TheGlobalFoodChallengeRosamondNaylor

Director,ProgramonFoodSecurityandtheEnvironment;Professor,DepartmentofEnvironmentalEarthSystemScience;WilliamWrigleySeniorFellow,FreemanSpogliInsAtutefor

InternaAonalStudiesandWoodsInsAtutefortheEnvironment

Challengesforthe21stCentury

••HowtofeedHowtofeedamorepopulousamorepopulousandandricherworldinthedecadesricherworldinthedecadestocome?tocome?

‐Withglobalclimatechange?‐Withglobalclimatechange?‐Withoutdestroyingthe‐Withoutdestroyingthe

environmentintheprocess?environmentintheprocess?

••HowtoprovidefoodaccesstoHowtoprovidefoodaccesstothe~1billionpeoplewhoremainthe~1billionpeoplewhoremainchronicallyhungry?chronicallyhungry?

••HowHowtoaddressfoodinsecuritytoaddressfoodinsecuritywithinwithintradiAonalnaAonaltradiAonalnaAonalsecuritycircles?securitycircles?

FoodSecurityFoodSecurity

WhenallpeopleatallWhenallpeopleatallAmeshavephysicalandAmeshavephysicalandeconomicaccesstotheeconomicaccesstothefoodnecessarytoleadafoodnecessarytoleadahealthyandproducAvehealthyandproducAvelife.life.

‐FAO‐FAO

WorldBankesAmates:WorldBankesAmates:

Pop<$1/day:15%Pop<$1/day:15%

Pop<$2/day:50%Pop<$2/day:50%

Millions of people

2004-6 2009* Asia and the Pacific 566 642 Sub-Saharan Africa 212 265 Latin America and the Caribbean 45 53 Near East and North Africa 34 42 Developed countries 15 15

World Total 872 1,017

* Estimated by FAO. SOURCE: FAO State of Food Insecurity in the World (2009)

Undernourishment in 2004-6 and 2009, by region

Crop‐BasedBiofuelsBoom

40%ofUScorncropnowusedforethanol40%ofUScorncropnowusedforethanol

AgriculturalIntensificaCon

Plants

Soil

Gas EmissionsMicrobes

Leaching

NO3-

NH3, NO, N2O, N2

N Fertilizer

North China Plains: +227 kg/N/ha/year

West Kenya: -52 kg/N/ha/year

(Src: Vitousek et al, Science, 2009)

SocialCostsofSocialCostsofExcessNutrientsExcessNutrients

Joey’sCornandCaYleOperaAon

• Cornyields:240bu/acre

– 4xageneraAonago

• CaYleweightgain4lb/dayw/hormoneinplants

– ~2xageneraAonago

• 175daygrowout– vs.280ageneraAonago

IntensificaAonofAnimalProducAon

Linksto:

•Incomegrowth

•Technology

•Globaltrade

•Fisheriesdecline

AnInconvenientTrough*

•GloballivestockproducAonaccountsfor~18%oftotalgreenhousegasemissions(CO2,N20,CH4)‐‐Landusechange,ferAlizerforfeeds,waste/gas•Stressonlandandwaterresources;nutrienteffluents

*(Source: Steinfeld et al (2007) for research; Atlantic for phrase)

• HowmuchlandwouldittaketotransiAonfromgrain‐tograss‐fedbeefintheUS?• AssumingcurrentconsumpAonofbeefandcurrentproducAvityof

pasture(nodairy)

• 61%morelandrequiredforcaYleundergrass‐fedregime• (~100millionmoreacres)

• Ortomaintainsamerangeland:38%‐66%dropinbeefconsumpAon

Grass‐fedBeef:Grass‐fedBeef:TheLandTradeoffTheLandTradeoff

FeedCrops:TheWaterTradeoffFeedCrops:TheWaterTradeoff

Athirdoftheworld’spopulaAonwillsufferfromwaterscarcityin2025

Physicalscarcity:Notenoughwater.

EconomicScarcity:Noinfrastructuretomakewateravailabletofarmers.

Source: IWMI

WaterscarcityforfoodproducCon?WaterscarcityforfoodproducCon?

Aquaculture:Aquaculture:IntensiveFishProducConIntensiveFishProducCon

FeedlotsoftheSea?

60 tidal cycles6 tidal cycles

WhichFishisBesttoBuy?

LandExpansionforAgricultureLandExpansionforAgriculture

•Brazilsoy:81%•AsiaoilpalmAsia: 92%

%achievedthroughareaexpansion%achievedthroughareaexpansion(1995‐2009)(1995‐2009)

• 42 million ha in 2008-09• Land speculation when financial markets have low yields• 75% land sales in Sub Saharan Africa• Countries with weak land institutions, “under-utilized”

e.g., Sudan, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar

WestPapua,IndonesiaWestPapua,Indonesia““FeedtheWorldProjectFeedtheWorldProject””

Threattoecosystemservices

GlobalClimateChangeGlobalClimateChange

HeatWaveinRussiaHeatWaveinRussia’’sPrimeWheatRegion,sPrimeWheatRegion,20102010

Src: Battisti, UW 2010

IPCC Predictions: ~ 20 GCMs

Battisti and Naylor, Science, Jan 9 2009A1B

(IPCC Predictions, 4th assessment, 23 models, A1B scenario)

Agriculture‐Energy‐ClimateLinksAgriculture‐Energy‐ClimateLinks

EnergyandEnergyandclimateimplicaAonsofclimateimplicaAonsofhigh‐yielding,intensiveagriculture?high‐yielding,intensiveagriculture?

HypoxiafromHypoxiafromferAlizedcorn(ethanol)orfromoilspill?ferAlizedcorn(ethanol)orfromoilspill?

LetLet’’sputourinnovaCvemindstosputourinnovaCvemindstoworkwork

• Technology

• Management

• Policy

• ConsumpAon

Solar‐PoweredDripIrrigaConSolar‐PoweredDripIrrigaCon

Solar pumping:•Direct-coupled (no batteries),longer lifetime•Wide range of specs•Immune to oil prices•Simple and safe

Drip Irrigation:•Efficient water use; uniformity•Labor-saving•New market products

300N 0N

ManuelLopezdeLara‐VillaJuarez,YaquiValley,Mexico(photo:IvanOrAz‐Monasterio,CIMMYT)

NOvershootinYaquiValley

• U.S.FarmBill(producAonvs.conservaAonincenAves)• U.S.biofuelspolicy• U.S.aquaculturepolicy(CA,Federal)• Indonesia’sfoodandagriculturalpolicies• China’sruraldevelopmentpolicies

ExamplesofPolicyInvolvementExamplesofPolicyInvolvement

Thegoodnewsisthatwe’redrivingaMercedes…..