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The HIGHS & LOWS of 2015Real Estate – Jeremy Larkin
NAR 11/2015
2011 - Today
Dwelling Sales By Year
2,752
6,727
7,894
5,336
3,897
2,856
3,276
3,6503,899 3,969
4,969 4,889 5,033
2,041
2,623
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Single Family Building Permits By Year
1,845
1,422
581474
701 717
1,156
1,568
1,2991,417
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Single Family Building Permits By Month
113
86
117
158
92
112
51
84
157
122
176
102
145
195
102
81
159
11797
113
153
94
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
JAN FEB MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC
���������� ���������
Lot Sales By Year 2006 - 2015
1,780
1,168
632
469546
650
1,100
1,652
1,4081,371
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
All Sales By Product Year Over YearNovember YTD
4,456
1,273
187
1,371
121
5,033
Dwellings Vac. Lot Acreage/Commercial
2014
2015
All Sales By Area YTD November
353
606
352
258
816
302
176
606
373
810
338
368
1028
353
212
614
264
1119
1046
246
7561,445
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Bloomington
Bloomington Hills
East End of County
East St. George
Hurricane / La Verkin
Ivins
Santa Clara
St. George Valley
U-18
Washington
West St. George
2015
2014
All Sales By Year
5,916
4,873
6,3896,525
2012 2013 2014 2015
Trustee's Deeds 2014 - 2015
39
2925 22
1622
17 1418
11 813
711
2326
1922
28 18
1219
11
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 2892015 141
Platted Lots By Month
73
144
233
180
85
42
84
113
294
212
76 79
219
108
161
122114
90 89
78
186
7484
Januar
y
Febru
ary
March
April
May
June
July
AugustSep
tember
October
November
Decem
ber
2014 *1,3982015 1,542
*437 additional lots for Short Creek Subdivisions
*
TOTALS
Washington County Refinances By Count 2014-2015
217227
283
326
280
352
450
406
381
350 351335 327 323
254
285289
271286
251 267253
416
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2014 3,209 2015 3,971
$253,284 – Avg. SalePrice 2015
$248,722 –Avg. Sale Price 2014
$209,900 – MedianSale Price 2015
$220,000Median Sale 2014
$2.7 Million – The Ledges
$40k St. George
2013
NAR’s December 2015 H.O.M.E. Survey
HousingOpportunities &
MarketExperience
H.O.M.E.
NAR’s December 2015 H.O.M.E. Survey
Homeownership is a Good Financial Decisionby age of household head
NAR’s December 2015 H.O.M.E. Survey
Homeownership is Part of the American Dreamby household income
87% 83% 85% 87% 90% 88% 91%
NAR’s December 2015 H.O.M.E. Survey
Among all U.S. households whobelieve homeownership is part
of their American Dream, themost appealing aspects of
homeownership were…
NAR’s December 2015 H.O.M.E. Survey
Why HomeownerPurchased a Home
% of Americans who say homeownership is part ofachieving their PERSONAL AMERICAN DREAM
Trulia
NAR
Sellers Trading Up…
1. They want the opportunity to build equity2.They want a stable
and safe environment3. They want the
freedom tochoose theirneighborhood
The top 3 reasons to own a home…
NAR
Increasing Gap in Family Wealth
NAR
$182K $190K $220K
2010 2013 Projected 2015
An American Family’s
Net Worth
NAR
$225,000
OVER 45Xgreaterthanrenters
Homeowners Net Worth…
NAR
2015 Returnon Investment
SP 500
NASDAQ REAL ESTATEVALUES
Stocks
Precious Metals
-.7%
GoldPrice.org, CNBC, CoreLogic
Long Term Investment?
SP 500
NASDAQ REAL ESTATEVALUES
Stocks
-.7%
Msnmoney.com – Nov 1, 2011
2015 88%of property managers raised their rent inthe last 12 months, and there does not
appear to be any signs of stopping.
68%of property managers predict that rentalrates will continue to rise in the next year
by an average of 8%
53%of property managers said that theywere more likely to bring in a new
tenant at a higher rate, than negotiateand renew a lease with a current
tenant they already know.rent.com
rent.com
…according to the First-Time Buyer MortgageShare Index by AEI’s International Center onHousing Risk
56% of all buyers were firsttime buyers this month
AEI’s International Center on Housing Risk
First Time Home Buyers
…Rates go from 4% to 5%? Your $250kbudget just became $225k!!
10%decrease in buying powerper
1% increase in rates
Losing Buying Power…
Quarter FannieMae
FreddieMac MBA NAR Average
of all four
2016 1Q 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.05%
2016 2Q 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.23%
2016 3Q 4.0 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.4%
2016 4Q 4.1 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.6%
Mortgage Rate Projections
12/2015
Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $200,000 4.0% $954.83
2016 3Q $210,600 5.0% $1,130.55
*Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment
$175.72Difference in Monthly Payment
Date Mortgage Interest Rate* P&I**
Today $400,000 4.0% $1,909.66
2016 3Q $421,200 5.0% $2,261.09
*Average Commitment Rate per Freddie Mac **Principal and Interest Payment
$351.43Difference in Monthly Payment
Freddie Mac
It's likely you’ve heard the ruleof thumb that you shouldn'tbuy a home unless you canput 20% down. However, that’sa common misconceptionin today’s market.A growing number of borrowers are puttingdown between 5 and 10% of the purchaseprice. Some qualified borrowers are evenputting down as little as 3%.
Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), areport from the Mortgage Bankers Association
Mortgage CreditAvailability
Typical Down Payment according to NAR
RealtyTrac
Home Prices
FHFA
Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Priceby State
CoreLogic 12/2015
Forecasted Year-Over-Year % Change in Priceby State
S&P Case Shiller 10/2015
Year-Over-Year
PRICECHANGES
Another Housing BUBBLE?
Months Inventory ofHOMES FOR SALE
NAR 11/2015
2011 - Today
Number of annualsingle-family starts…
Builder Magazine
New Home Salesin thousands
Freddie Mac
Percentage ofDistressed Property
Sales
35%
6%9%
NAR 12/2015
January 2012 - Today
Quicken Loans
Appraiser home valueopinions compared tohomeowner estimates
2015
Bottom Line?1. Housing continues to outpace every other
investment vehicle over time.
2. No bubble, but a correction will come(remember 5-7 year cycles!)
3. 2016 should be stable with no major pricechanges. After the election? Things get interesting.
4. 2015/16 will be future years of regret. “I coulda,shoulda, wish I’d…”
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Freddie Mac
