The Habit of Thinking

8/8/2019 The Habit of Thinking

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Get into the Habit of ThinkingMost people go t hrough l ife without thinking. They react

automatically, from habit, to a given situation. They do not have aconscious objective and select their acti ons t o get nearer their objective. Also they do not think about consequences of their actions.This is bad, it leads to many errors in acting.

When you talk or think about a subject, stay with the subject, see allits sides, until you have reached a conclusion. Do not jump to another,unrelated, subject before finishing the first.

Also, when talking, use words in daily use, or define your words, sothat the other person can understand you fully.

Those few persons that are in the habit of thinking, normally livebetter, they reach their goals. Therefore it is most important to getinto the habit of thinking.

You get into a habit by doing repeatedly. At first this will be slow and alot of work, but with p ractice, t his will become much faster and moreuseful. So thi nk at l east once or twice a day before you act. How canyou do this "thinking"?That is explained in the following sections.

An Opportunity to Reason MuchBetter Human beings are t he species t hat d ominate t his pl anet because they

reason better than all other beings on it. However even betweenhumans t here are t hose that reason bett er t han others. We observethat those that reason better, normally also live better, they have abetter standard of living, a better quality of live. Therefore it is of thegreatest importance to reason as well as possible. (Here we use theword "reason" t o indicate t he processes occurri ng in the brain of the

IS).

This is your opportunity to increase your intelligence by 2 00% to 300%,believe it, or not. By this we mean that you will reach more of your objectives, and you will do so in less time. Naturally if you are alreadyapplying all these methods and in the right order, your intelligence willnot change.

The ideas expressed in thi s chapter are not new; t hey can be fou nd inother books. What is new is that we give a theoretical basis for theexisting empirical ideas. You will find that all the concepts andresponse rules expressed here will flow naturally from what we nowknow about intelligence , int elligent systems and their society .



By observing the functioning of artificial IS's , we can learn a lot abouthow to reason better, about how to increase our intelligence. Because,if we perform all the steps of reasoning consciously and in their proper order, our reasoning will be m ore effective and we have a better chance to get t he wanted results.

Well, how do t hese art if icial IS's reason? Their computer p rogramconsists of parts , each of which does a function. The main functionsare:

· Have an

objective· Receive sensations

· Determine the situation

· Make alternate plans

· Select best response / plan

· Act

· Observe result s

· Store experiences

What is a Function?The function of a bottle is t o contain l iquid. The function of a house

is to protect its inhabitants f rom the weather and int ruders. Thefunction of a car is to transport people. The function of an obj ect isthat which the inventor intended to accomplish with the object. Thereare many different ways to realize a function. Both the bike and the car fulfil l the function of transporting persons. Also in the reasoningprocess, the way t he hum an mind and t he artif icial int elligent system(For conti nuos reading, l ike a book - do not enter here now). realizesthe dif ferent reasoning f unctions are quite diff erent, but the functionsthemselves are the same. Also the results are the same.



When analyzing a function, there are two important questions to ask"How ?" and "Why ?". When we ask "how" i s t his function accompl ished,we are asking about a lower level function. For instance the function of a refrigirator could be to keep food cool. Asking "how" is this done, wecome to the function of "compressing a gas by an electric motor" When

we ask "why" we come t o a higher level f unction. When we ask why dowe want to keep food cool, we come to the higher level function:"prevent the spoiling of food".

The part s of an item usually r ealize t hese lower level function s.

Further there may be aggregate functions such as the rubber on apencil's end or the ice producing part of a refrigerator. These werefunctions added since it was economical or easy to do so, but theycontribute nothing to the main function.

Functional analysis is much used in value engineering, in find ingbetter ways to do things. We find the neeeded functions and then thinkabout a different and better way to accomplish the required function.See also Value Analysis .

Have an ObjectiveThe first function that we will analyze is that of having an objective .

We can observe very clearly in an artificial IS that when we give it no

objective, it cannot act , or only act randomly. The system cannot dowhat we want, because we have not indicated to it, what we want it todo. This is obvious. On t he other hand, how oft en have we observedthat persons start to act, without having clearly defined what their objecti ve is? How then can t hey possibly expect to reach their objecti ve? Actin g, wit hout a clearly defined objective, is p ossibly t hebiggest error persons make when thinking. Without an objective thereis no basis for choosing between one response and another, and withan ill defined objective the response will surely not be optimum.

What is the relation between the main objective and lesser levelobjecti ves? The main objective of all living b eings is t he survival of thespecies. Darwin has shown that only species with thi s m ain objectivehave survived and exist today. To reach the main objective we chooselesser level objectives, obtaining them helps in obtaining the mainobjective. There is a pyramid of objectives where always the lesser level obj ectives are gui delines f or obtaining the superior objecti ve. If we ask ourselves why we have a certain objective, we will come to anext level objective, and finally to the main objective. If we askourselves how we obtain an objecti ve we will come t o a lower levelobjective.



When deciding what to do, the artificial IS and also humans shouldstart with the objective : What, exactly, do we want to obtain. The firstquestion should be if that objective really is a good objective and whatobjecti ve, of a higher level, thi s objective support s. If you have animportant objective that you wish to reach, picture exactly the way you

wish to get to it. Imagine the path and the intermediate way stations.These then become your subobjectives.

Well, what can we learn from all this? Knowing well the pyramid of objecti ves we can analyze if our present objective really is t he best toreach our more permanent higher level objectives. Often we investmuch time and effort in obtaining temporary objectives that really donot help us appreciably in reaching our important objectives. If weanalyze our reasons for having a certain objective we can avoiddetours and reach our important objectives in a more direct line.

Obtain InformationBefor e we can determ ine what the present situation is, we needinformation about our environment . This information can come onlyfrom our exterior senses and from our b ody (hunger and pain, for instance). Naturally what a another person says or has written is animport ant source of inform ation:

· We can consult an expert of this field

· We can consult journals and book s in a libr ary

· We can search the internet

· We can buy a book in a bookstore

Another source of information is our memory of the results of previousactions. So we observe:

· how our actions affect other intelligent systems in our environment.

· how our actions affect the rest of the environment.

· our own thoughts: Why do we believe this or that. Why do wenot believe the opposite.

· our emotions, and how they are influenced by positive and

negative emotions of others (If we do not like what we observe,we should get out of the group we are in).



· our body. How is it affected by different foods, the weather andother environmental f actor s.

· and analyze what we hear and see.

We should pay special attention to information received throughspoken or written words and to pictures seen by TV and the Internet. Itis incredible , how much information that we receive is incorrect. Weshould ask ourselves th e foll owing question s, and, based on our answers, d ecide if the news is probably tr ue or false ("news" heremeans printed articles, books and other spoken, written or showninformation).

Contents of the news:

· Is the news without internal contradictions?

· How much detail does t he news contain. Does it contain pl aces,names, persons, t ime, date and dir ections? Is the lack of detailnormal for this t ype of news?

· Is the news according to known scientif ic laws? If not , it has tobe checked extr aordinarily well.

· Does the information contradict other, previously obtained,information?If so, what is the evidence that this new

information is t rue? Can this piece of information be tested? Canit be quantifi ed? If the new information is t rue, the older,contradictory, inform ation has to be thrown out .

· Is the news verbal?Is it a written or recorded document?Is it afirst hand account or a repetition of what another person hassaid?

· If we can check any part of the n ews, we do so (usingencyclopedias, h andbooks, the Internet, a libr ary). If a part isfalse, chances are good that all is false.

· If we like the news, we will normally believe it without muchchecking. But liking a piece of news does not make it any truer.

· If t he news contains emotional att acks on ot her persons andorganizations, especially if without details, it is often false andhas to be checked carefully.

· If the "news" is already t raditional knowledge and has not beenchecked for centur ies, i t should be rechecked before assuming

that it is true.



· Does it seem possible t hat an unusual occurrence could be t rue,even though it contradicts our present knowledge of theenvironment ? If so, we should not reject it outright, but, if possible, check it very carefully before accepti ng or rejecting it.

Credibility of the source of the news:

· Has the source previously given correct news?

· Would the source be hurt significantly, if it is found out later that the news was false?

· Is the source k nowledgeable in this area?

· Does th e source believe many things without checking them?

· If the source talks bad about an enemy, that information mostlyis not true. If it concedes good points of an enemy, thatprobably is true.

· Does the source have a personal interest, a personal advantage,if the news is t rue?

· Does t he source have known prejudices in the area the newscovers?

A second source for the news:

· What reaction of organizations would we expect, if the news istrue. Has this reaction really occurred?

· Is the news such that it should have been observed by severalpersons? Are th ere r eports of these persons? Have they beeninterviewed?

· Information about what another person has said, can be shortand complete. Information about occurrences in our environment can never be short and complete. The environmenthas much to much detail for that, and in any case is onlypartially k nowable. We should always t reat with extr eme carenews that is short and complete and sounds logical. Theenvironment is much too complicated for that to be possible.Somebody has completed and adjusted this piece of news byusing his imagination.

· Two pieces of news about the same occurrence, which onlydiffer in detail, support each other. Two news that are identical

in detail, do not support each ot her, t hey both come from thesame source.



After considering all these points, it should be possible to decide if thepiece of news is probably true or false.

We take this immense amount of information, and concentrating onthat which is important for our objectives , we build up the present

situation . Doing this, we should use concepts that are useful andcorrespond to our environm ent. For details see Misuse of concepts(For conti nuos reading, l ike a book - do not enter here now).

We try to get as much detail as required for our purposes. Withoutsufficient and correct information from our environment, we will buildup an erroneous situation and reacting to it, our responses will not beadequate to the r eal situation. We will not reach our objective .

Make Alternate Plans Intelligence is not something that is general. It is always higher or lower regarding a cert ain subject, r egarding a set of related situations .So one way to increase our intelligence in a certain field i s to gainexperience in this f ield; t o become involved in many situations in thisfield. Thus we gain experience, and fr om it we determ ine severalpossible responses or plans that are adequate for the situation. Thiscan be for the composite situation or parts of it. But there have to beseveral proposals of response. How often have we observed persons,that look at a situation and immediately say: "Now here is what you

have to do. . ." Following this the person details out a single plan of response. This is wrong. There is n ever only one way to deal with asituation. Considering only one course of response is another of thebig errors that is usually made when thinking. A good artificial IS andmedium and large business org anizations always analyze quit e anumber of plans before they decide what to do. We should do thesame in our daily life.

Well, how to we go about this. Possibly we have experienced a simil ar situation in the past. What did we do t hen? What were t he result s? Lookfor the ingredients that were in the situation and also what the mostprominent effects of our response were; what were the undesired sideeffects.What would be t he ot her persons point of view. What are his/ her objectives. How would the other person react to our action. (See alsoethics ) Always imagine what the result of our action (probably) is goingto be, both imm ediately and in the long run.While thinking or talking it over with friends, always use differentwords for diff erent concepts, do not use the same word for differentconcepts, that creates confusion. Think only about the situation andyour possible actions, do not stray to other subjects.

From our previous experience we select possible responses for thepresent situation . In looking for alternatives, it is best to use our own



or somebody else's past experience. But sometimes reasoning isneeded. It is easy to reason incorrectly, if possible, t he result s of reasoning should be checked against the environment, they should betested.Often reasoning fails because a concept (a word) used does not

describe part of the present environment or describes it onlyincompletely.For an extensive list of types of reasoning fallacies see: here .

If we do not seem to be able to find various responses, we make whatis called a "brainstorm". See the page on:

(Enter for continuos reading, like a b ook).Value

Analysis

or one of the many books on the subject or on value analysis /functional analysis / value engineering or see weblinks (Ext erior link) .

Maybe what we want to do is to create something, an object, a methodor an organization. This could be something new, or an improvementon something existing. The way to do this is t o make a functionalanalysis, to forget all that exists physically today and to define whatexactly t he function should be of this new object, method or organization. Knowing the function we can then look for ways for

accomplishing this function as cheaply and easily as is possible. Againa good way t o do thi s is by Value Analysis.

Maybe our objective is to resolve a "problem". A problem is somethingthat previously worked well, but something changed; we are no longer satisfied. The problem can be a person, an organizati on or a machine.Kepner and Tregoe taught us, in a very good book tit led "ProblemSolving and Decision Analysis ", what to do with a problem. We have tolook for that which changed, where we can observe the change, whenit changed, what part changed. In other words we try to see thesituation with as much detail as possible, and contrast it with aprevious situation where t his change was not noti ceable. The contr astcan also be wit h other persons or machines, where we do not observethe probl em. Then we li st all possible causes t hat could h ave producedthe ob served changes only, but no others (using our experience , our store of response rules ). We verif y by determining what other changesour presumed cause should have produced, but that we have notnoted so far. Then we look for these changes. If we find them, weprobably have the cause of the probl em. As you can see th e procedureis complicated but quite effective.

(Enter for continuos reading, like a b ook).Problem



Solving

So we see that we should always elaborate various alternatives. If wehave lit tle tim e, this analysis will have to be very superficial and short.

But if there is time, we should always "think before we act."In our daily life we come across routine situations , where we haveanalyzed alternative responses in previous occasions, and we actimmediately. Even so, occasionally, it is convenient to check if thereasons for selectin g a cert ain alternative in the past, are still validtoday.If the problem is with a person, have a look at How to get him to dosomething (Enter for continuos r eading, like a b ook). .

Select best Action or PlanWe should not select the alternative that at first sight looks best.

Often there are undesirable side effects. Often another alternative,even if not as effective immediately, is better in the long run.Naturally, when there is no time, our selection has to beinstantaneous, but more often than not, there is time, and we shoulduse it. The best way is to make a selection in writing. Consider themain advantages of each alternative. Write down the same amount of the m ost i mp ort ant advantages for each alternati ve (the same amount ,so as not to bias one alternative) and give each advantage a value, for

instance on a 1 to 10 point scale. Note disadvantages of onealternative as advantages of the other alternatives (In alternative B wedo not have the disadvantage of x that exists with high pr obability in

A).

Take into account both short term and long term advantages anddisadvantages. Sometimes an alternative, while having important shortterm advantges, is not so good in the long run.The outcome of anaction is never certain. In important decisions, aside from the mostprobable outcome, it is a good idea to consider the best possibleoutcome and the worst possible outcome.

Also some decisions are less im port ant that others, beside t he m oneyor ti me in volved. Some are reversible. If the r esult of our response isbad, we can und o, wit h l itt le eff ort , what we did . Some are irreversibleor only reversible with a mayor effort. With those, our selection of aplan of response has to be very careful.

In a difficult situation it is very important to choose a good responsethe f irst t ime around. If a situation is difficult and we choose a badresponse, the situation will get worse. Now it is even more difficult toselect a good response. On the other hand, if at first we choose a goodresponse the situation will get better. Now it will be easier to choosethe next response.



Act, Observe Results and StoreExperiences

ActOnce we have selected a plan , we have to act . The artif icial IS has nochoice; t he response is build in. But that is not the case with persons.Many persons think, but then do not act accordingly. There is no sensein just saying we really should d o such and such. We have t o "stand byour convictions". Acting, in the best way we know of, is the only way toreach our objectives .

When acti ng, k eep in mi nd that that int elligent systems (persons andanimals) can be influenced by our emotions, but inanimate nature and

unint elligent machines cannot.

Observe results and store experiences Aft er each instance the art ifi cial IS stores the experience . This isinformation in the shape of a response rule , t hat contains thesituation , the response and the result. This storing process fills thememory of the IS rapidly. Therefore, sim ilar to persons, the art ifi cial IShas to forget. It f orgets the least import ant information and the

information not used for the longest time. Persons also forget. But inorder not to forget what is import ant, a good way is to review our important experiences once a week and thus keep them fresh inmemory.

The IS executes all these functions one aft er another. There is no wayit can change this order. That is not so with human beings. Nearlynever do they fol low the correct sequence. Norm ally t hey act f irst andthen ask t hemselves if another response would not have been better.They make an i ncomplete or no definit ion of the objective and f romthere they jump to the "only possible" response. Then they look againat t he situation, then t hey analyze t he response and finally askthemselves what it was, that they really wanted to achieve. It isobvious that this cannot give good results. To save time and effort andto reach one's objective, it is absolut ely necessary to do all t hefunctions in t heir proper order.

Why don't you try to think in as orderly a manner as a computer?Atfirst it will not be easy, but with tim e it will become a habit. However itdoes need p ractice.



Practice

We have seen how an artificial IS reasons andwhat we can learn from it. But that issomething like learning to ride a bicycle or todrive a car. You cannot learn it by only readinga book . You need practice.

Select first an easy but real problem that youhave. Do all the steps in sequence, preferablyin writing. What is it that you want?Why do youwant it? In ot her words what is the higher levelobjective ?Is it a good objective?Is it worthyour t ime and eff ort to reach i t? Why? Once youhave answered these questions and aresatisfied with the objective, go to the next

step.Observe the present situation . Use your sensesand sources of information. Get a true anddetailed description of the situation . In whatway is the situation similar to a past situationand in what way is it different. With a gooddescription of the situation in hand, and basedon your experience , select various plans of response . Remember that they have to bevarious, even though at first sight there is aresponse that appears t o be the best, by f ar.Try to write down and elaborate severalalt ernat ives. Give a num erical evaluation to theimportant advantages of each. Remember tonote down the same amount of important



advantages, in order to give all alternatives thesame chance. Select the alternative with thehighest point rating. Be extra careful with

irreversible responses . Once you are convincedof what is the best response, you have to act ,otherwise you will not reach your objective .Observe the result and learn from this for thenex t time.

At the end of the week, review what you havedone. At fir st you will make errors, that isnatural. But with time, you will see how your reasoning improves, how much easier it is todo all the steps and in their proper sequence.

Then, when you have learned the method, useit to solve your big problems and use it toachieve your important objectives.

Remember: hum an beings are the species thatdom inate t his planet because they reasonbetter.

Value Analysis

A short summary of the main ideas

What is Value Analysis?It is an orderly and creative method to increase the value of an item.This " it em" can be a pr oduct, a system, a process, a procedure, a p lan,a machine, equipment, tool , a service or a method of working. Value

Analysis, also called Functional Analysis was created by L.D. Miles.

The value of an item is how well the item does its function divided bythe cost of the item (In value analysis value is not just another word for cost):



value of an item = perform ance of it s function / cost

An item, that does its function better than another, has more value.Between two items that perform their function equally well, the onethat costs less, is more valuable.The "performance of its function" could include that it is beautiful(where needed).Do not be surprised if as a result of value analysis the cost of an itemis less that half of its previous cost.

Select t he item t o be studied and for m a study gr oupTo make a value analysis we form a study group of 4 to 6 persons,preferably each with different knowledge, with different backgrounds.They meet in a room free from interruptions.

Then we select the item to be studied. The item should be one thatgives the impression t hat its cost is too high or t hat it does not d o it sfunction well.

Value AnalysisThe value analyst should always be aware of functions, not of products, shapes, or processes. The m ain function is what the i tem

does, is that which somebody wanted to archive by creating the item.Express this function (if possible) with just two words, a verb and anoun.

If t he item is composed of various parts, it is useful to ask for thefunction of each p art, and how they contribute t o t he main function of the item.

Do not be distracted by mere aggregate functions such as the rubber on a pencil's end or the ice producing part of a refrigerator. Thesewere f unctions added since it was economical or easy to do so. Theyhave no relationship with the main function.

Gather informationFind the main function and the secondary functions of an item. Get thecost of realizing each function.The attitude of a value analyst should be critical, aggressive,nonconform ist, never satisfi ed with what she/ he receives for themoney given.The first action of the group should be to gather all the inform ationabout the item. Ask the best specialist of the field, not the person

most accessible. Get a detail of costs. Collect drawings, specifications,



all the written data on the item. Don't be satisfied with verbalinformation.

For a pencil, for instance:

· What is it ? (a pencil)

· What is it for ? (make permanent marks)

· What is t he main f unction? (make marks, writ e lines)

· What is the method, material or procedure that was used torealize the main function?(a graphite stick and wood)

· What are the corresponding secondary functi ons? ("tr ansfer graphite to paper" and "facilitate holding the graphite"

· What does the item cost and how can we distribute the cost of realizing the main function into each secondary function?

· Comparing these costs to an item of a similar function, howmuch should each function and the total cost?

(This example, the pencil, is already a high value i tem).

Center the attention of the value analysis group on the main function,

because, during the analysis, the secondary functions may change.The group may choose different secondary functions to realize themain function.

It is not important that the individual costs assigned are imprecise.Because even an imprecise numerical value is much better than anexpression such as "very costly" or "of low cost".

Measure the value of the way each secondary function is realized, ismaterialized:

· Does it contribu te value? (Is there something that does notcontr ibu te value?)

· Is the cost in proportion to the function r ealized.

· Does it need all its parts, elements, procedures?

· Is there something bett er to do t he same f unction?

· Is there a standard part that can do the function?



Investig ate t he cost of a functi on. Put a dollar sign on tolerances andstrict specifications. See what's thought to be necessary and whichsomebody put in, just to be on the safe side. Remember: All that doesnot contribut e to the m ain function is waste and should b e eliminated.

Creati vity (the b rainstor ming session)The objective is to find a bett er way to do t he main function. We try t ofind a different material, or concept, or process, or design idea, thatrealizes the main function.People looked for conditions under which the human mind producesreally origi nal ideas, a m ethod that helped creati vity. These condition sand procedures are stated below and need strict adherence:

1- State the main fun ction clearly and shortl y on paper or ablackboard (verb and noun), so that the group can fix their attentionon it . State it without mentioni ng t he physical obj ect or the specificprocess. (Do not state secondary or aggregate functions).

2- The leader of the gr oup says "We begin now" and when t he ideas donot flow so fast anymore (about 15 to 20 min.) The leader says "That'sall".

3- Members of t he group state loudly any solution to the problem t heycan t hink of. It is very imp ortant t hat they do not analyze their ownthoughts or those of others. They should not smile or react whenexotic, improbable or senseless ideas are stated. They should not

criticize or speak with others. They should only let their imaginationrun wild and state i deas. An id ea can be inspired by a pr evious idea.(If no rare ideas are stated, t hen t he members are analyzing, notmaking a brain storm).

4- The leader registers all ideas on p aper or a blackboard.

5- When the session h as finalized, if there is any doubt what wasmeant by an idea, the leader clarifies the idea with the help of members. He does not analyze or discard any idea.

This finalizes the brainstorm.

EvaluationThe evaluation should be done after an interval, at best about two daysafter the brainstorm, to allow the group to gain perspective.

Now the group analyzes each idea. They group similar ideas. Whenevaluating, d o not think why the idea would not work, why it is notpossible. Develop each idea, m aking it mor e practical, making itfuncti on better. Estimate a very approx imate cost for each idea and

investigate carefully ideas with an apparently low cost. When an idea iscanceled, t hat should b e based on facts, not opinions.



Identify barriers and eliminate them tactfully.Barriers are excuses or preconceived ideas that cannot besubstantiated with numbers, facts, detailed and precise information or experimental evidence. Barriers can be honest beliefs. Normally thereis gold behind a barrier. Now select the two to four ideas having the

lowest cost.Obtain information for analyzing and developing an idea. Do not workin isolation . Once the group has advanced as far as it can on it s own,make contact with specialists. This may be necessary in the selectionand also during the developm ent of ideas. The value analyst is acoordinator of specialists, of groups of experts in other companies(Pay them for their contribution in some manner).Obtain information from the best source, not the nearest or mostaccessible one. Do not take into account an answer by a person or specialist that lies outside his f ield of exp ertise. The use of specialistsis a powerful way of tearing down barriers. Avoid generalizations. Donot accept second hand information. Ask for copies of documents.

Development of the two to four ideas selected.Make a real effort to develop the ideas of lowest cost that do the mainfuncti on. Make tests, pr otot ypes, get q uotes of cost. Estimate costs of short term alternatives, of long term alternatives and of any new ideasproduced during the evaluation.

At the end of thi s process, the i dea of l east cost should have beenidentified. Ask yourself: Would I spend my own money on this

solution? If not, modify it.

RecommendationIf you work in an organization or enterprise, be sure that the personreally interested in applying the solution gets to see it. Present thefinal solution in writing, on a single sheet of paper, to the person t hatshould implement it. Give a copy to his boss. This sheet should statethe savings, costs and a detailed plan for implementing the idea. Itshould have all the information needed so that a person that does notknow this subject can understand it and do it.The value analysis group should not itself implement the idea, if this isoutside its normal area of work.

Implementation and Follow UpValue analysis is not a method of controlling the work of others or of investigating error s.Normally the amount of work to implement an idea is greater t han t heamount of work needed to produce the idea. Therefore it is a goodprocedure to let the people that im plement t he idea get most of thepraise and merit . That produces excellent relations.Obtain that the group that im plements t he idea informs of the savings

produced and, if possible, benefits f rom these savings. If needed, help



them to establish the way the implementation will be checked and thesavings calculated.

Problem SolvingProblem solving is a technique developed by Kepner and Tregoe

(Ext erior link) . They also call it "Analyti c Trouble shooti ng". Theyexplained the method in a very good book titled "Problem Solving andDecision Analysis". (This book seems hard to get. A similar bookseems t o be "The Rational Manager, Prob lem Solving and DecisionMakin g ", By C.H.Kepner, available fr om amazon.com).

Problem solving is a technique that is particularly useful for solvingproblems at work, but it can also be useful for problems at home. Herewe give a short summary of the main ideas.

Sudden Problems

Suppose that everythin g i s running smoothly, but suddenly, with someequipment, some machine or tool, a problem occurs.We call a problem an unwanted desviation from standard functioning.What we nor mally not ice is an effect, somethin g that happens and canbe observed. This effect had a cause, that normally is invisible.It is this cause that at some point in time produced a change, and socaused the effect, the deviation from standard functioning, thatpreoccupies us.

To corrrect the functioning we need to find the most probable cause.First we have t o define as well as possible what is t he standardfunctioning and what is the present functioning. For this Kepner andTregoe in their book "Problem Solving and Decision Analysis"recommend that we fill in a spreadsheet somewhat like this:

State the problem:

Data for checking apossible cause

Data f or stim ulatingthought

about a possible cause

What iswrongin the waythe objectlooks,sounds,feels, smells

What is NOTwrongthis time,even thoughit is related,or waswrong, atother times

Peculiaritiesanddiferencesabout the"wrong"and "NOTwrong"columns

ChangesWhat, andat whattime,related withthe "wrong"column

What is the - (in what - -



object,person, processwhere youobserve the

defect or problem.

---

object doyou NOTobserve thedefect)---

---

---

Where in theobjectare the defects.Where do youobservethe defectiveobjects

----

(where doyou NOTobserve thedefect)---

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When did theobjectsor the d efects attheobjects firstappear.Hour,circumstance?

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(when didyou NOTobservethem)---

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How many or whatpercentage of defectiveobjects, or defects per objectdo you observe.Increasing ? Size?

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In the first column we fill in, with a few words, what precisely we canobsrve. A good d efinit ion of the problem is of great help in solving it .

The second column is of great importance. Here we look for contrast.If there are several m achines and on e has the pr oblem, here we writ edown what is not wrong with the other machines, even though theycould have the same problem. Or if it is just one machine, we try tocontrast its problem with its prior functioning: what do we observenow but did not observe before. Or we could ask ourselves what waswrong sometime in the past, but is not the case now. Or what couldreasonably go wrong, but is not the case now. Also we establish limits.The problem could be bigger or smaller, we state what we could haveobserved, but did not . The information in t his column permit s us tolook for differences of all kinds.



In the third column we fill in peculiarities and differences, whenlooking at the first two columns. We write down what distinguishesthat what we have written in the first column from that written in thesecond column (But we do not mention causes or effects).

In the fourth column we write down the change. When did each of theitems, written down in the first column, change realted t o t hepeculiarity noted in the third column. Under what circumstances did itchange.

When we have filled our the form completely we state all possiblechanges that could correspond with the d ata on thi s spreadsheet.These changes have to comply wi th the "wrong" column, the "NOTwrong" column , t he "peculiarit ies" column and the "change" colum n. If a "change" does not correspond to these items, it is not one of thepossible causes.Having d one that, we should be able t o state t he most probable cause.The cause is either the change itself or the change that permitted thecause to act.The next step is to think: With this most probable cause, shouldn't wesee other changes caused by it?Now we look for these other changes. If we do observe them, then our most probable cause is right. We now should verify this, we shouldobserve the probable cause.

Sudden Trouble with Persons

A problem with persons is a change, a deviation of the acting, of theperformance, of a person, or a group of persons, from what isexpected; and we would like to know the cause.We use the same method described under "Sudden Problems"; but it ismore dif ficult to work wit h people than wit h ananimate objects. Thefollowing comments will help you in anlyzing problems with persons.Problems with people often are not a single problem but a list of problems. Analyze the biggest problem first.

It is nearly imp ossible t o suddenly change t he character of a person,so we work by changing the environment.

Here are some typical difficulties when working with persons, whichwe should avoid:

· we m ake generalizations

· we jump to conclusions

· we do'nt really want to see the problem

· we are highly emotional



· we present our beliefs as facts

· we hear opinions, not facts

· we believe we know all that the other persons thinks

· we use inform ation that is not quite correct

· oft en the probl en is vage, inprecise, and find ing facts g eneratesemotions

When stating the "problem", t here is a t endency t o state conclusions or opinions and not the acts t hat h ave been observed. For instance: Johnhas lost int erest in his wor k (instead, we should state specifically andin detail, what is observable, what he does wrong).The incorrect statement of the problem or an incorrect entry in the"wrong" column will m ake it very hard t o f ind t he change and then thecause.In t he "peculiarit ies" column we should onl y state dif ferences related tothe environment, not differences of the person whose activity we areanalyzing. Other persons may be part of the environment of the firstperson. If they acted different, that is a corrrect "peculiarity".Often persons do n ot react imm ediately t o changes, someti mes theythi nk about the changes and react l ater; sometim es only anaccumulation of changes makes t hem act dif fererentl y. With people weshould look for changes that ocurred some time before the effect (the

acting) was noted.Perons are not thi ngs. Therefore we should be careful before we tr ycorrections. We shoud be reasonably certain that we have the realcause and a good way of correcting it (without causing new problems).Resolving probl ems with persons is not easy, b ut if we analyzeunemotionally, and b ased on observable f acts, oft en we will besuccessfull.

All this is a very short summary. To apply this technique well, atraining course is needed. See the training courses at Kepner TregoeWorldwide (Ext erior link) .

Documents

The Habit of Thinking