The Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array: Status & Plans

Mike McPhadenOCO Review3-5 Sept 2008

RAMA

PIRATA

TAO/TRITON

Global Tropical Moored Buoy Array:A coordinated, sustained, multi-national effort to develop and implement moored buoy observing systems for climate research and forecasting throughout the global tropics

A contribution to GOOS, GCOS, and GEOSS

Indian OceanRAMA

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JJA

The MonsoonThe Monsoon

Half the world’s population depends on monsoon rainfall for agriculture

ITCZ

Indian Ocean Climate Science Drivers Seasonal monsoons

Cyclones and synoptic scale events

Intraseasonal Madden Julian Oscillation ( ENSO, west coast US weather, hurricanes)

Interannual variations: the Indian Ocean Dipole

Decadal variability

Warming trends since the 1970s

Complex ocean circulation

Poorly understood biogeochemistryIndian Ocean Dipole

Plan developed by the CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel in 2004 as part of IndOOS

Basin scale, upper ocean (~500 m) focus.

Design supported by numerical model observing system simulation studies.

RAMA

McPhaden et al, 2008: RAMA. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., accepted.

RAMA: Present Status

47% of sites occupied by end of 2008 (22 of 46; 15 involve PMEL)

Resource Formula:

Partners provide ship time(~150-200 days)

NOAA provides most equipment

2006 Indian Ocean Dipole

Neutral=±0.5°C

Comparison of Oct-Nov 2004 (Normal) & Oct-Nov 2006 (Dipole)

Normal Dipole

Subsurface Temperature leads SST:A Source of Indian Ocean Dipole Predictability?

Horii et al, 2008, GRL

Thermocline temperature anomalies mediated by wind forced upwelling Kelvin waves.

Dynamics of Wyrtki JetsDynamics of Wyrtki Jets

€

ut = −pxρ + τ0x( )−τ−Hx( )

ρ + R

Overbar: depth integral from surface to H=175 m

~0

Use RAMA, Argo, QuikSCAT data to assess linear dynamical balance at 0°, 80.5°E (f=0):

Nagura & McPhaden, 2008, GRL

Oct 2004 Sept 2006

Zonal velocity

Zonal transport

Cyclone NargisCyclone Nargis

Qscat Wind 28 Apr 2008

TMI/AMSR SST 2 May 2008

15°N, 90°E

Spot Hourly Data (~ 8 per day)

International Cooperation

• USA (NOAA) and Indonesia (DKP and BPPT) sign MOU in 2007

• China (SOA) and Indonesia (DKP) sign MOU in 2007

• USA (NOAA) and Japan (JAMSTEC) sign MOU in 2008

• USA (NOAA) and India (MoES) sign MOU in 2008

• U. Paris and U. Capetown are committing ship time to expand RAMA into SW Indian Ocean/MOU’s under discussion

Tsunami/RAMA cruise RV Baruna Jaya III

Sept 2007

RAMA Field Work 2008

7 cruises, 6 ships, 5 countries ~100 sea days

In 2009: 130 sea days available (73 from India), enough to add

9 more ATLAS moorings31 or 46 sites (67% complete)

Atlantic OceanPIRATA

PIRATA

Courtesy, P. Chang

Partners

Brazil (INPE & DHN) & France (IRD & Meteo-France) provide logistic support & most ship time: ~300 sea days during 2004-08

USA (NOAA) provides most mooring equipment & data processing

Focus: Tropical Atlantic Climate Focus: Tropical Atlantic Climate Variability--Variability--1)1) Atlantic meridional modeAtlantic meridional mode2)2) Atlantic warm eventsAtlantic warm events3)3) Climatic conditions in Climatic conditions in

“hurricane alley”“hurricane alley”

NE Extension begins 2006-7

SW Extension begins 2005

SE Extension begins 2006

Status in 2008Status in 2008Status in 2004Status in 2004

CLIVAR/GOOS Review of PIRATA, 2006: “..the main backbone of the Tropical Atlantic Observing System”

Pilot ResearchMoored Array in the

Tropical Atlantic

PIRATA Introduced October 1998

Pilot ResearchMoored Array in the

Tropical Atlantic

PIRATA Introduced October 1998

Prediction and Research Moored Array in the

Tropical Atlantic

PIRATA Redefined August 2008

Pacific OceanTAO/TRITON

TAO/TRITON Array & the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle

Implemented 1985-94 as part of TOGA

Presently a U.S./Japan collaboration

Transition to operations at NDBC underway

Current ConditionsCurrent Conditions

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/

Status--

FY 05: NDBC assumes responsibility for TAO management

FY 06: TAO DAC transferred to NDBC

FY 07: TAO field operations transferred to NDBC

FY 07-08 Initial tests of NDBC prototype ATLAS refresh mooring system (COTS)

FY 09: If prototypes work, parallel testing next FY 09: If prototypes work, parallel testing next to legacy ATLAS in Pacific for 1 yrto legacy ATLAS in Pacific for 1 yr

FY 10: Evaluation and verification of refresh FY 10: Evaluation and verification of refresh ATLAS system performanceATLAS system performance

FY 11-12: capitalization and replacement of all FY 11-12: capitalization and replacement of all 55 legacy ATLAS with refreshed ATLAS55 legacy ATLAS with refreshed ATLAS

TAO TransitionThe Plan: 3-year transition starting in FY 05 and

ending in FY 07CONCLUSION: TAO Transition will take at least 8 years to complete, not 3.

QUESTIONS:

1) What went wrong with the original plan?

2) Will the transition be successful?

3) Is TAO transition a good model for future transitions?

4) Should the climate community be concerned?