The growing energy and carbon footprint of China’s changing diet

8/9/2019 The growing energy and carbon footprint of Chinas changing diet

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The groing energ! an"

carbon footprint of#hina$s changing "ietPh% can"i"ate research proposal

acob 'a(ins

September 27, 2013

Super)isors* #hunbo +a

Ste)en Schilii


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Presentation outline

-ac(groun"

Problem statement

Aims an" ob.ecti)es

+etho"olog! an" "ata

Stage 1 / %eterminants of "ietar! change

Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2

Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2

or( pro"ucts an" outcomes


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-ac(groun" Problem statement

Aims an" ob.ecti)es







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ester -ron, orl" atch nstitute,1445

'ighl! criticie" an" contro)ersial

6ho ill fee" #hina8

Posite" #hina oul" be unableto pro)i"e for its onpopulation, ithout ta(ing

aa! from the rest of theorl"

9uestione" e:isting foo" pro.ections

Stan"ar" metho"s

Accounting

Assumptions


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Since 147;, #hina$s econom! gron rapi"l!,


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#onsumption implications

Research on #hina$s groing foo" consumption* Arable lan" @a!lor, Steinfel" et alB 2005, Pimentel 2011C

ater suppl! @Duan an" 'ubace( 2007, 'ubace(, Duan et alB2004C

Research on #hina$s increasing energ! "eman"s*

Energ! intensit! @+a an" Stern 200;, hao, +a et alB 2010C

#2emissions @iu, Deng et alB 2012, Su an" Ang 2012C

Research gap*hat role "oes #hinese foo" consumption ha)e in

energ! "eman" an" #2pro"uction


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Dreenhouse gas

emissions b! sector

@Source* Emission %atabase for Dlobal Atmospheric Research )ersion 3B2, fast trac( 2000 pro.ectC


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Aims an" ob.ecti)es







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Problem statement

#hina$s groing foo" consumption is anticipate" toincrease o)erall energ! "eman" an" #2 emissions

"omesticall! an" internationall!B

t is unclear, hoe)er, ho increase" consumptionof higher >ualit! foo"s ill further increase energ!re>uirements an" #2pro"uctionB


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Aims an" ob.ecti)es







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Pro.ect Aims

%etermine the increase" energ! "eman" an" #2 emissions %omestic pro"uction

nternational imports

-ase" on increase"foo" consumption,specificall!*

?ruit

Fegetables

%air!

+eat


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Pro.ect b.ecti)es

Anser the >uestions of*

1B 'o ill #hina$s continue" economic groth alter the "iet an" foo"consumption patterns of its population

2B 'o ill #hina$s changing "iet "irectl! an" in"irectl! affect energ!

"eman"s an" resultant #2emissions

3B 'o ill #hina$s changing "iet affect the energ! "eman"s an" emissionsof the (e! nations responsible for #hina$s agricultural imports


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Aims an" ob.ecti)es



Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2 Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2



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%eterminants of #hina$s

"ietar! change iterature re)ie E)aluating the "ri)ers of "ietar! change

Economic, cultural, technological, structural

Assessment of metho"s an" assumptions

9uantif! "eterminants S!nthesie" from e:isting literature

%e)elop a range of scenarios

e)el of "etail specific for later stages ofthis research


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+o"elling "irect an"

in"irect effects nputGoutput mo"el using* #hina -S 2007 inputGoutput tables @135 sectorsC

E#%G?A Agricultural utloo( 2013G2022

#hina -S 2012 #hina Energ! Statistical Hearboo(

- 2013 #hina Energ! %ataboo( P## 200I D'D Dui"elines

Stage 1 "eterminants use" to estimate technicalcoefficients for 2022

Supplemente" ith computable general e>uilibrium@#DEC mo"elling


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nputGoutput mo"el

Sample

Selecte" foo"pro.ection scenarios

n"ustr! sectors"isaggregate"

?inal "eman"change" base" on

pro.ections Sol)e for ne

interme"iate"eman"s


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Aims an" ob.ecti)es







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#hina$s top agricultural

import suppliers

@Source* DTS, Dlobal Tra"e Atlas "atabase, JST# +ar 2011C


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nternational implications

#hina$s top 5 import suppliers of agricultural imports Jnite" States

-rail

Argentina

European Jnion

Australia

Stage 2 mo"els e:pan"e" to multi regional inputGoutputK#DE mo"elsto incorporate #hina$s agricultural import suppliers

DTAP ; %atabase or 2005 E#% inputGoutput tables

Ph!sical units of energ! an" emissions lin(e" to international impacts


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Aims an" ob.ecti)es



Stage 2 / #hina$s pro.ecte" foo" energ! an" #2 Stage 3 / mporte" foo" energ! "eman" an" #2



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or(ing papers

Paper 1 9uantification of the "eterminants of #hina$s changing "iet s!nthesie"

from the bo"! of literature

Paper 2

E)aluation of ho the changes in #hina$s "iet ill affect energ! supplies an"

#2emissions un"er "ifferent foo" consumption scenarios

Paper 3

Presentation of the changes to international energ! sectors an" thegeospatial "istribution of ph!sical energ! "eman" an" #2generationassociate" ith #hina$s changing "iet in its top agricultural import suppliers


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E:pecte" outcomes

#hina "iligent about securing its foo" suppl! Agriculture onl! 3= of #hina$s imports, !et comprise" 4= of the global

agricultural tra"e

J(raine leasing #hina up to 3 million hectares of lan" @5= of J(raineC

JBSB por( pro"ucer, Smithfiel" ?oo"s, purchase" b! #hinese firmShuanghui ntl for L7B1 billion

#hina ill not 6star)e the orl" to fee" itself8 #hina$s energ! "eman" an" #2emissions increasing

hat ill the implications of #hina$s changing "ietbe on energ! an" #2, both "omesticall! an"

internationall!


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The growing energy and carbon footprint of China’s changing diet