The Human Population:The Human Population:Patterns, Processes, and ProblematicsPatterns, Processes, and Problematics

Lecture #9: Lecture #9: Ch6: The Fertility TransitionCh6: The Fertility Transition

Paul SuttonPaul Sutton

psutton@du.edupsutton@du.edu

Department of GeographyDepartment of Geography

University of DenverUniversity of Denver

Chapter 6 Outline

• 1) Explanations for High Fertility

• 2) Explanations for Low Fertility

• 3) Some High Fertility Countries

• 4) Some Low Fertility Countries

Bertrand Russel Quote (1959):

“I am inclined to think that the most important of Western values is the habit of a low birth-rate. If this can be spread throughout the world, the rest of what is good in Western life can also be spread. There can be not only prosperity, but peace. But if the West continues to monopolize the benefits of low birth-rate(s), war, pestilence, and famine must continue, and our brief emergence from those ancient evils must be swallowed in a new flood of ignorance, destitution, and war.”

Does anyone else hear echoes of Malthus?

Explanations for High Fertility

• Need to replenish society

• Children as security and labor

• Desire for sons

• Family control vs. Fertility control

Global Map of Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Spatial pattern the same as when Bertrand Russel made his 1949 statement but actual levels are lower

The Evolutionary Result:The Breeders win (need to replenish society)

• For 99% of human history mortality was high

• Only High Fertility insured survival

• Pro-Natalist ‘cults of Fertility’ an appropriate adaptation for survival.

Need to Replenish Society• Fact: 2 children/woman must survive to

reproduce (on average) • Only those societies that developed social

institutions that encouraged child bearing and rewarded parenthood survived.

Kgatla people of South Africa“A woman with many children is honored. Married couples

acquire new dignity after the birth of their first child. Since the Kgatla have a patrilineal descent system (inheritance passes through the sons), the birth of a son makes the father the founder of a line that will perpetuate his name and memory… [the mother’s] kin are pleased because the birth saves them from shame”

Yoruba People of West Nigeria

• Less than 4 children a family tragedy

• Personally desired fertility of 5.6

• ‘Socially’ desired fertility 3 or less

• Actual fertility in between these value because of involuntary infecundity

Social Encouragement of High Fertility• “We often find for example that the permissive enjoyment

of sexual intercourse, the ownership of land, the admission to certain offices, the claim to respect, and the attainment of blessedness are made contingent upon marriage. Marriage accomplished, the more specific encouragements to fertility apply. In familistic societies where kinship forms the chief basis of social organization, reproduction is a necessary means to nearly every major goal in life. The salvation of the soul, the security of old age, the production of goods, the protection of the hearth, and the assurance of affection may depend upon the presence, help, and comfort of progeny….[T]his articulation of the parental status with the rest of one’s statuses is the supreme encouragement to fertility.”

Societal disconnect between infant and child mortality and fertility

‘Pro-natalist pressure encourages family members to bring power and prestige to themselves and to their group by having children; and, this may have no particular relationship to the level of mortality within a family’

Any problems with this reasoning?

Children as Security & Labor

• In Pre-Modern Societies human beings are the primary economic resource

• Even young children can produce more than they consume and support sick and elderly

• Note: Diamond in Guns, Germs, and Steel notes that elderly make key informational contributions to Pre-Modern societies. In fact, our life expectancy reaching a certain critical point may have been key to development of complex civilization (This observation may be from other book ‘The Third Chimpanzee’)

Esther Boserup Quote (1981)“In most of Africa, a large share of the agricultural work

was and is done by women and the children, even very young ones, perform numerous tasks in rural areas. A man with many children can have his land cleared for long-fallow cultivation by young sons, and all, or nearly all, other agricultural work done by women and smaller children. He need not pay for hired labor or fear for lack of support in old age. A large family is an economic advantage--a provider of social security, and of prestige in the local community. Therefore, the large family is the universally agreed on ideal in most African communities.”

What is the perception as to:How do more children help?

• Human Lottery Tickets (one may get rich)

• Help with crops etc.

• Migrate elsewhere and send money home

What is the Reality as to:How do children help?

• Parents usually die before it is an issue

• In Pre-Modern society quantity more important than quality of children

• Studies show only a weak link between fertility and percieved need for old-age security

Desire for Sons• Most Human Societies are Male Dominated

(exception: Minoan Crete and Navajo Nation?)

• In societies seeking “An heir and a spare” The TFR can almost be predicted by what TFR is needed for 2

male children

In Pakistan 5.6 in Angola 6.8

• When Daughters marry Daughter’s Family provides Dowry to New Bride and Groom. This is a serious economic disincentive for daughters.

Desire for Sons in India• Hindu Religion requires parents to be buried by

their son.

“A son obtains victory over all people.

A grandson provides immortality.

A great grandson vaults one to the solar abode”

• Needles to say this kind of belief system does encourage high fertility.

Desire for Sons continued….• Malaysia: Low desire for sons in both

Malay (Muslim) and Indian (Hindu) populations

• China: High desire for sons

• Korea: High desire for son

• Viet Nam: High desire for sons

Desire for Sons and Dropping Fertility (How can that work?)

• Infanticide (not as common as previously thought)

• Sex-Selective Abortion (very common)

• Result: More boys than girls in countries with high desire for sons. How big a social problem this will manifest as is an interesting question

Desire for Sons:The European Version (Primogeniture)

• Definition: Primogeniture – 1) The state of being the firstborn of the children of

the same parents– 2) The exclusive right of inheritance belonging to the

eldest son

• The male children:

1)The Heir 2) The Soldier 3) The Priest

Primogeniture waned with gender equity and the ideal family in Europe is now 1 boy and 1 girl

Family Control & Fertility Control• Natural Fertility rarely as high as Maximum

Fertility

• Families Maximize benefit of Children

• Net Reproduction is how many survive

• Post-Natal Control methods– Infanticide– Fosterage– Orphanage

Note: Post-Natal control is NOT fertility control

Keeping Women Down• Making women have a lot of children is a great

way to prevent them from doing a lot of other things. (How is it accomplished?)

– Child bearing & rearing as Female purpose/role/identity

– No outside work or work for money– No social mobility– Family and Social Pressure to be a mother

Food for thought..

• What caused the fertility transition in Britain?

• What caused the fertility transition in the United States?

• Will the same processes cause the fertility transition in Kenya, India, or Guatemala?