Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
www.h2fcsupergen.com
Zeynep Kurban, PhDFCH2 Technical Conference 14th
March
The H2FC Hub: Identifying the
opportunities for Hydrogen and Fuel
Cells in the UK
H2FC SUPERGENAims and Objectives
SUPERGEN is part of the UK Energy Programme’s Sustainable Power Generation and
Supply initiative (SUPERGEN).
that enables the application of hydrogen and fuel cells in the energy landscape
Transformational Research
of the roles and benefits of hydrogen and fuel cell technologies
Informing Stakeholders
between the academic research base and industry, builds partnerships across the sector
Building Networks
The Hydrogen and Fuel Cells (H2FC) SUPERGEN hub, funded by the Research Council’s UK Energy Programme(May 2012-April 2019).
Three primary functions:
Hub Research
21 UK + 8 International Universities, £20m over 7 years
CoreHubResearchUniversities
OtherUKUniversitieswithHubProjects
InternationalPartnerUniversities
H2FC Supergen Research Hub
Four evidence based White Papers
Launched at the London City Hall in
March 2017
low-carbon heat energy security future energy
systems
economic impact
for the UK
To inform key stakeholders, especially policy makers, of the roles and potential benefits of
hydrogen and fuel cell technologies for meeting UK energy objectives.
Methods
1. Reviews of the technical, academic and commercial literature.
2. Engagement with core industry stakeholders.
3. Targeted analyses (e.g. comparative analysis of heating technologies complemented by scenario building using UK Times Model)
UK CO2 reduction Targets (compared to 1990 levels): 80% CO2 reduction by 2050 50% reduction by 2025 and 57% by 2030.
Decarbonising Heat…
Hy4Heat
H21 Leeds City Gate Study
HyDeploy(Keele Uni.)
Hy4House
Liverpool Manchester
Cluster
Hydrogen Upstream of the
meter
£25m BEIS research and Innovation Programme
£10m NIC award to GDNOs led by NGN
Demonstration Studies
Future energy systems
Examine the potential contribution of hydrogen and fuel cell systems to: Transport.
Heat.
Electricity.
Consider the infrastructure requirements.
How might a transition to these systems occur?
Concludes that hydrogen and fuel cells:
are too important to neglect;
make decarbonisation easier; and,
need greater policy visibility.
H2FC Infrastructure
Least Cost: the lowest-cost method of achieving the GHG target based on input assumptions.
Critical Path: the hydrogen option is kept open to 2030 through small investments in infrastructure and road vehicles; deployment ramps up in 2050 for strategically important end uses (transport and electricity).
Gas Conversion: gas networks are converted to deliver hydrogen; homeowners choose between low-carbon heating and transport technologies primarily on cost.
Full Contribution: hydrogen is taken up across the economy; hydrogen boilers and hybrid heat pumps heat most houses by 2050; almost all road vehicles use fuel cells; substantial contributions from hydrogen in industry and electricity generation as well.
No Hydrogen: a counterfactual scenario that is the same as Least Cost, except that no hydrogen technologies are available.
Electrification: a counterfactual scenario with widespread electrification of end-use technologies that relies primarily on renewable generation.
Scenarios
Hydrogen consumption by sector, in the six scenarios to 2050
Least Cost: the lowest-cost method of achieving the GHG target based on input assumptions
Critical Path: deployment ramps up in 2050 for strategically important end uses (transport and electricity).
Full Contribution: hydrogen is taken up across the economy; 50% of end-use demand is met by hydrogen in 2050
No Hydrogen: a counterfactual scenario that is the same as Least Cost
Electrification: a counterfactual scenario with widespread electrification of end-use technologies that relies primarily on renewable generation.
Targeted analyses using UK Times Model
Final UK energy consumption in 2050, in the six scenarios
Energy conversion costs for different scenarios
1/10 of final energy consumption from H2
H2 ½ of final energy consumption from H2
gas networks converted to deliver H2
for strategically important end uses
Mostly electrical
Energy security
How might hydrogen and fuel cells affect energy security in the UK energy system? Can they improve it? Would they worsen it?
Conclusions:
Using hydrogen would not greatly change energy security, as measured by various indices – and the diversity of the energy system could increase.
Using hydrogen could reduce the impacts of volatile energy import prices.
The resilience of the UK electricity system could be increased by reducing the impacts of infrastructure damage (by natural incidents as well as malevolent interference).
Energy Security Definition(s)
cost to consumercost to society (taxpayer)
resiliencerobust to incidents robustness
long-term stability
long-term perspectivesecure investment framework
Cost to increase diversity and resource independence in 2050
All costs are relative to the smallest increase in costs required to meet the
UK 80% GHG reduction target in 2050 in an unconstrained scenario in the
UK TIMES Model (UKTM), relative to the reference scenario with no GHG
targets. So this unconstrained scenario has a cost = 1.0.
BaseHigh
diversityIndependence
High diversity and independence
Full contribution 2.3 2.3 6.0 6.3
Critical path 1.2 1.2 4.8 5.0
No hydrogen 1.1 1.2 4.8 5.0
Economic Impacts
An early assessment of the scale and type of impact hydrogen and fuel cell technologies could have on the UK macro-economy
Uses input-output modelling to examine economy-wide impacts of building new supply chains for these technologies and reducing supply chains for incumbent systems.
Considers economic (£m) and employment impacts (with Consumer Road Transport as an exemplar)
Wider issues such as skills and industrial clusters are also examined.
This is a preliminary study – there is much scope to develop the methodology to examine economic implications of energy technologies and an industrial strategy in the future.
What is a Multiplier?
Input-output - Multiplier Diagram
Relative values (UK) – Hydrogen
You are a potential hydrogen supplier
We burn hydrogen for heat (assume 100% conversion efficiency) Apply approximate fuel cell conversions (losses) to generate relative values for electricity
production and transport applicationsThat gives a modified hydrogen value ratio set of:
Heat Electricity Transport
Cost of Energy (based on efficiency of
device)
4.18p /kWh 13.86p /kWh 41p /kWh
Relative H2 value 1 1.6 3.9
Based on what you know consumers expect to pay for heat, electricity and transport,
In which market space are you most likely to make a good margin?
Not indicative of what H2 might cost
Approach: input-output modelling
Input-output data are produced as part of the UK National Accounts (ONS 2016), under United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA 1993).
The UK (industry by industry) input-output tables (2010): is a matrix describing the structure of the economy in a given year in terms of 103 industries (identified by the Standard Industrial Classification, SIC 2007).
Headline message of input-output modelling
A significant move away from current UK use of refined fuels in private transport towards hydrogen can yield a valuable increase in GDP and employment
The likely gains will come not only from the production and distribution of hydrogen in the UK but also from the range of service sector activities, including finance, involved in a potentially strong domestic supply chain.
Key driver of findings: the current supply chain for petrol and diesel is highly import-intensive.
Where will H2 come from?
Conclusions from input-output economic modelling
Importance of domestic (UK) supply chain linkages in delivering economic expansionthrough multiplier effects
If hydrogen supply could replicate the strong domestic upstream supply linkages of thecurrent UK gas and electricity supply sectors, opportunities for economic expansionthrough a hydrogen transport economy
However, much will depend on the continued role of fossil fuel extraction from the UK oiland gas extraction industry
Attention in development of the skills base in UK service industries
Potential additional impacts from private and public investment targeted at R&D,construction etc., but impacts may be time-limited (as opposed to on-going operational)
Recent publications
H2 & FC Uptake targets
UK in top 10 countries globally in terms of numbers of hydrogen and fuel cell publications
2nd only to Germany in terms of average citations per article.
Ref: The role and status of hydrogen and fuel cells across the global energy system, I. Staffell et al.
ISCF – Innovate have issued an EOI (closing date 18 April) inviting proposals on the potential future challenges to get support through the Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund
Mission based innovation:
Prof Marina Mazzucato (UCL)
IEA Hydrogen Tasks:1) Market Deployment & Pathways to Scale
2) Hydrogen in Industry and Buildings
Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund
Download the four White Papers:
www.h2fcsupergen.com
Contact me or authors:
Editors and authors:
Paolo AgnolucciOluwafisayo Alabi
Naser Al-MufachiPaul E. DoddsPaul EkinsPhilipp GrünewaldAdam HawkesNick HughesJohn T. S. IrvineOwain JonesTia KansaraZeynep KurbanFrancis Li
Thank you!
Niall Mac DowellWill McDowallLazaros PapageorgiouJonathan RadcliffeDaniel ScammanNilay ShahMartin J. SmithIain StaffellRobert Steinberger-WilckensKaren TurnerAnthony Velazquez AbadKate Ward
