administration and Program SeriesMiscellaneous Administration and Program Series• Technical Writing and Editing SeriesTechnical Writing and Editing Series• Equipment Operator SeriesEquipment Operator Series


• Logistics Management SeriesLogistics Management Series• Inventory Management SeriesInventory Management Series• General Supply SeriesGeneral Supply Series• Supply Program Management SeriesSupply Program Management Series• Human Resources Management SeriesHuman Resources Management Series• Human Resources Assistance SeriesHuman Resources Assistance Series

OPM Qualification Standard Percent of Civilian DOD Employees

Administrative and Management Positions 44.8%

Clerical and Administrative Support Positions 11.6%

Competitive Service Student Trainee Positions 0.9%

N/A - Contracting 7.2%

No Qualification Standard 0.3%

Professional and Scientific Positions 34.9%

Technical and Medical Support Positions 0.2%

100.0%

Administrative & ManagementAdministrative & ManagementGS-5 GS-7 GS-9 GS-11 GS-12 Series

4-year course of

study leading to a bachelor's

degree

1 full year of graduate

level education

ORsuperior academic

achievement

Master's or equivalent graduate

degree OR 2 full years

of progressivel

y higher level

graduate leading to

such a degree OR

LL.B. or J.D. if related

Ph.D. or equivalent doctoral degree

OR3 full years

of progressivel

y higher level

graduate education leading to

such a degree

ORLL.M., if related

Series: 18*, 28, 80, 132, 201, 260, 301, 340, 341, 343,

346, 391*, 501, 505*, 560, 950,

1020*, 1035, 1083*, 1101*,

1670*, 1801, 1910*, 2001, 2003, 2010,

2032, 2130*, 2210*

*These occupational series also have specific educational requirements

Clerical & Administrative SupportClerical & Administrative Support

GS-2 GS-3 GS-4 GS-5 Series

high school

graduate or

equivalent

high school

graduate or

equivalent + 1 year

above high school

1 years above high

school

4 years above high

school

Series: 86, 134, 303, 305, 318, 326, 335, 344,

361, 505*, 544, 561, 986, 1101,

1105, 1106, 2005


Professional & ScientificProfessional & Scientific**GS-5 GS-7 GS-9 GS-11 GS-12 Series

Successful completion of a full 4-year

course of study in an accredited college or university

leading to a bachelor's or higher degree that included a major field of study or

specific course requirements generally as stated in the individual

occupational requirements.

1 year of graduate-

level education

or superior academic achieveme

nt

2 years of progressively higher

level graduate education leading to a master's degree or master's

or equivalent graduate

degree

3 years of progressively higher level

graduate education

leading to a Ph.D. degree or Ph.D. or equivalent doctoral

degree OR For

research positions:

Master's or equivalent graduate

degree

For research positions: Ph.D. or

equivalent doctoral degree

Series: 170*, 510*, 801*, 803*, 830*, 854*, 855*, 893*,

896*, 1301*, 1306*, 1515*, 1550*


Student TraineeStudent Trainee

GS-2 GS-3 GS-4 Series

High school diploma or equivalent

Completion of 1 academic year

of post-high school study

Completion of 2 academic years

of post-high school study or

associate's degree

Series: 199, 399, 599, 899, 999,

1199, 1599, 1699, 2099

Technical & Medical SupportGS-2 GS-3 GS-4 GS-5 GS-7 GS-9 Series

High school

graduation or

equivalent

1 year above high school

with course(s) related to

the occupation, if required

2 years above high school with

courses related to

the occupation, if required

4-year course of

study above high school leading to a bachelor's

degree with courses

related to the

occupation, if required

One full year of

graduate education (directly related to the work

of the position) meets the requirements for GS-

7

Two full years of graduate education directly

related to the work

of the position

or a master's degree

meets the requirements for GS-9.

Series: 802*, 856*

Series: 905,

1222

SECURITY CLEARANCE PROCESS SECURITY CLEARANCE PROCESS AND MARYLANDAND MARYLAND

• Education/InformationEducation/Information • Pipeline of Qualified Pipeline of Qualified PeoplePeople

• 80-90 Percent of the jobs coming to Maryland related to BRAC 80-90 Percent of the jobs coming to Maryland related to BRAC (excluding the service and infrastructure jobs) require some type of (excluding the service and infrastructure jobs) require some type of clearanceclearance

• Process for educating secondary and post-secondary students in MD Process for educating secondary and post-secondary students in MD needs to be developed and implementedneeds to be developed and implemented

• Process for identifying and the transition of veterans (new and retired) Process for identifying and the transition of veterans (new and retired) through the clearance process needs to be developed and through the clearance process needs to be developed and implemented in MD implemented in MD

• Pipeline of companies and government agencies to sponsor Pipeline of companies and government agencies to sponsor individuals individuals

THANKS FOR YOUR TIME AND ATTENTIONTHANKS FOR YOUR TIME AND ATTENTION

Dr. Daraius IraniDr. Daraius Irani• Towson UniversityTowson University• EDA University CenterEDA University Center• Regional Economic Studies Institute Regional Economic Studies Institute • 410-704-6363410-704-6363• [email protected]@resiusa.org • FOR MORE FOR MORE

INFORMATION OR A INFORMATION OR A COPY OF THE COPY OF THE PRESENTATION PRESENTATION EMAIL US…THANKS!EMAIL US…THANKS!

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The Impact of BRAC on the Old Line State